Month: February 2020

Some will say it’s long overdue. We would agree.

According to Bloomberg, billionaire Paul Singer’s activist hedge fund Elliott Management has taken a sizable stake in Twitter and plans to push for changes at the social media company, including replacing Chief Executive Officer Jack Dorsey. As part of its activist campaign, Elliott has nominated four directors to Twitter’s board, and while there are only three seats becoming available at this year’s annual meeting Elliott wanted to ensure that it nominated enough directors to fill all three seats or any other vacancies that may arise.

Initially, Elliott reportedly approached Twitter about its concerns privately “and has had constructive discussions with it since then”, although the hostile turn of events suggests that discussions were not all that “constructive.”

Elliott’s push to revamp Twitter comes at a pivotal time – just as Twitter cracks down on alternative voices, silencing and suspending anyone who disagrees with the company’s ultraliberal, virtue signaling ethos without as much as a second thought. As an example of Twitter’s unprecedented anti-conservative bias we can point to the recent tweet of the company’s associate General Counsel Jeff Rich, who in direct breach of his own employer’s Terms of Service, recently urged his followers to “cull” Trump from the herd, in what appears to have been a clear appeal to assassinate a sitting US president.

YES!! Again, this 👇 Excise the Trump cancer, then deliberate over policy differences. He is the single most destructive force against our system of government, way of life and American values EVER! He must be culled from the herd. ASAP! https://t.co/MVfdAylV2H

— Jeff Rich (@jeffrich) February 1, 2020

We wonder what, if not that, is grounds for Twitter to conclude that someone is violating its rules against “abuse and harassment.”

Not only has twitter taken to silencing voices that its own employees disagree with, while falling prey to foreign powers as demonstrated by the company’s Saudi Arabia infiltration,  which may have culminated with the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, but the company has also fallen behind on innovation, choosing to focus on its “core service”, while other social media competitors like Snap and Instagram develop filters and stories popular with their users.

Besides Elliott, Twitter has been a target for several activist investors over the years as the company has one only class of stock, which means co-founder Dorsey doesn’t have voting control of the company like Facebook Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg or Snap co-founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy.

Dorsey is one of the only people to serve as CEO of two large public companies at the same time — he also runs Square Inc. That makes him a potential target for criticism whenever Twitter stumbles. Bizarrely, the “woke” CEO also said he plans to work up to six months a year in Africa.

As Bloomberg notes, Elliott isn’t the only investor to voice concerns about Dorsey and Twitter’s governance. Last December, outspoken NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway  penned a letter about his own concerns as an investor in the company.

“To be clear, my primary objective is the replacement of CEO Jack Dorsey,” Galloway said in an open letter to the company’s executive chairman, Omid Kordestani. “However, your firm’s weapons of mass entrenchment include a staggered board that may force shareholders to seek to replace other directors, including yourself, first.”

Twitter stock has seesawed in the past year, plunging after its Q3 earnings which fell far short of analyst estimates. At the time, Twitter said its privacy issues involving targeting data would continue to weigh on its advertising business. The company blamed the miss on “bugs” in the way it targeted ads and shared personal information.

The good news for Twitter shareholders, if not necessarily Jack Dorsey, is that one Elliott gets involved, people get fired. Most recently, the multi-billion fund went activist on Japan’s SoftBank and said it planned to push for a larger share buyback and governance changes at the firm’s Vision Fund, which in recent years has invested billions in virtually every disastrous venture idea it could get its hands on, most notably WeWork.

Needless to say, once Jack is gone not a single tear will be shed on this website.

In just a few decades, it’s possible that some of today’s most recognized companies may no longer be household names.

As Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh notes, corporate longevity, or the average lifespan of a company, has been shrinking dramatically.

In the 1960s, a typical S&P 500 company was projected to last for more than 60 years. However, with the rapidly transforming business landscape today, it’s down to just 18 years.

The Companies With the Strongest Staying Power

Even with companies skewing younger, there are always exceptions to the rule.

Luckily, many companies around the world have stood the test of time, and today’s detailed map from Business Financing highlights the oldest company in existence in each country.

For centuries, here are the world’s oldest corporations which have made their mark:

Whether they were born out of necessity to support a rapidly growing population—requiring new infrastructure and more money circulation—or simply to satisfy peoples’ thirst for alcohol or hunger for fried chicken, these companies continue to play a lasting role.

The Oldest Company in Every Country, by Region

Let’s dive into the regional maps, which paint a different picture for each continent.

In the following maps, countries are color-coded based on the major industry that the oldest company falls under:

• Primary: Natural resources

• Secondary: Manufacturing and processing

• Tertiary: Services and distribution

• Quaternary: Knowledge and information

Notes on Methodology:

This research considers both state-run and independent businesses in their definitions. For countries where data was hard to pin down, they have been grayed out.

As well, since many countries have a relatively new inception, present-day names and borders have been used. The map does not factor in older companies that are no longer in operation, or if it was unclear whether they were still open.

Click here to explore the full research methodology.

North America

Mexico’s La Casa de Moneda de México (founded 1534) is the oldest company across North America, and the first mint of America. Owned by the Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés, it was where the famous ‘pieces of eight’, or Spanish dollars were created.

In the U.S., the Shirley Plantation in Virginia is an ongoing reminder of the history of slavery. First founded in 1613, business actually began in 1638—and as many as 90 slaves were under indentured labor on the estate growing tobacco.

Further north, Canada’s Hudson’s Bay (founded 1670) was at the helm of the fur trade between European settlers and First Nations tribes—the two parties agreed on beaver pelts as a common, valuable trade standard.

South America

Three of the five oldest companies in South America are mints—specifically in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.

The oldest of these mints, Casa Nacional de Moneda in Peru, was built on order from Spain and established in 1565. After the great influx of newly-mined silver from America to Europe, the Spanish crown outlined to King Felipe II that building a mint would give the colony economic benefits and more control.

Europe

In total, 15 of Europe’s oldest companies are related to the food and beverage industries, from distilleries, vintners (winemaking), and breweries alongside restaurants and pubs. Austria’s St. Peter Stifts Kulinarium (founded in 803) is Europe’s oldest restaurant, located inside the St. Peter’s Abbey monastery.

Although Germany is famously known for its beer culture, its oldest company is in fact the Staffelter Hof Winery (founded in 862). Today, Germany is still a top wine country, with the industry generating up to $17 billion in revenue per year.

Asia

Asia has six oldest companies in the banking and finance category, as well as another six in the aviation and transport sector. The continent is also home to two of the world’s oldest companies, located in Japan and China.

The Japanese temple and shrine construction company, Kongō Gumi Co., Ltd. (founded in 578) has weathered a few storms over the millennia, from nuclear bombs to financial crises. In 2006, it was bought by the construction conglomerate, Takamatsu Construction Group Co., and continues to operate today.

In neighboring China, Ma Yu Ching’s Bucket Chicken House has endured dynasties of change as well. The company’s simple premise has come a long way, and it was named a cultural heritage in the country’s Henan Province.

Africa

Africa’s oldest companies are another vestige of the colonial legacy, with 11 transport companies—airlines, ports and shipping, and railways—and 9 postal services.

In fact, Cape Verde’s Correios de Cabo Verde (postal service, founded in 1849) and the DRC’s Société nationale des Chemins de fer du Congo (national railway company, founded in 1889) still go by their Portuguese and French names respectively.

Banking is another one of the oldest industries, with 17 companies across Africa. Zimbabwe’s Standard Chartered branch has been around since 1892, a subsidiary of its London-based parent company.

Oceania

Australia officially became a country on January 1st, 1901—but its oldest company, the Australia Post (founded in 1809) precedes this by almost a century.

Interestingly, just one more old company could be located for this region, which is the Bank of New Zealand—one of the country’s Big Four banks.

All in all, these oldest companies paint a historical picture of the major industries which have shaped entire regions.

Did you recognize any on the list?

Via SchiffGold.com,

People have treasured gold for millennia. They’ve draped it over the bodies. They’ve used it as money. They’ve even adorned their tombs with the yellow metal. As beloved as it is, it should come as no surprise that gold has been the subject of many famous quotes.

So, what are the greatest quotes featuring gold of all time? We wanted to find out so we held a contest. The prize – once ounce of pure gold.

Roy Sebag ran the contest through his Twitter account. Roy is the founder of GoldMoney, and SchiffGold is part of the GoldMoney family.

The contest was pretty simple. Respond to Roy’s tweet with a name and original quote by a historic figure in relation to gold.

I am giving away 1 ounce of gold worth $1,680 today. To enter the draw, you must respond to this tweet with a name and original quote by a historic figure in relation to Gold. Originality is key. @SchiffGold our coin business will reach out to the winner to arrange delivery.

— Roy Sebag (@roysebag) February 24, 2020

The response was fantastic. Over 500 people responded with quotes. Roy picked the top four and drew the winner out of a hat.

And the winner was…

“Love is the soul’s electric flame,
And gold its best conductor.” -Robert Burns

The quote comes from a poem.

She asked why wedding rings are made of gold;
I ventured this to instruct her;
Why, madam, love and lightning are the same,
On earth they glance, from Heaven they came.
Love is the soul’s electric flame,
And gold its best conductor.

The other finalists were as follows.

“Gold loves to make its way through guards, and breaks through barriers of stone more easily than the lightning’s bolt.” – Horace

“Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold.” – Leo Tolstoy

“Only as an image of the highest virtue did gold get to be the highest value. The giver’s glance gleams like gold. A golden brilliance concludes the peace between the moon and the sun. Uncommon is the highest virtue and useless, it is gleaming and gentle in its brilliance.” – Nietzsche

“The return on gold does not depend on the fulfillment of some material condition. It is an ideological problem. It presupposes only one thing: the abandonment of the illusion that increasing the quantity of money creates prosperity.” Ludwig von Mises

And here are some more of the greatest gold quotes.

“Let us rejoice that we are poor, And have no gold to keep: We do not need to bar the door Ere we can go to sleep.” -Robert Leighton

“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” – J.P. Morgan

“Brass shines as fair to the ignorant as gold to the goldsmiths.” – Queen Elizabeth I

“Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.” – Norm Franz

“Gold — what can it not do, and undo?” — William Shakespeare

“We are often told that the Gold Standard will shackle us to the United States. I will deal with that in a moment. I will tell you what it will shackle us to. It will shackle us to reality. For good or for ill, it will shackle us to reality.” – Winston Churchill

“The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit.” ― Ralph Waldo Emerson

“O Gold! I still prefer thee unto paper which makes bank credit like a bark of vapour.” – Lord Byron

“Because gold is honest money it is disliked by dishonest men.” – Ron Paul

“O Zeus, why is it you have given men clear ways of testing whether gold is counterfeit but, when it comes to men, the body carries no stamp of nature for distinguishing bad from good?” ― Euripides

“Everything has its limit- iron ore cannot be educated into gold.” – Mark twain

“Gold makes the ugly beautiful.” – Moliere

“[Gold] can be made either into bars, ingots, or coins…has no nationality [and] is considered, in all places and at all times, the immutable and fiduciary value par excellence.” – Charles de Gaulle

“When Gold argues the cause, eloquence is impotent.” — Publilius Syrus

“An inch of time is an inch of gold, but an inch of time cannot be purchased for an inch of gold. Pure gold does not fear furnace. Read critically, and you will find each word worth a thousand ounces of gold. Words are mere bubbles of water, but deeds are drops of gold.” – 中国谚语

“Gold was a gift to Jesus. If it’s good enough for Jesus, it’s good enough for me!” — Mr. T

“Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium.” -Murray Rothbard

“Now a river went out of Eden to water the garden, and from there it parted and became four riverheads. The name of the first is Pishon … where there is gold. And the gold of that land is good.” Moses, Genesis 2:10-12

“Gold is tried by fire, brave men by adversity.” -Seneca

“Stay gold Ponyboy.” – Johnny Cade in The Outsiders

“From a strictly economic point of view, buying gold in a major inflation and holding it probably presents the least risk of capital loss of any investment or speculation.” – Henry Hazlitt

“Dare to love yourself as if you were a rainbow with gold at both ends.” Author-Poet Aberjhani

This could actually be a rare example of taxpayer money being put to good use by US intelligence agencies for a change, instead of the usual overthrowing governments, funding fanatical “rebels”, and eavesdropping on domestic communications.

Reuters reports that US spy agencies are closely monitoring the coronavirus and as a global threat to the homeland, and foreign governments’ ability to respond:

U.S. intelligence agencies are monitoring the global spread of coronavirus and the ability of governments to respond, sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday, warning that there were concerns about how India would cope with a widespread outbreak.

Both India and Iran are said to be of top concern for intelligence officials, given especially India’s densely packed population of over 1 billion people.

The New York Post writes: 

Spy agencies in the US are monitoring the spread of coronavirus across the world — with a focus on India — as officials grapple with concerns over the country’s ability to handle a widespread outbreak.

India has confirmed just three cases of COVID-19 in the country, while its government says 23,531 people are under observation, the Economic Times reported.

As for Iran, it’s widely believed the Islamic Republic’s leaders are concealing the true numbers in the hardest hit Middle East country, while lashing out at Washington for stoking fear and “propaganda” – as President Hassan Rouhani put it in a Wednesday speech.

A new report in The Daily Beast  cites health researches who say Iran’s true numbers of infected could be closer to 18,000 and not the current official figure of over 240.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said earlier this week that US remains “deeply concerned” Tehran is covering up the true level of its outbreak.

Meanwhile, the Reuters report notes further that the House Intelligence Committee is being regularly briefed by US intelligence. 

“The Committee has received a briefing from the IC (intelligence community) on coronavirus, and continues to receive updates on the outbreak on a daily basis,” a House Intelligence Committee official told Reuters.

“Addressing the threat has both national security and economic dimensions, requiring a concerted government-wide effort and the IC is playing an important role in monitoring the spread of the outbreak, and the worldwide response,” the official said.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Shocking video out of Ontario, Canada shows left-wing environmentalist protesters attempt to derail and then set fire to a train.

Members of the Mohawk First Nation, who are engaging in rail blockades in an effort to stop the construction of a pipeline, were filmed standing in front of a train before pelting it with rocks and then laying thick tree branches on the tracks.

This is incredibly dangerous and idiotic. #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/u6b8DiCqH2

— True North (@TrueNorthCentre) February 26, 2020

The footage then shows the protesters burning wooden pallets in an attempt to set fire to the train.

Another video shows firefighters attending to a car that was engulfed in flames and placed on the railway tracks.

A car was engulfed in flames on Wednesday on the railway tracks at Shannonville Road in Tyendinaga, Ont. Firefighters arrived on scene to extinguish the fire and it is currently unknown if protesters set the fire.

Read the latest: https://t.co/dmTcGVAx0p pic.twitter.com/kNmjqzpOb7

— Globalnews.ca (@globalnews) February 26, 2020

Some reacted to the clips by calling for the group to be listed as a domestic terror organization.

DOMESTIC TERROR: It’s time to call a spade a spade. As violence spreads on the tracks, and professional protestors attempt to light trains on fire, a PM must act, or resign.

Today’s disgraceful actions were an act of domestic terror. Full stop. pic.twitter.com/YmF0dwyn2f

— National Citizens Coalition (@NatCitizens) February 26, 2020

“It is extremely concerning to see people endangering their own lives and the lives of others by trying to interfere with the trains,” remarked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

According to Quebec Premier Francois Legault, some of the demonstrators have also been seen carrying AK-47s.

While some of the protesters have been arrested while manning the blockades, no charges have been brought.

*  *  *

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One week ago, ahead of today’s Chinese data release which would for the first time capture the devastation from the coronavirus pandemic, we wrote that “to those who have been following our series of high-frequency, daily indicators of China’s economy, it will probably not come as a surprise that the world’s second biggest economy has ground to a halt, its GDP set to post the first negative print in modern history. To everyone else who is just now catching up, we have some news: it’s going to be bad.”

Specifically, we said that ahead of official Chinese economic data which will soon start capturing the period when the coronavirus hit the nation, Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu noted that China’s Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI), which gauges momentum in the country’s high-tech industries and is closely correlated with official manufacturing PMI, slumped to 29.9 in February (from 50.1 in January!), its lowest-print on record (introduced Jan ’14), which as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes “is pure reflection of the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.“

What does this mean for the closely followed China manufacturing PMI? As NOmura wrote, “even adjusting for seasonality and expected progress in business resumption in the coming week, we estimate the official manufacturing PMI could drop to a range of 30-40 in Feb.”

Well, it turns out that Nomura was optimistic, because moments ago China’s National Statistics Bureau reported the latest, February PMIs and they were absolutely catastrophic:

• Manufacturing PMI crashes to 35.7 in Feb, sharply below the 45.0 consensus estimate, and down from 50.0 in January. A record low.
• Non-Manufacturing PMI plummets to 28.9, also far below the 50.5 consensus, estimate, and down nearly 50% from the 54.1 in Jan. Also a record low.

Putting these number in context, they are far, far worse than the prints for both series reported during the financial crisis, when the mfg PMI dropped to “only” 38.8, while the non-manufacturing PMI never even contracted.

What is even more ominous is that while China’s non-mfg PMI has traditionally been stronger, in February not only did it collapse into deep contraction, but it plunged to 5 points below where the manufacturing sector currently finds itself, a catastrophic 20-handle.

Commenting on the unprecedented number, Bloomberg’s China economist Tom Orlik said that “the first credible gauge of how China’s economy is fairing under virus lock down – the official PMI – is pointing to a brutal drop into contraction.” Well, no: anyone who read our recent series analyzing “high-frequeny”, real-time Chinese data already was aware of the catastrophic collapse in China’s economy.

• China Has Ground To A Halt: “On The Ground” Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
• China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero
• Terrifying Charts Show China’s Economy Remains Completely Paralyzed

Of course, we are confident that as so often happens, the market will take these numbers in stride, as they will be an indication that China is “kitchen sinking” the collapse, and a V-shaped recovery will follow.

Alas, it won’t, because while not only has China’s economy not picked up even modestly, but it is only a matter of time before Beijing, which has forced people to go to work against their will, succumbs to a second wave of coronavirus infections, one which will result in a far worse economic collapse than the current one, which incidentally has yet to show any actual recovery!

Finally, for all those expecting that Beijing will unleash another massive stimulus to kick-start the economy at any cost, we give the last word to Nomura’s Ting Lu, who not only correctly predicted the plunge in PMIs, but also says that “the likelihood of another round of massive stimulus appears low as policy space remains limited.””

“We believe markets might underestimate the scale of the current growth slump. Due to a slower-than-expected rate of business resumption, we have cut our year-on-year Q1 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% and expect Beijing to ramp up policy easing measures in coming months. That said, the likelihood of another round of massive stimulus appears low as policy space remains limited.”

In short, for China – which was the world’s growth dynamo during the global financial crisis and helped the world rebound from a global depression at the expense of tens of trillions in new debt – the end of the economic road may finally be here.

With California reporting late on Friday that a second coronavirus case of “unknown origin” has been uncovered, prompting Santa Claria’s Health Department to caution that “now is the time to prepare for the possibility of widespread community transmission” echoing similar warnings from the CDC, the Trump administration’s response to what now appears an inevitable surge in US-based coronavirus cases is becoming an increasingly politicized topic, and not without justification: after all, it is hardly a secret that Trump’s favorite “job approval” barometer has been the stock market – which hit an all time high as recently as last week – and it is also hardly a secret that Trump hardly wishes to inspire a stock market panic by disclosing the full extent and severity of any potential domestic epidemic (which ironically, aligns Trump ideologically with China, which is now willing to sacrifice its population in the pursuit of restarting the Chinese economy).

President Trump on the coronavirus: “We made a decision very early to close up our borders to certain areas of the world and we did that so we are hopefully getting lower from [15].” pic.twitter.com/mVrIV07n7O

— The Hill (@thehill) February 29, 2020

Yet the more Trump, or various domestic institutions, appears evasive over the full extent of the corona crisis inside the US, the more markets get hit. Worse, the longer Trump avoids addressing the potential domestic epidemic, the more likely it is that the market crash that saw stocks plunge this week at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, will persist.

This brings us to an absolutely spot-on observation made by Bank of America’s rates strategist Ralf Preusser, who explains why for Trump, and US stocks, it may only get worse, before it gets even worse. That reason is that markets now seem to be taking the view that authorities – i.e., Trump – face an impossible trade-off:

• On one hand, they can adopt the Draconian quarantine measures seen in China and trigger a global recession as worldwide economic activity grinds to a halt
• Or, they can risk a pandemic by failing to take more aggressive action on Covid-19, also resulting in a global recession

China initially tried the first only to watch its economy grind to a halt, and then flipped in pursuit of the second option (while covering up the full extent of the ongoing coronavirus crisis within its borders) in hopes of rebooting the economy (the results of this diabolical approach are dismal at best as the following charts show), at least until the wave of new infections overruns the system and forces Beijing to once again “come clean”, while blaming it on a definition “glitch.”

Similar to China, the Trump administration realizes the “Catch-22” nature of the dilemma it is facing and is hoping to delay making a decision for as long as possible, knowing well that either choice could trip the US into a recession and with the November elections looming, a recessionary outcome could devastate Trump’s odds for reelection.

Of course, there will come a moment when even Trump will have to pick an approach, and if it is the first, the US economy would grind to a halt on short notice, similar to China, while the second will not only spark risks of an even greater epidemic over in the long run but trigger an aggressive popular response against Trump (one spearheaded by the resistance media), and which will paint the US President as the American version of Xi Jinping – one willing to sacrifice US citizens just to keep stock prices elevated.

While we wait to see which option in this Faustian bargain Trump picks, BofA writes that while it is hopeful that we are ” faced with a situation where the epidemic remains under control with clusters of outbreaks that are contained” even there it “cannot rule out recession risks given possible supply chain disruptions and the extent to which the global recovery is dependent on the consumer.”

Moreover, Preusser adds, “we need to acknowledge that even after recent corrections in risk assets (equities, credit, EM, periphery), allocations to risk remain meaningful and markets are short of hedges.” From that perspective, Bank of America warns that the “30-50% recession risks implied by the market do not seem extravagant to us.”

So is a recession looming, and when will we know? According to Preusser, “the question is to what extent next week’s data will incorporate this week’s deterioration in Covid-19.” One place that should give a sense of the supply disruptions is China PMIs, although this data has been notoriously massaged in the past. Separately, the US ISM print may show the sentiment effect of the China element of the outbreak, but would fail to reflect this week’s realization that the virus may be spreading meaningfully beyond Asia. Likewise the labor market report will be backward looking at this stage. Finally, German January factory orders and the details of the European PMI prints will not tell us much about the risks to the European recovery from the outbreak in Italy.

In short, the lack of any clear confirmation that the global economy is stalling may give Trump just the ammo to keep his head stuck in the sand, pretending there is no trouble and that only Powell is to blame for the market’s woes. The irony, of course, is that the longer Trump delays picking an approach, leading to what Bank of America calls a state of “Schrodinger’s Recession”…

… the more likely it is that a very real recession will be the inevitable outcome, and this week the stock market, whose discounting abilities have been crushed by the Fed’s central planning in the past decade but still function if just barely, finally realized that.

Via Dr. Susan Crockford’s PolarBearScience.com,

Google says many people ask this question so here is the correct answer: polar bears are not going extinct.

If you have been told that, you have misunderstood or have been misinformed. Polar bears are well-distributed across their available habitat and population numbers are high (officially 22,000-31,000 at 2015 but likely closer to 26,000-58,000 at 2018): these are features of a healthy, thriving species.

‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’ contains a false premise – there is no need to ask ‘why’ when the ‘polar bears [are] going extinct’ part is not true.

It is true that in 2007, it was predicted that polar bear numbers would plummet when summer sea ice declined to 42% of 1979 levels for 8 out of 10 years (anticipated to occur by 2050) and extinct or nearly so by 2100 (Amstrup et al. 2007). However, summer sea ice has been at ‘mid-century-like’ levels since 2007 (with year to year variation, see NOAA ice chart below) yet polar bear numbers have increased since 2005. The anticipated disaster did not occur but many people still believe it did because the media and some researchers still give that impression.

The prediction of imminent extinction of the polar bear was an utter failure, as I’ve shown in this scientific paper (Crockford 2017) and my most recent book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened.

Examine the evidence and you will see that claims of polar bears going extinct are simply not true. So far, the response of polar bears to recent ice loss suggests that they will continue to thrive with even less summer ice than there has been in recent years as long as ice in winter (December-March) and spring (April-June) remains reasonably abundant, as has been the case to date. The most recent information available is summarized in the upcoming State of the Polar Bear Report 2019, to be released 27 February 2020 but see also the 2018 report (Crockford 2019b).

The graph below was constructed by NASA sea ice expert Walt Meier and published by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in early October 2019. It shows clearly that summer sea ice (measured as the average for September) has not declined further since 2007 but has had a flat trend.

The graph below is from my book and shows the growth of global polar bear numbers since the 1960s.

The final estimate 26,000-58,000 or 39,000 average) is my plausible and scientifically defensible ‘best guess’ based on extrapolation of recent survey results, summarized here and explained in detail in my book.

FOOTNOTE

One of Google’s top ‘suggestion’ when I search for the term ‘polar bear’ is a list of questions that people supposedly ask the most (‘People also ask’), including ‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’

The ‘answer’ provided is not an actual answer but a statement from WWF, an multi-national organization financially invested in promoting the idea that polar bears are suffering due to declining sea ice: it’s paid Google advertising meant to look like answers and facts:

‘Because of ongoing and potential loss of their sea ice habitat resulting from climate change, polar bears were listed as a threatened species in the US under the Endangered Species Act in May 2008. The survival and the protection of the polar bear habitat are urgent issues for WWF.’

Note the statement misleadingly says ‘sea ice’ when it really means ‘summer sea ice’ – the predictions of potential polar bear population decline were based exclusively on summer ice (Amstrup et al. 2007; Crockford 2017, 2019).

As I said above, ‘Why are polar bears going extinct?’ contains a false premise – there is no need to ask ‘why’, when the ‘polar bears [are] going extinct’ part is not true. This post is for the people who search the internet thinking that polar bears really are going extinct.

Another question Google offers is: ‘How many polar bears are left?’ Answer [my bold]:

‘In fact, the World Wide Fund for Nature (or WWF) estimates that there are only 22,000 to 31,000 polar bears left in the world. Jan 25, 2019’

Only? This global estimate, provided by the IUCN Red List (not the WWF) means there are almost three times more polar bears than the 10,000 or so there were in 1960 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). But the Red List figure includes out-of-date estimates and low-balled guesses for many of the 19 subpopulations and my book (Crockford 2019) explains why this 2015 estimate sanctioned by the IUCN was almost certainly too low.

Greece sealed its key land Kastanies border crossing with Turkey Friday after Ankara declared it’s allowing refugees to flee Idlib and on to Europe for at least 72 hours, in response to Syrian-Russian airstrikes killing 33 Turkish troops Thursday.

Germany’s Bild newspaper reported Friday that Greece is taking further emergency measures to prevent Erdogan from effectively “opening the gates” on new waves of refugee and migrant hordes seeking entry to the EU, noting the country “completely closed off its borders with Turkey: not just for refugees, but for EVERYONE.”

The newspaper said 50 naval ships, likely most of them small patrol vessels, have been deployed by the Hellenic Navy to ensure those coming out of Turkey don’t get through.

Citing a top Greek government official, Bild reported further this will include air support.

“According to BILD information, the government sent 50 warships to the Greek islands to protect the EU’s external borders,” the German tabloid said. “Ten helicopters are also supposed to secure the transitions to Turkey on land.”

Greece’s Ekathimerini newspaper said military commandos were being sent to key crossings following an emergency meeting of key government officials Friday to deal with the crisis:

Patrols along the land and river border in northeastern Evros have been bolstered since Friday morning, when the first large groups of migrants began to arrive following an announcement on Thursday night by a Turkish government official saying that Ankara would no longer try to prevent Syrians fleeing war in their country from attempting the crossing to the European Union.

The army has also dispatched two commando units to help the Hellenic Police guards at the border, and particularly to patrol the more dangerous sections of the Evros River.

Turkish TVs broadcast footages showing migrants are boarding boats off Turkish coast, departing to Greek islands pic.twitter.com/YLMEM1lCMk

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 28, 2020

And The Guardian reported further early Friday: “Hundreds of Syrian refugees in Turkey have begun preparing to travel towards the country’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria after Ankara’s sudden decision to no longer impede their passage to Europe.” 

“Turkish police, coastguard and border security officials were ordered to stand down overnight on Thursday, Turkish officials briefed reporters,” the report added.

As European officials mull whether this is but more of Erdogan’s threats or perhaps an early “taste” of what’s to come, or whether the flood has begun, Bulgaria has begun taking extra security action as well, bolstering patrols along border areas with Turkey

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis vowed that “no illegal entries into Greece will be tolerated” – noting greatly tightened security along the EU’s external borders.

#Turkish official tv tell 3.5 million #Syrian refuges how to go to #Europe pic.twitter.com/sQHyj6ReWi

— Ibrahim Hamidi (@ibrahimhamidi) February 28, 2020

Turkey’s communications director Fahrettin Altun had earlier said Turkey had “no choice” but to relax border controls after its pleas for greater European help in assisting with the over 3 million refugees on its territory went unheeded. 

However, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu sought to downplay new reports of Turkey encouraging refugees exit toward Europe, saying Turkey’s policy hasn’t changed. But footage coming out of Turkey and the Greece-Turkey main crossing throughout Friday speaks otherwise.

Authored by Tim Kriby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Now that Bernie Sanders has been informed that the Kremlin is trying to support him (whether he likes it or not) he has officially become a viable candidate who may actually desire to make real systemic change. In a way the Russia connection accusation can now be worn as a badge of honour by Gabbard and Trump due to them truly being a limited threat to the status quo. Sanders got a gentler version of this form of Deep State virtue signaling by just being told that Russians are pushing for him on their own, meaning that there “may be hope for him yet” to turn around and jump right back on the Beltway bandwagon. Ultimately, the #Russiagate tactic did not disway voters from electing Trump but it did eat up a massive amount of his precious time/resources as US President and put an invisible Iron Curtain between any possible positive cooperation between America and Russia. This “collusion” revelation of dubious validity for Sanders will probably have a similar impact on his campaign and possible time in the Oval Office as it did with Trump, but regardless he is the only chance the Democrats have of winning in 2020.

Democratic and Republican voters are obviously different in their beliefs falling onto one of two different sides of every wedge issue, but one thing unites all American voters – no one actually cares about Russia or really any foreign power. Over the last 6 months, less than 0.5% of Americans said their primary concern was “Situation with Russia” based on polling by Gallup. (Gallop lists all concerns with a tiny response at 0.5% meaning that literally one person could have listed this as their big issue and it would be rounded up to half a percent). If we then take a look at the biggest concerns that Americans do have, then not surprisingly it is things like the economy, healthcare, government/poor leadership, immigration, poverty and surprisingly unifying the country.

This has been a consistent fact for decades, the American voter is vastly more concerned about things that affect them personally than some greater threat or ideological goal. America is a society of individualists so naturally most people’s demands from power are based their own individual needs. There is nothing surprising here, except for the desire to “unify the country” which has not been a priority in previous years.

Photo: Bernie speaks to youth better than men half his age

Perhaps some people in the Beltway are concerned with Russia, but the voting masses are not and the narrative that “Bernie is getting help from Moscow, but then again he didn’t ask for it and is not involved” is very weak sauce. This will not dissuade any real large number of people away from voting for him as the Democratic Candidate.

What Sanders offered in 2016 that got crushed by inner Democratic Party moves and Hillary Clinton is still fresh and relevant today – “Free” Stuff and cutesy poo Socialism. Just like last time the only hope the Dems have is the man from Vermont with the thick New York accent as all the other candidates are dismal offerings to the public. Sanders’ position is what a large portion of the population wants. Is it viable and can Sanders actually do it? These questions do not matter as the average voter does not think about them, they want their college debt annulled and medical care guaranteed and who cares how it gets done. Sanders promises this clearly and bluntly while the others are too busy looking at percentages from focus group reactions to shift their image from day-to-day. Bernie is really the only choice for the Democrats to compete with Trump.

Graphic: A simple message that is deeply relevant to Americans is what gets votes

Biden managed to throw away all the years of positive brand recognition that he had attained thanks to standing next to Barack Obama by allowing #Russiagate to meltdown into #Ukrainegate expositing his corrupt dealings in America’s newest colony. Additionally there are lots of videos of Biden inappropriately touching children, which is far more important from an electoral standpoint. Biden had it and lost it.

Tulsi Gabbard as a female veteran (who doesn’t look White) should have gotten the Left excited, but instead they trounced her as she seemed unwilling to play ball. Yang has one idea (Universal Basic Income) and the complete lack of personality needed to push it. Elizabeth Warren has all the problems of Hillary Clinton while still managing to have less humanity on camera. Stuffy anti-gun nut Buttigieg will probably give the Republicans the largest amount of minority votes seen during our lifetimes. Bloomberg is a boring version of Trump who seems to be obviously trying to buy his way into the election, which will ultimately backfire. Who is this Amy Klobuchar woman and how did she actually get a tiny amount of delegates? Bernie’s competition is a joke.

Sanders, despite being the old rich bald White guy the Left claims to loath, is head and shoulders above anyone else in terms of his ability to deliver a message and get a positive reaction out of people. Basically, he has the showmanship and the ability to relate to people well enough to get the youth and minority vote. Most of all, he promises free stuff that he is going to tax us for which is the naive instant gratification solution that the masses want. The entire country has brutal college debt and the fear of life-crushing medical debt. Even though Sanders has almost zero chance of actually getting Scandinavian Style Socialized Medicine or a Student Loan Amnesty accomplished, just the promise alone is very tempting. When faced with the option of possibly getting tens of thousand of dollars of debt cancelled vs. a 0% chance of that happening with Trump, well you can see whom debt ridden Americans will be casting their ballots for.

Yang’s Universal Basic Income also speaks to the millions of voices fighting to get from paycheck to paycheck but he was unable to deliver it. Sanders has the charisma and the big pleasant sounding simple solutions that the common man will buy into. If the Democrats again somehow try to sabotage Bernie, then they will be the ones feeling the “Bern” as they will be utterly crushed by Trump, allowing the Republican party to continue its transformation from the perception of a pro-business party to one of a multi-racial pro-Constitutional populist party. The DNC can either back someone they don’t like or shoot themselves in the foot, but judging by their overall irrational political views and emotion driven logic they are probably already trying to put the “magazine” in the revolver as we speak.