IEA: The Oil Glut Is Going Nowhere

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Global oil markets will remain well supplied this year, with a possible overhang of some 1 million bpd, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Bitol, told Reuters.

“Non-OPEC production is very strong. We still expect production coming from, not just United States, but also Norway, Canada, Guyana, among other countries,” Birol said, adding

“Therefore, I can tell you that the markets are, in my view, very well supplied with oil, and as a result of that, we see prices remain at $65 a barrel.”

Norway is about to experience a sharp jump in oil production in the next four years, a new forecast from its Petroleum Directorate has shown. After a steady decline over several years, production is set for a 43-percent increase between 2019 and 2024, the NPD said, reaching 2.02 million bpd in 2024. This will be thanks to the start of production at the Johan Sverdrup offshore field along with several smaller fields.

In Guyana, Exxon has just begun production from the Liza-1 well. Daily output from the deepwater field should reach 120,000 bpd before the end of 2020. Exxon is also building a second production vessel that should raise the total to 220,000 bpd.

In Canada, meanwhile, oil production is also set to grow despite a government-imposed curtailment aimed at supporting prices. The curtailment was relaxed twice in 2019 and it only concerns large producers, allowing smaller ones to pump as much as they can sell. Based on this, the Canadian Conference Board recently forecast oil production in the country will be growing at 4.2 percent annually between this year and 2024.

Demand growth, however, will be slow, according to Birol.

“We are expecting a demand growth of slightly higher than 1 million barrels per day,” the top IEA man told Reuters.

This means that except sudden spikes in prices due to geopolitical factors or possible production outages in a major producer, oil prices this year will remain largely range-bound.