Month: July 2024

Early Monday, Ukraine succeeded in its first successful drone attack on a major Russian refinery since mid-May. Dozens of drones were launched from Ukraine with the objective of crippling Russia’s energy infrastructure. 

Bloomberg reports Rosneft PJSC’s major Tuapse refinery in southern Russia was damaged in a drone attack overnight, which sparked a fire, Russian officials said. 

“Infrastructure of the oil refinery in Tuapse was damaged as a result of falling drone debris,” Russian authorities wrote in a Telegram statement, adding the fire has since been contained.

Some of the clearest video so far of this conflict shows one of the Ukrainian drones striking the Tuapse refinery. 

Ukrainian drones striking the Russian oil refinery in Tuapse in the Krasnodar region 2-3 hours ago

The oil refinery is on firepic.twitter.com/GbV0Tk00Qh

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 22, 2024

In a separate Telegram statement, the Russian Defense Ministry said 75 Ukrainian drones were intercepted. At least eight of those drones were shot down near the refinery. 

Ukraine has spent much of this year focusing on launching attacks on Russia’s energy complex (an attempt to paralyze Moscow’s war financing). The Tuapse refinery is Russia’s largest on the Black Sea, with an annual refining capacity of 12 million metric tons (or averaging 240,000 barrels per day). It supplies naphtha, fuel oil, vacuum gas oil, and high-sulfur diesel to mainly China, Turkey, Malaysia, and Singapore. 

“This is the first successful Ukrainian attack on a major Russian refinery since mid-May, and it comes just as Russia’s oil-processing industry is on track to raise its runs to a six-month high to meet growing domestic fuel demand,” Bloomberg noted. The last major attack on Tuapse was in mid-May. We penned a note covering the incident titled “Desperate Ukraine Launches Massive Kamikaze Drone Attack Against Russian Black Sea Coast, Sparking Fire At Major Refinery.” 

Despite Ukraine’s targeting of Russian energy infrastructure to slow crude product exports, energy analysts are still forecasting growth for Russia’s oil-processing volumes through the end of August.

Shares of CrowdStrike are lower in premarket trading after several Wall Street analysts revised their ratings and lowered price targets. These actions come as analysts attempt to assess the impact of a global IT outage that crippled millions of computers, grounded flights, disrupted banks, and even delayed the opening of the London Stock Exchange last Friday.

CrowdStrike’s update, which began impacting IT systems globally early Friday, was a memorable day, especially the ‘blue screen of death.’

As many noted on X, Friday’s global IT disruption felt like ‘Y2K’ had happened this time.

SFO feeling like Y2K rn. #Crowdstrike #microsoft #outage pic.twitter.com/q0CgMY326j

— Meagan (@lushzeb) July 19, 2024

Everyone welcome international blue screen day, its basically Y2K but it’s real and it put the world on halt. Thanks, Crowdstrike. pic.twitter.com/BpOBY83LYR

— Mazzranache (@TrickyKetchup) July 19, 2024

Now that the cyber security firm’s reputation is at stake, analysts, such as those from Guggenheim Securities, have cut their rating on the stock from ‘Buy’ to ‘Neutral’ because the incident will jeopardize current deals in the company’s pipeline as customers contemplate using threat protection software from rivals.  

Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci told clients that his downgrade reflects “likely resistance to new deals in the near-term, as a result of anticipated fallout from the apparent quality assurance issue that caused a massive disruption of IT systems across the globe.” 

“The company’s response to the issue it caused was impressive, but nevertheless, it caused significant disruption to businesses (and people) across the world,” DiFucci said. 

Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens slashed his price target on Crowdstrike from $400 to $310. He maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on the cybersecurity firm because of the difficulty surrounding the ability in the near term to quantify last week’s software update fiasco. 

“We expect the incident to hurt CrowdStrike order closures in fiscal 2Q25, and the company could see major reputational damage to its category-leading position in enterprise security, hurting its win rates against Palo Alto Networks, Wiz and SentinelOne,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh wrote in a note. 

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said the incident was “clearly a major black eye for CrowdStrike,” adding the shares will likely remain under pressure and “create opportunity for some competitive displacements.”

The Information reported over the weekend that a chief information security officer at a major Fortune 100 company and a person who advises Fortune 100 companies on cybersecurity said several large companies are considering rival antivirus software to CrowdStrike after last week’s incident. This comes as Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X that his company “deleted CrowdStrike from all our systems.”

We just deleted Crowdstrike from all our systems, so no rollouts at all

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 19, 2024

Goldman’s Gabriela Borges told clients in a note this morning that a deal slowdown could be possible for the company in the weeks ahead but maintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a $400 price target. 

“We expect to see some deal cycle elongation between July 19 and July 31 (the end of CrowdStrike’s 2QFY), which will likely impact close rates as customers pause to remediate any issues and reinforce their existing architectures, as well as better understand what went wrong with the CrowdStrike upgrade. This may also impact the close of the quarter for other security vendors as customers push out adding new vendors to their ecosystem or expanding their contracts. However, our recent conversations reaffirm our view that there will likely be minimal share shifts in endpoint post this event,” Borges said. 

With that understanding, she continued:

“We maintain our 12-month price target at $400 based on 55x Q5-Q8 FCF. Key risks include enterprise TAM saturation, competition from Microsoft, Palo Alto and SentinelOne, and a slowdown in endpoint demand environment.” 

Even with some pessimism growing, Wall Street still heavily favors CrowdStrike, with 82.4% or 42 analysts who cover it having a ‘Buy’ rating, according to Bloomberg data. About 4% of the analysts or 2 have ‘Sell’ ratings, with 13.7% or seven analysts with ‘Neutral’ ratings.

Shares are down 4% in premarket trading, following an 11% plunge on Friday.

Who will dare to catch the falling knife?

Global markets are relatively muted after a second consecutive historic weekend for US politics, one where Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and (reluctantly) endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. As of 7:45am, S&P futures are up 0.5%, led by tech with small caps also positive but lagging as the rotation takes a break; Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.9%, reversing some of last week’s painful 4% slump. European stocks rose more than 1%, snapping a five-day losing streak and their worst week this year as the Trump Trade looks a bit shaky this morning (his odds on Predictit are down from 70% to 60% in the past week): the dollar is sliding slightly, havens like the Swiss franc and Treasuries edge higher as the yield curve twists flatter. Commodities are mixed with Ags higher and Energy/Metals lower. The biggest news this weekend is Biden dropping out of the Presidential race and VP Harris is now the presumptive nominee, though others may enter the race. As JPM’s Market Intel desk writes this morning, we have seen “some unwinds of the Trump Trade, it is possible that unwinds further as the market looks to Trump with a split Congress.” Elsewhere, it is a light macro day as we enter the second busiest week of earnings season with ~20% of the SPX reporting.

In premarket trading, Mag7 and Semis are leading with small caps lagging. Nvidia shares rise 1.6% premarket amid reports the company is working on a version of its new flagship AI chips for the China market that will be compatible with current US export controls. CrowdStrike falls 4% as Guggenheim cut its rating to neutral after a faulty software update from the cybersecurity firm affected 8.5 million devices that rely on Microsoft’s Windows operating system. Bank of America dropped 1.1% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold about 34 million shares in the lender for $1.48 billion, according to a public filing. Here are some other notable movers:

• 10X Genomics (TXG) climbs 4% after Jefferies raised its rating to buy on conviction of a recovery in the firm’s single-cell sequencing business.
• Globe Life (GL) gains 1% after saying its audit committee completed its review of allegations raised by short sellers Fuzzy Panda Research and Viceroy Research, and determined there is no merit to the short sellers’ various allegations regarding financial accounting, reporting and disclosure.
• Tellurian (TELL) soars 64% after Woodside Energy Group agreed to buy the US liquefied natural gas project developer for about $900 million.
• ON Semiconductor (ON) gains 2% after the company announced a multi-year pact with Volkswagen Group.
• Verizon Communications (VZ) slips 3% after posting 2Q results.

After this week’s shocking news of Biden’s unexpected reversal and decision to drop out of the race (following relentless pressure from the “Democratic” party, a full account of what happened can be found here), Democrats now face the task of uniting around a new nominee just weeks before their convention, and must rapidly make up ground against Donald Trump who remains an odds-on favorite to win the presidency. Investors have been wagering on Trump’s return to the White House for weeks, trimming holdings of long-term US bonds and buying Bitcoin, among other things. Now, they’re considering whether the “Trump Trade” is still on. The uncertainty may translate into volatility for markets, though for now, much attention is on earnings and the outlook for monetary policy.

“We are more focused on the cadence of the business cycle than on the outcome of the election,” said Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson. “While markets have been digesting the rising odds of a Trump win, cyclical upside from here will likely be dependent on growth” the bearish MS strategist added, noting that the rotation into small caps is almost over (which likely means it is only just starting).

Investors have their hands full dealing with major earnings this week. Tesla and Alphabet will be the first of the “Magnificent Seven” to report on Tuesday. Analysts will likely press Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle giant on the progress of its plans for robotaxis. And investors will delve into the details of Google’s parent revenue boost from artificial intelligence.

“It’s a good reporting season so far, but you have to wonder what are the catalysts for the market to keep on rising further?” said Andrew Pease, global head of investment strategy at Russell Investments Ltd. “A lot of the hope is that we get this rotation away from the Mag Seven to the S&P 493 and the equal-weighted index starts to catch up with the cap-weighted. Asymmetry is still the watchword right now.”

European stocks surge as they look to snap a five-day losing streak. Technology, construction and consumer product shares are leading gains. Strategists at Morgan Stanley said companies in Europe have made a positive start to the second-quarter reporting season, with 29% beating profit expectations. Ryanair failed to boost that track record Monday, however, falling as much as 16% after the Irish budget carrier cut its outlook for ticket prices in the crucial summer travel period and predicting “materially lower” fares. Rivals EasyJet Plc and IAG SA also fell. Here are the top European movers:

• Nordea Bank shares rise as much as 1.9% after the Nordic lender was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Rentokil shares gain as much as 15% after the Sunday Times reported that Philip Jansen, the former chief executive officer of BT, is in talks with private equity firms about acquiring the pest controller.
• Finecobank shares jump as much as 7.4% following reported interest from Zurich Insurance Group, with likely support of PE funds.
• Barry Callebaut shares climb as much as 5.1% after Citi upgrades to buy and opens a 90-day positive catalyst watch, saying the Swiss chocolate producer offers a “potential valuation anomaly.”
• Belimo shares rise as much as 12% after the Swiss manufacturer of heating, ventilation and air conditioning equipment lifted its guidance for the year following a strong first half.
• Entain shares advance as much as 6.1% after the sports betting firm appointed industry veteran Gavin Isaacs as its news chief executive officer.
• Ocado shares rise as much as 7.6% after the online grocer said Kroger had placed an order for a wide range of new automated technologies to roll out in customer fulfillment centers across its network.
• Suess MicroTec shares gains as much as 8.1% after Oddo BHF lifts its rating on the German semiconductor equipment provider to outperform from neutral, saying the valuation now screens as attractive.
• Ceres Power shares jump as much as 18%, the most since January, after the UK fuel cell technology company struck a new manufacturing license deal and raised its guidance for 2024 in its trading update.
• Ryanair shares slide as much as 13%, the most since May 2020, after the low-cost carrier cut its outlook for ticket prices in the key summer travel period.
• Buzzi shares slip as much as 3.8% in Milan trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral, seeing increased earnings risk.
• Invisio shares fall as much as 7.8% after SEB cut its recommendation on the Swedish tactical communications firm to hold from buy, seeing “an attractive case, but stretched valuation.”

In Asia, stocks suffered a third-straight day of losses as they were dragged lower by a weak tech sector amid valuation concerns ahead of key corporate earnings. Chinese bonds were a highlight, gaining after the central bank cut a policy interest rate. The country’s stocks fell, as investors continued to express disappointment at a lack of strong stimulus measures from a recent major Communist Party meeting. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.2% Monday, with TSMC and Samsung among the biggest contributors to the decline. Taiwan’s benchmark index ended 2.7% lower, taking its 4-day plunge to more than 7%, the most since October 2022. Key gauges in Japan and South Korea shed more than 1% each. Tech stocks have suffered sharp losses over the past couple of weeks as the upcoming US election and the Federal Reserve rate cuts injected new uncertainties to the once-mighty sector. Morgan Stanley recommended investors book profits on Asian and emerging-market tech and pivot to consumer staples. Traders were also game-planning the implications of President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is off the lows but still down 0.2%, snapping a two-day advance, as investors weighed what US President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race would mean for markets. The yen was the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.5% against the greenback. The Australian dollar is the weakest, falling 0.3%.

In rates, treasuries are mixed as the short-end underperforms. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries was down as much as 4bps earlier. It’s now little changed 4.23%. Gilts lead a selloff in European bonds.

In commodities, oil prices are little changed, with WTI trading near $80 a barrel. Spot gold is steady around $2,402/oz.

On today’s econ calendar, the lone event is July’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am). This week, traders will be focused on economic activity data in Europe, US second-quarter growth and a Bank of Canada rate decision. Fed members scheduled to speak before the next FOMC meeting begins July 30 — a period during which a self-imposed quiet period is customary — include only Governor Bowman and Dallas Fed President Logan on July 24, both at an event on Texas community partnerships

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,573.75
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 514.14
• MXAP down 0.7% to 182.05
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 565.46
• Nikkei down 1.2% to 39,599.00
• Topix down 1.2% to 2,827.53
• Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 17,635.88
• Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,964.22
• Sensex little changed at 80,552.59
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,931.74
• Kospi down 1.1% to 2,763.51
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47%
• Euro little changed at $1.0892
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $82.93/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,403.36
• US Dollar Index down 0.16% to 104.23

Top Overnight news

• Joe Biden announced in a tweet that he is stepping aside as a candidate and will focus on fulfilling his duties for the remainder of his term, while in a subsequent tweet he endorsed Vice President Harris and will speak to the nation later this week.
• Kamala Harris said she is honoured to have the President’s endorsement and she intends to earn and win the nomination, while she added that she will do everything in her power to unite the Democratic Party and unite the nation to defeat Donald Trump. Super PAC Priorities USA and liberal super PAC Unite the Country said they will support Kamala Harris as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, while Bill and Hillary Clinton announced their endorsement of Harris. It was separately reported by CBS News that California Governor Newsom and Michigan Governor Whitmer do not plan to challenge Harris and Newsom later endorsed Harris for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
• DNCChair Harrison said the American people will hear from the Democratic Party on the next steps and the path forward for the nomination process.
• Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he thinks that Kamala Harris will be easier to defeat than President Biden in the November election, according to a CNN reporter via X.
• China surprised markets by cutting major short and long-term interest rates on Monday, its first such broad move since August last year, signaling intent to boost growth in the world’s second-largest economy just days after a Communist Party leadership meeting. PBOC said it would cut the seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.7% from 1.8%, and would also improve the mechanism of open market operations. That is the first cut to the rate since August 2023. Minutes later, China cut benchmark lending rates by the same margin at the monthly fixing. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered to 3.35% from 3.45% previously, while the five-year LPR was reduced to 3.85% from 3.95%. RTRS
• National Sec Advisor Sullivan warned to expect more sanctions over China’s aid to Russia (this is consistent with the stern warning contained in the recent NATO communique about Chinese assistance to Putin). SCMP
• Nvidia is working on a version of its new flagship AI chips for the China market that would be compatible with current U.S. export controls. RTRS
• President Biden exited the 2024 presidential race yesterday and endorsed VP Kamala Harris. Harris’ prediction market-implied odds of winning the Democratic nomination stood at 80% following the news. Democrats’ odds of winning the White House ticked up slightly, while House and Senate control odds were little changed. The implied odds of a Republican sweep edged down to around 41% but this remains the most likely outcome by a significant margin. The deadline for Democrats to nominate their candidate is at their convention August 19-22. However, the party has been considering a virtual nomination in August ahead of the convention and this remains a possibility. GIR
• Mysterious buyers with suspected links to Russia have begun amassing dozens of vessels capable of carrying liquefied natural gas, in moves that suggest Moscow is expanding its “dark fleet” of energy tankers. Shipping industry insiders say a clutch of previously unknown companies, largely registered in the United Arab Emirates, have rapidly acquired LNG vessels over the past year, driving up market prices, especially for the oldest ships. FT
• The number of UK companies in “significant financial distress” rose sharply in the second quarter, with leisure and tourism under particular pressure due to weak consumer demand. According to Begbies Traynor’s Red Flag report, which tracks the health of businesses, 601,950 companies are facing significant financial distress, up 8.5 per cent on the previous quarter and 37 per cent higher than the same period last year. FT
• The Secret Service denied requests for more security at Trump events in the two years leading up to his assassination attempt, the WaPo reported. Director Kimberly Cheatle faces hostile lawmakers at a House panel hearing today. BBG
• Luxury brands are starting to permanently trim prices in a bid to rejuvenate sales following a softening in demand from “aspirational shoppers”. WSJ   
• Warner Bros faces a Monday deadline to submit a bid to the NBA as the company is at risk of being squeezed out of its only major foothold in sports. FT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly began the week on the back foot after last Friday’s selling pressure on Wall St and despite China’s surprise cuts, while markets also reflected on President Biden’s decision to bow out of the election race. ASX 200 was led lower by the commodity-related sectors with energy the worst hit after oil prices tumbled on Friday, while miners also suffered including South32 with its shares down by a double-digit percentage following its output update where it also flagged an  impairment charge of USD 554mln for its Worsley Alumina operations. Nikkei 225 extended on its recent declines after gapping beneath the key 40,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed in which the former bucked the trend owing to the resilience in local tech-related stocks, while the mainland was pressured after President Xi noted China’s development entered a period of coexistence of strategic opportunities, risks and challenges, as well as increasing uncertainties and unpredictable factors. Furthermore, the PBoC’s surprise announcement to cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by 10bps, which Chinese banks followed through with similar cuts to the benchmark LPRs, failed to spur risk appetite as some viewed the cut to short-term funding rates as underwhelming and not the big measures needed to revive the economy and China’s slowing property industry.

Top Asian News

• China will change the release time of the monthly LPR fixing to 09:00 local time (02:00BST/21:00EDT) from 09:15 local time (02:15BST/21:15EDT) on the 20th of each month.
• PBoC announced a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.70% from 1.80% and will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment to better support the real economy, while it is to lower collateral requirements for the Medium-term Lending Facility Loans from July with the move meant to increase the size of tradable bonds in the market and to alleviate pressure on supply and demand of bonds in the market.
• Chinese President Xi said China’s development has entered a period of coexistence of strategic opportunities, risks and challenges, increasing uncertainties and unpredictable factors, while he added that various black swan and grey rhinoceros events may occur at any time, according to state media.
• China’s reform plan will push the collection stage of the consumption tax back and delegate it to local governments steadily, while it will study merging urban maintenance, construction tax, education surcharge and local education surcharge into a local surcharge and authorise local governments to determine specific applicable tax rates within a certain range. China will improve the coordination of investment and financing in the capital market, prevent risks, strengthen supervision and promote the market’s healthy and stable development. Furthermore, China will create a market-oriented, law-based and internationalised first-class business environment, while it will protect the rights and interests of foreign investment in accordance with the law.
• Chinese Finance Ministry said will extend tariff exemptions for imports of some US products until Feb 28th 2025
• Indian FY25 GDP growth seen between 6.5-7%, according to Reuters sources citing Indian Economic survey.

European equities, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) are entirely in the green, shrugging off a mostly weaker APAC session overnight. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Tech takes the top spot, whilst Travel & Leisure lags, following poor Ryanair (-12%) earnings. US equity futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.5%, RTY +0.2) are modestly firmer to various degrees, with slight outperformance in the NQ, as traders digest news that US President Biden is dropping out of the election race.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves said she will consider inflation-busting pay rises for almost 2mln public sector workers this month to avert crippling strikes, according to Reuters.
• UK Treasury ministers are reportedly softening up public opinion for a tough autumn Budget and potential tax increases, while Chancellor Reeves said she wanted to “level” with the public about the fiscal “mess”, according to FT.
• ECB’s Makhlouf said there is no need to rush to make decisions and that rapid interest-rate action from the central bank is not required, according to an interview with the Irish Examiner.
• ECB’s Kazimir said doors remain open to additional easing should the environment warrant it; market bet on two more cuts by year-end is not entirely misplaced but a given; no need to rush decisions, data will set stage for Sept decision.

FX

• USD is steady vs. peers with DXY tucked within Friday’s 104.13-42 range. Little follow-through in FX markets from US President Biden’s decision to drop out of the election race as it remains unclear if Harris (yet to be officially nominated) would be able to change the electoral calculus.
• EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD but EUR/USD is unable to gain a footing above 1.09. EZ newsflow remains light with ECB officials continuing to echo caution on the rate-cutting cycle.
• GBP is flat vs. peers as speculation over potential tax hikes/additional borrowing has little follow-through. For now, Cable remains tucked within Friday’s 1.2901-1.2951 range.
• JPY strengthened in early European trade after the pair tripped through 157.00 and Friday’s low @ 156.96 in quiet newsflow before basing out at 156.29.
• Yuan is a touch softer vs. the USD following stimulus efforts by Chinese officials. Desks remain of the view that measures are too piecemeal to have a materially stimulative impact. USD/CNH now eyeing 7.30; last breached 4th July.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1335 vs exp. 7.2624 (prev. 7.1315)

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat and saw a muted reaction seen in fixed income markets to Biden dropping out of the Presidential race. It is unclear if Harris is any more likely to beat Trump than Biden was. Plus, desks still fancy Republicans to control both houses. Sep’24 UST contract sits within Friday’s 110.25-111.07 range.
• Contained price action within European fixed income markets as the ECB heads for its summer break. Sep’24 Bund has breached 132.00 and Friday’s low (131.93) to the downside.
• Gilts are lower by only a handful of ticks ahead of this week’s PMI before the BoE next week. UK 10yr is now below Friday’s trough after slipping below the 98.00 level. Next target is the 12th July low at 97.81.

Commodities

• Modestly firmer intraday but more-so a consolidation following the slump on Friday. Overnight, China conducted surprise rate cuts overnight to the RRR, LPR, and SLF in a bid to inject stimulus, although markets are seemingly overlooking these efforts. Brent Sept sits in the middle of a USD 82.75-83.22/bbl parameter.
• Mixed trade arcross precious metals with the complex awaiting the next catalyst. Spot gold resides in a narrow range on either side of USD 2,400/oz.
• Mixed trade across base metals with little follow-through seen on the surprise Chinese rate cuts, with some participants suggesting the announcements were ultimately underwhelming.
• Dubai set official crude differential to DME Oman for October at USD 0.10/bbl premium.

Geopolitics

• Israeli military called on Gazans to clear out of eastern parts of the Khan Younis ahead of a ‘forceful’ operation which comes after ‘significant terrorist activity and rocket fire’.
• Israel conducted a strike on Yemen’s Hodeidah on Saturday which killed six people and injured 80, while it was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they fired missiles at Israel’s Eilat.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu will meet with US President Biden on Tuesday, while Netanyahu said the port that Israel conducted a strike on was an entry port for weapons from Iran and the port attack reminds enemies that there is no place that Israel cannot reach. Israeli PM Netanyahu also said Israel will send a delegation to hostage deal talks on Thursday.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky called for long-range weapons after drone attacks on Kyiv. In relevant news, Russia’s Defence Ministry announced their forces captured two settlements in Ukraine.
• Philippine Foreign Ministry said China and the Philippines reached an understanding on a provisional arrangement for resupply missions in the disputed South China Sea shoal.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Planes couldn’t take off, trains struggled to run, TV shows got pulled off the air, traders couldn’t trade, payments got delayed, hospitals had to cancel operations… oh and the EMR couldn’t get published on time. Friday was a fascinating day of learning how reliant we all are on tech companies. Although the DB IT infrastructure survived the outage exceptionally well, DB Research use a third-party provider to send out research and this was completely down for much of Friday. We ended up using a manual back up to send the EMR out late, but we couldn’t include links. Apologies for the late running. As we couldn’t include links, we’ll keep our global markets survey open until 8am (London time) this morning. So all last responses very welcome. It includes questions on the US election, US tech versus the rest of the US equity market, and a few other relevant questions that include several we now have a long-term series for. It should only take a couple of minutes and feel free to skip any questions you want.

One question that we don’t need to ask anymore is whether you think Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party nominee for President in November. On Friday speculation was rife that he would stand down as early as the weekend but bullish remarks by Biden in the early part of the weekend put some doubts to that speculation. However by Sunday afternoon US time Mr Biden had withdrawn and endorsed VC Kamala Harris. It seems difficult to see a path for someone to pip her to the nomination but we are in uncharted territory so you couldn’t completely rule it out. The Democratic convention starts on August 19th so if someone was going to challenge they’d need to be building up momentum well ahead of that. Unless there was a groundswell of support for that candidate it seems a very high hurdle to supplant Harris. The Clintons have endorsed Harris even if Obama hasn’t, although his practise is not to do so until a nomination has been secured. Overnight, potential rivals Newsom and Buttigieg have also thrown their support behind Harris. In terms of the polls, the match-up between Trump and Harris has been slightly narrower than with Biden in recent times with Trump 1.9pp ahead at the national level instead of 3pp according to Real Clear Politics poll aggregates. However with the attention now likely to be firmly on Harris this could move notably in either direction over the next few days and weeks. Perhaps for now it slightly reduces the impetus for Trump trades but there’s a long way to go.

It’s hard to say markets have reacted much to the news so far. 10yr US Treasury yields are -1.7bps lower which may reflect a little less risk of even more fiscal spending. The dollar is around a tenth of a percent lower but the Peso was initially +0.6% higher against the dollar but has pared that back to around a tenth of a percent gain. S&P 500 (+0.21%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.32%) futures are higher but well within normal trading ranges.

The rest of Asia is marching to its own beat with a China rate cut doing as much to unsettle as improve sentiment. Across the region, the KOSPI (-1.35%) is the biggest underperformer closely followed by the Nikkei (-1.17%) with the CSI (- 0.65%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.69%) also lower. The Hang Seng (+0.67%) is bucking the regional trend though.

Coming back to China, the PBOC unexpectedly trimmed the seven-day reverse repo rate for the first time in almost a year, lowering it by 10 bps to 1.7% to reinvigorate the economy. Chinese banks have lowered one and five-year loan prime rates by 10bps each to 3.35% and 3.85%, bringing the rates further into record-low territory. Following the decision, yields on 10yr Chinese government bonds fell around -2.0bps.

As for this week, most roads point to Friday’s US core PCE deflator. En route to this, the main other highlights are US Q2 GDP on Thursday, the global flash PMIs and the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday, alongside a big week for earnings that includes Alphabet, Tesla and LVMH (all tomorrow). Don’t expect to hear from Fed officials as they are on their blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC.

With the core PCE deflator, our economists expect a 0.14% MoM reading given the CPI and PPI components that feed into it. There could be some downward revisions to prior months that could edge this month up nearer to 0.2% so one to watch as a whole rather than the June number alone. The base case at DB is that the YoY rate will dip to 2.5% which is below the Fed’s YE ’24 prediction of 2.8% at their June FOMC. However our econ team point out that base effects from low H2 prints last year will make further progress much more challenging. Nevertheless the recent run, especially in rents, suggest that the Fed will be having increasing confidence that inflation is moving back closer to 2%. For Q2 US GDP, our economists expect 2.1% annualised growth (consensus 1.9%) although with durable goods out at the same time there might be a bit more uncertainty than usual.

Recapping last week, it was an incredibly eventful time for markets, with various ups and downs through the week. It began fairly positively, with the S&P 500 hitting new records on both Monday and Tuesday. But on Wednesday, the rally came to an abrupt halt, mainly driven by chipmakers at first, but spreading among equities more broadly. That meant the S&P 500 fell -1.97% last week (-0.71% Friday) in its worst weekly performance since April. But under the surface there was also a rotation taking place away from mega-caps towards small-cap stocks, as the Magnificent 7 was down -4.78% last week (-1.24% Friday), even as the Russell 2000 was up +1.68% (-0.63% Friday).

That volatility was clear in several ways. For instance, the VIX index was up +4.06pts to 16.52pts, marking its biggest weekly increase since March 2023 during the week of SVB’s collapse. In other regions the losses were even bigger, and Europe’s STOXX 600 fell every day last week to close -2.68% lower (-0.77% Friday), in its worst weekly performance since October. And with the massive IT outage on Friday, Crowdstrike ended the week down -17.87% (-11.10% Friday), marking its worst daily and weekly performance since November 2022.

For sovereign bonds however, there was a bit more divergence on either side of the Atlantic. In the US, 10yr yields ended the week up +5.6bps (+3.7bps Friday) at 4.24%. But yields fell back in Europe after the ECB’s decision, which had several dovish elements and maintained an implicit direction towards further easing, even as they left rates unchanged and hawkish sources emerged in the aftermath of the meeting. Overall, that helped yields on 10yr bunds fall by -2.8bps (+3.6bps Friday) to 2.47%.

Finally, the risk-off tone coupled with concerns over Chinese growth meant that it was a very bad week for commodities across the board. For instance, Brent crude oil fell -2.82% (-2.91% Friday) to close at $82.63/bbl, its lowest in over a month. Copper prices were also down every day last week to a 3-month low, posting their worst weekly performance since July 2022 with a -8.25% decline (-1.10% Friday). Similarly, it was a bad week for precious metals, and even though gold closed at an all-time nominal record earlier in the week of $2469/oz, it ended the week as a whole down -0.44% (-2.26% Friday) at $2401/oz.

By Grant Smith, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

Oil prices may have been confined to a tight range this month, but an array of signals from the physical market suggest the next move could be a break to the upside.

First of all, there are the time-spreads between monthly futures contracts, which have shown a strengthening premium on prompt deliveries over the past six weeks as US driving demand climbs toward its summertime peak. The so-called flat price of crude has lagged behind, pressured by concerns over the global economy, but sooner or later may need to catch up.

The entrenched premium on prompt supplies — known as backwardation — indicates that global oil inventories are depleting at the swift pace anticipated this quarter by forecasters like the International Energy Agency. This is substantiated by a hefty decline in US crude inventories, down by roughly 20 million barrels over the past three weeks.

Cargo trading is adding to the generally bullish picture, with grades in the Mediterranean like Azeri Light climbing substantially, and CPC Blend bid at its highest level in four years. Wildfires in Canada and hurricane season in the Atlantic compound the short-term supply risks. As brokers PVM Oil Associates write today, “the crude bull story is a compelling one.”

Still, there are serious question marks over how much higher any rally could go. Global inventory drawdowns are set to decelerate markedly in the fourth quarter, as China’s economic growth stutters and supplies from across the Americas continues to swell. Forecasters calling for Brent to spike all the way up to $90 a barrel may yet be disappointed.

Authored by Alex O’Donnell via CoinTelegraph.com,

After years of regulatory pushback and countless amended registration filings, spot Ether  exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are finally hitting the market. 

For the first time, shares of publicly-traded Ethereum (ETH) ETFs will be listed alongside the likes of Apple Inc (AAPL) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on some of the United States’ most popular brokerage platforms.

The anticipated listings are a defining moment for cryptocurrency markets and an opportunity for millions of US institutional and retail investors. Here’s what you need to know to make the most of it.

When will spot Ether ETFs be available?

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) confirmed July 23 as the launch date for the five ETFs assigned to trade on its platform: 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, VanEck Ethereum ETF, and Franklin Ethereum ETF.

The four other spot ETH ETFs will trade on either Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca. Despite no official announcements yet from those exchanges, they are widely expected to list on July 23 as well.

Where can I buy Ethereum ETF shares?

The short answer: virtually any major brokerage platform. Every spot ETH ETF set to list in the last week of July has already obtained regulatory sign-off to trade on at least one major U.S. exchange — specifically either the Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca or Cboe BZX.

Everyday investors don’t trade directly on those exchanges. Instead, they rely on brokerage platforms — household names such as Fidelity, E*TRADE, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, and TD Ameritrade — as intermediaries.

Once ETH ETF shares are listed on public exchanges, expect all of the big name brokerages, and others, to be able to facilitate trades.

What are my options and how do I know which is best?

Nine spot Ether ETFs are set to begin trading. In terms of underlying mechanics, the funds are virtually identical. Every ETF is sponsored by a reputable fund manager, holds spot ETH with a qualified custodian, and relies on a core group of professional market-makers to create and redeem shares. They also all benefit from the same standard investor protections, including insurance against brokerage failures and cybersecurity risks.

For most investors, the deciding factor boils down to fees. For eight of the nine ETFs, management fees range from 0.15% to 0.25%. The one big exception is Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which started trading under a different fund structure in 2017 and still charges management fees of 2.5%.

Comparison of the first nine spot Ethereum ETFs.

Most — but not all — of the Ethereum ETFs are temporarily waiving or discounting fees in a bid to woo investors. Greyscale Ethereum Trust is again among the big outliers here, along with Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF (QETH).

Ironically, the clear frontrunner in the fee race is also a Grayscale product. The Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) — a newer fund created specifically to list as an ETF — has management fees of only 0.15%. Those fees are waived entirely for the first six months after listing, or until the fund hits $2 billion in assets under management (AUM).

Another compelling choice is Franklin Templeton’s Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET). At 0.19%, its management fees are the second lowest of the bunch, and they are fully waived through January 2025 or until the fund clears $10 billion in AUM.

Will spot Ether ETFs offer staking?

The short answer here is “No.” The longer answer: “Maybe, but not anytime soon.”

As a refresher, staking involves depositing ETH to a validator node on Ethereum’s Beacon Chain. Staked ETH earns a cut of network fees and other rewards but also risks “slashing” — or forfeiting staked collateral — if the validator misbehaves or fails.

Staking is attractive because it significantly boosts returns. Annual rewards rates stand at around 3.7% as of July 19, according to StakingRewards.com.

Earlier this year, several issuers — including Fidelity, BlackRock and Franklin Templeton — sought regulatory signoff to add staking to spot ETH ETFs. The SEC denied those requests.

The issue boils down to liquidity, according to several people involved in the talks who spoke to Cointelegraph on the condition of anonymity. Staked ETH usually takes days to withdraw from Beacon chain. That’s a problem for issuers, who are required to promptly redeem ETF shares for underlying fund assets on request.

Issuers are still exploring ways to add staking to the current crop of spot ETH ETFs — possibly by maintaining a “buffer” of liquid spot Ether — but a workable plan is months away at best, the people told Cointelegraph. For now, staking is off the table for Ether ETFs.

Ether could hit a new all-time high after next week’s ETH ETF launch

Ether’s price could be on track to a new all-time high after the launch of the first United States spot Ether ETFs, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise.

Hougan cited three main reasons for Ether reaching a new all-time high, including ETH’s inflation rate, the fact that Ether stakers aren’t selling like Bitcoin miners and that 28% of Ether supply is already out of the market.

In a July 16 blog post, Hougan wrote:

“Ethereum’s inflation rate over the past year is exactly 0% […] Significant new demand meets 0% new supply? I like that math. And if activity on Ethereum ticks up, so does the amount of ETH being consumed. That’s another lever of organic demand working in investors’ favor.”

Other factors also point to an incoming rally, including the number of Ether withdrawals from centralized exchanges, according to crypto analyst Leon Waidmann.

The analyst wrote in a July 19 X post:

“$126M worth of ETH was withdrawn from exchanges this week, signaling massive accumulation ahead of the ETF launch. Next big ETH rally incoming.”

ETH: Balance on exchanges (total). Source: Leon Waidmann

$3,500 remains formidable resistance

However, Ether futures suggest little confidence in the chance of Ether breaking above the $4,000 mark in the short term, as the $3,500 mark remains a significant resistance zone.

Ether’s relative strength index (RSI) also suggests that Ether’s price needs to cool down before rallying to a new all-time high. On the daily chart, Ether’s RSI rose to 58, which suggests that the asset is not yet overbought but is trading above its fair value, according to TradingView data.

ETH/USD, RSI, 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI is a popular momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is oversold or overbought based on the magnitude of recent price changes.

Ethereum shakeout could happen first

Ether’s price could first see a sell-the-news event after the initial ETF launch before starting its sustained rally toward new all-time highs.

Hence, the real opportunity to invest in Ether long term could come after the first few weeks of the ETF debut, according to Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet.

Kan told Cointelegraph:

“Similar to how the market reacted when BTC spot ETFs got approved, we expect ETH to jump in price for a short time after its own ETF gets the green light. However, there might be followed by some selling pressure for a week or two afterward, as a result of outflows from instruments like Grayscale’s ETF.”

ETH’s price will be able to climb in a more sustained manner after the initial shakeout, added Kan:

“Once this initial shakeout is over, the price of ETH could start to climb steadily each month, depending on the daily inflows into the new ETH spot ETF.”

Other analysts expect the Ether ETF to have wider ramifications on the altcoin market. For instance, popular crypto trader Mikybull expects the ETFs to catalyze the next altcoin bull market cycle.

The trader wrote in a July 19 X post:

“ETH ETFs will be the major catalyst for a massive rally sparking a huge Alts season in this cycle.”

ETH/USD, 2-month chart. Source: Mikybull

Ether’s price rallied over 11% during the past week, but ETH is still trading 29% below its old all-time high of $4,890 reached in November 2021.

We have previously noted the early indicators of the sun’s upcoming 11-year solar cycle. Currently, Solar Cycle 25 is at its peak, known as the ‘solar maximum,’ characterized by intense solar activity such as sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections. This results in a significant surge in electromagnetic energy hurtling towards Earth, and now new data shows Washington, DC, is the most vulnerable US city to space weather.

The Royal Astronomical Society reports that researchers at the British Geological Survey (BGS) found that Washington, DC, and Milwaukee are some of the most exposed US cities to space weather. This is particularly problematic during a solar maximum period that will last through 2025 because power grids and ground-based communication devices could be disrupted. 

“We have identified certain regions of the US (Washington DC area and Milwaukee) which are repeatedly appearing as ‘highly connected’ in our network, hence are possibly regions particularly vulnerable to the effects of space weather and may benefit from further monitoring,” said Dr. Lauren Orr of BGS.

Dr. Orr said there were “many reasons” the metro areas might be more at risk of the impact of solar storms, including “electrical conductivity of the ground, the physical construction of the power grid in those areas, or the location of the auroral currents in the sky.”

She added a caveat that further research is needed to reveal more evidence of why these cities are considered ‘supernodes.’ 

Geomagnetically induced currents from powerful solar storms can disrupt the digital and remote work economy.

We’ve outlined this in space weather notes over the years: 

• Digital Economy Disruption Possible As “Terminator Event” Suggests Strongest Sunspot Cycle On Record Imminent
• The Next Big Geomagnetic Storm Poses An Astronomical Risk To Modern Man
•  Solar Storms Can Devastate Entire Civilizations.
• Solar Storms Present Danger Of Blackouts For Major East Coast Cities

In early May, one of the most powerful solar storms in years blasted Earth. Fortunately, the digital economy held up, and Starlink’s massive satellite constellation also survived. 

• US Power Grid & Communication Networks Survive Extreme Geomagnetic Storm

Last year, we pointed out that the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) is expected to peak sometime in 2025. 

• Solar Cycle 25’s Maximum Might Arrive Earlier And Hit Harder

And just recently revealed new data about the next solar cycle:

• “First Traces” Of Solar Cycle 26 Detected On Sun

Let’s remember this executive order signed by Obama in 2016…

The most powerful solar storm to rock Earth in recorded history, the Carrington Event, occurred in September 1859. It sparked fires in telegraph systems across Europe and North America. 

The biggest threat to Earth is likely not the narrative radical leftist push about climate change. It’s the sun and how one powerful solar storm can take down grids worldwide.

Authored by Austin Alonzo via The Epoch Times,

The Republican Party outraised the Democratic Party in June and entered July with more money in the bank than its rival.

On July 20, committees affiliated with America’s major political parties published financial disclosures covering their June activities.

The Federal Election Commission filings show that the main Republican bodies collectively raised about $99.8 million during the month. The main Democratic committees raised about $71.1 million.

According to the FEC, the Republican National Committee brought in about $66.9 million in June while spending $19.4 million. It began July with about $101.6 million in cash on hand.

It began 2024 with only about $8 million in cash on hand, according to federal records.

The Democratic National Committee, on the other hand, raised about $39.2 million in June. It used about $26.1 million and started July with about $78.3 million in cash on hand.

The Democratic Party outraised the GOP all year until May; and then, the Democrats still held a cash-on-hand advantage.

June marked the third full month with new leadership at the helm of the RNC. RNC chairman Michael Whatley and co-chair Lara Trump took over in March. Since then, they’ve led the committee with a focus on reelecting former President Donald Trump.

In July, the RNC held its Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

The party formally nominated former President Trump as its 2024 presidential candidate at the event.

The DNC is set to host the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from Aug. 19–22.

With Biden’s stepping down from the race, Kamala Harris is expected to receive the nomination, but it is far from a done deal.

In Congress, both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) held more cash on hand at the end of June than their Republican Party rivals.

The congressional committees exist primarily to raise money and donate to the campaigns of candidates running for seats in the House or Senate.

At the end of June, the NRSC held about $48.3 million, and the NRCC held about $70.8 million. The Senatorial Committee collected about $18.5 and disbursed $11.2 million. The Congressional Committee took in about $14.3 million and sent out about $8.2 million.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee closed June with $53.1 million in cash on hand, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ended the month with 87.9 million.

The Senatorial Committee raised $12.1 million during the month and spent $7.3 million. The Congressional Committee earned about $19.7 million in contributions while using about $10.7 million.

In the 118th Congress, Republicans remain the majority party in the House despite some departures.

In the Senate, Republicans hold 49 of the 100 seats, and Democrats have 47, with 4 independents.

Nevertheless, Democrats are considered the majority party because the four independent lawmakers—Sens. Angus King (I-Maine), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va)—caucus with the Democrats.

All 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate seats will be up for election in November.

Between 1990 and 2022, worldwide adult obesity rates more than tripled from 5% to nearly 16% of the global adult population.

In the following infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao maps and rank the countries with the highest adult obesity rates, measured through Body Mass Index (BMI) calculations.

Data is sourced from the World Health Organization, current up to 2022.

Ranked: The 15 Countries With an Obesity Problem

Small island nations in the Pacific have some of the highest obesity rates in the world. They also see high rates of cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

A change in diet in the 20th century—relying on imported, processed foods—is generally regarded as the common cause.

Note: Figures rounded. Adult obesity measured by a body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or higher.

Egypt, Qatar, and the United States are the only countries with a population greater than 1 million on this list.

Poor food habits are once again a factor, with some cultural differences. In Egypt, high food inflation has pushed residents to low-cost high-calorie meals. To combat food insecurity, the government subsidizes bread, wheat flour, sugar and cooking oil, many of which are the ingredients linked to weight gain.

In Qatar, a country with one of the highest per capita GDPs in the world, a genetic predisposition towards obesity and sedentary lifestyles worsen the impact of rich diets.

And in the U.S., bigger portions are one of the many reasons cited for rampant adult and child obesity. For example, Americans ate 20% more calories in the year 2000 than they did in 1983. They consume 195 lbs of meat annually compared to 138 lbs in 1953. And their grain intake has increased 45% since 1970.

It’s worth noting however that this dataset is based on BMI values, which do not fully account for body types with larger bone and muscle mass.

Authored by Almaz Kumenov via Eurasianet.org

• Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan are collaborating to create a green energy export infrastructure, prioritizing wind energy and aiming for a significant increase in renewable energy production.

• Kazakhstan’s ambitious green energy targets include raising renewable energy’s share of power generation to 15% by 2030 and 50% by 2050.

• Kazakhstan is considering the construction of a nuclear power plant, with public opinion divided on the issue and concerns about environmental impact and potential involvement of Russian entities in the project.

Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan to develop electricity export capacity, even as Astana faces challenges in securing the power needed to fuel domestic economic growth.

The Kazakh Ministry of Energy has published for public comment a draft agreement on its strategic green-energy partnership with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. The agreement would put some flesh on the bones of a memorandum of intent the three countries signed in May.

“Emphasizing the importance of green and clean energy in global action to combat climate change, the Parties encourage mutual cooperation in the areas of renewable energy, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and green ammonia to improve energy system security and the stability of supply,” the draft states.

The draft goes on to commit Kazakhstan to “jointly implement new energy infrastructure initiatives that will contribute to the diversification of energy supplies and transit routes in Europe, Central Asia and the Caspian region.” It also declares an intention to achieve “rapid, deep and sustainable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.” The parties likewise express interest in facilitating “the interconnection of the energy systems of Central Asia and Azerbaijan for the purpose of sustainable export of green energy and broad strategic energy expansion.”

The trilateral initiative’s main market for green energy appears to be the European Union, which has contended with energy shortages and high costs, due to the disruption caused by the Kremlin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine and the resulting imposition of sanctions on Russia

As outlined in the memorandum of intent signed in May, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan seek to lay a high-voltage power transmission line on the Caspian seabed to facilitate Westward-bound electricity exports. Neither July’s draft agreement nor the May memo provide insight into key details, including investment costs, specific infrastructure projects and construction timelines.

Climate and geographic conditions in Kazakhstan, with its vast windswept steppes, create favorable conditions for the development of wind-power plants. According to the Ministry of Energy, the energy potential of wind energy in the country is at least 920 billion kWh per year.

Kazakhstan is actively developing its green energy potential. Today, renewable energy sources account for only about 6 percent of total power generation in Kazakhstan, while coal-fired production accounts for about 80 percent. Under an ambitious government plan, however, the green-energy share of power production is set to rise to 15 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050.

If the government keeps to those targets, some experts question where all the power production will come from to meet export ambitions and growing domestic needs. A Russian media outlet cited Kazakh energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov as saying Kazakhstan will face an electricity deficit of about 6 Gigawatts by 2030.

The wild card in Kazakhstan’s power-generation deck is atomic energy. In June, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced an intention to hold a nationwide referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, a country that served as the Kremlin’s main atomic proving ground during the Soviet era and has the environmental scars to prove it.

A nuclear plant could provide for domestic needs, leaving production from wind and hydro sources for export. Despite the legacy of atomic-inflicted harm on Kazakhstan’s environment, polls indicate that slightly more Kazakh citizens support the construction of a nuclear facility than oppose it. But attitudes could shift depending on which entity might be tapped to build a plant. Some local observers believe Rosatom, the Russian state-controlled entity, has an inside track on securing the contract, in the event the Kazakh government proceeds with plant plans.

But given the checkered history of Soviet/Russian nuclear energy, a Russian design may raise the level of popular opposition to plant construction more than would a French-, South Korean- or even Chinese-built facility. No date has yet been set for the referendum.

Authored by Emma Tekstra via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Study Challenges ‘Bad Cholesterol’ Label For LDL

Annual Lab Tests Are a Good Idea

Maybe you already submit to blood tests as part of your annual check-up with your doctor. If you’re generally healthy they may advise everything “looks normal” whether or not you have been complaining of various symptoms.

If you’re managing a chronic condition perhaps your doctor requests more regular testing and monitors your numbers to adjust medication accordingly. Or maybe you’ve been avoiding the doctor and haven’t had any lab work done in a while.

Blood tests are one of the least invasive and cost-effective tests you can get to be proactive about managing your health. Testing centers are typically easy to find and make an appointment with. In fifteen minutes you can be in and out, having had a few vials of blood drawn in a usually pleasant setting, and be on your way. Results are often available online a week or so later.

According to the Cleveland Clinic, “blood tests are an essential tool healthcare providers use to monitor your overall health or diagnose medical conditions.” But you don’t need to be under a doctor’s care to obtain blood tests. Consumer-focused companies like Grassroots Labs or Function Health can put you firmly in the driver’s seat.

Limitations of Normal Ranges

The trick though is in understanding the context of all those numbers and how your results compare to the cited “normal range.” Only then can you begin to glean relevant insights to optimize your health.

For starters, even if you test 100 different biomarkers in your blood, it is barely scratching the surface of what is going on inside your infinitely complex body that is constantly working to keep you in balance and functioning well.

A blood test generally measures a moment in time and may be influenced by what you ate the day before, how much you exercised, if you had an argument with your spouse, or how well you slept the previous night. You are an individual. There is no such thing as a perfect score for any element being tested.

An article published in the journal Heliyon last year discusses the pros and cons of biomarkers which include tests of other bodily fluids and cells such as hair—useful to test for heavy metals—and stool—useful to assess your microbiome—and sound an alert to certain cancers and other conditions. One of the clear disadvantages cited of biomarker monitoring is the difficulty of establishing what is “normal.”

The reference values or normal ranges listed on your test results are typically lab-specific and are based on the test results of a subset of the population studied. The range then covers the results for 95 percent of this sample population who are deemed to be healthy. The lowest 2.5 percent and the highest 2.5 percent are considered outliers, with the rest considered normal.

The lab may adjust its range by demographics such as males/females and age groups, but this vastly oversimplifies all the elements that affect any individual biomarker for a given human.

Typical Tests Your Doctor May Order

The biggest use of blood tests is to assist your doctor in making diagnosis and treatment decisions. The pharmaceutical industry relies on biomarker testing to prove its drug is doing what it claims to do better than a placebo.

Most drugs are evaluated by their effect on a biomarker rather than their impact on actual health. But as long as we understand the context and limitations of the tests, we can use them to our advantage helping to inform our priority interventions.

The most common tests your doctor is likely to order include:

• Metabolic markers—to understand your kidney and liver function, blood sugar level, proteins, and electrolyte balance including your hydration status.
• Complete blood count—looks at your red and white blood cells and platelets which can indicate an infection, anemia, or blood clotting issues.
• Lipids—will include your LDL (low-density lipoprotein) and HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol, and your triglycerides (a type of fat stored in your liver).
• Thyroid function—especially for women, specifically your TSH (thyroid-specific hormone) levels indicating potential hypo- or hyperthyroidism which can affect many aspects of your health including infertility.
• Hemoglobin A1C—especially for those who have a high basic glucose level or who are overweight. It measures the percentage of your blood cells that are saturated with glucose and provides a better measure of your average glucose level over the last 2—3 months.
• PSA (prostate-specific antigen)—men only. Can indicate problems with the prostate, including cancer, but other factors can also affect PSA levels.

Without going into the details of each test and the shortcomings of its quoted normal range, it is important to do your own research and consider additional testing if:

1. You are outside of normal ranges and your doctor is proposing pharmaceutical treatment to address it.
2. You are inside of normal ranges but are suffering from “unexplained” symptoms.

Examples of other blood tests that can provide additional context and guidance are:

• Inflammatory markers—C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, the high-sensitivity version) can be used as a general measure of inflammation and risk for cardiovascular disease and depression. Homocysteine is an amino acid that needs certain B vitamins to break down—elevated levels can indicate impaired ability to detox and make neurotransmitters.
• Thyroid detail—beyond the basic TSH score, more accurate tests can measure additional elements such as free T4, total T3, free T3, and reverse T3 to get a better picture of how your thyroid is performing.
• Full hormone panel—such as the DUTCH testing service, which stands for dried urine test for comprehensive hormones—which tests over 24 hours to get a more accurate picture.
• Cancer detection—such as the Galleri test that has been validated to detect early signals of over 50 types of cancer.
• Pathogen antibodies—including Lyme disease and mold using specialty tests such as those offered by Realtime Laboratories and IGeneX.
• Essential nutrients—like vitamin D, iron/ferritin, B12, folate (B9), magnesium, and omega-3s.

These more advanced tests may not be covered by your insurance plan but are often an excellent investment to better understand your health issues and how to tackle them. This is especially true if the aim is to avoid pharmaceuticals so often designed to address a biomarker rather than improve overall health.

Essential nutrient testing in particular can often provide the missing link to explain mystery symptoms or unusual “scores” in other blood tests.

Understanding Nutrient RDAs

In our modern world of over-scheduling, ultra-processed food, insidious technology, and other toxin exposures, so much of what ails us is due to an underlying nutrient deficiency. There are simply inadequate nutrients going into our body to run all the many complex systems that rely on them.

If we’re taking any pharmaceuticals the risk of deficiencies is higher as many pharmaceuticals are known to leach nutrients out of the body.

It is therefore recommended to include nutrient-level testing in your annual blood work. But make sure you apply a similar level of caution in their interpretation and your response for three main reasons:

1.  The “normal” ranges quoted for nutrient tests are usually far too low given the vast majority of the U.S. population is deficient, and therefore any sample taken to set the ranges. A deficiency in certain nutrients may not immediately present with symptoms so the sample population may be considered healthy subjects but in fact, their nutrient levels are not optimal.

For example, most labs will quote a normal range for vitamin D blood levels of 30–150 nanograms per milliliter (ng/ml). A well-informed doctor may push you to be over 50 ng/ml and supplement up to that level. However, research now suggests over 75 ng/ml is optimal.

2. It is important to understand that blood levels are not always a good indication of absorption or availability to your cells. Magnesium for example is stored in your bones and tissues with only a small amount circulating in the blood. Absorption of one nutrient can also affect another, with low magnesium levels potentially responsible for low potassium or calcium levels as well, emphasizing the need to look at all test results holistically.

3. Another factor to understand when responding to nutrient test results is the recommended daily allowance (RDA) suggestions—more often now quoted in the United States as daily value (DV) requirements for individual nutrients.

It’s worth noting a bit of the history about how RDAs were developed decades ago before we understood the interaction of different nutrients and how factors like the health of our microbiome, age, weight, and lifestyle greatly affect our personal nutrient needs.

The focus was to prevent the occurrence of specific diseases like scurvy, beri beri, pellagra, and rickets (respectively long-term deficiencies in vitamin C, B1, B3 (niacin), and vitamin D for calcium absorption). They weren’t (and still aren’t) focused on optimal health.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration took over the ownership of DV levels to help consumers determine the level of various nutrients in a standard serving of food compared to their approximate requirement for it. You are likely to find the percentage of DV now quoted on supplement bottles. However, your personal needs may be far higher.

In Conclusion

It can seem a bit overwhelming to synthesize the pros and cons of lab testing plus make an informed decision on what tests to undertake and how to interpret the results. As with all aspects of your health, it is a very individual decision and warrants taking the time to research some details rather than ceding responsibility to the professional in a white coat. Standardized guidelines are never a substitute for an informed holistic assessment.

8 Key Tips

1. Annual blood tests are a good idea—despite their drawbacks analyzing your blood can provide important insights.
2. You don’t need to go through a doctor—several direct-to-consumer options are now available without a doctor’s requisition order.
3. Non-standard tests may be helpful particularly if symptomatic—consider additional testing for better insight although be aware your insurance plan may not cover them.
4. Reference ranges are not always useful—individual physiology is important as well as taking a holistic view of all tests and their levels over time.
5. Focus on symptoms not just numbers—context is key. The numbers are just a set of data points. Energy levels, digestion, mental health, and pain for example are important indicators.
6. Absorption and interaction of different nutrients may not line up with test numbers—monitor symptoms for indication of deficiency and take a holistic view.
7. A whole food diet is optimal to address nutrient deficiencies and other concerning test results—make food your first line of defense opting for nutrient density over convenience.
8. If supplementation is required select quality brands—nutrient combinations from whole foods (not synthetically made) and a formulation that optimizes absorption is critical.