Fleshwound or Death blow for bonds?
Yields spiked by the most since Nov 2016 (the day of and following President Trump’s election).
NOTE – After 1430ET, bond were suddenly bid (and stocks sold off).
30Y yields spiked to the highest since Sept 2014…
10Y yields spiked to the highest since June 2011…
5Y yields spiked to the highest since Oct 2008…
The yield curve steepened dramatically…
All of which is fascinating given that Treasury Futures net speculative positioning is already at record shorts…
It appears bond yields were playing catch up with oil’s recent surge…
As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes, this yield move is entering the “danger zone” for stocks. The 30bps spike in the last 5 weeks falls into the cohort where average and median equity performance has been negative over the following five weeks. Do with that information what you will, but realize that with this kind of price action the bond market is not the equity market’s friend.
The entire global developed sovereign bond market saw yields surge… (will be a bloodbath in Japan tonight)
Except, Italian bond yields tumbled 14bps on hopes that the made up projections with regard future growth and deficits was enough to satisfy Brussels…
And before we leave the bond market, we must note one potential additional factor of today’s ugliness as Comcast’s massive IG issue started trading and dominated the market – with a solid bid (were marginal TSY holders rotating into Comcast)…
Corporate bond trading volume is 35% above average today as the market swallows the Comcast bonds. All the top 10 most-traded bonds today are Comcast debt. It usually happens that new issues dominate the Trace volume data, but such was the size of yesterday’s deal that it’s boosting the whole market.
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Ok enough of that carnage…
Stocks rallied… with Small Caps outperforming… the S&P fell back into the red but bounced…
NOTE – Stocks stalled at precisely the moment that the Nationwide Alert went off – 1418ET
On the week, Nasdaq and Trannies managed to get green before fading back red, Small Caps remain worst and Dow best…
Small Caps were the best performer soaring back towards their 100DMA before rolling over…
The Dow/Small Caps divergence closed modestly today…
Financials outperformed Tech again…
The dollar index soared today – along with bond yields – near its early September highs…
The Argentine Peso is up almost 10% in the last 3 days – its biggest 3-day gain ever…
But the Rand tumbled to 2-week lows…
Cryptos stumbled… again…
WTI rallied on the day but the dollar’s gains sent PMs and copper lower…
Crude inventories soared today and the initial drop in WTI made sense but then the algos ripped it dramatically higher…
Gold held just above $1200 but Silver tested and lost its 50DMA again…
Finally, we note that the last seven days have seen notable selling in the last 75 minutes of the day (obviously it hasn’t slowed the rally, but still notable)…
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