WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Small (Surprise) Crude Build

WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Small (Surprise) Crude Build

Oil prices limped lower once again today (5th decline in the last six days) as stocks stalled and a potential cease-fire in Gaza built on mounting concern about the global demand outlook.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Israel accepted a cease-fire proposal and that the next step was for Hamas to agree. In response, the militant group pushed back against the US, denying claims that it was stalling negotiations and saying it was “keen” to reach an accord.

Meanwhile, China’s worsening economic malaise is keeping the market subdued. Recent data showed shrinking factory activity and a decline in oil demand, while the world’s largest importer is also considering a new rescue plan for its beleaguered property sector.

The question is, will last week’s unexpected crude inventory build be confirmed as a one-off or is the macro background fear starting to actually impact physical markets.

API

  • Crude +347k (-2.9mm exp)

  • Cushing -648k

  • Gasoline -1.04mm

  • Distillates -2.24mm

For the second week in a row, Crude stockpiles saw an increase, while the all-important hub at Cushing saw another draw and product stocks fell…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI modestly extended losses on the crude build…

“The geopolitical risk premium, which had been inflating prices, started deflating when the U.S. announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a bridging proposal to cool tensions between Israel and Hamas,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in market commentary.

“A de-escalation in the Middle East could make that risk premium evaporate faster than a puddle in the desert sun.”

Additionally, Powell could mess it all up:

“An economic downturn resulting from a ‘Fed mistake’ would lead to a bear market in the global energy markets,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

So “if we start to see economic data deteriorate in the coming weeks or months, demand estimates penciled in based on the optimistic hope of a soft landing will fall considerably amid an emerging recessionary reality.”

Now we just have to wait and see what tomorrow’s official inventory and supply data shows.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 17:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Hjm2c6N Tyler Durden

What Has The Fed Done To Our Lives?

What Has The Fed Done To Our Lives?

Authored by George F. Smith via LewRockwell.com,

The following is derived from a speech in my novel, The Flight of the Barbarous Relic

Wars must be funded, and for this governments functioning as states call upon the banking system for assistance.

Central Bank counterfeiting, which is another name for inflation, is the fuel that energizes the forces of war.  Inflation, or counterfeiting, amounts to issuing receipts for something that doesn’t exist, which legally is the prerogative of the central bank.  Calling such receipts money allows them to be created in massive amounts quickly.  When the US Congress votes to send billions of fiat money to Ukraine, Israel or anywhere else, no one questions the nature of what is being sent because legal tender laws make it all copasetic.

Yet, we should know better.

As to the assumed authority of any assembly in making paper money, or paper of any kind, a legal tender, or in other language, a compulsive payment [Thomas Paine wrote in 1786], it is a most presumptuous attempt at arbitrary power. There can be no such power in a republican government: the people have no freedom, and property no security where this practice can be acted . . .

If anything had, or could have, a value equal to gold and silver, it would require no tender law: and if it had not that value it ought not to have such a law; and, therefore, all tender laws are tyrannical and unjust, and calculated to support fraud and oppression. [emphasis added]

Banks belonging to the Federal Reserve central banking cartel can issue credit based on the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation D, which specifies “a set of uniform reserve requirements for all depository institutions with transaction accounts,” so that, for instance, if the reserve ratio is 1:10, a bank with $10 million in reserve can issue $100 million in credit.  Could you loan $100 to a friend if you only had $10 to spare?

The Fed dropped the reserve ratio to near zero in March, 2020 during the Covid pandemic.  I’m tempted to say the Fed would react in a similar manner to a Congressional declaration of war, as required by the Constitution, but the war power of Congress has been neglected since WW II.

We need to keep in mind that lending as such is crucial to our well-being.  As one commentator astutely observed, without an international banking system most of us wouldn’t be alive today. Money and banking make possible the division of labor, which has drastically reduced child mortality and raised living standards wherever free markets flourished.

But it’s also true that throughout most of banking history, the banks’ practice of generating unbacked money substitutes prevailed. Invariably, some would go too far and depositors would start showing up at teller windows wanting their notes exchanged for gold.  Without enough gold to redeem, many of the banks had to shut their doors.  But only temporarily.

For reasons of its own, government took a strong interest in the bankers’ plight and usually issued moratoriums on note redemption. For a period sometimes lasting years, banks were permitted to default on their liabilities to note holders while being allowed to conduct all other banking activities.

Helpful as this privilege was, it wasn’t enough. Banks weren’t always allowed to renege on their promises, their easy credit policies created bankruptcies and recessions, and besides, bank runs were embarrassing. No banker liked seeing crowds swarming at his door demanding what was theirs, even if the law was on his side.

Enter the central bank

Fortunately for American bankers and their political allies, Germany provided an example of an ingenious solution to the dilemma of bank counterfeiting. During the early years of the twentieth century U. S. bankers imported some of their ideas and, meeting at Jekyll Island, Georgia  with a few powerful politicians, devised a plan for a banking cartel.

Americans didn’t like cartels or centralized power, the planners realized, so they called their creature a ‘reserve system’ and dressed it up with regional branches to avoid the appearance of a concentration of power.  Since no cartel will work without government guns it was decided to attach the name ‘federal’ to it, as well. Thus, the American central bank became known as the Federal Reserve System, or the Fed, signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson on December 23, 1913.

The Fed became an indispensable instrument of profit and power. Beginning in 1914, it cut reserve requirements approximately in half, dropping the ratio from 21 percent to 11 percent, roughly doubling the money supply and permitting both financial aid to the Allies and eventual American entry into the European war in April 1917.

Government, meanwhile, used the war as an excuse to create what one economic historian has aptly called a ‘garrison economy.’ Among other things government took over railroads and communications industries, seized hundreds of manufacturing plants, fixed prices, intervened in hundreds of labor disputes, raised taxes, and conscripted over a million men for military service so they could join the bloodbath over there, in
the European trenches. The Supreme Court, the alleged guardian of the Constitution – which itself is our alleged guardian against an aggressive government – ruled most of the war interventions constitutional, including the draft. Merely questioning the constitutionality of the draft could get you thrown in jail.

Thus, the federal reserve – a government- protected, government-serving, elaborately-cloaked counterfeiting cartel – played a crucial role in converting a peaceful America into a bellicose, interventionist state.

We hear voices calling for patriotism during war. But who exactly were the patriots during ‘the war to end all wars’?

Was it J. P. Morgan, who repeatedly said, ‘Nobody could hate war more than I do’ as he was amassing commissions totaling $30 million as a purchasing agent of war supplies for England and France?

Was it Morgan’s steel, shipbuilding, and powder enterprises that bought controlling interest in, and editorial control over, the country’s 25 most influential newspapers?

Was it President Woodrow Wilson who had won reelection with the slogan ‘he kept us out of war’ then five months later asked Congress to join a war that had already killed five million people?

Was it Senator Robert La Follette of Wisconsin, who rose in the Senate to dissect Wilson’s call for war point by point, arguing that Wilson and his advisors had been colluding with Britain for two years trying to find a pretext for American entry into the fray against England’s enemies?

Was it the senators who spoke after La Follette and for five hours hotly denounced him as ‘pro-German’ and ‘anti-American’?

Was it the majority of Americans who in spite of a well-orchestrated media campaign against Germany still opposed joining the war?

Was it the men who were conscripted and sent overseas, over 100,000 of whom lost their lives?

Was it the industrial firms back home, thousands of miles from the slaughter on the Western Front, whose income tax records showed huge profits during the war years?

Was it the millions here who kept their mouths shut about the war because the Espionage Act of 1917 and its successor, the Sedition Act of 1918, hung a 20-year prison sentence over the heads of Wilson’s critics?

Washington, Jefferson, Madison, and John Quincy Adams are generally considered patriotic, yet they counseled strongly against American entanglement in foreign affairs.

The Fed, and its partner in theft, the income tax, enabled politicians and their financial backers to ignore their warnings.

Have you noticed we’ve been at war almost constantly since the Fed was forced upon us? We had World War I, the Great Depression — which was likened to war by the rulers — World War II, then the umbrella of the Cold War under which two hot wars and various skirmishes were fought.

For a president eager to go to war, the Fed has been a godsend.

The Federal Reserve makes war seem affordable. The media makes war seem patriotic. And in the background, waiting to be fattened, are the politicians’ corporate supporters who profit hugely from foreign invasions.

Have you noticed the economic trends since the Fed took over the money supply?  The “elastic currency” today is approaching collapse, and economic calamities live on — the very opposite of the Fed’s alleged raison d’être.   Should we be surprised at these outcomes? Of course not.  The Fed is fulfilling its mission.

If we truly desire peace and prosperity, we will wipe every trace of central banking and fiat money from the face of the earth. Fiat currencies always bring out the worst in government as it inflates us into war, economic ruin, and autocratic rule.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/hs5B4Z0 Tyler Durden

Gold Hits New Record High As Kamu-nism/Growth-Scare Spoils Stocks’ Party

Gold Hits New Record High As Kamu-nism/Growth-Scare Spoils Stocks’ Party

The S&P 500 has not had a nine-day win-streak since 2004 and it appears Kamu-nism was enough to stop stocks doing it again today as Harris unveiled her cunning plan, including 28% corporate tax, price-controls, 44.6% capital-gains tax, and last but not least, a tax on unrealized gains.

Small Caps were the ugliest horse in the glue factory today as the algos tried their hardest to maintain the win-streak.

The NYSE Composite Index did make a new record high at this morning’s open, but then faded back…

Source: Bloomberg

The Mag7 basket managed another day of (marginal) gains (but we do note that it stalled intraday at a key resistance level)…

Source: Bloomberg

But ‘most shorted’ stocks were puked out of the gate…

Source: Bloomberg

And this occurred as growth-surprise data slumped back to multi-year lows (not helped by the crash in Philly Fed’s survey today)…

Source: Bloomberg

…which lifted rate-cut expectations modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

Are we back in Goldilocks-land – just enough growth-scare to enable the Fed doves support for stocks but not enough growth-scare to terrify investors’ guesses at future earnings.

The dollar doesn’t care – it’s riding the dovish path lower no matter what…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite the best efforts of Benoit and his BIS buddies to tamp down enthusiasm for alternatives, gold surged to a new record high today…

Source: Bloomberg

But, we do note that Treasury yields did plunge today (6-7bps across the curve) – a little more growth-scare than equity bulls might have liked to see…

Source: Bloomberg

As the chart above shows, the long-end (10Y and 30Y) has erased all of the CPI-spike from last week.

Most notably, the 2Y yield tumbled back below 4.00% (after CPI sent yields back up to pre-payrolls levels)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices limped lower once again (5th day of the last 6) as growth-scares weighed on commods…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped up above $61,000 overnight during the Asia session, then was punched lower during the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind, that pattern of trading should come as no surprise at all…

Finally, while markets have recovered, Deutsche Bank warned this morning in a note to clients that catalysts behind the retreat haven’t necessarily evaporated. The firm outlined five key risks that remain that investors should watch:

  • First, equity valuations are still at historic highs, with the market trading in moderately overweight territory, the bank said. This made some on Wall Street uneasy even before August’s sell-off and continues to be a point of anxiety as investments pile in.

  • Second, economic data remains vulnerable. Part of the reason equities dropped dramatically in August was a softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls print, which disappointed estimates of 194,000. This was an unwelcome sign of weakness, but not a recessionary reading, DB said. That leaves room for even more disappointing data, which could bring larger consequences to investors if it were to happen.

  • Third, monetary policy is getting increasingly tight on real terms, with DB noting that the real Fed funds rate recently hit its highest since 2007.

  • Fourth, September has been a seasonally bad month for stocks over the past few years. The S&P 500 has fallen during the period for four straight years, and in seven of the past 10. DB says it’s also been a bad month for fixed income, with the Bloomberg global bond aggregate falling during the past seven Septembers.

  • Fifth, geopolitical tensions are still high. DB notes that Middle East conflicts contributed to an equity sell-off in April, while oil prices also hit their highs for the year around the same time. More recently, in August, oil saw their biggest single-day spike of the year on reports of further escalation, the firm said.

And under the hood, options markets are still pricing in the potential for short-term chaos amid a heavy calendar of risk catalysts including Powell’s address at Jackson Hole, NVDA earnings, NFP, CPI, and OpEx…

Source: Bloomberg

As VIX rose notably on the day and VVIX rejected the Maginot Line at 100…

Source: Bloomberg

Was today’s dip a sign that the momo-chase is over… for now?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/fXgB7do Tyler Durden

Harris Proposes Raising Corporate Tax Rate To 28 Percent

Harris Proposes Raising Corporate Tax Rate To 28 Percent

Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate as part of her economic agenda if she wins the presidency in November.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the first day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Harris campaign spokesperson James Singer confirmed in a statement on Aug. 19 that Harris is backing an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21 percent, to 28 percent, the same policy put forward by President Joe Biden in his administration’s fiscal year 2025 budget. Changes to the U.S. tax code require approval by Congress before they can be enacted.

Singer says Harris is in favor of rate rise because it’s the most “fiscally responsible way to put money back in the pockets of working people and ensure billionaires and big corporations pay their fair share.”

“As president, Kamala Harris will focus on creating an opportunity economy for the middle class that advances their economic security, stability, and dignity,” he said.

Days earlier at a campaign event in North Carolina on Aug. 16, Harris outlined her economic agenda, which included a pledge to offer housing assistance through government subsidies, to take on price gouging concerns following a period of heightened inflation, and increase child tax credits, among other promises.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, any increase in the corporate tax rate could raise billions in taxes. In its estimates, the federal agency found that a 1 percent increase in the corporate tax rate would generate an additional $96 billion in taxes from 2019 to 2028.

However, critics of increasing corporate tax rates argue it would only encourage businesses to leave American shores for countries with lower rates. In the process, it could see a decrease in available jobs in the United States.

Tax rate differences among countries can influence businesses’ choices about how and where to invest,” the Congressional Budget Office said.

“To the extent that firms shift their investment and activities to countries with low taxes with the goal of reducing their tax liability at home, economic efficiency declines because firms are not allocating resources to their most productive use.”

Under Republican Presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, the federal government’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashed corporate tax from 35 percent to 21 percent in an effort to help boost the economy by making it attractive for businesses to operate in the United States. Many of the tax reforms in the bill expire in 2025; whoever wins the upcoming election will have the opportunity to either extend the Trump-era tax cut or let it lapse.

Trump has voiced his intention to make the tax model permanent or even cut the rate further. In an Aug. 8 news conference at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, he argued that he‘d “never seen people get elected by saying, ’We’re going to give you a tax increase.’”

Jacob Burg contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 15:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/kVu91oB Tyler Durden

U. Illinois Has 42 “Illegal” Race-, Sex-Based Scholarships: Federal Complaint

U. Illinois Has 42 “Illegal” Race-, Sex-Based Scholarships: Federal Complaint

Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign has 42 “illegal” scholarships that discriminate against applicants on the basis of race, sex, or both, a federal complaint alleges.

The Equal Protection Project of the Legal Insurrection Foundation filed the complaint today with the Office for Civil Rights within the Department of Education.

It identifies 19 scholarships that discriminate on the basis of sex in violation of Title IX.

“Eight scholarships are offered exclusively to female students, eight state a preference for female students, two are offered exclusively to male students, and one states a preference for male students,” the complaint states.

Another 19 scholarships discriminate on the basis of race, in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, according to the federal complaint.

The complaint states:

These 19 scholarships are all offered exclusively or with a stated preference for various groups based on race, color, or national origin including students from underrepresented populations, students who are historically underrepresented, students from minority groups, and students from various ethnic groups or national origins including Czech, Lithuanian, Japanese, Latina/Latino, Iranian.

Another four discriminate on both the basis of race and sex, according to the complaint.

The 2023 Supreme Court decision banning affirmative action makes clear the scholarships are illegal, according to William Jacobson, a law professor at Cornell University.

“After the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Students For Fair Admission, it is clear that discriminating on the basis of race to achieve diversity is not lawful,” Jacobson, the founder of the Equal Protection Project, told The College Fix via a media statement.

“As Chief Justice Roberts wrote in the majority opinion, ‘[e]liminating racial discrimination means eliminating all of it.’”

“The vast number of discriminatory scholarships reflects a pervasive and systemic failure to comply with constitutional and statutory requirements at UIUC, warranting expedited investigation by the Office for Civil Rights,” Professor Jacobson said.

“The eligibility requirements for these scholarships are openly discriminatory,” Jacobson also said. “Regardless of the purpose of the discrimination, it is wrong and unlawful.”

“It does society no good to inject more racism and sexism into the educational system through discriminatory college scholarships,” the civil rights activist said.

He wants the university to create a “remedial plan to compensate students shut out of these scholarships due to discrimination.”

It is not just blue state universities that offer scholarships based on race and sex.

The University of Alabama offers at least $200K in scholarships based on race or sex, a May College Fix analysis found.

The public university told The Fix it is reviewing its scholarships due to legal developments.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 15:45

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​​​​​​​Industry Groups Urge Trudeau ‘Take Action’ As Inflation-Reigniting Canadian Rail-Strike Looms

​​​​​​​Industry Groups Urge Trudeau ‘Take Action’ As Inflation-Reigniting Canadian Rail-Strike Looms

Top industry trade groups have warned in a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to avert a rail strike that could snarl supply chains of critical commodities across North America

“We request that you take action to ensure railroad operations continue before a lockout or strike occurs to prevent serious damage to the Canadian and US economies,” 35 US industry groups wrote in a letter to PM Trudeau. 

Bloomberg highlights the commodities that would be most impacted by a potential rail strike:

Two of Canada’s largest railroad companies said they’ll shut down operations Thursday if they fail to reach an agreement with more than 9,000 of their unionized workers. The two companies account for 80% of Canada’s rail network.

The agriculture industry ships more than 25,000 rail cars a week of goods on Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. and that figure would “go to zero” during a strike or lockout, according to Monday’s letter signed by groups including the US Grains Council, American Farm Bureau Association and the National Grain and Feed Association.

Larry Avila of SupplyChainDive provides more information on the potential labor action at Canada’s major rail carriers, which could unfold as early as Thursday unless 10,000 union workers receive a new deal before then. 

The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference served a strike notice Sunday to Canadian Pacific Kansas City, stating its estimated 3,300 union-represented workers employed by the railroad will withdraw services effective 12:01 a.m. ET Thursday unless they receive a new contract. In response, CPKC said it would lock out all union employees beginning Thursday.

Canadian National Railway followed suit Sunday, informing the union of its intent to lock out the roughly 6,000 represented workers employed by the railroad on Thursday unless the parties agreed on a new labor deal or the union agreed to binding arbitration.

While talks between the Teamsters and the two rail carriers have been ongoing since the last contract expired at the end of last year, a deal has yet to be reached.

The union previously rejected calls for binding arbitration, and Canadian Minister of Labour and Seniors Steven MacKinnon denied Canadian National’s request for such a solution last week. In his letter to Canadian National, MacKinnon stressed the need for the parties to reach an agreement and offered mediation assistance.

Avila continued: 

A work stoppage at Canada’s main rail carriers would have widespread implications to supply chains, according to logistics experts. Over 900,000 metric tons of goods move daily on Canada’s railways, according to the Railway Association of Canada.

The threat of service disruption due to a work stoppage led CPKC and Canadian National to begin shipping embargoes last week to avoid leaving critical freight unattended. Executives from both rail carriers have reported shippers diverting freight to other transportation modes, including trucking, in anticipation of a work stoppage.

CPKC in a statement said it recognizes disruption already is occurring “and will intensify until this dispute is resolved.”

Separately, unionized dockworkers across the East and Gulf Coast are threatening to strike in October. 

The worst-case scenario, which would almost certainly re-ignite inflation, involves multiple strikes across various transportation modes in North America that could begin as early as Thursday. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 15:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/FZIeXSv Tyler Durden

$1 Million Gold Bars For The First Time Ever!

$1 Million Gold Bars For The First Time Ever!

Authored by Mike Maharrey Via Money Metals,

For the first time ever, a 400-ounce bar of gold is worth $1 million.

No wonder so many central banks and investors are piling up the yellow metal.

We hit the $1 million gold bar milestone on Friday when the price of gold topped $2,500 for the first time.

The price of gold is up about 22 percent on the year and has set several new records along the way. 

Of course, you don’t have to have $1 million to buy a gold bar. A 400-ounce bar is quite heavy and isn’t the standard except in some markets such as Europe. In the U.S. kilo bars and 100-ounce bars are more common. But even a 100-ounce bar is nothing to sneeze at, costing a quarter-million dollars with gold at $2,500 an ounce.

Consumers can buy gold in much smaller sizes, including 1-ounce, 5-ounce, and 10-ounce bars.

It’s not so much that gold is getting more expensive. The dollar is getting weaker. The greenback hit a 7-month low on Monday as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve’s pivot to easier monetary policy. In effect, this means more inflation. 

In fact, the central bank already loosened monetary policy when it quietly announced that it would begin to taper balance sheet reduction in June. 

The balance sheet serves as a direct pipeline to the money supply. When the Fed buys assets – primarily U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities – it does so with money created out of thin air. Those assets go on the balance sheet and the new money gets injected into the economy.

This expansion of the money supply is, by definitioninflation, and as the dollar depreciates, gold gets more expensive in dollar terms.

As the Fed cuts rates and eventually ends balance sheet reduction, the pace of inflation will increase, meaning a more rapid depreciation of the dollar.

As economist Daniel Lacalle explained, “Gold protects many investors against the erosion of the currency’s purchasing power, i.e., inflation, without the extreme volatility of Bitcoin. If the market discounts further monetary expansion to cover the accumulated deficits, it is normal for the investor to seek protection with gold, which has centuries of history as an alternative to fiduciary money and offers a low-volatility hedge against currency debasement.”

This explains why so many central banks are adding gold to their reserves.

Central banks globally added a net 483 tons of gold through the first six months of the year,  5 percent above the record of 460 tons in H1 2023.

Central banks typically hold dollars in the form of U.S. Treasuries. The market price of government bonds has fallen 7 percent between 2019 and 2024. As a result, many central banks face latent losses from a slump in the value of their assets. One way to offset this dollar depreciation is to buy gold. 

This is exactly what’s happening. The share of dollars making up global reserves has dropped by 14 percent since the turn of the century.

There is no reason to think this trend is going to reverse any time soon. In fact, de-dollarization seems more likely to accelerate than slow down. That means gold will likely set more milestones in the months and years ahead.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 13:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/YnX6oqI Tyler Durden

RFK Jr Campaign Mulling “Joining Forces With Trump” Because We ‘Run The Risk Of Enabling A Harris/Walz Presidency’

RFK Jr Campaign Mulling “Joining Forces With Trump” Because We ‘Run The Risk Of Enabling A Harris/Walz Presidency’

Just days after refuting reports that RFK Jr approached Harris for a cabinet position, his running mate, Nicole Shanahan just dropped a bombshell during a podcast that could change the race considerably.

Appearing on the ‘Impact Theory’ podcast (that was filmed yesterday), Shanahan said they are debating whether to stay in the race or drop out and join forces with Trump:

There’s two options that we’re looking at…

…and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Waltz presidency because we draw more votes from Trump.

Or we walk away right now and join forces with with Donald Trump and explain to our base why we’re making this decision.”

Watch the brief clip below:

Shanahan is clearly disillusioned at the anti-democratic methods that the Democratic Party have pulled to stall RFK Jr’s progress:

“...the DNC made it impossible for us…

they have banned us, shadow-banned us. kept us off stages. manipulated polls. used lawfare against us. sued us in every possible State. They’ve even planted insiders into our campaign to disrupt it, and to create actual legal issues for us.

I mean the extent by which the sabotage they’ve unleashed upon us is mindblowing.

I mean we’re still learning new ways that they have sabotaged us.

I really wanted a fair shot at this election and I believed in the America that I a little girl pledged an allegiance to…”

The full podcast is viewable here…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 13:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/QxolIaJ Tyler Durden

As Israel Recovers Bodies Of 6 Hostages, Victims’ Families Blast Netanyahu For No Deal

As Israel Recovers Bodies Of 6 Hostages, Victims’ Families Blast Netanyahu For No Deal

The Israeli military (IDF) on Tuesday announced the recovery of six hostage bodies from the Gaza Strip. They have all been identified as victims who had been kidnapped alive on Oct.7: Avraham Munder, Alex Dancyg, Chaim Peri, Yagev Buchshtab, Yoram Metzger, and Nadav Popplewell.

The grim fact that most of the IDF’s recent recoveries are of deceased persons doesn’t bode well for the remainder 109 hostages, who have been held prisoners of Hamas in a raging war zone for more than ten months.

Associated Press

The Hostages Families and Missing Forum called on the Israeli government to “do everything in its power” to finalize a long-delayed agreement to gain the release of the rest. More are feared already dead.

“Israel has a moral and ethical obligation to return all the murdered for dignified burial and to bring all living hostages home for rehabilitation,” the group said. “The immediate return of the remaining 109 hostages can only be achieved through a negotiated deal.”

On Monday we noted that Secretary Blinken while in Tel Aviv issued words praising Netanyahu for accepting a US-proposed ceasefire, but one that doesn’t actually exist within the framework of real negotiations with Hamas.

A mere 12 hours later, Netanyahu told the hostage victims’ family members in a meeting that “I’m not sure there will be a deal, but if there is a deal – the deal will be one that preserves … Israel’s strategic assets.” And more:

During the meeting, Netanyahu also doubled down on maintaining control over the Philadelphi Corridor, which has become a major sticking point in the continuing ceasefire negotiations, reported Walla.

He said Israel won’t withdraw from the area “under any circumstances”. This after months of consistent statements vowing the stay the course in Gaza until the full eradication of the Hamas terror organization.

As of Tuesday Blinken is in Egypt, and Israel has also sent a negotiating team to meet with Egyptian and Qatari mediators to consider the latest proposals of a possible ceasefire.

The Israeli and US narrative is that Hamas has already rejected the newest proposed deal, while Hamas and the Palestinian side have said that Netanyahu simply agreed to attach non-starters to a deal he knew would never get off the ground.

Meanwhile, in Israel victims’ families and their advocates are still protesting, with Mati Dancyg, whose father Alex’s body was among the latest recoveries, accusing the Netanyahu government of “choosing to abandon the hostages in order to survive.”

“He and all the hostages could have been brought back,” Dancyg said. “Netanyahu chose to sacrifice the hostages. Karma will judge him and he will pay for it, big time.”

* * *

Below are some of the latest developments via Al Jazeera:

  • Israeli forces bombed a school in western Gaza City, killing at least 12 people, including several children, according to Gaza’s civil defence.
  • Israel’s military, without offering evidence, claimed Hamas operatives were “embedded” in the school, using a hidden “command centre” there.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has travelled to Egypt to meet with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, as part of what he believes may be a last-ditch effort to reach a Gaza ceasefire.
  • After their meeting, Sisi said the time had come to end the Gaza war, which risked throwing the region into a broader conflict that is “difficult to imagine”.
  • Hamas rejected US claims that it is blocking a ceasefire deal, saying instead that Israel has added new terms impeding the deal. The US, Hamas said, is showing “blind bias” towards Israel and enabling it to “commit more crimes against defenceless civilians”.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 13:00

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What Milton Friedman Said 5 Decades Ago About Government Spending Still Holds True Today

What Milton Friedman Said 5 Decades Ago About Government Spending Still Holds True Today

Authored by John Robson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A friend’s mother was fond of saying there’s no good way to do a bad thing, and no bad time to do a good one. It’s true of public policy as of life generally, which is why both the public and politicians should talk more about principles and less about motives or tactics. And just as I was wrestling with applying this maxim to the current fiscal mess, someone Xed the classic Milton Friedman line to “Keep your eye on how much the Government is spending, because that is the true tax.”

Milton Friedman, recipient of the 1976 Nobel Prize for economic science, speaks during a White House event in Washington on May 9, 2002. Alex Wong/Getty Images

I’m not sure when Friedman said it. But he died in 2006 aged 94, and the clip shows him in middle age, so it was around half a century back. We should have listened, because it has applied consistently since and still does.

In fact, I’d just read a column by my former colleague Randall Denley about an administration of ostensibly conservative inclinations touting its “prudent, responsible” fiscal management while “tracking a clear path” back to a balanced budget from its current massive scary deficit. As Denley added tartly, “As it turns out, tracking a balanced budget is like tracking a unicorn. The tracking is easy, but finding one is hard.”

Indeed. Or at least indeed re the finding. The tracking isn’t as easy as it ought to be, because government budgets are infamously tangled forests of accounting conventions, focus-grouped prose, economic projections, and jiggery-pokery regarding long-term liabilities. And because neither the authors nor most of the audience adhere to Friedman’s wise words about what exactly we should be keeping an eye on as we navigate these deep dark woods.

As was his wont, Friedman compressed much potentially complex truth into short, clear, vivid words, immediately adding, “There is no such thing as an unbalanced budget.” Which is not addled but Chestertonian in its paradoxical brilliance because, Friedman went on, “You pay for it either in the form of taxes, or indirectly in the form of inflation or debt.”

Exactly. The budget is, by definition, balanced by one of those proper accounting conventions that says for every dollar of assets in the ledger there must be a corresponding dollar in liabilities, and vice versa. Thus, what looks like cash the state dropped from heaven as we wandered the desert beyond the Red Ink seeking the promised land of social justice, is actually offset somewhere by something. It must be. There’s no magic money tree in Ottawa, in Washington, in Toronto, in Victoria, or for that matter in Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang or Teheran. Whatever governments spend, they must take in somehow.

This maxim does not, of course, necessarily mandate my own preferred minimal “night watchman” state that defends the realm, suppresses force and fraud, and otherwise leaves adults to work out their own salvation in fear and trembling or whatever décor and mood seems best to them. But it does require that we discuss what the government is doing, and weigh its costs against its benefits, with a clear sense of what both entail.

The benefits of public spending, or especially regulation, which takes and uses property in ways harder even to track than, say, the long-term debt of Ontario Hydro, now lurking in the books of the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation that I doubt one voter in 100 has heard of, are rarely as great as proponents claim. And they are especially hard to measure when expressed in vague “The return on that investment in terms of what that will do and what it will pay for will be tremendous” decades later verbiage or “those are where the jobs are going to be, not just a couple of years from now, but a decade from now, a generation from now” rhetoric. How politicians know where jobs will be a generation hence is not obvious. But I digress.

The point is, there is a fairly clear way of measuring the cost. At least there would be if we were straightforward in our accounting and in our approach to funding, and put all spending into the on-book budget and all liabilities into the on-book debt. As Friedman also said, and this one I know was in 1977, “The true cost of government is what government spends, not what is labeled as ‘taxes.’” Shifting it to borrowing, the central bank printing press, or some “Crown corporation” doesn’t make it less burdensome. It just makes it harder to grasp and discuss, which makes it more burdensome partly because we can be persuaded, or can persuade ourselves, to ignore it longer.

So here’s my plea. In debating what government should attempt, and how big it should be, let’s agree that its real size, its real cost, is what it spends, and keep that side of the ledger as clean and clear as humanly possible.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/20/2024 – 12:40

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