Meta Earnings Preview

Meta Earnings Preview

With traders buzzing about Powell’s shocking reincarnation of Arthur Burns as he steamrolled over the ghost of Paul Volcker again and again as he sent risk exploding higher and undoing all the Fed’s hard work since Jackson Hole, let’s not forget that after the close today we get earnings from one of the gigacaps when Facebook Meta reports Q4 results.

So for those focusing on micro even when macro is all the rage, here is a preview of META’s earnings courtesy of JPM TMT trader Ron Adler.

MEGACAP TECH (META, GOOGL, AMZN) – Earnings remain a focus as we play our two favorite games, “What are the bogeys?” and “What’s priced in?” Cost cutting and competition are thematically relevant for the group. META is the cleanest story, given the comps and lack of cloud dynamics, and they’re the furthest along on costs. GOOGL provided some hope on cost-cutting comments a few weeks ago. However, the number of tangible levers they seem willing to pull to drive profitability remains in question, while AI and regulatory weigh further. AMZN has many moving parts, but all eyes remain on AWS; this print seems like a clearing event. Regarding preference, I like META > AMZN > GOOGL into this week. See below for more thoughts on the META, GOOGL & AMZN setups. 

  • META – Remains a top idea for many given cost rationalizations, lapping IDFA comps and investments bearing fruit. The bear case really hasn’t changed (Competitive threats, saturated user base, overearning core biz, platform changes and obstinate mgmt).
  • EXPECTATIONS – Q4 Revs -4% (vs. guide -3-11%) & Q1 Guide -3%. F23 Expense Guide trimmed to ~$95B at midpoint (vs. current $97B). Reports 2/1, Implied 10.7%

And here is Goldman (courtesy of traders Callahan and Bartlett)

META…Meta reports Wed post close. We have as a 7 on “1-10” positioning scale. With stock now +26% ytd and +74% off of  November lows, and the feedback we hear from most skewing more positive since the stock bottomed, it’s hard to argue this hasn’t become a popular long again. Investors expect Q4 Revenue beat vs. consensus, and looking for another cut to FY23 OpEx and/or CapEx guide.  Options implying a 9% move. 

For the META results, joins us just after the close.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 15:48

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Billionaire Zelensky-Backer & Ex-Minister Among Ukrainian Officials Targeted In More Anti-Corruption Raids

Billionaire Zelensky-Backer & Ex-Minister Among Ukrainian Officials Targeted In More Anti-Corruption Raids

In yet another case of curious timing, given it comes a day after the US Treasury issued a (dubious) statement saying US authorities have found no evidence of misuse of the billions in US aid funds flowing into Ukraine, Wednesday has witnessed more anti-corruption raids on a number of prominent government-linked figures. 

Among the homes raided by Ukraine’s security agency, the SBU, included that of the former interior minister Arsen Avakov, as well as one of the the country’s richest men with ties to Zelensky, Ihor Kolomoisky.

Billionaire Igor Kolomoisky & Ukraine’s president

In Kolomoisky’s case, state security services released photos of the Ukrainian billionaire’s home being searched. The probe is reportedly related to massive embezzlement and fraud cases centering on Ukraine’s two largest oil firms. 

“In a statement that made no mention of the tycoon, the economic security bureau said it had exposed large-scale embezzlement schemes and tax evasion worth 40bn hyrivnia ($1bn; £880m) by the former management of Ukraine’s two biggest oil firms, Ukranafta and Ukrtatnafta,” BBC reports.

Kolomoisky had already long been under US sanctions over “significant corruption” allegations during his time as governor of the wider Dnipropetrovsk region in 2014.

His money has reportedly been instrumental in bolstering anti-Russian defense militias in the Donbass. He’s also well-known as a powerful backer of President Volodymyr Zelensky, as various reports now point out:

Mr Kolomoisky is also a wealthy businessman involved in Ukrainian media, oil and banking. His TV channel gave Mr Zelensky his break with the comedy series Servant of the People, before he backed the former actor’s bid for the presidency.

It’s clear that Zelensky is now feeling pressure from Europe and Washington to ‘get tough’ on corruption, given in some cases popular support in the West for the tens of billions in foreign and defense aid being funneled to his government’s coffers is beginning to wane.

It appears the proverbial ‘house is being cleaned’… much too belatedly, when it comes to entire central government offices, following last week’s mass resignations of at least ten high level officials and multiple more regional officials related to widespread corruption:

Referring to the latest anti-corruption swoop as “spring landings”, Mr Arakhamia listed further investigations, including the dismissal of the entire leadership of the customs service. MP Oleksiy Honcharenko said the acting head and two deputies had been fired.

The main tax office in Kyiv was also raided.

US authorities have long pressed Kiev authorities to seize Kolomoisky’s assets and take expansive legal action against the oligarch…

As for the investigation of former Interior Minister Avakov, it relates to government purchases of six French-made helicopters in 2018. An inquiry into the deal urgently began after last month’s crash of one of the helicopters in a residential area which killed over a dozen people, including top ministry officials, significantly among them Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi.

Avakov while confirming his home was raided on Wednesday firmly rejected any wrongdoing: “The investigation took interest in the contracts on the purchase of Super Puma (Airbus Helicopters H225) helicopters by the Interior Ministry,” he said in a statement.

“The investigators behaved properly although the reasonability for such an investigative action looks a bit stupid six years after the conclusion of the contract,” he complained, according to Interfax.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 15:25

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CDC Aware Of Reports Of ‘Debilitating Illnesses’ After COVID-19 Vaccination: Official

CDC Aware Of Reports Of ‘Debilitating Illnesses’ After COVID-19 Vaccination: Official

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials are aware of reports of long-lasting problems following COVID-19 vaccination, an official recently disclosed.

“With respect to reports of people experiencing debilitating illnesses, we are aware of these reports of people experiencing long-lasting health problems following COVID vaccination,” Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, director of the CDC’s Immunization Safety Office, said on Jan. 26.

In some cases, the clinical presentation of people suffering these health problems is variable and no specific medical cause for the symptoms have been found,” Shimabukuro added. “We understand that illness is disruptive and stressful, especially under those circumstances. And we acknowledge these health problems have substantially impacted the quality of life for people and have also affected those around them. And we hope for improvement and recovery, and we will continue to monitor the safety of these vaccines and work with partners to try to better understand these types of adverse events.”

In this image from video, the CDC’s Dr. Tom Shimabukuro speaks during a virtual meeting on Jan. 26, 2023. (FDA via The Epoch Times)

Shimabukuro was speaking during a Jan. 26 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) meeting that discussed COVID-19 vaccine safety and effectiveness.

Dr. Hayley Gans, a pediatrics professor at Stanford University Medical Center, had asked how federal authorities were tracking problems that have cropped up after vaccination and might not be “amenable” to rapid cycle analysis, or one way of monitoring vaccine safety.

Shimabukuro noted that any person, including health care workers, can submit reports of adverse events to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which the CDC manages, “and we accept all those reports without judging the clinical seriousness or how plausible the adverse event may be with respect to causation.” Other systems also monitor safety beyond the rapid analysis, he added.

We take vaccine safety very seriously,” Shimabukuro said.

Shimabukuro’s comments are unusual among federal officials, who have been reluctant to connect adverse events with the COVID-19 vaccines.

Brianne Dressen, who was injured by AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, said that the response was welcome but wondered whether it was enough.

“This was an unprecedented move but also was a carefully worded response. Instead of a little whisper in an FDA meeting, this really needs to be communicated to the medical community,” Dressen, co-founder of the support group React19, told The Epoch Times in an email. “They have said these very words to us privately so it’s good they are finally leaning in the right direction to start the conversation publicly, but is it too little too late?”

“Injured Americans have been begging these agencies for acknowledgement for over two years. This small utterance should have happened long ago. By now we should be openly discussing and researching these Covid vaccine reactions,” she added.

Few Events Acknowledged

U.S. officials have only acknowledged a handful of serious adverse events as being caused by one or more COVID-19 vaccines.

Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine causes a combination of low platelet levels and blood clotting known as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, the CDC says on its website. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines cause severe allergic shock, or anaphylaxis, as well as a type of heart inflammation called myocarditis.

The CDC and FDA primarily monitor safety by examining data from surveillance systems to see whether adverse events are happening at high rates.

Both agencies have withheld or delayed disclosure of the results of some of the monitoring.

Hundreds of events met the safety signal criteria in VAERS, according to CDC records recently obtained by The Epoch Times. The CDC pointed to studies showing research is being done on some of the signals. It has also said the CDC analyses were done to corroborate results from analyses the FDA performed and that the CDC analyses revealed “no additional unexpected safety signals.” The FDA has refused to release the results from its analyses. A lawsuit was filed for the records on Jan. 26.

Another system, called V-safe, features surveys sent to Americans who received a COVID-19 vaccine. The CDC knew that some serious events like myocarditis could be linked to the vaccines but chose to leave those events off of the surveys, newly disclosed documents showed.

Nicole G., a nurse who was injured by a Pfizer vaccine she received due to a vaccine mandate and asked that her full last name not be used, told The Epoch Times in an email that the CDC did not prioritize patient safety, pointing to the delay in conducting the VAERS analyses and the fact that vaccine recipients were not told about the adverse events authorities were expecting after vaccination.

“The censorship around the COVID vaccine has left us suffering and dying in silence with limited access to treatment,” the nurse said.

While Shimabukuro claimed that “no specific medical cause” was found for some of the injuries after vaccination, doctors have diagnosed Dressen, Nicole, and others with vaccine injuries, and medical literature has linked the vaccines with a range of issues.

Nicole called on the CDC to implement a plan to change the situation. “You need to do more than hope,” she said.

The nurse spoke during the public comment portion of the recent meeting, along with multiple others who said they were left injured by the vaccines.

“The only thing more humiliating than losing my bodily function is your complete disregard for the vaccine injured,” Danielle Baker, one of the speakers, said.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 15:05

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Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Soar As Powell Shrugs Off Loosening Financial Conditions

Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Soar As Powell Shrugs Off Loosening Financial Conditions

After some initial volatility, US equity markets are charging higher…

…and bond yields lower…

After Fed Chair Powell appeared to shrug off the fact that financial conditions have dramatically loosened recently…

Specifically, Powell noted that financial conditions have tightened very significantly over the past year, and that “it is important that overall financial conditions reflect” monetary policy (which they don’t), but added that “our focus is not on short-term moves, but on sustained changes” to financial conditions.

Additionally, gold is extending its gains…

This is anything but the ‘hawkish’ rhetoric the market was expecting.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 14:50

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Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s 25bps Rate Hike

Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s 25bps Rate Hike

As usual, the only thing to kneejerk almost as fast as stonks after the FOMC statement release, is the barrage of bite-sized comments from the strategist/economist peanut gallery. And since today is no difference, with the digital ink on the FOMC statement still wet so to speak, here is the first barrage of sellside reactions.

Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights

“The FOMC statement was more dovish on inflation, albeit still cautious, but the one word change from the ‘pace’ of future rate hikes to the ‘extent’ of future hikes tells you that when the Minutes come out, we’ll likely read that officials have begun to debate when to pause. “It seems that the market is taking this as somewhat hawkish because the Fed actually plans to follow through and get to 5.00%-5.25% on the funds rate as opposed to market participants’ hope that perhaps this would be the last hike. No such luck, but I think acknowledging that inflation has moderated somewhat and signaling that the ‘pause’ debate is underway is dovish.”

Ben Jeffery at BMO Capital Markets says:

“Biggest takeaway from the FOMC statement, along with the widely-expected 25 bp rate hike, was that the Fed opted to leave ‘ongoing’ within the formal language and indicated that there are more tightening moves to be realized this cycle.”

Priya Misra at TD Securities says

“So far slightly hawkish message — inflation has eased but remains elevated. They hiked 25bp and likely will hike a few more times in their base case. Should move front end rates higher. Not good for risk assets so long end might keep a bit of a bid. Focus on whether Powell talks about his current view on the terminal rate and fin conditions at the presser.”

Dennis DeBusschere, of 22V Research

“As always, wait for the press conference, and in particular, how much Powell focuses on pain. The need for the economy to take some pain, or not. At the last meeting, he was very pain-focused.”

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets

“Nothing to see here, folks.” But the retention of “ongoing increases” guidance could be, essentially, an effort to address the easing in financial conditions: “That could be an effort to push the bond market towards higher yields in the here and now.”

Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelchief G-10 FX strategist, says keep looking

“The dollar is up marginally on the Fed’s confirmed hawkish bias, but this could prove a short-lived bounce, as there’s nothing particularly new here and nothing to alter what remains a dollar-negative narrative this year.”

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro

“Interesting change in the second-to-last paragraph. They took out ‘public health’ when discussing ‘assessments will take into account a wide range of information…’ — Lines up with Biden’s ending of the public health emergency. I know it is coming in May, but nonetheless.”

John Bellows, Western Asset

“There is only so much Powell can say to push back on the divergence between markets and the Fed.”

developing

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 14:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/hn0Bv6a Tyler Durden

Watch: Will Fed Chair Powell Call The Market’s ‘Dovish’ Bluff?

Watch: Will Fed Chair Powell Call The Market’s ‘Dovish’ Bluff?

For the last six weeks, since the prior FOMC meeting, the market has ignored every Fed Speaker’s hawkish jawboning against the market’s “unwarranted easing” of financial conditions in the face of The Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative.

After the expected 25bps hike and a mixed basket from the statement, the market, simply put, expects a ‘hawkish’ Powell in rhetoric but believe he and his pals are ‘all bark, and no bite’.

So, is it possible that Powell can deliver a Jackson Hole 2.0-esque conference call that the market will believe… or have animal spirits taken over?

Watch live here (press conference due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 14:25

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Fed Hikes 25bps As Expected, Maintains Hawkish “Ongoing Increases” Language

Fed Hikes 25bps As Expected, Maintains Hawkish “Ongoing Increases” Language

Tl;dr: The Fed hiked 25bps as fully expected and the statement had 3 key highlights:

  1. Hawkish – keeps “ongoing increases” (plural) language signaling no pause in March.

  2. Small Dovish – adds inflation “has eased somewhat” but notes “remains elevated.”

  3. Dovish – Changes “pace” of future increases with “extent”, as it transitions from the rate of hikes to the duration of higher rates before any pivot.

As Inflation Insights suggests:

“The one word change from the ‘pace’ of future rate hikes to the ‘extent’ of future hikes tells you that when the Minutes come out, we’ll likely read that officials have begun to debate when to pause.”

While everyone expects a ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from Powell in the presser, we suspect it won’t be ‘hawkish’ enough.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on December 14th, a lot has changed for markets. While the dollar is lower and bonds are flat; gold, stocks, and crypto have all rallied strongly in an ‘easing’-like move…

Source: Bloomberg

…but not a lot has changed for the market’s view of the Fed’s rate-trajectory (in fact, they have shifted hawkishly since the actual FOMC day close)…

Source: Bloomberg

But while rate expectations have drifted hawkishly, financial conditions have eased dramatically, equivalently erasing 100s of bps of rate-hikes and QT along the way….

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, in case you were hoping for the ‘soft’ landing, since the last FOMC meeting, the labor market has dramatically outperformed expectations while ‘soft’ survey and ‘hard’ industrial data has significantly weakened (and perhaps today’s ADP disappointment gives us a glimpse of reality… not weather)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before we get to the fun and games, bear in mind that there is no SEP (dotplots) today, so Powell will be on his own to jawbone any rate-trajectory expectations (which for now remains massively more hawkish than the market…

Source: Bloomberg

As the FOMC statement hit, the odds of a 25bps hike in March were 79% and 46% for another 25bps in May…

So what did The Fed do?

The Fed hiked rates by 25bps to the 4.5%-4.75% target range.

The key sentence was unchanged (leaving “increases” (plural) in is hawkish)…

“The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

This language suggests The Fed is inclined toward quarter-point rate hikes at next two meetings in March and May, rather than toward a pause after March.

There was a very modestly dovish nod to the progress:

Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.

Finally, in a dovish changes, The Fed nodded toward ‘duration’ of higher rates as opposed to ‘how high’:

…will consider “extent of future increases,” a slight change from the prior language on the “pace” of hikes

The market is anticipating Powell to be ‘hawkish’ in the conference call… but believes his rhetoric is ‘all bark and no bite’ – we shall see.

As Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research noted:

“As always, wait for the press conference, and in particular, how much Powell focuses on pain. The need for the economy to take some pain, or not. At the last meeting, he was very pain-focused.”

Read the full redline below:

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 14:05

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US Preps Ukraine Package With Rockets That Can Reach Nearly 100 Miles

US Preps Ukraine Package With Rockets That Can Reach Nearly 100 Miles

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US is preparing another major escalation of military aid to Ukraine as Reuters reports the next arms package will include rockets that have a range of 94 miles (150 km), almost double the range of the munitions Ukraine was provided for the HIMARS rocket systems.

Citing two unnamed US officials, Reuters said that the US will provide Ukraine with the longer-range Boeing-made Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) for the first time as part of an over $2 billion arms package that could be announced as soon as this week.

Small Diameter Bomb. Image Credit: Boeing.

The officials said that the GLSDB will be provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows the Pentagon to purchase arms for Ukraine. Weapons provided under the USAI could take months or years to deliver as they involve contracts and might need to be manufactured.

But Boeing has been preparing for months to make the GLSDBs for Ukraine. Reuters first reported in November that the US was considering sending the munitions to Kyiv and said they could be available by the spring. The system has been in development since 2019 and combines small-diameter bombs with the M26 rocket motor, which is widely available in US military inventories.

Sending the longer-range weapons risks provoking Moscow and comes after a series of new aid pledges for Ukraine that included the Bradley Fighting Vehicles and M1 Abrams tanks for the first time. Each escalation of aid brings the US and Russia closer to a direct conflict, which could quickly spiral into nuclear war.

The new weapons package is expected to include $1.725 billion in USAI funds that will go toward the GLSDB as well as HAWK air defense systems, counter-drone systems, counter artillery radars, communications equipment, PUMA surveillance drones, and spare parts for Patriot air defense systems and Bradleys.

The package might also include $400 million for the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows President Biden to send Ukraine weapons directly from US military stockpiles. The drawdown package will likely include mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles (MRAPs), guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS), and other ammunition.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 13:45

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George Santos To Step Down From House Committees

George Santos To Step Down From House Committees

Rep. George Santos (R-NY) told colleagues on Tuesday that he will be stepping down from his assignments on two House committees, according to Axios, citing five sources.

Santos will be steppinging down from the Small Business and Science Committees, as the House member from Long Island faces several investigations over lies told on the campaign trail, as well as questions over campaign finances.

That said, Santos indicated that the recusal is not permanent.

“It sounds to me like it’s temporary … I think until there’s a level of what he thinks the issues he’s a distraction from are over with,” said Rep. Roger Williams (R-TX), who chairs the Small Business Committee.

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, who has called for Santos’ resignation, said that “[until] this situation is sorted out and the ethics investigations are complete, I think it’s the right decision.”

More via Axios:

What they’re saying: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters he and Santos talked about the move on Monday: “I met with George Santos yesterday … We had a discussion and he asked me if he could do that.”

  • “I think it was an appropriate decision that, until he can clear everything up, he’s off of committees right now,” McCarthy added.

What he’s saying: Santos declined to comment to Axios: “I think you guys are asking too many questions pertaining to what happened in conference, I will not be discussing what happened in conference.”

Last week we noted that Santos had come under scrutiny over potential campaign finance violations – a much more serious class of misconduct which could result in expulsion from Congress, civil penalties and criminal prosecution.

The questions center around the hundreds of thousands of dollars Santos has loaned his campaigns from personal accounts; his sharp increase in reported wealthan outside group that was raising funds on behalf of his campaign, without being registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC); and a host of expenses submitted by his campaign for $199.99 — one cent less than the figure requiring receipts. -The Hill

“We certainly are talking about potential FEC investigations and DOJ investigations,” said Robert Maguire, head of research for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

In addition to reported investigations into his finances, Santos also faces several ethics complaints.

Santos’s personal wealth spiked between his 2020 and 2022 campaigns – which coincided with the creation of the Devolder Organization, LLC – as well as at least $705,000 in what he originally said were personal loans to his 2022 campaign.

Last Tuesday, however, Santos admitted that a $500,000 loan he gave to his campaign, did not in fact come from personal funds. And as the Daily Beast reported at the time, the question is – where did the money come from?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 12:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Lz8JFm4 Tyler Durden

‘PayPal Peril’: Twitter Prepping For Payments, Could Include Bitcoin

‘PayPal Peril’: Twitter Prepping For Payments, Could Include Bitcoin

Authored by ‘BTCCasey’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Elon Musk is going head to head with his old company PayPal as Twitter gears up to become an online payments business.

  • Twitter is prepping for payments, and bitcoin might be in the mix.

  • According to a Financial Times report, Elon is open to adding BTC and crypto to its Twitter payments vision.

  • While the “super app” vision would prioritize fiat, its future will likely include the alternative payment method.

Elon Musk’s Twitter has reportedly begun applying for regulatory licenses across the U.S. in apparent preparation to begin facilitating payments through the app.

People close to the company stated that Twitter “has started to map out the architecture needed to facilitate payments on the platform with a small team,” which could potentially include functionality for cryptocurrency payments, the Financial Times reported.

While Twitter had set up a subsidiary, Twitter Payments LLC, in August last year before Musk took over the company, Musk recently appointed Esther Crawford, Twitter’s director of product management, as the chief executive of Twitter Payments.

According to the FT source, Musk has stated that he wants Twitter to serve fiat payments first, but be made with the ability to enable cryptocurrency later on.

This would not be the first time that Elon Musk’s businesses have facilitated bitcoin transactions.

Musk has previously accepted bitcoin for his Tesla electric vehicles, but later retracted the ability due to concerns about renewable energy.

While there are no firm plans to implement this interoperability, Musk has firmly reiterated since his taking over of the social media firm that he wants to see it become more of a generalized “super app.”

This multifunctionality approach would benefit greatly from the increased functionality of cheap, instantaneous payments using a platform like the Bitcoin Lightning Network.

Twitter previously tested “tipping” through the Bitcoin Lightning Network via Jack Mallers’ Strike, later adding the ability for users to add a Bitcoin address to directly receive their tips. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/01/2023 – 13:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lAcaHuE Tyler Durden