Last week, Metals Focus attended the China Silver and Photovoltaic Industry Chain Seminar in Wuxi. During this event, our research consultant, Elvis Chou, presented on the outlook for the silver market, including the photovoltaic (PV) sector.
As has been widely reported, the PV market has undergone substantial changes over the past decade, with the industry’s expansion significantly boosting demand for silver.
As a reminder, in World Silver Survey 2024 Metals Focus reported a 64% y/y surge in silver PV offtake to a record total of 6,017t (193Moz). However, with technological progress and market fluctuations, it is important to examine if this trend will continue, or if new dynamics will emerge, laying out a different path for this sector.
Following the dramatic surge in installed capacity over the last two years, which reached 444GW last year against 182GW in 2021, the PV sector has achieved a substantial base level of demand.
However, taking into account several developments, including global cuts in solar energy bid prices, increased financing costs, fewer government subsidy projects, and diminishing investment returns, it is widely anticipated that the industry’s expansion will start to moderate.
That said, the H1 performance indicates that, except for Europe, solar installations in other major markets, including China, India, the US, the Middle East and Africa, all increased, reflecting a positive trend in solar adoption across these locations.
However, what also emerged were indications of a somewhat slower pace of installations as the first half progressed. This prompted an immediate reaction from the supply chain, which initially scaled back production and has continued to manage output in Q3.
As a result, this quarter is experiencing a slower-than-expected peak season, which in turn has introduced some uncertainty in trying to project demand for the latter half of the year. The somewhat cautious outlook for PV demand in the coming months has also intensified competition within the supply chain, which is already dealing with surplus capacity, resulting in weaker module prices.
For instance, in China in Q3.23 the bidding price (how much the government pays for power from a new project) was RMB 1.6-1.7 per watt, but this has plummeted to RMB 0.7 per watt this September. This means that most panel and module manufacturers are now losing money. To help address this these companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing product efficiency and reducing costs.
As part of this strategy, N-type solar cells (which covers TopCon and HJT), known for their superior efficiency, have emerged as the market’s dominant technology this year (as widely expected). The initial market perception was that, with the increasing popularity of N-type cells, the growth in silver consumption would exceed that of installations, due to their higher silver loadings compared to P-type cells, like PERC.
Contrary to these expectations, our field research revealed that Chinese producers have made more progress in thrifting and substitution than previously anticipated. Since the beginning of this year, each quarter the industry has reduced the amount of silver paste that is applied to a panel by roughly 4-5% compared with the previous quarter.
This has been achieved through a series of improvements, notably: upgrading production processes to increase efficiencies and shrink line width by introducing Laser Enhance Contact Optimisation (LECO); optimising the structural design by transitioning from Super Multi-BusBar (SMBB) to Zero-BusBar (0BB) conductive lines, and introducing some silver coated copper powder.
As a result, we expect silver usage per watt to drop by 10-15% y/y in 2024. And so, with this cost-cutting roadmap in place, leading panel and module producers have effectively reduced the proportion of silver as a share of the total module cost to less than 10%. This in turn has helped to cushion the effects of elevated and volatile silver prices.
Additionally, to protect themselves against further gains in the silver price, these companies are looking to implement further cost reductions well into 2025.
As the single largest application for silver in the industrial sector, accounting for more than 30% of global silver industrial offtake, PV has had a profound impact on global silver supply chains.
Despite the above headwinds, we still expect the sector to consume around 6,600t (212Moz) of silver this year, a new high. Considering the huge potential for expansion in the green energy space, we believe that solar energy will remain pivotal in the industrial silver market in the coming years.
However, the worldwide deployment of solar systems is encountering several obstacles that could hinder its growth, including the capacity of the underlying power grid, the impact of land utilization, and challenges associated with panel recycling.
Therefore, as newly added capacity broadly stabilizes, albeit at record highs, further cuts to silver loadings may exceed the growth rate of installations, potentially leading to a slightly softer trend in total silver consumption. Even so, this should not detract from the fact that silver PV demand will remain historically high and so retain its position as the largest single end-use of global silver industrial demand.
Metals Focus is a London-based independent precious metals consultancy specializing in gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium markets. They offer research, consultancy, and bespoke services, producing reports like Precious Metals Weekly and World Silver Survey. Their global team spans key markets, including the UK, Singapore, Mumbai, and Shanghai, providing industry insights for professionals, investors, and governments.
Navient, once the largest student loan servicer in the United States, has been permanently barred from federal student loan servicing and ordered to pay a $120 million settlement following years of alleged regulatory and legal violations.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announced the proposed order against the servicer formerly known as Sallie Mae on Sept. 12. In 2017, the company at one point serviced loans of more than 12 million borrowers, half of which were accounts under its contract with the Department of Education, accounting for more than $300 billion in federal and private student loans.
The CFPB estimates that hundreds of thousands of consumers may be eligible for redress in the settlement, but the agency has not yet determined a precise number of consumers, or the amount each individual will receive.
The CFPB will identify consumers who are eligible for redress under the order in the coming months. There is no need for consumers to contact the CFPB or take any other action to get a check, and eligible consumers will receive a check from the CFPB or its contractor in the mail, the agency said.
“For years, Navient’s top executives profited handsomely by exploiting students and taxpayers,” CFPB director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “By banning the notorious student loan giant from federal student loan servicing and ensuring the wind-down of these operations, the CFPB will finally put an end to the years of abuse.”
The settlement stems from CFPB’s 2017 lawsuit against Navient. The lawsuit accused the company of steering student loan borrowers into costly repayment options, depriving them of more affordable income-driven repayment plans, and engaging in other unlawful practices.
The order, which is pending court approval, would impose a permanent ban on Navient’s involvement in servicing federal direct loans and prohibit the company from acquiring most loans under the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP).
Under the terms of the settlement, Navient will pay a $20 million penalty and provide $100 million in redress to borrowers harmed by its practices.
This includes compensation for borrowers who were allegedly steered into forbearance—a practice that allowed Navient to avoid the more complex process of enrolling borrowers in income-driven repayment plans but led to increased interest charges for many.
According to the CFPB, these actions resulted in numerous borrowers paying significantly more than they should have.
The settlement represents what CFPB said is a broader effort by state and federal agencies to hold loan servicers accountable for their role in steering borrowers into forbearance and other harmful repayment strategies.
U.S. Under Secretary of Education James Kvaal praised the CFPB’s action, stating, “I applaud the CFPB for obtaining concrete relief for borrowers and deterring similar failures in the future.”
In recent years, Navient has been at the center of several legal battles, including a 2014 case in which it was ordered to pay nearly $100 million for overcharging servicemembers, and a 2022 settlement with 39 state attorneys general for $1.85 billion over its alleged predatory lending practices.
In response to the CFPB’s latest enforcement action, Navient issued a statement saying that while the company disagrees with the allegations, the resolution is consistent with its plans to move forward.
“This agreement puts these decade-old issues behind us,” Navient said. “Navient is no longer a servicer or purchaser of federal student loans.”
The company ceased servicing federal direct loans in 2021, transferring its remaining loans to a third-party servicer, it said in the statement.
Earlier this year, Navient also outsourced the servicing of its legacy FFELP student loans. The CFPB’s order ensures that Navient can no longer directly service federal student loans or expand its FFELP portfolio.
In addition to the financial settlement, the order mandates that Navient take several steps to protect borrowers’ rights, including ensuring that they can enroll in affordable repayment plans.
The CFPB will distribute checks to affected borrowers, cautioning them to remain vigilant against scammers who may attempt to exploit the redress process.
The CFPB also will identify injured consumers who will receive redress for Navient’s forbearance steering practices and Navient’s furnishing of inaccurate information for consumers who had their loans discharged due to a total and permanent disability. For the forbearance steering claims, these determinations may take into account the length of time the borrower was enrolled in forbearance, among other criteria, the agency said.
China has started to build factories across Africa to manufacture electric vehicles, a strategy market analysts say will likely flood the world with cheap EVs and allow Chinese companies to dominate the global automobile industry far into the future.
Automakers under the communist regime are already benefiting from huge subsidies, resulting in dramatic increases in production and allowing China to severely undercut prices of EVs made elsewhere, including in the United States.
One study shows Beijing has given China’s EV manufacturers at least $231 billion in state aid over 15 years, from 2009 until the end of 2023.
The automobile sector in mainland China has been the largest in the world measured by unit production since 2008, said JATO Dynamics, a global leader in automotive data, analysis, and intelligence.
Automakers from the globe’s second-biggest economy already account for more than half of the EVs produced in the world, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“China wants to maintain this advantage by adding Africa to its quiver but it knows there are factors beyond its control. For example, Chinese-built EVs currently get hit by 100 percent tax when sold in America,” said Layton Beard, an analyst at South Africa’s Automobile Association.
“I’ve never seen such proactive moves in the global motor vehicle industry as I’m seeing from the Chinese; it seems like they’re up to something new every week.”
In May, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that tariffs on Chinese EVs would increase from 25 percent to 100 percent.
“With extensive subsidies and non-market practices leading to substantial risks of overcapacity, China’s exports of EVs grew by 70 percent from 2022 to 2023—jeopardizing productive investments elsewhere,” according to a statement from the White House.
“A 100 percent tariff rate on EVs will protect American manufacturers from China’s unfair trade practices.”
In July, the European Union raised duties on Chinese-made EVs to almost 50 percent, as sales figures showed cars from the East are becoming popular throughout Europe because they’re much cheaper.
Beard, like other global auto trade experts who spoke to The Epoch Times, believes that the planned Chinese EV manufacturing rollout in Africa is designed, in great part, to “offset present and future loss of profits” caused by Western trade restrictions.
He said Beijing is positioning Chinese automobile giants, including BYD, Chery, SAIC Motor Corp, and Changan Auto, for “aggressive” moves into markets previously dominated by Japanese, American, and European models.
The latest vehicle market intelligence report released by JATO Dynamics said China’s ascension in 2023 to replace Japan as the world’s biggest auto exporter “proved it can mount a credible vehicle export effort in the face of trade barriers.”
The report added that while Chinese EVs aren’t very prevalent on European or American roads, “they are increasingly on the radar.”
Surveying the opinions of thousands of Americans and Europeans in 2023, JATO concluded that more than half of respondents “are aware of at least one Chinese brand, including BYD, Leap Motor, and Nio.
Across the board, respondents say that they would consider a Chinese EV if priced 20 percent lower than a similar non-Chinese model.”
JATO said that last year, for the first time, China’s carmakers outsold their U.S. counterparts, “a testament to the shifting power dynamics in the global auto market.”
The analysis said Chinese brands led by BYD sold 13.4 million new vehicles last year, beating the 11.9 million units delivered by American brands such as Ford and Chevrolet.
JATO added that Chinese manufacturers’ market share “soared” across the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa, with the likes of SAIC and Geely also “making inroads in more mature markets” such as Europe and Australia.
China’s customs bureau said the country exported 5.22 million automobiles in 2023—a 57 percent year-on-year rise—of which one in three was fully electric.
In its analysis of the international auto market in 2024, Virta Global, a multinational company providing renewable battery charging solutions, said demand for electric vehicles is driven by efforts to decarbonize.
“EVs are to play a central role in the ambitious objective of zero-emission targets set for 2050. The market is growing. It’s growing fast. And it’s growing everywhere,” said Virta.
According to the IEA, worldwide EV sales reached almost 14 million in 2023, 35 percent up on 2022, with the global electric car fleet rising to 40 million last year.
The agency said the upward trend in global EV sales is continuing in 2024, growing by 25 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2023.
Virta predicts at least 17 million sales by the end of 2024.
“Electric cars could account for 20 percent of total car sales by then,” its report said.
At the recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit in Beijing, CCP leader Xi Jinping promised to pump almost $51 billion into African economies over the next three years.
“Chinese officials told us a big chunk of this money will be used to construct electric vehicle manufacturing plants for the big Chinese carmakers, providing thousands of jobs to Africans and also making our roads full of clean energy vehicles,” said Joseph Kahama, a member of a Tanzanian business delegation that attended FOCAC.
Norman Lamprecht, chief trade and research officer at the Johannesburg-based Automotive Business Council, said no country is coming “remotely close to what the Chinese are doing in terms of sheer numbers and they’re also being far more daring in terms of EV production than any other country.
“America is still fixated on making and driving cars driven by fossil fuels, and to a smaller degree hybrid vehicles,” Lamprecht told The Epoch Times.
“The Japanese giants, Toyota and Nissan, have also been much more cautious than their Chinese counterparts on EVs, putting production efforts into hybrid models.”
He said these factors have caused the Japanese and Americans to lose ground in the global EV sector.
“But we have to acknowledge that the Chinese get a lot of help from their government that others don’t get and that cushion allows the Chinese to take risks,” Lamprecht said.
JATO Dynamics analyst, Felipe Munoz, told The Epoch Times that consistently high car prices among the the world’s legacy automakers, driven by “a certain measure of negligence,” has “inadvertently driven consumers toward more affordable Chinese alternatives,” especially in the EV segment.
Research completed by Shiv Shivaraman, vehicle market analyst for global financial advisory firm, AlixPartners, shows EVs currently sell in China for an average of $34,400, considerably lower than the $55,242 average selling price in the United States.
And Chinese EVs are getting cheaper—earlier this year BYD released its Seagull hatchback with a price tag of just $9,698.
“Many factors drive the disparity between prices of Chinese-made EVs and those made elsewhere,” Shivaraman told The Epoch Times.
“Chinese automakers have a significant cost advantage due to much lower labor rates, increased scale, healthy government subsidies, and more favorable battery costs, as many of the world’s EV batteries or components are sourced from China.”
Beard said China will maintain, and “probably even boost,” the advantages it enjoys domestically in EV production when its automakers “set up shop” in Africa.
“You can bet the Chinese government is working out very favorable terms for investing and doing business in Africa with its African counterparts, who Beijing has been doing business with for decades,” he said.
“Labor costs are also going to be low in Africa.”
Lamprecht believes the main reason Chinese carmakers are preparing to “sweep into Africa” is their desire to manufacture at the source of many of the minerals and metals essential to EVs and batteries.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is closely allied with political elites in most of Africa’s top producers of rare-earth or critical minerals and metals such as cobalt, copper, lithium, and manganese.
Professor Lauren Johnston, of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, told The Epoch Times that Beijing’s proposed investments in EV factories in Africa could be an “extension of its strategy” to control the means of production of renewable energy technologies, from wind turbines to solar panels to electric vehicle batteries.
Johnston said Chinese mining presence in Africa is concentrated in five countries: Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
“Among them, the DRC, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are the crucible of the new green energy race in Africa. They’re home to Africa’s copper belt and have the biggest reserves of lithium, copper, and cobalt,” she said.
More than 70 percent of the world’s cobalt is produced in the DRC, and China owns 72 percent of the DRC’s cobalt and copper mines.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, China currently produces 60 percent of the world’s rare-earth minerals but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it’s importing precious minerals and metals from other countries, mainly Africa, for processing.
“This has given China a near monopoly,” said the think-tank.
Chinese mining companies are also well established in Zimbabwe, where Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, opened a $300 million lithium processing plant in 2023.
Johnston said it would “make sense” for China’s biggest EV investments to be in Africa’s most developed and “technologically sound” economies, with good logistics.
“That leaves your usual suspects as probable hosts for Chinese car manufacturers, countries like South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria; maybe also Ghana and Tunisia,” she said.
Beard said automakers SAIC and BYD have already started selling limited numbers of EVs in several African markets, including South Africa, Tunisia, Rwanda, and Morocco.
Parks Tau, South Africa’s Minister of Trade and Industry, told The Epoch Times that BYD has expressed “strong interest to work and invest” in Africa’s top vehicle manufacturer and exporter.
“We have vast experience in car production and we also mine vast amounts of lithium and manganese that are indispensable to EV battery production,” he said.
In Kenya, Chinese EV maker, Chery, has partnered with a local company to invest $20 million in the country’s EV sector.
Chery is building an assembly plant in Nairobi to manufacture 6,000 EVs annually, promising to create 3,000 jobs.
In Morocco, China is funding what it said will be the biggest renewable energy battery factory in the Southern Hemisphere.
China’s steel-making giant, Chinalco, is among the companies set to develop the world’s largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposit, in Guinea.
Iron ore is used to produce steel, which plays a crucial part in the renewable energy sector in several ways, including in wind turbines and in mounting structures for solar panels.
Beard said China is already preparing for a world “saturated” with EVs by putting policies in place to dominate global sales of used cars.
In 2019, Beijing began rescinding a policy forbidding exports of used vehicles of any kind. Since that year, the government has granted 27 cities and provinces the right to export second-hand cars.
In 2022, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the country exported almost 70,000 used vehicles, a significant increase on 2021, when fewer than 20,000 were exported.
In 2023, the ministry released a draft policy on second-hand car export that, once approved, will allow the export of used automobiles from all regions of China.
Africa has the largest used vehicle market in the world, according to market research firm Mordor Intelligence.
JP Morgan And Bank Of America Take Strides To Curb ‘Overworked’ Junior Bankers’ Hours
Years after the infamous Goldman Sachs slide deck, wherein junior bankers complained about working long hours on…of all places, Wall Street…it appears that banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America are taking steps to monitor and limit junior banker hours.
The move comes after a Wall Street Journal investigation into what it calls a “dangerous culture of overwork” on Wall Street.
JPMorgan is now capping junior bankers’ hours at 80 per week, while Bank of America is rolling out a tool requiring detailed time tracking, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal.
These changes follow a Wall Street Journal investigation revealing that junior bankers at Bank of America were told to lie about their hours to stay within limits. The debate over junior bankers’ workloads, with entry-level salaries up to $200,000, has long divided Wall Street.
Many new bankers are drawn to the promise of wealth but report that excessive hours take a toll on their mental and physical health.
The report once again brings up the death of 35-year-old Bank of America associate Leo Lukenas III, who worked multiple 100-hour weeks on a $2 billion deal.
An autopsy revealed he died from a blood clot in a coronary artery. In response, JPMorgan introduced its first-ever cap of 80 hours a week for junior bankers, the same limit as for medical residents in New York.
JPMorgan already offers a protected window from 6 p.m. Friday to noon Saturday and guarantees one full weekend off every three months, though bankers often work 80 to 120 hours during intense projects.
Bank of America had previously capped junior bankers’ hours, but the Wall Street Journal found the rules were often violated, with some managers instructing employees to lie about their hours. After the Journal’s initial report, the bank urged staff to report any pressure to falsify time records.
Recently, Bank of America introduced a new tool requiring U.S. junior bankers to log their hours daily and specify which deals they’re working on and the overseeing senior bankers. The tool, set to launch next week, also allows junior staff to report their workload capacity on a scale of 1 to 4. It was developed prior to Lukenas’s death.
“We successfully piloted this improved technology platform earlier this year to help our team more efficiently serve our investment banking clients,” a B of A spokesperson told the Journal.
We wrote back in July that junior bankers were working 100 hour weeks again. We’ll be interested to see how long this ‘close tracking’ of hours lasts. Our guess is not a second longer than it needs to in order to get the desired PR effect and get the public off their backs. Old habits die hard on, on Wall Street in particular.
The Saudis have joined other Asian countries in ditching their long-term sensitivity to the gold price. Evidence suggests the Saudi central bank has been covertly buying 160 tonnes of gold in Switzerland since early 2022, contributing to the current gold bull market.
Although the Saudis played a key role in the birth of the global dollar standard in the early 1970s, this time around they might even become a lynchpin for its dissolution.
Introduction
Until recently, Saudi Arabia’s gold demand would decline when the gold price went up and strengthen when the price went south. This dampened volatility in the gold market, which for many decades was ruled by the West.
Ever since the West immobilized Russia’s dollar assets in February 2022, those with diplomatic disagreements with the West are increasingly exchanging their dollars for physical gold. Saudi Arabia is the latest country—after China and Thailand—of which I have found cross-border trade statistics showing it has shifted from being price sensitive to a price driver.
During the entire rally from late 2022 until present, the Saudis have been a constant net importer which has boosted the gold price. The icing on the cake is that part of the flow into Saudi Arabia, the gold coming from Switzerland, actually goes to the Saudi central bank, aka the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA).
Exposing Saudi Central Bank’s Hidden Gold Buying
Formally, any country’s cross-border gold trade statistics refer to “non-monetary” metal, meaning privately owned. Monetary gold—owned by central banks—is exempt from being disclosed in trade numbers. As I have demonstrated in a previous article, though, the non-monetary gold crossing the Chinese border is often a shipment heading for the vaults of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) regardless.
Among industry insiders, SAMA is known for having accelerated secret gold purchases since 2022. By comparing the World Gold Council’s (WGC) estimates of total central bank buying (based on field research), to what central banks report to have bought to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we can conclude “unreported” purchases went through the roof starting in 2022. People familiar with the matter, but who prefer to stay anonymous, told me this is largely due to the PBoC, and to a lesser extent SAMA. That’s clue number one.
Because gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) hardly exist in Saudi Arabia, we can estimate SAMA purchases by comparing net imports to local consumer demand. Not coincidentally, net imports began to consistently outpace consumer demand in the second quarter of 2022, right after the Ukraine war started. SAMA was (and is) in a hurry to get its hands on physical gold.
A source once told me that central banks often buy gold in Switzerland and London and have bullion banks pack and ship the gold to wherever the central banks want. This way it shows up in cross-border trade data because the bullion banks have to deal with customs.
Switzerland Pinpointed as Ground Zero for Secret Purchases
To find out if SAMA shops for gold bars in the Swiss Alps, I have subtracted Saudi consumer demand from its net imports and compared the outcome (gold imported but not sold to consumers) to gross exports from Switzerland to Saudi Arabia. The result shows a strong match since Q2 2022, confirming SAMA has quietly been buying gold in Switzerland.
Saudi Arabia Owns Way More Gold Than It Wants Known
The data suggests SAMA bought approximately 160 tonnes of gold in recent years (and it was likely also buying in 2015 in Switzerland). How much it holds in total is unknown to me, partly because Saudi gold trade data only starts in 2015. What happened before that is up for grabs. Neither do I know how much additional gold SAMA might be buying elsewhere.
One thing is for certain: Saudi Arabia owns much more gold than it wants the world to believe.
The last time the Saudi central bank updated its official gold reserves was in February 2008, when it conveyed to hold 332 tonnes, which was 180 tonnes more than in January 2008. Obviously SAMA didn’t buy 180 tonnes in one month.
Just like the reported gold reserves by the PBoC, the number put out by SAMA is purely political. By hiding how much precious metal the nation truly owns, the House of Saud avoids openly upsetting the United States.
But the evolution of countries in Asia storing more and more of their trade surpluses in gold—a time-tested neutral and sanction proof reserve asset—is clear. Next to 160 tonnes by SAMA, I calculate the PBoC bought 1,600 tonnes since the war in Ukraine. Both central banks, the former of the most influential country in the oil market and the latter of the second largest economy globally, must be confident in what direction the gold market is headed.
How the above ties into other concerted initiatives by Asian nations to bypass the U.S. dollar, we will discuss in the next article.
Originally a sound engineer in the Dutch movie industry, Jan Nieuwenhuijs has devoted the last decade to in-depth gold market research. His commentary and analysis has earned him international recognition as a top expert on the Chinese gold market, the COMEX futures market, the London Bullion Market, and the Turkish gold market. Currently, he writes about the international monetary system, central bank gold policies, the mechanics of the global gold market, the gold price, and economics in general.
Might the New World Order use biased, pre-manipulated artificial intelligence programs to try to “deprogram” those with unpopular opinions by persuading them that their logic does not compute?
A recent study on that subject underwritten by the John Templeton Foundation might give so-called conspiracy theorists one more thing to be paranoid about, according to Popular Science.
Critics have already sounded the alarm that leftist radicals in Silicon Valley and elsewhere were manipulating the algorithms used to train AI so that it automatically defaulted to anti-conservative biases.
The next step may be programming any verboten viewpoints into the realm of “conspiracy theory,” then having powerful computers challenge human users to a battle of logic that inevitably is stacked against them with cherrypicked data.
The study, titled “Durably reducing conspiracy beliefs through dialogues with AI,” attempted to counter the common view that some people will not change their minds, even when presented with facts and evidence.
Addressing the problem of “widespread belief in unsubstantiated conspiracy theories,” researchers postulated that conspiracy theories can, contrary to the scientific narrative, be countered by way of systematic fact-checking.
Among those theories tested were more traditional conspiracies such as those involving the assassination of John F. Kennedy or the possibility of alien landings that were known to the United States government.
But others included more immediately politicized claims, such as the lawfulness of COVID lockdowns or the validity of the 2020 presidential election, both of which are a “major source of public concern.”
The study was conducted by having conspiratorial participants engage in brief conversations with AI, with the aim of “curing” the participants of their ostensibly false opinions.
Researchers concluded that “the treatment reduced participants’ belief in their chosen conspiracy theory by 20% on average,” suggesting that “treating” people with certain facts can indeed alter their opinions, particularly when those facts come from AI bots.
The “treatment” received also reportedly “persisted undiminshed for at least 2 months,” meaning that such conditioning could eventuate in regular treatment for those deemed conspiracy theorists.
Ultimately, then, AI conditioning was determined to be a potentially useful tool in addressing the “psychological needs and motivations” of such people. Researchers speculated that the technology could be implemented online in the coming years, particularly in online forums or on social media.
David Rand, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-authored the study, told reporters that he was optimistic about the future of AI conditioning.
“This is really exciting,” he said. “It seemed like it worked and it worked quite broadly.”
These Are The 12 Countries Adding Millionaires At The Fastest Rate
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu ranked the top 12 countries by their rate of millionaire population growth, from 2023 to 2028 (forecasted).
It reveals a variety of emerging markets (as well as a few developed economies) where the millionaire population is expected to increase by more than 20% over the next five years.
All figures come from the UBS Global Wealth Report 2024. Note that this analysis covers 56 countries, and is based on the number of U.S. dollar millionaires.
Data and Highlights
The data we used to create this infographic is listed in the table below.
Leading this ranking is Taiwan, which UBS expects will have over one million millionaires by 2028.
While organic growth is expected to account for some of its growth (primarily due to its powerful micro-chip industry), analysts expect the bulk of this increase will come from the immigration of wealthy foreigners.
In second place is Türkiye, with a projected 43% increase in millionaires by 2028. This could be due to various reasons, including the country’s growing tech sector.
According to the World Economic Forum, Turkey hosts six unicorn companies (startups valued at over $1 billion).
These are: Peak Games, Getir, Dream Games, Hepsiburada, Trendyol and Insider (an AI tech company not related to the media company Insider Inc.).
Which Countries Will Lose Millionaires?
While this UBS analysis doesn’t cover the entire world, their report does highlight two countries that will lose millionaires by 2028: The Netherlands (-4%) and the UK (-17%).
Recorded cases of dementia, as well as deaths and prescriptions for the disease, are on the rise across Australia as the nation grapples with the effects of an ageing population.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s Dementia in Australia report, released on Sept. 13, estimates that out of every 1,000 Australians, 15 are suffering from the neurodegenerative disease.
Prescriptions for dementia drugs have increased 46 percent in a decade.
A total of 688,000 dementia medication prescriptions were dispensed to around 72,400 Australians aged 30 and over in 2022–23, compared to 472,000 scripts dispensed in 2013–14.
According to Dementia Australia, more than 100 different diseases can lead to dementia, with the disease commonly associated with Alzheimer’s disease.
While it mainly affects the aged, various forms of dementia can also affect children and younger people, depending on the cause.
Dementia is currently the second leading cause of death in Australia behind heart disease, with reported deaths from dementia rising steadily from 8,500 in 2009 to 17,899 in 2022.
The AIHW says improved reporting systems and greater dementia awareness could influence numbers. Nonetheless, figures for dementia deaths in Australia remain high.
The COVID pandemic has also been a significant factor in dementia deaths, according to the report, with sufferers more likely to suffer a fatal reaction to the virus.
Aged Care Demand
The report’s findings add weight to an already burgeoning aged care system in Australia, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently unveiling a $10 billion (US$6.7 billion) aged care overhaul.
Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in July showed that 17.1 percent of Australians were aged over 65.
The number of Australians older than 85 will triple over the next four decades.
Aged care is one of the biggest pressures on the budget, and without action, spending is expected to more than double as a share of GDP over the next 40 years.
The reforms, announced on Sept. 13, will invest more in-home care support to allow older people to stay home for longer.
The move could benefit aged care facilities by freeing up care for dementia sufferers who often have to move to monitored facilities.
In 2021–22, more than 242,000 people were living in permanent residential aged care, and more than half (54 percent or about 131,000) of these people had dementia.
The reforms, which have bipartisan support from the Liberal-National Coalition, include new standards to drive service quality, new protections for whistleblowers, and a new independent statutory complaints commissioner.
In the glorious age of the Kamala Ascendency, the TSA is no longer restraining its contempt for American travelers. After squeezing millions of butts and boobs and never catching a terrorist, TSA decided to have fun by taunting its victims.
After a traveler asked online, “Why does TSA need social media anyways?” TSA’s Instagram account taunted: “Idk Kyle, why do your friends keep bringing stuff they shouldn’t in their carry-on?”
Almost 40,000 people liked that post (slightly fewer than the total number of TSA employees).
The TSA Instagram team added another smack at travelers who failed to devote their lives to pleasing federal agents: “You see how we don’t have 20 different things shoved in our pockets before airport security? Very cutesy, very demure.” Obviously, any American who does not approach a TSA checkpoint stripped down like a convict entering a prison shower bears all the blame for whatever problems he causes.
TSA officials pirouetted as if they had the moral high ground. But TSA has perennially relied on idiotic seizure statistics in lieu of competently protecting the American public.
A 2003 TSA press release proudly announced that it had “intercepted more than 4.8 million prohibited items at passenger security checkpoints in its first year, contributing to the security of the traveling public and the nation’s 429 commercial airports.” TSA chief James Loy bragged to a congressional committee:
“We have identified, intercepted, and therefore kept off aircraft more than 4.8 million dangerous items.”
Except that TSA is Idiocy Incarnate. Every fingernail clipper that the TSA seized from a hapless grandmother became proof that the federal government is protecting people better than ever. TSA checkpoint seizures included frying pans, dumbbell sets, horseshoes, and toy robots—all of which presumably would have been used to carry out suicidal hijackings. Covert government tests showed TSA screeners were utterly inept at detecting firearms and mock bombs.
I have been snared by TSA’s changing and boneheaded rules for cigar cutters. In 2018, I was flying out of Washington National Airport, heading to a Mises conference. A slack-jawed TSA dweeb came up after my checkpoint screening and he gleefully announced: “Your bag triggered an alarm—we have to search it.”
I followed him to a special area off to the side for bag searches. The dude starts going through my bag, pushing underwear and socks and a lonely necktie aside but finding no Uzis. Then, in one of the bag’s side flaps, this aspiring Sherlock Holmes reached in and plucked out a grave danger to safe aviation.
“You aren’t allowed to take cigar cutters on carry-on,” he announced with the air of an elementary school cafeteria monitor catching a kid who filched an extra donut.
“TSA’s website says explicitly that cutters are allowed on carry-on.” I had done my due diligence pre-flight. This particular cutter was a cheap plastic device with two tiny medal blades that sliced together like a guillotine.
“Uh… no. You aren’t allowed to take this onboard.”
“TSA at other airports has never prohibited cigar cutters.”
“We have strict rules here. It doesn’t matter what the rules are at other airports.”
“What harm could it do?”
“It has a sharp edge.”
“Do you think I’m going to use it to break into the cockpit and circumcise the pilot?”
He just stared and kept breathing through his mouth.
I threw up my arms: “Fine—take it—I have a flight to catch.”
After getting out of sight of that checkpoint, I popped open my carry-on bag and confirmed that the TSA wizard missed my back-up cigar cutter.
No shameless emotional string-pulling would be complete without a canine cameo. On Monday, [8/26], TSA announced the winner of its 2024 Cutest Canine Contest Winner—a dog named Barni who sniffs in the San Francisco airport.
But TSA failed to mention the role that its dogs have in plundering any traveler who is caught with more than $5,000 in cash—the magic threshold for feds considering money “suspicious.” Most American currency has micro-traces of narcotics, and a stack of bills usually suffices for a positive alert from a drug sniffing dog—thus entitling the feds to commandeer the cash. Dan Alban, a savvy Institute for Justice attorney, observed: “This is something that we know is happening all across the United States. We’ve been contacted by people who have been traveling to buy used cars or buy equipment for their business and had their cash seized.”
If TSA wants to set a record for social media likes, it should craft a meme with a Monty Python-style witch drowning to illustrate TSA’s devotion to the Fifth Amendment and private property rights.
But TSA is positively gloating nowadays over its latest high-profile seizure campaign. “Peanut Butter is a liquid. We said what we said,” declared the TSA Twitter account last week, sounding like Moses on Mt. Sinai announcing a supplement to the Ten Commandments. And since TSA claims that peanut butter is a liquid, it can effectively confiscate any jar it sees people have in carry-on luggage. TSA’s Instagram account last week posted a photo of the U.S. Olympic team in the rain on a boat and labeled it, “TSA’s social media team on our way to explain why peanut butter is a liquid.” TSA offered mock heroics in lieu of common sense.
I got snared by that bone-headed rule when I was flying out of Dallas last November. After the x-ray sounded an alert, a beefy young female agent hoisted my bag and carted it to the end of the checkpoint area. She summoned me to explain its contents and my depravity. “Is there anything sharp in this bag?”
“No,” I replied.
She unzipped my bag and began pawing through it. In lieu of a machete, she found a small half-full jar of peanut butter. “You can’t take liquids on a flight,” she announced solemnly.
“It’s peanut butter. It’s not liquid.”
“It’s liquid and it’s prohibited,” was her decree. Did TSA covertly classify peanut butter as a bioweapon, or what?
“Ya, whatever,” I said as I abandoned the jar to federal custody. I’d had worse losses on earlier trips.
Chatting with another jaded traveler as I put my boots back after clearing the Dallas checkpoint, he asked if I was upset about losing my peanut butter.
I smiled: “I’ll settle accounts with TSA later.”
Plenty of irate travelers settled accounts with TSA on Twitter after it posted its pompous decree on peanut butter as a liquid.
@gaborgurbacs replied, “You can demonstrate it by drinking a bottle. Post the video.” @la_smartine retorted, “You meant ‘is a bomb’. You’re welcome.”
@amitylee13 groused, “Your agency has exceeded its expiration date, unlike my peanut butter you stole from me.”
@_GlenGarry tweeted, “Peanut Butter won’t invade your privacy or assault you in public spaces.”
@ErikVoorhees replied, “Thanks for keeping Americans safe from peanut butter.”
@BecketAdams scoffed that TSA was “a permanent DMV for airports staffed by peanut butter-drinking perverts.”
@DrCarolLow warned, “They’ll steal your yogurt as well.”
@NHpilled snarked, “No wonder you guys have failed 90-95% of your b0mb tests.”
Some Twitter users thumped the arbitrariness of the rule—since people can load as much peanut butter as they please onto a sandwich and march unmolested through TSA checkpoints. As @thisone0verhere scoffed, “Peanuts are not [liquid] so I will see you and my new portable food processor on my next flight.”
The latest controversies are a reminder of the deluge of substitute agency names for that TSA acronym—“Too Stupid for Arby’s,” “Tear Suitcase Apart,” “Thousands Standing Around,” “Take Scissors Away,” “Total Sexual Assault,” “They Steal Anything,” “Tactics to Suppress Accountability,” and “Three Stooges Audition.”
If TSA’s social media team wants to be marginally less useless, they should sponsor a contest for better substitute names for TSA.
The Rate Of Depression Among Americans Has Reached A New High
According to survey data, three in ten people in the United States had been clinically diagnosed with depression at a point in their lives in 2023.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck points out in the chart below, this is the highest rate since the question started being asked, up 10.6 percentage points from 2015. The rate of increase was particularly steep in the first year of the pandemic, jumping up from 22.9 percent in 2020 to 28.6 percent in 2021. Meanwhile, 17.8 percent of respondents said that they currently had depression in 2023.
These averages hide figures even more extreme, as Gallup data reveals how rates among women, young adults, as well as Black and Hispanic respondents have risen particularly fast.
According to the survey, 36.7 percent of women report having been diagnosed with depression in their lifetimes versus 20.4 percent of men. For young people aged 18-29, 34.3 percent had been diagnosed with depression, while for 30-44 year olds it was 34.9 percent. Lifetime depression rates among Black and Hispanic adults have now surpassed those of White respondents.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 18.4 percent of U.S. adults reported having been diagnosed with depression at some point in their lives. Again, this figure hides disparities, with the CDC data similarly finding that depression prevalence was higher among women (24 percent) than men (13.3 percent).
