Month: August 2024

Feminists are once again silent after a female boxer was destroyed in 46 seconds by a biological male masquerading as a woman in an Olympic matchup.

After just 46 seconds and two massive shots to the head, Italy’s Angela Carini threw her helmet onto the mat and abandoned the bout against Algerian tranny Imane Khelif, shouting “This is unjust!”

A couple of punches to the head and it’s all over. /2 pic.twitter.com/6egSrRj51s

— FairPlayForWomen (@fairplaywomen) August 1, 2024

The 25-year-old Carini, and Italian police officer, refused to shake hands with Khelif – who was previously banned from competition by the International Boxing Association after failing testosterone tests to establish gender qualification.

After the Olympic match was stopped, the referee raised Khelif’s hand in the air, while a visibly furious Carini yanked her hand away from the official and stormed off, the Daily Mail reports. She then dropped to her knees and burst into tears, saying she had never felt such strong blows in a match.

IOC allowed this male boxer to fight a woman. He won. Fight abandoned after 46s /4 pic.twitter.com/YwUfZQ6ssb

— FairPlayForWomen (@fairplaywomen) August 1, 2024

“I’m used to suffering. I’ve never taken a punch like that, it’s impossible to continue. I’m nobody to say it’s illegal,” she said after the match.

This is the power punch to the head that finished the match. pic.twitter.com/ssJqe20dza

— FairPlayForWomen (@fairplaywomen) August 1, 2024

“I have never been hit so hard in my life. It’s up to the IOC to judge.”

Italy’s Angela Carini after lasting just 46 seconds against Algeria’s intersex athlete Imane Khelif.

Biological firestorm at Paris Olympics. pic.twitter.com/BQRTF9Dc3m

— Pete Badel (@badel_cmail) August 1, 2024

“I got into the ring to fight. But I didn’t feel like it anymore after the first minute. I started to feel a strong pain in my nose. I didn’t give up, but a punch hurt too much and so I said enough. I’m leaving with my head held high.”

Following the match, Carini spoke with the press where she was clearly distraught.

She said she did not walk away from the fight as a protest against her opponent’s inclusion, but that was a decision for the Olympics to consider.

She was taken away for medical assessment to examine the seriousness of her facial injuries which included a bruised nose.

Carini’s coach in the mix zone after the fight said: ‘I don’t know if her nose is broken. I have to speak with the girl. But many people in Italy tried to call and tell her: ‘Don’t go please: it’s a man, it’s dangerous for you.’  -Daily Mail

On Wednesday evening, the IBA – which banned Khelif – said that the transgender boxer had initially appealed their decision to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, but “but withdrew the appeal during the process, making the IBA decision legally binding.”

The IBA also directly criticized the IOC, saying “The IOC’s differing regulations on these matters, in which IBA is not involved, raise serious questions about both competitive fairness and athletes’ safety,” however the IOC position is that Khelif, and Chinese transgender athlete Lin Tu-ting of Taipei, “are women according to their passports,” who had qualified under the rules of elligibility.

“I repeat that all the competitors comply with the eligibility rules,” said IOC spox Mark Adams. “But what I would say is that this involves real people. And, by the way, this is not a transgender issue. I should make this absolutely clear.”

Sure Mark.

Now, the IOC faces a harsh backlash – including UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, who wrote on X: ” When will this madness stop? Men cannot become women. Why is the British Government not objecting to this?”

JK Rowling also chimed in, writing on X: “What will it take to end this insanity? A female boxer left with life-altering injuries? A female boxer killed?“

My reaction was yours.

— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) August 1, 2024

Absolutely https://t.co/twccUEOW9e

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 1, 2024

If anyone knows Angela Carini, or has a route to her – please reach out. What she’s experienced is a public mugging. Her safety, her very humanity, have been treated with contempt. She will be feeling angry, humiliated, despairing. I would love to be in touch with her. DMs open

— Helen Joyce (@HJoyceGender) August 1, 2024

The Olympics did the South Park meme pic.twitter.com/vddHXQUuHW

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 1, 2024

Satire is now reality pic.twitter.com/c4wmshSzwX

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 1, 2024

And remember…

The people who support this are calling the people who don’t “weird.” https://t.co/jDM7YeWGcD

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) August 1, 2024

 

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose to 249k last week – the highest since last August…

Source: Bloomberg

Texas claims continue to fall as the storm-related surge normalizes…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.877 million last week – the highest since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this ‘bad’ enough news to lock in September rate cuts?

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

A new law that takes effect in the coming academic year allows New York school districts to remove student standardized test scores as a metric for evaluating and sanctioning educators.

Under New York State Senate Bill 9054, signed into law in June by Gov. Kathy Hochul after both houses passed it unanimously, local districts can replace the existing performance evaluation system for teachers and principals with their own framework for annual or periodic reviews.

The measure pertains to tenured educators and new teachers or principals seeking tenure.

The law requires districts to negotiate all changes with unions for teachers and principals before the start of the 2031–2032 academic year.

Districts also can maintain current evaluation practices, a prior state mandate that factors in standardized test results and allows districts to fire teachers based on low scores, if both sides agree to that.

“There was a universal dislike for the old system,” Brian Fessler, government relations director of the New York State School Boards Association (NYSSBA), told The Epoch Times on July 31.

“It was a gotcha, punitive type of system. Districts want a system that ideally improves teacher performance in the classroom. This is a better opportunity to learn, grow, and improve.”

Fessler said some school board members representing districts across the state expressed concerns that teachers will have so much leverage in establishing parameters for their own evaluations that these changes could make it difficult to remove ineffective educators.

But even the critics, he said, agree that “anything will be better” than the current system, which dates back to the Obama administration.

Under the “Race to the Top” initiative to reform public schools, New York and other states hurriedly adopted metric-based educator evaluation frameworks to qualify for federal funding, Fessler said.

He said the pressure of improved test scores against job security played a role in teacher burnout, new teacher recruitment challenges, and the educator shortage issue facing districts today.

“This is one more tool in the toolbox to address teacher shortage,” Fessler said.

“We’re making sure to listen to what they (educators) are telling us.”

During July 19-20 presentations to educators and school board members, NYSSBA reported that about 180,000 additional teachers will be needed nationally over the next decade.

In New York, 50 percent of rural school districts have at least one special education teacher vacancy, and 35 percent of all teachers across the state will be eligible for retirement within five years, according to the presentation slides.

Standardized test scores could be replaced with more classroom observations by district administrators and other types of metrics, including student grades if both sides—educators and school administrations—agree to that.

Educators who receive low scores on their evaluations are subject to performance improvement plans under the new law, and parents can access evaluation scores of their child’s teacher(s) and principal, according to a news release issued by Sen. Shelley B. Mayer (D-White Plains), who co-sponsored the legislation.

“This bill is the culmination of many months of good-faith engagement by our stakeholders and many years of advocacy by teachers, administrators, and our school communities,” she said.

Replacing ‘Race to the Top’ Methods

Other states will be watching New York’s new system closely as their lawmakers seek to replace Race to the Top-era evaluation methods with something more localized.

In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy appointed a 13-member task force to study and evaluate the Garden State’s evaluation system for public school teachers, which was established in 2012, according to the state Department of Education.

In Michigan, beginning this school year, the evaluation period for teachers who previously received satisfactory scores for three consecutive evaluations will increase from annually to once every three years.

Evaluations will be based on a minimum of two, 15-minute classroom observations conducted by administrators during the evaluation year. Additionally, 20 percent of the overall evaluation score must be based on “student growth data” that no longer includes state test scores.

Districts and teacher unions must agree on what student performance indicators can be used as a metric, according to the Michigan Department of Education.

Futures extend on yesterday’s post FOMC gains, but are off session highs, with tech outperforming and the Russell in the red, following the same trend seen late day yesterday. Futures have given up some of their earlier gains potentially on geopolitical headlines as fears of another imminent Iran-Israel conflict swirl, pushing oil to new highs. As of 8:00 am S&P futures are up 0.4% after the index recorded its biggest gain since February in the previous session; Nasdaq futures 0.5% higher led by META 7% higher following earnings with AAPL +60bps, AMZN +1.1% ahead of earnings after the close today. Semis are up small with NVDA +20bps. European stocks are mixed while in Asia, Japanese markets plunge as the yen surges following the inexplicably hawkish BOJ announcement even as Japan’s economy is once again sinking, setting up the endgame of that particular monetary experiment. Bond yields are higher by 2-3bps which is boosting the USD to its best day in 2 weeks. Commodities are bid with Energy and base metals leading. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Mfg, while the market is likely to ignore jobs data ahead of tomorrow’s NFP. AMZN/AAPL headline today’s earnings schedule. 

In premarket trading, META rose more than 6% and contributed to the buoyant mood, extending the life cycle of the AI bubble after it projected to spend more on capex for the full year even though its actual capex spending for Q2 came below estimates. Expect the company’s bullshit to hit a brick wall soon enough. Moderna shares sink 12% in premarket trading after the vaccine maker cut its revenue forecast for the full year. The company also said it expects lower sales of its Covid shot in Europe. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Carvana shares soared as much as 14% in premarket trading on Thursday as the online used-car dealer reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company’s strong unit sales growth.
• Alphatec Holdings shares slide 19% in premarket trading after the medical devices maker reported a larger loss per share in the second quarter than Wall Street had expected. Analysts also highlighted higher cash-burn expectations.
• Aurora Innovation is trading lower by 10% premarket Thursday after the developer of autonomous-driving technology offered up to $350 million in class A shares via Goldman Sachs, Allen, Morgan Stanley late Wednesday.
• Hershey shares slide 7.3% after the chocolate bar maker reported adjusted earnings per share and sales for the second quarter that missed estimates. Organic sales in constant currency plunged 17%, while organic volume/mix declined 18%. Management also tweaked annual forecasts lower.
• Qualcomm shares fell as much as 1.6% in premarket trading on Thursday after analysts note some weakness in the chipmaker’s forecast. The reiteration of the company’s full year outlook is also seen as a potential disappointment.

Jobless claims data due later on Thursday and July’s unemployment print will provide further clues on the state of the US labor market. The Fed signaled on Wednesday that officials are on course to ease monetary policy next month unless inflation progress stalls.

“We’ll see tomorrow with payrolls if the Fed is right, but if it is, then the upward trend on equity markets is likely to continue,”said Amelie Derambure, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi in Paris.

Earlier, the Bank of England lowered rates by 25 basis points to 5.0% in a narrow, 5-4 vote, as expected, while signaling further cautious reductions ahead. The pound extended declines to 0.8% while yields on 10-year gilts lowered six basis points. Investors will be watching earnings from Amazon.com Inc. after the close for further clues about returns from investments in AI. A report from Apple will give indicators of how the iPhone 16 is expected to perform in September.

For equities, the bullish mood in the US didn’t extend to Europe, where the regional benchmark dropped on a series of disappointing results from automakers and Societe Generale SA. The Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.2% after BMW’s earnings slowed and German rival Volkswagen AG’s margins declined, with both automakers suffering from weak demand in China. A poor performance in SocGen’s retail unit sent the stock plummeting 7.7%, dragging down European peers such as HSBC Holdings Plc and UniCredit SpA. The disappointing results serve as further evidence of building pressure for European companies on the back of softer demand and a macro backdrop that remains beset by challenges. The European benchmark has been trading sideways for the past two months after rallying in the year through May. Here are all the notable European movers Thursday:

• Rolls-Royce shares jump as much as 11% to hit a new record high after the aerospace and defence supplier beat expectations in the first half and raised its outlook for the full year
• Shell shares rise as much 2% after its profit and cash flow beat expectations in the second quarter, underpinning another resilient quarter for the oil company, according to RBC Capital Markets
• London Stock Exchange Group rises as much as 3.6% to the highest since March 2021, after reporting total income for the first half that matched consensus estimates
• Next shares jump 8.7%, reaching the highest intraday level on record, after the clothing retailer boosted its pretax profit guidance for the year
• AB InBev rises as much as 3.6% after its results, which saw a beat on organic Ebitda growth even as beer volumes missed expectations
• Smith & Nephew shares rise as much as 11%, the steepest since November 2020, after the British provider of medical devices reported half-year figures
• Haleon shares rise as much as 3.1% to a record high after the consumer health company reported sales volume growth in the second quarter which some analysts found reassuring
• Societe Generale shares drop as much as 7.7% after a disappointing performance at the French bank’s domestic retail unit overshadowed a surge in trading revenues
• Worldline shares drop as much as 18%, to the lowest intraday level on record, after the French payment processor cut its guidance for revenue growth and profit, citing weaker consumption trends in Europe
• Syensqo shares drop as much as 7.9%, hitting the lowest level since the company was spun off from Solvay in December, after the chemicals maker narrowed its full-year earnings guidance downward
• Schroders falls as much as 8.6%, most in four years, after the UK asset manager reported adjusted profit or the first half-year that missed estimates, with analysts noting lower revenues that were partly offset by better costs
• Melrose Industries shares fall as much as 6.7% as supply-chain disruption weighed on the aerospace firm’s outlook for 2025, though the company did reiterate guidance for 2024

“People are a bit more concerned that we will see a sharper slowdown than what’s currently priced in,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at digital wealth manager Moneyfarm. “We’ve seen downgrades to next quarter’s earnings. There’s also been some notable commentary from macro bellwethers about consumer spending. And that does give you pause.”

Earlier, Asian stocks declined, weighed down by a rout in Japanese shares as the yen soared after the BOJ raised interest rates on Wednesday. Chinese equities also pulled back after strong gains in the previous session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%. Japanese stocks including Toyota Motor were among the biggest drags, offsetting gains in tech shares including TSMC that tracked advances in US peers. Benchmarks rose in Taiwan, South Korea and Australia.

Japan’s Topix plunged more than 3%, falling the most since April 2020 in a broad selloff, as the yen’s sharp rally weighed on exporters and the central bank’s interest rate hike dragged down real estate shares.  A measure of property stocks led losses in the index plunging 7.3% while automakers slumped 6.6%. Department stores, which had been benefiting from booming tourist spending on the back of a weaker yen, also fell. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which entered a technical correction last week, lost 2.5%. The moves came after the Bank of Japan’s tightening was followed by comments from Jerome Powell that the Federal Reserve could cut rates “as soon as” September.

In FX, the dollar rose 0.2% against a basket of currencies after recording its worst day since May on Wednesday. The yen erased earlier gains to trade little changed.

In rates, treasuries are slightly lower across the curve, while gilts outperform after Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% in a 5-4 vote split. In a close call, policy members were expected to vote for a rate cut. Treasury yields are cheaper by 1.5bp to 2bp across the curve with belly leading losses on the day, giving back some outperformance seen Wednesday. Treasury 10-year yields trade around 4.05%, cheaper by 2bp on the day with gilts outperforming by 6bp in the sector, bunds by 4bp. Leading into the Bank of England rate decision, Treasuries were already slightly lower across the curve, giving back some of Wednesday’s late gains into month-end. For US session, focus will switch back to data with initial jobless claims and manufacturing gauges expected. Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, OIS markets price in around 27bp of rate cuts into the September policy meeting and roughly 72bp of cuts by the end of the year.

In commodities, oil extended gains after Iran reportedly ordered a retaliatory strike on Israel for killing a Hamas leader on its soil.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes July job cuts (7:30am), 2Q preliminary nonfarm productivity and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), July S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). The next scheduled Fed speaker is Barkin on Friday (12pm)

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,565.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 515.53
• MXAP down 0.7% to 182.35
• MXAPJ up 0.4% to 567.81
• Nikkei down 2.5% to 38,126.33
• Topix down 3.2% to 2,703.69
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 17,304.96
• Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,932.39
• Sensex little changed at 81,771.28
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,114.67
• Kospi up 0.3% to 2,777.68
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.29%
• Euro down 0.4% to $1.0785
• Brent Futures up 0.7% to $81.41/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,436.89
• US Dollar Index up 0.26% to 104.37

Top Overnight News

• WSJ’s Timiraos wrote the Fed cleared the path for a September rate cut and noted officials held rates steady but made an important pivot of highlighting a more balanced focus on employment and inflation goals.
• The US could impose restrictions on China’s ability to access high-bandwidth memory chips (and the equipment needed to make those chips), potentially limiting Beijing’s ability to build AI infrastructure. BBG  
• The US said Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro lost the presidential election, while he doubled down and said opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González should be jailed for at least 30 years. BBG
• BMW shares slump in European trading after the company reported a shortfall on auto margins due to weakness in China. Volkswagen shares also sliding lower after the company’s margins were hurt by restructuring charges while China deliveries witnessed softness (mgmt. said its cost cutting initiatives aren’t over and would persist beyond H2). WSJ
• Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the order. NYT
• Expectations tilted toward the first BOE cut since the start of the pandemic, a 25-bp reduction to 5%, but economists said it’s a close call after months of silence from Governor Andrew Bailey due to the UK election campaign. Officials will also release growth and inflation forecasts today. BBG
• Bill Ackman pressed pause on the initial public offering of a new fund aimed at everyday investors after a lack of investor demand forced him to dramatically shrink his fundraising target. WSJ
• Donald Trump now trails Kamala Harris in the presidential race, PredictIt showed. His odds briefly dropped to just under 50% — they reached 70% at one stage. BBG
• McDonald’s $5 meal deal drove a “notable” bump in diner traffic and is helping to capture customers from rivals, according to a company memo to franchisees. BBG
• META (+7% pre mkt) reported EPS upside at 5.16 (+73% and above the Street’s 4.72 forecast), w/the beat driven by higher sales (+22% to $39.07B vs. the Street $38.33B), cost controls (costs/expenses rose only 7% while op. margins spiked 900bp to 38%), and a low tax rate (11% vs. the Street’s ~15% forecast). Capex ran below the Street at “only” $8.1B (this is more than $1B below the consensus forecast of $9.4B) but despite this, they take up the full-year capex guide slightly (now $37-40B vs. the prior $35-40B) and talk about “significant” capex growth in ‘25. RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested the latest key developments including strong tech earnings, Fed Chair Powell’s dovish press conference and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors amid a softer yield environment. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level alongside a firmer currency after the recent BoJ rate hike and as participants also digested earnings releases, while Toyota shares were heavily pressured after Japan’s Transport Ministry announced that misconduct was discovered in an additional 7 Toyota models. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued after disappointing Caixin Manufacturing PMI which unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 9 months.

Top Asian News

• HKMA maintained its base rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.
• China NDRC vice head said there is ‘sufficient’ room for counter-cyclical policy adjustments and that China has the conditions, ability, and confidence to achieve its full-year growth target. Furthermore, China will actively expand domestic demand and put consumption boost in a more striking position, as well as promote effective investment.

European bourses are lower across the board, Stoxx 600 -0.3%, despite the initial modest optimism of futures overnight. Earnings dominate the breakdown this morning. Sectors are mixed, no overarching theme with earnings dictating; Retail outperforms on Next earnings, followed closely by Real Estate on the back of Vonovia. While Autos lag after BMW, Daimler Truck and Volkswagen with Banks pressured by BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and ING all post-earnings. DAX 40 lags given the pressure in auto names, CAC 40 hit on SocGen and Credit Ag. While the FTSE 100 is the relative best performer given GBP weakness ahead of the BoE and also as the likes of Rolls-Royce and Shell lift post-earnings. Stateside, futures are mixed post-FOMC and into an after-market session with numerous heavyweights due incl. AAPL, AMZN & INTC; ES +0.2%, NQ +0.3%. Post-earnings, Meta +6.3% while QCOM now resides in the red.

Top European News

• German engineering orders -9% Y/Y in June (Domestic -8%; Orders -10%); Apr-Jun -10% Y/Y (Domestic -20%, Foreign Orders -5%), according to VDMA.

FX

• USD is managing to claw back most of yesterday’s FOMC-related selling with DXY up to a 104.37 peak vs. yesterday’s 104.53 high.
• USD strength which comes from deteriorating European sentiment, EUR/USD at lows of 1.0779 and Cable below 1.28 to a 1.2764 base into the BoE.
• JPY is one of the best performers across the majors as the combination of a BoJ hike yesterday and Powell paving the way for a September cut acts as a drag on USD/JPY; down to a 148.52 base but since back above 149.00.
• AUD pressured on USD strength and soft Chinese Caixin PMIs, Kiwi also pressured but to a lesser extent.

Fixed Income

• A bullish start for fixed income as the FOMC undertones continue to reverberate through.
• Bunds holding around 134.00 in a 133.85-134.17 band; unreactive to unusually hefty revisions to Final PMIs and a sizeable outlook cut by HCOB on the German economy for the year as a whole.
• Similarly, supply from Spain and France passed with no real reaction.
• Gilts outperform into the BoE, though before this the Manufacturing PMI was revised higher and accompanied by hawkish pricing commentary but not sufficient to knock Gilts which remain at the top-end of 99.49-79 parameters and as such the UK 10yr yield still resides sub-4.0%.
• USTs firmer, and towards the top-end of 112-02+ to 112-10+ parameters, a peak which matches Wednesday’s post-Powell high.
• Spain sells EUR 5.9bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.50% 2027, 3.45% 2034 & 5.15% 2044 bonds & EUR 0.766bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 0.65% 2027 I/L
• France sells EUR 10.497bln vs exp. EUR 9-10.5bln 3.00% 2034, 1.25% 2038, 2.50% 2043, and 4.00% 2055 OAT Auction

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks continue to climb with geopolitical risk premium keeping the complex afloat heading into the OPEC+ JMMC.
• WTI Sep trades towards the top of a current USD 78.31-78.88/bbl range with Brent Oct around the upper end of a USD 81.13-81.80/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals pressured amid the recent USD strength, XAU at the lower-end of a USD 2,433.29-2,458.47/oz range vs Wednesday’s USD 2,403.94-2,451.01/oz. While base peers have also come off best, with 3M LME Copper at the lower-end of parameters given the USD strength and mentioned surprise contraction in the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
• OPEC+ is likely to maintain output policy at the meeting, via Reuters citing sources; meeting has been pushed back to 12:00BST/07:00ET.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel sent messages through diplomatic channels to Lebanon and Iran in which it stated that Israel is ready to go to the point of all-out war if Hezbollah and Iran respond in a way that will severely damage Israel, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Faytuks News on X.
• US Deputy Representative to the Security Council said a wider war is neither imminent nor inevitable, according to Al Jazeera.
• Hamas said it targeted a gathering of Israeli soldiers at the Salem military checkpoint west of Jenin with machine guns and achieved direct hits, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli military confirmed death of Hamas military leader Deif in a July strike in Gaza, via a statement.

Geopolitics: Other

• Chinese Foreign Ministry said China and India are to speed up the negotiation process for the border situation and continue to maintain peace and tranquillity in border areas.
• Chinese military said a Canadian frigate sailed through the Taiwan Strait, while it added that Canada’s actions have disrupted and undermined peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

US Event Calendar

• 07:30: July Challenger Job Cuts YoY 9.2%, prior 19.8%
• 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 236,000, prior 235,000
  • July Continuing Claims, est. 1.86m, prior 1.85m
• 08:30: 2Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 1.8%, prior 0.2%
  • Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.7%, prior 4.0%
• 09:45: July S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.6, prior 49.5
• 10:00: June Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
• 10:00: July ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.8, prior 48.5

In a massive overnight night development, Russia has released Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan in a prisoner swap, Bloomberg and others confirm.

Some sources are saying that as many as 20 and 30 political prisoners and journalists might be part of a multi-country exchange reportedly in progress, but what’s certain is that Gershkovich and Whelan are currently on their way to freedom.

“The men, jailed in Russia on espionage charges they and the US deny, are en route to destinations outside of Russia,” reports Bloomberg. “The US and its allies will return prisoners to Russia that they hold under the deal, the people said, asking for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public.”

And The Moscow Times speculated overnight as rumors swirled of an impending major deal with Moscow, “Russia may be preparing to free between 20 and 30 political prisoners and journalists in an imminent exchange with the United States and Germany, a source familiar with the planning said, in what, if confirmed, would be the largest swap since the end of the Cold War.” However, these latter details have yet to be confirmed. It is also as yet unclear who on the Russian side is being freed.

Only very recently, on July 19, a Yekaterinburg handed down a very significant 16-year prison sentence in Gershkovich’s espionage case, after he had been behind bars since is March 2023 arrest.

Russian authorities claim he was spying for the CIA while investigating a major Russian defense company in Yekaterinburg, a city which lies east of the Ural Mountains.

It is widely believed that Russia was using the case as a bargaining chip all along, in order to free high level Russian detainees in the West, just like the prisoner swap involving Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout played out.

As for Marine veteran Paul Whelan, who was issued a 16-year sentence in 2020 on charges of espionage – which the US government condemned as false and unfair – his family had long complained that his case didn’t get the attention from Washington that it deserved. But his fate appears to have suddenly and drastically changed for the better.

Could it be that Tucker Carlson’s big interview with President Vladimir Putin had a part to play, or got the ball rolling in the prisoner deal?

Tucker Carlson spent roughly 10 to 15 minutes imploring Vladimir Putin to release the WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich, vehemently arguing why it’s unjust to keep him — in a way that no corporate journalist would ever dare do with Biden about Assange.https://t.co/YWZXNbRtS7 pic.twitter.com/xsLsdUFwq8

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 8, 2024

developing…

The global easing train is now well and truly on its way. While the Fed got close to cutting rates yesterday, but instead punted to September, moments ago it was the Bank of England that joined the SNB and ECB and became the latest western central bank to begin an easing cycle when it cut interest rates by 0.25%, taking them down to 5.00%, its first rate cut since the global covid crash (the market was pricing 60% odd of a rate cut ahead of the decision so not exactly a big surprise).

The cut – which was an extremely close decision, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 5-4 to cut rates (vs 2-7 in the last meeting) with Bailey, Breeden, Lombardelli, Ramsden and Dhingra voting to cut and Pill, Greene, Mann, and Haskel voting for unchanged – brings to an end the joint-longest peak in rates since BoE was granted independence.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5-4 to reduce #BankRate to 5%. Find out more: https://t.co/zBZeLlwSxD pic.twitter.com/YOcCTfER5o

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) August 1, 2024

The minutes of the meeting noted that for some of the MPC members voting for a cut the decision was finely balanced with risks to the inflation outlook remaining skewed to the upside. Importantly, the minutes did not provide any indications about the future rate cuts stating that “[t]he Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”.

Governor Andrew Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote for a quarter-point cut – said that the decision was “finely balanced” for some of those supporting the move, and warned that the MPC must be careful not to cut rates too quickly, or by too much.

Furthermore, the MPC said that “monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further” (in June, it said “restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably”.)

From those who voted to cut, the decision was finely balanced: inflationary persistence had not yet conclusively dissipated, and there remained some upside risks to the outlook. Additionally, “there had been some progress in moderating risks of persistence in inflation,” the minutes said. Business surveys pointed to “waning wage and price pressures.” For some of those officials, the decision was “finely balanced” as inflationary persistence “had not yet conclusively dissipated.”

For those who voted to hold rates, members thought that there was a greater risk of more enduring structural shifts, such as a rise in the medium- term equilibrium rate of employment, a fall in potential growth and a rise in the long-run neutral interest rate, contributing to domestic inflationary persistence. They preferred to maintain the current level of Bank Rate until there was stronger evidence that these upside pressures would not materialize.

Alongside Bailey, Clare Lombardelli, the new deputy governor for monetary policy, backed the reduction in what was her first meeting. They were joined by deputy governors Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden as well as external member Swati Dhingra.

Chief Economist Huw Pill and external policymakers Jonathan Haskel, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann preferred to hold. It was Haskel’s last vote. In June, only two members supported a cut.

On Inflation, the BoE said risks that inflation pressures from second round effects endure into the medium-term

Economic projections:

• Inflation:
  • 2024 forecast at 2.75% (prev. 2.5%),
  • 2025 at 2.25% (prev. 2.25%),
  • 2026 at 1.5% (prev. 1.5%)
• Growth:
  • 2024 forecast at 1 25% (prev. 0.5%),
  • 2025 at 1.0% (prev. 1.0%),
  • 2026 at 1.25% (prev. 1.25%)

Separately, as the Bank of England prepares for its annual adjustment in September of the QT program to reduce its holdings of bonds, UBS notes that Thursday’s MPC report includes the latest analysis of the impact of QT. The BoE said that QT has had a small impact on gilt yields and the QT operations have had little impact on market functioning, which suggests they could increase active sales in the next 120-month period. It says that between February 2022 and June 2024, UK 10y bond yields rose 275bp while UK term premia rose 75bp; but QT is likely to account for just 10bp (though perhaps as much as 20bp) of the total rise in the term premium. It added that measures of gilt market liquidity have, if anything, improved since the start of QT, with some signs that sales may in fact have had a positive effect by alleviating collateral scarcity at shorter maturities.

As Bloomberg notes, the reduction will come as welcome relief for mortgage borrowers and business after 12 months with rates stuck at a 16-year high, and offers the new government an initial boon. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have been in office less than a month and have promised to boost growth to fix the UK’s ailing public services. Lower rates will help growth and bring down debt-servicing costs, giving the government more money for its spending priorities.

The BOE was briefed on the chancellor’s policy changes on Monday, when public-sector workers were awarded a £10 billion pay rise, but officials did not include them in the August projections. The effects on the fiscal stance will be in the November forecast following the full budget on Oct. 30.

Looking ahead, there was no specific guidance on where interest rates may settle, nor of the speed of cuts needed to get there. The minutes indicated that the BOE may lower borrowing costs only slowly, and financial market bets before the announcement pointed to only one further reduction this year.

“Inflationary pressures have eased enough that we’ve been able to cut interest rates today,” Bailey said in a statement. “But we need to make sure inflation stays low, and be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much.”

The decision, according to Bloomberg, is an early gift to the new Labour government and aligns the BOE with a slow-to-start bandwagon of easing across advanced economies. That shift will possibly soon be joined by the US Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell signaled on Wednesday that officials are on course to cut rates in September unless inflation progress stalls.

Similar to its peers, the UK central bank displayed a cautious approach toward future changes in borrowing costs, with the minutes adding that officials will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.”

Even so, the bank’s forecasts point to a steeper path of rate cuts over the next three years than markets currently expect.

On market assumptions that rates fall to 4.1% in 2025 and 3.5% in three years’ time, inflation is at 1.7% after two years and 1.5% after three – well below the 2% target.

UK consumer-price growth is back at that level, but underlying pressures remain uncomfortably high. The BOE said headline inflation will bounce back to 2.7% by the end of the year, and that what happens after that depends on how wages and services prices evolve. Inflation risks will remain “skewed to the upside throughout the forecast period,” the BOE said in its documents. “Monetary policy would need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning to the 2% target in the medium term had dissipated further.”

The committee decided to cut despite stickier underlying inflation than hoped and stronger growth than anticipated – both elements cited by the minority that opposed the move in a vote that was the MPC’s tightest since September 2023.

Services inflation was 5.7% in June, well above the BOE’s forecast for 5.1%, and wage growth has dropped only slowly.
The economy is also rebounding from recession more strongly than expected. The BOE upgraded growth for this year to 1.25% from 0.5%, but left projections for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1% and 1.25%.

With the market generally expecting a rate cut, there was little reaction to the news, with both cable (which had fallen sharply ahead of the announcement) and rates barely reacting to the news, dropping from 1.2780 to 1.2754 before the BOE only to pick up slightly after to 1.2770, while Gilts lifted from 99.73 to 99.99 before paring to 99.59 15 minutes after.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Return to Office (RTO) orders are one ploy companies use to get employees to quit.

BambooHR discusses what’s frequently behind Return-to-Office Mandates.

The connection between RTO mandates and workforce downsizing is not lost on workers, many of whom consider an RTO mandate to be a layoff precursor. Vague reasoning and missing productivity metrics leave employees to assume the worst, which is only fueled by already-low employee happiness and trending anti-work content on social media. One in four (28%) remote workers fear they’ll be laid off before their in-office coworkers.

Nearly two in five (37%) managers, directors, and executives believe their organization enacted layoffs in the last year because fewer employees than they expected quit during their RTO.

And their beliefs are well-founded: One in four (25%) VP and C-suite executives and one in five (18%) HR pros admit they hoped for some voluntary turnover during an RTO, proving, in some cases, why RTO mandates are layoffs in disguise.

By using RTO mandates as a workforce reduction tactic, companies are losing talent and morale among their employees. Nearly half (45%) of the employees who have experienced RTO report significant talent loss within their organizations—talent that was highly valued and wished to be retained.

Moreover, the discontent with return to office policies is strong among employees, with more than one in four (28%) stating they would consider leaving their positions if subjected to such mandates. This level of dissatisfaction could lead to a further drain of talent, affecting not just morale but also the stability and innovation potential of the workforce.

If you do lose your job it’s increasingly harder to find a new one.

Note that Continued Unemployment Claims Jump to the Highest Level Since Nov 2021

After stabilizing for about a year, continued unemployment claims have surged in the last two months.

Continued Claims Key Points

• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 6 was 1,867,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

• This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 27, 2021 when it was 1,878,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 1,852,000 to 1,847,000.

• The 4-week moving average was 1,850,500, an increase of 11,500 from the previous week’s revised average.

• This is the highest level for this average since December 4, 2021 when it was 1,859,750. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,250 from 1,840,250 to 1,839,000.

I am closely watching claims now. There will be a new report this morning.

Twenty years ago such an incident would be widely regarded in the UK and Europe as a terrorist attack.  In the woke haze of 2024, though, the 17-year-old child of Rwandan migrants who went on a stabbing spree at a kids dance recital in the town of Southport, England is treated as a run-of-the-mill criminal.  The response from the British public is one of rage as riots erupt across the country.

Following a long running pattern of information suppression when it comes to migrant crimes, very little data has been released by authorities concerning the attacker’s background or possible motives.  What is known is that despite leaving three dead children and ten others injured in the streets of Southport, journalists have sought to humanize the attacker, likely because of his Rwandan migrant family.

UK officials have adopted a blackout policy on migrant violence (including the children of migrants who tend to be more easily radicalized) and have even launched programs to gaslight the public into accepting these tragedies as the new normal; a matter that needs to be embraced with quiet compassion. 

After the stabbing, apparent false reports of the perpetrator being a Muslim migrant named Ali Al-Shakati appeared to originate from a July 29 article on the website “Channel 3 Now” that was later updated to remove in-text references to “Ali Al-Shakati.”  The media has “fact checked” this report dishonestly – They state that the real attacker was born in the UK, but they initially refrained from mentioning his family’s migrant background or his ideological influences.  The chances are high that this information will never be willingly released to the public should it put the UK government’s open border agenda at risk. 

Political leaders and various news platforms are already painting the alleged perpetrator and his family in the best possible light; describing them as “quiet and pleasant” and the attacker as a “loner from a nice family.”  This kind of velvet glove approach is never afforded to white, male and British people accused of criminal acts.  In fact, activist Tommy Robinson was recently arrested and charged under UK terror provisions for nothing more than showing a movie at a patriot rally, but the guy who masked up to plan and execute a mass stabbing of British children will not be treated as a terrorist. 

The narrative is being established that the murders have nothing to do with his migrant or ideological background and are a product of “mental instability.”  If ideological leanings are admitted then the citizenry may demand that migrants be removed, and thus the Cloward-Piven strategy in play in the UK would be undermined. 

The core problem with the mass importation of aliens from third-world societies is that they often regard extreme violence as the first solution to any given problem.  Brutality in these cultures is normal and accepted.  Personal disputes are handled with machetes and the spilling of blood, not debates or even a fair fight.  There is no expectation of honor when it comes to the targeting of innocents; this is not a root principle of third-world zealots.  

The more western nations are saturated with the global dregs, the more often these kinds of devastating attacks will occur.  Until, eventually, the indigenous public becomes fed up and takes to the streets to rid their communities of the threat.

Authored by Savannah Fortis via CoinTelegraph.com,

The European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act officially takes effect on Aug. 1, following its publication in the Official Journal of the EU on July 12.

The landmark legislation marks a significant step toward regulating the rapidly evolving landscape of AI within the EU. As stakeholders across various industries prepare for the new rules, understanding the phased implementation and key aspects of the AI Act is crucial.

AI Act implemented

Under the AI Act’s implementation scheme, the legislation will be introduced gradually, similar to the EU’s approach to the introduction of its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, which allows organizations time to adjust and comply. 

The EU is well-known for its complex bureaucracy. As a result, on Aug. 1, the official countdown will commence on the practical implementations of the AI Act, with key stages set to come into effect throughout 2025 and 2026.

The first will be the “Prohibitions of Certain AI Systems,” which will take effect in February 2025. This set of rules will prohibit AI applications that exploit individual vulnerabilities, engage in non-targeted scraping of facial images from the internet or CCTV footage, and create facial recognition databases without consent.

Following this, general-purpose AI models will have a new set of requirements implemented in August 2025. These AI systems are made to handle various tasks rather than being used for unique and specific purposes, such as image identification.

Rules for certain high-risk AI (HRAI) systems with specific transparency risks will come into effect by August 2026. 

For example, if the HRAI system is part of a product subject to EU health and safety laws, such as toys, the rules will apply by August 2027. For HRAI systems used by public authorities, compliance is mandatory by August 2030, irrespective of any design changes.

Companies and compliance

The enforcement of the AI Act will be robust and multifaceted. The EU intends to establish and designate national regulatory authorities in each of the 27 member states to oversee compliance. 

These authorities will have the power to conduct audits, demand documentation and enforce corrective actions. The European Artificial Intelligence Board will coordinate and ensure consistent application across the EU.

Companies dealing with AI will have to meet compliance obligations in risk management, data governance, information transparency, human oversight and post-market monitoring.

Industry insiders have recommended that for companies to comply with these obligations, they should begin to conduct thorough audits of their AI systems, establish comprehensive documentation practices, and invest in robust data governance frameworks.

Noncompliance with the AI Act can result in severe penalties, such as fines of up to 35 million euros or 7% of the company’s total worldwide annual turnover, depending on which figure is bigger.

The AI Act complements the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) enacted in May 2018 by addressing AI-specific risks and ensuring that AI systems respect fundamental rights.

While GDPR focuses on data protection and privacy, the AI Act emphasizes safe and ethical AI deployment. Already, major tech companies such as Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, have delayed AI-integrated products in the EU due to “regulatory uncertainty” around GDPR and the AI Act.

Emerging technologies of today have the power to reshape industries, achieve significant scale, and shift the economic landscape.

As Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld details below, from AI-driven advancements in disease detection to carbon-capturing microbes, these technologies stand to improve future society. Meanwhile, greater efficiencies in wireless connectivity allow networks to drive higher data rates and enhance robust communications across 6G networks and the industrial internet-of-things.

The above graphic shows the top 10 emerging technologies for 2024, based on data from the World Economic Forum.

Methodology

Technologies were selected from a survey based on 300 nominations across 29 countries, according to the below criteria:

• Power: The technology could critically transform industries and established behaviors

• Applicability: The technology has the potential for widespread use and benefit to economies

• Novelty: It is in the early stages of development, but yet to be widely used

• Depth: More than one country is developing and investing in the technology

Along with this criteria, technologies were selected based on their potential to make a significant impact on society over the next three to five years.

Leading Emerging Technologies of 2024

Below, we show the most promising emerging technologies of 2024:

Overall, AI-related technologies were driving two of the top 10 technologies across healthcare and data privacy industries.

Although AI for scientific discovery has been developing for some time, the current rate of innovation could accelerate the diagnoses and the treatment of diseases using language modelling. Along with this, deep learning, a subset of AI, can be used to further scientific discoveries.

In the realm of privacy-enhancing technologies, the use of “synthetic data” could play an important role in protecting sensitive data across large datasets. This involves using data that replicates the original data but does not include specific details that may be connected to people.

As a warming planet and extreme weather events increasingly disrupt global society, four of the top 10 technologies were focused on sustainable solutions. One compelling technology is carbon-capturing microbes, which are engineered through synthetic biology to absorb greenhouse gases. Not only that, these organisms can convert CO₂ into fertilizers and fuels through using sunlight to transform gases.

In addition, elastocalorics are a technology that increase the energy efficiency of heating and cooling systems. This is done through elastocaloric material getting hotter or cooler under exposure to mechanical stress. Importantly, this technology doesn’t rely on potentially environmentally harmful refrigerant gases, as global demand for space cooling is projected to triple in the next three decades.