US Interior Department Greenlights Major Offshore Wind Project In New Jersey

US Interior Department Greenlights Major Offshore Wind Project In New Jersey

Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times

The Department of Interior announced its approval of a large-scale offshore wind turbine project in New Jersey on Tuesday.

The Interior Department stated that the Atlantic Shores South project will be located approximately 8 miles from the New Jersey shore and involve the construction of 195 wind turbines that will be supported by 10 offshore substations with subsea transmission cables “potentially making landfall in Atlantic City and Sea Girt, New Jersey.”

The project will consist of two wind farms that will have the capacity to generate 2,800 megawatts of electricity that can power up to one million homes, the DoI said.

The department said it’s the ninth offshore wind energy project at a commercial scale to get federal approval.

These nine projects will generate up to 13 gigawatts of offshore wind-generated energy, enough to power up to 5 million homes.

“The Biden-Harris administration is building momentum every day for our clean energy future, and today’s milestone is yet another step toward our ambitious goal of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore energy by 2030,” said Interior Department Secretary Deb Haaland.

“Our clean energy future is now a reality—thanks to President Biden’s Investing in America agenda we are addressing climate change, fostering job growth, and promoting equitable economic opportunities for all communities.”

Atlantic Offshore Wind is a partnership between Shell New Energies and EDF Renewables North America.

‘One Step Closer’

In a press release issued on the federal approval, Joris Veldhoven, the chief executive officer for Atlantic Offshore Wind, said the decision “brings us one step closer to delivering New Jersey’s first offshore wind projects and for the state achieving its ambitious goal of 100% clean energy by 2035.”

“We recognize the significance of this milestone and we’re excited to work with our supply chain partners to continue making near-term investments and creating great paying union jobs,” he said.

According to the company, one of the wind farm projects will give the local economy a $848 million boon through “job creation and workforce development.”

In total, the entire project will bring $1.9 billion to the state, Atlantic Shores Wind said.

‘Negligible to Moderate Adverse Impacts’

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management in May published its joint record of decision on the Atlantic Shores Wind’s environmental impact statement (EIS) in which it concluded that the project will have “negligible to moderate adverse impacts on most resources.”

“The numerous consultations performed under various federal statutes and the analysis in the final EIS indicate that approval of the Preferred Alternative would not result in undue harm to environmental resources or in unreasonable interference with other OCS [outer continental shelf] uses,” BOEM’s report stated. 

Elizabeth Klein, BOEM’s energy management director, called the project “an intentional collaborative process.”

“At BOEM, our dedication to engaging with Tribal Nations, states, other government agencies, industry, environmental organizations, and ocean users remains paramount, ensuring responsibility development while addressing community concerns and safeguarding our marine ecosystems,” she said.

Wind Energy Opposition

Some of those community concerns have been expressed by organizations such as Protect Our Coast NJ, which has opposed the construction of offshore wind farms, stating that they will ruin the tourism industry that centers around the scenic beachside views.

These organizations have claimed that the infrasound tools used in surveying for the wind turbines are disrupting the navigation of whales and dolphins, which increases fatal vessel strikes.

Officials have denied the correlation in previous reports.

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times on the Biden administration’s approval of the project, Protect Our Coast NJ President Robin Shaffer said though the decision is no surprise, it’s still alarming.

“We are concerned that Atlantic Shores with its towering skyscrapers in the ocean will spell trouble for critical habitats for fish, marine mammals and migratory waterfowl,” she said.

“Offshore wind construction and operations disrupt wildlife and ecosystems, and threaten the livelihoods of commercial fisherman and small businesses up and down the east coast.”

The organization is “incredulous” that these projects are moving at such as rapid pace, she said.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 08:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/CIPMWm6 Tyler Durden

Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint (Again), Continuing Claims Worst Since Dec 2021

Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint (Again), Continuing Claims Worst Since Dec 2021

Following a weaker than expected AP print, jobless claims data is worse than expected too.

Initial claims rose to 238k last week from a revised 234k (and above the 235k expected). On an NSA basis, this is the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims continue to rise also, hitting 1.858 million Americans last week – the highest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The trend (4-week moving average) in initial claims is clear… and is starting to catch up to WARNs and Job Cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Have Powell and Biden suddenly decided its ok to admit reality in order to force a July rate-cut and save the election?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 08:39

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lvOJSQW Tyler Durden

Watch: Press Hammers KJP, Repeatedly Demand To Know If Biden Has Dementia During Briefing

Watch: Press Hammers KJP, Repeatedly Demand To Know If Biden Has Dementia During Briefing

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre, holding her first proper press briefing for two weeks, was bombarded with questions from reporters repeatedly demanding to know whether Joe Biden is mentally ill.

Jean Pierre became visibly agitated as the reporters from The Independent, Fox News, CBS, CNN, ABC, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, Newsmax, and NBC one by one asked the same question.

Andrew Feinberg from the Independent asked why Biden can’t speak directly to reporters and why he never says anything that isn’t on an auto cue or scripted.

KJP dodged the question, claiming Biden has done hundreds of unscripted interviews.

“I’m going to ask something delicate and you may not like it. The President may not like to hear it if he’s watching but I think the American people need a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer. Does President Biden, at 81 years old, have Alzheimer’s, any form of dementia, or degenerative illness that may cause these sorts of lapses?” Feinberg followed up.

It just continued from there:

They asked her if Biden’s camp is being straight with the American people about Biden’s health.

They, like everyone else can smell the BS.

Everyone knows they’re trying to hide it and have been for years.

It just went on and on:

And on:

And on.

And on.

Literally every question was about Biden’s brain damage:

They’re finally done playing along:

It’s odd though, given that they’ve been running cover more than four years:

There has been a major shift, and the press is now falling into line.

* * *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 08:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/0MtXB5m Tyler Durden

ADP Payrolls Disappoint In June – 3rd Straight Monthly Decline In Additions

ADP Payrolls Disappoint In June – 3rd Straight Monthly Decline In Additions

ADP reported 150k job additions in June (well below the 165k expected) – the third straight monthly decline in job additions and the weakest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Even ADP’s top economist couldn’t spin it…

“Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based. Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month,” said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

Once again Services dominated job additions…

Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers were 4.9 percent in June, the slowest pace of growth since August 2021. Pay gains for job-changers also slowed, to 7.7 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that ADP has under-estimated the government’s official BLS payrolls print for 9 of the last 10 months…

Source: Bloomberg

…or the official data has vastly over-estimated reality?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 08:23

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3Fkplct Tyler Durden

Futures Trade At Record High Ahead Of Data Flood

Futures Trade At Record High Ahead Of Data Flood

US futures traded at new record highs amid rising optimism a Fed rate cut is coming, perhaps as soon as the end of the month, and ignored sticky high yields which traded near the highest level in a month. As of 8:00am ET, and ahead of a data barrage later in the day which includes ADP, Trade and claims data, as well as the latest PMI, ISM, Factory orders and Durable goods reports, S&P and Nasdaq futures were flat, erasing a modest gain earlier in the session, and ahead of a shortened-session that will end at 1 p.m. because of the July 4 holiday. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed above 5,500 for the first time notching its 32nd record this year. Tech and small-caps are outperforming as the market received a bullish boost from Powell but now the question is whether the macro data (and earnings) can deliver with ISM Services today and NFP on Friday. European markets took heart from Wall Street’s latest all-time highs and efforts to block a right-wing majority in French elections. Bond yields are flat to +1bps as the curve is flattening; USD is lower and commodities are higher led by metals where silver is the standout. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM Services, ADP/Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, and Fed Minutes (released after the Equity close). 

In premarket trading, TSLA led the Mag 7, +2.8% with NVDA weaker but broader Semis are up small. Paramount Global jumped 10% in US premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported that Skydance Media had reached a preliminary agreement to buy National Amusements Inc. and merge with Paramount.  Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Dell (DELL) advances 1.5% in premarket trading after BofA adds the personal computer maker to its US 1 list.
  • Permian Resources (PR) shares advance 0.6% in premarket trading after the oil and natural gas company was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital Markets.

With US stocks propelling higher by the day, the MSCI world index measuring both developed and emerging markets is also at a record high, evidence of the relentless euphoric sentiment toward stocks. The S&P 500 has added more than $16 trillion in value from a closing low in October 2022, thanks to solid earnings, the craze over artificial intelligence and expectations of lower borrowing costs.

After yesterday’s dovish speech by Jerome Powell at the Sintra central bank conclave, today investors will parse US initial jobless claims and ADP employment data among other readings on the economy for more clues on the policy outlook. Powell acknowledged Tuesday that the central bank has made “quite a bit of progress” in reducing inflation but emphasized officials need more evidence before lowering rates. Markets are also gearing up for the all-important US payrolls reading due Friday. Economists expect the report to show employers added about 190,000 workers in June and the unemployment rate likely held at 4%.

“We are in a situation where momentum in the US equity market is still strong, we are seeing inflation tick lower and increasing odds of a Fed cut in September, all of which should be sufficient to keep the rally going,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Co.

“There are clear signs the US economy and labor markets are slowing and that should be confirmed by Friday’s payrolls data, laying the path for the Fed to cut in September,” Zurich Insurance’s Miller said.

In Europe, much of the spotlight continues to be on politics, on the eve of elections in the UK. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7%, led by gains in technology and mining shares, while in France, the benchmark CAC 40 index rallied 1.6% as anti-National Rally parties attempt to prevent Marine Le Pen’s far-right group from achieving an absolute majority in the final round of legislative voting on Sunday. Shares of BE Semiconductor Industries NV soared 9.1% in Amsterdam after analysts wrote that Apple Inc. could adopt the Dutch chip-equipment firm’s technology as soon as next year. Here are some other notable European movers:

  • Diageo shares rises as much as 3.2%, the most about five months, after Citi upgraded the spirit maker to buy, saying it is nearing an inflection point and full-year results should be a clearing event for what continues to be an “attractive compounding growth story”
  • BE Semiconductor shares advance as much as 7.9% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker to a Street-high, saying that Apple could adopt the company’s hybrid bonding technology in its chips as soon as 2H next year
  • Galderma shares gain as much as 2.9%, the most since May, after Vontobel initiated coverage of the Swiss skincare firm with a buy recommendation and a Street-high price target, saying its future growth will be supported by two upcoming drug launches
  • BPER Banca shares gain as much as 4% after main shareholder Unipol underwrites share swap with 4.77% of the bank’s capital as underlying. Equita analysts said that Unipol’s move confirms its commitment
  • Drax shares jump as much as 5.8%, the most since February, after Barclays raised its price target to a new Street high, citing the UK power utility’s “forgotten upside potential” and predicting it will get a much-needed government subsidy contract
  • Grenke shares rise as much as 13%, the most since October 2022, after the German leasing finance provider reported its strongest quarter ever in terms of new business
  • Text shares soar as much as 12% after the Polish chatbot tools provider reported sales rising 12% y/y in the quarter through June, fueled by higher average revenue per user
  • JD Sports shares fell as much as 4.4% after the stock received its only negative analyst rating. Barclays downgraded the sports apparel retailer to underweight from equal-weight, citing its high exposure to Nike
  • PostNL shares drop as much as 7.2% to the lowest in more than four years after the delivery company was downgraded by UBS, which warned that downside risks to consensus look underestimated
  • Bpost shares drop as much as 11% to an all-time low after the postal delivery company gave guidance that was below expectations, prompting analysts to cut their price targets

Europe suffered the biggest reduction in overweight positions among regions globally in June, reversing the buying trend seen in May, Goldman said. Funds cut the most exposure to financial stocks, particularly banks, with net selling for that sector the largest since November 2021.

Earlier,  Asian equities advanced, driven by gains in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as the region’s technology stocks saw a rally tracking a similar move in the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% in a fourth straight day of gains, its longest stretch since May. Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell’s remarks that a disinflationary trend is resuming in the US boosted risk appetite in the region. A MSCI gauge of technology stocks added 1.3%. Japanese stocks climbed for the fourth session, their longest run since March. Equities also gained in South Korea, Singapore and Australia.  “A bearish move in the US dollar and a halt in US Treasury yields’ upside may keep the risk environment supportive in the Asia session,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market analyst at IG Asia. Yeap expects traders to limit risk-taking ahead of a holiday-shortened session in the US later Wednesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index eased as much as 0.1%; the US currency stumbled versus the euro, which gained for the sixth-straight day, its best run since March, on growing confidence that France’s far-right may fail to win a majority at second-round general vote later in the week USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 161.94; the yen’s slide to its weakest since 1986 raises intervention concerns

In rates, treasuries are narrowly mixed with the curve flatter. On the day long-end yields are higher by ~2bp and 2-year yields are lower by ~2bp. German and UK curves are also flatter on the day following firm services PMI readings. French government bonds rise for a second day amid reports that political parties were maneuvering to block an absolute majority for the far-right after Sunday’s second-round vote. 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are tighter by ~2bp on the day. US 10-year yield around 4.43% is little changed vs Tuesday’s close with gilts outperforming by 1.5bp in the sector, leading gains across European bonds.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% against the greenback to a multi-decade low near 162.

In commodities, oil prices pared an earlier gain to trade little changed, with WTI near $82.90 a barrel. Spot gold adds $13 to around $2,343/oz. Crypto is under pressure this morning, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below the $60k mark as prediction markets now see Kamala replacing Joe Biden.

Looking at today’s barrage of data, the US economic data slate includes June Challenger job cuts (7:30am), June ADP employment change (8:15am), May trade balance, weekly jobless claims (8:30am), June final S&P Global services PMI (9:45am), May factory orders and June ISM services index (10am).

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,567.50
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $86.49/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,345.59
  • US Dollar Index down 0.10% to 105.62
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 513.40
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 182.08
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 568.81
  • Nikkei up 1.3% to 40,580.76
  • Topix up 0.5% to 2,872.18
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 17,978.57
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,982.38
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 79,914.27
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,739.88
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,794.01
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.63%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0761
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $86.48/bbl

Top Overnight News

  • European stocks rose, tracking a record S&P 500 close, on optimism about US interest-rate cuts after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is getting back on a downward path
  • Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is scrambling to get an absolute majority in the final round of France’s legislative election Sunday as rival parties are maneuvering to keep the far-right party out of power
  • SoftBank’s stock rose 1.5% to a new lifetime high on Wednesday, a vote of confidence in Masayoshi Son’s ambitions to ramp up investments in AI and semiconductors
  • Venture dealmaking is coming back — at least, for artificial intelligence companies. Last quarter, US venture capitalists spent $55.6 billion backing startups, up by about half from a year earlier quarter and the spendiest quarter in two years, according to PitchBook data
  • An activist short-seller, a New York hedge fund, a Mauritius-based investment vehicle and a broker tied to a big Indian bank: All played a role in one of the world’s most damaging short-seller attacks.
  • Traders in the $27 trillion Treasury market are betting on higher long-term bond yields as Wall Street starts to adjust for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House
  • US judge postponed former President Trump’s sentencing in the hush-money case to September 18th.
  • Skydance has acquired around 50% of Paramount Global’s (PARA) controlling shares at around USD 15.00/shr, CNBC reports citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes amid softer yields and dovish-leaning comments from Fed Chair Powell, although gains were capped and China lagged on weak Caixin PMI data. ASX 200 kept afloat amid strength in the commodity-related sectors and with some encouragement from the better-than-expected Retail Sales and Building Approvals data from Australia. Nikkei 225 was underpinned and further extended above the 40,000 level on the back of recent currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed in which the former attempted to reclaim the 18,000 status, while the mainland bucked the trend after Caixin Services PMI data disappointed and amid lingering global frictions as European officials alleged that China is building and testing lethal attack drones for Russia.

Top Asian News

  • EU reportedly targets China’s Temu and Shein with proposals for an import duty, according to FT.
  • South Korean President Yoon said they have prepared KRW 25tln worth of support measures for small businesses and will provide tax benefits to companies actively raising dividend payouts, while they will address structural problems causing high local food prices.
  • China’s PCA says Chinese prelim retail car sales (Jun) -8% Y/Y, 2% M/M.

European bourses are higher across the board as the region catches up to the Wall St. handover and continues generally strong APAC performance, Stoxx 600 +0.8%. CAC 40, +1.1%, the European outperformer as the agreement between ENS & NFP has seemingly held regarding candidate withdrawals into Sunday’s second round. No overarching bias or theme across the sectors; Tech gains after broker activity on ASM International & BE Semiconductor while Insurance once again lags amid the progression of Beryl. Stateside, futures flat and holding onto Tuesday’s gains into a packed and frontloaded session on account of Independence Day on Thursday, ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%.

Top European News

  • Former UK PM Boris Johnson joined the Tory election campaign and said that current PM Sunak asked him to join the campaign, while he compared their differences as “trivial” to the threat of Labour leader Starmer, according to The Sun’s Political Editor Harry Cole.
  • Riksbank Minutes (Jun): Overall, the minutes chime with the tone of the last meeting which had two/three H2-2024 cuts as a possibility with the main potential headwinds being the SEK and inflation (in the context of May’s hotter print). Notably, only Breman was explicit in saying the next cut and first H2 one is likely to occur in August.

FX

  • DXY under pressure and holding near the 105.59 low with peers generally firmer as the USD continues to feel the weight of Powell’s remarks and looks to the mentioned data deluge.
  • Euro modestly firmer but EUR/USD yet to revisit Tuesday’s 1.0776 peak. Limited reaction to the Final PMIs and nothing noteworthy from the Sintra conference thus far; heft OpEx in EUR/USD.
  • GBP similarly a touch firmer against the USD but once again looses out slightly against the EUR, Cable at its 1.2701 peak. No reaction to PMIs as we count down to Thursday’s UK election.
  • USD/JPY hit another multi-decade peak of 161.97 overnight, action since limited with nothing of note from Japanese officials on the move.
  • Antipodeans firmer given the risk tone, though NZD/USD us yet to re-test the 0.61 handle.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1312 vs exp. 7.2633 (prev. 7.1291).

Fixed Income

  • OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed to 67.8bps at best, though still circa. 20bps above pre-election levels; a narrowing which comes as the centre-left deal to prevent a RN majority appears to be holding with Ipsos remarking that an “absolute majority seems very unlikely” for RN.
  • Bunds spent the first half of the session near the unchanged mark before fading on the PMIs and then slipping below Tusesady’s130.28 base but with still someway to go before the figure itself.
  • No real reaction to the new German 2034 Bund auction, with the results perhaps marginally softer than is usually the case but not necessarily surprising given the trick environment it entered.
  • Gilts await Thursday’s UK election, fleeting downticks on upwardly revised final PMIs but the benchmark is yet to meaningfully deviate from 97.00
  • Stateside, Treasuries lower but above Tuesday’s 109-07 base as we enter a packed and frontloaded session on account of Thursday’s US Independence Day; data, FOMC Minutes and 3,10,30yr size announcements the highlights.
  • Germany sells EUR 4.072bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.60% 2034 Bund: b/c 1.9 x, average yield 2.63%, retention 18.56%.
  • Japanese gov’t is targeting issuing a new floating-rate note from FY26, with two- & five-year maturities seen as options, via Reuters citing sources; to mitigate investors’ risk from increasing yields.

Crude

  • Crude benchmarks began the session firmer and were propped up by the much larger-than-expected draw in headline crude inventories, though this was offset somewhat by the gasoline build. Thereafter, benchmarks waned from best with specifics light into the US morning. WTI Aug and Brent Sep at lows of USD 62.77/bbl and USD 86.23/bbl respectively.
  • Precious metals benefit from USD pressure and after the dovish commentary from Powell on Tuesday. XAU above the USD 2338/oz 50-DMA with the next point of significance being USD 2368/oz from 21st June.
  • Base metals surged given APAC strength and the above while the likes of iron ore among the outperformers as participants cite supportive near-term demand and lingering expectations of Chinese stimulus.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.2mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate -0.7mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +0.4mln.
  • Lyondellbasell (LYB) Houston Refinery (268k BPD) reports flaring.
  • NHC says Hurricane Beryl is expected to bring life-threatening winds and a storm surge to Jamaica later today, Cayman Islands tonight/Thursday.

Geopolitics

  • Israeli army said it shelled Hezbollah positions last night in the areas of Blida, Yaron, Tair Harfa and Aitaroun in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Palestinian Health Ministry said four were killed in an Israeli strike on West Bank’s Nur Shams Refugee Camp, according to Reuters.
  • US State Department said it has seen disturbing reports of the Israeli army’s use of civilians as human shields and it called on Israel again to investigate quickly and ensure accountability for any abuses and violations, according to Al Jazeera.
  • China is building and testing lethal attack drones for Russia with Chinese and Russian companies said to be developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, according to European officials familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications -2.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 07:30: June Challenger Job Cuts YoY 19.8%, prior -20.3%
  • 08:15: June ADP Employment Change, est. 165,000, prior 152,000
  • 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 233,000
    • June Continuing Claims, est. 1.84m, prior 1.84m
  • 08:30: May Trade Balance, est. -$76.5b, prior -$74.6b
  • 09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.1, prior 55.1
    • June S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 54.6
  • 10:00: May Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
    • May Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • May Durables-Less Transportation, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
    • May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.6%, prior -0.6%
    • May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.5%
  • 10:00: June ISM Services Index, est. 52.6, prior 53.8
  • 14:00: June FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got Q3 off to a mixed start yesterday, with a pretty divergent performance across countries and asset classes. On the positive side, there was a noticeable recovery for French assets after the election results, with the Franco-German 10yr spread (-5.8bps) seeing its biggest decline since President Macron announced the election last month. However, that came alongside more weakness in US markets after investors became increasingly focused on the fiscal outlook, with the presidential election now just four months away. That saw the 10yr Treasury yield rise a further +6.5bps to 4.461%, building on its +11.0bps move on Friday and closing +20.3bp higher than the lows that came after Friday’s soft core PCE. So had you got that data print right in advance you may have got bond markets totally wrong. I thought some of it was month-end shenanigans from Friday but a narrative has built up that due to the aftermath of the Trump/Biden debate, markets should be pricing in a higher probability of a Trump victory and larger fiscal deficits.

In terms of the French situation, the main news yesterday (as we discussed 24 hours ago) was that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally slightly underperformed the opinion polls from before the election. But DB’s economist thinks that their underperformance relative to polls likely reflected stronger participation in urban areas to some degree, in seats that the National Rally were unlikely to win anyway. He writes (link here) that the probability of a National Rally government (minority or majority) is actually now marginally higher than it was before round 1, and there is also the possibility that other MPs on the right or centre-right could implicitly support a minority government. So a slightly different view to the prevailing market narrative yesterday that a far-right majority was less likely. The house view is still a hung parliament though.

The second round will take place on Sunday, but the other parties are now attempting to keep the National Rally from gaining power, and there are negotiations on candidates standing down from districts where they wish to give another party a better chance of victory. For reference, candidates who receive more than 12.5% of registered voters can go forward to the second round, but there is a deadline tonight (6pm CET) for candidates to file papers to go forward, so it’s possible that those who did pass the threshold will withdraw, particularly if they came in third place. So once we know who’s actually standing where, we should get a better idea of the likely prospects going into Sunday’s vote.

In terms of the market reaction, there was an initial surge for equities at the open, with the CAC 40 up by +2.79% first thing. But those gains were then pared back, and the index “only” closed +1.09% higher. Other indices also advanced in Europe, but the gains were concentrated in the south, with Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.70%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+1.04%) both outperforming. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, the gap between French and German yields tightened back to 74bps, which is its tightest level in over two weeks, whilst Italian and Spanish spreads also fell. Nevertheless, yields still moved higher across the continent, and in absolute terms, the French 10yr yield (+5.1bps) was up to 3.349%, which is its highest closing level since November, whilst those on 10yr bunds were up by +10.7bps on the day. The US bond move from Friday afternoon was a big influence.

Well after the European close, ECB President Lagarde spoke at the annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal. She struck a slightly more hawkish tone, saying that Europe’s “still facing several uncertainties regarding future inflation, especially in terms of how the nexus of profits, wages and productivity will evolve and whether the economy will be hit by new supply-side shocks.” She added, “ It will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above-target inflation have passed.” There is now 38.2bps of cuts priced in by year-end, down -5.0bps from Friday’s close.

As discussed earlier, US Treasuries continued their significant last 36 hour decline from Friday as investors moved to focus on the upcoming election and the fiscal implications. That led to another fairly sharp curve steepening yesterday, with the 2s10s curve up +6.1bps to -29.9bps, having been at -49.6bps just one week earlier. For what it’s worth, this week is actually the second anniversary of the 2s10s inversion in July 2022, so we’re on track for yet more records in terms of this being the longest ever 2s10s inversion. And in terms of the specific moves, the 2yr yield was largely unchanged (+0.2bps) at 4.755%, but the 10yr yield saw a larger +6.5bps move to 4.461%. With the attention on the long end, fed futures were barely changed as the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was up just +1.0bps to 45bps. This morning in Asia, yields on the 10yr USTs have edged back down -2bps to around 4.44% as I type.

Risk appetite in the US was dampened by some weak data prints, with the ISM manufacturing for June falling to 48.5 (vs. 49.1 expected). Moreover, the subcomponents for new orders (49.3) and employment (49.3) were in contractionary territory as well so there was little respite in the report. The bright spot came on the inflation side, with the prices paid component down to a 6-month low of 52.1. That backdrop meant that US equities were mixed with tech once again saving the day with the Magnificent 7 surging +1.76%, even as the small-cap Russell 2000 was down -0.86%. The S&P 500 split the difference and was up +0.27%, even while 76% of the index members were lower on the day. S&P 500 (-0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.38%) futures are both trading notably lower this morning.

In Asia, the Nikkei (+0.38%) is trading higher with the Hang Seng (+0.57%) also gaining after returning from a public holiday. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are struggling to gain traction with the CSI (-0.08%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.04%) relatively flat. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (-0.82%) is losing ground after a busy morning of inflation data. Indeed, South Korea’s inflation cooled more than expected, rising +2.4% y/y in June (v/s +2.6% expected), its slowest pace since July last year. It followed a +2.7% increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, core CPI came in +2.2% higher in June than a year before, in line with May’s reading.

In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.13%) is weakening to a fresh 38-year low of 161.68 against the dollar despite some verbal intervention from the authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that he is “closely watching FX moves with vigilance” while refraining from commenting on specific levels.

Finally, minutes from the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting indicated that board members discussed raising interest rates but eventually decided to hold rates steady at 4.35%. The board emphasized the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation, noting that May’s inflation data hadn’t been enough to derail its inflation outlook of returning to target in 2026. However these minutes are slightly dated as a week after the meeting we had a strong CPI print. So our economists believe an August hike is likely.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for June, along with the unemployment rate for May. Over in the US, there’s also the JOLTS report of job openings for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 08:15

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Identification With Democrats Plummets In The US

Identification With Democrats Plummets In The US

Identification with the Democratic Party has plummeted in the U.S. to the lowest recorded levels, according to a Gallup database.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, even before the first presidential debate featuring both current President Joe Biden and his challenger in the 2024 elections, Donald Trump, only 23 percent of U.S. respondents surveyed by the organization said in June that they identified as Democrats.

This is fewer than ever since continuous records of the question started at the organization in 2004.

Infographic: Identification With Democrats Plummets in the U.S. | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Identification with the Republican Party was not much higher in June of this year at only 25 percent (while identifying as an Independent became much more popular).

However, a look at Gallup’s records for previous years shows that Democrats mostly had a leg up when it comes to party identification. This applied both in June 2016, the year of Donald Trump’s election, and throughout his presidency.

Only as recently as 2022, while Biden was already in office, did Republicans catch up and the finally overtake Democrats in some months, for example June 2024.

However, the low support for established parties and the heightened will to identify as an Independent still speaks to a level of resignation with both established U.S. parties.

Identification with Republicans reached its lowest point over the last 20 years in October 2013 at just 20 percent and also hit 22 percent during the Trump administration in January 2018.

Meanwhile, the lowest Democratic party affiliation had ever dropped before was 24 percent in September 2022 and September 2023, both under Biden.

While Biden’s approval hit 38 percent in June, this is not so far removed from Trump’s 39 percent in June 2020 at the same time in his presidency that Biden is at now – though that was in the middle of the COVID lockdowns.

Biden has received heavy criticism for his performance at the debate on Thursday – including from inside his own party – for speaking at times incoherently and rambling.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 07:45

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Nine Ukrainian Jets Destroyed In 24 Hours, Russia’s Military Says

Nine Ukrainian Jets Destroyed In 24 Hours, Russia’s Military Says

The Kremlin has continued to signal to the West that the dozens of US F-16 fighter jets currently being prepped to transfer to Ukraine are as good as dead on arrival. Past weeks of media reports have indicated that a handful of European countries will begin sending F-16s by some point this summer, when Ukrainian pilots complete their training on the advanced fighter.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it launched a major attack on an airfield in central Ukraine, which destroyed and damaged seven Ukrainian fighter jets. The location was identified as the Myrhorod airbase in the country’s Poltava region. Two more were reported shot down in a separate operation.

Illustrative image of prior jet shootdown.

“As a result of the Russian army’s strike, five active Su-27 multi-purpose fighters were destroyed and two under repair were damaged,” the military announced on Telegram.

The statement was accompanied by aerial footage, and the whole attack was also confirmed by a Ukrainian official who described that the strike happened, but the extent of destruction was exaggerated by the Russian side.

“There are losses, but not at all like the enemy claims because they always do this since the beginning of the invasion,” Ukraine’s former Air Force speaker Yuriy Ihnat stated.

He additionally said to Reuters that Russian reconnaissance drones provided a key role in the attack on Myrhorod and present a “very serious threat” – as they were able to spot the Ukrainian aircraft parked on the ground. “It flies and reports everything in real-time, and then Iskander arrives in a couple of minutes. It is obvious,” Ihnat explained.

In total Russia’s defense ministry (MoD) said its forces had taken out nine Ukrainian fighter jets on Tuesday over a 24 hour period, as two had reportedly been shot down while in flight. According to statements in TASS

Russian forces struck nine Ukrainian Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter jets over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday.

“Also, nine Ukrainian Air Force aircraft were hit over the past 24 hours. A combined strike by precision weapons against an airfield destroyed five and damaged two Su-27 planes of the enemy’s Air Force. Another two Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27 aircraft were shot down by Russian air defenses,” the ministry said in a statement.

Last Thursday the Russian military had announced that it struck airbases in Ukraine which were set up to eventually house Western-supplied jets.

Below is a reconnaissance clip of Myrhorod airfield featured by state media:

The MoD said it used long-range sea-based weapons to attack “airfield infrastructure of Ukraine, planned to accommodate aircraft from Western countries,” according to state media. This included the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles alongside drones, the statement indicated.

TASS has also issued the following battlefield data on Tuesday: “In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 625 Ukrainian warplanes, 276 helicopters, 27,121 unmanned aerial vehicles, 535 surface-to-air missile systems, 16,478 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,362 multiple rocket launchers, 11,215 field artillery guns and mortars and 23,238 special military motor vehicles since the start of the special military operation, the ministry reported.” These huge losses on the Ukrainian side have resulted in Ukrainian officials essentially begging for more arms and equipment from NATO countries at a faster rate.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 02:45

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Macron’s Loss Isn’t An End, It’s A Beginning

Macron’s Loss Isn’t An End, It’s A Beginning

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

To say that I’ve been waiting on pins and needles for the past year or so is putting it mildly. I’m sure I’m not the only one.

This fake World Davos Made in which fat is beautiful, sloth is a virtue, and pedophilia the pinnacle of human love, should have you just a teensy bit anxious.

When we look up and see everything beautiful being systematically subverted, cheapened, or just plain vandalized it’s hard to maintain your compassion, even if it was warranted…. which it isn’t.

Today I come back to write my first public essay in more than a month and we’re a couple of days away from arch-Globalist Emmanuel Macron of France getting trounced by both Marine Le Pen and a fractious left-wing coalition.

Heading into this weekend’s run-offs it’s pretty obvious that Macron’s party, En Marche, will be relegated to the ashbin of history. Macron was a fake populist sold to us by Davos nearly a decade ago to blunt the rise of Le Pen then.

And it really doesn’t matter this time what political ring-fencing the various commies in France do to freeze out a National Front majority in the French Parliament. The tide has turned against them.

It’s not coming back. Just like it has in the UK, the US, the Netherlands, Italy and the rest of the so-called post-Enlightenment West.

That idea right there, “post-Enlightenment,” where we began to reject God for modernity and the supremacy of human reason over the vastness of our ignorance about how the Universe worked, is the key to what’s happening.

And the minute I began writing about Macron I was hit with the memory of Notre Dame burning.

The library was on fire. And the jackals brayed about how great it was.

This happened on Macron’s watch. And he cried crocodile tears for it, as all true Marxist scumbags like him do.

Because they can only have the facsimile of emotions since we all live in a simulation anyway.

At the time I called it a “Symbol of Failing Culture.” But it’s far more than that. Notre Dame’s burning, deliberate or otherwise, was emblematic of how careless our caretakers were about preserving our past.

So obsessed with their pathetic modernity they expropriated nearly all the wealth of France for decades to elevate sloth and neglect beauty while becoming openly hostile to their own history. Their contempt for history was on full display as their rage at religion overwhelmed their basic humanity.

What’s worse to me is descendants of those that built Notre Dame cheering this event because they’ve been inculcated to hate religion of all forms by their Marxist education.

They’ve been effectively immunized against feeling anything but contempt for themselves and their history.

History is history. It doesn’t have an agenda. It exists, for better or worse, to remind us that who we are today is the sum total of who we were then.

Marxists fundamentally believe in creating a man without a history, without connection to his past to mold him into the New Soviet Man.

Argue with me about this all you want Bernie Bros, Corbynites and Richard Wolff acolytes, this is the point of this French post-modernist “life is an absurd simulation” nonsense. It’s simply an excuse to justify the inherent envy at the core of all Marxist thought.

It meant something to millions of people, if not billions.

Its burning was truly a moment of them destroying something beautiful even if the fire was an accident.

Notre Dame was a thing to be envied, for sure. A place of stunning beauty and achievement. A thing worth preserving through the centuries. Of course it had to be destroyed.

The contempt of Macron and his history-challenged fellow travelers at anyone not down with the Commintern was on full display back then.

While they think we shouldn’t have histories, they forget that we have memories.

So, there should be zero surprise today about what has happened at the French ballot box.

Macron and Davos will do everything they can to extend and pretend that they are still in control in France. They may even succeed in saving Macron. In doing so they may even destroy what’s left of France, sacrificing it on the altar of the European Union, but for what?

A meta-stable alliance held together by the scolding of a bloodless German vampire like Ursula Von der Leyen? How long do you think the French go from Yellow Vests to the guillotine?

Because, last I checked, that’s a part of their history Macron is also trying to deny.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/03/2024 – 02:00

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How Financial Surveillance Threatens Our Democracies: Part 1

How Financial Surveillance Threatens Our Democracies: Part 1

Authored by Alexandre Stachtchenko via Bitcoin Magazine,

When they descended into coal mines, miners would take a caged canary with them.

The toxic gasses, notably carbon monoxide, that accumulate in these places and pose a deadly risk to miners, would kill the canaries before the miners.

This information made them aware of the danger, enabling them to evacuate before it was too late.

On May 14, 2024, Alexey Pertsev, a software developer who built an open-source tool to preserve online privacy, was found guilty of money laundering and sentenced to more than 5 years in prison by a Dutch court.

In the court’s decision, the following can be read:

“The tool developed by the suspect and his co-authors combines maximum anonymity and optimal concealment techniques with a serious lack of identification functionalities. Therefore, the tool cannot be characterized as a legitimate tool that has been inadvertently used by criminals. By its nature and operation, the tool is specifically intended for criminals.”

Seeking to preserve one’s privacy is thus at worst proof of criminality, at best complicity in a crime. A threshold has been crossed.

Unfortunately, it is likely that this case will generate little empathy and interest, as the person involved worked in the crypto industry, and the tool developed, Tornado Cash, was intended to preserve transaction confidentiality.

However, it would be a grave mistake to consider this an isolated incident limited to a fledgling industry for which the public has little affection.

This is our canary in the coal mine.

It has stopped singing and is dying. If we do not react, all the miners will perish. Cryptos are an early and glaring revealer of an insidious phenomenon that has been eroding our liberal democracies for about thirty years and is reaching a point of no return.

Despite the lack of evidence of their effectiveness, financial surveillance measures continue to be regularly reinforced, defying all democratic rules and requirements: the primacy of secrecy, freedom as a norm, the principle of proportionality of rights limitations, technological neutrality, presumption of innocence… Preemptive control prior to any offense becomes the norm, the enforcement of law becomes selective and arbitrary, bank account closures take on the appearance of censorship and financial suffocation, and property rights are reduced to a mere shadow.

The fight against money laundering and terrorist financing has degenerated into collective hysteria worthy of authoritarian or even totalitarian regimes, to the point of criminalizing a fundamental and constitutional right: privacy. The famous American computer engineer Phil Zimmermann warned us in 1991: “if privacy is outlawed, only outlaws will have privacy.”

Far from being a “crypto” issue, this shift away from liberal democracy concerns everyone. There are numerous examples in regimes known for their democracy, spanning from India to the United Kingdom, and from Canada to France.

Note: If the crypto part does not interest you, you can proceed directly to part II.

I. LESSONS FROM THE CANARY

1. THE UNITED STATES INVOLVES ITSELF

Less than a year ago, the arrest of the Tornado Cash developers had already legitimately caused quite a stir. But the scope of the case, limited to the crypto world, perceived as a den of terrorists and money launderers, had quickly confined the indignation to a small group of insiders.

In April 2024, American and European public authorities, emboldened by this success, continued to move forward in a worrying direction.

Several events occurred almost simultaneously. The arrest of the developers of the Bitcoin wallet developers of Samourai Wallet, by the FBI in cooperation with the IRS (the American tax authority), with the guilty cooperation of European authorities, kicked things off. Their crime would be to have “conspired to launder money” and to have “operated an unlicensed money transfer business”. They face 20 years’ imprisonment for the first charge and 5 years for the second. By comparison, the maximum irreducible life sentence in France is 30 years.

Following this was an FBI notice urging all Americans not to use “money transmitting businesses” that do not collect their identity and are not registered. And the Federal Bureau continued by threatening to freeze all funds that had been mixed with funds obtained through illegal means.

To better understand the absurdity of such an announcement by the FBI, let us transpose the reasoning into the physical world, and highlight two major issues.

The first concerns the accusation of operating an unlicensed money transfer business.

Samourai Wallet is a company that provides Bitcoin wallets with enhanced transaction privacy. It does not operate transactions on behalf of its clients; it provides the wallet software. In the physical world, their equivalent would be a leather craftsman who crafts leather wallets enabling their users to store cash. He facilitates cash management but has no say in how the wallet owners spend their cash.

Here, the U.S. federal services conflate and lump together a large bank that operates transactions on behalf of its clients and a leather craftsman, holding the latter responsible for how his clients use their cash.

How far can we go with this line of reasoning? To ATMs? To the people at the Central Bank who print these bills? To the lumberjacks who produce the wood used for the paper of the bills?

Similarly, should we hold a carpenter responsible for what his clients decide to put in the furniture they make? Or an architect if the house they build ends up being used for drug trafficking?

It quickly becomes apparent that this conflation is completely absurd. A wallet creator is not responsible for what the wallet owner decides to do with the money stored in it. Being part of the cash or cash storage value chain should in no way imply responsibility for its final use, as there is no limit to this reasoning.

This question was actually raised 20 years ago regarding peer-to-peer exchanges, which allow multiple people to exchange information directly in a decentralized manner. This communication protocol and the software that enable it are sometimes used to commit offenses, particularly against intellectual property rights. However, despite attempts to criminalize the tool itself4, European5 and American6 courts have ruled in favor of technological neutrality, stating that the software in question allows both legal and illegal exchanges and that their providers are not responsible for the use made by third parties. The case law then focused on the responsibility of each individual involved in a potentially illegal activity, acquitting some individuals due to lack of evidence of their criminal intent7. These judicial solutions are obviously in line with the normal exercise of fundamental rights.

The second issue lies in the threat of fund blocking.

Freezing any money mixed with funds obtained through illegal means would be equivalent to arresting anyone whose bills, whether in their leather wallet or pocket, have passed through the wrong hands.

In 2009, a university study covered by CNN showed that 90% of American dollar bills carry traces of cocaine, and up to 100% in some major cities. This helps us better understand the absurdity of the FBI’s threat: almost all the cash in the world has already passed through the wrong hands. Should all cash holders be imprisoned? Of course not.

Following these absurd coercive actions, on 26 April 2024, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York published the government’s rationale against Roman Storm, the lead developer of the privacy software Tornado Cash. The author insists, considering Tornado Cash as a “money transmitting business.”

According to this argument, “the definition of “money transmitting” in Section 1960 does not require the money transmitter to have ‘control’ of the funds being transferred. […] For instance, a USB cable transfers data from one device to another […].”

A very broad definition of a “money transmitting business” that would even include USB cables, according to their own admission. At this rate, the question will soon become “who is not a money transmitter?”

Here, the DOJ (Department of Justice) is so ambitious that it goes against the guidelines provided by FinCen (Financial Crime Enforcement Network, a bureau of the U.S. Treasury Department). In other words, the U.S. government does not agree with itself, which indicates a certain uneasiness.

In 2013, FinCen explained that software developers were not “money transmitters” (“The production and distribution of software, in and of itself, does not constitute acceptance and transmission of value, even if the purpose of the software is to facilitate the sale of virtual currency.”).

In 2019, following an inquiry regarding certain programmable features on Bitcoin (Time-locked and multi-signature), FinCen reiterated that the partial control that could be exercised by wallet developers was not sufficient to qualify them as “money transmitters” (“the person participating in the transaction to provide additional validation at the request of the owner does not have totally independent control over the value.”).

2. EUROPE AT THE FOREFRONT OF AN ILLIBERAL SHIFT

Beyond the opportunistic qualifications of various parties and to return more simply to the way the law should be applied in a liberal democracy, let’s recall that cryptocurrency transfers are transfers of electronic communications according to the definition provided by European Union law.

Moreover, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum allow for the exchange of communications that can be qualified as correspondences (the possibilities of exchange are not limited to monetary units). Electronic communications are protected by the right to privacy and personal data protection, and a limitation such as lifting confidentiality or blocking can only be justified if it is necessary for the effective pursuit of a defined objective, in a strictly proportionate manner, particularly in the case of a proven offense and personally committed by the individual whose communication is limited.

The Court of Justice of the European Union has also ruled in this sense, considering that the systematic analysis of communications, even when possible, infringes on the fundamental right to the protection of users’ personal data, in violation of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union. The Court specifies that an injunction to block communications that does not distinguish “between illegal and legal content […] could result in the blocking of communications with legal content” and thus infringe on the freedom of expression and communication. Regarding cryptocurrency transfers, we can also invoke an infringement on the right to property.

It is therefore inconceivable, in a liberal democracy, to ask a private actor to block transactions or other types of communications without being certain of their illegality.

We can note another convenient schizophrenia on the part of the American authorities, which Lyn Alden aptly summarizes by referring to “Schrödinger’s Currency”: Bitcoin is considered as a currency only when it allows for the prosecution of individuals. The rest of the time, it is a speculative tool to which this qualification is denied. Indeed, to apply the definition of “money transmitter,” it is necessary to consider that what is being transmitted (bitcoins) is indeed money. To the point that the government argues that “Bitcoin clearly qualifies as money” in order to prosecute Roman Storm.

Europe regularly engages in this distortion as well, as I had already shown in the justification invoked to include “crypto-assets” in the TFR regulation. Cryptos have indeed appeared in a text that previously targeted exclusively “banknotes and coins, scriptural money, and electronic money.” But to say that Bitcoin is a currency…

Moreover, in Europe, coincidentally, a new regulation was voted on April 25 imposing new financial constraints, still with the laudable objective of combating money laundering.

Among the constraints, we can particularly note a €10,000 cash payment limit across Europe, but also the requirement for digital asset service providers (DASPs) to collect even more information about their clients, including for transactions under €1,000, and for personal wallets, known as “self-custodial,” “self-hosted,” or “un-hosted,” i.e., not managed by a financial intermediary on behalf of third parties. The leather wallets of the digital world.

A small digression into Newspeak here: by imposing the terminology “self-hosted” or “un-hosted,” regulators and legislators are trying to enforce the view that third-party custody is the norm, and self-custody is the exception. This is obviously a dangerous and insidious view, suggesting that wanting to keep one’s own money is suspicious, even though it is part of the normal exercise of freedoms. There are no “un-hosted” or “self-hosted” wallets. There are just wallets, period. And there are third parties who hold wallets on behalf of others.

Returning to the text, let’s casually note that it is particularly precise and imposes know-your-customer (KYC) requirements for transactions under €1,000 only on DASPs, exempting banks and other financial institutions, which handle far larger volumes than DASPs. The proportionality of this amount and this discrimination is not justified.

In addition, there is a ban on supporting enhanced privacy cryptocurrencies. Let us recall here that historical commodity monies (gold, silver, copper, bones, etc.) are anonymous, as is still cash today. The ban is therefore inequitable and strikes under the pretext of its electronic nature. It is again unjustified, although it unacceptably hinders the normal exercise of a freedom since we are talking about its outright extinction (such a disproportion is not admitted by the European Court of Human Rights).

As previously mentioned, all these actions are extremely problematic in several respects.

First, because these constraints are based on no rational reasoning or relevant justification and are simply the result of paranoia related to cryptos, coupled with a KYC model (Know Your Customer, the customer identification processes imposed on financial institutions) that has been elevated to a religion despite the lack of convincing results over several decades. Second, because they disregard the requirements for the protection of fundamental freedoms on which the European Union was built and to which it is subject. Third, because they are counterproductive, meaning they create new threats, the consequences of which are increasingly severe.

3. AN UNFOUNDED PARANOIA

Nearly all texts dealing with the “necessary” regulation of “crypto-assets” have abandoned scientific and legal rigor to the point of never proving the initial assertion from which their reasoning starts: “cryptos are a good means to facilitate money laundering.”

To appreciate this, one only needs to analyze all the texts on the subject issued in recent years. This is an exercise I have already done for the TFR text. Indeed, in the “proportionality” paragraph of the proposed amendment to the regulation, there is a small phrase indicating that, according to the opinion of EU surveillance authorities, “specific” risk-increasing factors have been identified concerning cryptos.

Why is proportionality an extremely important principle in a state governed by the rule of law?

Because the adequacy of a legislative standard or instrument to the pursued objective, i.e., the balance between the infringement on a right and the general interest, is absolutely crucial to avoid authoritarian and liberty-infringing drifts. One cannot hide behind an objective, however commendable, to impose disproportionate restrictions on rights.

For example, one might think that by installing a policeman in everyone’s home, crime would be reduced. The objective may be considered laudable, but the individual rights that would be compromised in the process represent an unacceptable reduction in freedoms. Thus, society decides to tolerate potentially higher crime rates (subject to the risks to freedoms generated by surveillance itself) in order to preserve the rule of law and fundamental freedoms, without which democracy cannot exist.

Conversely, the prohibition of alcohol while driving is a restriction that can be considered proportionate: alcohol consumption is not prohibited, but it is prohibited in situations where its consumption is systematically dangerous for oneself and others. The impacts of such legislation can be monitored by observing the number of accidents, for example. A right has been restricted, certainly, but the general interest prevails since the effectiveness of the measure in relation to an important objective (the preservation of life) can be demonstrated, and the infringement on rights is minimized by limiting the restrictions as much as possible.

In a liberal democracy, freedom is the norm and constraints the exception. It is up to the state, when it wishes to restrict a freedom, to demonstrate that it does not go further than necessary to achieve its objective and that this objective is effectively achieved. Furthermore, the state is obliged to adopt norms to ensure that all persons and institutions, both public and private, respect this rule.

In the case at hand (money laundering and terrorist financing), and despite the assertion that “supervisory authorities have identified specific risk factors,” when one plays the detective wishing to trace back to the source, one realizes that the opinion in question, dating from 2019, itself admits that the so-called “competent authorities” do not have the “knowledge and understanding of these products and assets, which prevents them from carrying out a proper impact assessment.”

It also deflects by referring to another opinion (sic) from the European Banking Authority, which dates back to… 2014. In this “original” opinion, we find a rather laconic analysis: “the phenomenon of Virtual Currencies being assessed has not existed for a sufficient amount of time for there to be quantitative evidence available of the existing risks, nor is this of the quality required for a robust ranking.”

In other words, the TFR regulation, imposing monitoring of all crypto transfers from one provider to another, was built on the basis of two reports. One report stated that there was no evidence to qualify or quantify the risks, while the other admitted that competent authorities lacked the knowledge and understanding to conduct an analysis.

Therefore, concluding the paragraph on the “proportionality” of the TFR regulation by stating that “In accordance with the principle of Proportionality as set out in Article 5 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), this regulation does not exceed what is necessary to achieve its objectives” is questionable at best. Since the risks are not assessed, it seems difficult to characterize the restriction of rights as “proportionate.”

In his fight against FINMA, Alexis Roussel made the same observation for Switzerland. The Swiss National Risk Assessment (NRA) of 201822 regarding money laundering risks in crypto indicates, from its very first sentence, that no cases of terrorism financing related to crypto have been identified, and only rare cases of money laundering. However, the subsequent statement recommends classifying these assets as “high-risk” by their very nature. Specifically, this means that a crypto transaction, even of €10, carries the same level of risk as a €100,000 transfer to an account in Russia. This equivalence is established without democratic processes in Switzerland and without any evidence.

The 2024 NRA23 does not seem to have made much progress and still admits to lacking data to assess risks.

We can clearly see a pattern emerge: anti-money laundering regulations and increasingly stringent data collection requirements are imposed without legitimate basis or factual data to justify their implementation.

A more comprehensive overview has been provided by L0la L33tz in Bitcoin Magazine24, allowing us to supplement this inventory of breaches of the most basic rigor in Europe, as well as by sister institutions of Bretton-Woods, the IMF, and the World Bank, which are true compasses for global decision-makers.

For example, in 2023, the annual report for 2021 from the European Union’s FSRB (the European branch of the Financial Action Task Force, FATF)25, an intergovernmental group established in 1989 to combat money laundering and terrorism financing, was released.

The report begins with the following quote: “It is well known that money launderers have abused cryptocurrencies, initially to transfer and conceal profits generated from drug trafficking. Nowadays, their methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated and on a larger scale.”

Unfortunately, starting an argument with “it is well known” reads the same as an essay that begins with “Throughout history, mankind”: it does not exude the rigor of thorough research.

The report itself admits that a study will be dedicated in 2022 to analyzing money laundering trends in cryptocurrencies, suggesting that it did not exist at the time of writing the report, asserting as an obvious truth what had never been studied.

This report dedicated to the study of money laundering trends in cryptocurrencies has indeed been published26, but it focuses not on the phenomenon itself but rather on the analysis of the implementation of regulations. Regulations that, it is worth noting, are based on unproven money laundering.

Regarding the study of facts and the field, the report interestingly notes that the risk assessment “lacks depth.” It also observes that the majority of regulators lack the tools and expertise necessary to effectively analyze and investigate cases of money laundering and terrorism financing related to “virtual assets.”

The study also takes the same shortcut as the aforementioned Swiss analysis: finding very few cases of money laundering involving virtual assets, it prefers to conclude that it is because more regulation is needed, rather than considering that money laundering is not overrepresented in these assets.

As for the IMF, it’s no better: the latest report on public policies related to crypto-assets (September 2023)27 points out the lack of data on money laundering and terrorism financing risks, stating that “such impacts have not been specifically studied in relation to crypto-assets.”

The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report for 202428 relies on Chainalysis figures and proposes the figure of $1.1 billion received in cryptocurrencies for ransomware globally, which is less than 0.07% of the crypto market capitalization.

The IMF’s twin institution, the World Bank, does not significantly differ from the aforementioned views. In a 2023 report the institution indicates that the issue of “Virtual Assets” was not addressed in the Risk Assessment and calls on public authorities and companies to provide more data regarding these assets.

In its money laundering-related publications for 2020 and 2022 the World Bank simply makes no mention of cryptocurrencies. In its articles  on crypto adoption, the World Bank merely sidesteps the issue by redirecting to FATF papers.

We have come full circle: reports cite each other, asking for more clarity on the figures, but nobody ever conducts the study itself. We rely on FATF, an unelected body, not subject to the rules of a respectable democracy, especially regarding proportionality, as I mentioned earlier.

The objective is no longer to allow a proportionate fight against money laundering but to raise the standards of controls every year, forgetting the reason why these controls were implemented in the first place.

Moreover, financial institutions use the term “compliance” to emphasize the fact that they comply with the expected control standards. The objectives of efficiency and proportionality are no longer at stake. There is no doubt that if FATF recommended putting a policeman behind every computer, legislators would rush to transpose this “best practice” into law…

It’s not even hidden. In the regulation voted on April 24 by the European Union34, the justification for imposing new standards on crypto companies is absolutely not focused on combating money laundering and its effectiveness. Indeed, since MiCA has not even entered into force yet, and the adaptation of the TFR text to cryptos is very recent, how could we conduct a posteriori analysis of the effectiveness of measures that have not yet had an effect and possibly judge that they need to be strengthened?

The reasoning behind the strengthening of controls is in fact much simpler: “Due to rapid technological developments and the advancement in FATF standards, it is necessary to review that approach.”

It is not the evolution of the threat, its assessment, the means used by criminals, or the results of a study, etc., but rather the advancement in FATF standards that leads Europe to align itself.

And the next steps are already laid out: “At the same time, advances in innovation, such as the development of the metaverse, provide new avenues for the perpetration of crimes and for the laundering of their proceeds.”

While the most popular metaverses are still in the experimental stage and barely see a few hundred people connecting simultaneously, and as the hype subsides, they are already being talked about as nothing less than “avenues” for money laundering.

If you’re looking for numbers and analyses, look elsewhere. The imposition of additional surveillance standards relies more on beliefs and perceptions than on facts because no one dares to oppose as a policymaker, risking being equated with a supporter of terrorism or money laundering. It’s therefore a genuine religion, one that becomes almost impossible to question at its core.

The digital transition has been greatly beneficial for states: with the need to be banked to take advantage of financial globalization, leading to the omnipresence of banks, the number of potential targets to monitor has drastically diminished, until it ended up concerning only a handful of banks. The transition from a world in which everyone held their cash at home to one where, at least in the OECD, banking is the norm, entails an inevitable financial intermediation.

In this regard, Bitcoin was a huge wake-up call because it signifies that the entire financial regulation of the past 30 years is obsolete, as it is based on an assumption that is no longer valid, namely the need for a financial intermediary to conduct transactions in the digital world.

In tomorrow’s world where companies will make wallet-to-wallet payments, who will perform KYC? Will we only realize the absurdity of the model when half the planet is working to monitor the other half?

Bitcoin shakes the very foundations of anti-money laundering efforts. And rather than questioning the regulation and its relevance, both in terms of effectiveness and in terms of respect for fundamental freedoms, we prefer the path of blindness, which leads to restricting the use of a technologically neutral tool by arbitrarily impeding innovation, the right to property, and the protection of exchange confidentiality, the importance of which for democracy, notably through encryption of exchanges, has recently been reaffirmed by the European Court of Human Rights35.

Bitcoin is a canary in the mine. A signal that something is slipping away from us, not concerning cryptocurrencies, but concerning the fundamental freedoms of all citizens, threatened by financial surveillance.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/02/2024 – 23:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/GOZkWEN Tyler Durden

Black Americans Still Feel Systematically Held Back

Black Americans Still Feel Systematically Held Back

On July 2, 1964, Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act into law.

To this day, the landmark bill is considered one of the most significant legislative achievements in American history, marking a key milestone in the country’s pursuit of racial equality. The bill outlawed discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex or national origin and mandated the end of racial segregation and discrimination in public accommodations, education and employment.

“We have talked long enough in this country about equal rights. We have talked for one hundred years or more. It is time now to write the next chapter, and to write it in the books of law,” President Lyndon B. Johnson said to members of Congress at the time, urging them to take action and pass the civil rights bill proposed by his predecessor John F. Kennedy, who had been assassinated the year before.

60 years later, Black Americans face a situation that is vastly improved compared to the systematic discrimination of the past, and yet, many racial disparities persist to this day.

As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, whether it’s in terms of incomewealth, education, imprisonment or health outcomes – statistically, Black Americans fare significantly worse than Americans of other races and ethnicities. And while a recent Pew Research survey showed that 52 percent of U.S. adults think that the country has made a great deal or a fair amount of progress in ensuring equal rights for all people over the past 60 years, an equally high share of Americans agree that these efforts haven’t gone far enough.

Infographic: Black Americans Still Feel Systematically Held Back | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Among Black Americans, the view on progress is much more negative with just 30 percent of respondents saying that significant progress has been made and 83 percent thinking that efforts to ensure equal rights have been insufficient.

Further highlighting the degree to which Black Americans feel discriminated against until this day, another Pew survey shows that the majority of Black adults don’t just feel treated unfairly out of negligence, they feel held back systematically across various U.S. institutions.

According to the September 2023 survey of 4,736 Black U.S. adults, 74 percent of respondents think that the U.S. prison system was designed to hold Black people back.

70 percent of respondents think the same of U.S. courts and the judicial system, while more than 60 percent think that policing, the political system and the economic system were designed to disadvantage Black Americans.

“Black Americans’ mistrust of U.S. institutions is informed by history, from slavery to the implementation of Jim Crow laws in the South, to the rise of mass incarceration and more,” the Pew Research Center writes, but it is also informed by personal experience. 75 percent of Black adults say that they’ve personally experienced discrimination or unfair treatment because of their race or ethnicity, and among the victims of discrimination 73 percent say that it made them feel like the system was designed to keep them down.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/02/2024 – 22:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/S5fJjRG Tyler Durden