Fed’s “National Activity Index” Plunges Back Into Contraction

Despite soaring stock prices, exuberant talking heads, and ebullient politicians (on the right), The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index crashed from +0.41 to -0.35 in November (drastically worse than the +0.13 expectation).

Twenty-seven indicators improved from November to December, while 56 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged.

25 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 60 indicators affected the index negatively.

A reading below 0 indicates below-trend growth in national economy.

Source: Bloomberg

The smoother 3m average seen above has been “below-trend” for 10 straight months now, but that doesn’t matter for stocks.