Once again – Manufacturing survey data is completely contradictory…
Following China’s ugly PMI data, US Manufacturing PMI modestly missed expectations in November, sliding to 3-month lows as output growth slowed notably.
Markit also notes that Business confidence dipped to the weakest since September 2017. Although optimism stemmed from stronger demand, some raised concerns surrounding the sustainability of the current sequence of new order growth.
BUT…
ISM Manufacturing beat expectations rising to 59.3, well above expectations of 57.5, rebounding off last month’s 5-month lows.
So take your pick…
Under the hood in the ISM data, prices paid plunged to its lowest since June 2017
Which suggests The Fed’s inflation fears are set to disappear…
But, while PMI dipped, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit was upbeat:
“Despite the headline PMI slipping to a three-month low, November saw manufacturers enjoy another encouragingly solid month of improving business conditions.
“Dig deeper behind the headline number and the picture brightens further. New orders rose at the fastest rate for six months, prompting manufacturers to continue to expand capacity to meet demand. The pace of job creation remained among the highest seen over the past decade.
“The survey acts as a reliable guide to the official manufacturing data, and suggests that factory output is growing at an annualised rate of around 1.5% so far in the fourth quarter, providing a material but by no means impressive contribution to GDP. As such, the data corroborate the flash PMI’s signal that the economy will likely see growth slow to a 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter.
“In a further sign that growth has peaked, business optimism about the year ahead waned to the lowest for over a year, albeit with the proportion of companies expecting output to be higher in a year’s time outnumbering those expecting a decline by 36% to 3%.”
However, what Williamson seems to prefer not to mention is the slowdown in output growth to its joint-weakest since 2017…
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