Month: September 2024

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A coalition representing state and local election officials across the United States warned that problems with the nation’s mail system could disrupt voting in some areas, with just weeks to go before the 2024 presidential election.

In a Wednesday letter sent to the U.S. Postal Service’s postmaster, Louis DeJoy, the National Association of State Election Directors and the National Association of Secretaries of State said they have “ongoing concerns” about USPS’s ability to perform ahead of the Nov. 5 contest.

Over the past year, they warned, mailed ballots that were postmarked on time were received by local election offices days after the deadline to be counted. They also noted that properly addressed election mail was being returned to them as undeliverable, a problem that could automatically send voters to inactive status through no fault of their own, potentially creating chaos when those voters show up to cast a ballot.

In that time period, “election officials across the country have raised serious questions about processing facility operations, lost or delayed election mail, and front-line training deficiencies impacting USPS’s ability to deliver election mail in a timely and accurate manner,” the letter stated.

Further, officials have told the two associations that mail sent to voters is being deemed “undeliverable” at higher than normal rates, sometimes in instances where a “voter is known not to have moved.”

“This has affected a range of election mail, including informational mailers about critical election information and voter address confirmation cards, as well as ballots,” the letter said.

Despite the alleged issues, the groups said that repeated attempts to contact the USPS to resolve them did not result in changes, adding that the mail delivery problems result from “a pervasive lack of understanding and enforcement of USPS policies among its employees.”

“We implore you to take immediate and tangible corrective action to address the ongoing performance issues with USPS election mail service,” they said. “Failure to do so will risk limiting voter participation and trust in the election process.”

Responding to their letter, the USPS said that it is equipped to deal with mail-in ballots. But the Postal Service said that voters who wish to submit ballots through the mail should not procrastinate.

“We are ready to deliver. We were successful in 2020 delivering a historic volume of mail in ballots; also in 2022 and will do so again in November 2024,” Adrienne Marshall, director of Election Mail and Government Services, said in a statement.

In December, the Postal Service said in a news release that it has consistently delivered mail and packages to 98 percent of the U.S. population in fewer than three days during peak volume periods.

DeJoy responded to previous criticism of his handling of the USPS in a Washington Post opinion article published in July, also noting that 98 percent of Americans received their mail and packages within three days. However, he noted that the service has suffered in recent times due to what he called “degraded operating conditions.”

“Although we have slipped recently because of difficulties in overcoming our degraded operating conditions while opening new facilities, and remodeling and repositioning existing ones, we will soon be back to a performance level that can make the nation proud,” he said.

The National Association of State Election Directors, described as an organization of state election directors, and the National Association of Secretaries of State, a coalition of all U.S. secretaries of state, have not responded to an Epoch Times request for comment. The Epoch Times contacted USPS for additional comment on Wednesday but received no response by publication time.

During the 2020 election, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, election officials in multiple states expanded vote-by-mail efforts. After the conclusion of that election, former President Donald Trump said that mail-in ballots can lead to election fraud. However, in 2024, he has urged GOP voters to vote by mail, early in-person, or on Election Day itself.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

After a hope-filled rebound in August, analysts expect UMich Sentiment in preliminary August data to show further improvements with inflation expectations flat. They were right in their prediction as the headline sentiment beat expectations (69.0 vs 68.5 exp), as did the current conditions and expectations sub-indices.

Source: Bloomberg

The gain was led by an improvement in buying conditions for durables, driven by more favorable prices as perceived by consumers.

Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets.

However, more notably, medium-term inflation expectations picked up (while short-dated expectations – which largely reflect oil prices – fell to their lowest since Dec 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

…which suggests (on a lagged basis) that 10Y yields are going a lot lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that confidence continued to rise for Democrats, was flat for Independents, and slid further among Republicans…

Source: Bloomberg

Consistent with their divergent views of the implications of a Harris presidency for the economy, partisan gaps in sentiment inched up.

Note that interviews for this release concluded prior to Tuesday’s debate; a more comprehensive look at election expectations will be released next week.

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

Serious glitch in the matrix if it’s real…

Sometime on September 11th I started noticing that there were tweets showing up in my timeline referencing some “Trump Crypto”, called “World Liberty Financial”, but I didn’t recognize any of the handles and didn’t really spend any time on them, mentally dismissing them as pushing one of the countless crypto scams, memecoins or otherwise flakey endeavours that may enjoy a brief “pop” before ultimately flaming out.

The emails from my Bitcoin Capitalist subscribers started rolling in on the 12th, asking me about it. One reader asks:

“Wondering if you will do a special on Trump entering  the fray of Crypto with worldlibertyfinancial[.]com and how this plays out on many different fronts.  Most importantly here in the States why he would do this at this time?  

We would love to know your insight.” 

Indeed. My off-the-cuff response:

Frankly, this has “shitcoin” written all over it and I can’t believe he’s doing this in the run up to the election.

I thought the entire thing was an celeb endorsement scam but it looks like the Trumps are really behind it.

Shaking my head, frankly.

That’s my first take. I’ll dig into it.

I’ve since done so and at first it really boggled my mind that this could possibly be something that is really backed by the Trumps. At first it looked like something his kids are mixed up in (Eric Trump and Don Jr are purportedly listed in a leaked white paper as the project’s “Web3 ambassadors”, and Baron, who is eighteen years old, is their “DeFi Visionary”).

On August 22, @realDonaldTrump and @DonaldTrumpJr Twitter accounts – tweeted a Telegram channel called Defiant1s  announcing the time to take back finance “from the elites”.

Then there is a tweet on August 29 where the @TheRealDonaldTrump account posts a video montage of Trump’s crypto plan for the US,  cribbed from prior speeches, including his keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in July – and that tweet also tags @worldlibertyfi – the “official” account for World Liberty Financial that was created in July.

Then on September 12th, the @realDonaldTrump account tweeted out an announcement of the coming token drop, which is purportedly happening on a Twitter space on September 16th:

The announcement was presented by “Rug Radio”(!) and “World Liberty Financial.

In the world of crypto the phrase “rugged”, “rug pull” and “rugging” has a very particular meaning: it’s the equivalent of a “pump-and-dump” in the stock world, where some garbage penny stock gets promoted and pushed and the insiders, who loaded up beforehand, unload at the top.

In the crypto version, a “rug pull” is when people are lured into some token project, like an ICO, the funds raised ostensibly to be used to carry out the project’s stated mission – but, what happens instead is the project founders either disappear with the funds, leaving the investors with now-worthless tokens – or they just sell the token itself into the hype-cycle, before the inevitable crash.

Even the WLFI tokenomics scream “rug-pull”

We don’t know much about the WLFI tokenomics. Coindesk apparently has a copy of a  “leaked” whitepaper but nobody else has seen it, and Coindesk hasn’t released it, nor have they even replicated any screengrabs or choice excerpts from it – which I’d expect if somebody had a copy of something like that.

The tokenomics behind WLFI – the governance token for World Liberty Financial are a throwback to the 2017 ICO boom, but even more egregious.

According to Coindesk:

“A whopping 70% of Trump-backed World Liberty Financial’s WLFI tokens will be reserved for the project’s insiders…Of the remaining 30% of the tokens distributed via a public sale, the founding team will also receive a portion of the proceeds”

and,

When asked if a 70% allocation to insiders is high, one source who advises projects on such matters replied, “LMAO. Nice joke, ser.”

Apparently the public tokens will also be locked indefinitely, meaning non-transferrable, and thus – it would appear, much harder to actually profit from selling (they could, in theory, earn protocol fees, but we’d have to actually see the white paper to know for sure).

The Coindesk article goes on to break out some of the principles behind World Liberty Financial, including a founder of a DeFi platform that got hacked in July and another that runs a competitor to OnlyFans.

It all just looks so really, obviously bad that I’m having a hard time believing it.

There are two possible scenarios: Shitcoin or Rat-fuck

When I sat down to research and write this piece, the entire angle was “I can’t believe Trump is pulling a shitcoin launch this close to the election”.

The original title was “Tump Backed Crypto Smells Like A Shitcoin”.

The more I started digging into it, the less sense any of this made.

Scenario #1) Trump really is the “Chief Crypto Ambassador” for World Liberty Financial

After winning over much of the Bitcoin space in Nashville just a couple months ago, this is the surest way to alienate them:

Scam pump and dump promoter.

Right before an election.

Insanity.

— FRANCIS – BULLBITCOIN.COM (@francispouliot_) September 12, 2024

Pretty well sums it all up.

Let’s keep something else in mind:

Trump has already been fighting lawfare on all sides, the Dems are trying to block his path to the presidency any way they can – and now – after he just promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one if he wins in November, he’s going to hand the guy the perfect setup to indict him before the election?

The more I worked on this piece, the more something just feels off

Scenario #2) This is some sort of psyop

The more I look at it, the more I think the Trump World Liberty Financial deal is either a psyop or a serious glitch in the matrix.

The announcement is presented by “RUG RADIO” ffs.

Like what the hell? pic.twitter.com/1UkW0g5BIW

— Mark Jeftovic, The ₿itcoin Capitalist (@StuntPope) September 13, 2024

The worldlibertyfinancial[.]com domain was registered in June, and there isn’t much more than that Telegram channel. Nothing wrong with that, per se – but it’s also where 100% of the memecoins and 110% of the shitcoins and 1,000% of the scamcoins are run from.

It was created August 6th and started posting about the Trump DeFi project on August 15:

Donald Trump hasn’t mentioned any of this from his Truth Social account. Neither Donald Jr. nor Eric Trump have mentioned World Liberty Financial by name on Twitter.

In early September Lara Trump and Tiffany Trump also  tweeted about World Liberty Financial, but claimed they were hacked.

As weird as it may seem, those videos posted via @realDonaldTrump  tagging @WorldLibertyFi and together with the one from @DonaldTrumpJr promoting the Telegram channel would fit if those accounts were also compromised (tbh, the one from Sept 12 with Trump announcing the coming livestream could seem like a deepfake, the thumbnail looks photoshopped, who knows these days).

But if that were the case, why aren’t the Trumps or anybody else commenting on it or denying the affiliation or deleting those tweets?

If so many Trump family accounts were hacked, and limited to Twitter and no other social media platforms, one possibility could be a security weakness particular to twitter, or how the members of the Trump family interact with that platform, or perhaps a rogue operator within the company.

But even if this were the case, to what end? Is this just the mother of all shitcoin pumps? Or a more complex rat-fucking psyop to discredit Trump? I can’t believe I just typed that because it sounds like something straight out of the bowels of Qanon.

But Newsweek was quick to jump on the bandwagon, with one of the worst takes I’ve ever seen on how the domain name system actually works…

And Coindesk framed it thusly…

(Release the leaked whitepaper, please).

In their Telegram channel, World Liberty professes that multiple smart contract auditors are reviewing their code, and state the entire project is a fork of Aave, whom they are actively collaborating with.

None of those accounts have ever mentioned World Liberty or acknowledged the WLFI project.

Well @peckshield @fuzzland_ @zokyo_io @BlockSecTeam – can you confirm you’ve audited the code?

Can @aave confirm collaborating with @worldlibertyfi ? pic.twitter.com/HwxkGsykKH

— Mark Jeftovic, The ₿itcoin Capitalist (@StuntPope) September 13, 2024

But something doesn’t add up, and if this is just a pump-and-dump crypto scam and Trump the candidate is involved then it truly is mind-boggling.

I guess we’ll have a better idea come September 16th.

*  *  *

Sign up to the Bombthrower Mailing list today and get a free copy of the aforementioned Crypto Capitalist Manifesto – I’ll also send you my forthcoming e-book The CBDC Survival Guide when it drops this fall.

Follow me on Twitter here, or Nostr: npub1elwpzsul8d9k4tgxqdjuzxp0wa94ysr4zu9xeudrcxe2h3sazqkq5mehan

The European Union’s Operation Aspides naval force announced on X that a “new salvage operation” is set to begin in the coming days to tow the burning oil tanker Sounion in the Red Sea to safety, with hopes of preventing an environmental disaster. 

“On 12 September, the MV SOUNION remains on fire after it was attacked in the Red Sea. The vessel is currently anchored, not drifting and there are no signs of an oil spill from the main cargo hold,” the EU’s naval mission in the Red Sea, Aspides, wrote in a post. 

EU naval force continued, “To prevent an environmental disaster, it is essential that public, private organizations and actors work closely together. This is why EUNAVFOR ASPIDES stands ready to facilitate a new salvage operation in the coming days by providing protection to the commercially chartered ships that will tow the ship to a safe location.” 

EU naval forces shared images of the Greek-registered tanker currently on fire with about a million barrels of crude oil on board. The tanker currently has no power following an Iran-backed Houthi attack last month. 

One source told Reuters that two tugboats owned by a Greek-based salvage company are in the area and awaiting further instructions. 

“There is an action plan in place and there is progress,” another source said, adding, “The towing operation is expected to begin in the next two days.”

Since October, Houthi rebels have launched over 80 attacks on commercial ships in the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea, sinking two ships and killing four sailors.

The chaos has sparked global supply chain snarls for the shipping industry as commercial vessels are rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. 

Even more concerning is the Biden-Harris administration’s failure of ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ to ensure freedom of navigation and maritime security in the critical chokepoint.  

Former Navy Seal and Blackwater founder Erik Prince said this failure shows America’s “credibility and deterrence” has quickly eroded. 

US futures pointed to modest gains after a rally that lifted the Nasdaq 100 more than 5% this week thanks to Nvidia, and the S&P 500 by 3.5%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% led by small-caps which rose 1% as hopes of a jumbo 50bps rate cut jumped overnight; Nasdaq futures were 0.1% higher, with GOOG, META, and NVDA the top performers in megacap land despite a plunge by Adobe on poor guidance. Treasuries yields fell with the 10Y trading at 3.65% and the policy-sensitive 2Y yield down 5bps, while the dollar continues to slide, dropping for a third day, and retreating 0.3% after an article by the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and comments by Nevertrumper Bill Dudley restored speculation that a 50bps rate cut is possible next week. The yen soared to a fresh 2024 high. Commodities are higher. Today, the data focus will be on Michigan Sentiment and inflation expectation. The consensus is at 68.5 vs. 67.9 prior.

In premarket trading, Adobe plunged -8% after the guidance disappointment despite a strong FQ3 upside. Oracle jumped another +6% after its positive ultra long-term revenue guidance. Boeing shares fall as much as 4.4% after the planemaker’s factory workers walked off the job for the first time in 16 years. Here are some other notable movers:

• Halliburton (HAL) shares are down 0.6% in premarket trading after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the energy company to sector perform from outperform.
• Instil Bio (TIL) shares jump 9.2% in premarket trading after Baird increased its price target on the stock to a Street-high of $180 — an increase of 463% from the broker’s last figure.
• Moderna shares (MRNA) fall as much as 4.9% in premarket trading on Friday, set to extend losses for a second session, as at least two brokerages, including JPMorgan and Jefferies, downgrade their ratings on the stock. The downgrades come after the biotech company said it aims to reduce its research and development budget by about 20% over the next three years. The company also lowered its annual revenue guidance for 2025.
• RH (RH) shares soar 20% in premarket trading after the furniture retailer reported second-quarter revenue and profit that topped Wall Street expectations. The company touted an improvement in customer demand in recent months, though it cut its sales forecast for the year, saying revenue will lag demand as it adjusts its assortment.
• Vistra Corp. (VST) shares rise 2.9% in premarket trading after Jefferies called the stock its top pick as it launched coverage of the power sector with a constructive view.

Investors remain divided on the magnitude of the Fed’s anticipated pivot to policy easing starting at next week’s meeting. The debate has continued after data Thursday showed that the US producer price index picked up slightly in August after the previous month’s numbers were revised lower. Meanwhile, an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits renewed concerns about a weakening labor market. Traders are now betting on 33 basis points of cuts from the Fed on Sept. 18 (45% odds of a 50bps rate cut), versus 31 basis points on Thursday and 26 basis points on Wednesday.

“If I were in the room, I would actually be pushing for a 50 basis-point rather than a 25 basis-point cut,” Evercore Chairman Emeritus Ralph Schlosstein said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The balance of risks has shifted from a risk that inflation doesn’t come down as we hope, to a risk that unemployment grows up faster than we would hope.”

His view echoed that of former New York Fed President William Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and adviser, and chair of the Bretton Woods Committee. “I think there’s a strong case for 50,” he said Friday in Singapore. “I know what I’d be pushing for.” 

Thursday’s wholesale inflation data followed the more closely watched consumer price index, which showed underlying inflation accelerated in August. Yet policymakers have made it clear that they’re currently highly focused on softness in the labor market, which is more likely to drive policy discussions in the months ahead.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.4%, FTSE 100 is flat and underperforms. Autos, construction and real estate are the best-performing sectors in Europe.  Danish stocks hit a record for the first since November 2021, paced by gains im DSV A/S after the logistics firm agreed to buy a Deutsche Bahn AG unit for €14.3 billion ($15.9 billion). Here are the most notable European movers:

• Roche shares gain as much as 2.7% after Bank of America upgrades to buy, saying the EPS downgrade cycle is over for the Swiss drugmaker.
• DSV shares gain as much as 4.3% after the Danish logistics firm announced it has signed an agreement to buy 100% of Deutsche Bahn’s DB Schenker unit for €14.3 billion.
• Fresenius shares gain as much as 4% to the highest intraday level since May 2022 after being upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Konecranes shares climb as much as 8.7%, the most in seven weeks, after the Finnish industrial crane manufacturer raised its FY sales outlook, citing “strong delivery execution.”
• Bollore shares rise as much as 7.1% after the holding company of the French tycoon Vincent Bollore announced plans to squeeze out minority shareholders in three holding companies.
• Precious-metals producers advance for a second day in Europe and South Africa as gold rises to a fresh record.
• Travis Perkins shares rise as much as 3%, the most since July, after RBC boosted its price target to a Street-high 1,150p from 950p.
• Worldline shares slump as much as 14% to a record low after cutting full-year guidance for a second time in two months, citing “slow trading conditions” and performance issues.
• AstraZeneca shares drop as much as 2.8%, falling for a fourth straight session, after Deutsche Bank downgrades to sell from hold and sets a Street-low price target.
• Salmar shares fall as much as 2.4% as Berenberg cuts its price target for the Norwegian salmon farmer, expecting falling global prices despite relatively tight demand.
• Kesko shares drop as much as 2.6% after the Finnish home goods and improvements retailer reports its sales figures for August, which DNB Markets views as “mixed.”
• Chemometec shares drop as much as 4.4% after Nordea gives the Danish lab-equipment firm its only sell rating, as it downgrades from hold.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.3%. AUD and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX; JPY and SEK outperform.

In rates, front-end Treasuries outperform global bonds across the curve as traders revive the chance that the Federal Reserve might start its easing cycle with a 50bps interest-rate cut. Two-year yields drop more than 6bps to 3.57%. Treasuries and bunds curves bull steepen, while gilts lag peers with the Bank of England largely expected to keep rates on hold next week.

In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.9% to near $69.61 amid a rebound from record bearish levels. Spot gold rises roughly $12 to trade near $2,570/oz as it climbs to a record high.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for July, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Rehn.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 5,614.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 513.88
• MXAP up 0.5% to 183.11
• MXAPJ up 0.5% to 569.20
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 36,581.76
• Topix down 0.8% to 2,571.14
• Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 17,369.09
• Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,704.09
• Sensex little changed at 82,946.86
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,099.95
• Kospi up 0.1% to 2,575.41
• German 10Y yield down 2 bps at 2.13%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1091
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $72.21/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,566.68
• US Dollar Index down 0.36% to 101.01

Top Overnight News

• Boeing’s largest labor union voted overwhelmingly to go on strike as of Friday, dealing a fresh blow to the company that’s already struggling mightily. WSJ
• China suspended the operations of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for six months and imposed a record penalty over lapses in its auditing of China Evergrande Group. The accounting firm was fined 441 million yuan ($62 million) for its auditing work on Evergrande’s inflated financial reports from 2018 to 2020. BBG
• Xi subtly downshifts China’s focus on achieving its economic growth targets as headwinds mount. SCMP  
• Putin warns he would consider Moscow to be directly at war with NATO if Ukraine is given permission to conduct strikes deep into Russian territory. RTRS
• Worldline shares tumble in European trading on Fri after the company cut its revenue/earnings guidance for 2024 and replaced its CEO (“over the summer, Worldline experienced slow trading conditions coupled with specific performance issues in our Pacific business and on some global online verticals, including travel”). RTRS
• European banks are buying back AT1 bonds at a record pace, with $4.5 billion repurchased this year, as regulatory clarity and strong investor demand embolden lenders. BBG
• Biden close to signing off on allowing Ukraine to launch long-range weapons into Russia (just so long as they aren’t weapons provided by the US). NYT
• William Dudley (former head of the NY Fed) says there’s a “strong case” for a 50bp rate cut at the 9/18 FOMC meeting. BBG
• Former Trump administration officials are working on a plan to privatize Fannie and Freddie and will look to execute it should Trump win in Nov. WSJ  
• Turkey seeks US approval to buy GE aerospace (GE) engines for military jets: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed and initially took their cues from the gains in the US, but with upside capped by a lack of fresh drivers ahead of a long weekend. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in mining stocks with gold miners boosted after the precious metal hit a fresh record high. Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to currency strength and as participants headed towards the extended weekend in Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the former spearheaded the advances in the region with the help of developers, energy stocks and financials, while the mainland was lacklustre ahead of the latest Chinese activity data on Saturday and the four-day weekend closure.

Top Asian News

• China’s top legislative body approves draft proposal to raise retirement age, via Xinhua; China will raise retirement age of men to 63 (prev. 60) and female to 55-58 (prev. 50-55)

Top European News

• German Economy Ministry said economic recovery is only likely to occur towards the end of the year; German export economy not expected to see significant impetus in coming months.
• The Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey: Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 2.7%, down from 2.8% in May 2024. Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.6%, unchanged from 2.6% in May 2024. Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.2%, up from 3.1% in May 2024.

FX

• DXY is trading around the 101.00 mark following a dovish repricing of Fed bets, attributed to an article by Fed-watcher Timiraos, where he noted that it could be a close call between 25 or 50bps, whilst former FOMC Member Dudley said he would push for a 50bps if he was stll on the committee.
• EUR/USD is on the rise after picking itself up from a 1.1005 base yesterday to a current peak at 1.1094, which has subsequently brought a test of 1.11 into view; upside stemming from a scaling back of dovish ECB bets at the October meeting.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD as the dovish repricing for next week’s Fed meeting stands in contrast to a widely-expected hold by the BoE next week. Accordingly, Cable has picked itself up from a 1.3001 low earlier in the week to a current peak of 1.3150.
• JPY is the best performer across the majors as USD/JPY extends its move lower for a fourth consecutive session in what appears to be a Fed vs. BoJ play.
• AUD/USD is currently pausing for breath after gaining on Wednesday and Thursday; some notable Opex activity for the pair is in play today.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1048 (prev. 7.1214).
• Peru Central Bank cut its reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, but stated that the rate cut does not necessarily mean future rate cuts will follow. The pair has now moved as low as 140.64; its lowest level since December 28th 2023.

Fixed Income

• USTs are scaling back yesterday’s losses with upside primarily attributed to an article by Fed-watcher Timiraos, where he noted that it could be a close call between 25 or 50bps. Comments from former FOMC member Dudley that he would be pushing for 50bps if he were on the committee is also a factor. The 10yr yield has slipped as low as 3.623% but is holding above Wednesday’s 3.605% trough.
• Bunds are higher alongside gains in global counterparts and a reversal of Thursday’s price action which saw the curve bear-flatten as odds of an October rate cut were scaled back. German 10yr yield is currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 2.098-169% range.
• Upside in Gilts is more a by-product of price action elsewhere in the fixed income space, given the light UK-docket. The UK 10yr yield is currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 3.744-798% range.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent continue the gains seen in the prior session, with upside facilitated by the broader risk-on sentiment coupled with the shut-ins amid Hurricane Francine (now a post-tropical cyclone). Brent Nov resides in a USD 72.17-52/bbl.
• Precious metals are mostly firmer, with modest gains seen in spot gold and silver whilst spot palladium is subdued, following the prior day’s outperformance. The complex will be mindful of a meeting between US and UK governments, where it will decide on allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit targets in Russian territory. Spot gold trades in a USD 2,566-2,571.12/oz range.
• Mixed trade across base metals and reflective of the tentative tone across the market.
• US Coast Guard said the New Orleans Port condition is normal following waterway assessments, with vessel movement and cargo operations authorised within the COTP New Orleans Zone.
• Macquarie said global oil market faces heavy surplus in 2025. Oil may drop into low USD 50s/bbl, outside base case.

ECB speak

• ECB’s Nagel said expect to reach inflation goal at the end of next year and core inflation is also going in the right direction, according to German radio.
• ECB’s Simkus discussed monetary policy in interview on Radio LRT, while he stated that additional reductions will rely on information and speed of rate cuts will depend on data.
• ECB’s Rehn said the ECB’s rate cuts support growth but Europe should get on the road to better productivity. Current uncertainties further emphasise the dependence on fresh data and analysis about the economy. Council will continue to base monpol on the inflation outlook, the dynamics of core inflation net of energy and food prices and strength of monpol transmission.
• ECB’s Vasle said inflation is to be largely steered by core and services; not committing to a pre-determined path.
• ECB’s Villeroy said that recent activity data has been somewhat disappointing. Should gradually reduce the degree of monetary restriction as appropriate.
• ECB’s Rehn said EZ GDP growth is projected to gradually pick up; disinflation in the EZ is on the right track; downside risks to growth increased over the summer; have full freedom of action and flexibility at all meetings.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Lebanese media reported that rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Safad in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Sirens sounded in the Israeli settlement of Alemon in the West Bank warning of an infiltration of militants, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russian President Putin warned the UK and the US that they will be “at war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, according to The Times.
• US Ambassador to Ukraine strongly condemned Russia’s attack on a vessel carrying grain from Ukraine.
• Russian Deputy Defence Minister said the China-Russia relationship is a model of nation-to-nation collaboration and is a peace guarantee, while their two defence ministries have continuously expanded cooperation and interactions such as drills and exchanges, including more than 100 projects this year. The official added that the US is trying to suppress any technological development centre that is not obedient to it which is double containment and suppression of China and Russia. Furthermore, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister said Russia has unique experience of fighting against various Western weapons and is ready to share it with partners, according to RIA.
• China’s Defence Ministry said major countries must the take lead in safeguarding global security and should never interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. China’s Defence Ministry also stated it is important to uphold fairness, justice, international rule of law, and enhance the authority of the UN, while it added that peace talks and political settlement are the only solutions for the Ukraine crisis and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• North Korean leader Kim oversaw a test-fire for the new 600MM multiple rocket launcher, while he inspected a training base for special operations armed forces and guided combatants drills, as well as inspected the nuclear weapons institute and production base of weapons-grade nuclear materials, according to KCNA. It was later reported that South Korea condemned North Korea’s unveiling of a uranium enrichment facility and said it will never accept North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, according to the Unification Ministry.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Aug. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • Aug. Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • Aug. Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.9%, prior 1.6%
  • Aug. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • Aug. Export Price Index YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
• 10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 68.5, prior 67.9
  • Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 61.6, prior 61.3
  • Sept. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 72.2, prior 72.1
  • Sept. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
  • Sept. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Earlier this week, Jim and I published our latest chartbook, which is called “At the crossroads”. It looks at 5 themes where markets are currently debating the direction of travel. The outcomes will have profound impacts over the quarters and years ahead.

One theme markets are still debating this morning is whether the Fed are going to cut by 25bps or 50bps at their meeting next week. Up until yesterday afternoon, it had looked as though 25bps was increasingly likely, with futures only placing a 15% chance on a 50bp move. But then a couple of articles were published in the Wall Street Journal and the FT suggesting that a 50bp move was still in play, which has led markets to once again re-evaluate their expectations, and futures are now pricing in a 47.5% chance of a 50bp move this morning. So very much in the balance.

The initial driver of this was a story by Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal, which appeared to favour arguments for a 50bp cut next week. In particular, it said that even though it was “all but settled” that the Fed would cut rates this week, “how much is shaping up to be a close call.” So that was something of a surprise to investors, who had been increasingly pricing in 25bps, not least after the core CPI print was a bit stronger than expected on Wednesday. In many respects, this echoes what took place before the June 2022 meeting, when markets had been expecting a 50bp hike going into the Fed’s blackout period, but an article by Timiraos shortly before the decision said they were likely to consider a larger 75bp hike, which led markets to adjust their expectations just before the decision, before they did indeed hike by 75bps. Expectations for a 50bp cut then got further traction yesterday from an FT report, which suggested the Fed “faces a close call” whether to cut by a larger 50bps.

We’ll have to see if market pricing stays at these levels, as there are still several days to go before the decision. But it’s worth noting that if expectations for a 50bp cut remain at 47.5%, that would be the most uncertain market pricing for a Fed decision in this cycle so far. After all, even as policy expectations have shifted about a lot, since the pandemic we’ve always seen the Fed deliver the rates decision that markets were pricing in just beforehand as the most likely. So when markets have moved higher or lower after the Fed’s decisions, the reactions have generally been in response to factors like the dot plot, or comments in the press conference, rather than the rates decision itself, which has been widely expected. So if pricing stays where it is currently, it would be the first meeting in years where there’s serious uncertainty about the rates decision.

In terms of the market reaction, we can already see how investors are pricing in the potential for 50bps again. For instance, the 2yr Treasury yield is down by -5.4bps overnight to 3.58%, and if it stays there it would be its lowest closing level in just over two years. Similarly, the 10yr yield is down -3.0bps overnight to 3.64%. The effects have also been evident globally, and the Japanese Yen has strengthened to 140.81 per US Dollar this morning, on track for its strongest level since July 2023. In the meantime, US equities got a fresh boost from the prospect of a 50bp cut, with the S&P 500 (+0.75%) posting a fourth consecutive advance, which left the index just over 1% beneath its all-time high from a couple of months ago. And futures for the index are up another +0.06% this morning. However, Japanese equities have come under pressure overnight given the yen’s appreciation, with the TOPIX (-0.91%) and the Nikkei (-0.81%) both losing ground. Although in China, the CSI 300 (+0.04%) stabilised after closing at a 5-year low the previous day, and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.11%) has only posted a modest decline.

Before the Fed news came through, the day was going largely according to script, with the US data coming in broadly in line with expectations, whilst the ECB delivered an expected 25bp rate cut. That rate cut took the ECB’s deposit rate down to 3.50%, marking their second cut of this cycle after an initial move in June, and markets continue to anticipate further cuts over the months ahead. We also had their latest forecasts, which showed growth projections a tenth lower each year relative to June, rising from +0.8% this year to +1.3% in 2025 and +1.5% in 2026. Otherwise, the forecasts for headline inflation were unchanged, coming in at +2.2% in 2025 and +1.9% in 2026. But they did upgrade the core CPI forecasts for next year, up by a tenth to +2.3%, before coming down to +2.0% in 2026, as before.

Against that backdrop, European sovereign bond yields moved higher yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.8bps) and OATs (+2.4bps) both picking up. The sell-off was stronger at the front end, with 2yr German yields (+7.3bps) seeing their biggest rise in four weeks amid some dialling back of rate cut expectations over the next several months. While there were few surprises from the ECB meeting, President Lagarde’s tone showed less scepticism on growth and inflation than had emerged in markets, which had moved to price the ECB deposit rate falling to below 2% by next summer. In the press conference, Lagarde kept the ECB’s options open, saying that they would “remain data-dependent”, and that a “declining path is not pre-determined”. And later in the session, a Bloomberg article citing “people familiar with the matter” said that although an October cut was unlikely, downside risks to growth meant they’d rather keep the option open. Our European economists at DB continue to expect the next cut of 25bps in December. While they see risks as skewed towards faster easing, it is not obvious to them that policy rates need to go below neutral. See their full reaction note here.

Elsewhere yesterday, there was some focus on the latest US data, but there really wasn’t much that changed our understanding of the economy. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were broadly in line with expectations at 230k over the week ending September 7 (vs. 226k expected), and the continuing claims covering the previous week were exactly in line with expectations at 1.850m. Otherwise we did get the PPI inflation release, which was a bit stronger than expected at +0.2% for August (vs. +0.1% expected). But the previous month was revised down a tenth at the same time, so again our overall understanding wasn’t too different to before.

For equities, there was a fairly benign backdrop yesterday, and the news about the potential for a 50bp cut helped the S&P 500 advance +0.75%. The index has now risen every day this week, up +3.46% as it stands, so it’s clawed back most of its losses from last week, when it had its worst weekly performance since SVB’s collapse in March 2023. And it’s only just over 1% beneath its all-time high from July again. Tech stocks led the rally, with the Magnificent 7 (+1.40%) also up for a 4th consecutive day, leaving its own gains at +7.06% since the start of the week. But the gains were broad based, and all eleven S&P 500 major sector groups were higher on the day, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.22%. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +0.80%, alongside other indices including the DAX (+1.03%) and the CAC 40 (+0.52%).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for July, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Rehn.

Members of the International Association of Machinists And Aerospace Workers, which represents 33,000 Boeing employees at factories near Seattle and elsewhere, overwhelmingly rejected a ‘historic contract offer‘ with the troubled planemaker and voted to go on strike. 

Unionized Boeing workers have approved a strike. IAM 751 says 33,000+ workers in Washington will stop work at midnight: KUOW

They can use the downtime to learn how to make airplanes that fly

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 13, 2024

IAM said 94.6% of union members rejected the contract offer from Boeing, which called the offer “historic” and highlighted the 25% wage increase over four years as “the largest-ever general wage increase.” About 96% of union members approved the strike, now unfolding at the planemaker’s Seattle factories that make the 737 Max. 

BREAKING: @Boeing machinists vote to STRIKE, effective immediately. This means 32,000 @IAM751 and W24 members are on the picket lines starting TONIGHT. Vote to strike was 96% for it pic.twitter.com/gBUKmkRYOn

— Ryan Simms (@RyanTVnews) September 13, 2024

The union released this statement:

“We are incredibly proud of the hard work and dedication shown by the negotiating teams from District 751 and W24 and the unwavering solidarity of our membership. Their tireless efforts have been on display throughout this entire process. Now, they will regroup and begin planning the next steps on securing an agreement that our membership can approve.

“We will make every resource available for our District 751 and W24 members during this challenging time. IAM members from across North America stand in solidarity with our members in the Pacific Northwest and California. Our goal is to get a strong contract that meets the needs of our members.”

Jon Holden, president of IAM District 751, said this labor action “has been a long time coming, our members spoke loud and clear tonight,” adding, “Clearly there were aspects of this agreement that weren’t good enough.” 

The last time Boeing machinists went on strike was September 7, 2008. At the time, the strike was over job security, outsourcing, pay, and benefits.

Now, as explained by Holden, union workers at Boeing have been plagued with 16 years of stagnated wages. This comes as Bidenomics backfires on the economy, with elevated inflation and high interest rates financially crushing the working poor.

He said, “There’s a lot at stake here for our members, so I am proud of them. And we’re going to get back to the table as quickly as we can.” 

Boeing told Bloomberg it remains “committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”

In premarket trading in New York, Boeing shares are down around 4%. As of Thursday’s close, shares were down nearly 38% on the year. 

“Boeing has been in a financially difficult situation since the January 5 accident exposed deficiencies at its factories and forced the planemaker to reduce production. The company has been bleeding cash as a result, and its credit rating is hovering one step above speculative grade as it contends with a heavy debt load of $45 billion,” Bloomberg noted. 

Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the labor action:

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu (buy, PT $270)

• “The magnitude of the strike’s impact will be dependent on its duration”
• The company was hit by a 58-day strike in 2008 — delaying >100 aircraft deliveries
• “Boeing stated that it was ready to get back to the table and reach a new agreement,” Kahyaoglu writes

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Tim Bacchus

• Boeing’s latest strike, even an extended one, “might have relatively little impact on Asian and Mideast airlines”
• “In Europe, Ryanair is most exposed as it expects eleven 737 MAX 8 deliveries, nine which are unfinished”

Since Boeing is the single largest US exporter, an extended work stoppage at commercial jet factories would result in fewer exports, contributing to lower GDP growth. 

Furthermore, depending on the length of the labor action, it could spark serious issues for nearly 10,000 Boeing suppliers that can be found across the US. 

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

Retailers and manufacturers are seeking to mitigate a potentially multibillion-dollar hit if members of the International Longshoremen’s Association go on strike beginning Oct. 1 at 13 of the nation’s major East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.

The contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, which negotiates on behalf of management of the ports, terminals and shipping lines, is due to expire at midnight on Sept. 30. The contract covers 25,000 workers and ports stretching from Boston to Houston, the ILA said.

Billions of dollars worth of imported goods, from cars and light trucks to electronics to food, clothing, jewelry and agricultural products come into the U.S. through East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.

Members of the National Retail Federation (NRF) have been concerned about the potential for the strike for months, according to Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president of supply chain and customs policy.

“Many have taken steps to mitigate the potential impact by bringing in products earlier and frontloading the peak shipping season or by shifting products back to the West Coast,” Gold wrote Tuesday on the NRF website. “Imports at U.S. ports … have been at or above 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units since April, and September is expected to see 2.31 million TEU — import levels not seen since 2022.”

Gold said a strike also has the potential to disrupt retailers stocking up for the holiday season, as well as manufacturers and farmers relying on raw materials to keep operations moving.

“For retailers, that means holiday shipments might not arrive on time. Manufacturers might not receive parts, materials and supplies needed for production, which will lead to assembly lines shutting down. And farmers won’t be able to get their products to overseas markets, which could lead to lost sales,” Gold said.

Major ports such as Savannah, Georgia, and Houston bring in tons of materials for U.S. manufacturers, such as auto parts, heavy machinery, steel, lumber and other goods. 

Officials with the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) said a prolonged strike could be devastating to the sector.

“Any disruption resulting from the United States Maritime Alliance and the International Longshoremen’s Association negotiations would deal an immediate blow to the manufacturing supply chain,” Christopher Netram, NAM’s managing vice president of policy, recently told CNBC. “A work stoppage at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports would upend logistics for U.S. businesses and hinder the movement of goods upon which millions of Americans depend. Costs will rise and manufacturing jobs will be lost if parts and supplies don’t arrive on time.”

The labor battle has already impacted global logistics providers and transportation operators, said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics.

“The U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports handle billions of dollars in trade monthly and about 43% of all U.S. imports,” Brashier said in ITS Logistics’ U.S. Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index for September. “As we wait for the negotiations to come to a close, industry professionals should keep in mind that we will see a few weeks of elevated demand for inland dray, rail congestion, and other operational issues in September as containers make their way through the North American supply chain.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy revealed on X early Thursday that a Russian missile struck a bulk carrier hauling Ukrainian wheat while sailing through the Black Sea en route to Egypt.

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of the key global food security guarantors. Domestic stability and normal life in dozens of countries around the world are dependent on the normal and unhindered operation of our food expert corridor.

Ukraine’s food deliveries to African and Middle Eastern countries are critical. We will continue to make every effort to safeguard our ports, the Black Sea, and food exports to global markets. This is Ukraine’s true priority—to protect life—and it should be the priority of all countries.

We are waiting for the world to react. Wheat and food security should never be targets for missiles.

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of… pic.twitter.com/nNCqNDVfJV

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 12, 2024

Reuters spoke to an industry source who said the missile hit the gain vessel overnight while traversing Romanian waters near the mouth of the Danube River in the Black Sea. 

Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian navy, stated the vessel was in Ukraine’s grain corridor during the missile strike. 

“Kyiv was forced to set up a new export route in the Black Sea last year after Russia unilaterally terminated the Black Sea grain deal,” The Kyiv Independent noted,” adding, “Initially envisioned as a humanitarian corridor to allow the departure of ships stranded there since the start of the full-scale war, it has since grown into a full-blown trade route.” 

Data from Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry shows that the Eastern European country has exported over 64 metric tons of goods to 46 countries since the temporary Black Sea corridor became operational. Of this total, 43.5 million metric tons were ag goods shipped via commercial vessels through the Black Sea maritime shipping lane over the past year. 

Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe” because it’s one of the top grain exporters in the world. Its main crops include wheat, corn, soybeans, sunflower, barley, and potatoes. 

Global food prices via FAO Food Price Index. 

Any export disruptions could spark round two of food inflation. 

Authored by Ethan Watson via RealClearPolitics,

After yanking Joe Biden off the ticket with a giant vaudeville cane, Kamala Harris has breathed new life into the Democratic party. Kamala opened her campaign with the “politics of joy,” replete with twerking rappers, sassy X clapbacks, and quirky Doritos videos. But, after weeks of pressure from the media, Kamala has finally posted her stance on the issues facing America, and at the debate on Tuesday night, she dove deeper into her policies than ever before. Finally, Gen Z voters have the opportunity to do what everyone least expects from them: weigh each presidential candidate from a policy perspective.

Until now, I’ve been mystified as to why my generation, usually so quick to recognize inauthenticity, was falling for Kamala’s cotton candy campaign. But Gen Z voters were immediately smitten with Kamala, whose light, albeit vapid rhetoric provided a reprieve from the political mudslinging of the last eight years. She threw concerts and posted goofy videos. Instead of engaging in contentious discussions, Kamala supporters could quip “Brat Summer” while retweeting Mark Hamill. It was light and fun, and after years of ugly politics, even her blatant pandering was a nice change.

By spoon-feeding young voters inoffensive content, Harris deflected their attention from her flip-flopping on issues and pushing radical policies like an unrealized capital gains tax. Her proxies dodged questions on air, claiming that she was too busy to sit down for an interview. And most young voters supported Kamala, with 58.7% of voters 18-34 viewing her favorably after the DNC in August.

But Kamala’s actual ideas have been forced into the spotlight. As Harris gets serious, so should Gen Z.

I’ve seen firsthand my generation’s BS detectors in action. We know when we can skip a hokey motivational speaker at a company event or skim the “required” readings. We traverse career fairs, collecting swag and acting interested as phony recruiters try to convince us that their company isn’t a pyramid scheme. In other words, we don’t drink the Kool-Aid.

Now that Harris’ policies are in the open, we should treat her with the same scrutiny. If Gen Z is really dissatisfied with the direction the company is going, per a Spring 2024 Harvard Youth Poll, then perhaps we should consider the fact that portions of her brand new “Issues” page were copied from the Joe Biden campaign site. Remember him? He’s the one who was in charge – or at least who seemed in charge – when that Harvard poll was taken earlier this year. 

Additionally, 53% of Gen Z voters believe that there is a dire crisis happening on our southern border, a border that Kamala presided over as border czar. Do we really believe she’s the best candidate to solve that problem?

Another driving factor behind Gen Z’s discontent with the status quo is the economy. On that topic, Harris echoes Joe Biden’s policies. Harris proposes a $25,000 first-time homebuyer handout, doubling down on Biden’s $10,000 proposal. Harris’ policies also include expanding the Affordable Care Act, which has been the law of the land for the past 14 years (and passed while Joe Biden was Vice President). She touts her plan to raise the tax on long-term capital gains to 28% – in other words, 28% of what Gen Z makes in the stock market will go not to a home down payment but to the government. Do we really think that will help young people prosper?

I call on my generation to apply to Kamala Harris the same utility maximization we do in all areas of life. Now that she’s dropped the TikTok-and-vibes charade, we have the chance to think critically about whether Kamala represents the change to the status quo, or whether she’s just Joe Biden 2.0. It seems Kamala can buckle down to business when pressed. Can we?

Ethan Watson is a Young Voices contributor working towards a Master of Accounting degree at the University of Kansas. He holds dual undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Political Science with an eye toward law school in the near future. Follow him on X: @erwatson13.

Gold prices per ounce surpassed $2,500 USD for the first time ever in August 2024, setting a new all-time high.

The surge in gold value this year has largely been driven by increased central bank demand amidst an increasingly complicated geopolitical and financial landscape. A World Gold Council survey conducted in April 2024 found that 29% of central bank respondents intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the gold price per troy ounce in USD from 1989 to August 29, 2024, with the change in price labeled for each U.S. president’s term.

The figures come from the World Gold Council, who compile price data from ICE Benchmark Administration and the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Gold Prices Surged During Recent Presidencies

Below, we show the price change in gold per troy ounce in USD between the start and end of each U.S. president’s term.

*For President Biden, the date of August 29th, 2024 was used for the ending gold price in calculations.

Gold has historically been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability. While gold’s prices increased by over 50% under Trump’s presidency, and by another 37% during Biden’s, the greatest increase of 215% (since 1989) came during George W. Bush’s presidency.

Spurred by the 9/11 attacks and the geopolitical instability which followed, gold’s bull run during Bush’s presidency from 2001 to 2009 could’ve been even greater had the 2008 global financial crisis not occurred. Instead, fear of deflation and a flight to the safety of the U.S. dollar resulted in a 30% dip from the peak to trough of gold prices in 2008.

Events like 9/11, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine-Russia war have all contributed to significant increases in gold prices, as investors seek stability during turbulent times​.

Whether Donald Trump is reelected or Kamala Harris becomes the first female president of the U.S., Citigroup analysts forecast gold prices exceeding $3,000 by the end of 2024.

To learn more about gold’s recent performance on the markets, check out this graphic that shows the value of a gold bar in various sizes as of August 2024.