Futures Hit All Time High In Sleepy, Overnight Session

For the second day in a row, U.S. equity futures are starting the day barely changed, up just 0.1% and at new all time highs, alongside Treasury yields as earnings reports added to positive sentiment regarding an economic recovery in the developed world despite some disappointment in the latest TSLA results. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record levels on Monday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq completing a full recovery from its 11% correction that began in February.

At 07:15 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 12 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 4.5 points or 0.1% to 4,184, trimming earlier gains that pushed the Emini as high as 4,192.5, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 20 points, or 0.14%.

Russell 2000 futs led advances in the premarket as yields rose across the curve, while staying below recent peaks. The dollar increased for the first time in three days.

Some notable pre-market movers:

• Gamestop soared 8% in early New York trading after completing an “at-the-market” equity offering. Amazon Inc., which will release its profit report this week, also climbed.
• Tesla dropped about 3% in premarket trading after it marginally beat analysts’ expectations for quarterly revenue, helped by a jump in environmental credit sales to other automakers and liquidating some bitcoins.
• Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose in premarket as Bitcoin extended its bounce back from recent lows and after Tesla renewed its commitment to the token.

Four out of five S&P 500 Index companies that have announced results so far have either met or beaten expectations, and after soft results from Tesla on Monday, all eyes will be on Microsoft and Alphabet which are due to report after trading closes. Apple, Facebook and Amazon.com are slated to report later in the week. The five companies combined account for about 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. While equity investors offered a sluggish response to the reports, it only served to highlight traders’ lofty expectations than doubt over the outlook. Some of the names reporting earnings Tuesday include Alphabet, Invesco, MSCI and Visa.

“Muted stock-price reaction to the robust numbers is largely due to already elevated expectations going into the reporting season,” strategists led by Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “The strong results give us greater confidence that (U.S.) corporate profits will grow more than 30% in 1Q.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.2% as of 10:37 a.m. in London, with travel and leisure stocks rising the most among sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Evolution Gaming shares jump as much as 11.1% after the company topped both revenue and margin estimates, with Live Casino reaching a record high growth rate, Morgan Stanley (overweight) says after the company’s 1Q earnings report.
• Michelin shares fall as much as 3.3% in Paris and the French tiremaker is the day’s worst-performing stock on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index as analysts note an in-line 1Q sales update and see limited changes to consensus.
• Stratec shares rise as much as 16.1%, the most in just over a year, after the automation solutions company reported 1Q results that Commerzbank says were a strong beat, with newsflow expected to remain positive.
• DSV Panalpina shares soar as much as 9.9% to a record after the Danish company reported 1Q results that exceeded expectations, prompting higher FY guidance. DSV also announced the $4.1b acquisition of Agility Logistics, a move welcomed by analysts.
• EDF shares rise as much as 6.6% in Paris following a report that a deal on the energy group’s reform is close, which Barclays says is likely to viewed “very positively.” France and the European Commission agree they need to “go fast” in their talks over the reorganization of EDF, Le Figaro reported, citing an unnamed person close to the matter.

In Asia, equities benchmarks in Shanghai and Taiwan climbed, while peers in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea slipped, as Asian stocks headed toward their first decline in four trading sessions with investor sentiment weighed down by the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and China’s widening internet crackdown. Japan was among the worst performers, sending the Topix Index down by 0.8%. An analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities is wary about the country’s domestic demand as it repeatedly entered into states of emergency to control the pandemic. Political uncertainty also put investors on edge given that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga faces weakening support. Also dragging down Asia’s benchmark was Chinese tech heavyweight Tencent, after the country’s antimonopoly probe into Meituan cast a shadow on other internet bellwethers. That said, Meituan erased an earlier decline of as much as 2.8%, rebounding to close up 2.6%. Meanwhile, the health care sector dropped 1.3%, set to be the biggest loser on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index on Tuesday. China’s drug maker Wuxi Biologics Cayman Inc. was one of the biggest decliners, as the stock sank after shareholders sold holdings worth $1.5 billion. “Asia-Pacific markets remain jittery about surging coronavirus cases in India and new state-of-emergency measures in Japan,” said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX. “Investors digested mixed earnings from Tesla and Huarong’s credit downgrade, both of which weighed on sentiment.” However, India stocks rose for a second day on optimism the U.S. decision to offer vaccine support will aid the nation’s effort to control the world’s largest surge in coronavirus infections.

Japanese stocks fell as the nation’s relatively slow vaccination rollout left investors with few incentives to pick up shares. Electronics makers and chemical-related companies were leading drags on the Topix, which dipped back below the closing level from Friday when the gauge capped its worst weekly rout since February. SoftBank Group and Shin-Etsu Chemical helped push down the Nikkei 225 Stock Average. Shares held losses after the Bank of Japan left its main policy levers unchanged while cutting its price forecast for this year as the nation enters a renewed virus emergency. Investor sentiment remained weak despite a two-day rally on Wall Street that lifted U.S. shares to a record amid solid corporate earnings and confidence that the Federal Reserve will remain accommodative. “Japan being slow in responding to the coronavirus outbreak is serving as a reason for the market’s move,” said Fumio Matsumoto, chief strategist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But it’s more because the performance of Japanese equities has become dull that foreign investors are losing their interest in local stocks.” Investors also remained reluctant to buy shares amid signs of weakening support for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Losses in three special elections for parliamentary seats over the weekend have left the leader in search of a way to quickly boost support or risk joining a long list of short-serving premiers. The result “could possibly be seen as cracks in the wall for Suga and his administration,” said Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA Securities Japan Co. in Tokyo. “With how the government has been handling the Covid situation — from the state of emergencies, the vaccination process to the Olympics — clearly the people are disgruntled.”

Meanwhile, the latest GDP data this week are expected to show growth accelerated to an annualized 6.8% in the first quarter. A Conference Board measure Tuesday may show U.S. consumer confidence surged for a fourth successive months to the highest level since March 2020. That said, such reports aren’t shifting the Federal Reserve’s highly accommodative stance, with the central bank expected to keep policy unchanged at this week’s meeting.

In rates, Treasury yields were cheaper by more than 1bp across long-end of the curve after futures drifted lower during Asia session and European morning. Price action and volumes were muted as Japan’s Golden Week holiday nears. 10-year yield around 1.58% is ~1bp cheaper on the day; gilts broadly keep pace with bunds little changed. Treasury’s 7-year note sale at 1pm ET concludes a compressed auction cycle ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed for the first day in three after slipping to a two-month low on Monday, and the U.S. currency advanced against all its Group-of-10 peers; the euro extended a loss in European trading. The pound fell the most in nearly a week against a stronger dollar, as allegations of sleaze continued to swirl around the U.K. government. Sweden’s krona largely shrugged off the Riksbank which underlined its commitment to keeping monetary stimulus in place, as it pointed to a “slightly brighter” economic outlook but warned that the pandemic “is not over”. The yen slipped as Bank of Japan’s new forecasts showed Haruhiko Kuroda will fail to reach stable 2% price growth during his term. The Australian dollar pared a decline as gains in oil and iron ore helped revive demand for commodity currencies.

In commodities, oil and the dollar also rose. Copper led the Bloomberg Commodity Index higher, as the growth-sensitive metal extended a rally on the U.S. administration’s plans for a large infrastructure package. Oil climbed after OPEC+ projected a strong recovery beyond near-term demand destruction from India’s Covid-19 surge.

Looking at the day ahead, there are an array of earnings releases to watch out for including Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Texas Instruments, UPS, Amgen, Starbucks, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric and 3M. Data highlights from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April, the FHFA house price index for February and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for April. Central bank speakers include Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,184.25
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 440.25
• German 10Y yield rose 0.4bps to -0.251%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.2061
• Brent Futures up 0.8% to $66.15/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,778.60
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 91.03
• MXAP down 0.4% to 208.32
• MXAPJ little changed at 702.48
• Nikkei down 0.5% to 28,991.89
• Topix down 0.8% to 1,903.55
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 28,941.54
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,442.61
• Sensex up 1.0% to 48,885.83
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,033.83
• Kospi little changed at 3,215.42

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Central bankers worldwide will be watching the Wednesday decision of the Federal Reserve for signals on timing of QE taper
• China’s local authorities have slowed the pace of debt sales to finance infrastructure projects this year, evidence of a gradual tightening of fiscal policy as the government shifts its focus toward risk control
• The Fed is expected to announce it will begin trimming its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases before the end of the year as the U.S. economy recovers strongly from Covid-19, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg
• Prime Minister Mario Draghi has just a few days to refine what he calls a “historic” plan to rescue Italy’s economy from the pandemic and fix long-lasting structural weaknesses, with 261.1 billion euros ($315.6 billion) of chiefly European Union funds
• France and Germany support the U.S. proposal of a 21% minimum tax on multinational companies, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz told Le Figaro and Die Zeit in a joint interview released on Tuesday
• Insurers, pension systems and high-grade credit managers in the U.S. and Europe are buying bigger amounts of junk-rated debt to offset shrinking yields, forcing high-yield investors to jostle for allocations of BB rated bonds — the safest and largest part of their class with 60% of the market
• The U.K.’s sale of long-dated debt couldn’t have come at a better time. Solid over-subscription rates in recent offerings and juicy yields suggest demand for gilts maturing in 2051 on Tuesday is going to be healthy. Supply, meanwhile, promises to be limited after the U.K. pared bond sale plans for the fiscal year on Friday, an added boon for investors

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks failed to take impetus from the mostly positive close and fresh record levels stateside, whereby the regional bourses remained cautious heading into the looming risk events and amid ongoing COVID-19 concerns. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was pressured with the index dragged lower by underperformance in tech and industrials but with losses stemmed as the mining-related sectors were kept afloat by the recent surge in copper and iron ore prices, while M&A newsflow provided some support with Bingo Industries underpinned after it entered into scheme implementation deed regarding the AUD 2.3bln buyout offer from MIRA and Tabcorp was also lifted after it received a proposal valued at AUD 3.5bln from Entain. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was subdued amid the ongoing state of emergency for key areas and unsurprising BoJ policy announcement although the downside was cushioned by a softer currency. Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) conformed to the uninspired mood initially in-spite of a surge in Industrial Profits for March which was likely due to base effects and with sentiment also dampened by crackdown concerns for the tech sector after China’s market regulator launched an anti-monopoly investigation into Meituan. However, HSBC shares were a notable mover with gains of around 2% following strong Q1 earnings; and the Shanghai Composite did recoup this earlier losses by the close. Finally, 10yr JGBs languished after the prior day’s retreat beneath the 151.50 level, with demand hampered after T-note futures slightly pulled back and following the lack of fireworks at the BoJ policy announcement where the central bank refrained from any policy tweaks but lowered the current fiscal year Core CPI estimate, as expected.

Top Asian News

• Macquarie Buys Australian Waste Firm Bingo for $1.76 Billion (2)
• HSBC Signals It May Have to Hike Pay in Asia Amid Talent War
• Kotak Mahindra Shares Fall as India Caps Founder-CEOs’ Term
• Hong Kong to Reopen Bars, Nightclubs to Vaccinated People

Major bourses in Europe have been drifting lower (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%) following yet another uninspiring cash open in what is seemingly the quiet before the storm as earnings are set to pick up pace and the FOMC looms. State-side, futures are relatively flat with the RTY eking ahead as participants await the US entrance alongside a slew of corporate updates. Back to Europe, the region sees no standout performers, although the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.1%) is kept afloat amid earnings from heavyweights HSBC (+1.9%) and BP (+1.1%), with the former topping its revenue and profit forecasts and announcing ECL release of USD 400mln vs a charge of USD 3bln last year. Meanwhile, BP is bolstered by all-around firm metrics alongside the announcement of a USD 500mln share buyback in Q2, whilst its CEO said a pre-COVID level dividend could be on the table next year. Sectors in Europe are mixed with no overarching theme. Travel & Leisure reside as the top performer – with reports suggesting that UK Transport Secretary Shapps has called for a meeting between G7 counterparts at the June 11th summit to form a global travel system that would form international standards for ‘green list’ countries accepted digital vaccination/test proof as a condition of entry. Further, Sweden’s Evolution Gaming (+10%) provides the sector with tailwinds post-earnings. On the flip side, the Auto sector lags amid the ongoing supply shortage coupled with some pre-market downside for post-earnings Tesla (-2.5%). Further, the financial sector is the red despite HSBC’s gains as UBS (-2.7%) shares are pressured after reporting a USD 744mln hit in relation to the Archegos default. In terms of individual stocks, earnings-related movers include ABB (+2%). Novartis (+1%), Novozymes (8%) and Maersk (+1.6%). Elsewhere, Entain (+0.5%) sees modest gains after submitting a revised AUD 3.5bln bid for Tabcorp.

Top European News

• DSV Agrees to Buy Agility’s Logistics Unit for $4.1 Billion
• Hungary Shifting Billions in Funds Decried as ‘Theft’
• Putin’s Drive to Ditch Dollar Picks Up as Exports Move to Euros
• Draghi Bets 261 Billion Euros to Redesign Italy’s Economy

In FX, the Dollar index has now climbed above the 91.000 level that was proving elusive after a narrow miss at 90.989 on Monday, but whether it can sustain gains above and the close higher remains to be seen given chart resistance in the form of the 100 DMA and 21 WMA at 91.025 and 91.070 respectively vs a 91.072 peak thus far. However, the Greenback continues to outpace low yielders and perhaps more encouragingly has also clawed back some lost ground against high beta, commodity and cyclical currencies that started the week so well. Moreover, the Buck is holding up well considering impending month end rebalancing flows that are unusually negative for April, according to Citi’s hedging model with a 1.7 SD seen only 5% of the time since 2004. Ahead, US consumer confidence and the 7 year note auction after somewhat mixed 2 and 5 year results yesterday could keep Treasury yields on a firmer footing before attention reverts to the FOMC tomorrow.

• SCANDI – Firmer oil prices appear to be helping the Nok stay close to 10.0000 vs the Eur, but the Sek remains below 10.1000 in wake of the latest Riksbank policy meeting where rates, QE and the projected repo path were all left unchanged, as low inflation pressures countered a slightly better assessment of the economic outlook – see headline feed at 8.30BST for more details, analysis, initial market reaction and a link to the full statement. Meanwhile, Swedish data may also be weighing on the Crown that is now slipping towards 10.1550, with unemployment rising in March and the trade surplus narrowing.
• NZD/CHF/AUD – The Kiwi has derived little in the way of added impetus following the reopening of NZ markets from the long ANZAC Day weekend, as Nzd/Usd fades on the 0.7200 handle and Aud/Nzd stays elevated nearer 1.0800 than 1.0750 in the run up to trade data. Nevertheless, the Aussie is also waning vs its US counterpart after relinquishing 0.7800+ status and eyeing Q1 CPI for some independent direction to supplement or offset underlying support via copper and other base metals. Elsewhere, the Franc is still tracking external moves in the main, around 0.9150 against the US Dollar and 1.1050 vs the single currency.
• CAD/GBP/EUR/JPY – All conceding ground to the firmer Greenback recovery, with the Loonie back below 1.2400 ahead of comments from BoC Governor Macklem that could revive its hawkish vibes, while Sterling, the Euro and Yen are striving to hold above 1.3850, 1.2050 and 108.50 respectively, latter largely shrugging off the on hold BoJ. Note also, Eur/Usd will be looking for some technical traction via the 100 DMA close to the half round number if not leverage from the Eur/Gbp cross that is probing 0.8700 again, while Usd/Jpy should be capped by decent option expiry interest at the 108.75 strike (1.4 bn) if 108.50 is cleared convincingly.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures eke mild gains as participants gear up for today’s JMMC (13:00BST/08:00EDT) in what was a last-minute change to the schedule, with the OPEC+ meeting still currently set for tomorrow according to OPEC’s website. As a reminder, the JMMC only makes recommendations rather than policy decisions. Nonetheless, today could see a flurry of sources – with market expectations skewered towards no change in quotas – however, it’s worth noting that OPEC+ has surprised markets at most meeting this year thus far. Aside from OPEC headlines, participants will be eyeing the weekly Private Inventory data as a scheduled catalyst. Further, there has been reports that an oil ship has reported an oil leak off Saudi’s Yanbu port, although later reports suggested this was not an attack. Further, a cargo vessel reportedly rammed into a tanker carrying 1mln barrels off the coast of Qingdoa in China. However no immediate price action was seen in wake of these reports. WTI resides off best levels now under the USD 62.50/bbl mark (vs range 61.91-62.74/bbl) while its Brent counterpart trades on either side of USD 66/bbl (vs range 65.66-66.44/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are uneventful within recent ranges in the run-up to the FOMC announcement tomorrow. Meanwhile, copper continues to turn heads as LME prices eye USD 10,000/t to the upside. Analysts at ING note that the relative strength in LME vs Shanghai copper has led to an open export arbitrage for some players, which could deter some speculative buying in London in the very short term.

US Event Calendar

• 9am: U.S. FHFA House Price Index MoM, Feb., est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
• 9am: U.S. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, Feb., est. 11.80%, prior 11.10%
  • S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, Feb., no est., prior 11.22%
  • S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, Feb., est. 1.10%, prior 1.20%
• 10am: U.S. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, April, est. 113.0, prior 109.7; Expectations, April, no est., prior 109.6; Present Situation, April, no est., prior 110.0
• 10am: U.S. Richmond Fed Index, April, est. 22, prior 17

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s always fun to come downstairs for an afternoon cuppa whilst WFH. There’s usually a surprise or a crisis to watch unfold. However yesterday I was greeted by the blowing up of about the fifth blow up pool (via Amazon) since lockdown started. The other four had irreparable punctures and only one caused by Bronte’s claws. This one has an impressively large blow up slide. However I can’t help thinking that an actual swimming pool will end up being cheaper at this rate.

There are yet to be any real punctures in the global risk balloon at the moment and ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting and a raft of corporate earnings releases this week, global equities resumed a gentle upward march yesterday. Both the S&P 500 (+0.18%) and the MSCI World index (+0.34%) reached new all-time highs. We’ll have to wait and see if these upcoming events might throw this off course, but positive news on potential travel arrangements this summer helped travel-sensitive stocks outperform, as cyclicals more broadly led the moves higher on the back of growth optimism on either side of the Atlantic. Indeed, a key New York Times report from the weekend that we mentioned yesterday, where European Commission President von der Leyen said that vaccinated US tourists would be able to travel to the EU, helped the STOXX 600 Travel & Leisure index to climb +1.76%, well ahead of the performance of the broader STOXX 600, which was only up +0.26%.

Optimism on the coming recovery sent copper prices (+2.47%) to their highest level in nearly a decade, whilst bitcoin (+10.7%) staged a big rebound from its recent declines in its own best day since early February. Tech stocks had a strong day too, with the NASDAQ (+0.87%) similarly reaching a record high by the close. Small-cap stocks still outperformed to send the Russell 2000 up +1.15%. Under the surface, there was a rotation from safer/defensive industries such as household products (-1.33%) and food staples (-1.26%) into risker and more cyclical industries such as semiconductors (+1.53%), banks (+0.71%) and retailers (+0.68%). After the close, we got the first big earnings release of the week from Tesla. The most valuable car maker showed a record profit last quarter, while announcing plans to ramp up production. However shares slid just over -3% in after-market trading as the company declined to offer delivery estimates and concerns grow about competition in the EV market. One interesting note was that the automaker registered a $101 million gain from selling 10% of their bitcoin holdings over the quarter, which accounts for $0.25/share of the $0.93/share reported EPS. Today’s main earnings highlights will include Microsoft and Alphabet, both of which are also after the US close.

Asian markets are trading weaker this morning with the Shanghai Comp (-0.54%) underperforming while the Nikkei (-0.13%), Hang Seng (-0.15%) and Kospi (-0.34%) are also trading slightly lower. The underperformance of the Shanghai Comp is likely due to the broadening antitrust crackdown by the Chinese government which is now investigating food-delivery giant Meituan for suspected monopolistic practices. Similar investigations on Alibaba had led to a record fine on the group. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.07% but European ones are pointing to a slightly weaker open with those on the Stoxx 50 down -0.15%.

We also saw the BoJ policy decision this morning where there were no surprises with the central bank leaving its interest rate and asset purchase settings unchanged. Meanwhile, the BoJ raised their growth forecast for the fiscal year (started this month) to 4% from 3.9%, despite the renewed emergency restrictions recently introduced in 4 prefectures, including the Tokyo region. The central bank’s latest CPI forecasts also show that it is unlikely to reach its price target in the current governor Kuroda’s term.

Back to yesterday, and sovereign bonds sold off as investors moved out of safe havens, with yields on 10yr US Treasuries up +0.9bps to 1.567%. The move was driven by higher inflation expectations (+2.4bps), with real yields actually falling back (-1.6bps). Treasury yields were as high as 1.597% mid-session prior to a pair of bond auctions. $121bn of issuance came across 2-year and 5-year notes and although interest was perhaps slightly weak the fact that it got absorbed helped the market rally after. Over in Europe, yields moved higher as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.4bps), OATs (+0.4bps) and BTPs (+1.8bps) all rising on the day.

In Germany, with less than 5 months now until the federal election in September, yet another poll out yesterday indicated that the Greens had overtaken Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc, suggesting that the initial poll showing that last week wasn’t just a fluke. Der Spiegel reported yesterday that a Civey poll showed that the CDU/CSU were down 6 points on 24%, whereas the Greens had surged to 29%, up 5 points from the last poll. And that follows a Kantar survey for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper over the weekend, which also showed a Green lead over the CDU/CSU of 29% to 28%. So there are obviously the usual caveats as to whether this will last, not least since the SPD saw their own temporary surge in 2017 after selecting their chancellor candidate, but the signs are pointing to a definite shift in position for the time being. Will a more successful vaccination program help the CDU/CSU gain ground as it has the U.K. government?

There wasn’t a great deal of news on the pandemic yesterday, though global case rates continue to remain at some of the highest we’ve seen to date. India has reported 323,144 cases over the past 24 hours, and has now reported over 300k cases for the 6th day in a row. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel said that vaccines would be available to everyone from June onwards, and that the country would relax rules for the vaccinated, saying they wouldn’t need tests for shopping or the hairdressers. Over in Turkey, President Erdogan exacted a 3-week lockdown starting from this Thursday, with all students going to remote schooling. According to the President the economy should only reopen once new daily cases fall under 5k per day, which is a good deal lower than the over 38k new cases recorded on Sunday. During a visit to a local school, President Macron hinted at a potential timeline for reopening in France. He said restaurants would gradually begin reopening between May and early June, with cultural venues reopening from mid-May and the current 7pm-6am curfew pushed back around the same time if virus circulation is brought under control.

Looking ahead, a highlight today will be remarks from President Biden on the pandemic, and CNN are reporting sources saying that he’ll announce new CDC guidance on whether vaccinated people needed to wear masks outdoors. Also out of the US, it was reported yesterday that the nation is planning to begin sharing its store of AstraZeneca vaccine with the world. Once the vaccine clears federal safety reviews, the White House has said it will make as many as 60 million doses available for export over the summer.

The Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator in Germany rose by less than expected to 96.8 in April (vs. 97.8 expected). That’s the strongest reading since June 2019, but although the current assessment number rose to 94.1 (vs. 94.4 expected), which is the strongest since the pandemic began, the expectations reading fell back to 99.5 (vs. 101.2 expected). Over in the US meanwhile, the preliminary durable goods orders figure for March only rose by +0.5% (vs. +2.3% expected). Finally, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index rose to 37.3, which is the highest since June 2018, while the new orders index rose to 38.5, which is the highest since the survey first began 17 years ago.

To the day ahead now, and there are an array of earnings releases to watch out for including Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Texas Instruments, UPS, Amgen, Starbucks, Raytheon Technologies, General Electric and 3M. Data highlights from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for April, the FHFA house price index for February and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for April. Central bank speakers include Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos.