As confusion and tensions continue to mount in the Syrian Kurdish city of Manbij, located just 70 miles north of Aleppo, and as pro-Turkish forces prep for an invasion, is there a land swap in the works in northern Syria being brokered between Russia and Turkey? This is the pressing question as over the weekend US helicopters were filmed hovering above the potential battle lines, even after widespread reports of a US troop pullout from the area and following Kurdish militias quickly calling on the Syrian Army’s help to prevent a Turkish invasion and massacre of the province’s Kurdish inhabitants.
Following a high level Turkish defense delegation visit to Moscow on Saturday, which involved talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, RT reports the future of the Syrian-Turkish border region is on the line. This as many in Washington worry that a rapid American draw down will create a power vacuum :
Moscow and Ankara are to “define certain areas of influence and understand who will control what.” There are residual groupings of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) fighters who are ready to exploit any no power vacuum in northern Syria…
Turkish ambitions to reinstate full control over the northern Syria may not be an option for Damascus, but “it is also important for Russia to not lose Turkey as an ally.”
Marianna Belenkaya, a Middle East expert and commentator at Russia’s Kommersant daily, noted: “There’s a possibility that some kind of a land swap will be discussed,” and explained, “What is happening around Manbij is similar to what Russia has suggested a year ago in Afrin.”
Essentially this means Moscow is pressuring Kurdish militias to disarm as an independent entity and come under Damascus’ jurisdiction; and in exchange the Turks would agree to not invade the Kurdish-populated canton. Regarding Afrin, the Kurds rejected the deal at the time and were forced out during Turkey’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’.
Though few details were given, on Saturday Russia and Turkey announced plans to coordinate ground operations in Syria following last week’s surprise announcement of a full US troop draw down from Syria, according to statements by Moscow’s top diplomat, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. When it comes to Manbij, for Erdogan this will require proof of a full withdrawal of armed Kurdish YPG fighters from the town and countryside.
To protect #US Army Special Forces & #SDF from danger of #Turkey backed terror groups such as & Ahrar al-Sharqia, these 2 AH-64D Apache attack helicopters of 35th CAB “Task Force Trailblazers” patrolled over the #Manbij today. Op. #InherentResolve pic.twitter.com/1hrGHC5nvf
— Babak Taghvaee (@BabakTaghvaee) December 29, 2018
Lavrov said after talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in Moscow, “Of course we paid special attention to new circumstances which appeared in connection with the announced US military pullout.” He explained further, “An understanding was reached of how military representatives of Russia and Turkey will continue to coordinate their steps on the ground under new conditions with a view to finally rooting out terrorist threats in Syria.”
“We will continue active work (and) coordination with our Russian colleagues and colleagues from Iran to speed up the arrival of a political settlement in the Syrian Republic,” Lavrov said in remarks also confirmed by Cavusoglu, according to the AFP.
Russia had previously agreed that Turkey control a small area in the east of Idlib province, “but it’s yet to be seen if Russia would agree to a Turkish zone being extended to the entire north of Syria,” according to RT.
However, the wild card that remains is whether or not US forces will fully and truly make a complete break from the theater. Currently the Trump administration is considering whether or not to leave US weapons with the Kurds; thus it appears a full pullout is indeed happening.
Early but unconfirmed reports suggest US troops withdrawing from Syria may be relocated to the American base in Erbil, Iraq.
According to Iraqi Kurdistan’s Rudaw News:
The United States will carry out its planned troop withdrawal from Syria via the Harir Air Base in Kurdistan Region’s Erbil province, according to Anadolu Agency (AA).
AA correspondents quote local sources as saying that the Harir airbase has seen increasing air traffic and preparations.
But the situation remains highly fluid and dangerous for major escalation, especially as Turkish-backed jihadists which have been for days mustering at the western border of Manbij countryside, have declared their readiness to “cleanse” the region of Kurds according to Erdogan’s bidding.
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