Lott: Media Push Misleading Crime Stats To Protect Democrat Narrative

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

Crime is a major issue in this year’s election, yet major media ignored the release of a significant new government report showing a surge in violent crime. The increase in violent crime during the Biden administration is a record increase.

The latest data released last Thursday from the Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) reveal a sharp increase in violent crime under the Biden-Harris administration compared to when Trump left office.

During the debate, Mr. Muir noted: “President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country.” But Mr. Muir would have been much more accurate if he said that the number of crimes reported to police fell, which isn’t the same as total crime. He might also have conceded, as Trump pointed out in his response, that fewer than half of police departments reported complete data to the FBI in 2022.

Since victims don’t report most crimes, the NCVS was set up over fifty years ago to get a measure of total crime. The survey interviews 240,000 people each year.

Since 2020, total serious violent crime (rape, robbery, and aggravated assault), the categories that correspond to the FBI’s measure of violent crime, has soared. Total violent crime was 55.4% higher in 2023 than when the Biden-Harris administration took office. Rapes were up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55%.

The increases during the Biden-Harris administration are by far the largest percentage increases over any three-year period on record, more than doubling the previous record.

Even after several days, the media has failed to mention these huge increases.

The Associated Press ran a “fact check” on Friday after President Trump held a press conference in California. Relying on a statement from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ acting director that while the rate of violent victimizations in 2023 was higher than it was in 2020 and 2021, it was not statistically different from the pre-COVID rate in 2019, when Trump was president.

Note they don’t mention whether the rate is statistically different than in 2020 or 2021. Nor do they mention how large the increases are. Trump’s point was that violent crime had increased during the Biden-Harris administration. The rate in 2022 was statistically significantly higher than in either of those previous years. The violent crime rate in 2022 and 2023 was also significantly higher.

Total felonious violent crime increased by 19% from 2019 to 2023, and there is only one other time when the increase over four years was larger.

Americans in many parts of the country see that products at CVS and Walgreens stores are behind plexiglass. A customer must call for a clerk to unlock the glass and then wait while the customer reads and examines the different packages. Americans know that things were not like this a few years ago.

Much is made of the drop in murder rates over the past few years, but Americans sense that violent crime is on the rise.

Murders are almost always reported, so the data are relatively reliable. The FBI reports that the murder rate dropped by 13% in 2023, although it remains 5% higher than in 2019.

Although the NCVS doesn’t track murder rates, the data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) contradict the FBI’s figures. While the FBI reports that the murder rate peaked in 2020 and then declined in 2021 and 2022, the CDC data indicate that the murder rate was actually higher in 2022 than in 2020 (2022 is the most recent year for which CDC data are available).

The news media is trying to protect the Democrats from bad news regarding crime. This is important to many Democrat narratives. Democrats have argued that the flood of illegal aliens can’t be causing crime because crime is down. “The false message of the [Republican National Convention] was that [illegal immigration] was leading to an increase in crime,” Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg claimed on Fox News Sunday.

The news media won’t report the shocking numbers. They know that Democratic narratives would blow up if word gets out that rape, robbery, and aggravated assault rates are 55% higher than in 2020 and far surpass the pre-COVID level.

John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.