Month: February 2023

In a weekend CBS interview, CIA Director William Burns offered a surprising and blunt assessment which contradicts much media reporting over Iran and its nuclear program.

Days ago multiple international reports claimed that Iran is now enriching uranium to 84%, which would bring it very close to obtaining the level of purity needed for a bomb. Burns in the new interview also advanced this figure, but at the same time said his agency believed the Islamic Republic is “not resuming” its nuclear weapons program. 

But he did stress that should the Iranians decide to take final crucial steps toward nuclear weapons capability, it would merely be “a matter of weeks” before achieving a nuclear bomb.

“If they chose to cross that line,” he explained, Tehran would only need a “matter of weeks” to enrich uranium necessary to reach nuclear weapons grade. Currently, talks to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) are effectively dead, and the Biden administration is no longer actively pursuing a deal, blaming the Iranians for the collapse of the Vienna process.

The “Face the Nation” interview aired Sunday, and while most headlines emphasized that Tehran’s nuclear program is advancing at “worrisome pace”, his words contained the following admission:

“To the best of our knowledge, we don’t believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge that they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003,” Burns told show host Margaret Brennan. “But the other two legs of the stool, meaning enrichment programs, they’ve obviously advanced very far.” 

But regardless, Iran’s regional enemy #1 Israel does believe Tehran is pursuing nukes. For this reason the hardline Netanyahu government has stressed time and again that it reserves freedom of action to intervene militarily to stop Iran’s threatening program. 

CIA Director Bill Burns says the US doesn’t believe that Iran’s supreme leader has decided to resume the nuclear weapons program.pic.twitter.com/AYPz2jPoeW

— Joseph Haboush (@jhaboush) February 25, 2023

This also as Israel sees any potential Iranian acquirement of the bomb as an existential threat to the Jewish state. Recent years have seen Israeli drone attacks as well as suspected sabotage operations against Iran’s nuclear facilities, and even the assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist in a high risk covert operation using a remote-controlled machine gun.

But CIA director Burns has been fairly consistent in saying Iran is not actively pursuing nukes (which suggests the Iranian official explanation of a peaceful nuclear energy program could be accurate). For example in 2021 he made the exact same assessment, which was also controversial at the time. 

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

George Washington University (where I teach) this week became one of the last major universities to drop its mask mandate.

Many students had long declined to follow the mandate, but the decision was met with relief by many at the school.

Yet, some are livid about the lifting of such mandates in various schools.

One is a professor at the University of British Columbia who has participated in roundtable discussions as an expert with Canadian Prime Minister Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  Dr. Amy Tan is a Clinical Associate Professor in Palliative Care and Family Practice at UBC’s Faculty of Medicine and an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary.

She recently issued a blistering attack on those going maskless as being “racist, ableist, and classist.”

The comments raise long-standing concerns that masks have become a vehicle for social and political rather than medical agendas.

Screenshot of a tweet by Dr. Amy Tan published from Feb. 18 2023.

According to media reports , Tan responded to a user who defended labeling non-maskers as “racist.”

The user denounced dropping the mandates and added:

“once again and always – white people, you do not get to say what is or isn’t racist. stop speaking for and over BIPOC.

learn your place, sit down, shut up, and listen to us. your white saviorism is killing us. whiteness is a problem. oof.

(read & listen to James Baldwin! <3)”

Tan appeared to agree and added that “not masking is racist, ableist & classist.” Notably, some experts believe that the mandatory mandates are alarmist.

Recent studies have cast doubts on the efficacy of masks and revealed that even the CDC long harbored doubts on the question. Others continue to challenge those contrary findings as incomplete.

Notably, Tan is not attempting to engage skeptics on the science. Instead she (and others) are attempting to cut off debate by labeling opposing views as revealing a myriad of prejudices. These attacks have largely worked to intimidate many in government, business, media, and academia. Mask efficacy is a debate long suppressed by social media companies and disfavored by many universities. Experts were banned for raising such questions and others labeled conspiracy theorists.

Figures like Tan continue to argue that questioning mask efficacy is to self-identify as a racist, ableist and classist. That is a lot of “ists” for anyone and most academics do not want to risk becoming a target of such attacks. The problem is that the students and the public at large no longer appear to be buying into the mask mandates.

Hopefully, we can still have this long delayed debate at universities without the type of personal, vituperative attacks employed by figures like Tan. If one truly cares about public health, there is nothing to fear from hearing opposing views on the underlying science. People of good faith should be able to disagree on these studies without being allegedly “unmasked” as the Bull Connors of medicine.

Her bio on UBC’s website highlights her work “an advocate for health equity and an anti-racism educator and consultant” with expertise on “culturally-safe and anti-oppressive care with patients and families.” She has been a continuing advocate for mask where both inside and outside buildings.

NASA and SpaceX scrubbed a launch attempt of the SpaceX Crew-6 mission to the International Space Station early Monday morning due to a ground systems problem. 

A last-minute technical issue occurred just two minutes before the 230-foot-tall (70-meter) Falcon 9 rocket, with a Crew Dragon capsule, was expected to lift off from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, at 0145 ET. The clock was stopped by engineers “to investigate an issue preventing data from confirming a full load of the ignition source for the Falcon 9 first stage Merlin engines, triethylaluminum triethylboron (or TEA-TEB),” according to the space agency. 

Strapped into the Dragon capsule was a crew of two NASA astronauts, one Russian cosmonaut and one astronaut from the United Arab Emirates. 

SCRUB: Two minutes from launch, an issue with the Falcon 9 rocket’s engine ignition system postpones the Crew-6 mission to the @Space_Station.

More on the cause and when @NASA and @SpaceX could try again as soon as details become available.@news6wkmg: https://t.co/a06XbQrach pic.twitter.com/L4wLUN5Lrw

— James Sparvero (@JamesSparvero) February 27, 2023

“I’m proud of the NASA and SpaceX teams’ focus and dedication to keeping Crew-6 safe,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a statement. He added: “Human spaceflight is an inherently risky endeavor and, as always, we will fly when we are ready.”

The next launch attempt is at 1234 ET Thursday, pending the resolution of the technical issue that prevented this morning’s launch.

Authored by by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Ukraine is preparing to launch attacks to recapture Crimea by forming new military units and sending troops to train in other countries.

“There are military steps, and we are preparing for them. We are ready mentally. We are preparing technically: with weapons, reinforcements, the formation of brigades, in particular the assault brigades, of different categories and nature,” Zelensky said at a press conference, according to the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform.

According to Ukrinform, Zelensky said Ukrainian troops were being sent to train in other countries to learn how to use new weapons. “We have to be ready. Then, there will be corresponding fair de-occupation steps and, God willing, they will be successful,” he added.

Zelensky and other top Ukrainian officials have maintained that kicking Russia out of Crimea is one of their war goals, but Russia controls a good portion of territory to the north of Crimea in the Kherson Oblast. The Pentagon has also assessed it’s unlikely Ukraine can take the peninsula, which Russia has controlled since 2014.

Despite the Pentagon’s assessment, Biden administration officials still say they would support Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. “Russia has turned Crimea into a massive military installation … those are legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them, and we are supporting that,” Victoria Nuland, the US undersecretary of state for political affairs, recently said.

The US backing Ukrainian attacks on Crimea would risk a major escalation with Moscow, a fact that even Secretary of State Antony Blinken has recognized by calling the peninsula a “red line” for Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

The Russian leader has shown a willingness to escalate the war over attacks on Crimea, as Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure didn’t start until after the truck bombing of the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland.

Two German officials note that Zelensky has falsely claimed that Russia fired on NATO territory, with the goal of “trying to drag the US and its allies into the war.”

But no need to fault Zelensky for lying in the hopes of starting WWIII. “In his place, we would do the same.” pic.twitter.com/7nDudVh9sO

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) February 24, 2023

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 following the US-backed coup in Kyiv that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Polling since then has shown the majority of people living on the peninsula are happy that they joined the Russian Federation.

Tesla published a note on its website explaining the rollout of the $15,000 driver-assistance system (Full Self-Driving Beta) has been “paused” until a new software upgrade can be deployed over the air to address the recent recall of 362,758 vehicles equipped with FSD Beta. 

“Until the software version containing the fix is available, we have paused the rollout of FSD Beta to all who have opted-in but have not yet received a software version containing FSD Beta,” Tesla said. 

The pause affected Tesla drivers who bought FSD but were being vetted by Tesla for Beta approval. Also, no new customers can add FSD Beta while Tesla works on an update to address the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) recall with certain 2016-2023 Model S, Model X, 2017-2023 Model 3, and 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles. 

Here’s what NHTSA said earlier this month about the FSD Beta recall:

The FSD Beta system may allow the vehicle to act unsafe around intersections, such as traveling straight through an intersection while in a turn-only lane, entering a stop sign-controlled intersection without coming to a complete stop, or proceeding into an intersection during a steady yellow traffic signal without due caution.

In addition, the system may respond insufficiently to changes in posted speed limits or not adequately account for the driver’s adjustment of the vehicle’s speed to exceed posted speed limits.

Tesla notes that FSD Beta has features that signal drivers with “visual and audible warnings” to pay attention to the road. Tesla said:

“The driver is responsible for operation of the vehicle whenever the feature is engaged and must constantly supervise the feature and intervene (e.g., steer, brake or accelerate) as needed to maintain safe operation of the vehicle.” 

Tesla also said customers with FSD Beta are not required to take any immediate actions.

As of this morning, Tesla users can still purchase the $15,000 driver-assistance system (but won’t be cleared for FSD Beta). 

Is FSD Beta worth it? 

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Somebody once described equity pricing to me as a dog that walks on a leash with a man, down a path through the woods.

The path represents the underlying fundamentals of the company or the market, and the dog represents investor sentiment and market valuation about said company or market.

As the man walks down the “fundamentals” path, the dog strays wildly, side-to-side, on the leash. First to the far left side of the path, then back to the right – and in the interim, everywhere in between. It’s distracted, chases woodland creatures, tries to smell items and is just generally excitable. That’s investor behavior.

The one constant is that, at the end of the day, the dog always winds up walking down the path in the same direction as the owner. The point being that no matter how far he temporarily strays from one side to the next, the fundamentals continue to dictate the long-term course.

I found this to be an apt analogy for how I feel about equity markets heading into this week. My longer-term readers know that I still continue to believe equity markets are wildly overpriced and eventually will cripple under the reality of 5% interest rates, persistent inflation, a debt-strapped consumer and depleted savings.

But once again, another week has gone by where my prophecy of a market decline has not been fulfilled – in any meaningful fashion, at least. The market was down about 3% last week, but is still up 3.4% for the year.

Among the pieces I’ve written over the last couple months are several talking about the fact that, even though I haven’t been proven immediately right on a number of my prognostications, waypoints in the midst of our “walk through the woods” continue to indicate to me that the market remains on the same “path” I figured it would be on heading into the year.

And so sometimes I feel the need to write these annoyingly repetitive thoughts in order to keep myself sane. Sometimes I do it in order to remind myself that patience is needed for my thesis to play out and sometimes I write because current events continue to reaffirm my stance. This piece is all three.

My content over the last couple of months has been replete with the thoughts of those I respect, like my friend Kenny Polcari, who believe that interest rate hikes aren’t going to pause or pivot anytime soon. In fact, Kenny often cites Fed governor Jim Bullard (who is on the hawkish end of the Fed spectrum) like I do to make unpopular points you don’t often see in the mainstream media – like the idea of rates possibly going to 6%.

Putting aside the fact that I think that 6% rates would be a mathematically guaranteed path to economic destruction, those are the types of theses that one has to pay attention to now, I believe.

Today’s piece is free to read. If you have the means and would like to support my work, I’d be humbled if you became a subscriber: Get 50% off forever

The Fed has been consistent in its stance that it is looking for a trend of inflation coming down before it reevaluates its monetary policy stance. And while we had a couple of promising prints to end 2022 and start 2023, this past week’s data failed to keep with that trend. The PCE deflator and the Fed minutes this week seemed to offer little solace regarding the Fed’s future stance on rates

Source: Barron’s

The natural inclination for investors at this point is to try and twist a pretzel of a narrative that somehow ends in the Fed easing relatively soon. I can’t fault the market or investors for having this mindset – it is a product of 20 years of easy money policy to expect that everything will just “work out” somehow. To some psychological degree, it is still “swimming downstream” or “traveling with the wind at your back” to believe that everything is going to be fine and that the Fed is going to be able to achieve a soft landing.

But the uncomfortable and unfortunate reality of things is that the market likely hasn’t yet digested the full effects of the rate hikes we’ve already had, let alone future rate hikes, or even holding the funds rate where it is right now for longer. Again, those economic realities have seen personal savings zapped while debt charges to all-time highs. As Zero Hedge posted in January 2023:

And then there are other trends that appear to be screaming out that reversion to the mean is coming. For example, look at this chart of 10Y real rates versus the S&P 500 forward PE that Zero Hedge posted last week:

And remember last week I pointed out the fact that the bond market appeared to be in the midst of a historic panic attack wherein, if historical norms are to be observed, it appears to be signaling an imminent and intense recession. The spread between the two year and the 10 year treasury today has moved to almost 90bps, the largest spread since 1981.

And so, make no doubt about it, if we stay the “path”, there will be a tipping point wherein consumers are simply tapped out and market valuations are forced to contract both as a result of less spending, and also eventually a shift in market psychology.

This past week’s data continues to reaffirm that the Fed has no impetus to ease up on its strategies and it certainly doesn’t confirm that the Fed has been successful in halting inflation for the long term. 

The market simply remains a dog that has wandered off the path toward the side of euphoria, optimism and bullishness, despite the underlying direction of the economic path it’ll be forced to travel down. The idea that the market is up this year, while the Fed has done nothing to alter or change its course and the underlying data doesn’t support such a move, is stunning to me.

The market and the economy become two distinctly separate entities during a period of quantitative easing. When there’s free money flooding the market, the market does whatever it wants regardless of the underlying economy. During a period of tightening, like now, the opposite happens: the market becomes tethered again to the economy. This means an optimistic market can no longer be the tail that wags the economic dog. Instead, investors are being force-fed a reversion back to reality that they may not even have had time to stop and taste yet.

As the drill sergeants said in the mess hall during the movie Renaissance Man, “We eat now, we taste it later!”

This means that despite the market being optimistic, it’s not changing my opinion for the outcome of this year. Rather, I think this optimistic start to the year will only be viewed historically as a bear market rally and a temporary and marked dislocation from fundamentals.

Remember: the market reacts to the Fed’s moves with a lag. This means that any turmoil we see over the next couple of months will likely have started with Fed policy changes that were made months ago. And if the Fed holds course, this literally means not that the worst is almost over, but rather that the worst may not have even started yet.

The market and the economy are the two feet of the man walking down the path. So far, only the stock market shoe has dropped. When the other shoe drops, it’ll become clear what direction we are truly walking in, dog in tow.

I continue to believe the sectors and equities I am personally invested in for the year will give me an advantage versus just pouring money into index ETFs throughout the year. As I have said in many of my pieces, I strongly believe markets in 2023 are going to be driven by both a residual crash coming from this year’s rate hikes and then an eventual Fed pivot, which will be late and down the line, with a fair amount of geopolitical risk on the side.

When I put together my 23 Stocks To Watch In 2023 (Part 1 here, Part 2 here), I tried to keep all of this in mind – I wanted to create a somewhat diversified, risk adverse, plan for myself heading into the new year. Whether or not I’m right, we’ll know in about 10 months.

QTR’s Disclaimer:

I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning in varying size. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Kamikaze Strategies

It’s a bad market strategy to stick to a fundamental view while ignoring a price trend the other way: it’s a kamikaze strategy when that fundamental view doesn’t capture reality.

In 2021, inflation was not going to happen: then it rose sharply, but was called “transitory”. In 2022, inflation was not going to soar, nor rates rise: then it did, and rates rose. In 2023, disinflation and a rates pause, then a rates pivot, loomed: yet hot January US jobs data, CPI, and PPI have been followed by scorching personal consumption expenditure (PCE)/deflators. Even so, Bloomberg was this weekend running the headline ‘Bets on the Year of the Bond Are Still on Even as Losses Return’. Ahead of key PMI data this week, is that view cleverly looking down from an intellectual cockpit, or being in one and shouting ‘Bonds, I!’

PCE data showed services spending still surging. Plot a trend line, and the Covid collapse and current up-leg is not V- but J-shaped: that outweighs above-trend nominal goods PCE stalling. Moreover, the Fed’s favoured core PCE services excluding shelter inflation was 0.6% m-o-m in January, 7% annualised – seven percent! Larry Summers and the market, following Rabo’s Philip Marey, are now worrying about 6% Fed Funds, and 10-year yields are moving steadily higher: how long until 4%, and until serious cross-asset market volatility returns?

The view the US will pivot while other central banks are more hawkish also looks kamikaze. The ECB may do 100bps, but 6% Fed Funds would mean the US doing 125bps, and the ECB has to look at German Q4 GDP -0.4% q-o-q and capex -2.5%, as BASF closes some German operations and fears of deindustrialisation rise. True, some point to soaring US debt-servicing costs as the reason Fed funds must fall: interest will soon be larger than the Pentagon’s budget. Some point to this being how hegemons fall – though it will fall on them. However:

1. The Fed is leaning the other way, even on more QT. If it is to cut, and inflation fall, it will only be after a biting global recession which takes everyone down with it, not a mild dip;

2. US public debt rose from 40% to 100% of GDP during WW2: we are already over that level on some metrics even before any (larger) wars start; and again this is seen as how hegemons fall. However, @LynAldenContact rightly points out actual US debt went from $43bn to $258bn in five years, or up 500%, and the smaller rise in debt-to-GDP masked a inflationary surge in the size of GDP. That is an historical fact, and future US option, not to be blithely dismissed; or

3. As this Daily continues to suggest, if push comes to shove, expect rate hikes *and* QE to reallocate capital much more forcibly from bubbles to munitions.

Indeed, it’s been a kamikaze strategy to ignore geopolitics. In 2022, most everyone was wrong on Ukraine; in 2023 the view was we would see that war wind down. Yet yesterday Putin declared the West wants to “dismember” Russia into new states, making it an existential struggle. China’s 12-point peace plan came and went: the South China Morning Post headline was ‘’China has taken Russia’s side’: EU dismisses Beijing’s misplaced’ plans for Ukraine peace.’ So, we face a longer, more inflationary war.

Yet things are worse than that. Der Spiegel says China is considering selling kamikaze drones to Moscow, and the Washington Post alleges it may also sell it munitions. This has potentially huge market ramifications: it could mean a rapid, wrenching China/Russia/Iran – US/Europe decoupling: and yet more structural inflation.

Ill omens were G-20 finance ministers failing to agree a common statement over Ukraine due to resistance from Russia and China; China’s foreign minister Wang Yi ask the EU’s Borrell, “Why do you show concern for me maybe providing arms to Russia when you are providing arms to Ukraine?”; and President Zelenskiy saying he would like to discuss the peace plan with Xi Jinping, then Beijing inviting Belarus’s Lukashenko.

Markets will argue it would be a kamikaze strategy for China to arm Russia. However, the counter-argument is that China believes the threat of mutual economic destruction will see the EU blink first, splitting it from the US. (And US investment banks from the White House?) After all, France and Germany are reportedly keen for Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow: President Macron argues Paris and Berlin made peace post-1945. Yet Hitler had to be defeated first. So, some decry the US as willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian; others decry the French and Germans as willing to appease Russia to the last of Ukraine. Ukraine itself still wants to fight – and the war will go on; and tensions with China will rise. Markets will catch up to that reality eventually.

Relatedly(?), rumors are that China’s March National People’s Congress –which Bloomberg says is making some market autopilots bullish about Chinese stocks (again)– may see the Ministries of Public Security and State Security move from the State Council into a Commission of Internal Affairs under the direct control of the CCP Central Committee, the party’s highest organ of authority. That sounds dull, Marxist, and technical: so did early warnings of Common Prosperity before markets were roiled (as China Renaissance CEO Bao Fan’s recent disappearance is due to him “assisting with inquiries”).

Meanwhile, ‘geopolitics’ is evident all over:

• Bloomberg says, ‘Nickel Shows Indonesia How to Escape the Middle Income Trap’: a green-transition metal is propelling it up the value chain after changed laws ensured processing is done there, rather than just mining. Neighbouring top global nickel exporter the Philippines is thinking of copying Indonesia’s move. That is a further step away from globalization based on specialising in part of the value chain towards deglobalisation based on controlling more of the value chain via industrial policy.

• The UK Prime Minister has to decide today whether he can agree, and sell his own government on, a new Northern Ireland deal with the EU. In the background, the UK farmers’ union warns of persistent fruit and vegetable shortages, and retailers are rationing, due to both Brexit and climate shocks in new markets the UK had pivoted to. Farmers say they can’t plant local crops without clarity over long-run demand: leaving EU free markets and free trade doesn’t work for resiliency, but neither does replacing it with other free markets and free trade. Only resiliency works for resiliency – via industrial policy.

• The White House may reportedly try to bypass Congress to shift the terms of its new IRA to include the EU. Surely have to be a quid pro quo for that massive gift? Perhaps a decisive EU move away from China? If this doesn’t happen, the EU is said to be floating a EUR72bn scheme to fight the $369bn IRA. Again, the EU is outgunned, here on “strategic autonomy” industrial policy.

• Australia’s press today says Australia-India relations have hit a ‘sweet spot’, which is all about China; and the government’s Signals Directorate could be given authority to directly commandeer the IT systems of almost every company in the country that suffers a cyberattack under reforms proposed after two recent large hacks(!) At the same time, one headline runs ‘Why the RBA has reason to worry about the weather: As history has shown, more frequent weather events can introduce an upward bias to inflation settings and therefore interest rates’.

Against all of the above, Bloomberg’s weekend front page on Saturday was, incredibly, ‘Good Times’ for a few hours. What can one say to that –and to those expecting painless lower inflation, lower rates, lower bond yields (so higher stocks), and a lower dollar– but “Banzai!”

Russian oil pipeline company Transneft shifted oil flows from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Poland while shipments to Poland were halted, according to Reuters, citing at least one Russian news agency. 

TASS news reported Polish customers were unable to receive Russian oil because Transneft didn’t receive paperwork and transit payment in late February. 

“(Oil) should have been pumped to Polish refineries in the second half of February.”

“However, routing orders with confirmed resource and transit payment were not executed.

“In addition, operational changes were made to the schedule, excluding supplies for Polish consumers,” a spokesperson for the pipeline operator said. 

On Monday, Kazakhstan oil pipeline operator KazTransOil said about 20,000 tons of crude was pumped to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline. Kazakhstan is a landlocked country that relies on Russia to export energy products that aren’t subjected to Western sanctions. 

The northern leg of Druzhba supplies crude to Germany, while the southern portion supplies Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. 

The first oil flow disruption was reported Saturday. Poland’s largest oil company PKN Orlen SA said oil flows from the Druzhba pipeline from Russia were unexpectedly halted. 

“The halt comes a day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reached the one-year mark,” Bloomberg pointed out. It also comes after President Biden visited Kyiv and Warsaw last week. 

Meanwhile, Poland has been one of the biggest cheerleaders of Kyiv, sending weapons and humanitarian aid and receiving more than 1.5 million refugees. Poland was the first European country last year to have its natural gas flows cut by Russia shortly after the invasion. 

Even though Western sanctions have excluded Russian oil imports via pipelines, Warsaw has requested sanctions to cancel the last contract with a Russian supplier.  

About 10% of Polish crude supplies are sourced from Russia. The country has moved quickly to reduce its dependency on Moscow. Orlen stated that the reduced flows from Russia wouldn’t impact operations or consumers.

Poland has been preparing for this day with alternative sourcing, though Germany still has an addiction problem to cheap Russian energy products