Futures Hit Record, Nasdaq Rises On One Year Anniversary Of VIX 82

Exactly one year ago today, the financial world as we know it was on the verge of collapse, with the Dow Jones plunging to 20,000 after the VIX exploded to a record 82.69.

Fast forward to today, when the market is about 66% higher, and on Tuesday morning futures on both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones edged higher hitting fresh all time highs – the Dow notched its sixth consecutive all-time high on Monday on optimism over a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package –  for the second day in a row while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 rose about 0.5% by 730 a.m. ET, pointing to an extension of a rebound in technology stocks that were at the heart of February’s selloff. The Nasdaq 100 is still about 5% below its Feb. 12 record closing high. Traders were looking ahead to today’s industrial production and retail sales data (which as a reminder, will be a huge miss), while the Federal Reserve was set to kick off its two-day policy meeting.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Europe rose 0.5% with autos, financial services and banking sectors the strongest performers after data showed investor confidence in Germany’s economic recovery improved after the government laid out a path toward ending coronavirus lockdowns.

European energy shares dropped for a second day with oil prices lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 Energy Index fell 0.3% dropping the most among sectors and tracking losses for oil futures. Shares dragging the index down the most by points: Total -0.5%, Siemens Energy -1.5%, Royal Dutch Shell in Amsterdam -0.2%, Equinor -0.5%, Vestas Wind -0.25, BP -0.1%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Volkswagen shares gain as much as 6.5% as the German carmaker said it is aiming to become the global electric-vehicle market leader by 2025 at the latest.
• Varta shares rise as much as 12% after reports that it plans to produce batteries for high- performance electric vehicles, a segment where Warburg says the German firm stands to gain a “solid market share.”
• Iliad shares surge as much as 6.7% after results, with Goldman Sachs saying that the telecom firm’s 4Q Ebitda beat is “reassuring” on the ongoing trajectory of improved free cash flow.
• MorphoSys shares drop as much as 15% after posting FY results and issuing 2021 guidance that RBC said was “disappointing.” The broker said that while biopharma’s results were in-line, FY 2021 revenue guidance is for EU150-200m vs consensus of EU275m.

Traders looked past the turmoil in vaccine rollouts and appeared to shrug off decisions by Germany, France and Italy to suspend the AstraZeneca Plc vaccine, ahead of a meeting of European health ministers to discuss the future of the Covid-19 shot.

Earlier in the session, markets saw modest gains in Japan and China, where investors were watching for a possible broader crackdown on the internet sector. The MSCI Asia Pac index was up 0.6% while Japan’s Topix index closed with a 0.6% gain as a tech sector rally boosted Asian stocks higher, following a rebound in the Nasdaq 100 amid a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields. Internet giants Meituan and Xiaomi were among the biggest contributors to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, while healthcare stocks gained the most as a group. The rotation into economically sensitive firms took a pause, with Hong Kong insurer AIA Group and Japanese automaker Toyota Motor being the big drags on the benchmark. Mainland Chinese stocks whipsawed between gains and losses to end as Asia’s best-performing market. Stock gauges in Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan rose more than 0.5%.

Japan’s Topix advanced to its highest since May 1991, in its sixth-straight day of gains, as investors bought technology stocks while U.S. Treasury yields dipped. Electronics and telecommunications were the biggest boosts to the Topix, while banks and automakers fell. Nintendo extended gains to a second day after a Bloomberg report that the company is gearing up for record software and Switch console sales in the coming year. SoftBank Group and chip supply-chain stocks drove the Nikkei 225 higher. Investors are awaiting key policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve later this week. The recent climbs in bond yields has become a key issue for concern for central bankers around the world. “As long as the pace of the rise in long-term U.S. yields is moderate, the understanding is that days of higher local equity prices will continue, driven by buying centered around stocks with good earnings,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management in Tokyo. While tech led the day Tuesday, Japanese stocks have benefited this year from a global rotation toward economically sensitive sectors. The Topix is up 9.8% so far in 2021, compared with a 5.7% gain in the S&P 500, which rose to a fresh record Monday. Following a round of buying into Japan’s cheap shares “the environment is favorable for money flow into stocks with a clear growth story,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities Co

Treasury yields were steady ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday.  Fears about an overheating economy and a jump-forward in interest rate expectations have increased scrutiny on the Fed meeting, where policymakers are likely to raise economic forecasts and repeat their pledge to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. Yield curves bull flatten slightly led by the German long end, Italian bonds underperform ahead of a BTP exchange.

Investors have slightly increased their cash allocation, deeming that inflation and ‘taper tantrums’ could topple the record rally in financial markets, BofA’s March fund manager survey showed on Tuesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied with the greenback trading mixed verus its Group-of-10 peers; the Swiss franc and Swedish krona led the advance. The pound dropped against all its major peers after the EU began legal action against the U.K. over a key part of the Brexit deal relating to Northern Ireland. Sweden’s krona advanced after inflation expectations rose and amid corporate hedging flows. The Swedish economy has withstood the second wave of Covid infection relatively well, supported by extensive economic policy measures, says Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves in a monetary-policy hearing in parliament’s Riksdag Committee on Finance; Deputy Governor Per Jansson says he “believes that the risk of higher inflation is about as great as the risk of lower inflation.” Commodity currencies fell as oil prices retreated for a third day to trade below $65 a barrel, hurt by weakness in the market’s near-term pricing structure and a firmer dollar.

In commodities, Brent Crude fell 0.9% to $68.28 after Libya hinted it was back in the oil game after years of false starts and setbacks. Energy facilities shut or damaged during its civil war were reopened last year and the OPEC member has managed to keep its production above 1 million barrels a day since November. Meanwhile, the torrent of Iranian oil that’s been gushing into China in recent weeks is crowding out imports from other nations and threatening to complicate efforts by the OPEC+ alliance to tighten supply in the global market.

With the global economy on a path out of the pandemic, focus turns to the Fed’s communications on Wednesday, which will include fresh economic and interest-rate projections. Reflation trades stand to benefit if the central bank maintains a hands-off approach to the recent rise in yields. Bets on a faster economic recovery have already helped push one market gauge of inflation to its highest level since 2008, and a renewed climb in yields could spur the rotation from growth to value stocks.

“Fundamentally, the focus will still be on the growth recovery in the coming months and macropolicy — both fiscal and monetary — will continue to be supportive,” Cecilia Chan, chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at HSBC Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV.

Looking at the day ahead, there’ll be a number of data releases from the US, including February’s retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation, as well as March’s NAHB housing market index. In Europe, we got the March’s ZEW survey for Germany, and the final February CPI reading for France.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,968.75
• Brent futures down 0.9% to $68.28/bbl
• Gold spot little changed at $1,731.92
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.91
• MXAP up 0.6% to 208.77
• MXAPJ up 0.7% to 694.85
• Nikkei up 0.5% to 29,921.09
• Topix up 0.6% to 1,981.50
• Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 29,027.69
• Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,446.73
• Sensex up 0.2% to 50,506.37
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,827.14
• Kospi up 0.7% to 3,067.17
• SXXP Index up 0.4% to 424.84
• German 10Y yield little changed at -0.34%
• Euro little changed at $1.1927

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Hedge funds offloaded the most Treasuries in nine months in January, foreshadowing a selloff in U.S. bonds that occurred just weeks later. The Cayman Islands, seen as a proxy for hedge funds and other leveraged accounts, dumped $49 billion of U.S. sovereign bonds, making it the largest net seller of the debt that month, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department
• A week after the ECB pledged to speed up the pace of its asset purchases, BOE policy makers are expected to maintain theirs on Thursday. They are shrugging off an increase in market borrowing costs that pushed the yield on U.K. 10-year bonds to the highest since before the pandemic started last year The ECB won’t allow interest rates to rise too soon while the economy still grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, according to its chief economist
• U.S. interest payments on the national debt fell last year, to $345 billion or 1.6% of gross domestic product. They’re on track to shrink further in 2021 — even after all the pandemic spending, plus a debt-market selloff that’s taken 10-year Treasury yields to the highest in more than 12 months
• The EU will start plotting its strategy to gradually lift coronavirus lockdowns, even as an AstraZeneca Plc vaccine health scare risks causing additional delays to the bloc’s botched immunization campaign
• European health ministers will discuss the future of AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine after a growing number of countries suspended its use to examine side effects, potentially throwing the region’s already slow inoculation campaign further off track
• The French economy is weathering the Covid pandemic and government restrictions better than previously forecast, putting it on a path to stronger growth this year, the Bank of France said
• France is planning to tap the market for green bonds for the second time, confirming its position as the world’s biggest issue of debt designed to fund climate and environmental projects

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded higher following the positive performance on Wall Street where the S&P 500 and DJIA extended on record levels and the Nasdaq led the advances as tech and growth were favoured as yields eased, with stronger than expected NY Fed Empire Manufacturing data also conducive to the upbeat mood. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was firmer with tech and healthcare spearheading the broad gains across most industries aside from the commodity-related sectors including energy following a recent pullback in oil prices. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) edged mild gains and briefly reclaimed the 30k level where it then met resistance, with upside also capped heading into the decision whether to lift the State of Emergency for the capital region and the outcome of the BoJ’s policy review. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) conformed to the rising tide across regional stocks and with firm gains in Xiaomi after FTSE Russell proposed the Co. will be eligible for re-inclusion to its indices from June 21st, while the mainland initially lagged amid concerns of tighter regulations with China to step up supervision of the internet platform economy and data ownership, as well as strengthen antitrust regulatory powers. Finally, 10yr JGBs held on to its gains overnight following the bull flattening stateside and despite the positive mood across regional stocks, while softer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs did little to dent price action.

Top Asian News

• Alibaba-Backed Robo Adviser Seeks to Tame China Day Traders
• Hong Kong Tells U.S. Consulate to Test Staff After Two Cases
• Saudi Arabia Implements Expat Labor Reforms — With Caveats
• Hong Kong Overhaul Can Rein in Tycoons, Pro-Beijing Party Says
• Philippine Fried Chicken King Targets Expansion After Covid

European equities opened the session with modest gains across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%), in-fitting with Asia’s positive lead and the gains seen on Wall Street after the European close yesterday. Stateside, US equity futures are trading mixed but with a slight counter-cyclical bias as the RTY (-0.4%) resides as the underperformer vs the NQ (+0.4%). Regarding US stocks, a BofA survey suggests only 15% of people think that US equities are in a bubble. This is of note as with the added stimulus from the USD 1.9trln bill and consumer savings US equities may continue on an upwards trend. However, fresh fundamental catalysts remain limited ahead of a week with a plethora of Central Bank updates. Back to Europe, sectors opened mostly in the green with the underperformance in Oil & Gas and Basic resources persisting throughout the European morning. The Autos sector (+1.8%) is the morning leader followed by Real Estate (+1.4%), Financial Services (+1.2%) and Retail (+1.0%), with the latter likely on the reopening trade. In terms of individual movers, Zalando (+4.4%) have seen upside after they announced an upward revision to their FY20 revenue to 23% and an expectation to continue to grow profitably. Moreover Volkswagen (+6.0%), who could be partly responsible for the upside in automobiles and consumer discretionary, are firmer after the Co. announced they anticipate the business to significantly recover vs 2020 whilst announcing ambitious EV and battery plans, with FY21 guidance pointing to 1mln EV sales. VW stated they are to introduce a unified cell globally in 2023 whilst investing EUR 46bln into electric mobility over the next 5 years highlighting the prospects of growth. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca (+3.3%) are in the green despite a range of countries, such as Germany and France, provisionally halting the rollout of the vaccine citing health concerns. However, despite this many outlets namely, the Italian Medicines Regulator and the EMA have stated the benefit/risk ratio is positive. Lastly, Siemens Gamesa (-1.0%) is one of the laggards after CEO Nauen stated that turbine makers are being pressured by elevated input prices and developers looking for price reductions and hence putting pressure on renewable Cos.

Top European News

• NatWest Faces U.K Money-Laundering Charge Over Cash Deposits
• Vodafone Unit Vantage Tightens Price Range for Frankfurt Listing
• World’s Biggest Green Debt Issuer Selling Its Second-Ever Bond
• Bank of England Breaks From ECB’s Effort to Curb Market Rates

In FX, the Greenback remains elevated and firmer against most G10 counterparts, but capped by further consolidation in US Treasuries and other global bonds awaiting a host of March Central Bank policy meetings that kick off with the Fed tomorrow. Moreover, the Dollar is finding several psychological levels tough to breach, including 92.000 in the index ahead of top tier data, like retail sales and ip on FOMC day 1, while also keeping a close eye on supply via Usd 24 bn 20 year notes for any yield and curve repercussions. DXY is now nearer the base of a 91.974-755 range.

• GBP/AUD/NZD – Sterling is swooning again and struggling to retain 1.3800+ status vs the Buck, but suffering heavier losses in Eur/Gbp cross terms well below 0.8600 after narrowly failing to reach 0.8550 and trip stops that were said to be waiting for a breach of the half round number yesterday. Still no obvious change or deterioration in UK fundamentals from an independent perspective or relative to the Eurozone, bar Brexit-related issues over the NI border, so Pound underperformance looks more technical. Conversely, dovish RBA minutes and even more contingency for a first rate hike via wages hitting 3% has dragged the Aussie further back towards 0.7700 against the Greenback and keeping Aud/Usd rooted around 1.0750 even though the Kiwi has been undermined by weak NZ credit card spending and Nzd/Usd is losing sight of 0.7200 in advance of Q4 current account data.
• EUR/JPY/CHF/CAD – All rangebound vs their US rival, with the Euro contained between 1.1943-14 parameters and not really gleaning any momentum from moderately better than expected ZEW economic sentiment or current conditions. Meanwhile, the Yen is even more confined from 109.29-10 awaiting Japanese trade data and the BoJ, the Franc is hovering just below 0.9250 and Loonie is meandering within a 1.2501-1.2467 band in the run up to Canadian CPI on Wednesday following a loss of impetus from upbeat jobs data alongside the ongoing retracement in crude.
• SCANDI/EM – Not quite all change for the Sek, but in start contrast to Monday’s actual CPI readings, Swedish money market inflation expectations rose and Riksbank’s Jansson sees more upside risk than downside going forward. In terms of growth, Governor Ingves has talked up the resilience of the economy in the face of the 2nd COVID-19 wave to keep Eur/Sek anchored either side of 10.1500, as Eur/Nok rotates circa 10.0900 in wake of the Norwegian Government downgrading its non-oil GDP forecast for the year. Elsewhere, the Try has rebounded another 10 big figures or so from yesterday’s low to test 7.5150 amidst reports from Turkey’s Finance Minister confirming plans to set up a so called price stability committee to work in conjunction with the CBRT to that aim and originally mentioned by President Erdogan.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have continued the retreat seen during the APAC session despite a relatively tentative market tone and light news-flow for the complex. That being said, prices are seemingly impacted from the potential demand hinderance arising from the suspension of the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine across a number of OECD countries, potentially translating to more prolonged restriction measures than expected, with cases continuing to rise across the Eurozone – a risk that has previously been voiced by energy agencies alongside OPEC. WTI May resides around USD 64.50/bbl (vs high USD 65.43/bbl) while its Brent counterpart trades just below USD 68/bbl (vs high USD 68.94/bbl). Looking ahead, the complex will continue eyeing vaccine developments alongside the overarching sentiment across markets. Looking ahead, traders will be eyeing the weekly Private Inventories, albeit participants should be cognizant of the lingering distortions from the Texas Deep Freeze. Analysts at ING also suggest that the “WTI forward curve is showing signs of weakness, with the prompt spread having spent the last three days trading in contango”. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver vary, with the latter moving as a function of the earlier firmer Buck and the former awaiting the FOMC showdown tomorrow alongside any fresh macro news flow in the meantime. Spot gold remains around 1,733/oz (vs high 1,737/oz), as has been the case throughout the larger part of the European morning. Over to base metals, LME copper trades softer on account of a directionless risk tone, but off worst levels as the Dollar retreats. Dalian iron ore futures overnight gained over 5% as China’s top steel-making city lifted its smog alert. Meanwhile, Shanghai aluminium futures hit a 9-and-a-half year highs over some supply concerns.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Feb. Import Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 0.9%; Import Price Index MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.4%
  • Export Price Index YoY, est. 4.4%, prior 2.3%; Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 2.5%
• 8:30am: Feb. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.5%, prior 5.3%
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 5.9%
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. -0.5%, prior 6.1%
  • Retail Sales Control Group, est. -0.6%, prior 6.0%
• 9:15am: Feb. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 1.0%
• 10am: Jan. Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
• 10am: March NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 84, prior 84

DB”s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I had my first covid test yesterday and now have to self-isolate yet again (not that I was planning on going anywhere). I’ve got a long delayed back injection under sedation on Thursday and need to prove I’m virus free. Trying to turn myself into Bryson DeChambeau has not been a straight line journey. 8 months after starting doing weights and trying to swing the golf club harder in practise has been good for my physique but not for my back! I’ve no idea if it’s good or bad for my golf though as the courses have been closed most of the time over the last 5 months!

Injections were the main talking point in markets yesterday as equities initially gave up their opening gains as investors were forced to grapple with new issues on the vaccine rollout with the AstraZeneca jab. However after Europe went home, US markets, which aren’t relying on the AZ vaccine, powered back (S&P 500 +0.65%) to its third successive record high after being as low as -0.5% after the vaccine news. To further drive home the disparity, as Europe announced the pause in AZ vaccinations more US states including Florida, Connecticut and New York have announced plans to reduce the eligibility age for vaccines in the coming weeks.

Technology shares in particular gained as they continue to rebound following the NASDAQ’s -10.5% correction earlier this month. The tech-focused index rose +1.05% yesterday, while the heavily concentrated NYFANG index rose +1.26%. The reopening trade was also impressive, with leisure names like Las Vegas Sands (+6.0%), MGM resorts (+5.1%) and Royal Caribbean (+4.8%) gaining ground, along with airlines such as United (+8.3%) and American Airlines (+7.7%) among the best performers on the day. On the other hand, cyclical sectors including energy (-1.25%) and banks (-0.82%) led the declines as oil prices and yields fell back slightly. It was much the same story in Europe, with the cyclical underperformance causing the STOXX 600 to end flat despite of having reached a post-pandemic high following the open. Bourses across the continent fell back marginally following the vaccine news with the DAX (-0.28%), CAC (-0.17%) and IBEX (-0.11%) pricing in caution rather than worry. Interestingly the STOXX 600 travel and leisure index finished the day up +2.21% and at its highest closing level ever.

Overnight in Asia, markets have taken Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+0.58%), Hang Seng (+0.68%), Shanghai Comp (+0.38%) and Kospi (+0.67%) all up. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.03% while those on Nasdaq are up +0.38%. Yields on 10y USTs are down -1.2bps to 1.594% while Australian (-9.7bps) and New Zealand (-7.7bps) 10yrs are down more. The decline in Australia’s 10y yields came as minutes from the RBA’s latest policy meeting showed that the central bank thinks that there may be a temporary pause in the pace of improvement in the labour market, as many firms had already adjusted the size of their workforces.

Looking at the vaccine issues in more detail now, Germany, France, Spain and Italy (amongst others) all moved to suspend use of the AstraZeneca vaccine following a number of reports of blood clots and even a few deaths after people had received their doses. In a statement, Germany’s Paul-Ehrlich Institute said that their experts “see a striking accumulation of a special form of very rare cerebral vein thrombosis (sinus vein thrombosis) in connection with a deficiency of blood platelets (thrombocytopenia) and bleeding in temporal proximity to vaccinations” with the AZ vaccine. Reports suggest it is 7 serious cases out of 1.6 million doses over 6 weeks that is causing this. Further reading suggests one would expect 3-4 cases per million per year of such an issue in the general population. We should bear in mind though that studies reported by the Heart Research Institute suggest that in France and Holland 30-70% of people who have been admitted to ICU with covid developed blood clots in the deep veins of the legs or in the lungs. So given the low number of reported cases of thrombotic issues post taking the AZ versus those seen in the general population and given the risks of getting them with covid, it does feel like this mass suspension is very cautious. We will see if there is any additional data that is over and above that seen so far.

The suspension will last until the European Medicines Agency have evaluated the data on this, but that shouldn’t be too long, with the EMA’s safety committee reviewing the information today, and holding an extraordinary meeting on Thursday “to conclude on the information gathered and any further actions that may need to be taken”.

In the UK, the deputy chair of the JCVI said that in spite of administering 11 million AZ vaccine doses, “there has been no demonstrable difference in the number of blood clots since the vaccine was introduced”. Furthermore, Reuters reported the director of the US NIH saying that although he hadn’t personally seen the data on the AZ issues in Europe, he had been “pretty reassured” by statements from the regulators in Europe that it was occurring by chance rather than due to the vaccine. In addition, it’s worth noting that the European Medicines Agency themselves said in a statement that they currently remained of the view that “the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing COVID-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.”

With nearly 381 million vaccine doses deployed worldwide over the last 3 and a bit months it’s actually remarkable that more scares haven’t emerged and it’s a testament to the vaccine manufacturers that there hasn’t been. The problem with this incident is that it’s going to be hard to persuade Europeans that there is no smoke without fire with regards to the AZ vaccine given the previous travails and misinformation even if vaccinations resume soon.

Back to markets and with a slight risk-off sentiment prevailing yesterday, sovereign bond markets advanced throughout the day, and yields on 10yr Treasuries moved -1.9bps lower to close at 1.606%. The decline was primarily driven by real rates (-1.8bps) rather that inflation (-0.2bps). There were similar moves in Europe, and yields on 10yr bunds (-2.8bps), OATs (-3.2bps) and gilts (-2.4bps) all fell back with at least half of the moves seen immediately after the vaccine headlines.

Though the big focus in Europe was on the vaccine issues, Brexit returned to headlines yesterday after the EU began legal action against the UK over what it considers a breach of what the two sides agreed in the Brexit deal. To summarise what’s happened, the deal prevents a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but has led to new trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, including checks on certain goods flowing between the two. However, the UK government have unilaterally said that they’re extending the grace periods whereby some bureaucratic requirements can be avoided, which the EU is regarding as a breach of the treaty. As a result, the EU have sent a letter of formal notice to the UK, which the UK has a month to respond to. In theory, this could eventually lead to fines or retaliatory tariffs being imposed, but that’s a long way off and the hope will be that the two sides can come to an agreement before that, as they did last year over the UK’s controversial proposals in the Internal Market Bill.

There wasn’t a great deal of data out yesterday, though the New York Fed’s Empire state manufacturing survey rose to 17.4 in March (vs. 15.0 expected), which is the strongest reading since November 2018. Notably on the inflation picture, the prices paid reading rose to their highest level since May 2011, at 64.4, which will add to concerns about the potential for faster US inflation in the coming months.

To the day ahead now, and there’ll be a number of data releases from the US, including February’s retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation, as well as March’s NAHB housing market index. From Europe, there’ll also be March’s ZEW survey for Germany, and the final February CPI reading for France.