EURUSD jumped 40 pips on Reuters headlines that sources suggest The ECB is “broadly comfortable” with the market anticipating rate-hikes starting in Q1 2019.
“The only point in extending the program would be to push out rate hike expectations and anchor the yield curve,” one of the sources said.
“But that can be done with other tools, like a more precise forward guidance or more long-term refinancing operations.”
The reaction was swift, but for now only modest in EURUSD…
Though Bund Yields are moving…
Additionally, Reuters reports that sources say that policymakers are shifting their debate to the trajectory of rate-hikes as the doves begin to accept the inevitable end of QE this year…
“I haven’t seen a serious case for another extension,” a second source said.
“But we need to carefully manage rate expectations, especially given the trade and fx risk.”
Though the doves on the committee are concerned about stoking rate-hike expectations).
“With any move we take, markets will start pricing the next one and you could see quite a sharp rise in the (expected) rate path,” a third source said.
“These expectations need to be very firmly anchored by the time we take the first policy decision.”
Smells like another strawman to us…
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