Month: August 2024

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Let the DNC Frolics Begin

“We head to Chicago on a wave of euphoria, exuberance, exultation, excitement and even, you might say, ecstasy.”

– Maureen Dowd, The New York Times

Looking a little insurrection-ish at Chicago’s United Center all of a sudden as Illinois Governor Jabba the Pritzker orders a wall built around the perimeter to protect the Democratic Party from its very own basket of deplorables — the pro-Hamas, Antifa / BLM nose-ring-for-lunch bunch — with the state’s National Guard “on standby.” The New York Post and other news sources report 100,000 anti-Israel protesters migrating there to liven-up a convention that also has the potential to go off-script inside the arena — since the script was written by a handful of party mandarins, with the gamed consent of the convened delegates, who might be a little ticked off about the deal.

What the party needs most this week is a plausible aura that it is firmly in control of events, having pulled off coup-after-coup on its own rank-and-file. Most recently, Pelosi & friends passed the black spot to “Joe Biden.” (The easy way or the hard way.) He took the hint and dropped out. But then, how exactly did Veep Kamala get plugged into his slot? Five minutes prior, they were, like, yccchhhh, her? And then, two seconds later, somebody arranged a pre-convention Zoom call “virtual vote” of the delegates — like a Las Vegas David Copperfield magic trick — followed by “certification!” (By whom? Answer: the certifiers.) Badda bing, badda bang! Their “democracy” got rolled.

So, you can imagine that things might fly out of control in exact proportion to the Mandarins’ desperate need to seem legitimately in control — when they are just a clique of scared-stiff tyrants running scams on their own people — and the result looks like the Democrats’ certified metamorphosis into the Party of Chaos.

Why scared-stiff?

Because of a long list of serious crimes against the American people over the past decade, various treasons committed under color-of-law, for which they fear prosecution and punishment if the wrong person gets elected.

Just in the normal course of things in Chicago, local ABC-7 News reports, “At least 23 shot, 5 fatally, in weekend gun violence across city” over the pre-convention weekend. You have to wonder whether this ordinary background lawlessness will wash over into the political turmoil certain to roil the streets. Lootin’, anyone? Businesses in the downtown “Loop” district have boarded up their windows. As if a measly sheet of Hollywood can keep them out.

I happened to be at the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago, more in the role of a larval journalist than an activist, but right there in the action.

I drove to Chicago from upstate New York with my college pal Bill Murphy in his beater Rambler — the car with reclining seats you could sleep on! (We did, in various parking lots.) Prior to the event, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, JFK’s brother, an avowed anti-war candidate, marched methodically through the primaries collecting delegates, giving hope to the vast Baby Boomer college demographic that he would end the stupid war in Vietnam and the military draft with it. When he got shot in the head at the Ambassador Hotel June 5, the night he won the California primary, everything changed.

The then-mandarins of the party looked to cram in the pro-war veep Hubert Humphrey to run against Richard Nixon. Left on the battlefield were two anti-war knights, Minnesota Senator Eugene (“Clean Gene”) McCarthy, a cranky poet without much fight in him, and George McGovern, a not-quite-ready-for-prime-time prairie socialist from the nowhere state of South Dakota. You might be amazed to hear that the mainstream media of the day was against the war, and pretty hostile to the political establishment that ran things from President Lyndon Johnson on down to Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago — with the CIA and FBI lurking darkly in their shadows, busy assassinating folks. Walter Cronkite had a shit-fit on-the-air watching Mayor Daley’s thugs push around network journalists (esp. Dan Rather) working the convention floor. The party emerged from the convention in a very bad odor. Humphrey lost in November.

Daley and his police were a rough bunch, and treated the hippie mobs in Grant Park and down on Michigan Avenue quite harshly, with tear gas and billy-clubs. The National Guard was poised visibly on the roof of the Art Institute with rifles trained down at the hippies below. Things got pretty yeasty. It’s a wonder nobody got killed. The party went ahead and nominated Humphrey with ruthless efficiency. In the end, the 1968 convention riots were an act of futility. The ’68 convention was the public debut of the organism that we call the blob today — the Deep State in action. And it was the twinkling-out of hippie idealism. The Vietnam War ran another seven years until it ended ignominiously under Gerald Ford, followed by disco, inflation, and the offshoring of US industry.

This time around, the news media has been fully absorbed into the blob, doing all its bidding, like the blob’s personal Chat GPT, while the blob itself has grown to be a larger and more potent governing entity than the flimsy scaffold of elected officials who front for it. But the Democratic Party has faltered badly in its years’ long efforts to cover for the blob, mainly by lying to the American people about everything. Running “Joe Biden” in 2020 was a dishonest act of desperation that only worked with a rigged election and then prosecuting anyone who attempted to complain. The party knew that “JB” was a mental phantom four years ago, and they had the effrontery to try running him again in ’24, until ol’ “Joe” made it impossible with his demented public behavior.

They also know that Kamala Harris is an empty vessel with a drinking problem, but they’ve desperately pulled out all the stops to make her appear legitimate. Her performance the past three weeks has not exactly been reassuring. Her running mate, Governor Walz, comes off straight-up insane. Why would they now not attempt to dump them with the same bad faith they installed them?

Gawd knows what mayhem might rock the streets outside the United Center. Recent years of degenerate USA life have produced a youth cohort with a staggering rate of mental illness. You’ve already seen plenty of how dark Antifa can get with its murderous trans cadres itching for action. But you’ve also got to wonder how the formal speeches by the party nabobs will go over? Might there be any booing of the elite? How will the crowd greet Mrs. Pelosi, the party’s consiglieri who arranged things as they are now? What on earth can Hillary Clinton say about the nominee she openly loathes? Will Bill Clinton, painted as a sexual predator by the Me-Too caucus, get a love-bath or a cold-shoulder? How false will the party’s unity seem? Will surprise motions arise from the floor to change-up the pre-scripted program?

There are many more ways for things to go wrong this week than the simple dynamics that were in-play fifty-six years ago in Chicago.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

US equities rallied for the 8th straight day today (despite Leading Indicators slumping for the 29th straight month), with Nasdaq up 13% off its post-yen-carry-chaos lows – the longest win streak since Nov 2023.

Small Caps and Nasdaq led the rip today, The Dow lagged, but all the majors were higher. The last few minutes of the day saw yet more panic-buying pressure…

VIX spiked at the open today (back above 16) but faded all day to end modestly lower with a 14 handle…

Another major short squeeze lifted Small Caps…

Source: Bloomberg

Mag7 stocks continued their dramatic rebound, rallying up to a key technical resistance level…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its collapse, as the DNC unveiled its Kam-unist manifesto…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold held on to its gains amid the dollar weakness, holding near record highs above $2500…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were relatively quiet today (though choppy) with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1bps, 30Y +2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2y remains above 4.00% (and well above last week’s CPI spike lows), but the 30Y has retraced all of the spike and then some…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was hit overnight, but bitcoin rallied back above $59,000 as stocks surged during the US day session, back up near pre-CPI levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude was clubbed like a baby seal today, with WTI testing back down to a $74 handle (at post-payrolls drop lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, be careful what you’re betting on from Powell at Jackson Hole this week…

Source: Bloomberg

The last few years it’s been a sell-the-news event.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has imposed a multimillion-dollar fine on Carl Icahn, a famed activist investor, and his company, Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP), for not disclosing Icahn’s billions in personal margin loans. These loans were secured using Icahn’s stake in IEP as collateral.

The SEC wrote in a press release that Icahn and IEP failed to “disclose information relating to Icahn’s pledges of IEP securities as collateral to secure personal margin loans worth billions of dollars under agreements with various lenders.” 

The SEC said Icahn, who is IEP’s controlling shareholder and Chairman of the board of directors of IEP’s general partner, pledged anywhere from 51% to 82% of IEP shares “as collateral to secure personal margin loans worth billions of dollars under agreements with various lenders.” The failure to disclose that fact to shareholders or federal regulators resulted in IEP and Icahn agreeing to pay $1.5 million and $500,000 in civil penalties. 

The SEC continued:

Notwithstanding Icahn’s various margin loan agreements and amendments, IEP failed to disclose Icahn’s pledges of IEP securities as required in its Form 10K until February 25, 2022. Icahn also failed to file amendments to Schedule 13D describing his personal margin loan agreements and amendments, which dated back to at least 2005, and failed to attach required guaranty agreements. Icahn’s failure to file the required amendments to Schedule 13D persisted until at least July 9, 2023. 

Osman Nawaz, a senior SEC official, wrote in a statement, “The federal securities laws imposed independent disclosure obligations on both Icahn and IEP,” adding, “These disclosures would have revealed that Icahn pledged over half of IEP’s outstanding shares at any given time.” 

The investigation began shortly after short-seller Hindenburg Research released a short report on IEP in early May 2023. Shares of the company crashed in the days and weeks following the report.

• Hindenburg Unveils Short Position In Icahn Enterprises, Says Company “Inflated By 75%+”

• Icahn Sees $3.1 Billion In Wealth Evaporate After Hindenburg Research Report

• Hindenburg Raises “Critical New Questions” About Icahn’s Increasing Share Pledges In New Report

At the time, Hindenburg wrote that Icahn “has made a classic mistake of taking on too much leverage in the face of sustained losses: a combination that rarely ends well.” The firm called IEP a “Ponzi-like structure.” 

The SEC said Icahn cooperated with investigators during the investigation. In a filing on Monday, IEP noted there was no  “substantive” communication with the US Attorney’s office since the initial inquiry in 2023. 

Following today’s announcement from the SEC, Hindenburg reiterated its short in IEP: 

Icahn rightly got charged by the SEC for failing to disclose details of his massive margin loan.

The company is still operating a ponzi-like structure, as we originally alleged. Icahn Enterprises lost almost $1 billion last quarter alone yet is paying out a distribution equivalent to an annualized ~47% of its net asset value (NAV).

The company currently trades at an ~88% premium to its reported NAV, even when ignoring its aggressive marks on its illiquid private investments.

Rather than blame us for his own investment failings, Icahn should put his money where his mouth is. Following our report, the company announced a $500 million buyback and has since bought back zero units. Instead the company has actually sold $99 million of units through an at-the-market offering in the past 2 quarters, continuing to dump overvalued shares on unsuspecting retail investors.

We remain short units of $IEP.

Icahn rightly got charged by the SEC for failing to disclose details of his massive margin loan.

The company is still operating a ponzi-like structure, as we originally alleged. Icahn Enterprises lost almost $1 billion last quarter alone yet is paying out a distribution…

— Hindenburg Research (@HindenburgRes) August 19, 2024

In markets, IEP fell 6% into the $15 handle in the US cash session, hovering at lows not seen in decades. Shares are down nearly 76.5% since peaking around the $69 handle in the first quarter of 2021.

Notice the big surge in bearish IEP bets following Hindenburg’s report last May. The latest data from Bloomberg shows 15% of the float is short, or about 7.335 million shares. 

Icahn told Bloomberg, “We are glad to put this matter behind us and will continue to focus on operating the business for the benefit of unit holders.” 

Bears, like Hindenburg, still believe there is more downside.

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

Heavier and longer summer monsoon rains are said to be fuelling a rise in child marriages in Pakistan, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). Human rights workers are warning such weddings are on the rise “due to climate-driven economic insecurity”. Great story since it holds out a small hope that banning hydrocarbon use can help solve a problem of forced and under-aged female abuse that has been endemic in many cultures since time immemorial. It is just a shame about the facts. According to the World Bank climate change knowledge portal, monsoon rains in June, July and August in the period 1991-2020 were marginally less in Pakistan than fell during 1961-1990.

In an error-strewn article reproduced in many publications around the world, the French State-owned agency claimed that flooding in Pakistan in 2022 plunged a third of the country under water. Looking at a contour map would show this is unlikely – impossible even – and the true level of inundation was around 8-10%. Even the BBC’s statistical programme More or Less confirmed the much lower figures. AFP claims that “scientists say” climate change is making the monsoons heavier and longer, “raising the risk of landslides, floods and long-term crop damage”. This is said to have led to a new trend of “monsoon brides” as families give away their female children in exchange for money. But massive flooding in low-lying parts of Pakistan is not new. In the recent past – in 1950, 1992, 1993 and 2010 – it killed more people than it did in 2022.

The AFP nonsense story is just the latest in a tidal wave of mainstream fear-mongering designed to boost Net Zero. It takes an emotional theme and tacks on unprovable claims of climate damage caused by humans. The emotion is obvious, but false claims about the volume of rainfall and the inundation of a recent flood are made. Do the people who write this stuff think that nobody will check their facts and sources? Apparently not.

AGF is an organ of the French State and it is all in on grooming the world to accept Net Zero. The climate side is run by Marlowe Hood who describes himself as the “Herald of the Anthropocene”. Certainly, all this heralding seems to be very profitable for Hood who was recently awarded £88,000 by the Foundation arm of a Spanish bank heavily involved in financing green technologies. Recently, he played a major part in organising the eventual retraction of a paper written by a number of Italian physics professors who examined climate and weather data put out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and concluded there was no climate emergency.

Led by Professor Gianluca Alimonti of Milan University, the professors found that rainfall intensity and frequency was static in many parts of the world. Other meteorological categories including natural disasters, floods, droughts and ecosystem productivity showed no “clear positive trend of extreme events”. None of this would be much of a surprise to anyone who has read the IPCC reports, but Hood claimed the data was “grossly manipulated” and “fundamentally flawed”. The distinguished science writer Roger Pielke Jr. has covered the Alimonti scandal in great detail and notes: “Shenanigans continue in climate science with influential scientists teaming up with journalists to corrupt peer review”.

Three AFP writers are currently taking a six-month sabbatical on the latest Oxford Climate Journalism Network (OCJN) course which is funded by elite billionaire money including contributions from Sir Christopher Hohn, a past provider for the eco louts at Extinction Rebellion. They are Ivan Couronne, Future of the Planet editor, Sara Hussein, Future of the Planet reporter and agency editor Linda Tonn. The course provides an immersion in the correct political narrative surrounding climate ‘collapse’, the so-called ‘settled’ science and the need for extreme Net Zero measures. This term, BBC participants include senior climate data reporter Becky Dale and Samah Hanaysha, a London-based broadcaster for BBC Arabic. Interestingly, all these participants will be joined by Ellen Ormesher of DeSmog, a foundation-funded operation that publishes a ‘blacklist’ of so-called climate deniers. Sadly, the list does not appear to be regularly updated these days, possibly on the grounds that it has become too large!

Past speakers at the OCJN have suggested “fines and imprisonment” for those expressing scepticism about “well supported” science and cautioned journalists against the use of photographs of people enjoying themselves in the open air at times of “extreme” summer weather.

Infantile suggestions are provided asking participants to write a story about a mango, discussing why it isn’t as tasty as the year before due to climate change.

All of which explains how stories about climate change leading to more child marriages end up in the increasingly unpopular prints.

For the last three years, Paul Homewood has chronicled the climate bloopers at the BBC and he summarised this year’s edition in yesterday’s Daily Sceptic. It notes numerous howlers which have added to the gaiety of the nation. How we laughed when we were reminded of Matt – “Yes, we have no bananas” – McGrath reporting that climate change posed an enormous threat to banana supply. Production has increased six-fold since the 1960s. Or the no more beer piss-take. Apparently, it could get too hot to grow hops in Kent although that is not a problem for growers in warmer central European climes, but again don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. Then there are the coral reefs about to die off, while in the real world the Great Barrier Reef continue to show stonking levels of record growth. Finally, we have the much loved rare bird sighting story. Last year it was the turn of the black-winged stilt that is moving north due to climate change. As it appears to have done for hundreds of years, according to ornithological reports. One unfortunate passing passerine even being shot in 1684. Again, as with the child bride story, why are basic facts not checked to stop all this alarmist drivel being printed in the first place? Attending climate grooming courses funded by elite billionaires with an obvious political agenda would fill any independent, investigating journalist with horror.

As Homewood notes, many have concluded that the BBC’s coverage of climate change cannot be trusted. His comments could equally apply to many other mainstream outlets. “For years their treatment has been one-sided, full of misinformation and at times factual errors, along with the omission of alternative views and inconvenient facts,” he observes. Quite so.

General Motors continues reversing its pandemic-era hiring spree, during which it hired thousands of engineering and software development employees to bolster its ambitions in the electric vehicle space and connected-car services. As the downturn in the EV market persists, consumer demand weakens, and recession risks rise, the legacy automaker is preparing to cut at least a thousand tech employees to streamline operations. 

CNBC reported Monday that layoffs at GM will affect at least 1,000 salaried employees globally in its software and services division. The layoffs will include 600 jobs at the company’s tech campus near Detroit. This comes five months after the automaker’s software chief, Mike Abbott, stepped down, citing ‘health reasons.’ 

In June, GM promoted two former Apple executives, Baris Cetinok and Dave Richardson, to advance its electric, autonomous, and connected vehicles. Both executives were hired under Abbott last year. 

“As we build GM’s future, we must simplify for speed and excellence, make bold choices, and prioritize the investments that will have the greatest impact,” a GM spokesman said in an emailed statement, adding, “As a result, we’re reducing certain teams within the Software and Services organization. We are grateful to those who helped establish a strong foundation that positions GM to lead moving forward.”

The layoffs will account for approximately 1.3% of the company’s global salaried workforce of 76,000 as of the end of last year, including about 53,000 US salaried employees.

In April 2023, about 5,000 salaried workers opted to take GM’s buyout offer. The legacy automaker has been aiming for $2 billion in cost cuts over the next few years after cutting hundreds of executive-level and salaried jobs earlier in that year. 

GM’s cost-cutting measures come as concerns of an industry-wide downturn grow, particularly with the slowdown in the EV space. With interest rates at multi-decade highs and elevated new and used auto prices, affordability concerns persist among consumers.

Shares of GM are well off the pandemic highs.  

Only interest rate cuts will save the struggling EV market. 

On Monday Hamas and Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claimed responsibility for a rare terrorist attack which targeted the heart of Israel’s Tel Aviv. That’s when a powerful explosive device ripped through a south Tel Aviv neighborhood. A suicide bomber was observed carrying a backpack before it apparently detonated early, killing the culprit and injuring an innocent bystander who was on a motorized scooter.

Times of Israel reports that “The Shin Bet said it was still working to confirm the identity of the bomber, a man in his 50s, although Hebrew media outlets reported that he was believed to be a Palestinian from the Nablus area in the West Bank.” The last suicide bombings in Tel Aviv were in the early and mid-2000s.

Israeli police and intelligence have labeled it a terror attack after their initial investigation. Not long after, Hamas and PIJ confirmed that they were behind the joint operation, and promised more suicide attacks to come.

A statement confirmed responsibility for “the implementation of the martyrdom operation that took place yesterday evening Sunday in the city of Tel Aviv.” In reference to suicide attacks, the groups said the “martyrdom operations” in occupied lands will “return to the fore as long as the occupation’s executions and civilian displacement operations continue and the policy of assassinations continues.”

Such individual suicide bombings in Tel Aviv or other densely populated areas of Israel has become more of a rarity over recent years, and were more frequent in the 1990s and early 2000s during the Second Intifada.

It was particularly the period of the early 2000s which saw hundreds of Israelis wounded and killed by a series of suicide attacks.

As for this latest, authorities have speculated that a nearby busy synagogue may have likely been the intended target:

“It may be that the terrorist planned to go to a nearby synagogue or maybe a shopping center. We can’t understand yet why it exploded at that point,” he said.

A Tel Aviv resident told Ynet that at the time of the explosion, more than 80 people had been inside the nearby synagogue for evening prayers.

ISRAEL: TERROR AVERTED: An explosion in Tel Aviv appears to have been caused by a suicide bomber in failed major terror attack that detonated too early. The terrorist was the only one killed. His backpack was loaded with nails for maximum damage H’Y. pic.twitter.com/ZBqOewx7PS

— KolHaolam (@KolHaolam) August 18, 2024

On Monday local reports say there has been a noticeable increase in police patrolling the streets and a heavier security presence around Tel Aviv.

Likely any entry points into Israel from the West Bank are also being more closely guarded and monitored, as Israeli society remains fearful of a potential return to that prior era of suicide attacks from the Intifada eras. The last big terror suicide bombing to hit Tel Aviv may have been as much as 18 years ago.

Authored by Peter Hanseler via VoiceFromRussia.ch,

Ukraine’s attack in the Kursk region is prompting Western media and “experts” to make statements that have nothing to do with reality. It will fail…

 

President Putin

 

Snapshot

There are currently around 10,000 Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. To date, the Ukrainians have succeeded in capturing around 50 villages and the town of Sudzha. The entire conquered area measures approx. 1,000 km2 – this corresponds to 0.0058% of the area of Russia.

The aim seemed to be to capture the nuclear power plant located southwest of Kursk in order to gain control of it. In the meantime, the Russians have succeeded in stopping the Ukrainians’ advance to the north and east. There the Ukrainians are digging themselves in. In the west of the deployment zone, the Ukrainian forces are moving in a westerly direction. The momentum is slowing down noticeably.

Red line: Russia-Ukraine border – colored yellow: Approximate territorial gains as of August 17, 2024 – Source: Military Summary

At the same time, on the night of August 17, the Ukrainians once again tried to destroy the Crimean Bridge using all available means – drones, cruise missiles, HIMARS, etc. They did not succeed.

The operation in the Kursk region marked the first time Russia had been attacked since 1941. At that time, almost 4 million soldiers invaded Russia. They failed before Moscow in the winter of 1941. However, the war lasted over three years longer and left behind a mountain of corpses of around 40 million people.

What are Ukraine’s goals – have they been achieved?

If one looks at the scale (troops deployed and territory gained), the question arises as to what the Ukrainians are aiming to achieve with this military action.

What is important in this context is the fact that the military situation for Ukraine on the almost 2,000 kilometre-long front is dire. The Russians are advancing faster and faster. Ukrainian losses in the last two months have totalled over 60,000 per month. This means that the loss rate has doubled this summer in a long-term comparison. The Ukrainians are unable to compensate for these losses despite the extremely aggressive forced recruitment. At the moment, conscripts in Ukraine are being hunted down and thrown onto the front line after a quick bleaching period of a few days – a human tragedy.

The Ukrainian leadership is well aware of this and a few weeks ago (President) Zelensky announced that the Russians would have to be involved in the next round of possible peace negotiations. On the one hand, this is an admission that the ‘peace negotiations’ at the Bürgenstock in Switzerland, as predicted by us, were a complete failure and that (President) Zelensky has lost all initiative and political freedom of movement.

However, the endeavour to negotiate with the Russians was already doomed to failure before the action in the Kursk region. The legalistic Russians no longer recognise (President) Zelensky as the legitimate leader of Ukraine. And rightly so: (President) Zelensky has been ruling without a constitutional basis since May. Consequently, we put the title of the president in brackets in our articles. A negotiated solution involving (President) Zelensky was therefore ruled out even before the Kursk offensive.

Consequently, the Ukrainian leadership is seeking a liberating strike with the action in Kursk; this may well make sense from the Ukrainian perspective if a sustainable result could be achieved in the medium term.

It can be assumed that the Ukrainians are pursuing several goals with this action: On the one hand, they hoped that with their invasion of the Kursk region, the Russians would withdraw their troops from the front and thus halt or at least reduce their advance along the entire line of contact. In this way, the Ukrainians hoped to achieve what the Russians had achieved with the opening of the Kharkov front a few months ago.

The Ukrainians have demonstrably failed to achieve the first objective: the advance of Russian troops in the various sections of the front continues unabated.

The second objective was to hold the spoils for possible negotiations by capturing the Kursk nuclear power plant and taking as many Russian civilians as possible hostage.

These goals do not appear to be achievable either. The capture of the Kursk nuclear power plant has failed and appears to be out of reach in the future. Nevertheless, this nuclear power plant poses a real threat to a large part of the Russian population, for example if it were to be hit by HIMARS missiles. By taking civilians hostage, the Ukrainians will indeed ensure that the Russians will hold back in their fightback with heavy weapons, which will lead to a delay in the recapture.

However, the Ukrainians will buy their initial success at a very high price. As with the drone attacks in Moscow at the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainians have not succeeded in frightening the Russians with this action either. What’s more, in the past – as was the case during the Second World War, for example – such terrorist actions have not borne fruit at all, but have led to implacability on the Russian side. This time will be no different.

A comparison with the Battle of Kursk is ridiculous

Incidentally, a comparison with the Battle of Kursk is ridiculous: almost 800,000 soldiers took part in Operation Citadel in July 1943 on the German side and almost two million on the Russian side. The respective sides were led by the finest commanders. Wehrmacht: von Manstein, von Kluge, Hoth, Kempf, Model, Guderian, Jodl, etc. Soviet Union: Zhukov, Rokossovski, Vatutin, Konev, etc.

It is considered the largest battle ever fought in world history and the last offensive of the Wehrmacht on the territory of the Soviet Union, which ended disastrously for the Germans and left behind a mountain of corpses totalling around 800,000 people.

A comparison is therefore in no way appropriate.

How does the West portray these events?

On 15 August, the Ukrainians speak of 75 villages taken, the Russians of 40.

I know the area around Kursk personally. Huge plains, interspersed with small villages or hamlets with a few houses, sometimes a petrol station, a few small shops and possibly a police station. Everything completely open – no Russian army for miles around. If two armoured personnel carriers with twenty soldiers drive in, that village is considered conquered. To describe this occupation as a ‘conquest’ is therefore misleading and pure propaganda. It is true that the Ukrainians have set up a Kursk military command. However, this does not change the fact that 1,000 km2 of sparsely populated territory will not bring about any strategic change. In addition, the troops now in the region must be supplied. This can only be done at the expense of the troops on the main front.

The fact that this coup is nevertheless being celebrated in part as a turning point in the war is merely an indication of the desperate overall situation in Ukraine.

In December 1944, the Wehrmacht attempted to turn the tide in the Ardennes in a similar way (Battle of the Bulge). After a rapid advance by the last well-equipped German armoured troops that lasted a few days, the offensive quickly collapsed under the overwhelming forces of the Allies, who were initially taken completely by surprise. There is every indication that this military action will meet the same fate for Ukraine.

Optimism in the West is a chimera

The West has already announced that it will supply even more weapons. The Ukrainians’ main problem, however, is that the huge losses mean that no personnel – and certainly no qualified personnel – is available. This clearly reflects the West’s perfidious strategy: fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

The Ukrainian people are aware of this.

The Ukrainian people are unable and unwilling to go on

I have established good contacts in Ukraine. I cannot go into detail about the nature of these contacts, but they are sources that allow me to gain a relatively good impression of the mood of the people. These are not political sources, but sources that cut across all social classes and the whole country. What do they actually mean and say – what is the real mood in Ukraine?

The people have had enough – of the war, of the corruption, of the power cuts, of the heat, of Zelensky, who came to power with the promise of peace with a fantastic result and betrayed his people. The people want peace.

The question of whether they would give up Crimea, Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia in order to achieve peace is not really an issue. 90% answer ‘yes’. Western media report 25% to 45%. It is worth remembering that as recently as December, the remnants of the Ukrainian middle class still largely assumed that they would be able to win the war. There is nothing left of this optimism.

The only question that now remains is whether, how and when the people will be able to assert their will. Only time will tell.

The Western media, which constantly pretend to be on the side of the Ukrainian people and to represent their interests, show through their deliberately false reporting that they are completely indifferent to the fate of those people.

Conclusion

History teaches us that a last stand by a sinking army does not lead to lasting results (see the Battle of the Bulge in 1944).

This action in the Kursk region was only possible thanks to a surprise effect – the Ukrainians succeeded in doing this, the Russians actually allowed themselves to be surprised. Whether this military action was made possible by negligence, betrayal or a deliberate but incorrect risk analysis is completely unclear and ultimately irrelevant. The Russians always stand behind their leadership in times of need and will push the Ukrainians back out of Russia despite any sacrifices.

Anyone who claims that this action was carried out without close leadership from Washington and London has still not recognised the nature of this conflict: The US and the UK are waging a proxy war against Russia, Ukraine is merely an implementing agent.

Ultimately, this incident is just one piece of the mosaic in a threatening overall picture that has been keeping the world on tenterhooks for months now and will probably continue to do so for some time to come.

WTF is going on…

We have Kamala-nomics propoagandists expounding that price-controls are good for deflation and half of America believes it…

And now, we have US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns…

…and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’…

“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

For context, outside of the great financial crisis, this is the worst decline in LEI since the mid ’70s!!!

She goes on to explain just what a shitshow the data is…

“In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread.”

…but no recession, nope!!

“These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to slow over the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and investments. US real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6 percent annualized in Q3 2024 and 1 percent annualized in Q4.”

And what is behind the ‘no recession’ call… US equity strength!!

So, to summarize – almost all the macro data signals weakening growth for years… but because stocks are up (and credit spreads down), there’s no recession anywhere on the horizon!!??

On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris squandered what could have been a golden opportunity to outline a clear economic vision – and instead left many wondering what exactly her plan entails, according to the Washington Post Editorial Board.

With Americans still grappling with high costs for groceries, housing, and even a simple Big Mac, Harris’s response – which WaPo characterized as “populist gimmicks” – was to blame corporate “price gouging” rather than addressing the underlying economic challenges.

According to the Post, Harris’ pledge to crack down on businesses making “excessive” profits felt more like a recycled talking point than a real strategy, drawing comparisons to the failed price controls of the Nixon era.

One way to handle it might be to level with voters, telling them that inflation spiked in 2021 mainly because the pandemic snarled supply chains, and that the Federal Reserve’s policies, which the Biden-Harris administration supported, are working to slow it. The vice president instead opted for a less forthright route: Blaming big business. She vowed to go after “price gouging” by grocery stores, landlords, pharmaceutical companies and other supposed corporate perpetrators by having the Federal Trade Commission enforce a vaguely defined “federal ban on price gouging.”

…

Harris says she’ll target companies that make “excessive” profits, whatever that means. (It’s hard to see how groceries, a notoriously low-margin business, would qualify.)

Her housing plan was also ham-fisted. While Harris correctly identified the lack of housing supply as a key issue she proposed a $25,000 down payment assistance program without addressing how it might drive prices higher—a concern the Post didn’t overlook. And while her ideas around expanding the child tax credit and earned income tax credit had more merit, the speech ultimately fell short of providing the detailed, practical solutions voters are looking for.

As Rabobank notes, Much of this is controversial. First home buyer grants have been tried the world over and many economists will tell you that they are effectively a subsidy for home-sellers as they pump up demand in supply-constrained markets. Just ask an Australian millennial or Gen Z’er where those sorts of populist demand-side policies ultimately lead a housing market.

The loudest criticism of the Harris platform (including from traditionally Democrat-friendly outlets like CNN and the Washington Post) has been reserved for the ban on price gouging. Republicans and some media outlets have likened the ban to federally imposed price controls (a-la Richard Nixon) that can ultimately lead to shortages and further inflation when the controls are eventually removed. Curiously, gold hit new all-time highs of more than $2,500/oz ahead of Harris’ speech and following news that the ban on price gouging would be announced.

Meanwhile, the Post also notes that Harris’ plan would cost money – yet she insists that she’ll hold to President Joe Biden’s pledge not to raise taxes on households earning less than $400,000 per year – which excludes 80% of taxable income.

The Harris campaign says it will raise revenue to cover these costs, but didn’t say how. And without an answer, Harris’ full plan would add $1.7 trillion to federal deficits over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan budget watchdog.

NY Times: “A Coup Is Still a Coup”

While WaPo is calling out Harris over ‘populist gimmicks,’ the NY Times‘ Maureen Dowd slammed Democrats for executing a ‘coup’ to remove Biden from the 2024 ticket.

In short, what was supposed to be a triumphant gathering in Chicago has turned into a hotbed of tension and betrayal within the Democratic Party. As top Democrats prepare for their convention this week, there’s no hiding the fact that the party’s power players have orchestrated a behind-the-scenes coup to push President Joe Biden out of the 2024 race, handing the reins to Vice President Kamala Harris.

The political backstabbing was reportedly orchestrated by Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries all reportedly nudging Biden out the door – leaving the president feeling betrayed by his allies.

So, the media finally admitted it was a coup.

It is so funny watching the Democrats do to their voters what they claim Trump has done to his. They have brainwashed you and given you a cult leader in Harris and forced it all down with some Walz Kool-aid. Dang, that has to suck. pic.twitter.com/kIRxorqsan

— Sadie (@Sadie_NC) August 18, 2024

Biden, who was eager to hit the campaign trail again, was unceremoniously pushed aside in what amounts to a political putsch. Now, as Democrats rally around Harris, Biden – who went from “forward to getting back on the campaign trail” – now sulks in the shadows.

It wasn’t exactly “Julius Caesar” in Rehoboth Beach. But it was a tectonic shift and, of course, there were going to be serious reverberations. Even though it was the right thing to do, because Joe Biden was not going to be able to campaign, much less serve as president for another four years, in a fully vital way, it was a jaw-dropping putsch.

Donald Trump, never one to miss an opportunity to exploit Democratic discord, has jumped into the fray.

“Kamala wants NOTHING TO DO WITH CROOKED JOE BIDEN,” Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday. “They are throwing him out on the Monday Night Stage, known as Death Valley. He now HATES Obama and Crazy Nancy more than he hates me! He is an angry man, as he should be. They stole the Presidency from him — ‘It was a Coup!’”

Democrat leaders have also made fools of themselves covering up their betrayal – suggesting everything from adding Biden’s face to Mount Rushmore to praising his ‘unmatched record.’ As Dowd notes, Biden isn’t fooled, nor are his family members, who are reportedly just as bitter about how things have unfolded.