Confused by today’s whipsawed market action, which as much about month end flows, as it is about newsflow, post Powell jitters, breakevens, inflationary fears, and of course, whatever it is that Gartman may be doing? You are not alone: in its intraday macro update, the bank that is also the world’s largest currency trader, had some (very) simple advice for its clients: “Don’t try to make sense of this.”
It then clarifies, and we use the term loosely: “Price action today has been messy to say the least. The shortest explanation is, it’s month end and so there is little point in making sense of the move.”
Still, it highlighting a few notable moves:
- Looking at broader markets, there’s a sense of risk reduction. It’s a sea of red in equities, yields and commodities. After discouraging signs in the DoE inventory report, the bears have taken WTI through one big figure to trade below $62, which seems to be weighing on energy shares. Some market observers have attributed this to be the trigger behind equities turning red. Elsewhere, bear flatteners have characterized the yield curve in the US, while European yields have sold off across the board.
- Month end models suggested USD buying today, and we can see that has clearly played out. GBPUSD is the biggest underperformer today. The pair has traded through three big figures since the EU withdrawal agreement draft suggested further Brexit drama. The pair now trades at 1.3790, although major supports are approaching around 1.3765-1.3780 (converging 55d MA, trend line and February low). USDCAD meanwhile is above 1.28 for the first time since the Christmas period. The oil rout is unlikely to help and we could see a move towards 1.29
- GBP performance in the crosses is arguably worse. GBPJPY has squeezed through the 200d MA at 147.78 to trade at 147.17 currently, levels we haven’t seen since September 2017. This has helped JPY be today’s top performer against USD, with the pair trading at 106.73 at time of print. 106.60-70 big level on the downside to break, contrasting sharply to CHF performance. USDCHF is back to testing the neckline of a major double top around 0.9440.
What is however most troubling – and fascinating – by far, is that having gone short overnight, Gartman appears to be right this time.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/2oGJXtd Tyler Durden