Month: May 2024

The battle started a decade ago with conservative parents in the eastern areas of Baton Rouge, Louisiana seeking the right to send their children to better public schools.  Their requests for a redistricting to build a new school in their area was denied by the city.  Year after year Louisiana public schools have been rated some of the worst performing schools in the US, not just in education but also in safety. 

Then there was the ongoing threat of rising crime combined with persistent Democrat controlled leadership; the policies of progressives directly contributed to repeat offenders being released onto the streets.  Conservative residents, feeling that Baton Rouge leaders had no intention of representing their interests or listening to their concerns, decided they had to take drastic measures to make a change.

The result was an effort of citizens in the east to break away from Baton Rouge entirely and create their own city, called St. George.  The problem for Democrats was that citizen proponents of the new city would be taking away access to their money, their businesses and their children.  This was apparently unacceptable.

The corporate media and elements of the Democratic Party immediately launched a propaganda effort to paint the breakaway community (and other movements like it) as “white flight” and a new form of segregation.  Their argument was that the petitions for St. George were racially motivated and a return to the Jim Crow era of Louisiana politics. 

Keep in mind, the St.George movement started in 2014, well before the full bore institution of woke propaganda in Democrat run public schools districts.  In hindsight, the people in eastern Baton Rouge timed their efforts perfectly and there are a lot of reasons to leave, as the city has only become worse in the past ten years.

Advocates for St. George argue that the move was never racially motivated, only policy motivated.  Everything Democrats touch eventually turns to rot.  This has been consistently proven with the top most violent cities in the US being managed by Democrats and the top worst cities for school safety in the US managed by Democrats.  Progressives have tried to deny this for years but they can’t argue with the numbers; their only retort is that the issue is “more nuanced” than conservatives believe.

Racially speaking (if Democrats really want to go there), it’s fair to point out that the worst hit areas for crime in cities like Baton Rouge are consistently in neighborhoods with a black demographic.  It’s not racist to say this, it’s just a reality.  Politically speaking, it makes sense that conservatives would want to protect their children from far-left ideological narratives now permeating public schools within progressive areas, as well as keep them safe from random violence.  The leftist position is essentially this: 

“You aren’t allowed to shield your children from Diversity, Equity and Inclusion training.  To try is bigotry and you must be stopped.  Woke ideology is not optional, it’s a requirement.” 

In other words, separation based on preference is considered “wrong” by Democrats.  This has been the underlying motivation for the progressive war on school voucher programs and public choice across the country.  Leftists are only able to survive when they can force people to participate in their systems.  Whenever individuals are given an alternative and an option to walk away most of them do.  Leftists don’t like it because it makes them look bad and it moves delicious tax dollars out of their reach.  Democrats see taxes as a form of wealth redistribution rather than communities investing in their own infrastructure, and this often leads to egregious mismanagement of city funds.   

Let’s not forget, these are the same people that constantly cry about conservatives supposedly threatening democracy, yet they are quick to criticize when democracy doesn’t work to their benefit.  

Luckily, a majority in the Louisiana Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the creation of St. George and the residents there have been given a chance to go their own way.  The media is calling it an attempt at “secession” and maybe it is, but is that really a bad thing?  Shouldn’t different communities and people with different ideals be allowed to break away if they want and manage their own affairs in the way they prefer?  As long as they follow basic constitutional principles then there’s no reason for Democrats to object, unless the issue is really all about control.  

Authored by Eric Worrall via Watts Up With That,

h/t Dr. Willie Soon; Who could have predicted acres of fragile floating structures would be vulnerable to bad weather?

Madhya Pradesh: Summer Storm Damages World’s Largest Floating Solar Plant at Omkareshwar Dam (Watch Video)

Indore: A summer storm on Tuesday damaged a floating solar plant at Madhya Pradesh’s Omkareshwar dam. The floating solar plant, situated in the backwater of the dam, is the biggest of its kind in the world. A joint venture between  Madhya Pradesh Govt and National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), the project was nearly completed and ready for its launch. A part of the project became operational last week.

The project near the village of Kelwa Khurd, aimed at generating 100 MW of electricity, with additional capacities of 88MW at Indawadi and 90 MW at Ekhand village. However, on Tuesday, summer storms with the speed of 50kmph hit the project and threw the solar panels all around the place. No employee was fortunately injured.

…

Read more: https://www.lokmattimes.com/national/madhya-pradesh-summer-storm-damages-worlds-largest-floating-solar-plant-at-omkareshwar-dam-watch-video-a514/

A video of the disaster;

AL GORE please pick up the red emergency phone.

Storm destroys the world’s largest floating Solar Panel Farm.

What Valedictorian engineer signed off on this stupidity.pic.twitter.com/zRBOREibGi

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) May 5, 2024

Anyone who has ever owned a boat, particular a large boat which gets left in the water, knows what a harsh environment the sea can be. Some kind of failure was inevitable. If it hadn’t been a storm, there are plenty of other things which could have gone wrong.

Greens keep telling us we can expect more frequent and extreme superstorms – so what is the point of building vulnerable floating structures?

Plastics tend to disintegrate under tropical sunlight, especially when in contact with water or water spray. Ultraviolet from the sun drives exotic chemical reactions, which leads to chemical breakdown.

Metal sitting in water is difficult to manage, even stainless steel is not immune to corrosion. All metal structures in contact with water need to be protected with sacrificial anodes or comparable protective measures. Electricity and metal are an especially bad combination, any electrical fault which causes a current to run through metal in contact with water can cause corrosion to occur thousands of times faster than normal.

Let us hope developers and politicians take the hint, and stop throwing our money at inherently flawed ideas like floating solar arrays.

We’ve asked the question: 

• Ready For IPO? Starlink Achieves Cash-Flow Breakeven

Followed by:

• SpaceX Prepares For Starlink IPO In 2024, Report Says

A new report from Quilty Space, first reported by SpaceNews, shows SpaceX’s Starlink could be closer than ever to an initial public offering. The space internet company’s 2024 forecasted revenue will top $6.6 billion. 

“Starlink’s achievements over the past three years are mind-blowing,” the report said, adding,  “We’re projecting a revenue jump from $1.4 billion in 2022 to $6.6 billion in 2024.”

To give you an idea of scale, SES and Intelsat, the two biggest geostationary satellite operators that just announced a merger, have a combined revenue of about $4.1 billion.

In 2019, SpaceX launched the first 60 Starlink satellites on the company’s Falcon 9 rocket. Fast-forward to today, and Starlink has a constellation of nearly 6,000 satellites, over 5,200 operational, and nearly 3 million terminals across 75 countries. 

In November, Elon Musk posted on X, “Excited to announce that @SpaceX @Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow!” 

Excited to announce that @SpaceX @Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow! Excellent work by a great team.

Starlink is also now a majority of all active satellites and will have launched a a majority of all satellites cumulatively from Earth by next year.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 2, 2023

Quilty expects “Starlink to achieve positive free cash flow for the first time in 2024.” 

Achieving positive free cash flow could be one of the major milestones Musk needs before debuting a Starlink IPO. He previously stated in 2022, “I’m not sure exactly when that [IPO] is, but maybe it will be like — I don’t know, just guessing — three or four years from now.” 

Last year, billionaire investor Ron Baron told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin that SpaceX plans to IPO Starlink in 2027. 

Baron said, “We think that by the time they go public with SpaceX, with Starlink … in 2027 or so, four years, the company will be worth $250 billion to $300 billion.”

CNBC reported that the latest valuation figure for SpaceX was around $180 billion in December. 

Authored by Nick Corbishley via naked capitalism,

At a time when the dominant narrative around cash is that its demise is all but inevitable, as well as broadly desirable, the 2024 payment report by Sweden’s Riksbank may offer a cautionary tale. 

In October last year, in More Good News for Cash in Europe, More Bad News for Digital Dollar in US, we reported that recent developments suggest that the trend away from cash and toward purely digital-only payment systems may not be quite as smooth or as seamless as some may have wished or expected. One of the developments we highlighted in that report was growing concern among central bankers and politicians in Sweden, one of Europe’s most cashless economies, about the unintended consequences of driving cash out of the economy:

Even by late 2020, Sweden had less cash in circulation than just about anywhere else in the world, at around 1% of gross domestic product, according to the latest available data. That compares with 8% in the U.S. and more than 10% in the euro area. As a recent piece in Interesting Engineering notes, Sweden is already “officially cashless”:

Cash is never needed, not even for small purchases like hot chocolate at a Christmas market in Stockholm. All vendors have a mobile payment chip-and-PIN card reader like the one offered by Stockholm-based mobile payments company iZettle, or they accept payments through the mobile application Swish. Swishing is perhaps the easiest way of payment for everyone.

The Risks of Going Fully Cashless

But now the country is beginning to realise that an almost exclusively digital payments system comes with significant risks, especially at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. In time-honoured fashion, the article in the UK Telegraph began with a spot of fearmongering about Vladimir Putin.

“People started to realise that it is very easy for Vladimir Putin to switch everything off,” Björn Eriksson, a retired police chief, former head of Interpol and leading cash advocate, told the Telegraph.  “At first we were arguing for vulnerable people, the elderly, women in abusive relationships who rely on cash… Now we are talking about national security. And it’s not only Putin, it could also be organised crime.”

In 2021, the Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank (and the world’s oldest), introduced a new directive obliging the country’s six largest credit institutions to continue providing their customers with certain basic cash services.

But while that may have meant that people in Sweden can continue to access cash from their local branch, it is becoming increasingly difficult to use it as fewer and fewer retail businesses accept notes and coins.

This is partly due to the greater convenience of handling digital payments while the card processing fees are substantially lower than the US. But it is also because most Swedes, including many pensioners, prefer to use cards or mobile payments. As a baker in Stockholm told the Telegraph, “the only people who bring cash to the shop are tourists. I feel bad for them because they just take the krona home, where it is useless.”

But even that trend may be reversing. According to Eriksson, a growing number of young people are joining the pro-cash movement — and mainly over privacy concerns.

Rediscovering the Benefits of Cash

Earlier this week, Heise Online, a German online news service that covers IT, telecommunications, and technology sectors, published a long, in-depth report about the Riksbank’s apparent rediscovery of some of the benefits of cash. The article also explores some of the Riksbank’s concerns about the potential fragility of a fully cashless payment system, as outlined in its 2024 Payments Report, published in March.

At a time when the dominant narrative around cash — as espoused by senior bankers, central bankers, big tech and fintech executives, politicians and economists, and of course, their ever-faithful servants in the media — is that its demise is all but inevitable, even in countries where cash is still King (Germany, Spain, Austria, Mexico, Thailand, Japan…), the Riksbank’s report may offer a cautionary tale. From the Heise Online piece (machine translated):

“The Swedish payments market has been digitized rapidly,” states the Riksbank. Cash and manual payment services have been replaced by cards, mobile phones and internet services. “As a result, payments have become faster, smoother and cheaper overall,” which the institute points out is “a positive development.” However, there are groups in society “who do not have access to digital payment services or find it difficult to use them and are therefore marginalized”. There are also “serious fraud problems that could undermine trust in the payment system.”

Digitalization also makes payments “more vulnerable to cyber attacks and disruptions to the power grid and data communication,” the bank points out. At the same time, the geopolitical developments of the past few years required “Sweden to have strong civil defense.” The developments suggested “that we should concentrate more than before on the challenges of digitalization.”

Put another way, cash does not crash. It does not fail in a power cut or seize up during a cyber attack (though, of course, ATMs might). By contrast, digital payment systems need a stable and continuous internet connection to process transactions. When these connections fail, the result is often chaos. Digital payment outages have caused significant disruption in a host of countries in recent years, including the US, the UK, Australia, Indonesia, Germany, Canada, Spain and Norway. Generally speaking, the more cashless the country, the greater the disruption.

Sweden’s Cashless Journey

Sweden is one of the world’s most cashless economies. In large part, its abandonment of cash was the result of technological and generational shifts. As payment technologies began to change in the first two decades of this century, most Swedish citizens began to prefer the speed, ease and convenience of digital payments.

They were also nudged heavily in that direction by commercial banks, which by 2016 had made 60% of their branches cashless, as a 2019 Riksbank working paper documents. This made it much more difficult for citizens to access cash and for businesses to deposit it, which in turn accelerated the uptake of digital payments and the abandonment.

Sweden’s legal tender laws also made it possible for the Riksbank to withdraw many of Sweden’s large denomination notes in circulation. For instance, the value of 1,000-krona notes (worth just over $90) in circulation declined gradually from SEK 48.4 billion in 2001 to SEK 21.4 billion in December 2012. Beginning in 2013, this decline accelerated, plunging to SEK 9.7 billion by December 2013.

After playing a part in the wholesale removal of cash from Sweden’s economy, the Riksbank is now trying to reverse some of the damage it has caused. It is not the only Scandinavian central bank to have flagged up the fragility risks of exclusively digital payment systems. In 2022, the Bank of Finland recommended that the use of cash payments be guaranteed by law. Like all Nordic countries, Finland is a largely cash-free economy. But like Sweden, it has begun to see the risks of going too far, too soon.

In March 2022, the central bank initiated a proposal for legislation to ensure a minimal level of cash-paid services. In October of that year, the Head of the Payment Systems Department and Chief Cashier at the Bank of Finland, Päivi Heikkinen, even advised households to make sure they have some cash on hand, just in case the country’s payments system were to go down. At the time, Finland had just applied to become a NATO member and the government was fretting about the risk of cyber attacks from Russia. In an interview with the national broadcaster, Heikkinen said her intention was not to ”fabricate catastrophic scenarios” — before saying that in the worst case scenario, the payments system could go down for a period of weeks.

In Sweden, the Riksbank is already taking countermeasures to try to guarantee a steady supply of cash, the Heise Online article notes:

It is improving the cash supply by setting up new offices where companies can collect and deposit cash. Having such cash depots in more locations across the country would reduce both the costs for businesses and the risk that cash would no longer be usable in the event of a disruption.

This is the only way to ensure “that everyone can pay”. In general, “stronger legal protection for cash” is necessary. Banks should be required to “accept cash deposits, including coins, from individuals.”

The Riksbank supports its demands with reference to an annual representative survey on the payment habits of Swedes. According to this, “cash is being used more frequently than before”. Almost half of respondents reported using cash in the past month, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to 2022.

This pro-active approach to bolstering the cash system contrasts sharply with what some central banks and governments are saying and doing in other Western or Western-adjacent countries. As we reported in August, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies is mulling a number of legislative proposals calling for an end to the printing, minting and circulation of physical notes and coins. As the World Economic Forum trumpeted in 2022, Brazilians are adopting digital payments faster than anyone else.

In Australia, the government refuses to legally protect the use of cash in retail settings. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock, has even warned that as the running costs of processing cash for banks and businesses mount as a result of the declining share of consumer payments made using cash, it may become necessary to begin charging people for using cash in retail settings.

Granted, Australia is significantly larger and more sparsely populated than Sweden, making it much harder and more costly to transport money securely to all parts of the country, including remote parts of Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia. But whereas the Riksbank is talking about taking on a proactive role, together with other authorities and banks, to ensure that cash can be transported to and from retail outlets at reasonable prices, the RBA is talking about making consumers pay for the privilege of using cash. Meanwhile, Armaguard, Australia’s largest currency transport business, servicing around 90% of the cash-in-transit market, is warning of bankruptcy — unless the banks agree to pay more for its services.

Predictably, Bullock’s suggestion that citizens may one day have to fork over extra fees for the privilege of paying with cash — to protect the banks and retailers from the exorbitant costs of maintaining cash infrastructure — did not go down well with many Australians. While most citizens are using digital payments for most, if not all, of their purchases, millions still depend on cash in their daily lives.

What’s more, the very same Big Four banks Bullock wants to protect from having to part with extra money to fortify Australia’s cash network have posted record or near-record profits in recent times, in part because of surging interest rates but also because of the rising fees they charge on card payments. Those same banks received huge sums of cheap debt to tide them over during the COVID-19 pandemic while at the same time closing hundreds of branches and ATMs across the country.

In Sweden, as Heisse Online notes, more and more Swedes see the decline in cash consumption as a negative development — 44 percent in 2023 compared to 36 percent in the previous year:

The proportion of respondents who believe that they cannot get by without cash in today’s society has also increased compared to 2022. This could also be “an effect of increased crisis awareness due to the war in Ukraine,” the bankers speculate.

The need to pay in cash in certain situations such as at clubs, in corner shops and at flea markets is also mentioned, the report goes on to say. Some also emphasized that using cash made it easier for them to keep track of their finances. Older people generally find it much more difficult to get by without cash than younger people. In the 2023 survey, half of respondents said they wanted to pay cash but the store did not accept it. In 2022 the corresponding value was only 37 percent…

These numbers suggest that cash may be experiencing a mini-renaissance in Sweden, which would echo similar trends seen in other heavily cashless economies. For example, a recent survey down under by fintech company Waave revealed that as many as 71% of Australians are worried about the economy becoming completely cashless. Those most concerned include Baby Boomers (82%), regional Australians (77%), and lower income households earning less than $100k (75%) — a reminder of the oft-ignored class-war element of the War on Cash.

It’s not hard to see why concerns about the future of cash are on the rise down under. In recent months, three of Australia’s Big Four banks have removed over-the-counter cash withdrawals from some of their branches while increasing numbers of businesses, both large and small, are choosing to reject cash payments altogether. In Australia, it is perfectly legal for businesses to refuse to accept cash as long as they inform consumers of their stance before any “contract” for the supply of goods or services is entered into.

Aussie cash lovers recently expressed their displeasure with these trends through a “Draw Out Some Cash Day” on April 2. According to news.com.au, hoards of people were seen lining up to withdraw cash:

The movement, led by the Cash is King Facebook group, aimed to show banks and retailers there is still a demand for cash amid warnings the country will be “functionally cashless” by 2025.

Social media posts show “massive queues” of people, both young and old, lining up at various banks around the country, with one woman sharing she waited for up to an hour to get her hands on bank notes.

“All banks I passed today had queues out the door,” one person wrote on Facebook alongside a picture of people lining up outside a Commonwealth Bank branch.

Governments in other countries, including Ireland, Spain, Slovakia and Austria, are taking pro-active steps to protect the use of cash. Even the European Central Bank has called for a regulatory crackdown on all businesses and public bodies in the Euro Area that refuse to accept cash. At the same time, the ECB is proceeding in its digital euro project from the “investigation phase” to the “preparation phase.”

As I noted at the time, cash is still the most frequently used payment method in the Euro Area, though it is losing ground to cards. Even if, or when, the digital euro is launched, it will presumably coexist with cash for some time, at least until the digital euro gains a strong enough foothold. ECB President Lagarde has said that “cash is here to stay,” adding that European citizens “will have both options: cash and digital cash.” How long it stays that way will remain to be seen. My guess is that if the digital euro does gain a strong foothold, the ECB will begin financially incentivising its use while decentivising the use of cash.

In the UK, meanwhile, cash may even be staging a comeback of sorts after ten consecutive years of falling use. According to both UK Finance, the country’s largest bank association, and the British Retail Consortium Group, the most influential retail lobbying group, cash use increased in 2022, for the first time in a decade. Whether this rebound represents a genuine trend reversal or merely a dead cat bounce (apologies, as always, to feline lovers) remains to be seen. But the mere fact that cash use is growing at all despite concerted efforts by the government, banks and retailers to reduce its use is noteworthy.

So, too, is the fact that Sweden’s Riksbank is expressing reservations about the resilience of a fully cashless society. After all, the Riksbank was one of the first central banks in Europe to begin aggressively undermining the role of cash in the economy. That said, its U-turn on cash it is not as novel a development as is suggested by the Heise Online article. The Riksbank, the article claims in its introduction, “is suddenly emphasising the indispensable role of cash in secure, widely available payment systems. This is a change in strategy.”

That is somewhat misleading. As the German financial journalist Norbert Häring notes (in German) on his blog, while there has definitely been a sea change in strategy at the Riksbank, that change did not begin just now but rather eight years ago, “after the central bank, together with Sweden’s commercial banks, had done everything they could to undermine the use of cash.” Since early 2016 Sweden’s central bank has slowed the march towards a cashless society, as Häring reported at the time.

Now, the Riksbank is not just questioning the wisdom of moving to a fully cashless economy at this current moment in time; it is explicitly warning about the potential risks such a move might entail. At the same time, it is working on developing a CBDC — the so-called e-krona, now in its fourth and final pilot phase, looking at “how an e-Krona can be used offline for payments if electricity and telecommunications are not working.” Which begs the question: once the e-krona is ready to launch, which will presumably be sooner than most other CBDCs in the West, how will it co-exist with cash? That will have to be the subject of a future article, though readers’ suggestions are more than welcome in the meantime.

Over the last two centuries there has been significant progress in human health and longevity. Initially, in the early 19th century, life expectancy did not surpass 40 years globally, reflecting harsh conditions like extreme poverty, limited medical care, and poor sanitation. By 1950, this figure had seen notable improvements, especially in regions like Europe, North America, and parts of South America, with averages rising above 60 years. Countries such as Norway boasted a life expectancy of 72 years, while others like Mali lagged at 26 years.

From 1950 to 2000, substantial strides were made particularly in Asia and Latin America, reflecting global efforts to improve health and living standards. According to the UN World Population Prospects 2022, these trends are expected to continue, projecting that by 2050, life expectancy at birth will surpass 80 years in most global regions. This infographic captures these transformative changes, presenting a hopeful outlook on the future of global health.

Visualizing this is Marcus Lu and Bruno Venditti of Visual Capitalist:

Continued:

The improvement in life expectancy can be attributed to various factors such as advancements in medical technology, better healthcare infrastructure, improved sanitation, access to clean water, and increased awareness about health and nutrition.

In Perspective With History

Although today it seems like rising life expectancy is a given, for much of history it’s worth noting that the situation was much more static.

As shown in the above chart, for most of human history life expectancy at birth actually sat in the 20-30 year range. It’s only since the mid-19th century that the aforementioned improvements (sanitation, clean water, etc.) allowed for the exponential and regular progress we see today.

Via Middle East Eye

In a grand procession last week, Sinai militia leader Ibrahim al-Organi arrived at a ceremony to inaugurate the Arab Tribes Union, a new paramilitary entity that brings together five tribal groups from across Egypt. The celebration named President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the union’s “honorary president”, while also announcing plans to build Sisi City on the site of al-Arjaa, a village in Rafah near the Egypt-Israel border.

The formation of this alliance comes at a critical time and place, as Israel this week launched a long-threatened ground offensive against the Palestinian city of Rafah, just a short distance from where the Egyptian ceremony was held. Around 1.4 million displaced Palestinians have been sheltering in Rafah since Israel launched its war on Gaza last October.

Israel’s assault on Rafah is likely to cause further mass displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, potentially pushing them towards Egyptian territory. At least 80,000 have already fled Rafah, according to UNRWA, the UN Palestinian refugee agency.

It was thus no coincidence that the union’s founding statement noted its aim to “adopt national issues and connect with all Arab tribes to find common ground within the framework of the state, to serve its objectives, and to support the Egyptian president who seeks to protect Egypt’s national security and its Arab nation against the displacement plans aimed at resolving the Palestinian issue at Egypt’s expense.”

Since the outbreak of the Gaza war on October 7, Egyptian officials have repeatedly expressed concerns over the potential displacement of Palestinians to the Sinai. They have even threatened to freeze the country’s peace treaty with Israel.

The historical experiences of Palestinian displacement, along with Israel’s goal to empty historic Palestine of its people, prevent their return and seize their lands, are well known to the Egyptian state.

At the same time, the Palestinian people’s attachment to their land and insistence on their right of return, no matter how long it takes, has made each area of Palestinian displacement – whether in Lebanon, Syria or Jordan – a focal point for resisting the occupation, something Egypt does not want.

All options for dealing with this matter, it seems, are bitter, from the emergence of pockets of Palestinian resistance in the Sinai akin to what happened in Lebanon in the 1970s, to a confrontation of the kind that occurred in Jordan during Black September.

Yet Egypt cannot stop the Israeli military operation, nor halt its tanks from invading the tents of displaced Palestinians in Rafah. The Egyptian regime will not deviate from the US perspective in dealing with the recklessness of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which means it will have to deal directly with the massive crowds of displaced people likely headed towards Egyptian territory.

Early on, Egypt started taking precautions for this scenario, overlooking many humanitarian details. It reinforced the fences and barriers along its border with the Gaza Strip, tightened border security, and mobilised support and funding for alternative camps within Gaza itself.

In the event of a mass displacement into its territory, Egypt appears to be planning to confine displaced Palestinians in a high-security, isolated area along the border, allowing the state to maintain tight control and apply pressure to hasten their return to Gaza.

But there are a couple of issues with this plan. For one, many displaced Palestinians have family and tribal ties in the northern Sinai. The Egyptian and Palestinian cities of Rafah were once united as a single city, until Israel’s withdrawal from the Sinai and the demarcation of borders in 1982. Many tribes are still divided, with some members in Palestinian Rafah and others in Egyptian Rafah. 

Horrible scenes from the Gaza-Egypt border shows Egyptian military harassing and mishandling a Palestinian boy who managed to slip through the border to escape the onslaught in Rafah. pic.twitter.com/PoaHmxoh82

— روني الدنماركي (@Aldanmarki) May 8, 2024

Tribal customs compel hospitality and reception, which will weaken the ability of the Egyptian state to contain all displaced people in a single area. This could also open the door to fresh confrontations and disputes between state agencies and Sinai tribes.

Simmering public anger

In addition, a wave of displacement would raise significant challenges for Egypt from a military and security perspective. The last thing the Egyptian regime wants is an image of an Egyptian soldier firing at displaced Palestinians, or in any way treating them improperly, amid the unprecedented tragedy in Gaza – especially considering the simmering public anger over the Sisi regime’s handling of the Gaza genocide so far.

Through the newly minted Arab Tribes Union, the regime might have found its only option for handling this situation, while avoiding the direct involvement of state soldiers.

This hypothesis is supported by the union’s founding statement, which notes that its inception “comes in response to the current stage requirements, by creating a national popular framework that includes the sons of the Arab tribes, aimed at unifying the ranks and integrating all tribal entities into a single framework in support of the national state priorities, and facing the challenges that threaten its security and stability.”

Organi is a prime choice to lead this task after his previous successes in organizing the Union of Sinai Tribes, which worked alongside the Egyptian army to fight an Islamic State affiliate, and in running companies that manage the movement of people and goods between Gaza and Egypt. But Organi’s companies have also faced allegations of exploitative behavior, including charging millions of dollars from Palestinian refugees fleeing war.

And there are significant risks that under difficult humanitarian conditions, his forces could become involved in smuggling operations, financial extortion, or other types of corruption – not to mention the inherent dangers of forming armed militias, which can prove disastrous to the security and stability of states, sometimes even playing a role in their disintegration.

Since the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus was first identified in humans in 2003, approximately 600 cases have been reported worldwide, with a laboratory-confirmed case-fatality rate (CFR) of 60%.

The recent death of a woman in southwest China who had no contact with poultry signals a potentially alarming shift in the virus’s transmission dynamics, raising the specter of human-to-human transmission, according to a report by the Federation of American Scientists.

Health authorities in Guiyang, Guizhou province concluded that two patients, including the woman who died, did not have contact with poultry before showing symptoms of the illness. Currently, the public health community remains cautious as H5N1 influenza viruses continue to evolve and potentially gain the ability to be transmitted efficiently to humans.

The evolution of H5N1 over two decades necessitates an urgent and strategic response from the global health community. Scientific efforts are primarily focused on understanding the genetic shifts that facilitate the virus’s leap among species, aiming to forestall a possible pandemic. This has led to the controversial practice of gain-of-function (GoF) research, wherein viruses are deliberately engineered to be more potent or transmissible.

And of course, as we all know – a bunch of over-educated idiots cobbling together chimeric viruses that can better-infect humans may have led to the COVID-19 pandemic – as GoF research is fraught with ethical, biosafety, and biosecurity dilemmas.

The dual-use nature of this research—where scientific advances could potentially be misused to cause harm—places it under intense scrutiny. The debate is not just about managing the risks of accidental release but also about the moral implications of potentially providing a blueprint for bioterrorism. This precarious balance between advancing human knowledge and safeguarding public health was thrown into relief in 2012 when a moratorium was placed on H5N1 GoF studies following experiments that showed increased transmissibility in ferrets, an established model for human influenza transmission.

Biosafety risks include laboratory-acquired infections or accidental release of the virus, which are major threats for public health. In fact, last year, researchers around the world took the remarkable step of imposing a moratorium on “gain-of-function” experiments due to concerns about public health risks. The following provides answers to basic questions about the risks of this type of research, the status of the moratorium, and what steps are being taken to mitigate future public health risks. -FAS

This isn’t the first time scientists have policed themselves over security concerns. In 1974, scientists self-imposed a moratorium on recombinant DNA (rDNA) technology due to emerging bioethical concerns, resonates with today’s GoF debates. Like their predecessors, modern scientists are deeply entwined in discussions about the bounds and oversight of high-stakes research. In 1975, scientists at the Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA set out with a goal of considering whether to lift the voluntary moratorium – and if so, under what circumstances could the research proceed safely.

The moratorium was enacted by scientists and governments to protect laboratory personnel, the general public, and the environment from potential hazards that might be directly generated from rDNA experiments. During the conference, recommendations were established for how to safely conduct experiments using rDNA. The debate on potential biohazards was the primary focus of the conference, which is still a continued discussion in biotechnology today.

More via the Federation of American Scientists;

How many researchers/countries are involved in “gain-of-function” experiments?

The letter that announced the voluntary moratorium on H5N1 transmission research, published in Science and Nature, was signed by 40 leading influenza researchers from the United States, China, Japan, Britain, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Germany, Italy, and Canada. Everyone, in some way, may be affected by “gain-of-function” experiments. The “gain-of-function” experiments have a plethora of stakeholders within the international community. In December 2012, the United States hosted the “Gain-of-Function Research on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Viruses: An International Consultative Workshop.” This workshop integrated experts in various fields, including: influenza and other infectious diseases, bioethics, public health surveillance, biosafety, national and global public health, biosecurity, epidemiology, national security, agriculture and veterinary sciences, global public health law and those specifically involved with developing the WHO International Health Regulations and the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, and medical countermeasures to disease outbreak. While the purpose of the moratorium was primarily to take time to discuss risk/benefit analysis of gain-of-function experiments, another important consideration was how to educate the public and gain their acceptance for continued research.

What new steps are being taken to minimize the risk of H5N1 research to public health?

The RAC of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has called for additional precautions on H5N1 “gain-of-function” experiments that are conducted strictly in biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratories, which have been used in recent studies on H5N1 transmissibility. The committee has rejected the option of restricting research to facilities designated as BSL-4 – the highest level of biosafety laboratories – because only a few laboratories around the world would meet this standard. Limiting H5N1 research to only these labs would slow the pace of discovery. Additionally, many experts argue H5N1 experiments can safely be done in BSL-3 with enhanced safeguards. Existing BSL-3 laboratory requirements include: powered air purifying respirators (PAPRS), donning a protective suit, wrap-back disposable gowns, double gloving, shoe covers, and a shower before exiting the laboratory. The recommended steps are aimed at reducing the risk of laboratory-acquired infections and the accidental release of the dangerous pathogens. The additional requirements devised recently by the RAC include: increased personal protective equipment (PPE), a “buddy system” for all personnel, maintaining baseline serum samples, providing a licensed H5N1 vaccine, and requiring personnel to avoid contact with susceptible bird species for five days after working with the viruses. The RAC also recommended proper training of lab personnel would be essential and recommended that personnel be required to sign a statement confirming that they understand the safety and incident-reporting requirements. Additionally, the RAC recommended that all incidents that have the potential to be harmful to personnel and/or the public be reported to institutional authorities immediately and to public health officials within 24 hours.

What are the recommended next steps for the United States concerning the recent moratorium?

Although the H5N1 international research moratorium was lifted in January 2013, the United States has yet to resume research involving gain-of-function experiments on the H5N1 virus and is currently designing a framework for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to make judgments about funding for this type of research. This framework will provide HHS’ funding agencies with guidance on how to classify potentially high-risk gain-of-function projects at the funding proposal stage and make determinations as to whether they are acceptable for HHS funding. For the proposals that are deemed acceptable for funding, the framework will also establish a basis for HHS’ funding agencies to designate any additional biosafety, biosecurity, and DURC risk mitigation measures that they will require of researchers.

With China’s February report of two new human cases of H5N1, the debate of moving forward with “gain-of-function” research remains of upmost importance for global public health. In light of the new cases, researchers are insistent to resume experimentation on the deadly virus in hopes to produce results for prevention or new countermeasures. But the dangerousness of the virus underscores the importance of prioritizing safety when carrying out this research, even if it means pausing for a moment to make sure experimentation does not inadvertently create more problems than it solves.

Malerie Briseno is a Biosecurity Intern at the Federation of American Scientists. She graduated from Georgetown University’s School of Medicine with a M.S. in Biohazardous Threat Agents and Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Christina England is currently a Masters Candidate from the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, specializing in International Security and Economic Policy.  She is serving as a biosecurity intern at the Federation of American Scientists, overseeing its Virtual Biosecurity Center.  She graduated from the United States Air Forces Academy as distinguished graduate, receiving her BS in Biochemistry.

Authored by Vijay Jayaraj via RealClear Wire,

Vietnam and other Asian countries are on a coal spree! Given the dynamics of energy use in the rapidly developing industrial sector there, it is no surprise that these nations have backpedaled on big promises made at international climate conferences to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels. 

Vietnam’s projected 2024 growth rate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stands at 5.8%, the sixth highest in Asia. Among the biggest contributors to GDP is the industrial sector (38 percent), especially manufacturing. S&P Global has noted a considerable improvement in Vietnam’s manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2023 and is expecting Vietnam to perform well this year. 

Electricity is a cornerstone of manufacturing operations in Vietnam. In 2023, coal produced more than 40% of all electricity in the country, while the country’s abundant hydro reserves contributed around 30%. Natural gas accounted for about 10%. 

However, 2024 is expected to see a shortfall in hydroelectric generation because of less rainfall. Simultaneously, electricity production with natural gas is being complicated by forecasts of higher gas prices. Bloomberg reports that state-run PetroVietnam Gas “recently decided not to purchase a cargo for June due to high offer prices.”

So, the heavy lifting to meet power demand must now come from coal. The country is urging coal miners to maximize production before demand reaches peak in the summer months. The country’s prime minister has asked for an increase in coal exploration as well, signaling a sustained interest in the medium to long-time reliance on coal. 

Vietnam’s move to increase coal use was inevitable. It cannot continually risk a huge demand-supply gap whenever dams go dry or gas prices skyrocket. The growth rate of power demand from expanding industries is increasing at a fair pace, and energy security is critical in ensuring manufacturing’s positive trend. 

Similar patterns across Asia

Across Asia, a similar phenomenon is unfolding. The regional coal resurgence can be attributed to the rapid economic growth in these countries. China, the world’s largest coal consumer, witnessed a rise in consumption in 2024. Earlier this year, reports showed the construction of dozens of new coal plants in China. In 2023, the country accounted for 95% of the construction of the world’s new coal power plants. There are a total of 1,142 operating coal-fired plants in China, which is five times more than in the U.S.

India, another major player in the Asian energy market, also saw an increase in coal imports and production. India has increased its spending on infrastructure, with an expected rebound in demand for coal-based steel and raw material manufacturing. Indonesia has 254 operational coal-fired power plants and 40 new plants under construction. Japan, too, is a big consumer of coal, being the top importer of Australian coal in recent years.

Like Australia, the U.S. has been a top source of coal imports for these Asian countries. S&P Global says, “U.S. metallurgical coal exports have seen growth fueled by Asian demand over the past few years. The potential for seaborne volumes to grow hinge on expansions in blast furnace steelmaking and met coke production in India, China, and Southeast Asia.” New mines such as Arch Resource’s Leer South and the AMCI, POSCO, and Itochu-led Allegheny Met’s Longview mine will play a role in meeting this demand from Asia.

Ironically, U.S. miners can meet Asian needs while their government rejects them as a fuel source for cheap electricity!

The advancement of recent emission-reduction targets for U.S. industry, as well as restrictions on the export capacity of natural gas by the Biden administration, is quite astonishing in light of the ongoing expansions in fossil fuel capacity by various Asian nations.

The quality of life for millions of Americans could very well decline in return for zero environmental benefits as that of Asians improves.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, U.K.

There were fireworks at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Friday as Israel tried to fight back against a Palestinian bid to become a full UN member.

The assembly adopted a new resolution which puts the ‘State of Palestine’ on the pathway to future full membership in a vote of 143 to 9, with the US and Israel on the ‘no’ side. The resolution recognizes Palestine as “qualified to join” and the resolution text was described as essentially a global survey on the open question of full membership. 

The move formally recommends to the UN Security Council that it “reconsider the matter favorably.” Since 2012 Palestine has been a non-member observer state. But now the General Assembly “determines that the State of Palestine…should therefore be admitted to membership” and it “recommends that the Security Council reconsider the matter favorably,” according to the resolution text.

A few extra procedural rights were also granted by Friday’s vote: “The General Assembly resolution adopted on Friday does give the Palestinians some additional rights and privileges from September 2024 — like a seat among the UN members in the assembly hall — but they will not be granted a vote in the body,” Times of Israel writes.

Israel is of course fuming, and the below spectacle played out before the UN General Assembly, complete with an interesting prop…

Watch: Israeli ambassador to the UN @giladerdan1 used a paper shredder to shred the UN charter on the podium of the UN general assembly ahead of a vote that will give new privileges to the Palestinians at the UN pic.twitter.com/mWQ85c8uwK

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 10, 2024

Foreign Minister Israel Katz also chimed in, describing the upgrade in status of Palestinians in the UN a “prize for Hamas” in a statement released by his office.

“The absurd decision taken today at the UN General Assembly highlights the structural bias of the UN and the reasons why, under the leadership of UN Secretary-General [Antonio] Guterres, it has turned itself into an irrelevant institution,” Katz said.

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield agreed that it was unnecessary and does nothing to advance peace:

“Since the attacks of October 7, President Biden has been clear that sustainable peace in the region can only be achieved through a two-state solution, with Israel’s security guaranteed, where Israelis and Palestinians can one day live side by side with equal measures of freedom and dignity. It remains the US view that unilateral measures at the UN and on the ground will not advance this goal. The General Assembly resolution being debated today is no exception and so the United States will be voting “no” and encourages other Member States to do the same,” the US mission said.

“Efforts to advance this resolution do not change the reality that the Palestinian Authority does not currently meet the criteria for UN membership under the UN Charter,” she added.

In Europe, Spain and Ireland are the latest countries which are set to bestow recognition on a Palestinian state in a controversial move. The US has very consistently voted no when such efforts are presented at the UN and at the Security Council.

Below is a breakdown of Friday’s UNGA vote…

“Is there a reason you’re going over 100?” is something most people thought they’d never heard anyone asking of a United States Postal Service van.

“I didn’t realize I was going that fast,” the postal worker replied. 

Body camera footage captures a traffic stop in Ohio where a deputy pulled over a U.S. Postal Service mail van for speeding at over 100 mph in a 60 mph zone. The incident occurred just before 2 p.m. on April 21 on Route 20, west of Fremont, according to KKTV.

According to the traffic report, the van had no plates, and the driver appeared to be racing a Ford Mustang.

In the body camera video, the deputy states, “Yeah. I mean, that Mustang took off. He caught my attention, and then you blew by him, and I was pacing you at like 105.”

Court records identified the driver as 28-year-old Drew Brown, who told officials she worked for the Fremont post office.

The KKTV report noted that Brown waived the case, paid a $50 fine for the traffic violation, and received a verbal warning for racing.

The Post Office commented: “Drew Brown is an employee. It is under investigation and as a matter of policy, we are unable to comment further on a specific individual personnel matter.”

You can watch the bodycam footage of the stop here.