Powell Pours Cold Water On Rate-Cut Euphoria; USA Sovereign Risk Ominously Surges In September

US Macro data is on a charge higher in September, surging to its strongest since late-April…

Source: Bloomberg

September markets ended on a weaker note today – after China stimulus piled on top of the super-size rate-cut sent stocks soaring in the month. European stocks ended practically unchanged on the month, US stocks up marginally and China soared…

Source: Bloomberg

All the US Majors ended the month higher, led by Nasdaq 100 (with Small Caps lagging), but overall, while the rip off the early month lows is noteworthy, the month-end gains are modest at best given the massive easing….

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds took a hit today around 1400ET when Powell said that he “doesn’t feel like The Fed is in a hurry to cut quickly.”

Additionally, Powell said “sometimes people pay too much attention to The Fed’s SEP [Dot Plot],” noting that the SEP shows two more 25bps cuts this year (less than the market).

That sent rate-cut expectations lower (hawkishly), with less than 3 cuts now priced in for 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks tumbled and yields jumped after those comments, but they remain notably decoupled on the month (10Y yield -10bps, S&P +2%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond-Stock correlation has flipped negative (after over a year positive) where bond gains have helped buffer stock losses

Source: Bloomberg

“It’s wise to be on high alert,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid put it nicely in his morning commentary today. “One small shock could move things very quickly.”

Energy names were September’s biggest losers while Discretionary and Utes outperformed (an unusual combination of cyclical and defensives)…

Source: Bloomberg

While all stock indices were higher, so Treasury yields were lower across the board in September (with the short-end outperforming significantly) despite a decent surge higher in rates today (2Y +10bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically in September with 2s10s dis-inverting notably (before flattening a little in the last few days)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar fell for the third straight month in September. Most of the pain was as inflation and payrolls data hit early in the month. Since then the dollar has oscillated sideways, amid the Fed cuts and China stimmies…