“I Feel That A Recession Is Going To Hit The US” – Dallas, Richmond, & Philly Fed Surveys Slump

“Honestly, I do not think this economy can withstand the ravages of what it has experienced since 2021.”

‘Four more years’ is not the message being heard from the regional Fed surveys this week as the Philly, Dallas, and Richmond business surveys all slumped deeper into contraction…

Source: Bloomberg

Actual CapEx is weak, New Orders are plunging, and the number of employees is tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, respondents’ expectations regarding future business activity reflected waning optimism in August.

• I feel that a recession is going to hit the U.S.

• Our data supports the thesis that consumer spending is paring back materially. We will start seeing significant negative impacts to our business if spending continues to decline at the current rate through the end of the year. We are very concerned that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to trim rates and that by the time any future cuts begin impacting the economy, consumer spending will be at recession levels.

• It’s curious that news headlines say inflation is going down, but in the design and construction industry, we have not seen prices going down.

• Costs continue to rise while pressure from customers and prospects to decrease prices is continually increasing.

The consumer is hurting…

• Activity is stalled slightly due to increasing personal debt along with [interest] rate uncertainty.

• We continue to see delays in purchase decisions.

• People are out of money. They’re parking their cars and throwing their keys to the dealership or banker, as it’s car or food for the family. And worst of all, I think it has just begun.

• Customers are having difficulty coming up with funds to pay for our services.

• In my 15 years at this location, this summer has been the worst business period I have seen.

Politics came up a lot…

• The biggest issue keeping companies from doing much, in my opinion, is politics.

• Understanding that the psychology of people and the market is a major driver of the economy, the upcoming election will determine the course of American business for the next four years.

• It is increasingly looking like the U.S. has lost its position of strength in geopolitics, and the vacuum is encouraging war and violence, which pose significant risk to international trade and reduce opportunities for U.S. companies. Anti-business, tax and spend rhetoric is not conducive for long-term investments and is going to further reduce U.S. business competitiveness especially against China’s government-supported industries and firms.

• The amount of political noise is disruptive to business owners. Political ads are proliferating, providing little value and worrying business owners.

And finally, one respondent decided a limerick was the appropriate response…

One opines that interest rates a bit too high.
Many borrowers in pain and let out a sigh.
We plead with grace
Bring rates to a place
Where capital formation does not result in a cry!

Get back to work, Mr.Powell!