Chicago PMI Miss Confirms ‘Soft’ Survey Slump Back To Reality

Chicago Purchasing Managers survey disappointed in September, sliding from 66.8 to 64.7 (worse than expected). After hitting record highs in May we are not at the lowest since February 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, stagflation signals abound:

• Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• New orders rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• Employment rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion

• Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• Production rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• Order backlogs rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

This latest disappointment confirms the trend of recent ‘soft’ survey data catching down to the reality of hard data’s decline…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears ‘hope’ that we can ‘build back better’ is gone?

Why, oh why, do so many commission-rakers and asset-gatherers put so much weight on these ‘survey’ data that merely extrapolate the latest trends and exaggerate optimism… always? (rhetorical question)