Producer Price Inflation Slows As Services Costs Slump
Having been resurgent for the last few months, US Producer Price inflation was expected to slow significantly in July and it did, with Headline Final Demand PPI rose just 0.1% MoM (+0.2% exp) which pulled the YoY PPI down from +2.7% to +2.2%…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy prices picked up MoM while Services prices tumbled by the most since March 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods rose 0.6% in July, the largest advance since a 1.1- percent jump in February. Nearly 60 percent of the broad-based increase in July can be traced to the index for final demand energy, which moved up 1.9%. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.
Product detail: A quarter of the July rise in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 2.8-percent advance in prices for gasoline. The indexes for diesel fuel, meats, jet fuel, fresh fruits and melons, and basic organic chemicals also increased. Conversely, prices for electric power decreased 1.1 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables and for steel mill products also moved down.
Final demand services: Prices for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in July, the largest decrease since moving down 0.2 percent in March 2023. The July decline can be traced to the index for final demand trade services, which dropped 1.3 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services rose 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Leading the July decline in prices for final demand services, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling decreased 4.1 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing, automobiles retailing (partial), automotive fuels and lubricants retailing, desktop and portable device application software publishing, and physician care also fell. Conversely, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.3 percent. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling and for truck transportation of freight also rose.
We would expect portfolio management fees to drop next month as stocks were slammed…
Core (Ex-Food and Energy) was unchanged MoM and plunged from +3.0% to +2.4% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
However, ex-Trade-Services, PPI increased to +3.3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Companies are feeling the squeeze as they eat the difference between CPI and PPI…
Chipotle Shares Tank After Starbucks Steals Their CEO Amid Activist Pressure
Amid increasing tales of a consumer who is quickly pulling back from spending on anything discretionary (like iced, non-fat, six-pump vanilla lattes, with soy milk, and honey), Starbucks has unceremoniously dumped its CEO this morning, and snagged a very prominent CEO from another chain.
Starbucks has named Chipotle Chief Executive Brian Niccol as the coffee chain’s new CEO and chairman, replacing Laxman Narasimhan after just over a year in the role.
“I am excited to join Starbucks and grateful for the opportunity to help steward this incredible company, alongside hundreds of thousands of devoted partners,” said Niccol.
“I have long-admired Starbucks iconic brand, unique culture and commitment to enhancing human connections around the globe. As I embark upon this journey, I am energized by the tremendous potential to drive growth and further enhance the Starbucks experience for our customers and partners, while staying true to our mission and values.”
Niccol will become the sixth person to serve as Starbucks’s CEO in the company’s history, and the second to come from outside the company. Narasimhan, who became CEO in March 2023, was the first.
Starbucks is thrilled…
“We are thrilled to welcome Brian to Starbucks. His phenomenal career speaks for itself. Brian is a culture carrier who brings a wealth of experience and a proven track record of driving innovation and growth. Like all of us at Starbucks, he understands that a remarkable customer experience is rooted in an exceptional partner experience,” said Mellody Hobson, Starbucks board chair.
“Our board believes he will be a transformative leader for our company, our people, and everyone we serve around the world.”
Chipotle shareholders not so much – SBUX is up 11% and CMG -10% on the news…
Most notably, this decision by Starbucks to oust their CEO comes after activist investor Elliott Investment Management pushed for transformation at the coffee giant to address slowing sales and operating problems. Additionally, last week The Wall Street Journal reported that another activist, Starboard Value, had taken a stake in Starbucks.
Futures Trim Gains After Dismal Outlook From Home Depot
US futures are slightly higher, although well off session highs following disappointing guidance from Home Depot while rising tension in the Middle East weighed on risk appetite. Tech leads modest gains as we receive the first batch of the week’s macro data today when PPI drops at 830am ET. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher, paring a gain of 0.5%, after yesterday’s flat close on Wall Street; Nasdaq futs are up 0.3% with NVDA rising 1.5% as Mag7 are all higher and Semis catch a bid, following yesterday’s outperformance. European markets are lower even as Asian stocks erased last week’s sharp declines led by a bounce in Japan thanks to a drop in the yen. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher which is boosting the USD. Commodities are mostly lower with WTI reversing losses to trade around $80 and Brent at $82 as the US sees an Iranian attack against Israel as increasingly likely; Ags/Precious metals are under pressure. Fed’s Bostic speaks today, and disappointing earnings from HS may shape the market narrative. Tomorrow’s CPI and Thurs’ Retail Sales are the key catalysts.
In premarket trading, Home Depot falls 2% after the company beat lowered its same store sales forecast to a decline of 3-4% for the year, signaling that it expects consumer spending to remain soft in the coming months. Said otherwise, HD expects business to get worse in the second half of the year, which is hardly an endorsement for the strength of the US consumer. Tencent Music Entertainment plunged 6% after reporting results that showed paying users for social entertainment missing estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Dell Technologies shares climb 2.4% after being raised to equal-weight from underweight at Barclays. The bank noted that there’s less downside to the stock as much of the AI hype “has now been washed out of the share price.”
Baxter rises less than 1% after funds managed by global investment firm Carlyle agreed to buy the company’s kidney care segment for $3.8 billion.
Huya gains 7% as the board declared a special cash dividend.
On Holding slips 5% after the sneaker maker maintained its annual adjusted Ebitda forecast, despite the metric topping the consensus estimate for the second quarter.
Pacira BioSciences falls 3% after Truist downgraded the stock to sell from buy, saying a generic Exparel entry is imminent following a court ruling that canceled the drug’s patent.
Paysafe gains 10% after boosting its revenue forecast for the full year.
Rumble rises 4% after the video-network platform reported second-quarter results, with revenue topping estimates.
After last week’s turmoil, markets are focusing on Wednesday’s US CPI report, which may help determine whether the Fed has room to secure a soft landing for the economy. The recent rally in crude oil prices also puts the spotlight on producer-price numbers later Tuesday, as an indicator of pipeline inflationary risks. But first, there is the PPI report on deck at 830am today: economists expect core PPI to rose 0.2% last month from June, when it gained 0.4%, while the headline print is also expected to gain 0.2%.
“The US producer price index for July will give an early indication of price pressures in the month ahead of the consumer price index,” Kristina Clifton, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note. “Any hints from the PPI of soft inflationary pressures in July can cause financial markets to double down on large interest rate cuts this year from the FOMC” and weigh on USD, she said.
Traders are also monitoring events in the Middle East after the US said an Iranian attack on Israel could be imminent. The implications were underscored by Fitch Ratings’ move to downgrade Israel’s sovereign debt by one notch, to A from A+, while keeping a negative outlook and citing “continued war” and geopolitical risks.
“One could argue that equity is still in recovery mode after last week’s shakeout, and holding out from really putting money to work until we get the key US data this week,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “Pricing US growth is still the main game in town.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 erased an early advance after the ZEW gauge of German investor expectations tumbled more than economists expected (from 41.8 to 19.2, exp. 32.0). Here are the most notable European movers:
Gaztransport & Technigaz again has a clean sweep of positive analyst ratings after Berenberg moves back to a buy after five months with a hold rating, saying the pullback in the stock looks overdone. The shares gain as much as 5.4%.
Swissquote gains as much as 6.8%, hitting the highest in more than a month, after releasing first-half earnings which ZKB sees as positive even though guidance for the full year continues to be slightly below estimates.
Galderma shares rise as much as 3%, making them the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the US Food and Drug Administration approved the Swiss dermatology company’s Nemluvio for the treatment of adults with prurigo nodularis, a skin disease.
PolyPeptide rises as much as 15%, extending its winning streak to a fifth day, after the Swiss biotech firm slightly lifts 2024 guidance and outlines target to double 2023’s reported revenue level by 2028.
Bilfinger shares climb as high as 6.6%, the most in six months, after the industrial services company reported faster growth in sales and earnings than expected during the second quarter, according to analysts at Oddo BHF as they nudged up their price target on the stock.
Valneva shares trade 4.3% higher after the French vaccine developer forecast “substantially lower cash burn” in the second half. The stock pared a gain of as much as 11%.
Henkel shares gain 0.3% after results from the German home products maker contained few surprises after its pre-release in July. RBC praised the firm’s 1H gross margin growth.
Tecan shares slump as much as 18%, the most since September 2004, after the Swiss laboratory-equipment maker reported weaker-than-expected results for the first half and cut its outlook for 2024.
Grifols shares dropped as much as 5.7%, worst performing stock on Spain’s IBEX 35, on a report that Brookfield, which is considering a joint takeover offer, found accounting irregularities in its due diligence.
Brenntag shares fall as much as 2% after the German chemicals distributor’s second quarter results were what Morgan Stanley called mixed, highlighting lowered guidance and softer messaging from the company.
Dowlais shares plunge as much as 17% to a record low, before paring the drop to trade 3% lower, after the automotive engineering company signaled its full year results will be below expectations, according to analysts.
Genuit Group falls as much as 5.3%, the biggest drop since June last year, after the plastic piping company suffered from soft demand and reported lower revenue and profits in the first half. Analysts note the challenging backdrop, but were impressed Genuit has grown margins and see an eventual recovery panning out next year.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed Tuesday, with a regional benchmark reclaiming levels seen before the historic August 5 selloff, as equities in Japan extended their rebound on return from a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.2%, headed for a third-straight day of gains. Japan’s Topix jumped nearly 3% as a weaker yen was seen providing support for exporters, while benchmarks in China and South Korea also gained. Industrials and information technology were the top-performing sectors on the regional gauge. The continuation of a rebound in Japan is helping all of Asia, said Andrew Jackson, head of Japan equity strategy at Ortus Advisors Pte in Singapore. “Japan is the only market that really matters” right now, he added.
The key Asian stock gauge plunged 6.1% last Monday to mark its worst day since 2008 as fears of a deeper US economic slowdown, an extended rout in Japanese equities and a rotation away from heavyweight tech shares weighed on the market. Many investors bullish on Japan, which commands the highest weighting in the MSCI Asia gauge, have said that the recent selloff in the nation’s stocks provides a fresh reason to buy what has been one of 2024’s hottest trades.
In China, regulators told commercial banks in the Jiangxi province not to settle their purchases of government bonds, taking some of the most extreme measures yet to cool a market rally that has alarmed Beijing. The crackdown is beginning to take a toll on corporate debt markets, as the average yield for one-year corporate yuan bonds with AA ratings — typically considered junk debt in the onshore market — saw the largest jump since December 2022.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. The British pound gained and the FTSE 100 index underperformed Europe’s benchmark after data showed UK unemployment unexpectedly fell in the second quarter, complicating the Bank of England’s shift to lower interest rates.
Treasury 10-year yields erased an earlier gain to slide to a session low of 3.89%, down 1bp on the session, while US spreads also trade near prior day closing levels. Treasuries were rangebound over Asia, early London session as investors stay sidelined ahead of PPI data due 8:30am New York and then CPI print due Wednesday. Bunds marginally outperform Treasuries and gilts into the US session while S&P futures give up early gains to trade back to near unchanged on the day. Ahead of PPI data, Fed-dated swaps are still pricing in around 100bp of rate cuts for the year with approximately 36bp of cut premium priced into the Sept. 18 meeting
In commodities, WTI trades within Monday’s range, snapping a five-day streak of gains with a 0.3% decline to near $79.8. Most base metals trade in the red. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $2,460/oz.
Today’s US calendar includes only July PPI at 8:30am. CPI print is due Wednesday, Fed speakers scheduled for the session include Bostic at 1:15pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2 to 5,381
MXAP up 1.1% to 177.48
MXAPJ up 0.1% to 556.52
Nikkei up 3.4% to 36,232.51
Topix up 2.8% to 2,553.55
Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 17,174.06
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,867.95
Sensex down 0.8% to 79,001.72
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,826.84
Kospi up 0.1% to 2,621.50
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 499.36
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.23%
Euro little changed at $1.0921
Brent Futures down 0.5% to $81.85/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,461.45
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.21
Top Overnight News
European stocks rose, tracking gains in Asia, as investors awaited US price data for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Chinese authorities are going to extraordinary lengths to tighten their grip on the world’s third-largest government bond market.
UK unemployment fell unexpectedly after companies stepped up hiring, a sign of underlying strength in the economy that complicates the Bank of England’s shift toward lower interest rates.
The US believes an Iranian attack against Israel has grown even more likely and may come as soon as this week, officials said, as allied leaders sought to head off all-out war and the Pentagon deployed more forces to the region.
Within the moneyed circles of the Middle East, there’s increasing talk of a shifting power dynamic in the upper echelons of high finance. Apollo, Blackstone and other big money managers are reshaping longstanding practices to win part of the $4 trillion in Gulf sovereign wealth.
MSCI Inc. continues to cull China stocks from its indexes, setting the stage for a further drop in the nation’s share of a key emerging-market benchmark.
Oil declined after a five-day advance, with a likely escalation in the Middle East conflict offset by signs of weakening global demand growth.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed lead from the US ahead of key data and as markets continue to brace for Iran’s retaliation. ASX 200 traded indecisively after mixed data releases and as gains in financials, real estate and the commodity-related sectors were counterbalanced by losses in tech, telecoms and defensives. Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and reclaimed the 36,000 status after returning to last week’s pre-turmoil levels. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with the former supported in energy stocks after yesterday’s oil rally, while the mainland index oscillated between gains and losses in a tight range owing to the lack of fresh macro drivers.
Top Asian news
China’s Vice Premier Liu called for efforts to minimise damage to agricultural production caused by torrential rains and flooding, as well as urged efforts to improve the agricultural sector’s capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. China’s Vice Premier also said they need to step up financial support for the restoration of agricultural production, according to Xinhua.
China’s Hesai is to be removed from the US Defence Department blacklist, according to FT.
Japan’s parliament is to hold a special session at the Lower House committee on August 23rd to discuss the BoJ rate hike, while BoJ Governor Ueda is likely to be asked to attend the special session, according to sources cited by Reuters.
China M2 (July): 6.3% (exp. 6.1%); Total Social Financing (CNY) 770bln (exp. 1.1tln)
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.1%) started the session entirely in the green but succumed to some early morning pressure, which has since pared in recent trade; as it stands, indices are generally in the green. European sectors are mixed, having initially opened with a positive bias. Travel & Leisure is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by the recent advances in oil prices. Basic Resources also lags amid the weakness in the metals complex. US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.5%, RTY +0.2%) are modestly firmer as traders remain mindful of today’s US PPI figures, ahead of CPI tomorrow. Firms have reportedly started testing Huawei’s new Ascend 910C chips, according to WSJ sources; Huawei in talks to secure tens of thousands of chips; framed as a “challenge” to Nvidia (NVDA) on AI hardware.
Top European news
European Gas Prices Fall as Russia Flows Take Steam Out of Rally
Fortnox Sinks to January-Low After CEO Tommy Eklund Leaves
Meta Faces Legal Challenge From Polish Billionaire Over Fake Ads
Grifols Drops on Report Brookfield Found Accounting Issues
UK Reviews Early Data Releases Traders Say Spur Volatility
Fx
DXY is a touch firmer (within a 103.08-27 range) with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers (softer vs. risk currencies/firmer vs. havens). Today’s focus for the greenback will fall upon PPI metrics, albeit any reaction may tempered somewhat by the fact that CPI is due out tomorrow.
EUR is softer vs. the USD with a disappointing German ZEW release adding to the woes for the region’s outlook. EUR/USD is managing to hold above yesterday’s 1.0910 low.
GBP was given a boost by UK jobs metrics which saw an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, albeit, the usual data reliability caveats apply. BoE pricing points to a 66% chance of an unchanged rate in September.
USD is edging gains vs. JPY with the dollar firmer vs. havens alongside gains in stocks. For now, USD/JPY is respecting yesterday’s 146.41-148.22 range.
Antipodeans are both benefitting vs. the USD with the Dollar currently losing out to cyclical fx currencies.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1479 vs exp. 7.1760 (prev. 7.1458)
Fixed Income
USTs are essentially unchanged and awaiting PPI before Wednesday’s US CPI for insight into PCE at the end of the month, a figure which is scheduled for the week after the Jackson Hole symposium. Into the release, USTs are in a narrow 113-04 to 113-11+ band.
Bunds are firmer but ultimately rangebound, continuing the holiday-thinned action seen on Monday. ZEW was particularly poor, with the strongest decline of expectations reported for two years, sparking a modest uptick in Bunds to re-approach their earlier 134.65 peak. No real reaction to subsequent Schatz supply.
Gilts gapped slightly higher at the open to 99.82 from a 99.72 close on Monday, despite a hawkish reaction seen in the Pound following the release. Benchmarks did pull back off these levels ahead of the regions supply, but caught another bid following the robust auction but also in tandem with Bunds, which benefited from the dire German ZEW metrics. Gilts are now back towards their 99.88 peak.
Germany sells EUR 4.038bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.70% 2026 Schatz: b/c 2.1x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 2.38% (prev. 2.73%) and retention 19.24% (prev. 18.08%)
Commodities
Crude is slightly subdued intraday but holding onto a bulk of yesterday’s gains amid geopolitical uncertainty. Two major risks include the threat of a retaliation against Israel from Iran and Lebanon, whilst Ukraine’s gains inside Russia could lead to increased tensions between the West and Moscow. Brent trades towards the upper end of a USD 81.50-82/bbl parameter (vs 82.40/bbl high yesterday).
Precious metals trade lower amid the rising Dollar and as newsflow remains light thus far, with participants awaiting potential geopolitical escalations before or after US CPI tomorrow.
Base metals trade lower across the board amid the cautious risk tone coupled with the firmer Dollar.
US Department of Energy said the US seeks to buy 6mln bbls of oil to help replenish the SPR.
IEA OMR: Maintains 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970k BPD; cuts 2025 forecast by 30k BPD; says weak growth in China now significantly drags on global gains – Chinese oil demand contracted for the third straight month. OPEC+ cuts are tightening physical markets. For now, supply is struggling to keep pace with peak summer demand – tipping the market into a deficit. Global observed oil inventories fell by 26.2mln bbls in June after four months of builds. US summer driving season set to be strongest since the pandemic.
Workers at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile will begin strike action, according to the union.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli forces stormed the city of Nablus in the northern West Bank from the Al-Tur military checkpoint, according to Al Jazeera.
Source close to Hezbollah said Iran expressed concern that Israel and the US may strike its nuclear program and fears they will use the outbreak of any large-scale conflict as a pretext to neutralise Iran’s nuclear deterrence, according to a report by The Washington Post.
US and Israeli officials said their assessment was that the Iranian attack wouldn’t happen on Monday night, while President Biden’s top Middle East adviser will travel to Cairo for talks on security arrangements along the Egypt-Gaza border which is critical for a hostage deal, according to Axios’s Ravid.
US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken discussed in a call with his Turkish counterpart the importance of Hamas’s return to negotiations in the middle of this month, while Blinken stressed the importance of completing the framework agreement for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, according to Al Jazeera.
FBI was reportedly investigating suspected hacking attempts by Iran in the Biden and Trump campaigns, according to Reuters and The Washington Post.
“Israeli Army Radio: Israel told allies that it would respond to any Iranian attack by hitting targets in the heart of Iran”, according to Al Jazeera.
“Hamas will participate in the round of negotiations expected next Thursday”, according to Sky News Arabia citing CNN sources
Geopolitics: Russia
Russia’s Intelligence Service suggest Ukrainian President Zelensky is taking steps that threaten escalation far beyond Ukraine, via Ria.
US Event Calendar
06:00: July SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 93.7, est. 91.5, prior 91.5
08:30: July PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 3.1%
08:30: July PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
08:30: July PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 3.0%
08:30: July PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.6%
08:30: July PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
08:30: July PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
Paris 2024: These Countries Punched Above Their Weight
While the United States may have once again topped the official medal table at the Paris 2024 Olympics, there are some less-talked-about countries that seriously punched above their weight at the quadrennial event.
Adjusting for population size, Statista’s Felix Richter reports that the U.S. medal haul of 126 actually places the country in rank 48 with 0.37 medals per one million inhabitants, which is way ahead of China’s 0.06 medals per million inhabitants but far behind many other countries, including New Zealand, Australia and the Netherlands – all nations that consistently outperform their size at the Olympics.
Unsurprisingly, the countries at the very top of our list, Grenada, Dominica and Saint Lucia, all have populations smaller than 200,000, making their medals count – 2, 1 and 2, respectively – stand out among nations with many times as many inhabitants.
With a population of 26.7 million, Australia is the biggest nation near the top of the population-adjusted medal table.
The country won an impressive 53 medals, including 18 gold medals, in Paris, mainly but exclusively thanks to its strength in swimming competitions, where Australian athletes won 18 medals, including 7 gold medals.
Having entered the presidential race late and with no written platform, she is curating her positions through public statements. Sometimes those positions align with President Joe Biden’s, sometimes they diverge, and often they differ from her previously held positions.
“I think the one advantage that Harris may have is that there’s less than 100 days to go,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell told The Epoch Times. Given that brief window may be easier for her to introduce her policy positions than for her political opponents to define her.
Here is a summary of her current views on major questions compared with both her prior statements and Biden’s policies.
Abortion
Harris has made abortion access a centerpiece of her campaign, often contrasting herself with former President Donald Trump, who appointed three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Like Biden, Harris favors federal legislation to reinstate the nationwide protection of abortion access that Roe v. Wade had provided.
“When Congress passes a law to restore reproductive freedoms, as president of the United States, I will sign it into law,” Harris told rally-goers in Atlanta on June 30.
As a U.S. senator for California, Harris co-sponsored legislation to ban states from imposing restrictions on abortion and voted against a bill that would have banned abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy.
In 2019, she advocated requiring “states and localities with a history of violating Roe v. Wade” to obtain Justice Department approval before enacting any abortion laws or practices.
US Border
Harris’s position on the border has changed compared to 2020. During her 2020 presidential campaign, Harris said the country should “think about starting from scratch” with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the agency responsible for investigating and deporting illegal immigrants, a position she now rejects.
“Immigrants are part of the fabric of America,” she wrote in 2019, vowing to pass immigration reform.
In June 2021, she told migrants in Guatemala, “Do not come. The United States will continue to enforce our laws and secure our border.”
Now Harris, like Biden, considers the influx of illegal immigrants part of a global migration crisis and a humanitarian issue.
Yet she has begun to differentiate herself by speaking more about border enforcement.
Referring to her tenure as attorney general of California, she said in July, “In that job, I walked underground tunnels between the United States and Mexico on that border with law enforcement officers. I went after transnational gangs, drug cartels, and human traffickers that came into our country illegally.”
Harris went on to criticize Trump for speaking against a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year, which subsequently failed twice in the Senate. She promised to resurrect that legislation if elected.
Harris’s vice presidential record on the border has been the subject of recent controversy, particularly over the extent of her role in securing the border.
Biden appointed Harris in March 2021 as the unofficial border czar to “address the underlying causes of migration through a strategy to confront the instability, violence, and economic insecurity that currently drives migrants from their homes.”
Later that year, Harris announced public and private funding of $115 million to reduce global migration by alleviating economic insecurity, fighting corruption, promoting human rights, countering gang activity, and reducing sexual, gender-based, and domestic violence.
Israel–Hamas War
Harris has repeatedly affirmed her support for Israel and denounced Hamas and its Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Both Biden and Harris favor a two-state solution in the region.
However, after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25, she said that while Israel should always be able to defend itself, “how it does so matters.”
“I also expressed with the prime minister my serious concern about the scale of human suffering in Gaza, including the death of far too many innocent civilians,” Harris said, reiterating remarks from December 2023 that Israel “must do more t
Harris appears to be more willing to challenge Israel on its treatment of Palestinians in Gaza.
“She was willing to criticize Netanyahu’s policies while he was in the room. So I’m thinking that she’s willing to risk maybe taking a different approach for that policy,” Patricia Crouse, professor of political science at the University of New Haven, told The Epoch Times.
Ukraine–Russia War
Biden favors ongoing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine for its war with Russia, seeing this as critical for preventing further aggression against allies in Europe. The president entered an agreement with NATO allies in June to support Ukraine “until it prevails,” providing military support into the next decade.
Harris has not contradicted that position.
During a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February, Harris said it is in the “strategic interest of the United States to continue our support.”
In June, she announced more than $1.5 billion in U.S. aid to “bolster Ukraine’s energy sector, address humanitarian needs, and strengthen civilian security.”
Supreme Court
Harris favors Supreme Court reform but has changed her position since 2020.
During her 2020 presidential campaign, Harris appeared receptive to the idea of expanding the Supreme Court. “Everything is on the table” to address the “crisis of confidence” in the court, she told Politico in March 2019.
Two months later, she said she was open to the “conversation” of increasing the number of justices, according to Bloomberg.
However, Harris issued a statement in agreement with Biden’s recent proposed court reforms, which include 18-year term limits and a judicial code of ethics that would be enforceable under law. The proposal doesn’t include increasing the number of justices.
“There is a clear crisis of confidence facing the Supreme Court as its fairness has been called into question after numerous ethics scandals and decision after decision overturning long-standing precedent,” Harris said in a July 29 statement.
She said the reforms are needed to restore public confidence in the court.
As San Francisco district attorney, Harris called for tough sentences for gun violence offenders, seeking a minimum 90-day jail time for possession of a concealed or loaded weapon, vowing “no tolerance.”
Harris’s views on policing shifted in 2020. During an interview on the “Ebro in the Morning” radio program, Ms. Harris said the “defund the police” movement “rightly” called out the funds spent on police departments instead of community services, including education, housing, and health care.
After joining the Biden campaign later that year, she rejected the concept of defunding the police.
During the vice presidential debate in October 2020, she called for criminal justice reform, a ban on police use of chokeholds and carotid holds, a national registry for police officers who break the law, and decriminalizing marijuana.
Gun Rights
Harris has made “freedom from gun violence” a consistent focus in campaign speeches.
During an April 11 press call, Ms. Harris said she supports the Second Amendment but wants “reasonable gun safety laws.”
She has since defined that as a ban on the sale of so-called assault weapons to civilians, universal background checks, and the enactment of red flag laws.
The Biden administration also favors requiring safe gun storage and ending the prosecution immunity for gun manufacturers. Harris has not contradicted those positions so far.
In 2019 Harris supported a mandatory buyback program for military-style assault weapons, according to Bloomberg, a measure she no longer publicly advocates.
Today, the proportion of Americans’ financial assets invested in public stocks is nearing record highs, just shy of the peak seen in 2021.
Investor confidence, a strong U.S. economy, and superior historical performance over the last several decades is driving allocations to equities. In 2024, 41.6% of U.S. households’ financial assets are tied to the stock market.
Below, we show the share of financial assets invested in the stock market over each decade:
Figures are as of January 1 of each year.
As we can see, more Americans are investing a greater share of their wealth in public stocks at a time of high inflation and robust consumer spending.
Currently, 62% of Americans own stocks, reaching a 20-year high. Breaking it down further, 87% of upper-income Americans own stocks, followed by 65% of middle-income Americans, and 25% of lower-income individuals. In the first quarter alone of 2024, the value of assets held in the stock market jumped by $3.8 trillion compared to the previous quarter.
Similarly, a significant share of Americans invested in stocks during the internet bubble. This fell sharply after the crash as investors were hurt by making risky investments in high-flying tech companies. Often, these companies had no earnings or viable business models.
On the other hand, the share of assets held in stocks plummeted to 9.4% in 1982, a year when 10-year Treasury bonds delivered a record return of 32.8%. For context, these returns outpaced the S&P 500 by 12.4% amid soaring interest rates. At the time, the U.S. economy was marked by a recession and high inflation, leading investors to seek less risky assets.
Comparing Asset Class Performance
One reason why investors have flocked to equities is because of the historical performance track record.
When compared to nearly all other asset classes, U.S. equities have outperformed for decades. Looking at the last 10 years, U.S. stocks returned 12.3% annually on average compared to 4% for real estate investment trusts (REITS), and 1.4% for investment-grade corporate bonds.
Even beyond America’s borders, domestic equities have seen higher returns. Since 2014, European equities have seen 4.6% annualized returns while emerging market stocks have returned 3.3% on average.
The 39-year-old SunPower is the latest solar rooftop business to fail this year. Others include Titan Solar Power and Sunworks. SunPower cited a “severe liquidity crisis caused by a sharp decline in demand in the solar market and SunPower’s inability to obtain new capital.” The IRA boosted solar subsidies, so why has demand fallen?
One reason is higher interest rates have made rooftop panel leasing less attractive to customers. Some states like California have scaled back programs that pay customers to send solar power they don’t use to the grid. Such subsidies raise the cost of power for people who don’t have panels. In California the grid is often overloaded with solar power.
The cost of panels has also increased amid overall inflation and President Biden’s tariffs, which were backed by domestic manufacturers and Democrats in Congress. Solar installers warned the tariffs would hurt their industry, and they have. Jobs that Mr. Biden’s subsidies giveth, his tariffs and inflation taketh.
Offshore wind projects are also getting scratched because of rising costs and interest rates that make them uneconomic even with subsidies. BP last year wrote down its U.S. offshore wind business by $1.1 billion. Wind developer Orsted last autumn announced $4 billion in write-downs after walking away from two projects off the New Jersey coast.
BP recently scaled back a planned U.S. biofuels investment. Shell this year said it would close its hydrogen refueling stations in California as few people are buying fuel-cell vehicles, and subsidies for hydrogen production have fallen. Talk about stranded assets.
Tariffs and Subsidies Backfire
Biden only wants clean energy if it every piece of it is made in the USA. That means higher costs, even with subsidies.
I commented on this in advance as it was easy to see.
The attempt force production of solar panels in the US resulted in prices so high that few wanted them.
About 40% Of Biden-Harris’ IRA Projects Face Delays
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris signed the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science Act in 2022, promising to lower inflation and make life more affordable for Americans. However, the reality has been quite the opposite, as the federal government embarked on a spending spree of taxpayers’ dollars. Even VP Harris recently admitted on the camping trail that a cost of living crisis persists.
Two years after Biden-Harris’ Inflation Reduction Act and Chips and Science began offering some of the $400 billion in tax credits, loans, and grants to promote the development and promotion of clean energy across the country while expanding the semiconductor supply chain, a number of projects have been delayed or paused.
A newly published investigation by the Financial Times reveals that nearly 40% of Biden’s key industrial and climate projects (each valued over $100 million) have been delayed or put on hold. FT said that’s about $84 billion worth of projects sitting idle. It added the total value of projects tracked by its investigative team was approximately $228 billion.
The delays raise significant questions about big government’s ability to effectively manage the industrial transformation across the US to rebuild the Heartland’s industrial capacity.
Here’s a map of the delayed or paused manufacturing projects.
The uninspiring success rate of these projects, with many not on track as they should be, is a national management issue that extends all the way to the top. In the private sector, such dismal performance would not be tolerated.
Considering the US is in a race to expand its manufacturing base and reduce reliance on China as global conflict threats continue to surge – the dismal success rate so far needs to be reviewed by lawmakers on Capitol Hill to understand if the most qualified folks are managing the projects.
Intermittent fasting has gained significant attention in recent years for its potential health benefits, including weight loss, improved metabolic health, and even longevity. As more and more people try it out as a possible means to improve their overall health and well-being, it’s important to take a deeper look into the science behind this way of eating.
Exploring the existing evidence behind the purported benefits of intermittent fasting can provide valuable insights into how it affects our bodies and whether it lives up to the hype.
How Is Intermittent Fasting Different From Fasting?
Intermittent fasting and fasting are two different approaches to the timing of meals and calorie intake. Traditional fasting is refraining from consuming calories—whether from food or drink—for an extended period.
There are myriad ways to fast, from drinking only water to a more modified approach that includes some calories from drinking bone broth or fresh-pressed juices. The duration of the fasting period also varies and may last up to 28 days or more.
Intermittent fasting is an eating pattern that involves cycling between periods of eating and fasting. Intermittent fasting does not dictate what you eat but rather when you eat. It is a shorter period of fasting and involves adding blocks of time-restricted eating to your daily schedule.
While there is no standard set delineation, the most extended duration of intermittent fasting before it is considered general fasting is commonly agreed upon as 48 hours.
Types of Intermittent Fasting
Several of the most popular approaches to intermittent fasting include:
16:8 Method
The most common approach to intermittent fasting, the 16:8 method, involves fasting for 16 hours and eating all meals within an eight-hour window each day.
Eat-Stop-Eat
This method consists of fasting for 24 hours once or twice a week.
5:2 Intermittent Fasting
This approach involves following a regular diet five days a week and significantly reducing caloric intake on the other two days.
Alternate-Day Fasting
This method includes alternating between days of regular eating and fasting.
One-Meal-a-Day (OMAD)
With this method, you fast for 20 hours daily and eat one large meal, typically at night.
The Benefits of Intermittent Fasting–What We Know
While an evolving area of research, evidence supports several health benefits of incorporating intermittent fasting into your regime.
Weight Loss
Many people seek out intermittent fasting as a means to reduce body fat. Mrinal Pandit, a registered dietitian, clinical nutritionist, and certified nutritional counselor, told The Epoch Times in an email, “Intermittent fasting can aid in weight loss by reducing calorie intake and enhancing hormone function to facilitate weight loss.”
Research supports that intermittent fasting may lead to increased metabolic rate, allowing the body to burn more calories even at rest. There is also evidence that it can lead to a decrease in insulin levels, which allows the body to burn stored fat.
However, some research suggests intermittent fasting produces no additional benefit to weight loss than simple overall continuous caloric restriction. Yet the authors of an article published in the BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine in 2022 noted that intermittent fasting may be responsible for weight loss and a reduction in waist circumference that is independent of just calorie restriction.
More research is needed to uncover the exact mechanism, but weight loss is often seen in people who adopt an intermittent fasting approach to eating.
While intermittent fasting is a means of weight loss, it’s worth noting that in 2023, a review published in Nutrition Reviews highlighted that it takes between five and 20 days of prolonged fasting to see a weight loss of two to ten percent of a person’s total body weight. Given the extended period of fasting time needed to see significant weight loss results, intermittent bouts of fasting may not be the best method if a reduction in body weight is the primary goal.
Metabolic Health
Metabolic health is how well the body breaks down the food you eat and converts it into energy. It refers to markers including optimal body mass index, cholesterol, blood pressure, and blood sugar levels. Metabolic dysfunction, or poor metabolic health, is a contributor to many chronic illnesses and a cause of diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.A study published in 2022 in the BMJ Open Sports & Exercise Medicine saw overall improvements in metabolic health due to intermittent fasting. Pandit said “Fasting can improve various metabolic markers of health, including improved insulin sensitivity and reductions in blood sugar levels. These benefits are typically observed with fasting windows ranging from 14 to 16 hours daily.”
Autophagy
Autophagy is a process in the body that involves the destruction of cells. It allows the body to rid itself of damaged cells and regenerate new ones. It’s like a self-cleaning oven within cells that helps to maintain their function.
Autophagy has been linked to various health benefits, including the potential to protect against certain diseases and promoting longevity.
Decreased autophagy is linked to various health issues and conditions. Research suggests that a reduction in autophagy may contribute to neurodegenerative diseases, cancer, and metabolic disorders. Additionally, impaired autophagy may lead to accelerated aging and a decline in cellular health.
Research published in the journal Autophagy shows intermittent fasting activates and upregulates autophagy in many of the body’s organs. According to Pandit, “Fasting periods of at least 16–18 hours can initiate autophagy, with the process becoming more pronounced as the fasting window extends.”
Human Growth Hormone
The human growth hormone (HGH) has a myriad of responsibilities in our growth and development in adolescence, but it begins to decrease around middle age. HGH maintains our tissues and organs throughout the body and is believed to play a role in our immune system function, aging process, and mental health and well-being.
Such benefits are seen in more extended periods of forgoing food. According to Pandit, “A fasting window of about 16 to 24 hours is often associated with a noticeable increase in HGH … production.” Levels of the hormone significantly increase after 24 hours of intermittent fasting, and research published in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism found that after 48 hours of intermittent fasting, the amount of HGH present is five times that seen at the 24-hour mark.
Additionally, there is research tying spikes in insulin levels with an interference in HGH communication in the body. Since intermittent fasting involves refraining from eating—and insulin is released upon food intake—blood levels will be lower throughout the majority of the day. Thus, there may be less interference.
Oxidative Stress
Oxidative stress occurs when the body’s free radical and antioxidant levels are imbalanced. This imbalance can lead to cellular and tissue damage, inflammation, and cellular aging. Chronic oxidative stress is a driver of many chronic diseases. “Fasting for 16-24 hours can activate pathways that enhance cellular resistance to stress,” Pandit said.
A study published in 2019 in the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology suggests that “prolonged nighttime fasting, without altering daily caloric or dietary intake, may improve antioxidant capacity,” thus aiding with any imbalance with free radicals. The study also concluded that intermittent fasting “significantly reduced markers of inflammation while supporting antioxidant function” when combined with physical activity.
A study published in the International Journal of Exercise Science in 2020 found that intermittent fasting also reduced oxidative stress in the heart and brain. However, some research indicates that the oxidative stress benefit may be due to weight loss. Whatever the mechanism, intermittent fasting ultimately mitigates oxidative stress and enhances health.
Cognitive Function
Intermittent fasting is associated with cognitive benefits such as improved brain function and a potentially reduced risk of neurodegenerative diseases. A three-year study published in Nutrients in 2020 found that such benefits are beneficial, particularly as we age.
A systematic review published in 2021, also in Nutrients, highlighted the benefits of intermittent fasting on mental health, especially stress, anxiety, and depression. Further, according to the findings of a 2020 randomized controlled trial in the publication, it may have the ability to improve memory function as well.
There is also research suggesting that intermittent fasting may increase the generation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), which is strongly linked to improved cognitive function. Low levels of BDNF are linked to diseases such as Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, multiple sclerosis, and Huntington’s disease.
“These cognitive benefits are observed typically with longer fasting periods, usually 18—24 hours, which stimulate protective processes in the brain,” Pandit added. However, more research is needed to fully understand the cognitive effects of the practice in their entirety.
Cardiometabolic Health
A review published in the Annual Review of Nutrition in 2021 suggests that, in particular, alternate-day fasting, the 5:2 diet, and time-restricted eating may lower blood pressure. The review determined that these specific types of intermittent fasting could benefit cardiometabolic health by decreasing insulin resistance and oxidative stress.
“[The improvements] have been associated with fasting periods of 16–24 hours. These benefits arise from hormonal adjustments and improved metabolic responses,” Pandit said.
Conversely, research released by the American Heart Association in March suggested that 16:8 intermittent fasting increases the risk of death from cardiovascular disease. However, it’s important to note there are limitations to the study, including self-reported data from only two days per week.
Gut Health
A study published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition in 2021 found that, after fasting for 16 hours per day for the entirety of the month of Ramadan, participants had higher levels of beneficial bacteria in the gut. Once the fasting period ended at the end of the month, the levels returned to baseline.
A study published in the British Journal of Nutrition in 2020 found a similar increase as well as an enhanced diversity in the gut microbiome of participants who fasted for 16 hours a day for 25 days.
“In regard to gut health, shorter fasting times of 12–16h [hours] might be beneficial for the gastrointestinal tract and could improve gut barrier function and the composition of gut microbiota when compared to non-fasting state,” said Pandit.
Mayonnaise exhibits similar properties to plasma, aiding fusion research.
Scientists are studying the condiment to understand the behavior of plasma in fusion reactions.
Breakthroughs in fusion research, including recent experiments, offer hope for future clean energy solutions.
The most common of condiments could help researchers better understand the physics behind one of the most difficult and sought-after scientific feats—making nuclear fusion a reality.
When compressed and heated, mayonnaise exhibits some characteristics similar to the various states of plasma in a hypothetical nuclear fusion reaction, scientists have found.
So, the common condiment could become an ingredient in solving one of humanity’s longest-standing dreams—achieving nuclear fusion.
Fusion is the natural process that heats the Sun and all other stars, in which a huge amount of energy is produced by the fusion of light atoms, such as those in hydrogen, into heavier elements like helium.
Nuclear fusion has long been considered the answer to zero-emission by-product-free energy generation. However, no one has cracked the nuclear fusion code yet because of the challenges associated with the environment in which the process could take place.
Inertial confinement fusion, the process that starts a nuclear fusion reaction, has several challenges to overcome. One of these is the instability of the plasma state which results from rapid compression and heating of capsules filled with isotopes of hydrogen.
The so-called Rayleigh-Taylor instability that occurs is the interpenetration of materials when fluids with different densities collide.
And here comes mayonnaise, which has become a key ingredient to the ongoing research on the phases of Rayleigh-Taylor instability, researchers at Lehigh University say.
“We’re still working on the same problem, which is the structural integrity of fusion capsules used in inertial confinement fusion, and Hellmann’s Real Mayonnaise is still helping us in the search for solutions,” said Arindam Banerjee, the Paul B. Reinhold Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Mechanics at Lehigh University and Chair of the MEM department in the P.C. Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Science.
“We use mayonnaise because it behaves like a solid, but when subjected to a pressure gradient, it starts to flow,” he says.
Banerjee and team have been studying the properties of mayonnaise in relation to plasma characteristics for at least half a decade.
Back in 2019, they published their first paper on the topic called “Rayleigh-Taylor-instability experiments with elastic-plastic material,” in the scientific journal Physical Review E.
The team has continued experiments in mayonnaise and published their latest paper on the topic, “Transition to plastic regime for Rayleigh-Taylor instability in soft solids,” earlier this year.
In the latest paper and experiments, the scientists are “trying to enhance the predictability of what would happen with those molten, high-temperature, high-pressure plasma capsules with these analog experiments of using mayonnaise in a rotating wheel,” Banerjee said.
“We’re another cog in this giant wheel of researchers,” he said, commenting on the cohort of scientists working to make fusion a reality.
“And we’re all working towards making inertial fusion cheaper and therefore, attainable.”
In nuclear fusion efforts, recent breakthroughs in the U.S. have encouraged more R&D efforts in America and elsewhere.
At the end of 2022, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory made history, demonstrating fusion ignition for the first time in a laboratory setting—an achievement six decades in the making. The fusion energy released was greater than the laser energy delivered to start the reaction, passing the threshold of ignition.
LLNL’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) has so far achieved ignition four times since 2022, giving hope to scientists that fusion for energy may not be only a pipe dream as it has been for decades.
It is building a Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Technology (CRAFT) in Hefei—a project in which key components for fusion energy reactors are developed and tested. The facility is expected to be finished in 2025.
The U.S. has several large private fusion companies, including Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), which has just signed an agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy worth $15 million to meet research and development goals leading to commercial fusion power.
The incentives in the U.S. Administration’s Milestone program to support fusion energy “can help us keep moving step by step toward our goal of building our first fusion power plant by the early 2030s,” CFS chief executive and co-founder Bob Mumgaard said in June.
