Exactly one week ago, “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman called for a bounce in stocks, a call he regretted just one day later when stocks tumbled and Gartman admitted he had been “clearly wrong.”
Fast forward to today, when shortly before the the daytrading president himself opined on the stock market, channeling his internal Tom Lee and saying that the “stock Market up more than 400 points yesterday. Today looks to be another good one”, that Dennis Gartman has doubled down again, and hoping that this time he will be able to bottom tick the market, says that the market is – again – overdue for a bounce, to wit:
… the market had indeed become egregiously over-sold domestically here in the States and in broad global terms also and so this bounce has some merit and likely shall last for a few days more before the markets collectively have gotten almost as egregiously overbought… perhaps in a week or two… as they were egregiously oversold only two days ago.
Even so, not even Gartman is willing to make a full-blown bet of a year-end rally, and instead says that “we look for all of the major indices to fail well below their previous interim highs and it is there and then that we shall begin selling once more.” The reason: sellers will re-emerge shortly.
All of that said, with our International Index having risen a very brisk 88 “points” it is still down 992 “points” for the year-to-date or -8.2% and it is still down a much more material 1,692 “points” from the high made on January 29th, or -13.2% from that high. These are material and very serious losses and those who were late to the bullish party and who are now suffering those losses in real and “mental” capital terms will be the willing sellers once they are able to come near to breaking-even on their investments!
Finally, Dennis cements his bounce thesis by highlighting his near-term market targets:
How far then can we imagine the markets may rise before resistance is reborn and we are to become aggressive sellers? Given that the Global Dow Index has fallen from its last interim peak of 3,155 on the 21st of September to its recent interim low of 2,839 two days ago, a “bounce” toward 2,997-3,015 would simply take that index back into its “Box” marking the 50-62% retracement of the break. In terms of the S&P here in the US, having made its last interim peak at 2,931 on the 20th of September, and having fallen to 2,656 late last week, a “bounce” to 2,795-2,825 is reasonable. Those then are our targets; we can await them… patiently.
And with that, the algos’ daily instructions have now been programmed.
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