Ahead Lies Ruin: The Decay Of Social Trust

Ahead Lies Ruin: The Decay Of Social Trust

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Loss of social trust has consequences.

There are three solvents of social trust: 1) the self-aggrandizement of insiders; 2) decay of competence, and 3) precarity, generated by soaring inequality / cost of living and the decay of social mobility, all of which erode confidence in the social contract, i.e. our confidence that the system isn’t rigged to benefit the few at the expense of the many.

These are of course related, but let’s tease them apart. Once insiders focus on maximizing their personal gain as the purpose and goal of their employment, the value of the institution’s service to the public / customers decays behind a flimsy screen of self-serving PR promoting the successes of the hollowed-out institution.

Even if insiders are devoted to serving the public, if their ability to perform the necessary work is impaired due to under-competence, the public’s trust decays. Rather than look for incompetence, which presumably could be fixed by replacing the incompetent with the competent, the real problem is under-competence, a subject I addressed in The Catastrophic Consequences of Under-Competence (subscribers/patrons only).

The basic idea here is the organization has lost the core competencies needed to handle anything other than day-to-day processes. In other words, those inside the organization think they have what it takes, until challenges arise that they do not fully recognize or understand due to institutionalized under-competence. Here is an excerpt from my essay:

We all understand human error: someone was tired and misread the situation, or they were impatient. We also understand incompetence: the individual simply didn’t have the knowledge and experience needed to make the right decisions and take corrective action.

Author Charles Perrow studied organizational weaknesses that generate flawed responses to what he calls “normal accidents,” responses that made the situation far worse. In other words, the system itself increases the risks of normal accidents becoming catastrophic accidents.

In other words, as organizations become more complex, the staff no longer has the competence required to manage challenges and crises that were previously considered part of the job.

When self-interested insiders no longer care about the organization’s under-competence, this is toxic to social trust. On a society-wide scale, this decay erodes the social contract, the unstated but implicit understanding that the system is functional and fair, i.e. a level playing field, and we “get what we pay for,” i.e. we will receive fair value for our work and money.

Soaring inequality, the rising cost of living and the decay of social mobility are all indicators of an increasingly unlevel playing field and a decline in the value of our work and money, even as we’re constantly assured that we have the best of everything.

This reliance on artifice and propaganda is also toxic to social trust. When we sense that we’re just marks / chumps being ripped off by corporations and institutions, and the gains are going to the few at our expense, we lose trust in the system.

No wonder social trust has been declining for decades. This is inversely correlated to rising inequality: as inequality increases, social trust declines.

The widening gap between the the few and the many is reflected by this chart: those who find the system works very well for me have great trust in the institutions that employ and enrich them, while the rest of us, i.e. the marks and chumps being stripmined, have very little trust in our elites or the institutions that empower them.

Consider Higher Education, the vast “industry” of universities and colleges tasked with imparting higher levels skills and knowledge. That the emergence of student loans–from near-zero two generations ago to $1.75 trillion in “free money” to higher education–enabled a vast expansion of shiny new buildings and well-paid administrators is beyond question.

This chart shows federally backed student loan debt–$1.48 trillion–out of a total (federal and private-sector debt) of $1.75 trillion. Note that Higher Education managed to expand for decades without any federally backed student debt. In 20 years, federally backed student debt rose from $87 billion to $1.48 trillion. How did the “industry” survive all those postwar decades as it expanded at an unprecedented rate?

Two generations ago, critics inside and outside the “industry” were already questioning the value of the education being offered to students, for example Ivan Illich’s Disabling Professions and Deschooling Society , and Donald Schon’s The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think In Action, in which Schon, a professor at M.I.T., explored how little was understood about how students learn real-world skills in management and other professions.

That student enrollment in the Higher Education industry has plummeted from 18 million to 15 million in the past few years reflects not just demographics but an erosion of trust in the value of what’s being taught. The real test of the value of what’s been sold as a valuable education lies ahead, when extraordinary challenges will reveal that what’s been taught largely qualifies as under-competence.

The same can be said of what’s being sold by Corporate America, as the quality, durability and value of goods and services has declined to the point of parody: in effect, Corporate America’s “party line” is: our products and services are garbage, but if you upgrade to Premium, you’ll suffer less.

That this doesn’t inspire trust in the status quo is obvious to the many, but the few continue living in their protected bubble, confident that since I’m doing so well, everyone is doing well.

Loss of social trust has consequences which are difficult to predict. The first-order effect is precarity, the general sense that life is increasingly precarious on multiple levels. The second-order effects start with the unraveling of the social order and proceed from there.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 18:25

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Zelensky Tells Fox: Trump Assured Me He Would Support Ukraine

Zelensky Tells Fox: Trump Assured Me He Would Support Ukraine

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News that former President Donald Trump reassured him that Washington will maintain its support for Kiev should he return to the White House. 

The Ukrainian leader said Trump made the remarks when the two met last week. “I don’t know what will be after [the] elections and who will be the president… But I’ve got from Donald Trump very direct information that he will be on our side, that he will support Ukraine,” he said. 

Via Associated Press

Last week, Zelensky traveled to the US and met with Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris, and President Joe Biden to present Ukraine’s “victory plan.”

The Wall Street Journal reports that senior US and European officials say the proposal contains no clear path to victory for Ukraine

The plan was described as offering nothing new, and repackaged several old requests for more weapons and permission to use them in Russia. “I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there,” one official told WSJ

While Democrats have targeted Trump as an apologist for Russian President Vladimir Putin and not supportive enough of Ukraine, the former president has supported sending arms to Ukraine.

During his term in the Oval Office, Trump authorized arms transfers to Kiev, something his predecessor Barack Obama refused to do out of fear of crossing Moscow’s redlines. 

Earlier this year, a massive $60 billion aid package for Ukraine was stalled in Congress. Several key figures in the debate report that Trump broke the deadlock when he threw his support behind the aid

Although Trump has claimed he would end the war if elected in November, he has not outlined a precise plan for accomplishing that.

Instead, he has repeatedly stated the 2022 invasion would not have occurred if he had been president. Trump also insisted on Wednesday that Zelensky should have made a peace deal with Putin shortly after the war began. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 17:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/N4flvZr Tyler Durden

A Strange, Unidentified Smell Made Its Way Across Southern Washington Last Week

A Strange, Unidentified Smell Made Its Way Across Southern Washington Last Week

Make as many hippie jokes as you’d like, but it appears there is a strange smell making its way across the South of Washington State. 

Cowlitz County EMS started receiving 911 calls about the smell around 6:30 p.m. Tuesday of last week as it spread through South Kelso, Rose Valley, Kalama, Woodland, and Cumbia County before reaching Portland, a new report from USA Today said.

Cowlitz County said in a statement this weekend: “The source of the odor and what the odor is/was, are still unknown and under investigation.”

Leading theories for the smell include “ship, train, highway transportation leak; Scappoose Bio Solids; industry; pipelines; natural gas; Mt St Helens; and ground movement.” 

The county’s EMS said: “Complaints have varied from unpleasant odors to minor health issues. All agencies continue to work on the situation.” 

The USA Today report said that Cowlitz County reported variable wind conditions until 6 p.m. on Tuesday, pushing the odor from Longview toward Portland.

Several county agencies responded to complaints, coordinating with local and federal authorities to identify the source. The National Weather Service also tracked the odor’s path on social media.

“By tracking winds, we can estimate the path that it may have taken, briefly drifting down near Vancouver WA before southerly winds around 4AM would have pushed it back north again,” EMS said. 

They called the smell “unusually very inconsistent.” 

“Descriptions have varied from, similar to natural gas, propane, burning garbage, burning rubber, ammonia, and others. As of this briefing, complaints have varied from unpleasant odors to minor health issues,” they concluded.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 17:20

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The UN Just Adopted The “Pact For The Future” Which Lays The Foundation For A New “Global Order”

The UN Just Adopted The “Pact For The Future” Which Lays The Foundation For A New “Global Order”

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

While everyone was distracted, the global elite got exactly what they wanted.  The UN adopted the “Pact for the Future” on September 22nd, and the mainstream media in the western world almost entirely ignored what was happening.  Instead, the headlines urged us to just keep focusing on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.  Sadly, the vast majority of the population has never ever heard about the “Pact for the Future”, and so there was very little public debate about whether or not we should be adopting a document which lays the foundation for a new “global order”.  The text of the “Pact for the Future” is available online, but hardly anyone will ever read it and many of the most important provisions are buried toward the end of the 56 page document.  Of course everyone should take the time to actually read this document, because our leaders just committed us to an extremely insidious global agenda that literally covers just about every conceivable area of human activity.

September 22nd, 2024 is a day that will go down in infamy.

Once the “Pact for the Future” was formally adopted, the following was posted on the official UN website

World leaders today adopted a Pact for the Future that includes a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations. This Pact is the culmination of an inclusive, years-long process to adapt international cooperation to the realities of today and the challenges of tomorrow. The most wide-ranging international agreement in many years, covering entirely new areas as well as issues on which agreement has not been possible in decades, the Pact aims above all to ensure that international institutions can deliver in the face of a world that has changed dramatically since they were created. As the Secretary-General has said, “we cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.”

You would think that the “most wide-ranging international agreement in many years” would make headlines all over the planet.

But that didn’t happen.

The UN press release also boldly declares that the “Pact for the Future” will “lay the foundations” for a new “global order”…

“The Pact for the Future, the Global Digital Compact, and the Declaration on Future Generations open the door to new opportunities and untapped possibilities,” said the Secretary-General during his remarks at the opening of the Summit of the Future. The President of the General Assembly noted that the Pact would “lay the foundations for a sustainable, just, and peaceful global order – for all peoples and nations.”

The Pact covers a broad range of issues including peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, and the transformation of global governance.

I don’t want to live in a new “global order” that includes “all peoples and all nations”.

I am sure that most of you feel the exact same way.

Another page on the official UN website tells us that “UN 2.0” is all about creating a “modern UN family”

Halfway through the 2030 Agenda, the world is not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. It is not too late to change course, if we all rethink, refocus, and recharge. “UN 2.0” encapsulates the Secretary-General’s vision of a modern UN family, rejuvenated by a forward-thinking culture and empowered by cutting-edge skills for the twenty-first century – to turbocharge our support to people and planet.

We will strive towards this vision with a powerful fusion of innovation, data, digital, foresight and behavioural science skills and culture – a dynamic combination that we call the “Quintet of Change”. It is about evolution towards more agile, diverse, responsive, and impactful UN organizations.

That sounds so cozy, doesn’t it?

Who wouldn’t want to be a part of a “family”, right?

But the truth is that the agenda that they intend to impose on all of us will not be pleasant at all.

Over the years, much has been written about how insidious the UN’s “Sustainable Development Goals” are.

Well, the UN is openly admitting that the “Pact for the Future” was specifically designed “to turbo-charge implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals”…

  • The entire Pact is designed to turbo-charge implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals.

  • The most detailed agreement ever at the United Nations on the need for reform of the international financial architecture so that it better represents and serves developing countries, including:

    • Giving developing countries a greater say in how decisions are taken at international financial institutions;

    • Mobilizing more financing from multilateral development banks to help developing countries meet their development needs;

    • Reviewing the sovereign debt architecture to ensure that developing countries can borrow sustainably to invest in their future, with the IMF, UN, G20 and other key players working together;

    • Strengthening the global financial safety net to protect the poorest in the event of financial and economic shocks, through concrete actions by the IMF and Member States;

    • and accelerating measures to address the challenge of climate change, including through delivering more finance to help countries adapt to climate change and invest in renewable energy.

  • Improving how we measure human progress, going beyond GDP to capturing human and planetary wellbeing and sustainability.

  • A commitment to consider ways to introduce a global minimum level of taxation on high-net-worth individuals.

  • On climate change, confirmation of the need to keep global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

In one way or another, all forms of human activity contribute to “climate change”.

And so they intend to strictly regulate all forms of human activity in order to meet their twisted goals.

The “Pact for the Future” also recognizes a “central role” for the UN and a “coordinated and multidimensional international response” whenever future “global shocks” arise

We recognize the need for a more coherent, cooperative, coordinated and multidimensional international response to complex global shocks and the central role of the United Nations in this regard. Complex global shocks are events that have severely disruptive and adverse consequences for a significant proportion of countries and the global population, and that lead to impacts across multiple sectors, requiring a multidimensional and whole-of-government, whole-of-society response.

The next time that there is a major global crisis, do you want the UN running the show and telling everyone what to do?

I tried to warn everyone about this.

I have written extensively about the “Pact for the Future”, but in the end only a very small sliver of the population got fired up about it.

Now the global elite have achieved their goal, and the opposition that they encountered was barely perceptible.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/jCRLTJv Tyler Durden

VDH: Our Ukrainian War Narrative – Paradoxes, Obsessions, & Disconnects

VDH: Our Ukrainian War Narrative – Paradoxes, Obsessions, & Disconnects

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

About half of America sympathizes with Ukraine’s plight and wishes to arm it.

After all, Kyiv was attacked preemptively by Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, in an effort to decapitate its government and turn the country into a Russian satellite, perhaps similar to the status of a Belarus or Chechnya.

The heroic ability of the Ukrainians to save Kyiv and to stop the Russian assault beyond the occupied Donbas and Crimea has hinged on Western weapons deliveries, specifically from European NATO countries and, to a far greater extent, the United States.

But now, after a reported 1 million combined dead, wounded, or missing Ukrainians and Russians (the actual figure is probably far higher), the war remains deadlocked with no end in sight.

Putin serially threatens to break the static front with tactical nuclear weapons. The Europeans are tiring. And no one in the United States has come up with a strategy to push back the Russians from either their February 2022 demarcation points or their post-2014 occupation of Ukrainian borderlands.

The result is a lot of disconnects, paradoxes, and mysteries about the war, the Biden administration’s role in it, and the general geostrategic landscape surrounding the conflict.

Ukrainian Election Interference?

Americans are demonized by the Uniparty elites for having doubts about their blank-check support for Ukraine. And while the American people are mostly anti-Putin, they are not always pro-Ukraine.

But why is that so?

For one, we know that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election.

Even leftwing Politico reported that Ukrainians in the U.S. gathered opposition research on Trump campaign officials and passed it to the Clinton campaign and thus likely her appendages in government.

In August 2016, at the height of that Trump-Clinton presidential race, Ukrainian ambassador Valeriy Chaly himself wrote an op-ed in the Hill attacking then-candidate Donald Trump for his comments about Crimea.

Ukrainian expatriate and U.S. citizen Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman was the catalyst and likely source behind the “whistleblower’s” allegations that led to the first impeachment of Donald Trump. Yet in retrospect, given subsequent disclosures about the Biden family‘s quid pro quo enrichment, Trump likely had reason to worry about feeding the ongoing Biden family Burisma corruption and collusion with Ukrainian oligarchs.

Via Hunter and Joe Biden, the Bidens really were receiving money from Ukraine in exchange for selling their influence. Joe Biden really did leverage $1 billion in congressionally approved U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. He thereby sought to have fired prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who was looking into the extravagant sums Hunter Biden was receiving from Ukrainian interests. And we know this because Biden later publicly bragged about how he threatened to cut off U.S. assistance unless Shokin was fired.

Vindman himself really was an anti-Trump partisan—and later cut a campaign commercial for the Lincoln Project. He likely had leaked a classified presidential phone call to the so-called whistleblower in order to prompt a third-party induced impeachment of a perceived anti-Ukraine Donald Trump.

He refused to disclose all the parties to whom he leaked the call. (Note that Joe Biden himself in May 2004 put a hold on congressionally approved 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, likely due to concerns of losing the Arab-American vote in key swing state Michigan—a better example of a president subordinating the national interest for his own political reelection agenda.)

Vindman was reportedly involved in a family company (as CEO of Trident Support) trying to facilitate repairs of U.S.-supplied military equipment to Ukraine. His wife recently and callously tweeted of the second assassination attempt on Trump, “No ears were harmed. Carry on with your Sunday afternoon.”

Ukraine’s efforts to compromise prominent Americans, interfere in U.S. elections, and use their American contacts to facilitate arms transfers still continue in outrageous fashion.

On September 23, just 43 days before Election Day, the Biden-Harris administration flew in, at taxpayer expense, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accorded him secret service protection as he visited the critical swing state of Pennsylvania—where the deadlocked election will likely be decided.

Zelensky and Democrat politicos (no Republican counterparts were invited) toured a Pennsylvania munitions plant making artillery shells likely destined for his Ukraine. One subtext of the visit was that Biden-Harris aid for Ukraine—to be continued or increased by a President Harris—results in jobs for Pennsylvania voters.

In an interview with the left-wing, pro-Biden-Harris New Yorker magazine, Zelensky—who himself has canceled both 11 Ukrainian opposition political parties and scheduled elections, suspended habeas corpus, and censored the media—regrettably went further in his \efforts at U.S. election interference. Zelensky trashed Harris’s rival candidate Donald Trump as someone who “doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how.”

The Ukrainian president attacked even harder Trump’s running mate and vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, as “dangerous” and “too radical.”

Too radical for what or whom? The people of the United States or the Ukrainian hierarchy? Amid a firestorm, Zelensky later hurriedly met with Trump, which unfortunately only further highlighted his poor election timing.

One reason why many Americans are skeptical of helping Ukraine is, well, Ukraine itself—specifically its graft and corruption, its oligarchs’ disturbing history of bribing U.S. influential figures, its interference in U.S. elections, and its dictatorial suspension of human rights, political parties, and elections.

On to Moscow?

Strategically, it is understandable why Ukraine wishes to use European and American planes and missiles to strike depots and supply centers deep inside Russia, given Russia does the same to Ukraine—and focuses far more on civilian targets.

But to equip a proxy to attack far inside a nuclear rival’s homeland was always taboo in the Cold War—and for good reason, given the resulting lowered bar of nuclear escalation.

So, the Korean War, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the wars in the Middle East all respected our ancestors’ Cold War rule: neither the U.S. nor the U.S.S.R. in their numerous proxy wars ever used their clients to attack the homeland of their nuclear opponents with either nuclear or conventional weapons.

When Nikita Khrushchev came close to doing just that by equipping Castro’s Cuba with missiles capable of becoming nuclear-tipped, along with nuclear-carrying strategic bombers that could hit the U.S. homeland, the Kennedy Administration went to Def Con 2.

It quickly blockaded the island. Kennedy further warned the Soviet Union that in case of any Cuban-based attack by missile or plane (conventional or nuclear) against the American homeland, the U.S. would retaliate against Russia itself.

So, we are caught in a very dangerous cycle.

Almost weekly, Putin himself, his generals, Russian politicians, or the Russian state media threaten to respond to attacks inside Russia by resorting either to tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine or strategic nuclear strikes against its suppliers.

In response, our retired generals and intelligence authorities, along with pundits and diplomats—and our de facto commander-in-chief at the press room dais, Kamala Harris—discount these threats as empty bombast. They offer no consideration that what has been mere Russian braggadocio in 2022-2023 (when casualties were in the few hundred thousand and no Ukrainians were fighting inside Russia) might not be so vacuous in late 2024 or 2025. Now casualties have soared by over a million. And Ukrainian forces, equipped with a new arsenal of jets and missiles, currently occupy 500 square miles of conquered Russian territory.

In truth, the West and the U.S. have no strategy for a Ukrainian victory over Russia. Much less do they worry much that a quarter of the Ukrainian population has fled the country, and the military is running out of recruits. The default assumption is to keep fueling the 1 million-man meat grinder to the last Ukrainian and hope that Russia tires first—the sort of non-strategy that the left used to lecture was amoral and senseless in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Why the Ukraine-Israeli asymmetry?

Israel, in many ways, is America’s closest ally. It is a constitutional state and the only nation in the Middle East that respects human rights. Its enemies are our enemies. And it is the target over the last half century of nonstop Arab and Iranian attacks.

Not so Ukraine that separated from Russia in August 1991, and yet still has a checkered history of corruption and authoritarianism.

In the present war, Ukraine has likely become the target of some 8,000-10,000 missiles launched from Russia. Yet that number is still smaller than the some 20,000 projectiles sent into Israel by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran.

Israel, like Ukraine, was surprise attacked by its neighbor. And like Russia, Hamas started the war without concern for civilians. Or rather, in efforts well beyond Russian brutality, Hamas deliberately targeted civilians for Dark Age-style murder, torture, mass rape, incineration, beheading, and hostage-taking.

It is hard to outdo Russian wartime savagery, but Hezbollah has accomplished that easily. And unlike post-Soviet Russia, it has blatantly murdered lots of American diplomats and soldiers. Hamas still holds American hostages.

So why does the Biden-Harris administration, and many elites in Washington, treat the two wars so differently? Or more specifically, why do they deify Zelensky and Ukraine but demonize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel?

Note that Biden-Harris demand Israeli “proportionality” in responding to Hamas terror. But they encourage “disproportionality” for Ukraine to win the war. (Does America believe Russia is eviler than Hamas?)

They call for ceasefires nonstop in Gaza and the Hezbollah war. Yet do they ever commensurately instruct Ukraine to stop the war and negotiate with Putin?

Biden-Harris insist that Israel text or otherwise notify Gazans or Beirut civilians of any impending Israel attack. Do they demand the same of Ukraine when it shoots off missiles, shells, and drones into Russian-occupied civilian areas?

Netanyahu has formed a bipartisan war cabinet and will adhere to regularly scheduled elections. And yet he is still demonized as an authoritarian by Biden-Harris. Neither showed up for his recent congressional speech. In fact, in 1950s-Latin-American-coup-style, the U.S. government has been trying under the radar to remove the elected Israeli government.

Most certainly, Netanyahu would not be flown, Zelensky-style, by U.S. military transport to tour a Patriot battery facility in Pennsylvania or in any other election-year battleground state.

And if he was used by Republicans in such overtly partisan fashion, Netanyahu would be asked by the left to leave immediately—especially if he gave an interview from a swing state and, say, on Fox News, in which he trashed the Harris-Walz ticket.

We are warned by Biden-Harris that the Gaza/Hezbollah war should stop now, lest it ignite a theater war in which a possible nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel would exchange missiles and blow up the region.

Yet, Russia is no putative nuclear power.

It possesses somewhere between 6,000-7,000 deliverable nuclear weapons. And it has threatened to use them far more often than Iran has.

Ukraine is on the doorstep of NATO and any regional war would endanger America’s NATO allies far more than an Israel-Iranian conflict.

Is the Iran-Hezbollah/Hamas/Houthis Axis that has emerged from the war more dangerous than the new nuclear Russia/China/North Korea/Iran symbiosis that is fallout from our massive support for Ukraine?

So why are we lectured nonstop about the dangers of Israeli brinksmanship but almost encourage it on the part of Ukraine?

Do we believe that Putin is more rational and restrained and less likely to go medieval than Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei?

Again, what explains the vast difference in the way we oversee our ally Israel’s war and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia?

Is the explanation anti-Semitism?

Hundreds of thousands of Muslim-American voters in Michigan?

The airbrushing of Middle East terrorists unthinkable of Russian thugs?

The sheer hatred of Russia and Russians, but the pass given to Middle Eastern autocrats?

The absence of a large expatriate community of Russians in the U.S.?

Hating Russians?

The left’s hatred of Putin’s Russia is understandable given Putin’s 2022 aggression, but it’s generic nature is now also becoming obsessive. The loathing of all things Russian helps to explain the above paradoxes and obsessions—even in the trivial sense of Joe Biden in his recent The View appearance wearing a U.S./Ukraine flag lapel in a way he would likely not a U.S./Israel flag counterpart.

There is also the shame and embarrassment of left-wing past naiveté about Putin.

After all, it was Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton who in 2009 gave us the performance art, red jacuzzi button, mistranslated Russian “reset.” All that hoopla was a direct partisan rebuke for the supposedly too-tough prior Bush administration response to Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia.

Recall that in 2013, Obama and John Kerry stupidly invited Putin back into the Middle East, supposedly to help corral Syria’s WMDs, after a near-35-year absence from the region.

It was also Obama, who, in a hot mic exchange in Seoul in 2012, promised that he would give up critical missile defense in Eastern Europe if Putin would just give him space during his last election. (Again, was that gambit impeachable under our new rules, given Obama clearly sacrificed America’s strategic interests to win temporary calm from an aggressive Russia to help his reelection?)

Both fulfilled their bargains: Putin waited until Obama was safely reelected and then invaded Ukraine in 2014, while Obama happily surrendered the nascent air defense project to protect eastern Europe from enemy missiles.

In contrast to Clinton-Obama appeasement of Russia, Trump killed Russian Wagner mercenaries in Syria. He gave previously Obama-banned offensive weapons to Ukraine. He opposed the Nord Stream 2 German-Putin pipeline. He got the U.S. out of an asymmetrical Russian-American missile deal. He jawboned NATO nations to up their collective defense expenditures by some $100 billion.

Trump also nearly bankrupted Russia by releasing oceans of cheap American oil and increased sanctions on Russian oligarchs. He made it clear to Putin that unfortunate things would follow from an invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s was the only administration of the last four when Putin stayed put within his borders.

As far as the 2016 Russian-Trump collusion, even Mr. Mueller’s “dream team” and “all-star” partisan “hunter-killer” cadre of lawyers found no such thing—as compared to the Russian-fed Steele dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton to smear Trump.

There was no “Russian disinformation” either in 2020 when team Biden rounded up corrupt ex-intelligence authorities to lie that Hunter’s genuine laptop was likely Russian fabricated.

So why the left’s hatred of Russians—other than the classic projection of blaming others for its own very disastrous appeasement of Putin that the left itself had inaugurated?

One other reason was that Trump endlessly rubbed left-wing noses in their Russian paranoias, joking that Putin might find Hillary’s missing emails, destroyed while in her custody and under subpoena.

When he was accused by Clinton partisans and hacks of being a “Russian asset” or “Russian poodle,” he deliberately bragged about his “deals” with Putin to inflame his critics even more.

In a larger context, Russians have replaced South African or Iranian villains in Hollywood action movies and popular entertainment. The new big-screen bogeyman is now nearly always a large brute with a shaved head, his torso dotted by orthodox Christian cross tattoos, gap-toothed, an exaggerated Russian accent, surrounded by creepy black-suited mafiosi—and full of racist and sexist hatred for liberal America.

In sum, there is an argument to help Ukraine survive Russian attacks.

But that consensus is daily being eroded by the present beltway messianic crusade for Ukraine, in a manner quite unlike our lukewarm and vacillating support for our far closer ally Israel.

The near-hysterical official Ukrainian narrative requires denying or ignoring the escalating dangers of our sophisticated weapons hitting deep inside Mother Russia, the Somme/Verdun-like endless wastage of over a million youths and counting, and the increasingly anti-democratic and election-interfering nature of President Zelensky and his Ukrainian entourage.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 16:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/dmucxzt Tyler Durden

Powell Pours Cold Water On Rate-Cut Euphoria; USA Sovereign Risk Ominously Surges In September

Powell Pours Cold Water On Rate-Cut Euphoria; USA Sovereign Risk Ominously Surges In September

US Macro data is on a charge higher in September, surging to its strongest since late-April…

Source: Bloomberg

September markets ended on a weaker note today – after China stimulus piled on top of the super-size rate-cut sent stocks soaring in the month. European stocks ended practically unchanged on the month, US stocks up marginally and China soared…

Source: Bloomberg

All the US Majors ended the month higher, led by Nasdaq 100 (with Small Caps lagging), but overall, while the rip off the early month lows is noteworthy, the month-end gains are modest at best given the massive easing….

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds took a hit today around 1400ET when Powell said that he “doesn’t feel like The Fed is in a hurry to cut quickly.”

Additionally, Powell said “sometimes people pay too much attention to The Fed’s SEP [Dot Plot],” noting that the SEP shows two more 25bps cuts this year (less than the market).

That sent rate-cut expectations lower (hawkishly), with less than 3 cuts now priced in for 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks tumbled and yields jumped after those comments, but they remain notably decoupled on the month (10Y yield -10bps, S&P +2%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond-Stock correlation has flipped negative (after over a year positive) where bond gains have helped buffer stock losses

Source: Bloomberg

“It’s wise to be on high alert,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid put it nicely in his morning commentary today. “One small shock could move things very quickly.”

Energy names were September’s biggest losers while Discretionary and Utes outperformed (an unusual combination of cyclical and defensives)…

Source: Bloomberg

While all stock indices were higher, so Treasury yields were lower across the board in September (with the short-end outperforming significantly) despite a decent surge higher in rates today (2Y +10bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically in September with 2s10s dis-inverting notably (before flattening a little in the last few days)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar fell for the third straight month in September. Most of the pain was as inflation and payrolls data hit early in the month. Since then the dollar has oscillated sideways, amid the Fed cuts and China stimmies

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied for the 7th month in the last 8 (and its best month since March)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices fell for the third straight month (September was the worst month for WTI since October 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied in September (its best month since May)…

Source: Bloomberg

…as, finally, if M2 is to be believed, crypto is about to breakout…

Source: Bloomberg

What will The Fed do about soaring gold and crypto and USA sovereign risk spiking like Zimbabwe…

Source: Bloomberg

Has anyone else noticed this? Is this why The Fed cut rates?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 16:00

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The Wall Street Journal Is Right: The Biden Admin Should Declassify Its Ukrainian Aid Strategy

The Wall Street Journal Is Right: The Biden Admin Should Declassify Its Ukrainian Aid Strategy

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a very critical editorial on Friday about how “Biden Reneges on His Ukraine Promise: He classifies a strategy document that Congress made the price of aid.”

They surprisingly wrote that “Republicans in Congress are right to insist that the Administration articulate a larger theory of how Ukraine can use the assistance to regain momentum and take more territory back from Mr. Putin.”

Their Editorial Board also threw a few jabs at Kamala too.

In their words, “Don’t count on the Administration following this order before Nov. 5, if it ever does. A public release might mean that Vice President Kamala Harris would have to explain her own thinking on the war before the election. As long as she doesn’t, and the Administration covers it up, Ms. Harris co-owns Mr. Biden’s record of muddled half measures.” There’s more to it than domestic electoral considerations though since the argument can be made that the US doesn’t even really have a strategy.

All Sides Of The Ukrainian Conflict Underestimated Each Other” as was assessed as early as July 2022, with the US wrongly expecting that its unprecedented sanctions would force Russia to withdraw. When it proved too economically resilient yet it still continued to militarily restrain itself in furtherance of political goals as was explained here, the conflict then turned into an improvised “war of attrition”. That also hasn’t gone according to how the West planned.

Not only did last year’s counteroffensive disastrously fail after the West promised that it would be a game-changer, but Sky News reported in spring that Russia is producing three times as many shells as the West and at one-quarter of the price. The scale at which military resources are expended in this conflict is so large, however, that Russia still hasn’t been able to make much on-the-ground progress despite being so far ahead of the West in their “race of logistics”.   

In fact, Russia is finally bearing some fruits from this “war of attrition” as proven by the increased pace of its gains in Donbass, which is setting the stage for what might turn out to be the decisive Battle of Pokrovsk. Even before everything started moving in that direction, it was already clear that the military-strategic dynamics had shifted against the West after last year’s failed counteroffensive and the consequently growing awareness of Russia’s victory in the “race of logistics”.

It was around that time last spring that Republican holdouts finally stopped blocking Congressional aid to Ukraine in exchange for the Biden Administration submitting a strategy for this within 45 days. That predictably didn’t happen on time, and when it finally arrived, it was completely classified. The public therefore remains oblivious to the goals that they’re paying to pursue. More than likely, the Biden Administration doesn’t have any clear ones in mind, hence why it won’t declassify the document.  

The realization that no concrete goals exist, and the US just continues to improvise everything in spite of it being obvious that time isn’t on their side as proven by Russia’s victory in the “race of logistics”, could turn the public against this proxy war even more than they already are. As the WSJ wrote, “The Biden Team has hid behind platitudes such as supporting Ukraine ‘as long as it takes,’ which isn’t a strategy. It long ago became a rhetorical evasion”, one that’s become among the most open secrets in the world.

The military-industrial complex and those elite that invest in it, including public officials, profit handsomely from this state of affairs though. They’re the ones who don’t care about this becoming another “forever war”, as they imagine it to be at least, since they benefit from it. The public was told that this was an existential conflict for the West, however, which is why they’d be none too pleased to find out that their leaders never had a plan for winning in the first place other than sanctioning Russia.

Moreover, it might even be admitted or at least implied within this entirely classified document that new weapons systems have deliberately been sent to Ukraine at a snail’s pace for escalation management purposes vis-à-vis Russia, which would disappoint those who don’t understand the wisdom behind this. This pragmatic approach was elaborated here, but it’s sufficient for the average reader to know that more could have been sent to Ukraine and at a quicker pace too, yet the decision was made not to.

The Biden Administration should therefore declassify its Ukrainian aid strategy in full instead of continuing this charade. From the perspective of the US’ objective national interests, it’s better to prepare the public for the inevitable political solution to this conflict (whenever and whatever it may be) than to keep getting their hopes unrealistically high about a maximum victory that’s impossible to achieve. The sooner that the American elite levels with the people, the sooner that peace will arrive.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 14:45

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‘Go For Gold’ – Goldman Sachs Raises Precious Metal Price Forecast Amid “Secret Buyers”

‘Go For Gold’ – Goldman Sachs Raises Precious Metal Price Forecast Amid “Secret Buyers”

Despite having rallied 29% YTD and 47% since 2022, gold continues to set all-time highs, reaching $2,685/toz on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs Precious Metals analysts have raised their gold price forecast from $2,700/toz to $2,900/toz for early 2025 for two reasons.

  • First, our economists now look for faster declines in short-term interest rates in the West and China, and we recently showed that the gold market doesn’t fully price in the rates boost to Western ETF holdings backed by physical gold yet, which tends to be gradual.

  • Second, our new nowcast shows that EM central bank purchases on the London over-the-counter (OTC) market continue to fundamentally drive the rally since 2022, and we believe that these structural purchases will remain elevated.

Under Goldman’s forecast, moderating but still significant central bank purchases on the London OTC market drive about 2/3 of the expected rise of the gold price to $2,900/toz in early 2025.

The gradual rise in ETF flows following the Fed rate-cuts our economists expect drives the remaining 1/3 of price upside.

This forecast also relies on our rule of thumb that 100 tonnes of physical demand lifts gold prices by at least 2.4%, the lower bound of our regression estimate.

Following Goldman’s analysis of structurally higher demand from central banks, they developed a nowcast of central bank demand in the London OTC market, where most of these transactions take place.

Central Banks Continue to Drive the Rally Since 2022

Top of mind for investors is Who is the ‘secret’ gold buyer?“, as gold has rallied 47% since 2022, despite rising rates which typically predict lower prices.

While the gold-price-to-rates relationship remains intact in changes, the ‘secret’ buyer has elevated prices and reset the relationship in absolute levels.

Our new nowcast shows that EM central bank gold purchases on the London OTC market continue to drive the rally since 2022. Our nowcast of central bank and other institutional demand in the London OTC market shows that purchases remained strong through July, averaging 730 tons annualized year-to-date, or about 15% of global annual production estimates.

China’s central bank, the PBoC, is a key focus for gold investors, given its reported streak of 18 consecutive months of purchases since November 2022. Our estimates of China’s institutional gold purchases in the London OTC market align with the PBoC reports, but tend to be higher, start earlier, and last longer.

While the PBoC reported no additional purchases after April, our nowcast estimates 50 tonnes of institutional purchases from China on the London OTC market in May, with no further activity in June and July.

Goldman’s nowcasting model leverages customs data and knowledge of the London OTC market, the largest hub for trading large 400 oz gold bars, which central banks and other institutions favor due to their size and lower cost per ounce, and which are typically too expensive for most retail buyers. London also provides storage for ETF holdings, central bank reserves (held in custody at the BOE), and unallocated gold accounts. Changes in these gold bar holdings in London vaults are a proxy for OTC net demand and match UK net imports, which are available by trade partners.

Our nowcasting model is the sum of two components:

(1) UK exports of gold bars to the world ex-Switzerland, and

(2) the portion of UK exports of gold bars to Switzerland we identify as central bank demand.

Goldman differentiates between UK gold bar exports to Switzerland and other countries because the former typically represent retail demand while the latter indicate central bank and institutional demand. The UK, with no (significant) gold mines or accredited refineries producing large 400 oz bars, primarily imports these large bars from Switzerland, the global refining hub, when London institutional demand or ETF inflows are high. Conversely, when demand in London is low, the UK exports large 400 oz bars back to Switzerland, where they are refined into smaller bars and sent to retail markets.

Go for Gold

We reiterate our long gold recommendation due to i) the gradual boost from lower global interest rates, ii) structurally higher central bank demand, and iii) gold’s hedging benefits against geopolitical shocks, including tariffs, Fed subordination risk, debt fears, financial, and recessionary risks.

After an already very large price rally, we end by addressing the potential factors that may moderate our base case of significant additional upside to gold prices.

These potential factors to monitor include a potential softening in our nowcast of central bank demand (for instance because of easing in geopolitical tensions), potentially lower-than-expected ETF inflows (if central banks cut rates less than expected), or a potential sharper-than-expected pullback in China’s retail demand due to price sensitivity or a sharper-than-expected gain in consumer confidence.

Professional subscribers can read the full report from Goldman Lina Thomas on what is driving Goldman’s increased gold price forecast.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 14:25

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Another Presidential Election, Another Deep State Letter Opposing Trump

Another Presidential Election, Another Deep State Letter Opposing Trump

Authored by Fred Fleitz via American Greatness,

Two weeks before the 2020 presidential election, Politico published a letter signed by 51 former intelligence officers falsely claiming that a New York Post story about the infamous Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.

The letter was organized by Antony Blinken of the Biden campaign and former CIA Director Michael Morell. The CIA cleared it for publication.

Many Americans were outraged over this letter because it represented former intelligence officers, several with high-paid government contracts, misusing their profession to meddle in a U.S. presidential election and mislead the American public.

Undeterred by the considerable blowback generated by the 2020 Hunter Biden laptop letter, the Harris campaign has organized a similar letter against President Trump in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election that claims he is unfit to be commander-in-chief and endorses Kamala Harris.

This letter, from a group called “National Security Leaders for America,” was signed by over 700 former officials who served with several U.S. government agencies, including the CIA, State Department, and Department of Defense. The letter includes former flag officers, ambassadors, and cabinet members. Several former senior Democratic officials also signed the letter, including Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and Susan Rice.

The new letter immediately sparked controversy when it was learned that at least nine of its signatories also signed the discredited 2020 Hunter Biden laptop letter. The President of National Security Leaders for America, Rear Admiral Michael Smith (Ret.), attempted to defuse this uproar by claiming the 2020 letter was “well-reasoned but ultimately incorrect.”

Although the press claims the new letter was signed by former “senior” national security leaders, the majority are unknown, former low-level government employees. I worked in U.S. government national security jobs for over 25 years and did not recognize most of the names on that letter.

The message of the letter is preposterous. It claims Harris would make an excellent commander-in-chief and cites her “relentless diplomacy with allies around the globe preserved a united front in support of Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression.”

I don’t know about you, but I don’t remember seeing any “relentless diplomacy” by Kamala Harris on anything.

Even worse, the letter makes several ridiculously false accusations, such as accusing Trump of “heaping praise” on Hezbollah and “excoriating” Israel.

And, of course, the letter includes the usual Democratic talking points about Trump being an impulsive leader who threatens democracy.

This letter aims to counter one of Harris’s most significant vulnerabilities: that the world is much more dangerous and unstable today than when President Trump left the White House in January 2021.

The Harris campaign hopes a letter signed by large numbers of former national security officials will distract Americans from Trump’s successful national security record and prevent them from holding her accountable for the global instability caused by the Biden/Harris administration’s atrocious foreign policy.

This includes the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre against Israel, Iran’s surging nuclear program, significantly increased tensions and threats from China and other threats.

I doubt most Americans will be fooled by this bait-and-switch. They know U.S. global leadership and deterrence have seriously deteriorated during the Biden/Harris administration. They will not be talked out of this by a letter organized by the Harris campaign signed by hundreds of former Democratic officials and government bureaucrats.

Conservative political commentator Ben Domenech posted a compelling tweet expressing his anger about this letter:

Domenech makes the most important point about the letter: that it represents a well-organized and entrenched foreign policy establishment—some call this the deep state—that is determined to block the reelection of Donald Trump, who they fear will reverse their failed globalist and interventionist foreign policies and return control of the government to the American people. These former national security bureaucrats are worried there will be a major restructuring of national security agencies under a second Trump administration that will not only eliminate the inefficient and politicized bureaucracies they built over many years but will also terminate the lucrative government consulting contracts that are enriching many of them.

I am with Ben Domenech on this absurd letter by national security bureaucrats and Democratic officials: Americans should vote accordingly.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 14:05

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What Happened To The 25th Amendment?

What Happened To The 25th Amendment?

Authored by Michael Thielen via RealClearPolitics.com,

Why are we still asked to pretend Joe Biden is running the country? Every time he shows his face, he reminds the American people how much his cognition has declined and how he can’t be trusted to finish a speech or remember which foreign leader he’s introducing, let alone manage the daily affairs of running the country. 

The man was forced to bow out of his campaign after he embarrassed the national press corps and Democratic Party elites during his disastrous debate against Donald Trump in June. 

But Democrats and political operatives in the corporate media aren’t as concerned about Biden making us an international laughingstock until Jan. 20, 2025.

On Sept. 20, after not holding a Cabinet meeting for an entire year, Biden gave brief opening remarks and then made the unprecedented move to hand the reins over to his wife, leaving the world asking, “Who’s in charge here, again?

The next day, during a summit with the prime ministers of Japan, Australia, and India, Biden forgot the name of Indian PM Narendra Modi. An awkward moment ensued as Biden stood at the podium, confused and waiting to be told what to do next, while the world leaders patiently sat silent.

These are not old stories dredged up for political gamesmanship. The American people are being subjected to ongoing embarrassment and questions as to who is running our country.

We cannot allow the Democratic Party to get away with this subterfuge after putting America in the very dangerous position of lying about the mental and physical state of the man supposedly sitting behind the Resolute Desk.

At least about that part, they aren’t even pretending anymore, publicly subjecting Biden to the literal kids’ table.

Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) said of his primary challenge after the house of cards was exposed on the debate stage in June, “If this has been vindication, vindication has never been so unfulfilling. I’m deeply disappointed in a political system that has resulted in this dynamic we now face.” 

After more than a year of waging lawfare against any potential rival to Joe Biden’s candidacy, including Phillips, Cornell West, Jill Stein, RFK Jr., and, of course, Donald Trump, the Democratic powers-that-be settled on Kamala Harris, who received no votes for president and was considered dead weight by many party faithful earlier this year. 

In doing so, Democratic elites threw 14 million Democratic primary votes right in the garbage after knowingly concealing Biden’s condition to prevent the exact scenario we now find ourselves in.

Remember when we were given a constant civics lesson about the 25th Amendment to remove a president if he was deemed incapable of handling the duties of the Oval Office? 

Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and the corporate mass media couldn’t stop talking about invoking the 25th when Donald Trump was president but are trying to gaslight the American people that Joe Biden can manage things for the next four months.

The vast majority of Americans no longer trust that Joe Biden can represent us on the world stage – he can’t even represent his party on a debate stage – but the Democratic donor class can’t afford to officially remove Biden and leave Kamala holding the bag on Biden-Harris administration policies she’s trying to run away from.

The fact that Donald Trump and Republican voters should be outraged goes without saying. The 2024 election terms were torn apart, like Nancy Pelosi did to her copy of Trump’s State of the Union. 

But Democratic voters should also be outraged. Their party elites rigged the primary, so they had no choice other than Joe Biden, only to throw out their votes in favor of someone no one wanted, who’s now picked as her running mate another far-left politician no one knows. 

Even the corporate media should be outraged. They’re expected to carry water for a presidential candidate who is trying to waltz into the highest office in the land without holding live press briefings to face their questions.

Just who is making decisions on a day-to-day basis that affect Americans’ ability to buy groceries, put gas in their car, or keep their family safe from illegal immigrant criminals taking over whole communities?

Americans need to remember the colossal dishonesty of the Democratic party to the voting public when they go to the polls, which are now open in some states.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 12:25

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