While Gartman may pretend it never happened, it did three weeks ago, when after the April payrolls report, the “world-renowned commodity guru” was stopped out of his short 10Y Treasury position put on just two days earlier, with a 2.92% stop loss level. As we duly documented at the time, the 10Y yield tumbled below 2.91% before rebounding. Gartman clearly pretended not to see it.
So fast forwarding to today, in his latest note overnight Gartman writes that “as the news of the cancellation of the US/North Korean summit meeting “hit” the capital markets, the bid for US treasury securities as a safe haven forced us to cut back on our short position a bit as a defensive action.”
A “bit” but not all the way, but that may soon change. Recall, Gartman’s original reco:
Short of One Unit of the US Ten Year Note future: Wednesday, May 2nd…remembering that the bond market is now two years into a bear market and that the supposed line-in-the-sand at 3% will prove ephemeral as the ten-year trades to 4% and perhaps 5% over the course of the next two or three years… we sold the ten-year note future, willingly risking the yield to drop to 2.92 from 2.98. As we wrote, the ten-year note future was trading 119 11/32nds. It is 119 18/32nds presently and so where we were pleasantly profitable yesterday we are behind by 7/32nds
Well, in light of today’s crash in Italian and Spanish bonds, and Breakeven-back breaking plunge in oil, the 10Y yield has tumbled below 2.93%, and less than one basis point from Gartman’s stop loss, which at this rate should be triggered in a few minutes. We can only assume that this time Gartman will not pretend it never happened…
Finally, some bad news for the bears: after turning bullish just over a week ago, Gartman is once again thinking about bearish:
We are not yet of a mind to become bearish of shares for usually it takes this Index rising to 75-80 and then turning lower for us to do so, but we are concerned that the market has gone from over-sold back to neutrality and now seems to be losing momentum to the upside.
As he concludes, “Forewarned is indeed forearmed.”
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