42% of Likely Voters Plan to Vote Democratic, 41% say Republican, This November

The latest
Reason-Rupe poll finds an Democrats and Republicans
essentially tied on the generic House ballot. Among likely voters,
42 percent say they plan to vote Democratic while 41 percent say
Republican. Likely voters are those who are registered and say they
are certain or very likely to vote in the midterms.

One of the reasons for the tight ballot is that Republicans are
more motivated to vote this November than Democrats or
Independents. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 89 percent
are registered and say they are certain or very likely to vote,
compared to 67 percent of Democrats. Fifty-nine percent of
independents are registered and likely to vote.

When likely voters are offered the choice of which party they
would prefer control Congress, 34 percent opt for “neither” party,
33 percent say Republicans, and 29 percent say Democrats. Part of
the reason for this Republican edge is that even though 54 percent
of non-partisan independents would rather “neither” party control
Congress; more prefer Republican to Democratic control 26 to 12
percent respectively.

Offering the choice for voters to say they prefer “neither”
party control Congress provides important nuance to their
congressional ballot choices. For instance, at first glance 56
percent of 18-29 year olds say they’ll vote Democratic and 36
percent will vote Republican. However, their Democratic support is
tenuous with only 30 percent favoring Democratic control of
Congress, 28 percent favoring Republican control, and fully 41
percent saying neither party should control Congress. These results
echo earlier findings showing that millennials
view Democrats as the better of two bad
options. (Additional  examples can be found in
the crosstabs).

Nearly four out of 10 likely voters, 39 percent, say the economy
is the number one issue influencing how they’ll vote in the
November elections. Perhaps surprisingly, education is the second
most important issue to voters (16 percent), followed by foreign
policy (15 percent), immigration (10 percent), and health care (10
percent).

When asked which economic issue is most important to their vote,
three primary groups emerge: 24 percent say government spending, 23
percent say jobs, and another 23 percent say the gap between rich
and poor. Following those, 13 percent said the budget deficit, 9
percent said taxes, and only 6 percent mentioned business
regulation was the most important economic issue for their
vote.

Issue priorities vary by partisanship. Four in 10 independents
and Republicans prioritize the economy compared to 28 percent of
Democrats. Conversely, Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans
to prioritize education—25 v 12 percent respectively, and 15
percent of independents. Conversely, independents and Republicans
are nearly twice as likely as Democrats to prioritize national
security (17 to 9 percent).

Young Americans are slightly more likely to say education (33%)
is most important to their vote this November than is the economy
(29%). Moving across older age cohorts, education as a priority
declines to 18 percent among 45-54 year olds and 8 percent among
seniors while importance of the economy rises to 35 percent.

Issue priorities also vary by race/ethnicity. Hispanics are
nearly twice as likely as Caucasians to say education is most
important to their vote this November (25 to 14 percent), the same
is true on immigration (20 to 10 percent respectively).
African-Americans are the most likely to identify education (36
percent) as most relevant to their vote followed by the economy
(31%). Caucasians primarily place weight on the economy (36%) and
national security (16%).

Economic issue prioritization also varies across partisanship.
The top three economic priorities for Republican voters are
government spending (32%), jobs (19%), and the budget deficit
(17%). But for Democrats, the top three are reducing the income gap
(37%), jobs (26%), followed by government spending (16%).
Independents rank jobs (32%) then government spending (26%)
followed by the income gap (17%).

* If we define both groups as those who prefer smaller
government with fewer services, but libertarian-leaners as those
who say government should not promote traditional values and
conservative leaners as those who say government should promote
traditional values, they each comprise 27 percent of the
sample.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International,
conducted live interviews with 1000 adults on cell phones (500) and
landlines (500) August 6-10, 2014. The poll’s margin of error is
+/-3.7%. Full poll results can be found here,
including poll toplines (pdf) 
and crosstabs (xls).