In what some have interpreted as a gesture of contempt toward NATO, President Putin allegedly crossed briefly into Estonian airspace, on route to this week’s summit in Helsinki without asking permission, or even filing a flight plan, according to the New York Times.
Putin’s jet, which was accompanied by another Russian plane, reportedly traveled through Estonian air space for less than a minute – not long enough to provoke a response from Estonia, but enough to send a message. The NYT described Putin’s crossing as “a victory” for the Russian president (echoing the media’s claims about the Trump-Putin summit) even though some analysts have argued that it could’ve been a last-minute expedient employed by Putin’s pilot.
Russian jets routinely dip into Estonian air space without warning: Such incidents happen once or twice a month – and even more often when tensions between Russia and NATO are elevated, analysts said.
For more than a decade, Russian military planes have regularly zipped through the edges of NATO airspace over the Baltic Sea off Estonia’s coast, in daring, high-stakes runs that taunt the alliance’s air defenses.
While flying from Russia to Finland on Monday morning, Mr. Putin’s presidential plane entered NATO airspace without clearance over a portion of the Baltic Sea that is often the site of Russian military jet fly-bys, the Estonian military said on Tuesday.
But this particular incident received international attention from NATO military hawks who view Estonia as an important battleground in the ongoing battle to contain Russia. The former Soviet Republic which lies right on Russia’s border, has in recent years grown increasingly wary about signs of Russian aggression as the Russian military often carries out its military exercises along the border. Because of these threats, both Estonian and US have warned that Estonia could be a target for Putin’s “expansionary” aims.
This has led to a military buildup in Estonia that Putin, in turn, has denounced as unnecessary and unprovoked NATO aggression.
Circling back to Putin’s flight, Estonian authorities monitored the Russian planes as they traveled near Vaindloo, an Estonian island, until they exited Estonian airspace. The flights could also be seen on publicly available flight tracking websites. The Estonians then released a statement about the illegal border crossing.
Mr. Putin’s Ilyushin-96 airplane, en route from Moscow to Helsinki, Finland’s capital, passed through NATO airspace for about 50 seconds on Monday morning, said Roland Murof, a spokesman for the Estonian military. The plane crossed about 1.5 nautical miles, or 1.7 miles, into Estonian territory.
It flew with a transponder turned on but without having filed a flight plan or contacting Estonian air traffic control, as is required for both military and civilian aircraft, Mr. Murof said.
The Kremlin did not respond on Tuesday to questions about the flight path, including whether the entry into NATO airspace was intentional or pilot error.
The plane flew near Vaindloo, an Estonian island where Russian military and government planes frequently violate the airspace, raising alarms and rattling nerves, Estonian officials and analysts say. The island is a hot spot in the aerial games of chicken between Russia and NATO.
Roland Murof, a spokesman for the Estonian government, said Putin’s decision to fly through Estonian airspace without filing a flight plan could’ve been intended as “an opening statement, of sorts” before the summit.
Mr. Murof said it remained unclear why the presidential plane had passed through NATO airspace without clearance before the summit meeting.
The flight, he said, like the regular fighter-jet incursions in the same area, could have been intended as an opening statement of sorts for the meeting. It would demonstrate what the Russians see as NATO’s indecisiveness in the Baltic Sea.
“That’s one way of interpreting it, yes,” he said.
But an independent analyst warned against jumping to conclusions, saying pilots sometimes venture into Estonian airspace briefly just to save time.
But Kadri Liik, a senior policy analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations, cautioned that not all air border incursions in Estonia were politically hued. Russian military and government planes, she said, sometimes enter Estonian airspace “just to take a shortcut” across awkwardly shaped, post-Soviet airspace borders.
Air incursions picked up after the Ukraine crisis in 2014. President Barack Obama chose Estonia as the site for a speech offering reassurances of the alliance’s commitment to a common defense after the Russian military moves in Ukraine, to the south.
The airborne game of tag, usually played with fighter jets, underscores what analysts, and certainly many Russian officials, interpret as a vulnerability in that commitment.
Of course, Russians can fly through Estonian airspace without worrying too much about the diplomatic consequences because of what’s known as “asymmetry of interests”. That is, NATO would be reluctant to respond with violence for fear of provoking a war with Russia. Because of this “Russia is willing to take more risks” according to Western commentators, although the same clearly goes for the numerous NATO provocations that Russia has alleged in recent years.
NATO pilots who encounter Russian planes can set off flares or show off their weapons – but they wouldn’t fire upon the jets unless the provocations become extreme.
Indeed, even if Putin launched a military invasion of Estonia, it’s likely its allies in NATO would opt for more economic sanctions, rather than risk the outbreak of World War III.
In either case, perhaps Estonia should consider printing up another batch of those “how to prepare for war with Russia” leaflets.
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