Israel Says Iran Poised For Major Retaliation; US Deploys Sub, Hurries Carrier Group

In a major shift in its recent assessment of Iran’s intentions, Israeli intelligence reportedly now believes that Iran is preparing a major strike on Israel after all — and that it will happen in the next few days. This comes after Israel had concluded that international pressure and US saber-rattling had persuaded Iran to leave it to Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to strike Israel for blowing up Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant shared his country’s latest assessment with US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin in a Sunday conversation, Axios reported — telling Austin that Iranian actions signify the country is readying a major strike. Also on Sunday, Gallant told an Israeli Defense Forces unit that Iran and Hezbollah “are threatening to harm us in a way they haven’t done in the past.”

Israeli intelligence’s see-sawing assessment reflects an ongoing debate inside the Iranian government, a source with access to the intelligence told Axios: 

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] is pushing for a more severe and broader response than Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel, but the new Iranian president and his advisers believe a regional escalation now wouldn’t serve Iran’s interests, the source said.

A Pentagon spokesman said Austin assured Gallant that America is committed “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”

The strengthening of the US force posture included the deployment of the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command theater. Armed with up to 154 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, the Kings Bay, Georgia-based vessel recently completed joint training exercises in the Mediterranean with force recon Marines and special operations forces, including units from the UK, Norway and Italy. Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, already steaming to the conflict zone laden with F-35C and F/A-18 fighters, to “accelerate its transit“, the Pentagon said.  

Last week, CENTCOM confirmed that an unspecified number of F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets had arrived somewhere in its area of responsibility to “mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or its proxies.” Meanwhile, Russia has been delivering air defense equipment to Iran, including radars and possibly S-400 anti-aircraft missile components.  

See how all this works? Israel provokes Iran with a sensational violation of its sovereignty, and then the US government spends untold millions of dollars to protect Israel from the ensuing response — while putting in harm’s way service members who’ve who’ve been led to believe it’s a way of serving their country. 

If you sense a pattern, it’s because the same scenario unfolded a few months ago, when Israel bombed an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria. When Iran struck back, US forces intervened to destroy the incoming projectiles. Without breaking down costs by country, analysts estimated Iran’s April strike cost only $80 to $100 million, while the defense mounted by the US, Israel and its allies cost around $1 billion.

Talk about asymmetrical warfare.