While the number of member states stood at six from the founding of the SCO until 2017, the group admitted India and Pakistan in 2017. However, India’s role in the SCO is questionable due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking closer ties to the West and a long-held animosity between India and Pakistan, according to CNN reporting.
In 2023, Iran was awarded full membership in the SCO after becoming an observer in 2005 and launching an unsuccessful membership bid in 2008.
The SCO’s predecessor, the so-called Shanghai Five, was founded in 1996. Back then it consisted of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. On June 15, 2001, Uzbekistan joined and the alliance was renamed SCO. According to the official website of the group, its aims are “strengthening mutual confidence and good-neighbourly relations among the member countries; promoting effective cooperation […]; making joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region”.
The latter part, in particular, earned the SCO comparisons to NATO, although the SCO’s joint activities are not limited to security. It’s also different due to its member states are situated on one continent rather than spread across multiple geographic regions. As is often the case, SCO’s member countries are part of a variety of other organizations like the Economic Cooperation Organization, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation or the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Ukraine will be told that it is too corrupt to join NATO at the alliance’s summit in Washington next week, The Telegraph reported on Tuesday.
The report cited a US State Department official who said Ukraine needed to take “additional steps” before talks on its NATO membership could progress. “We have to step back and applaud everything that Ukraine has done in the name of reforms over the last two-plus years,” the official said.
“As they continue to make those reforms, we want to commend them, we want to talk about additional steps that need to be taken, particularly in the area of anti-corruption. It is a priority for many of us around the table,” the official added.
President Biden has frequently cited corruption as a reason for not admitting Ukraine into NATO, but that has not stopped him from spending over $100 billion on military and economic aid for the Ukrainian government with virtually no oversight.
The position is expected to be outlined in a NATO communique issued during the summit. During last year’s NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was looking for a clear roadmap to membership, but the alliance’s communique only offered a vague statement that it would invite Ukraine to join “when Allies agree and conditions are met.”
NATO is poised to make some gestures to show support for Ukraine, including the stationing of a senior civilian official in Kyiv, according to The Wall Street Journal. The idea is to show support for future Ukrainian NATO membership without actually offering an invitation.
The Journal also reported that the alliance will announce the establishment of a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to oversee military aid and training for the Ukrainian military. The idea is to have the alliance take over duties currently overseen by the US so they could continue in the event that a future US president wants to reduce US involvement in the proxy war.
The report said the steps to “Trump proof” the Ukraine proxy war have taken on a new urgency after President Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate. Former President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about the war and said he would work out a deal to end it but hasn’t articulated a plan. He also backed House Speaker Mike Johnson as he moved forward an additional $61 billion in spending on the proxy war.
When the 56 delegates to the Second Continental Congress ratified the Declaration of Independence 248 years ago tomorrow, they were creating much more than a nation. They were giving birth to an idea.
America, at its core, is an idea.
And it’s one that ranks as one of the greatest innovations in the history of human civilization, right up there with the wheel, the steam engine, the printing press, and the Internet.
The idea of America wasn’t born in 1776, however. By then it had already evolved over thousands of years.
The ancient Greeks embraced individual liberty, direct democracy, and a respect for the rule of law.
The Roman republic further refined Greek democracy and developed a more professional legal code. The early Roman Empire embodied peace through strength, ushering in nearly two centuries of geopolitical stability and economic prosperity under the Pax Romana.
The later Byzantine Empire fused Greek and Roman ideas with Judeo-Christian values. And by 1000 AD, the Republic of Venice– borrowing from Rome’s republican form of government– infused an early form of capitalism to this model.
The Dutch republic of the 1600s refined the concept of a powerful, free, capitalist society even further, as did philosophers like Rousseau, Montesquieu, John Locke, and Adam Smith.
So, when the Founding Fathers wrote the Declaration of Independence (and subsequently the US Constitution), they didn’t have to start from scratch; they drew from a rich, 2,000-year intellectual heritage of the giants who came before them.
This means that America is ultimately a composite of the very best ideas that human civilization ever had to offer – and the combined concept was then elevated to unprecedented heights.
Nothing is perfect, and America wasn’t either.
But based on this idea, the United States became the world’s largest economy in less than a century and the dominant global superpower about 80 years later. That is an unparalleled achievement which no other superpower in human history has come close to matching.
It’s also worth pointing out that the majority of the world’s most important innovations, from airplanes and air conditioning to cell phones and chocolate chip cookies, were either born or perfected in America.
Again, none of this is an accident. America’s success is the deliberate outcome from combining the best ideas from 2,000+ years of human civilization… plus some disciplined execution and a little bit of luck.
Obviously, America has weathered challenges as well. The Civil War. The Great Depression. The turmoil of the 1960s.
But its foundation of economic potential, plus a baseline of social cohesion and shared values, have always allowed the nation to overcome… and for the idea of America to persist.
The country is now at an undeniable crossroads, and it’s not just about a single election.
There are obvious signs of national decline: rising inflation, mounting debt, diminished global standing, a loss of government dignity, and stinging embarrassments like the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Even the idea of America itself is on the ropes; there are powerful forces within government, media, and the education system who seek to redefine America’s core principles.
Capitalism has been demonized and reinvented. Individual liberty has given way to a radical woke ideology. And the concept of limited government is almost a punchline at this point.
Still, there is a plausible scenario in which America’s best days are ahead.
If politicians embrace the principles that originally fueled the country’s prosperity—such as capitalism and laissez-faire productivity—America could experience an economic boom not seen since the Industrial Revolution.
By cutting taxes, slashing anti-capitalist regulation, and embracing the free market, the increase in productivity could be staggering.
This boom would lead to increased tax revenue, i.e. funds which could rebuild the military, secure the southern border, save Social Security, curb inflation, balance the budget, and chip away at the national debt.
As China buckles under the consequences of its central planning and upside-down demographic pyramid (brought on by its idiotic “One Child policy”), the United States could easily reassert its global primacy.
The dollar’s status as the global reserve currency would be unquestioned, and the world could see a new era of global peace and prosperity.
This isnot a pipe dream. It’s a genuine possibility.
The other possibility is that the government does nothing to arrest America’s decline.
The debt continues to spiral further out of control. Rising deficits trigger painful inflation. Excessive regulation stifles economic growth, leaving the economy stagnant and performing far below its full potential.
Individuals are constrained by politicians’ incessant and debilitating rules about how to live, what to buy, and what to drive. The social fabric continues to tear apart with idiotic mandates, censorship, wokeness, gaslighting, and a hatred for capitalism.
Unfortunately, that is the road the country is presently on. Yes, it can be fixed. They can change directions. And we certainly hope that happens.
But as we used to say in the military, hope is not a course of action. That’s why we have a Plan B.
Having a Plan B is not being negative or pessimistic. It’s certainly not irrational. And it’s not unpatriotic.
The fierce individuality to NOT bow down to circumstances is exactly what has allowed America to persevere so many times before.
And taking sensible steps to preserve, protect, and defend what you have worked so hard to achieve in life is about as core of an American value as it gets.
US payrolls is expected to once again in June to 190k from 272k in May and after a cycle low 165K in April. Most economic indicators in the past month indicated labor market deterioration: jobless claims that corresponded with the BLS’ survey window for the jobs report worsened. ADP’s gauge of payrolls came in blow consensus, as wage metrics fell and analysts noted that forward looking gauges of pay compensation suggest wage growth will slow even more ahead. Challenger job cuts jumped in June YoY relative to a decline in May. Business surveys were also downbeat, with the ISM manufacturing report seeing its employment sub-index fall back into contractionary territory, while the ISM services employment component dipped further into contractionary territory.
The June jobs report will help shape expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts; currently, markets see a decent chance of two rate cuts this year (in contrast to the Fed’s median forecast for just one reduction in 2024), with the first fully discounted cut seen at the November meeting, and around a 80% chance that the cut could be seen in September – the June report may help to define that pricing. A huge miss tomorrow and the odds of a July rate cut or a double rate cut in September will spike.
EXPECTATIONS:
The rate of headline payrolls growth is expected to cool to +190k in June, down from +272k in May, and down from a 3 month average 249k, 6 month average 255k, and 12 month average 230k. Wall Street estimates range from a high of 237K at RBC Capital Markets, all the way down to 140K at Goldman Sachs, which for once has lost its Panglossian optimism and expects a downright ugly number.
To justify its bearish outlier estimate, Goldman expects payrolls to rise only 140k in June, as “Big Data measures continue to indicate a below-normal pace of job creation during the spring hiring season, and our layoff tracker continues to edge higher from low levels. We also assume a 50k drag from payback effects, because we believe the longer-than-usual survey window in last month’s report pulled forward reported job growth from June into May. While the seasonal factors in principle adjust for these effects, it appears they may have been distorted by the weak payrolls reading in May 2019, which was also 5 weeks long.”
The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.0% (NOTE: the Fed’s June SEP has pencilled in a rate of 4.0% for this year, rising to 4.2% next year).
The rate of average hourly earnings growth is seen paring to +0.3% M/M (vs +0.4% in May), while the annual rate is likely to ease to 3.9% Y/Y from 4.1%.
MAY’S DATA:
The May jobs data surprised to the upside, with the headline and wage metrics rising above expectations (as we reported, it was the “most ridiculous jobs report in years“). Other analysts also noted that this strong number seemed at odds with other labor market indicators, like initial jobless claims and Challenger layoffs data. Some of the upside has been chalked up to stronger government payrolls, but Capital Economics said that “with balanced budget requirements forcing state and local governments to rein in spending and hiring to eliminate growing deficits, there is scope for a smaller gain, or even outright decline, in government payrolls in June,” and “given the widespread announcements of education sector layoffs, we are worried that will become a drag.” It adds, however, that most of the impact of this will likely be seen in the July data. May’s JOLTs data (a key barometer monitored by Fed officials, and was released after the May BLS jobs data), saw headline job openings rise to 8.14mln (exp. 7.91mln) from a revised down 7.92mln April reading – driven entirely by an increase in government job openings…
… with the vacancy rate ticking up to 4.9% from 4.8%; some Fed officials see the vacancy rate as one of the best representations of excess labor demand; Fed Governor Waller has said that if the vacancy rate continued to fall below 4.5%, it would likely suggest that excess labour demand has been worked off, and the unemployment rate could start to rise. The May JOLTs data also saw the Quits Rate unchanged at 2.2% for the 7th consecutive month; Oxford Economics notes that it stands a little below pre-pandemic levels, and is consistent with ongoing moderation in wage growth, but it is not sending any signals about significant weakness in the labor market. Note, at the June 12th FOMC, Fed Chair Powell was quizzed about the different pictures the household and establishment surveys are showing within the BLS report. Powell acknowledged that sometimes you can’t reconcile the differences, but that is why it makes sense to look at the 3, 6 and 12-months series, rather than just one report. But nonetheless, the overall picture is one of a strong and gradually cooling-gradually rebalancing labor market.
JOBLESS CLAIMS:
In the week that corresponds to the BLS survey window for the June jobs report, weekly initial jobless claims data were at 239k vs 216k heading into the May jobs report, while continuing claims were up at 1.839mln vs 1.79mln going into the prior jobs report. Oxford Economics said that “initial claims suggest that the gain in non-farm employment in May won’t be duplicated in June, and the risks to the labour market should be garnering attention by the Fed.” It points out that the softening in the job growth has been primarily driven by a deceleration in hiring via reduced labour demand, with the job openings rate having declined noticeably, but that still has not translated into a significant rise in the unemployment rate. On continuing claims, it notes that in the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window, it rose to the highest since late 2021; “the rise in continued claims on the surface points to a moderation in job growth,” but adds that “increases in claims in California and Minnesota – which accounted for more than half the total rise in continued claims – are likely due more to noise than any underlying softening in the labour market.”
ADP EMPLOYMENT & WAGES:
While analysts offer their usual caveats about how the data series offers low predictive power for the more widely followed BLS jobs report, ADP’s gauge of national employment printed 150k in June (exp. 160k, prior 157k). The median change in annual pay for job-stayers fell to the slowest since August 2021 at 4.9% Y/Y (prev. 5.0%), and it eased to 7.7% Y/Y (prev. 7.8%) for job-changers. The payrolls provider said that while job growth has been solid, it was not broad based, adding that had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month. Despite Average Hourly Earnings moving higher in May, Capital Economics notes that forward-looking indicators, like job quit rates, still point to wage growth declining to nearer 3.5% Y/Y. CapEco is below consensus, expecting average hourly earnings to rise +0.2% M/M (consensus looks for +0.3%), owing to favourable base effects; that may be enough to bring the annual rate of AHE down to 3.8% Y/Y (consensus: 3.9%).
BUSINESS SURVEYS:
Within ISM’s manufacturing PMI for June, the employment index fell to 49.3 from 51.1 in May, beneath the 50.0 mark that separates expansion and contraction. The report said that many respondents’ are continuing to reduce headcounts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes, though commentary in June indicated a marginal decline in staff reductions vs May, supported by the approximately 1.3-to-1 ratio of hiring versus head-count reduction comments. The ISM Services PMI saw the employment component dip further into contractionary territory at 46.1 from 47.1 in May. Elsewhere, Challenger reported US job cuts were -19.8% Y/Y at 48,786 in June (vs 63,816 in May). So far this year, 434,645 job cuts have been announced (-5.1% vs the 458,209 in H1 of 2023). Most job cuts were seen in consumer products manufacturers, followed by technology, and then construction. Challenger said “June is typically a low month for job cut announcements, as most companies are midyear or at the end of their fiscal years,” and that “the months following fiscal year ends tend to have a spike in cuts, as those plans are implemented.”
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:
The Conference Board’s data showed consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions increased to 141.5 (prev. 140.8), while the expectations on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and the labor market fell to 73.0 (prev. 74.9); the CB notes that the Expectations Index has been below 80, a threshold which usually signals a recession ahead, for five consecutive months. That said, the appraisal of the labor market improved in June, with 38.1 saying that jobs were “plentiful” (prev. 37.0 in May), while 14.1 said jobs were “hard to get” (prev. 14.3%). The short-term outlook was also less negative in the month, with 12.6 expecting more jobs to be available (down from 13.1 in May), while 17.3% anticipated fewer jobs ahead (vs prev. 18.8). The CB’s economists said “confidence pulled back in June, but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labour market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future,” but warned that if material weaknesses in the labour market were to appear, confidence could weaken ahead. The report also said that consumers’ feelings were mixed; their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labour market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled. And for a second consecutive month, consumers were slightly less pessimistic about future labour market conditions despite expectations for both future income and business conditions weakening.
ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT
Big Data. Alternative measures of employment growth generally indicate a softer pace of hiring in June, with a median pace of +150k across the five indicators Goldman tracks (vs. +150k in May and compared to reported May job growth of +272k). An even slower pace of job gains is implied by the Homebase employer panel (+100k). Withheld income and employment taxes also decelerated further (-1% yoy in June compared to +2% in May and +6% on average in January-April, nominal basis).
Payback from the long May payroll month. Goldman assumes a 50k drag from a pull-forward of reported jobs into May related to a longer BLS survey window—5 weeks from the April survey week to the May survey week, compared to 4 weeks in a typical May. Additionally, the seasonal factor for last month’s report was unusually favorable, providing a 12k boost to monthly payroll gains relative to May 2019 and a 64k boost relative to May 2014, the last two Mays that also had five weeks. While the seasonal factors in principle adjust for the 5-week effect, it appears they may have been distorted by a weak payrolls reading in May 2019, which was also 5 weeks long.
ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT
Job availability. JOLTS job openings rebounded 0.2mn to 8.1mn in May, but online measures have trended lower. While labor demand has fallen meaningfully over the last year, it remains elevated by 1mn relative to 2019 and represents a positive factor for job growth. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—edged up by 1.3pt to +24.0 in June but remains below the +30.4 average level of Q1.
NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS
Immigration. Elevated illegal immigration boosted labor supply growth by roughly 80k per month last year, relative to normal, and Goldman expects a continued tailwind averaging 50k per month this year. While the pace of immigration has slowed sharply in 2024 and foreign-born unemployment pulled back in May, the absolute number of jobseekers in that labor supply segment still remained roughly 200k above 2022-23 levels to start the June payroll month.
Layoffs. Layoff activity increased from low levels in June, with the GS layoff tracker edging up to to 1.24mn from 1.20mn in May and compared to the recent low of 1.1mn in December and January. Initial jobless claims also increased, to an average of 233k in the June payroll month from 218k in May and above the 223k average of 2023 (though some of the increase reflects expanded eligibility). The JOLTS layoff rate was unchanged at 1.0% in May. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas decreased by 6k in June to 50k (SA by GS), compared to 54k on average in the second half of 2023.
Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys increased but remained at contractionary levels in June. The employment component of the GS manufacturing survey tracker increased 0.2pt to 48.4 while the employment component of the GS services survey tracker decreased 1.8pt to 49.8. However, the signal from soft data has been less useful—and at times misleading—during the post-pandemic period.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS:
Fed officials generally agree that inflation would need to continue cooling, and the labor market would need to continue its gradual rebalancing for rate cut conditions to be met. That said, as Newsquawk notes, their policy reaction could be tilted back towards ‘higher for longer’ if inflation were to misbehave again; although the plan to cut rates could be accelerated if there were unexpected weakness in the labor market. Speaking this week, Fed Chair Powell said that while the labor market was cooling-off, it was still strong. This has also been a theme among other policymakers too. Officials have generally been arguing that they are trying to tame inflation without causing any stress in the labor market; Powell did repeat however that any unexpected weakness in the jobs market could trigger the Fed to react with looser policy. Previously, however, he has indicated that a small movement in the unemployment rate, of a couple of tenths, would not constitute this unexpected weakness.
For reference, and perhaps providing some context to Powell’s caveats, the Fed’s latest economic projections see the jobless rate at 4.0% at the end of this year, where it currently stands (the Fed’s broad range of forecasts for 2024 is between 3.8-4.5%); it is then seen picking up to 4.1% next year (broad range: 3.7-4.3%), and at 4.1% in the long-run (long-run range of forecasts is between 3.8–4.3%). Fed Governor Cook recently said that it would take monthly job gains of around 200k to keep the unemployment rate steady. In aggregate, the deceleration in inflation, combined with the decent labor market conditions gives the Fed scope to be patient before acting on rates, analysts at Oxford Economics argue; that way they can ensure inflation is on its way to target in a sustainable manner.
More in the full preview folder available to pro subscribers.
Labour Set For Crushing 170 Seat Majority In UK General Election, As Conservative Party Suffers Worst Result In Its History
The year of record elections continues to serve up dramatic results, and on Thursday, a national exit poll in the UK general election indicated that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives will crash out of office after 14 years after Keir Starmer’s Labour party was heading for a massive majority of about 170 seats. The poll on Thursday night suggested Starmer will become prime minister with 410 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, while Sunak’s party is facing the worst result in its history, with just 131 seats.
The result, according to the FT, is “momentous for Britain and will resonate around the world” because at a time when right-wing populists are advancing in many countries, political power in the UK has swung back to a liberal, internationalist, centre-left party.
But Labour’s victory was projected to be delivered on a smaller share of the vote than the 40% secured by leftwing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in his 2017 general election defeat — suggesting the public remains sceptical.
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary David Lammy warned: “If we do not deliver for working people, we will be out and nationalists will be on our tails.” He added: “That’s the lesson we have seen around the world.” Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was projected to do better than expected with 13 seats, a result that would be a big breakthrough for his right-wing populist party.
The first two constituencies to report results on Thursday evening, both in the north of England, showed Labour wins with Reform in second place.
Labour’s victory is a personal triumph for Starmer, who took over the party’s leadership in 2020 after the party’s worst election defeat in almost a century. His projected victory is similar in scale to Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour landslide.
That said, while the Ipsos exit poll is usually a reliable predictor of overall results, the final result may still differ. Vote counts from individual constituencies will trickle in through the night, with Labour, if the polls are correct, likely to have a clear majority by 5am.
According to the exit survey, the centrist Liberal Democrats was on course to win 61 seats, close to the 62-seat record set by the party in 2005. The Lib Dems are forecast to make big gains in the Tory “blue wall” of rich constituencies in the south of England. The Scottish National party was set to come behind Labour in Scotland with just 10 seats, according to the exit poll, putting a serious dent in the party’s dream of securing independence.
The survey exposed the overwhelming sentiment reported by candidates from all parties that Britain wanted “change”, with many senior Tories admitting during the campaign that the party looked exhausted. The UK has been under Conservative rule for 14 years, during which time there have been five prime ministers, with a near catastrophic banking and bond market crisis erupting during the brief reign of Liz Truss. The period was marked by economic austerity, Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic and an energy price shock.
Former Tory minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said it was “clearly a terrible night” and added that the Conservatives had taken votes for granted.
Starmer is set to become only the seventh Labour prime minister in the party’s history, and his victory is the first since 2005 for the center-left party. Labour last ousted the Tories from power in 1997, when Tony Blair became prime minister in a crushing victory over John Major’s Tories. He will move into 10 Downing Street on Friday and immediately form his cabinet, with an instruction to ministers to quickly deliver policies to jolt Britain out of its low-growth torpor.
The exit poll indicated that Starmer’s avowedly pro-growth, pro-business agenda has paid off, as Labour bucked international political trends. Far-right parties have performed strongly in recent elections for the European and French parliaments, while in the US, Donald Trump is leading in polls for the presidential race.
Labour’s chancellor-in-waiting Rachel Reeves has said she hopes investors will now see the UK as a “safe haven” although once the UK unleashes the next spending spree to fund all the various welfare projects, we fully expect another quick funding crisis and even more QE.
Starmer has promised to work with business to stimulate growth, with an agenda that includes planning reform and state investment in green technology. Labour will also pursue a traditional agenda of reforms to worker rights.
As for outgoing PM Sunak, the result is a personal disaster. He chose to hold an early election on July 4 — against the advice of his campaign chief Isaac Levido — and ran an error-strewn six-week attempt to turn around his party’s fortunes.
The party’s projected total of 131 seats is lower than the party’s worst-ever result of 156 in 1906. Starmer’s expected seat haul is close to the 418 seats won by Tony Blair in his 1997 landslide victory.
A number of senior Tory figures are expected to lose their seats on a night of devastation, reducing the cast list of potential contenders for the party leadership if, as expected, Sunak stands down. Among the cabinet ministers deemed to be at risk by the exit poll are Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Grant Shapps, with results due in their seats in the early hours.
The top prosecutor in Arkansas warned on July 2 that Americans should be wary of using the Temu marketplace app because it’s effectively a “data theft business.”
“The threat from China is not new, and it is real,” Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin told Fox Business on July 2, a week after his office filed a lawsuit against the company. “Temu is not an online marketplace like Amazon or Walmart. It’s a data theft business that sells goods as a means to an end.”
He said that it’s “common for an online marketplace like Amazon, like Walmart, to collect certain consumer data as part of the normal course of business. I think we all know that that’s not what’s going on here.”
Instead, the company is using malware and spyware to “get into your phone, your device, and to collect your data,” Mr. Griffin told the outlet.
“Not just traditional consumer data, but using malware, spyware to have complete access to your information. And [taking it] one step further, their code is written in such a way to evade detection,” he said.
Temu is operated by Shanghai, China-based parent company Pinduoduo Inc., which includes “former Chinese communist officials” in its ranks, Mr. Griffin said.
The lawsuit, filed against the firm’s parent company, is seeking a jury trial as well as a permanent block against Temu’s data-collection activities. It also seeks a $10,000 fine for each violation of an Arkansas state law known as the Deceptive Practices Act.
The suit primarily cites research from Grizzly Research, which analyzes publicly traded firms, and alleges that Temu can “purposely … gain unrestricted access to a user’s phone operating system, including, but not limited to, a user’s camera, specific location, contacts, text messages, documents, and other applications.”
In its report, Grizzly Research said that it suspects that Temu is “already, or intends to, illegally sell stolen data from Western country customers to sustain a business model that is otherwise doomed for failure.”
“Temu is estimated to be losing $30 per order. Its ad spending and shipping costs (1 to 2 weeks from China, expedited to U.S. delivery) are astronomical,” the report states.
“One is left wondering how this business could ever be profitable. Temu is a notoriously bad actor in its industry. We see rampant user manipulation, chain-letter-like affinity scams to drive signups, and overall, the most aggressive and questionable techniques to manipulate large numbers of people to install the app.”
In a statement to The Epoch Times on Tuesday evening, a Temu spokesperson that it was “disappointed” and said the Arkansas lawsuit doesn’t cite “any independent fact-finding.”
“The allegations in the lawsuit are based on misinformation circulated online, primarily from a short-seller, and are totally unfounded. We categorically deny the allegations and will vigorously defend ourselves,” the firm stated. “We understand that as a new company with an innovative supply chain model, some may misunderstand us at first glance and not welcome us.”
The spokesperson continued, “We are committed to the long-term and believe that scrutiny will ultimately benefit our development. We are confident that our actions and contributions to the community will speak for themselves over time.”
According to analytics website Backlinko, Temu was the most downloaded shopping app around the world in 2023, with more than 330 million downloads—about 1.8 times more than the Amazon Shopping app.
On July 1, the Texas Public Policy Foundation issued a similar warning about the app, saying that it “can access almost anything on your phone,” which means that Chinese Communist Party officials “could theoretically install applications and spyware files on an individual’s smart device to use for complete surveillance of all user activity on a phone.
“This would allow China to monitor keystrokes and logs to have direct insight into login credentials for other social media, emails, and bank accounts,” the foundation warned.
Temu officials didn’t respond by press time to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.
Big Mexican Cartels Ramp Up Operations In Hawaii As America’s Fentanyl Crisis Broadens
Mexican drug cartels, including Sinaloa and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), are aggressively expanding into Hawaii, flooding the islands with methamphetamines and fentanyl.
Local authorities told media outlet KHON2 that Sinaloa and CJNG are expanding business in the island state by sending drugs via passengers’ luggage, mailed packages, and body carriers flying into Honolulu International Airport.
Drug cartels from Mexico are operating in Hawaii, making and pushing deadly drugs including methamphetamines and fentanyl.
“Violent cartels, primarily the Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Generation cartels, and they’re killing each other,” explained Gary Yabuta, executive director of the Hawaii High-Density Drug Trafficking Area.
Yabuta said, “They’re competing for territory and turf to make sure that their drugs get across the border and sent throughout the nation, including Hawaii.”
US Attorney Clare Connors told the local media outlet that Sinaloa and CJNG are primarily behind the new push in flooding Hawaii with drugs.
“Largely, however, it is cartel interaction with local drug trafficking organizations,” Connors said.
Yabuta said, “Methamphetamine is still our greatest drug threat here in Hawaii, and that has risen, too throughout the years, including 2023 drug-related deaths,” adding, “However, fentanyl drug-related deaths are catching up. It’s rising at a faster rate.”
One of the main reasons cartels expand across the islands is the lack of competition and law enforcement.
NewsNation noted, “An oxycodone pill selling for $2 in Los Angeles can fetch $16 or more in Hawaii.”
According to Families Against Fentanyl, the surge in fentanyl overdose deaths placed Hawaii number seven nationally on a list with a 27% increase in fentanyl-related deaths in 2023.
Meanwhile, these same cartels are fueling the fentanyl epidemic across the Lower 48, resulting in a US drug death catastrophe that eclipses the Vietnam War every six months.
Last week, a new report from the Financial Times revealed details about a dark Chinese money-laundering network partnering with Mexican drug cartels.
In mid-April, the House Select Committee on China revealed that the Chinese Communist Party used tax rebates to subsidize the manufacturing and exporting of fentanyl chemicals to overseas customers.
“The West Coast Coalition is comprised of law enforcement agencies from California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska,” Peace Officers Research Assoc. of CA recently wrote on X.
They continued, “We can’t sit here and continue to let our communities suffer.”
Fentanyl is one of the many issues the West Coast Coalition is working together to address. We can’t sit here and continue to let our communities suffer.
The West Coast Coalition is comprised of law enforcement agencies from California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska.… pic.twitter.com/uSxO6Xirts
The biggest mystery here is why the Biden administration hasn’t taken a tougher stance on China while America’s fentanyl epidemic is killing a generation of youth. This should be a national security threat, yet elderly Joe Biden is likely too busy eating ice cream.
Americans are angry and divided – perhaps more than at any time since the Civil War.
Holding strong opinions, especially in defense of truth, is no vice.
But failing to bridge our differences and resolve them peacefully is no virtue, either.
Here’s my “to do” list if you want to be part of the solution instead of the problem.
1. Choose someone you disagree with and start a dialogue. Make friends, even if neither of you changes your mind.
2. Find common ground, avoid epithets, and presume goodwill on the part of others unless and until their actions suggest otherwise.
3. Embrace America as an imperfect, unfinished product—and one whose future depends on a respect for those principles that made it largely free and exceptional in the first place. No country is without flaws, and few countries in world history have accomplished as much for life and liberty as America.
4. Think twice before using political connections and influence to get something you can’t secure voluntarily from others in the marketplace. Cronyism diminishes respect for both you and for the free enterprise system it corrupts.
5. Judge every individual by “the content of his character” and the merit of his actions, not by the group to which he was assigned by birth, origin, faith, color, or politics.
6. Elevate the importance of personal character in your life. No society can flourish if it denigrates virtues such as honesty, humility, patience, responsibility, tolerance, courage, gratitude, self-discipline, and respect for the lives, rights, property, and choices of others.
7. Choose liberty over power and persuasion over force. Find ways in which you can leave the world not only a better place, but a freer one as well, for life without liberty is both unthinkable and unlivable.
8. Live your life as though politics is but a corner of it, not consumed by it. Recognize the incalculable value of intact families, vibrant and voluntary associations, community engagement, loving relationships, and institutions created and sustained outside the divisive realm of politics.
9. Ask yourself every day, “Am I good enough for liberty?” Then dedicate yourself to self-improvement if you can’t honestly answer “yes.” Reforming the world starts with reforming oneself.
10. Defend the free speech of all people. If you catch yourself attempting to intimidate, shut down, or frighten others into submission, shake it off before the impulse turns you into an antisocial monster. “Cancel” nobody except those who insist on canceling others.
11. Revere truth and the honest search for it. Never let truth be obscured or destroyed by claims that it doesn’t matter or that it is nothing more than a subjective whim of the moment. There is no such thing as “his truth” or “her truth,” only “the truth.”
12. Seek diversity of opinion. Minds that try to stigmatize or close the minds of others or that pretend that color, sex, and religion are all that matter are enemies of the “diversity” that matters most.
13. Love peace more than you love force, conflict, compulsion, and intolerance. Work toward a society in which individuals choose to do right because they want to, not because they’re forced to.
14. Reject nihilism, cynicism, and pessimism. People of goodwill and character can shape the future for the better. It’s never too soon or too late to start.
15. Learn from history; don’t rewrite it. Lessons from the past can make us better people in the future. Don’t twist your underwear into a knot over an old statue. Never allow the poison of “presentism” to corrupt your perspective.
16. Celebrate the “uncommon.” It is the uncommon to whom we owe the greatest debt—those who speak truth to power, invent and innovate, turn failure into success, and add value to society. No one should encourage a child, for example, to aspire to nothing more than “commonness.” Respect and encourage the exceptional.
Former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell (D-Maine) once said:
“I believe there’s no such thing as a conflict that can’t be ended. They’re created and sustained by human beings. They can be ended by human beings. No matter how ancient the conflict, no matter how hateful, no matter how hurtful, peace can prevail.”
I hope he’s right. But in any event, no peace of any kind can prevail so long as we nurture conflict within and between ourselves. No peace of any kind can long be imposed from the outside in. It must begin on the inside, as a matter of conscience, one conscientious individual at a time, and then grow outward into a course of action.
These 16 suggestions constitute a course of action for each reader to consider.
Dior, Armani Under Investigation For “Made In Italy” Handbags Produced By Migrants
Italian prosecutors investigated the local supply chains of two major Italian fashion houses. Their investigation found that some designer handbags are manufactured by exploited foreign labor. This revelation, while shocking to some, comes as no surprise to readers who already understand the agenda of the Western elites: flood Europe and the US with illegal aliens to capitalize off cheap labor (also votes).
The Wall Street Journal cited court documents showing LVMH subsidiary Dior paid a supplier about $57 to assemble luxury handbags that sell for $2,780 in brick-and-mortar retail shops. Meanwhile, Giorgio Armani bags were sold to local suppliers for around $100, then resold to Armani for $270, and ultimately placed on retail store shelves for $1945 or more.
WSJ noted, “The cost prices don’t include leather or other raw materials. The companies separately cover the costs of design, distribution, and marketing.”
“Why does it cost so little to manufacture the product?” said Fabio Roia, president of Milan’s court system, adding, “The brands need to ask themselves this question.”
Prosecutors allege that some of the luxury handbags made by the fashion houses’ suppliers with the “Made in Italy” stamp are actually made in sweatshops within the European country, employing low-cost Chinese labor. They say many of the sweatshops fall extremely short of legal workshop codes.
As a result of the Italian investigation, judges in June placed Manufactures Dior SRL—a unit of Dior—under so-called court administration after ruling that its supply chain included Chinese-owned firms in Italy that mistreated migrant workers. The same measure was taken against Armani in April and Alviero Martini, known for its map-print bags and other items, in January. -WSJ
In a 34-page court order, the court wrote that Italian police in March and April found migrant workers in “hygiene and health conditions that are below the minimum required by an ethical approach” at Milan-area companies in Dior’s supply chain.
Investigators interviewed workers from one of Armani’s subsidiaries, GA Operations, which hired a number of Chinese-owned subcontractors across Italy. These subcontractors paid migrant workers a few euros per hour.
Customers who expect the highest quality from the “Made in Italy” label are just now discovering that some of these luxury products are tainted with exploited migrant labor. The grim reality of open borders is revealed: it’s about diluting domestic workers for cheap migrants. For this, we can thank the Western elites.
In 1776, members of the Second Continental Congress gathered in Philadelphia had already made a decision the impact of which would be felt around the world for centuries to come: the collective colonies agreed to declare their independence from Great Britain, at the time the most powerful nation on the planet.
Many people know what happened next.
The document, written by a young and upstart Thomas Jefferson, was officially approved by the Continental Congress.
News of its adoption traveled the breadth of the eastern seaboard, the news slowly and painstakingly making its way to the frontiers.
It reignited the political tensions felt everywhere at the time between loyalists and the patriots clamoring for independence.
Fewer people know about the personal intrigues, motives, and political aspirations of the 56 men who ultimately affixed their name to the document, pledging: “Our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor” to a cause that, at the time, may have seemed nearly hopeless.
July 4, 1776, changed the trajectory of world history forever.
On that day the Continental Congress voted to adopt Jefferson’s draft of the Declaration of Independence.
But at the time, it was far from obvious that July 4 would become Independence Day.
July 2 seemed the obvious day for celebration to John Adams.
On that day, the Continental Congress adopted Virginian Richard Henry Lee’s motion officially declaring that the colonies “are, and of right ought to be, free and independent states.”
Writing to his wife, Abigail Adams, Adams famously declared that July 2: “Will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival.
“It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other.”
Of course, it was ultimately the adoption of the Declaration on July 4, and not the July 2 adoption of the resolution that paved its way, that became the United States’ formal Independence Day.
When people think about the Declaration of Independence, they may think of a room of elder statesmen, as depicted in the famous work of artist John Trumbull.
In point of fact, the 56 delegates gathered in Philadelphia in 1776 were younger than this image may suggest, on average clocking in at just 44 years old.
That included a broad range of ages, from 20-somethings to a septuagenarian.
The youngest signatory of the document was South Carolina’s Edward Rutledge, who was just 26 years and 8 months old.
Another South Carolina signatory, Thomas Lynch Jr., was three days shy of his 27th birthday.
A plurality of the signatories, meanwhile, were in their 30s with many others in their early 40s.
Only seven of them, including 70-year-old Benjamin Franklin, the oldest signatory of the declaration, were 60 years of age or older.
While independence may seem in retrospect to be a foregone conclusion, that wasn’t necessarily the case.
Several members of the Continental Congress were skeptical of independence.
Many founders initially took a more moderate stance toward grievances with the home island.
That’s not to say that nobody was thinking about it—the idea was already stirring in coffeehouses and taverns across the colonies, and revolutionary leaders like Adams were outspoken in favor of independence as early as 1774.
By 1775, particularly following the Battles of Lexington and Concord, the idea had been adopted by most congressional leaders.
But some moderates—led by John Dickinson, famous for his “Letters From a Pennsylvania Farmer”—remained skeptical about independence until the eleventh hour.
These included Robert Livingston, one of the most powerful and renowned names in New York who later served a variety of diplomatic roles for the fledgling U.S. government, and John Jay, who later became the first chief justice of the Supreme Court.
The divides were even more pronounced among the people: After the war, Mr. Adams was famously quoted as saying: “One-third of the [American] people were for the Revolution, one-third were against it, and one-third were neutral.”
Of all the signatures attached to the Declaration of Independence, John Hancock’s is perhaps the most famous.
Mr. Hancock was famously unfazed by the risk of being hanged for treason, affixed his name—now the most recognizable signature in American political history—in large characters to the bottom of the Declaration.
What fewer people know are the personal motives that may have influenced this decision.
Prior to the Revolutionary War, Mr. Hancock was one of the most successful smugglers in North America.
His business flourished, in large part, thanks to the phenomenon of “salutary neglect,” during which British agents were lax in their enforcement of customs laws.
But after the end of the French and Indian War in 1763, British coffers were empty.
To refill them, Britain ended the unofficial policy of salutary neglect, coming down hard on smugglers and others trying to evade British customs laws.
Mr. Hancock, as the most successful smuggler in North America, was especially adversely affected by this crackdown, even having his ship—the Liberty—seized by British officials for legal violations.
Thus, for Mr. Hancock, the Revolution represented not only an ideological imperative but a financial one as well.
The Declaration of Independence is today viewed by Americans as a near-sacrosanct document, a founding justification of the core ideals of the new nation founded in 1776.
Today, its words—with their message of “inalienable rights” and “self-evident” truths—are deeply entangled in Americans’ political sense of self and are regularly repeated from presidential stump speeches to the halls of Capitol Hill.
But for all that, it took time for the declaration to become such an important fixture of American life and history.
At the time, it simply made official a revolt against the Crown that was already effectively underway.
After the last signature was affixed in August 1776, the document itself remained in the custody of Congress in Philadelphia, only one of several important documents at the time.
It wasn’t until Jefferson became President Jefferson in 1800—the “Revolution of 1800”—that the document, written by him, began to take pride of place in Americans’ hearts and minds.
That year, the document was moved to the new seat of government in Washington.
Until 1952, it was moved often within the capital, sometimes being held in the Library of Congress, sometimes in the State Department; it was moved twice, during the War of 1812 and again during World War II, for safekeeping.
But since 1952, the document has been prominently displayed in the National Archives, where it remains one of the capital’s most famous attractions.
