As VP Harris “Warns” Putin, US Now Says Up To 190,000 Russian Troops Near Ukraine

Days ago President Joe Biden estimated that Russia has built up at leas 130,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. But despite the Kremlin early this week asserting it’s begun to draw down some units from near the border, the White House has disputed this, instead saying signs point to a continued addition of forces. Not only this, but the US and UK estimates keep climbing significantly higher, even at a moment that Ukraine’s government itself is sill downplaying the likelihood of a Russian invasion. 

 “We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30,” the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Michael Carpenter, told a security meeting on Friday.

He stressed that “This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.” He reiterated administration claims that Russia is plotting a “pretext to attack its neighbor. 

INTELLIGENCE UPDATE: Russia retains a significant military presence that can conduct an invasion without further warning.

Below demonstrates President Putin’s possible axis of invasion. He still can choose to prevent conflict and preserve peace. pic.twitter.com/QHRM1wNwJG

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 17, 2022

Thus the official US estimate of Russian troops allegedly poised to invade Ukraine is now just under 200,000. Included in the estimate are Russian soldiers currently in Belarus participating in scheduled joint war games. 

At the same time, at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in his opening speech called for immediate deescalation to the crisis. “With a concentration of Russian troops around Ukraine, I am deeply concerned about heightened tensions and increased speculation about a military conflict in Europe,” Guterres said. However, like many officials in Europe, he downplayed the possibility of major war. 

“There is no alternative to diplomacy. All issues, including the most intractable, must be addressed through diplomatic frameworks. It is high time to seriously de-escalate,” he said addressing the assembly. “I still think it will not happen. But if it did, it would be catastrophic,” he underscored. 

Meanwhile, also in attendance at the Munich Security Conference for her first bilateral meeting is Vice President Kamal Harris – an interesting choice for the White House to send in such a crisis, given we can’t imagine this will strike much fear into Moscow, or alternately much confidence in NATO allies.

She warned the Russians in her first bilateral meeting at the conference that any “aggressive action will met with “severe consequences” of economic sanctions:

“We remain, of course, open to and desire diplomacy as it relates to the dialogue and the discussions we’ve had with Russia. But we are also committed — if Russia takes aggressive action — to ensuring there will be severe consequence, in terms of the economic sanctions we have discussed,” Harris said in Munich Friday.

She said while alongside NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that the alliance remains “strong” in the face of the threat. 

“Right now, we are obviously dealing with the concern about what is happening in Ukraine. As a member of NATO, we feel very strongly and will always be committed to the principal of territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Harris said.

“I am here to ensure that through our discussions and the discussions I will have with other of our allies, that we continue as these hours and days progress to stay in close contact. We understand this is a dynamic moment in time. So the work we are doing on a daily basis — and sometimes on an hourly basis to strengthen the relationship — to check in, in terms of our strategic imperative, is critically important and it’s one of the reasons I’m here,” the Vice President added.