Month: September 2024

Two members of the Chicago Civilian Office of Police Accountability were fired at the end of last month…immediately after they complained to the Inspector General about bias against police.

Matt Haynam, deputy chief administrator for the Civilian Office of Police Accountability (COPA), responsible for investigating Chicago Police misconduct, was abruptly dismissed during a virtual meeting with COPA Chief Andrea Kersten and general counsel Robin Murphy, according to a report from Law Enforcement Today, citing the Chicago Sun Times.

Earning $163,068 annually, Haynam said he was given no explanation for his immediate termination. Within 90 minutes of the meeting, COPA employees arrived at his home to collect his city-issued car, computer, and phone.

Haynam said he received a text from supervising investigator Garrett Schaaf, who had been similarly fired. Schaaf, who earns $117,792 annually, declined to comment.

“I recently made a complaint to the [inspector general] directly and was let go today effective immediately and given no justification,” Haynam said.

“I’m being fired because she [Kersten] is retaliating. There’s not a performance issue or an issue with my skill level or technical ability, nor was I told there was. I’ve work[ed] there for seven years and been promoted four times. Yet after I make a complaint against Andrea, I’m fired without explanation? I haven’t talked to her in over a month other than of her to fire me today,” he continued.

He continued: “I could probably give you 20 people at COPA who would tell you the same thing. We have employees inside with spreadsheets tracking bias.”

“We have quality managers who have met with Andrea and said, ‘We have a real problem here.’ Is there an issue? Yes. Enough people have been blowing the whistle that someone external to COPA has to either clear what’s going on and say investigations are sound or they’re not,” he said. 

The Law Enforcement Today report says Chicago Police Superintendent Larry Snelling has criticized COPA investigations as unfair and “outcome-based,” with Haynam agreeing and expressing distrust in the process.

However, COPA’s first deputy chief administrator, Ephraim Eaddy, refuted claims of anti-police bias, pointing out that only 14 percent of 2023 investigations resulted in sustained misconduct findings. Eaddy emphasized COPA’s commitment to its responsibility in investigating complaints and serving the city.

Earlier this year, the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) sued COPA Chief Andrea Kersten and her aides, accusing them of biased investigations and excessively harsh discipline on officers. FOP President John Catanzara argued that COPA had strayed from its mission, pushing a far-left agenda and unfairly targeting police officers.

By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves

August data from Cass Information Systems showed the freight market continues to trudge along what is expected to be a trough. Both shipments and freight spend stepped lower from year-ago levels.

Shipments captured by the Cass Freight Index fell 1.9% year over year in August, following a 1.1% y/y decline in July. The August result came in ahead of a projected decline of 3%.

“These were the smallest declines in 18 months as goods demand continues to grow slowly, and slowing capacity additions reduce the pressure on for-hire shipments,” the Monday report stated.

The volume dataset improved 1% seasonally adjusted from July, a second consecutive monthly increase (up 3.1% seasonally adjusted in July) but remained 12.3% lower than the 2022 level.

The shipments index is expected to be down 3% y/y in September and off 3% to 4% for all of 2024 after a 5.5% decline last year.

The update from Cass appears to be in line with comments from trucking heads at an investor conference held last week. Some of the nation’s largest truckload carriers like Schneider National and Werner Enterprises said the industry is still coming out of a protracted recession and that there has been no market inflection, just normal seasonal demand trends.

The expenditures index, which logs total freight spend, fell 9% y/y and 1.3% (seasonally adjusted) from July. The index was off 6.2% y/y last month, which was the smallest decline since the beginning of 2023. Compared to two years ago, total freight spend was off nearly 32% in the month.

The expenditures index was down 16% y/y in the first half of the year and is expected to be off 11% to 12% for the full year as the declines have eased.

Excluding the impact that lower shipments had on the expenditures data, “inferred freight rates” were down 7% y/y and 2% sequentially in August to “a new cycle low.” However, a 3% decline in diesel fuel prices from July to August (down 16% y/y) weighed on inferred rates during the month.

Inferred rates are expected to decline 8% y/y this year after a 14% decline last year.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which records core linehaul rates excluding changes in fuel and accessorial surcharges, declined 3.3% y/y in August and 0.6% sequentially. This was the fourth consecutive sequential decline as “overcapacity keeps bids highly competitive.”

The TL linehaul index includes both spot and contract freight.

“With spot rates steady over the past year, downward pressure on the larger contract market is lessening, but recent slight increases in spot rates are not yet enough to turn contract rates higher,” the report said.

Data used in the indexes is derived from freight bills paid by Cass, a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $38 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.

 

For Wall Street analysts banking on new AI-powered iPhones to spark an upgrade supercycle this fall, growing evidence already points to underwhelming demand for these smartphones. 

The latest development comes from China, the world’s largest smartphone market, where online retailers have already offered price discounts on the new iPhone 16 series. 

South China Morning Post offered more insight into iPhone discounts at major Chinese online retailers that only suggest lackluster demand: 

PDD Holdings’ Pinduoduo, one of the country’s most popular e-commerce platforms, has started selling the iPhone 16 Plus with 512 gigabytes of storage for 8,999 yuan (US$1,268), a 10 per cent discount from the official price of 9,999 yuan. The 128GB iPhone 16 is being sold at an even steeper 11 per cent discount.

Both Pinduoduo and Alibaba Group Holding’s’ Taobao marketplace have slapped a 4 per cent discount on the 256GB version of the high-end iPhone 16 Pro Max, lowering the price by 400 yuan to 9,599 yuan. Alibaba’s Tmall shopping platform also offers buyers the option to pay for a new Apple handset in 24 instalments without interest charges.

The discounts in China came days after TF International Securities analyst Kuo Ming-chi’s US pre-order analysis report on Sunday, which found less demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max and, inversely, more demand for base models. 

“Some consumers also questioned whether Apple’s promise to roll out the AI function in Chinese-speaking regions will cover the mainland, where generative AI technology is heavily regulated,” SCMP wrote in a separate note, adding, “Globally, Apple’s built-in AI is powered in part by OpenAI’s GPT models, which have not been made available in China.” 

“The absence of AI in China is akin to cutting one of Apple’s arms,” one blogger said on Weibo. One popular comment read, “With the biggest selling point unavailable, shouldn’t you charge us half the price?”

Meanwhile, Huawei’s share of smartphone sales in China continues to expand. Last quarter, the market tracker IDC showed that the Chinese tech giant recorded a 50% market share. Other brands, including Vivo and Xiaomi, also outpaced Apple, which fell to sixth place among handset makers in the country. 

Maybe Wedbush analyst Dan Ives needs to rethink his whole “AI is on the doorstep” and the grand iPhone upgrade supercycle that is supposedly ahead.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Ahead of the Fed meeting, our US strategist Philip Marey has just put out an FOMC preview titled ‘Casino’ that acts as reminder that his ahead-of-the-market call of three Fed 25bps cuts this year starting in September still holds – but there is now a substantial risk of a 50bp move this week. The market has been pricing the Fed as close to a 50-50 red-black roulette wheel spin. Yet his title is even better: because those who use analysis to predict the game’s outcome get their hands broken with a hammer.

The Fed want inflation back at 2%. On a headline basis, it’s heading there. However, this is led by deflation in and from China, which the Fed has nothing to do with, and which is prompting tariffs globally. It’s also due to a collapse in global commodities pricing in a global downturn the Fed say isn’t coming. Core inflation is 3.2% y-o-y and not heading lower. On an ultra-core basis, it’s also over target, edging higher, held up by housing. There, rate cuts mean lower mortgage rates, so more housing demand, but not more supply. That means inflation, not deflation, regardless of what White House economic advisor and former Fed Deputy Chair Brainard just said.  

The Fed want to see unemployment stay low – if it’s meaningful given recent demographic changes they apparently knew nothing about. Yes, the last payrolls revision shifted the dynamic there significantly: but again, did the Fed not know this was coming when some had been mentioning it for months in advance? Literally weeks ago, the Fed were unconcerned, now they worry: yet weekly initial jobless claims data are unchanged.

Nor are the Fed using their endless speaking opportunities to underline that financial conditions are not tight, but loose. Mortgage rates are moving lower before the Fed does. Stocks are at record highs. Credit and junk bond spreads are near lows. The two-year yield is so far below the Fed Funds rate that we almost don’t need to bother having a Fed Funds rate, which is a discussion that gets your hand broken by different people.

You count all those cards, and it suggests a near 50-50 call between 25 and 50bps as the first Fed cut. Even so, logic and consistency say the larger move, only seen at the start of past economic shocks, would suggest the Fed fears something they aren’t telling us. As Philip puts it, “if the economy has become fragile, a 50bps cut could even undermine confidence and make it even more fragile.” Indeed, I put it to you that to go 50bps one must contend either the Fed didn’t know what they were doing recently; or don’t know what they are doing now; or both.

Regardless, large men in suits and sunglasses are politely inviting us for a chat about the Fed in a room with no windows. Fed whisperers used as channels for unofficial communication when their constant prattling, dots, and plots still don’t get the market to ‘efficiently price’ what they want, have one message: 50bps. Nick Timiraos; Greg Ip; John Hilsenrath; former Fed members; oddly, even the Financial Times editorial board are all saying it. How have the verbose Fed gotten to the point where this full court press is required, or is this all just coincidental?  

Worse, three Democratic senators, led by Elizabeth Warren, are openly calling for the Fed to go 75bps: these are the same people outraged at the idea that Trump should have a say in setting interest rates. Is that a framing device to make a 50bp move look measured, or is that just a conspiratorial thinking? It’s not like there isn’t a swirl of such thinking around right now, and for very good reasons, even if, again, it risks getting one’s hand broken even typing it.

Were we to get 50bp –which I repeat Philip sees as a tail risk, not a given– would the market see it as nifty (catching up to the curve), shifty (what am I missing?), grifty (who’s on the take?), or Swift-y (political)?

Yet, believe it or not, there are other high-stakes tables being played at elsewhere that matter:

• JPY is trading just above 140 after dipping below it during the Japanese holiday yesterday. The wild ride in the yen carry trade unwind likely isn’t over if the Fed as we hear “50!” and “No, 75!”
• The US has proposed closing the de minimis loophole allowing packages worth less than $800 to enter the US customs free, which is seen as targeting Chinese fast-fashion firms Temu and Shein. Thailand just made a similar move to protect its industries from postal Chinese imports.
• The second assassination attempt on Trump already seems to have a shorter media half-life than the first. Trump tweeted “0-2”, an improvement over “I HATE TAYLOR SWFIT!” The Babylon Bee tweeted: “Kamala safe and in stable condition after attempted interview.” Sadly, this all looks like the ‘DM = EM’ process in motion.
• Canada introduced 30-year mortgages for first-time and new-home buyers, and also allowed mortgage insurance on homes up to C$1.5m (up from C$1m), so buyers can bid on more expensive housing. Guess what this will mean? More expensive housing – demand goes up while supply remains unchanged; and more debt – especially alongside “RATE CUTS!” Can you tell there’s an election soon? And can you tell most politicians don’t have any new political-economy ideas yet?
• Germany reinstituted border controls as its coalition government tries to cap a surge in votes for the far right AfD and old-school far left BSW ahead of another state election this month; yet it also just signed an agreement with Kenya to allow 250,000 jobseekers to enter. That’s as VW may reportedly force through plant closures and 15,000 job cuts this year.
• EU commissioner Thierry Breton, who had threatened Elon Musk, resigned while alleging horse-trading over who gets what roles: what can one retort other than, “I am shocked, shocked that gambling is going on here!” Meanwhile a spat brews over the appointment of another commissioner alleged to have spied for former-communist Yugoslavia.
• Iran-backed Houthis fired what they claim was a hypersonic missile at Israel’s international airport, evading its defences. No harm was done, but the Houthis are getting better weapons, and a larger Israeli response seems inevitable. Israel’s war cabinet also set the goal of returning its displaced population to the north, into which Iran-backed Hezbollah fires almost daily from Lebanon. The US envoy to the region just stated attacking Hezbollah won’t allow displaced Israelis to return home, implying the key is a Hamas hostage deal – which means Hamas have an incentive not to make one to escalate the regional conflict. Meanwhile, rumours swirl PM Netanyahu is to fire defence minister Gallant for the second time (the first reversed after street protests, the interjection of the PM’s wife perhaps stymieing it this time). If it happens, there’s a higher probability of an attack on Lebanon including a ground operation. That would risk the regional conflagration simmering since October 7, 2023. But will it wait until after 5 November?
• The US has underlined its concerns Russia is helping Iran with nuclear technology in exchange for Tehran’s aid in fighting Ukraine. That’s as the new “reformist” Iranian president says his country “didn’t want to enrich uranium at near-weapons grade levels but had been forced to by the US withdrawal from its nuclear deal with world powers.” What can one retort other than, “I am shocked, shocked that nuclear weapons are going on here!”
• Russia announced it will expand its armed forces by 180,000 to a standing army of 1.5 million active servicemen (nearly double that including support staff). The EU feels like it has 180 people thinking how it can thrive in this realpolitik world, and 150 million rejecting their work.

“That’s the truth about Las Vegas. We’re the only winners. The players don’t stand a chance.” – Sam ‘Ace’ Rothstein, Casino

With Donald Trump now the target of two assassination attempts in two months, a new whistleblower report released by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has unveiled a series of alarming security lapses by the U.S. Secret Service (USSS) and other federal agencies during the attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024.

The report, based on information provided by multiple whistleblowers, highlights a pattern of incompetence, mismanagement, and inadequate preparation by the agencies responsible for safeguarding one of the most high-profile figures in American politics.

The report reveals that systemic failures, poor decision-making, and a lack of proper resource allocation within the Secret Service contributed to what is being described as a near-catastrophic breach of presidential security. These findings have sparked a call for urgent oversight and reform of the agency, raising serious questions about its ability to protect national leaders.

Gaps in Security Protocols and Poor Decision-Making

Among the most critical allegations in the whistleblower report is the Secret Service’s decision not to conduct a standard evaluation of the rally site. The Counter Surveillance Division, tasked with identifying potential threats, was notably absent during the event. This failure was compounded by the fact that the Secret Service reportedly declined multiple offers from local law enforcement to employ drone surveillance technology at the rally. The decision was particularly consequential, given that the would-be assassin himself used a drone to conduct surveillance of the rally site hours before launching his attack.

In a striking lapse, law enforcement personnel abandoned a rooftop surveillance position due to hot weather conditions. This rooftop was subsequently used by the shooter to fire shots during the rally, nearly succeeding in his assassination attempt. The report suggests that a significant security breakdown occurred because of a lack of counter sniper coverage and the absence of a coordinated response.

What’s more, the lead Secret Service agent responsible for site security during the rally was also flagged for a history of incompetence. This agent, who had previously been cited for failing to follow established security protocols, was nonetheless placed in charge of protecting the former president. The report raises questions about how and why this individual was entrusted with such a critical role.

Whistleblowers told me that the lead site agent at the Butler rally was someone who wasn’t trusted by other Secret Service agents and didn’t know what she was doing.

Why are these people running security for a former President and a major party nominee? pic.twitter.com/FPxPGA8yGM

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) September 16, 2024

Resource Denial and Inadequate Training

According to whistleblowers, agents on the ground were discouraged from requesting additional security resources, with explicit instructions that such requests would be denied. This led to a situation where those responsible for protecting the former president were left under-resourced and vulnerable. The rally itself was reportedly covered by Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agents who were reassigned from other duties, such as child exploitation cases, with only a two-hour webinar as preparation. Such minimal training, the report claims, was grossly inadequate for the complexities of protecting a high-profile target like Trump.

The whistleblowers further allege that the Secret Service’s Counter Surveillance Division faced significant cuts in both funding and personnel. These reductions were purportedly directed by Acting Director Rowe, who has yet to respond publicly to these claims. These resource cuts, whistleblowers argue, directly impacted the agency’s ability to maintain the level of vigilance needed to thwart potential threats.

Internal Concerns and Allegations of Retaliation

The report also raises concerns about internal culture and leadership within the Secret Service, suggesting that agents who voiced concerns over security protocols were either ignored or faced retaliation. Some whistleblowers allege that they were subject to pressure or threatened with career repercussions if they raised alarms about inadequate security measures. This internal atmosphere, as depicted in the report, could have contributed to a chilling effect, discouraging agents from advocating for necessary precautions.

Following the attempted assassination, several high-level Secret Service officials were reportedly “encouraged to retire,” a move viewed by critics as an attempt to avoid deeper scrutiny and congressional oversight. This, the report suggests, points to a culture of evasion rather than accountability within the agency.

The whistleblower report highlights the slow response of executive agencies to the inquiries made by lawmakers. Senator Hawley’s office noted that while they had asked for clarifications from both the Secret Service and DHS, the responses have been delayed and lacking in detail. Notably, none of the agencies have outright denied the whistleblower allegations, which has only fueled further concern over the veracity of the claims.

Hawley emphasized the need for a comprehensive investigation and reforms, stating, “These failures expose significant vulnerabilities in our nation’s security apparatus that cannot be ignored. It is imperative that we hold those responsible to account and implement immediate changes to prevent such a failure from happening again.”

Several questions remain unanswered. For instance, why were critical security measures, such as rooftop surveillance and counter-sniper coverage, not enforced? Who within the Secret Service or DHS was responsible for denying requests for additional security resources? And what was the motive behind the assassination attempt, given the assassin’s use of encrypted communications?

Moreover, the report points to broader implications for U.S. security policy. In the wake of the assassination attempt, there is growing pressure on both Congress and the Biden administration to undertake sweeping reforms of the Secret Service. This would likely include revisiting funding levels, personnel training, and perhaps most critically, ensuring a culture of accountability within the agency.

The Biden administration has so far not commented directly on the findings of the whistleblower report. However, lawmakers from both parties are expected to press for further hearings and investigations into the matter.

A Call for Whistleblower Protections and Further Reforms

Hawley has promised protections for any new whistleblowers who provide additional information on the Secret Service’s failures. “We cannot afford to sweep these issues under the rug,” he said. “The American people deserve a transparent and accountable government, and that starts with a thorough investigation into these alarming revelations.”

Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

Donald Trump didn’t end up talking about World Liberty Financial — his family’s new crypto platform — during a so-called launch event on X, but the team eventually shared information about the project’s token.

Former President Trump was interviewed by crypto influencer Farokh Sarmad in a Sept. 16 X Spaces, his first public appearance since an apparent assassination attempt on Sept. 15, which he spoke about to open the livestream.

Despite Trump billing the livestream as a “State of Crypto address,” it took about 16 minutes for him to mention the word, saying: “We’re going to make our country greater than ever before, and you’re going to be happy, and you’re going to love your crypto.”

While Trump spoke for around 45 minutes, he didn’t share any information about World Liberty Financial, details of which have already been sparse.

Join me live from Mar-A-Lago at 8:00PM Eastern, tonight on X Spaces. Set a reminder and be sure to tune in! https://t.co/MXTu3hxVFP

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2024

It wasn’t until over two hours into the livestream that one of the project’s leaders, Zak Folkman, shared that “there will be a token.”

Reading from a pre-written statement, Folkman said it was planning to sell non-transferrable WLFI tokens, which “are pure governance tokens, only providing the right to make proposals and vote on matters related to the platform.”

He added that the sale of WLFI tokens to US persons would only be available to accredited investors.

“Although we don’t consider WLFI to be a security, in the light of regulatory uncertainty surrounding tokens and token sales in general in the United States, we’ve decided that it’s prudent to limit the token sales to certain persons who would be eligible to participate in transactions that are exempt from registration under the US federal securities law,” Folkman said.

“So that means that US persons may only participate in a potential token sale if they have been reasonably verified as accredited investors.”

He added a potential token sale to non-US persons would similarly be limited by “applicable restrictions.”

Folkman and fellow project leader Chase Herro, along with Eric and Donald Trump Jr., have touted how the platform would remove barriers that exist in the traditional finance system.

Folkman did not share what WLFI’s total supply would be but said it would have an “incredibly fair token distribution” with “approximately 63%” set aside for sale to the public.

He added that there had been “no pre-sales” or “early buy-ins with discounted allocation” for venture capitalists. However, 20% of the tokens were allocated to the platform’s team and advisers, with the remaining roughly 17% for user rewards.

An earlier reported white paper draft suggested that 70% of the WLFI token supply would be held aside for the team, with the remainder allocated for public sale.

No details were shared on the World Liberty Finance platform itself. Reports said it will be a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform for borrowing and lending similar to Dough Finance, which was hacked for $1.8 million in July.

The white paper draft also mentioned credit systems for borrowing and lending built on the popular DeFi app Aave, which World Liberty Financial said it is “working with.” The project has also said it wants to drive “the mass adoption of stablecoins.”

Trump — who in 2019 said that cryptocurrency’s values are “based on thin air” — has changed his tune and has sold four non-fungible token (NFT) collections, accepted crypto for his campaign contributions and cozied up to the crypto industry, promising to be a “crypto president.”

After a significant decline in July, US Industrial Production rebounded dramatically in August, rising 0.8% MoM (as July was revised down from -0.6% to -0.9% MoM). That lifted Industrial Production back up to unchanged on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing also soared 0.9% MoM, lifting the YoY print to +0.2%…

Source: Bloomberg

Most major market groups posted gains in August, with the jump in the output of motor vehicles and parts contributing to the strength recorded across a variety of categories.

The index for consumer goods rose 0.7 percent, as a 10.5 percent increase in the index for automotive products more than offset a small decline in the index for nondurable consumer goods.

Similarly, the index for business equipment stepped up 1.4 percent in August, supported by a 6.6 percent gain in the index for transit equipment.

The index for materials grew 0.9 percent in August, with gains in all its subcomponents, including the index for durable goods materials, which rose 1.6 percent and was bolstered by the output of motor vehicle parts.

Beyond the influence of motor vehicles and parts, defense and space equipment posted a gain of 0.5 percent and was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level.

Business supplies recorded the sole decline among major market groups, edging down 0.2 percent in August after decreasing 0.7 percent in July.

Capacity Utilization ticked modestly higher in August…

Source: Bloomberg

Is US manufacturing really swinging from its biggest drop since January to its biggest jump since Feb?

And one more thing – are we really going to cut rates by 50bps after a big surge in manufacturing?

Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, has responded to the US government’s directive urging entities and nations abroad to ban all activities by Russian state broadcaster RT and other Moscow-funded networks.

Meta on Tuesday announced it is booting RT from its apps globally, agreeing with the Biden administration on its charge of deceptive influence operations. “After careful consideration, we expanded our ongoing enforcement against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT and other related entities are now banned from our apps globally for foreign interference activity,” a Meta spokesman said.

At this point no RT page or channel will be present on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads. RT’s Facebook page with 7.2 million followers has disappeared as has its Instagram page with one million followers.

The Kremlin has responded on Tuesday blasting the move, saying: “With these actions, Meta is discrediting itself… This complicates the prospects for normalizing our relations with Meta.” And RT stated that “US Big Tech cannot stop RT from making its voice heard” while further pointing out “META/Facebook already blocked RT in Europe two years ago, now they’re censoring information flow to the rest of the world.”

Washington starting last Friday took its war against the state-funded English language broadcaster to a global level, urging all nations to block its broadcasts and close down offices.

Already back in 2022 after being officially branded a foreign agent by the US government which resulted in major platforms dropping its programing, RT America’s offices in the US were shuttered and it was effectively booted from the country. But on Friday the Biden administration unveiled a new effort which seeks to expose RT as part of “malign global intelligence and influence operations”.

So now Meta appears to be dutifully and rather quickly falling in line behind Washington’s directives.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that “we know that RT possessed cyber capabilities and engaged in covert information and influence operations and military procurement.”

US officials are further alleging that Russian intelligence efforts utilized RT to the point of crowdfunding for military gear. “Under the cover of RT, information produced through this unit flows to Russian intelligence services, Russian media outlets, Russian mercenary groups, and other state and proxy arms of the Russian government.”

RT issued a response Tuesday on its international broadcast, which it subsequently released on X. So far, Elon Musk has shown no willingness to ban RT from the platform he owns…

⚡️ Meta has banned several Russian news networks, including RT, for alleged ‘foreign interference activity.’ Before the ban, RT had over 7 million followers on Facebook.

On behalf of our team: Silence us all you want, but there’s no way to silence the truth.

QUESTION MORE! pic.twitter.com/DX4NC1AgL9

— RT (@RT_com) September 17, 2024

Blinken further told reporters Friday, “Our most powerful antidote to Russia’s lies is the truth” and that the administration is “shining a bright light on what the Kremlin is trying to do under the cover of darkness.”

The timing of the public rollout of this major anti-RT initiative is interesting and curious to say the least, given the US is getting closer to the November election, and admin officials and the Democratic party are busy resurrecting the old ‘Russiagate’ talking points against Trump. There are also the usual same election ‘foreign interference’ warnings being loudly sounded from US officials. This has also included talk of China and Iran as supposedly meddling in significant ways. But ultimately this is all part of the ongoing infowar related to the Ukraine conflict.

After August’s upside surprise (+1.0% MoM, thanks to some shenanigans in the used car sales segment of the economy), US Retail Sales was expected to decline MoM (-0.2% MoM) in August (with BofA suggesting a 0.3% MoM decline).

But…. just like in July, the headline retail sales print for August beat expectations, rising 0.1% MoM (with July revised up to +1.1% MoM) thanks to non-store retailers…

This slowed the YoY retail sales print to +2.1%…

Source: Bloomberg

However, core retail sales (ex-Autos) rose just 0.1% MoM (less than the +0.2% expected), but the core YoY print rose to +3.9%…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Motor Vehicle sales contracted while non-store retailers (internet) surged…

After last month’s surge, vehicle sales were flat MoM at the highs ignoring the slide in CPI Used car prices which suggest sales are anything but robust…

Source: Bloomberg

Non-Store Retailers hit a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Does anyone else think that line is just a little too linear for the real world?

Will any of this stop Powell and his pals from cutting rates by 50bps tomorrow? Of course not…

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Claudia Sahm claims to have invented a recession indicator created by Ed McKelvey. Now she says the indicator is wrong. Let’s investigate.

Data from the BLS, chart by Mish

What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator?

Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate average, subtract the 12-month low, and if the difference is 0.30 percentage point or more, then a recession has started.

Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, created the indicator.

Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House Economist, modified the indicator from 0.3 to 0.5.

The rule triggered in August but Sahm is in denial.

Sahm Denial

Marketplace discusses Sahm’s Recession Denial.

When the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department was released in August at 8:30 a.m., it packed a punch. Something called the Sahm Rule had been triggered — it was like an economic fire alarm was going off.

“I was live on the radio, and they read the numbers out loud. I said, ‘OK, so the Sahm Rule says we would be in a recession, but Sahm says we’re not,’” said Claudia Sahm.

Sahm discovered the rule when she was studying previous recessions as part of a project to help policymakers prepare for the next one. 

So why is Sahm, the economist, discounting Sahm, the rule, now?

The unemployment rate, Sahm explained, has an Achilles’ heel: It doesn’t only go up when people lose their jobs, it can also go up when the number of people looking for jobs goes up.

“When you have people enter the workforce, it can take longer to find a job, even in the best of times,” she said. “That will push up the unemployment rate.” 

Sahm certainly did not discover the rule. She modified Ed McKelvey’s rule with no credit given to McKelvey.

And it might behoove Sahm to actually investigate her explanation.

In 7 of 10 recessions, the labor force was higher in the third month of recession than the start of it.

In isolation, that would tend to raise the unemployment rate as Sahm says. But it is also normal behavior.

The Covid recession only lasted 2 months and was so unusual in many other ways that it’s best to remove it for comparison purposes. But if you insist, then call the score 7 of 11.

Recessions Tend to Start Slowly

In two recessions, 1970 and 1973, employment was higher in the third month of recession than the first, by 83,000 and 353,000 respectively.

Nonfarm payrolls were up by 275,000 and 223,000 respectively.

And that is after revisions!

So, don’t claim the labor market is too strong for a recession to have started.

The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?

On September 10, I commented The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?

Many eyes are on the McKelvey recession indicator. Too many?

That would probably be the case if everyone believed it. [But heck, not even Sahm believes it!]

I calculate the odds based on past history of recessions at well over 50 percent. Click on the link for how I arrived at the percentage.

Recession Supporting Factors

September 3: Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in July

September 6: Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions

September 7: BLS Negative Job Revisions 15 of Last 21 Months

September 9: Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession