‘Leaked’ Data Signals Massive Rebound In Chicago PMI

MNI Chicago Business Barometer was expected to be released at 0945ET but most data outlets are now printing the data early… and it’s a huge beat.

Against expectations of a small rise from 51.2 to 52.0, September’s Chicago PMI screamed up to 62.4.

Source: Bloomberg

This is well above the highest (56.3) estimate from analysts… this is in fact a 10-Sigma beat!

Source: Bloomberg

7 of the components rose vs last month:

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Order backlogs rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion

Again we warn this is not confirmed, but it is widespread.