Fastest Drop Since ‘Lehman’: Chicago PMI Puke Screams Stagflation

After miraculously surging to two years highs in Nov 2023, Chicago PMI has plunged for five straight months, with the last four months seeing the MoM declines accelerating. Against expectations of a rise to 45.0 (from March’s 41.4), April’s PMI data printed 37.9

Source: Bloomberg

That is the worst five-month collapse since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

More problematically – the underlying data screams stagflation:

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

All of which leaves ‘hope’ languishing at ‘Bidenomics’-cycle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

And cue…

cue mainstream media splaining to Chicago: “you don’t understand how strong Biden’s economy is” https://t.co/W1ewTgjsLx pic.twitter.com/lrhYqDDNM7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 30, 2024