Poll: If We Arm Syrian Rebels Americans Say 78% Chance Weapons Will Be Used Against US Eventually

Americans are becoming
increasingly skeptical that strategic US military interventions
abroad won’t eventually backfire. The latest
Reason-Rupe poll finds that 55 percent of Americans oppose
arming Syrian rebels in efforts to fight against ISIS, while 35
percent support such action.

One reason Americans oppose sending weapons to the rebels may be
that they believe there’s a 78 percent chance those weapons will
eventually be turned around and used against American soldiers or
US allies.

Public reluctance to arm Syrian rebels to fight ISIS may be
indicative of a broader hesitancy to be as involved in the Middle
Eastern region. Reason-Rupe finds only 28 percent of Americans want
to increase US military presence around the world. Another 36
percent want to decrease American global military presence, and
another third are content with the status quo.

Perhaps one reason Americans aren’t more supportive of expanding
US involvement is disillusionment with US handling of the 2003 Iraq
War. Only 14 percent believe the war actually reduced the threat of
terrorism; another 38 percent think it instigated even more
terrorism. Forty-five percent think the Iraq war had little effect
protecting US citizens from terrorist threats.

Foreign policy hawkishness cuts across demographic groups and
party lines but is certainly more pronounced among Republicans. In
fact, Republicans are nearly twice as likely as both Democrats and
independents to favor increasing US military presence
abroad (41% versus 20% and 26% respectively). In reverse, Democrats
and independents are almost twice as likely as Republicans to want
to decreasemilitary presence (42% and 39% versus 25%
respectively.)

Consistent with findings that young
people are the only group to oppose air strikes against ISIS,
Americans under 34 are about half as likely (21%) as Americans over
55 (37%) to desire an expanded global military presence. Instead,
41 percent of younger Americans want to reduce US military presence
abroad compared to 27 percent of those over 55. A third of both
groups support the status quo.

Opposition to arming Syrian rebels, however, is generally
non-partisan. Sixty-one percent of Republicans, 58 percent of
independents, and 51 percent of Democrats oppose the US providing
weapons to rebel groups to fight ISIS.

Again, younger people are more skeptical of intervention. Only
28 percent of 18-29 year olds support arming Syrian rebels, and 62
percent oppose doing so. In contrast, 45 percent of seniors favor
providing weapons and 47 percent oppose.

Americans are beginning to believe there are limits to the US’s
ability to engineer favorable outcomes through military
interventions abroad. There are fears that weapons we provide to
assumed allies will be the very weapons we are fighting against in
the future. There are also serious concerns that our past military
strategies have not achieved their desired outcomes, and have not
reduced the threat of terrorism.

The Reason-Rupe national telephone poll, executed
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International,
conducted live interviews with 1004 adults on cell phones (503) and
landlines (501) October 1-6, 2014. The poll’s margin of error
is +/-3.8%. Full poll results can be found here including
poll toplines (pdf) 
and crosstabs (xls).