Futures, Global Markets Unsure What To Do As “Angst” Rises

US equity futures and world stocks were flat below recent record highs after several days of ramping higher driven by strength in tech, while Europe’s STOXX 600 slipped, reversing an earlier gain with markets in Frankfurt, London and Paris were down around 0.3% following moves to address rising coronavirus infection rates in Europe.

The market was unsure what to do after a downbeat day on Tuesday, when stocks dropped after two COVID-19 trials were delayed, and U.S. stimulus hit an impasse. The losses began when Johnson & Johnson said it was pausing a COVID-19 vaccine trial after a study participant suffered an unexplained illness. Eli Lilly and Co N later said it too had paused the clinical trial of its COVID-19 antibody treatment because of a safety concern, leading the U.S. equity market to deeper losses. J&J shares lost 2.3% and Eli Lilly closed down nearly 3%. Hopes for the passage of a new coronavirus relief package also faded as U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected a $1.8 trillion relief proposal from the White House.

As a result, markets are grappling with “angst about vaccine/antibody delays, angst about rising covid cases in Europe, stalled U.S. fiscal talks, stalled Brexit trade talks” according to Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Societe Generale. Euro zone industrial production data showed the rate of recovery slowed sharply in August, in line with expectations.

Europe continues to be hit hard with a second wave of covid, and moving beyond bar and pub closures, the Czech Republic, which now has Europe’s worst rate per capita, shifted schools to distance learning and hospitals started cutting non-urgent medical procedures to free beds. Moscow authorities said on Wednesday they would introduce online learning for many students starting on Monday, while Northern Ireland announced schools would close for two weeks.

“The standstill in negotiations over a new U.S. fiscal package as COVID-19 infections continue to rise globally highlights the importance of political consensus, and here the outcome of the election is likely to prove pivotal,” Unicredit analysts said in a note.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by energy and materials, with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan tracking Wall Street’s losses overnight to end a seven-day rally. Most markets in the region were down, with Thailand’s SET dropping 1% and South Korea’s Kospi Index falling 0.9%, while Jakarta Composite gained 0.8%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 11% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 0.3%, with DesignOne and Treasure Factory falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.6%, with Shanghai Baosight and HNA Technology posting the biggest slides.

Meanwhile, in the US banks are in focus on Wall Street, with revenues at Bank of America plunging as lower loan loss provisions offset the hit to the bottom line, while Goldman stock was higher after a solid beat in FICC. In addition to following the start of earnings season, investors will be watching tensions between the European Union and Britain after the EU demanded “substantive” movement on Tuesday on fisheries, dispute settlement and guarantees of fair competition in their talks on a post-Brexit trade deal. An EU-UK trade deal is difficult but still possible to achieve if the two sides negotiate intensely in the coming weeks, said a person close to the talks on Wednesday. Sterling reversed earlier losses against the euro and the dollar on the news. EU leaders will hold a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to assess progress.

Elsewhere in FX, the U.S. dollar was steady after its best day in three weeks on Tuesday, when its index against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.5%. The index was last 0.06% lower at 93.48. The euro was barely changed at $1.1741.

In rates, Treasuries extended their advance, with 10-year yields approaching last week’s low at 0.714%. The curve was flatter as the long end outperformed. The focus remains on stalemated U.S. fiscal stimulus negotiations, while U.S. session includes several Fed speakers. Yields were lower by ~2bp at long end with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by more than 1bp; 10-year, lower by 1.3bp at 0.714%, trails bund and gilt yield declines by ~1bp. In Europe, government bonds edged up with German bund yields hitting their lowest since May. Irish 10-year yields fell to a record low.

Zambia, one of the world’s largest copper producers, saw its international bonds slump more than three cents on the dollar on fears of an ugly default caused by an escalating row between the government and the country’s private-sector creditors.

In commodities, Oil slipped on concerns that fuel demand will continue to falter as rising coronavirus cases across Europe and in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, impede economic growth. Brent and WTI were at $42.40 and $40.10 a barrel, respectively after grinding modestly higher earlier after the IEA monthly oil market report which wrapped up this month’s 3-main releases and notably provided an alternative demand view. Specifically, the IEA report maintained 2020 & 2021 crude demand forecasts at largely unchanged levels from the previous report; however, they did highlight that demand growth is now beginning to slow given the resurgence in COVID-19. Spot gold is up 0.6% this morning but remains capped around $1900/oz mark which coincides with the session high thus far. Separately and following reports that China ordered their domestic steel mills to stop purchasing Australian coal, on this, while Australia state they have not heard of any formal order from China, BHP announced they have received deferment requests from Chinese coal customers.

In addition to earnings from Bank of America, Goldman, Wells Fargo and United Health, we get the latest PPI data.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,520.25
• Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.3% to 371.89
• MXAP down 0.1% to 176.90
• MXAPJ down 0.1% to 587.43
• Nikkei up 0.1% to 23,626.73
• Topix down 0.3% to 1,643.90
• Hang Seng Index up 0.07% to 24,667.09
• Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,340.78
• Sensex down 0.6% to 40,383.44
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,179.17
• Kospi down 0.9% to 2,380.48
• Brent futures up 0.3% to $42.57/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,899.36
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.56
• German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to -0.568%
• Euro up 0.03% to $1.1750
• Italian 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.456%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.133%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• President Donald Trump’s once-tight grip on Republican lawmakers is showing signs of slipping as he falls further behind Democrat Joe Biden, making the GOP path to keeping control of the Senate increasingly fraught
• Boris Johnson is under growing pressure to order a U.K. “circuit breaker” lockdown, as other countries across Europe widened curbs. The sprint to find medical breakthroughs to contain Covid-19 stumbled this week, as a pair of pharmaceutical giants working to develop treatments and vaccines suffered setbacks
• Johnson’s government is drawing up plans for a radical new law that would give ministers power to unravel foreign investments in U.K. companies — potentially casting major doubt on deals that have already been concluded — to stop hostile states gaining control over key assets
• The European Central Bank must question whether mirroring the composition of the bond market in its asset purchases is appropriate in light of climate risks, according to President Christine Lagarde

A look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asia-Pac equities traded with no clear conviction following a downbeat handover from Wall Street whereby the major indices snapped a four-day winning streak as hopes for a near-term stimulus bill fade with Democrats and Republicans still at loggerheads, whilst Eli Lilly announced that it will pause its COVID-19 antibody treatment over safety concerns, less than a day after Johnson & Johnson announced the halt of its vaccine study. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was contained within a tight parameter amid the heightening tensions with China and ahead of Aussie jobs data and a speech by RBA Governor Lowe tomorrow. Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) and KOSPI (-0.9%) both opened narrowly lower but thereafter diverged, with the latter extending losses after the BoK stood pat on rates, whilst Apple suppliers saw mixed trade following the unveiling of the iPhone 12, with Taiyo Yuden and Murata Manufacturing posting losses, whilst South Korea’s LG Display jumped over 2.5% as Apple extended the range of iPhones to include a new “mini” model – Taiwanese chip makers were also mixed. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (-0.6%) held onto losses amid another net daily drain by the PBoC as Chinese markets awaited President Xi’s speech which provided little by way of fresh news or surprises, whilst Hang Seng (U/C) opened with modest gains as it played catchup from yesterday’s storm-cancelled trade but immediately erased upside as China’s Evergrande shares slumped over 15% after announcing a share placement as a discount to its last closing price, and HSBC fell around 3% after the Co. was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign debt sale. 10yr JGBs saw modest gains amid the cautious risk tone in the APAC region.

Top Asian News

• China Is Buying Up Record Chunks of Japan’s Debt Mountain
• Evergrande Tumbles After Share Placement Misses Target

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) trade somewhat mixed in what has been a relatively uninspiring/choppy session thus far. From a macro standpoint, there’s been not much for participants to digest since yesterday’s close asides from US stimulus headlines that continue to highlight the differences between the Republican and Democratic camps with the former (led by Senate Majority Leader McConnell) set to table a USD 500bln stimulus proposal next week; a move that had already been rebuffed by House Speaker Pelosi. On the medical front, Eli Lilly have been the latest company to halt a trial for one of its products, this time amid safety concerns over its COVID antibody treatment. However, the market remains upbeat in its view that such occurrences are a regular feature of the process and have therefore taken the news in its stride. The FTSE 100 (U/C) has outperformed its peers throughout the session, however, this has been more a by-product of earlier GBP weakness, as opposed to any inherent strength within the index. Most recently, European bourses have come under pressure as sentiment deteriorates ahead of the US market entrance seemingly taking the lead from US futures which have reverted to the U/C mark. From a sectoral standpoint, banking names are seeing some reprieve from yesterday’s noteworthy declines with strength seen particularly in Spanish banks. To the downside, the COVID-sensitive travel & leisure sector is softer on the session with losses also observed in real estate names. In terms of stock specifics, Atlantia (+9.3%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 amid reports that CDP, the Italian State Lender, is collaborating with Blackstone & Macquarie on a bid for the Co’s stake in Autostrade. Elsewhere, financial updates from Ashmore (+7.1%), TomTom (+3.2%) and Just East Takeaway.com (+4.9%) have boosted their respective share prices. Maersk (+3.1%) are enjoying a session of gains thus far amid source reports noting that it could lower its headcount by around 2k.

Top European News

• Atlantia Shares Soar as Talks on Autostrade Pick Up Steam
• ASML Stays Positive Despite Being Caught by U.S., China Rift
• Lagarde Says ECB Should Ask If Market Neutrality Is Right Policy
• Brexit Negotiators Turn Up Heat as U.K. Deadline Approaches

In FX, although the writing was on the wall well before the latest headlines emphasising that the impasse between the UK and EU on key trade issues remains too big to formulate a deal in time for Thursday-Friday’s meeting and talks will have to intensify further, ‘confirmation’ of the fact via a draft document pushed the Pound down across the board. Cable met some opposition at 1.2900, but breached defences to probe below the 21 DMA (1.2892) before finding a base ahead of week ago lows circa 1.2945, while Eur/Gbp rebounded further from recent sub-0.9050 troughs to around 0.9120 and fading as the Euro suffered knock-on losses against the Dollar and Yen etc. Ahead, the 3-way conference call between PM Johnson, European Commission and Council Presidents von der Leyen and Michel, but in truth the bar is now even higher for any real positives in terms of progress towards an agreement. Nevertheless, Sterling has clambered off its knees as wires report that the UK will not abandon negotiations immediately and a person said to be familiar with the situation suggests that a deal remains possible even if remote at this stage.

• USD – The Greenback is off best levels after yesterday’s relatively strong recovery rally extended overnight and amidst the early Pound sell-off noted above, with the DXY easing back from 63.670 and just above the 21 DMA (93.655), as several major counterparts pare losses. However, risk sentiment remains fragile following a turnaround Tuesday for many global stocks, no breakthrough on US fiscal stimulus, another pause in COVID-19 vaccine trials and ongoing geopolitical/diplomatic tensions, leaving the Buck with an underlying bid and the index holding close to 93.500.
• NZD/AUD – Not quite all change, but some respite for the Kiwi and Aussie that appears to have regained poise on psychological if not technical grounds given its resilience into 0.7150 and 1.0750 vs Antipodean and US rivals. Similarly, Nzd/Usd has managed to stay afloat close to 0.6650 irrespective of dovish RBNZ rhetoric overnight as Assistant Governor Hawkesby stated that guidance alluding to the prospect of NIRP is no bluff and a reiterated that a weaker Kiwi would help boost the economic recovery alongside other stimulative policy. Ahead, RBA Governor Lowe is due to speak just a few hours before September labour data.
• CAD/JPY/CHF/EUR – All narrowly mixed vs the Buck, as the Loonie meanders within a 1.3157-16 range and Yen hugs an even tighter 105.51-31 line inside decent option expiries from 105.20-15 to 106.00 (1.2 bn and 1.4 bn respectively). Elsewhere, the Franc has retreated further into 0.9133-56 parameters and Euro from 1.1800+ peaks sub-1.1750 where 1.2 bn expiry interest lies ahead of more ECB speakers.
• SCANDI/EM – The Crowns are benefiting from the aforementioned single currency weakness rather than specifics of broad upturn in risk appetite, but EMs are largely softer vs the Dollar bar the Yuan that could be deriving traction from stronger than expected Chinese lending and money supply metrics in conjunction with a PBoC official seeing a further GDP revival in Q3.
• RBNZ Assistant Governor Hawkesby said some economic data points are surprising to the upside, but the economy will require continued policy support. Lower exchange rate could provide further stimulus, lower bound on interest rate likely to change over time and will also depend on other policy tools being used. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent are subdued at present in a somewhat choppy session which did earlier feature the benchmarks experiencing a grinding bid post the IEA monthly oil market report which wrapped up this month’s 3-main releases and notably provided an alternative demand view. Specifically, the IEA report maintained 2020 & 2021 crude demand forecasts at largely unchanged levels from the previous report; however, they did highlight that demand growth is now beginning to slow given the resurgence in COVID-19. The roughly unchanged forecast contrasts yesterday’s OPEC release and the EIA one prior to that which both saw modest revisions lower to their 2020 and 2021 demand forecasts. At present, WTI and Brent are off session highs and have reverted back into negative territory lower by circa USD 0.20/bbl as things stand a move which is coinciding with a modest pullback in US equity futures (currently ~U/C) ahead of US participants’ entrance. Elsewhere, attention remain on various geopolitical tensions which have thus far seen the Azeri President comment that if Armenia attempt to take control of Azerbaijan gas pipelines than the outcome will be severe. Moving to metals, spot gold is modestly firmer this morning but remains capped by the USD 1900/oz mark which broadly coincides with the session high thus far. Separately and following reports that China ordered their domestic steel mills to stop purchasing Australian coal, on this, while Australia state they have not heard of any formal order from China, BHP announced they have received deferment requests from Chinese coal customers.

US Event Calendar

• 8:35am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to Economic Outlook Conference
• 9am: Fed’s Clarida Discusses U.S. Economic Outlook
• 10:30am: Fed’s Quarles Takes Part in Panel on Financial Stability
• 2pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to the Economic Club of New York
• 2:20pm: New York Fed’s Logan Speaks in SEC Webinar
• 3pm: Fed’s Quarles, Kaplan Speak on Financial Supervision
• 6pm: Fed’s Kaplan to Hold Virtual Town Hall

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’re into day 4 now of our fourth period of soul destroying isolation over the last 7 months. On Sunday night one of my twins (Jamie) had a 38.7C fever and we immediately managed to book a test. We were hoping to get the results within a day or two but in spite of staring at my phone waiting for the text it hasn’t arrived. Maybe if I got the new iPhone it would speed up its delivery! Meanwhile Jamie is now bouncing around the house, and mostly destroying it, with no fever. He and Eddie are going stir crazy and keep on saying “go mummy’s car” and pointing out the window. They are all desperate to be at school and poor Bronte isn’t getting walked. My wife is at the end of her tether and my home office is where I hide for most of the day. There are those with far worse problems but hopefully the results will come though today and be negative. If there’s anyone that’s had a very recent test in the U.K. and can tell me how long they waiting for the results I’d be interested to know.

Rather like our energy levels, the rally in global equity markets finally ran out of steam yesterday amidst doubts over whether a US stimulus deal would be reached anytime soon (not sure anyone should have been expecting it to be honest) and as investors reacted to the news we reported this time yesterday that J&J had paused its vaccine trial. By the close, the S&P 500 was down -0.63% as banks (-2.72%) struggled as reporting companies provided bleak outlooks on economy and on rising costs. The broad index fell in spite of an outperformance from tech stocks that saw the NASDAQ outperform but still fall -0.10%. Over in Europe there were similar falls as the STOXX 600 fell -0.55%. The dollar index had a strong performance as investors moved into safe havens, and by the close was up +0.50% in its strongest day for over 3 weeks.

Earnings season started with the large financial institutions as usual. JPMorgan Chase (-1.62%) and Citigroup (-4.80%) both reported better than expected trading revenue and beat on EPS, however credit reserves were larger than expected as worries over the economy persist. JPM’s reserve for credit losses was still nearly $34 billion, as the bank expects loan defaults to surge in the first half of next year once the effects of stimulus abate. Citigroup in particular forecast higher unemployment and a smaller recovery in GDP than last quarter which lowered their retail profits estimates. They also saw operating expenses hit a three year high following a regulatory penalty. BlackRock (+3.91%) rose after profits and revenues were well above estimates, with CEO Larry Fink noting that the pandemic has likely caused a rise in the savings rate and caused people to think longer term about investing. Elsewhere, Johnson & Johnson shares fell (-2.33%) as the pause in their vaccine trial, due to a participant falling ill, overshadowed the company’s otherwise positive earnings announcement. In similar news, Eli Lilly & Co. (-4.33%) had to pause enrollment in a clinical trial of its Covid-19 treatment after an unspecified potential safety concern.

In yesterday’s CoTD we highlighted that the bottom-up analyst consensus saw S&P 500 EPS growth rising from -32.6% yoy in Q2, which was the worst since 2008-09, to -18.6% in Q3. The majority of that improvement is almost exclusively being driven by much lower loan loss provisions from banks and a recovering energy sector. DB thinks the season will see another big beat as data surprises have been on the upside in the quarter yet earnings outside these two factors above are broadly flat (YoY) to last quarter. However there is perhaps less market upside this quarter, as the major difference is that now positioning is more neutral than it was 3 months ago when investors were very underweight. For more see the CotD here.

On stimulus, President Trump once again pushed Congressional leaders to deliver a significant amount of fiscal measures ahead of the election as he tweeted “STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!” This came shortly after Senate Majority Leader McConnell proposed a vote next week on one provision – allocating funds to the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses. However near term prospects for stimulus took a hit as House Speaker Pelosi told Democratic lawmakers that McConnell’s proposal was a non-starter and not nearly enough. This comes after reports over the weekend that the White House, particularly Secretary Mnuchin, and Speaker Pelosi were discussing a $1.8 trillion dollar deal, with talks ongoing. So Senate Republicans and the Trump Administration remain at odds on the path forward here with just under 3 weeks to Election Day.

Asian markets have largely taken Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Hang Seng (-0.27%), Shanghai Comp (-0.54%) and Kospi (-0.56%) all down while the Nikkei is up +0.11%. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are back up +0.44%. Elsewhere, AMC Entertainment, the world biggest cinema chain, was down -5.65% in after-hours trading on reports that the company is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. The news highlights the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on leisure, hospitality and entertainment industry.

In other overnight news, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin urged OPEC+ oil producers to stick to agreed production cuts. This comes six days before a small group of OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to review compliance with the current production cuts on a conference call scheduled for October 19. Oil prices are down c. -0.20% this morning.

On the coronavirus, the situation continued to deteriorate in Europe, with the Netherlands announcing a partial lockdown yesterday. Prime Minister Rutte announced that the sale of alcohol will be banned after 8pm, with bars, coffee shops and restaurants being closed all together. The government is also encouraging residents to avoid public transport if possible. Here in England, the number of hospitalised patients continued to rise, reaching a 4-month high yesterday of 3,905, and the opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer ratcheted up the pressure on the government by calling for a 2-to-3 week circuit-break lockdown that would overlap with the upcoming school half-term holiday. Overnight Sky News has reported that Northern Ireland is set to impose a “circuit breaker” lockdown for four weeks, with schools closing for two weeks. Meanwhile in France, as more patients are requiring intensive care, the country is mulling additional restrictions. As of Monday more than 1,500 COVID-19 patients were in intensive care and President Macron will speak on national television this evening on the situation. In Italy, a further 5,901 cases were reported yesterday with cases edging up but still relative muted compared to the current second wave hotspots in Europe. On the other side of world, following a small outbreak in China’s port city Quingdao, the city has mass tested about 5.6mn of its 9.5mn population in the last two days and aims to complete the tests for all population within 5 days. Maybe I should get tests for my family there! Anyway you’ll see the latest case numbers in the table below. Fatalities are in the pdf as usual.

There wasn’t a great deal of news on the election yesterday, though the odds of a Biden presidency rose further in FiveThirtyEight’s model to a new campaign high of 87%. That said, the impact of a potential blue wave on markets seems to have run its course for now as the 5s30s yield curve flattened yesterday by a further -2.9bps, having steepened to a 3-year high earlier in the month in anticipation of further fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile the VIX November future, which to an extent has acted as a proxy for concerns over a contested election, snapped a run of 4 successive declines but remained flat yesterday. Assuming Biden’s polling remains where it is (currently +10.0pts in the RCP average), attention will increasingly remain on the Senate outcome and what that might mean for possible stimulus legislation next year. The Democrats remain the favourites to win control (at 69% in the FiveThirtyEight model) but there are still a number of very tight races.

Sovereign bonds continued their relentless advance yesterday as yet more records were set in Europe. By the close, 10yr Italian BTPs had fallen -1.9bps to another all-time low of 0.658%, as had Greek 10yr yields which were down -3.0bps to 0.785%. Yields fell in core countries too, with those on 10yr bunds down -1.1bps at a 5-month low, while Treasuries reopened following yesterday’s holiday as 10yr yields fell -4.7bps.

Elsewhere, sterling weakened by -0.97% against the dollar yesterday as the Brexit newsflow suggested little progress had been made in the ongoing trade negotiations. The currency took a tumble in particular after a headline came through from Prime Minister Johnson’s spokesman that Johnson had told the cabinet that the UK was “ready and willing to move forward with an Australian style outcome”, i.e. without a formal trade agreement. Today, Johnson will be holding a call with European Commission President Von der Leyen and Council President Michel to discuss Brexit, which comes ahead of the EU leaders’ summit tomorrow, where the issue is on the agenda for discussion. Previously, Johnson has spoken of October 15 as the point by which an agreement needs to have been reached, so all eyes will be on proceedings over the remainder of the week for further headlines.

In the US, September’s CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, in line with expectations, as the year-on-year figure also rose to an expected +1.4%. In the UK meanwhile, unemployment in the 3 months through August rose to 4.5% (vs. 4.3% expected) and the total number of hours worked in that time frame (which gives a better indicator of actual labour supply) was only up to 891k, which still leaves it around 15% below pre-pandemic levels. Finally in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, they upgraded their global growth projection for this year to a smaller -4.4% contraction from -4.9% last time around back in June.

To the day ahead now, and there’s an array of central bank speakers, including ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Mersch, Lane, Villeroy, Hernandez de Cos, the Fed’s Clarida, Quarles, Barkin, Kaplan, and the BoE’s Haldane. Earnings releases include UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, ASML, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and United Airlines. And today’s data releases include Euro Area industrial production for August and the US PPI reading for September.