Crude, Crypto, & Small-Caps Clubbed Like A Baby Seal As Chaotic Week Looms

As the “busiest week of the summer” looms, VIX remained elevated…

The plunge in Nasdaq/Russell 2000 took a brief respite today as the latter lagged. Nasdaq outperformed today, bouncing off unch early on. The Dow was unch by the close…

Goldman noted buyers on all sides:

• Our floor tilts +5% better to buy with HF demand slightly outpacing LO demand

• HFs are +7% better to buy concentrated in demand for HCare and Tech, followed by Cons Disc, Macro Prods & Utes. Supply is concentrated in Staples and a small sell bias in Fins

• LOs are +3% better to buy but sector dispersion is VERY tight and in a +/-$60mm range with Macro Prods, HCare, Comm Svcs & Energy to buy vs. Fins, Cons Disc, Indust & Utes for sale. Tech flows are dead paired

…but in context, it’s a drop in the ocean…

Source: Bloomberg

…and it mostly appears the short-squeeze ammo ran out on Small Caps…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were vewy vewy quiet today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -3bps, 2Y unch)…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations rotated from 2024 to 2025 but overall were quiet…

Source: Bloomberg

But it was away from stocks and bonds where today saw some real action…

The dollar spiked back above its 50DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar’s gain was gold’s loss…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices also tumbled to near two-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clobbered as the Biden admin decided to transfer $2BN of BTC from its SIlk Road stockpile. For context, that knocked BTC from $70k to $66500 (basically the lows from the weekend’s Trump address reaction)….

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, ETH outperformed BTC today (albeit roundtripping its own gains)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the market is nervous about this week…

Source: Bloomberg

“over-hedged”?