With inflation ‘disappointing’, hope for the recovery was left on the shoulders of the American consumer once again and Retail Sales offered some optimism with better-than-expected (and upwardly revised) MoM gains.
The value of overall sales rose 0.2% after a 1.1% increase the prior month, but we note that YoY (unadjusted) saw a modest slowdown in growth…
But, sales in the so-called control group subset, which some analysts use to gauge underlying consumer demand, surged 0.9% MoM – smashing expectations of +0.4% – its biggest monthly jump in 12 months…
Under the hood, most sectors (9 of 13) saw increases in sales but there were drops in building materials, clothing stores, and gas stations (down 2.3% – biggest drop since May 2017).
The nonstore category, which includes online shopping, jumped 2.3%, the most in a year.
So, this “great” news will prompt Powell to hike next week and shift back to his 3 (or 4) hikes next year? Or is good news bad?
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