Voters in Germany’s economically dominant southern state of Bavaria delivered a stunning rebuke to the ruling Christian Social Union, in an election that underscored the evaporation of support for the parties in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition in Berlin.
With all eyes on Sunday’s Bavaria election, moments ago the first exit polls were published and showed a historic collapse for the ruling CSU party, which has ruled Bavaria continuously since 1957, and which saw its share of the vote collapse from 47.7$ in the 2013 election to just 35.5%, losing its absolute majority and suffering its worst result since 1950, as voters defected in their droves to the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany.
The CSU was followed by the Greens which soared in the election, more than doubling to 18.5% from 8.6% in 2013, the FW also rose to 11% from 9.0%, in 2013, while the nationalist AfD was set to enter the Bavarian regional assembly for the first time with 11% of the vote. Meanwhile, the other establishment party, the SPD also saw its support collapse from 20.6% in 2013 to just 10% today.
The full initial results from an ARD exit poll are as follows:
- CSU: 35.5 %
- Grüne: 18.5 %
- FW: 11.5 %
- AfD: 11.0 %
- SPD: 10.0 %
- FDP: 5.0 %
- Linke: 3.5 %
- Sonstige: 5.0 %
Visually:
This was the lowest result for the CSU since 1950.
What happens next? Well, now that we know that the “unexpected comeback” scenario is off, here is what the “historic defeat” would mean for Germany in the coming days, as noted earlier by ING:
Historic defeat: The CSU would probably still lead the next Bavarian government with one or two coalition partners. There would be no significant shift in the federal upper house. Instead, Chancellor Merkel would emerge as the real winner of the election. The CSU would need some time to digest such an election defeat, focusing on inner-party issues and wasting less energy on conflicts with Merkel. As a result, the coalition in Berlin could again focus on implementing the substance of its coalition agreement. At the same time, however, a historic CSU defeat could be a worrying sign for Merkel, marking a new chapter in the deterioration of the conservative bloc. A significant loss would simultaneously fuel the AfD’s position as a strong opposition party, illustrating the increasing frustration of some voters with established parties, a trend which would definitely complicate coalition-building at the next federal election.
It could be worse: as Deutsche Welle noted earlier, the CSU collapse could lead to Seehofer’s resignation from Merkel’s government, and conceivably Söder’s exit from the Bavarian state premiership, which would remove two of the chancellor’s most outspoken critics from power, and give her room to govern in the calmer, crisis-free manner she is accustomed to.
Furthermore, the heavy loss and potentially big resignations in the CSU might push a desperate party in a more volatile, abrasive direction at the national level. That would further antagonize the SPD, the center-left junior partners in Merkel’s coalition, themselves desperate for a new direction and already impatient with Seehofer’s destabilizing antics, and precipitate a break-up of the age-old CDU/CSU alliance, and therefore a break-up of Merkel’s grand coalition. In short: Anything could happen after Sunday, up to and including Merkel’s fall.
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