Month: September 2024

Billionaire Jared Isaacman and SpaceX employee Sarah Gillis are minutes away from attempting the first-ever commercial spacewalk from their Crew Dragon spacecraft. 

Watch Dragon’s first spacewalk with the @PolarisProgram’s Polaris Dawn crew https://t.co/svdJRkGN7K

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 12, 2024

On Wednesday, the Polaris Dawn crew of four civilian space astronauts unlocked a major milestone…

Polaris Dawn and Dragon at 1,400 km above Earth – the farthest humans have traveled since the Apollo program over 50 years ago pic.twitter.com/rRDeD1dY1e

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 11, 2024

Here’s the latest space mission update from Polaris Dawn on X:

The Polaris Dawn crew completed their first day on-orbit, also known as Flight Day 1. After a successful launch by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 5:23 a.m. ET, the crew took off their spacesuits and began their multi-day mission.

Shortly after liftoff, the crew began a two-day pre-breathe protocol in preparation for their anticipated spacewalk on Thursday, September 12 (Flight Day 3). During this time, Dragon’s pressure slowly lowers while oxygen levels inside the cabin increase, helping purge nitrogen from the crew’s bloodstreams. This will help lower the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) during all spacewalk operations.

About two hours into Flight Day 1, the crew enjoyed their first on-orbit meals before engaging in the mission’s first science and research block and testing Starlink, which lasted about 3.5 hours.

About two hours into Flight Dragon made its first pass through the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), a region where Earth’s magnetic field is weaker, allowing more high-energy particles from space to penetrate closer to Earth. Mission control operators and the crew worked closely to monitor and respond to the vehicle’s systems across all high-apogee phases of flight, particularly through the SAA region.ay 1, the crew enjoyed their first on-orbit meals before engaging in the mission’s first science and research block and testing Starlink, which lasted about 3.5 hours.

Mid-day, the crew settled in for their first sleep period in space, during which Dragon will perform its first apogee raising burn. Orbiting Earth higher than any humans in over 50 years, the crew will rest for about eight hours ahead of a busy day on Flight Day 2.

Most excitingly, during its first orbit, Dragon reached an apogee of approximately 1,216 kilometers, making Polaris Dawn the highest Dragon mission flown to date. Following a healthy systems checkout, the crew and mission control will monitor the spacecraft ahead of the vehicle raising itself to an elliptical orbit of 190 x 1,400 kilometers at the start of Flight Day 2.

Polaris Dawn Flight Day 1 Update

The Polaris Dawn crew completed their first day on-orbit, also known as Flight Day 1. After a successful launch by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket to low-Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida at 5:23 a.m. ET, the… pic.twitter.com/pcmEF5k2S3

— Polaris (@PolarisProgram) September 10, 2024

*Developing…  

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

How To Hedge Anti-Heroes?

How does one hedge against open stupidity?

Left, right or center, our policy makers – from parliaments and executive branches to central banks and think tanks – have taken the world closer to war, immigration disasters, infrastructure failures, credit traps, wealth inequality, social unrest and currency destruction than any other time in recent memory.

Like myself, many are asking, privately or publicly: How did we get to this historical economic, social and political inflection point?

Perhaps the answer lies, at least in part, from trusting false idols, false slogans and even false notions of success.

The Philosophy of Success

Aristotle included aspects of the heroic in his definition of Success; one was “successful” who made it a priority to serve something larger than one’s self.

But between Paris, Virginia and Paris, France, I’ve often discovered that many who make political power or dollars an end in itself have missed the bullseye of thinking beyond their own interests…

My grandfather was a pilot in the Second World War. Never, not even once, did he speak of aerial combat or brag of a kill.

By the end of the Battle of Britain, hundreds of RAF pilots had perished, but England remained free. As Winston Churchill famously remarked when referring to these pilots:

“Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.”

But when I consider the embarrassing, DC/Wall Street history of self-interest at the expense of public interest, many of our modern “success stories” boil down to this:

“Never in the field of human vanity was so little owed by so few, to so many.”

Today’s Mis-Understanding of “Success”

As recent whiz-kids from Mark Zuckerberg and Adam Neuman to Sam Bankman Fried, or ARC to Theranos remind, so many of our former “heroes” are anything but heroic.

Like Wall Street, DC has even less heroes to admire. The historical evidence of this is worth a brief reminder.

Wilson

Unlike Thomas Jefferson, who would have fought to the death to prevent a private central bank from taking over our economy and “coin,” Woodrow Wilson let a private bank raid our nation’s economic destiny in exchange for his own political self-interest when signing the Fed into law in 1913.

Andrew Jackson previously described the very notion of such a private central bank as the “prostitution of our government for the advancement of the few at the expense of the many.”

The unprecedented wealth inequality that exists today in America is proof that Jackson was right.

FDR

It was not a local bank run that caused the markets to tank in 1929; rather it was the now all-too-familiar low-interest rate policy/pattern and debt orgy of the prior and roaring 20’s that caused markets to grow too hot – a theme repeated to this day in market bust, after market bust–from 1929 to 1987, 2000 to 2008 or 2020 to the next disaster looming off our bow.

FDR helped create a subsequent template whereby America solves old debt problems, by well…taking on more debt paid for with debased money.

By removing the dollar from the gold exchange, FDR, like other anti-heroic actors to come, focused on manipulating the US currency rather than addressing US productivity—the veritable “P” in GDP.

FDR’s macro policies interfered with the hard but informative lesson of free markets, namely: Deep recession always follows deep debt. There’s just no such thing as a free ride…

Policy makers, however, like to sell free-rides to get or stay elected.

As I recently argued with math rather than emotion, the net result has been the death of democracy, which has piggy-backed off an equally empirical death of capitalism.

Nixon

In 1971, Nixon was staring down the barrel of an economy on the brink of bad news.

The gold standard, revived by the Post World War II Bretton Woods Accord (and the heroic fiscal restraints of Eisenhower and Martin) meant the dollar was once again tied to a restraining asset upon which global markets and trade partners relied.

But in a move similar to FDR in the 30’s, Nixon jettisoned the gold standard and once again welched on US dollar holders and currency-honest trade partners overseas in order to retain power for himself via unlimited dollar liquidity.

He promised the USD would remain as strong as ever. He lied. It has lost 98% of its purchasing power vs. gold since 1971.

Gold, however, is far more honest in its actions than politicians are with words:

In short, and as always, the currency was sacrificed to “save” a broke system and buy political time.

He won by a landslide.

Nixon’s policies strengthened the template for a now trend-setting perversion of free market price discovery via a familiar pattern of:

1) removing the dollar from a gold standard,

2) lowering rates to encourage short-term speculation which

3) ends in unnaturally large market bubbles and corrections.

Look familiar?

The Greenspan Monster

The spark which set off the crash of 87′ was the ironic fear/rumor that the new Fed Sheriff in town (Alan Greenspan) might put an end to the Wall Street binge party by raising rates in a “Volcker-like” scenario.

And so, in a single day, the stock index suddenly dropped 23% – double the 13% declines on the worst day of the 29 Crash.

But even more astounding than this Black Monday was the Lazarus-like resurrection of the market recovery on the White Tuesday to follow. By 12:30 PM the next day, the market saw massive buy orders which, in a miraculous swoop, stopped the panic.

The Greenspan Fed was clearly no “Volcker 2.0” (or Bill Martin either), but instead, this patient-zero of the current bubble cycle came to the rescue of wayward markets and an over-valued Wall Street.

That is, rather than allow painful corrections (i.e. natural market hangovers or what the Austrians call “constructive destruction”) to teach investors a lesson about derivatives, leverage and other land mines dotting the S&P futures pits (which dropped by 29% in a single day), the Fed came in with buckets of cheap money and thus destroyed any chance for the cleansing, tough-love of naturally correcting markets.

Modern Wall Street – Almost Nothing but Anti-Heroes

Self-seeking, career-preserving policy makers who create environments where the dollar is unrestrained, credit is cheap and regulation is lax (or favors “creativity”) stay popular, get rich and keep their jobs.

The mantra everyone knows in Wall Street is simple: “Bears get fired and bulls get hired,”

Such thinking has set a stage where clever market players are free to scheme their ways into ever-increasing bubbles which enrich insider whales and crush the middle-class/retail plankton.

The Exchange Pits and the Modern Derivatives Cancer

Irrational credit expansion creates a cancer to form in every asset class, including within the once humble mercantile exchange.

It was in this former cob-web-modest Chicago-based exchange where another anti-hero, Leo Melamed, applied the notion of using futures contracts (originally and modestly created to help humble farmers and suppliers adjust for price volatility) to global currencies.

Shortly thereafter, Melamed, having conferred with well-paid “advisors” like Greenspan and other easy-money, self-interested minds (including Milton Friedman), got the green light to open currencies to an entirely new level of speculative alchemy via addictive leverage.

Four decades later, the volume of currency (and risk) traded in 1 hour on the bankers-only commodities exchange exceeded the annual volume of funds traded on the original, farmers-only MERC.

Now, like all post-71 markets, the exchange pits have morphed into a casino with an astonishing 50,000X growth based on derivative time bombs that set up 100:1 ratios of hedging volume to the underlying activity rate.

These “modern derivative pits” (now surpassing the quadrillion levels in notional risk) are nothing more than levered and cancerous hot potatoes whose degree of risk and intentional confusion will be a party to the next liquidity crisis.

In short, this is not our grandfather’s MERC…

Long-Term Capital Management

In yet another example of the non-heroic, we saw the 1998 collapse of LTCM—aka, Long Term Capital Management —a hedge fund leveraging over $125B at the height of its drunken splendor.

This Greenwich, CT-based creation of the not-so-heroic John Meriwether, with a staff of the best and brightest Wall Street algorithm writers and Nobel Laureate advisors, stands out as a telling reminder of three repeated observations regarding Wall Street:

1) The smart guys really aren’t that smart,

2) wherever there is exaggerated leverage, a day of reckoning awaits, and

3) the Fed will once again come to the aid of Wall Street (its real shadow mandate) whenever its misbehaving “elites” get caught in yet another market DUI—that is trading under the influence of easy credit and hence easy leverage.

Of course, the pattern (and lesson) after LTCM was not headed, it simply continued…

The Dot.Com Anti-Heroes…

Just as the smoke was rising from the Connecticut rubble of LTCM, another classic asset bubble misconstrued as free-market prosperity was playing itself out in the form of a dot.com tech hysteria. 

In retrospect, the dot.com implosion seems obvious. But even at the time it was happening, that market (precisely like today’s) felt, well: Immortal, meme-driven and surreal.

Consider Dell Inc. It started at $0.05 per share and grew to $54.00/share (a 1,100X multiple), only to slide back to 10.00/share.

Today, similar unicorns abound and the magnificent 7, which comprise 30% of the S&P’s market cap (while violating every principal of the anti-trust laws I studied in law school) continue to act as sirens seducing FOMO sailors to the fatal rocks.

The dot.com champagne party of the 1990’s, like its predecessor in the dapper 1920’s, ended in ruins, with the S&P down 45% and the wild-child NASDAQ off its prior highs by 80% in 2003.

Today’s tech, real estate and bond bubbles, by the way, will be no different in their eventual fall from grace…

Playing with Rates Rather than Reality

In the rubble of the dot.com bubble, the market-enamored policy makers at the Fed began the greatest rate reduction yet seen, resulting in a wide-open spigot for more easy credit, leverage and hence debt-induced market deformations.

That is, they solved one tech bubble crisis by creating a new real estate bubble.

A wide and embarrassing swath of wasteful M&A, stock-by-backs and LBO deals also took place.

Highlights of this low point in “American deal making” include GE’s dive from $50 to $10 share prices. Net result? Did GE’s Mr. Jeffrey Immelt take his lumps heroically? Did the company learn the necessary lessons of reckless speculation in the fall from its 40X valuation peaks?

No. Instead, GE’s CEO took a bailout…

Larry Summers

And then there’s the endless Larry Summers, the veritable patient-zero of the derivatives cancer…

Larry Summers was the president of Harvard. He worked for Clinton; served as a Treasury Secretary. He made lots of opinionated (and well paid) speaking appearances. Even Ray Dalio hangs with him.

But let’s not let credentials get in the way of facts. As La Rouchefoucauld noted centuries ago, the highest offices are not always – or even often – held by the highest minds.

Opinions, of course, differ, but it’s hard not to list Larry Summers among the key architects behind the 2008 financial debacle “Where Larry Summers Went Wrong.“

Most veterans of recent market cycles pre and post 08, concede that OTC derivatives were the heart of the 2008 darkness.

Bullied Hero

During this period, Brooksley Born, then head of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)- openly warned of the derivative dangers of, well…derivatives.

But in 1998, then Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers telephoned her desk and openly bullied her: “I have 13 bankers in my office,” he shouted, “who tell me you’re going to cause the worst financial crisis since World War II” if she continued moving forward in bringing much needed transparency and reporting requirements to the OTC market.

Larry then went on to attack Born publicly, condescendingly assuring Congress that her concerns about the potential unwieldiness of these instruments were exaggerated. As he promised:

“The parties to these kind of contracts are largely sophisticated financial institutions that would appear to be eminently capable of protecting themselves from fraud and counter-party insolvencies.”

But fast-forward less than a decade later (and an OTC derivatives market which Summers helped take from $95 Trillion to $670 Trillion), and we all learned how those “eminently capable” and “largely sophisticated financial institutions” (Bear, Lehman, Goldman, AIG et al…) created the worst financial crisis (and bailout) since World War II.

More Bad Ideas, More Anti-Heroes

It’s worth remembering that neither Greenspan in 01 nor Bernanke in 08 ever saw these market crashes coming. Of course, neither did any of the “heroes” running the private banks or the US Treasury.

Powell will be no different. The Fed’s record for calling a recession or market implosion in 0 in 10.

Revisiting “Success”

A man, Walt Whitman reminds, is many things. Most would agree that we are philosophically, economically, morally and historically designed to screw up – over and over again.

What is less forgivable is not a lack of perfection, but rather a lack of accountability, even humility.

We can’t all be brave RAF pilots.

But sometimes, just being honest is heroic enough.

Unfortunately, the anti-heroes touched upon above, and the countless other Wall Street “supermen” (whose executive to worker salary ratios are at 333:1) do not represent anything close to serving a cause greater than one’s own income or position.

Anti-heroes like those above help explain the graph below and the new Feudalism that has replaced American capitalism:

More Candor—Less Anti-Heroes

We stand today at the edge of a market, social and political cliff built upon unprecedented levels of post-08 debt and money supply expansion.

The current public debt of $35T and a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 125-30% is mathematically unsustainable and makes real (rather than debt-driven) growth objectively impossible.   

Today, we and our children’s generation are the inheritors of the sins of such anti-heroes.

If easy money leads to market bubbles, drunk investing and sobering crashes, then we can all see what’s coming as Powell inches predictably from rate hikes, to a rate pause to rate cuts.

Next, will come a deflationary recession and/or market correction followed by Super QE to absorb Uncle Sam’s unwanted IOUs, $20 trillion of which are projected in the next 10 years by our Congressional Budget Office.

The anti-heroes, of course, won’t say this, and they certainly won’t take accountability.

Instead, they will lie – blaming the troubles now and to come on Putin, COVID, global warming and their opposing party.

Gold, however, will be more honest. Gold is not a debate against paper or crypto money, but a voice of yesterday, today and tomorrow.

When money is expanded by 5X in just 20 years, it dilutes its value…

…which explains why gold, even at all-time-highs, is still under-valued when measured against the broad money supply:

As in every liquidity, market and political crisis throughout history, gold will store value far better than any debased currency engineered to inflate away national debt disasters with debased money.

This explains gold’s deliberately ignored tier-one asset status, its greater favor (and performance) over USTs and USDs and its historically-confirmed answer to every currency crisis since time was recorded.

It also explains why none of our Anti-heroes – from DC to Brussels – will talk about gold out loud. They are literally allergic to blunt truth, historical lessons or simple math.

For an informed minority, however, sophisticated investors will forever hedge against the golden tongues of anti-heroes with the golden bars of time and nature.

Tensions remain high in Venezuela following a disputed presidential election on July 28.

According to Human Rights Watch, at least 24 people have been killed, including protesters and bystanders, as well as a member of the Bolivarian National Guard. The post-election turmoil hits hard in a country already suffering from a weak economy.

In recent years, Venezuela has faced runaway inflation, political upheavals and falling oil prices, creating an extremely difficult environment for businesses and workers. The Venezuelan economy has suffered a prolonged collapse, with triple-digit inflation and massive migration in search of better prospects.

“Venezuela has experienced a recession unprecedented for a Latin American country or globally for a country without war. The economic contraction between 2014 and 2021 exceeded 70 percent and reached its lowest point,” says Asdrúbal Oliveros, director of the consulting firm Ecoanalítica, in an interview with CNN.

The country has emerged from the hyperinflation period it experienced between 2018 and the end of 2019; however, as Statistas Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, it is still premature to consider it restored from the losses accumulated in the last decade. 

You will find more infographics at Statista

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices is slowly recovering, with an estimated value of US$102.3 billion in 2024, but remains a fraction of pre-crisis levels.

The national public debt has risen to US$4.2 trillion in 2023, further exacerbating the economic situation. Although the unemployment rate is relatively low at 5.5 percent, this figure does not fully reflect the underemployment and informal work faced by many Venezuelans.

While Venezuelan inflation is no longer the highest in Latin America, with Argentina exceeding 200 percent, it remained above 50 percent in June 2024. This economic instability continues to affect Venezuelans’ standard of living. The minimum wage has remained frozen at 130 bolivars since March 2022, but its value has been devalued to approximately $3.50. However, in May 2024, President Nicolás Maduro announced an increase in state bonuses for the public sector, which include the minimum wage, a $40 food bonus and an “Economic War Bonus” that will increase from $60 to $90.

The deterioration of finances in recent years is evident too in everyday life, with over 80 percent of the population living in poverty and 53 percent facing extreme poverty.

Authored by Huey Freeman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new study found for the first time that common skin care products used by young children may increase their exposure to hormone-disrupting chemicals.

The results may help guide parents to limit their children’s exposure to toxins that could harm their development, Michael Bloom, study leader and professor at George Mason University’s College of Public Health, told The Epoch Times.

“We found associations between recent use of different skin care products and higher concentrations of phthalate and phthalate-replacement compounds,” Bloom said in a press release.

Phthalates, often found in skincare products, can disrupt the endocrine system, potentially interfering with hormones. These chemicals may be added to skincare products to improve absorption, prolong fragrances, or make the product more lubricating.

“Phthalates are endocrine-disrupting chemicals, and children’s exposure has been associated with differences in body composition, neurodevelopment, and pulmonary and immune function,” the researchers wrote in the study.

“While the evidence is not definitive at present, the potential hazardous human health effects … demands a precautionary approach,” said Bloom, who has worked on several other studies involving phthalates and other potential health hazards.

Phthalate-replacement compounds are chemicals used instead of phthalates. Replacements can also be toxic.

Potential Risks Demand Precautions

Researchers from George Mason University collected data from 630 children, aged 4 to 8, across 10 different clinical sites in the United States. Each child underwent a physical examination, including a urinalysis to detect phthalate byproducts left in the body.

As part of the clinical study, parents were asked to list skin care products that had been applied in the 24 hours before the examination. These products included soaps, lotions, shampoos, cosmetics, and sunscreen. The researchers noted frequent use of skin care products among participants during this period, with most children using at least one type of soap and lotion.

The researchers also surveyed the parents about their children’s racial and ethnic backgrounds. Black participants had the highest rate of phthalates in their urine, possibly because of their choice of products and frequency of use.

“Consumers can check product labels to identify potentially harmful ingredients in skin care products and refer to websites that provide detailed information about commercially-available skin care products,” Bloom said.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration requires manufacturers to declare their ingredients through a label. So consumers can tell whether some products contain phthalates by reading the ingredient declaration for ingredients that contain the word “phthalate.”

Common phthalates added to personal products in diethyl phthalate (DEP) and monoethyl phthalate (MEP).

However, the regulations do not require the listing of the individual fragrance or flavor, or their specific ingredients. As a result, a consumer may not be able to determine from the ingredient declaration on the label if phthalates are present in a fragrance or a flavor used in the product. Thus, some groups advise people to avoid scents and flavors.

Phthalates can also migrate from plastic packaging into products, Bloom said, suggesting that policy changes may be needed to limit children’s exposure.

The study, published Wednesday in Environmental Health Perspectives journal, was funded by the U.S. National Institute of Health (NIH) Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes study.

Toxic or Not? The Ongoing Debate

Although this study did not directly investigate the health risks, Bloom said other experimental studies using animal models and cell cultures have shown phthalates can affect hormone function, cause inflammation, and induce oxidative stress. These biological pathways, shared by humans, that might lead to adverse health effects in humans.

“These studies were often conducted at very high doses of phthalates, greater than those typically experienced by human populations,” Bloom said. “Still many observational studies in human populations worldwide have reported associations between exposure to some phthalates and neurocognitive problems, reproductive problems, changes in hormones, metabolic disease, and other adverse health effects, suggesting that there are toxic effects,” he added.

The results in human studies have been mixed, which makes the toxicity of these chemicals a controversial subject. Due to ethical concerns “it’s difficult to study phthalate exposure in people, especially in children,” Bloom said.

A Growing Health Concern

Previous studies have suggested widespread use of phthalates may harm human health.

A 2020 Columbia study identified that some phthalates can harm attention span in children and was linked to neurological harms.

A 2024 French study linked phthalate exposure in pregnant women to decreased placenta weight and decreased placenta to infant ratio, both of which are negative health outcomes.

The current study’s results may inform policymakers, doctors, and parents to “help limit children’s exposure to developmental toxicant,” authors of the current study wrote.

While some people think Turkey is an ally to Russia, the reality is that this “friendship” is more often shaky and could perhaps even be seen as a facade ready to collapse at any moment.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday reminded the world that his country firmly reflects NATO’s view of the Ukraine war. He said in video message to 4th Crimea Platform happening in Kiev, a Ukrainian government sponsored event, that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is “a requirement of international law.”

“Our support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence is unwavering. The return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law,” Erdogan declared, while also stressing ongoing support for Crimean Tatar rights.

He said of the minority ethnic group commonly viewed as Turkish: “I believe that additional steps will continue to be taken to strengthen the rights of the Crimean Tatar Turks in the upcoming period.”

Turkey has long denounced not only historic persecution of the Tatars at the hands of Russians which reaches back to the 18th-19th centuries, but also the alleged persecution following Russia’s 2014 takeover of the peninsula. Erdogan stressed before the conference that Tatars must be able to live “freely, securely, and peacefully in their own homeland.”

Erdoğan added of the broader conflict, “Our sincere wish is for the war to end with a fair and lasting peace based on Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.”

The Kremlin was quick to respond, saying the following within hours after Erdogan’s speech:

“Subjects of the Russian Federation are not subject to negotiation,” Zakharova told reporters who asked about Erdogan’s remarks during the press briefing at the Foreign Ministry, adding that anyone who wants to address the issue needs to read the Russian constitution first. 

Residents of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol voted overwhelmingly to rejoin Russia in March 2014, shortly after a US-backed coup in Kiev overthrew the Ukrainian government in favor of militant nationalists. Neither Ukraine nor its Western backers have ever accepted the results of the referendum, declaring it to be an illegal “annexation.”

This isn’t the first time that the Turkish leader has expressed such a firm position, which has not made Russia happy. Turkey has also since near the start of the conflict supplied Ukraine forces with armed drones.

Turkey was central along with UN negotiators in securing the 2022-2023 Black Sea Grain Initiative, and has been a rare open line of communication to the Kremlin within NATO. It has also positioned itself as a potential future mediator of peace.

But Erdogan’s Crimea stance is yet another reminder that Turkey in the end is still a powerful NATO member, and with a Washington relationship that’s more impactful for Ankara than its ties with Moscow.

* * *

Meanwhile, using Erdogan should be more consistent…

Cyprus must return to Cyprus

Our support for Cyprus’ territorial integrity is unwavering & all of Cyprus shall return to Cyprus as mandated by intl law.

Oops https://t.co/Qwfe6bywRi

— Fr. Michael Lillie (@FrLillie) September 11, 2024

By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

For the first time in EU history, Germany is at the forefront of immigration suspension. Other EU countries will follow.

Image notes, I created the image using Grok, then modified the image in Photoshop to add German text, hopefully contextually accurate.

Schengen Zone

The Schengen Area (English: /ˈʃɛŋən/ SHENG-ən, Luxembourgish: [ˈʃæŋən]) is an area encompassing 29 European countries that have officially abolished border controls at their mutual borders.

Immigration Crackdown

Reuters reports Germany Tightens Controls at All Borders in Immigration Crackdown.

Germany’s government announced plans to impose tighter controls at all of the country’s land borders in what it called an attempt to tackle irregular migration and protect the public from threats such as Islamist extremism.
The controls within what is normally a wide area of free movement – the European Schengen zone – will start on Sept. 16 and initially last for six months, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said on Monday.

The government has also designed a scheme enabling authorities to reject more migrants directly at German borders, Faeser said, without adding details on the controversial and legally fraught move.

The restrictions are part of a series of measures Germany has taken to toughen its stance on irregular migration in recent years following a surge in arrivals, in particular people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East.

Recent deadly knife attacks in which the suspects were asylum seekers have stoked concerns over immigration. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a knife attack in the western city of Solingen that killed three people in August.

Polls show it is also voters’ top concern in the state of Brandenburg, which is set to hold elections in two weeks.

Scholz and Faeser’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are fighting to retain control of the government there, in a vote billed as a test of strength of the SPD ahead of next year’s federal election.

“The intention of the government seems to be to show symbolically to Germans and potential migrants that the latter are no longer wanted here,” said Marcus Engler at the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research.

“We Can Do This”

Does anyone recall Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comment on immigration? For discussion, please see my September 5, 2016 post Merkel humiliated in 3rd Place Finish to AfD in State Elections; Irony of the Day

Her highness, chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a humiliating loss in German state elections on Sunday.

Merkel came in third place, to the anti-immigration, eurosceptic AfD party in her own home state in statewide elections.

Peak Merkel

Also recall my June 15, 2018 post Merkel Coalition About to Collapse Over Immigration: Peak Merkel Revisited

Horst Seehofer, Germany’s Interior Minister, threatens to start the automatic rejection of refugees by executive order – which would be the end of the coalition.

The government crisis was triggered by two unrelated events – the murder of a young girl by an immigrant, and a scandal about the granting of refugee status to illegal immigrants.

No Longer Wanted

We have gone from “We Can Do This” to “No Longer Wanted”

From Eurointelligence …

It is almost comical that as Mario Draghi presents his report on the future of Europe, Germany has the brilliant idea to re-impose border controls and suspend the Schengen system of passport-free travel. The German government has come under pressure to crack down on immigration by trying to stop refugees at the border. Nancy Faeser, the interior minister, said the reason was to protect Germany against Islamic extremism, following a series of murders and attempted murders committed by immigrants in the last few weeks. The Schengen rules require an over-riding national security interest.

The collateral damage will be huge. Austria already said it will not take in any immigrants rejected by Germany. So Austria will almost surely do the same and close its border. Nobody to the east and south-east of Germany has the physical capacity and political willingness to absorb immigrants. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia will all do the same. We assume that Switzerland, not a member of the EU but a member of Schengen, will follow. Italy has no border to close, but France does. Germany has now become an active participant in the beggar-thy-neighbour refugee policies of EU member states. Except that when Germany plays this game, it has much more serious consequences. This is a serious threat to the whole idea of Schengen. This is where the unravelling of Europe could be starting.

Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister, warned her colleagues not to endanger the EU’s migration deal, and not to succumb to the illusion that European countries can solve the refugee problem at a national level.

The border closures do not come with a change in current laws. The German border guards will have to take in anybody who mentions the word asylum. But a majority of immigrants do not. FAZ notes that Friedrich Merz wants to go much beyond the current rule. He wants the police to be able to even reject people who claim asylum. The argument he uses is that Germany’s borders only with safe countries, so it is technically impossible for anyone to claim asylum at a German land border. He also maintains that law and order within Germany have a higher priority than Germany’s obligations under international law.

Friedrich Merz is leader of the CDU and leader of the opposition to the current Traffic Light Coalition: Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, (red, yellow, green) respectively.

No Change in Current Laws

Schengen is enshrined in treaty. No country will propose any changes.

Instead, every county will ignore the treaty on grounds of a “higher law”.

Higher Laws

Given there are now higher laws than the EU treaties, I have a question:

When does France or Italy say the same thing about budget rules? Such logic could finally spell the end of EU and Eurozone Monetary Union (EMU) rules.

Meanwhile, back in the states ….

More Americans Call Volume of Immigrants a ‘Critical Threat’

The Washington Post reports More Americans Call Volume of Immigrants a ‘Critical Threat’

Americans’ concerns about immigration have risen sharply this year, with half of Americans saying that the large number of immigrants and refugees entering the country is a “critical threat” to U.S. interests, up from 42 percent last fall to the highest level since 2010, according to a poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The poll found that most Americans support two proposals laid out by former president Donald Trump: using U.S. troops to stop immigrants from coming into the United States from Mexico and expanding a wall on that border.

But a larger majority of Americans oppose Trump’s proposal to put undocumented immigrants in mass-detention camps. If elected, Trump has pledged to immediately launch “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”

A late July Wall Street Journal poll found that voters thought Trump would handle immigration better than Harris by 53 percent to 40 percent.

Chicago Council’s poll found 50 percent of Americans say large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the United States is a critical threat to the country’s interests, marking the highest level in Chicago Council polling since 2010, when it was 51 percent. Concerns over immigrants as a threat peaked at 60 percent in 2002, less than one year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The United States has about 45 million immigrants, about 11 million of whom are undocumented.

“Mood on Main Street Darkens”

In the US, NFIB “Mood on Main Street Darkens” Small Business Optimism Dips

The July jump in small business optimism momentum lasted precisely one month.

What Are the Odds of Recession?

In case you missed it, please see The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?

Many eyes are on the McKelvey recession indicator. Too many? That would probably be the case if everyone believed it.

Heck, most of my own readers don’t seem to believe it. I have the odds well over 50 percent that a recession is underway. Click on the above link for discussion.

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The giant ball of fire that our planet revolves around has been far more active than scientists originally anticipated this year, and that could have very serious implications for all of us in the months ahead.  Fluctuations in solar activity affect our climate more than anything else does, and we also tend to see more earthquakes when solar activity is at elevated levels.  The current solar cycle is supposed to reach a peak at some point during the next 12 months, but so far there are no signs that solar activity is slowing down. 

In fact, the average number of sunspots that we witnessed last month was the highest that we have seen since 2001…

The average number of sunspots reached 215.5 in August, according to the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center at the Royal Observatory in Belgium. It’s the highest number since Sept.-Dec. 2001, according to SpaceWeather.com. July’s total was 196.5. Last month, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued a preliminary statement that solar activity is at its highest since March 2001.

This wasn’t supposed to happen.

Scientists were originally projecting that we would see about half as many sunspots during the month of August…

Experts had predicted that August would only see half as many sunspots, indicating that the solar maximum is imminent, and it may be more active than anticipated, possibly bringing intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

The number of sunspots has been increasing at an exponential rate for the past couple of months.

Hopefully we will get a reprieve here in September.

Because if we don’t, we could see more severe geomagnetic storms like we did in May…

In May 2024, Earth experienced its strongest geomagnetic storm in over 20 years, with auroras visible much farther south than usual, including regions as far as Florida and Mexico. If another large sunspot appears around the time of the September equinox, it could lead to a similar or even stronger event.

When a very large geomagnetic storm occurs, it can disrupt our lives in countless ways.

Back in May, even farm equipment was dramatically affected…

Ronald Rabon, the owner of Double R Farms, said back in May when the G-5 extreme solar magnetic levels occurred, he was out spraying his cotton field when his equipment started acting up.

“I didn’t know what was wrong with it,” Rabon said. “All I knew, it was, and you could get it straightened up and go for a few minutes. And it might go 20, 30 minutes and whatever minutes from then, all of a sudden, you’d be going through the field and it might just take a left.”

Rabon said one of the biggest problems with the solar flares is preventing his sprayers from being accurate. His GPS uses precise alignments for spraying, and when knocked out of its track, could overspray his crop and kill it.

Of course if our planet is hit by a large enough storm, it could fry power grids, take down the Internet, and cause massive societal problems all over the world.

Hopefully such a scenario will not play out any time soon.

All of the solar activity that we have been witnessing is also the primary reason why there has been so much intense heat this summer…

Summer broke global heat records for the second straight year, scientists have confirmed — putting 2024 firmly on track to be the hottest year in recorded history.

The period between June and August — summer in the Northern Hemisphere — was the world’s hottest such period since records began in 1940, according to data published Friday by Copernicus, Europe’s climate change service.

Much more importantly, there tends to be a lot of seismic activity when solar activity is very high, and that is precisely what has been occurring.

In particular, a lot of experts are quite alarmed about all of the shaking that we have seen in California lately…

Residents in California experienced a swarm of five earthquakes within the last 48 hours.

A 4.4-magnitude was felt in the north around Lake County on Saturday and two more struck the area the following evening, ranked as a 2.7 and 2.8-magnitude.

Locals in southern California also reported two more quakes on Saturday, with the largest ranking a 3.9-magnitude.

Within the past 7 days, there have been more than 900 earthquakes in California and Nevada.

As I discussed the other day, I am extremely concerned about the instability that we have been witnessing on the west coast.

This is something that I will be watching very, very closely during the months to come.  In my brand new book, I explain why I believe that we have entered a time when we will see historic earthquakes of absolutely epic proportions.

Of course it isn’t just the U.S. that will be affected.

There has also been a lot of shaking south of the border lately too.

On September 6th, a gigantic crack in the Earth that suddenly opened up actually swallowed four cows…

A large earth crack opened in Ejido J. Cruz Gálvez, located in the Hermosillo municipality of Sonora, Mexico, on September 6, 2024, swallowing four cows.

The crack is reported to be approximately 3 km (1.8 miles) long and 1.5 m (5 feet) wide, with a depth of 4 m (13 feet) in some sections.

According to the rancher who recorded a video of the crack, it swallowed four cows. Local authorities have not yet issued any statements regarding the matter.

It is not normal for a crack in the Earth that is 3 kilometers long to appear out of nowhere.

When will people finally start to wake up?

Our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, and this should deeply alarm all of us.

Meanwhile, the skies above our heads are becoming increasingly active as well.

For example, a giant space rock that is “approximately the size of two football fields” will come flying by our planet on September 15th…

An asteroid approximately the size of two football fields is set to make a close approach to Earth this month. According to the New York Post, the 720-foot-wide asteroid named 2024 ON, will pass around 620,000 miles from our planet on September 15. While this distance might seem vast, it’s remarkably close in astronomical terms – equivalent to just 2.6 times the distance between our planet and the Moon. However, it poses no threat to Earth.

The good news is that this particular giant space rock is definitely going to miss us.

In the future, we may not be so fortunate.

So much is happening in the skies above our heads, but most of the population is not paying attention.

Unfortunately, it is just a matter of time before major events start to happen that none of us will be able to ignore.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

In a move that’s undoubtedly going to be used to justify more censorship, 42 state and U.S. territory attorneys general are urging Congress to mandate Surgeon General warnings on algorithm-driven social media platforms, aiming to combat the growing mental health crisis among America’s youth. The group, representing 39 states, the District of Columbia, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, sent a letter on September 9 to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY.), calling for swift federal action to address the harmful impact of social media on young people.

The push follows U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy’s call in June for such labels, which would serve as a reminder that social media has not been proven safe for youth. Murthy pointed out that warning labels on products like tobacco have successfully raised awareness and changed behavior, suggesting similar potential benefits for social media platforms.

“We, the attorneys general of the 42 undersigned states, write in support of the United States Surgeon General’s recent call,” the letter stated. “Young people are facing a mental health crisis, which is fueled in large part by social media.” (and not vapid millennial parents who have no idea what they’re doing)

The attorneys general cited research linking social media use to increased rates of depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts among adolescents. They pointed to studies showing how these platforms disrupt sleep, foster body dissatisfaction, and promote self-harm, creating a compelling case for greater oversight.

While several states have already taken steps to address the issue—such as Tennessee’s Protecting Children from Social Media Act, which requires parental consent for minors to create social media accounts, and California’s law mandating platforms to assess and mitigate harms to children—the attorneys general argue that state-level efforts are not sufficient. They call for a unified federal approach to establish a consistent standard nationwide.

The letter highlights that 41 states and the District of Columbia have already filed lawsuits against Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, for allegedly encouraging harmful levels of platform engagement among young users. Other states, including Arkansas, Indiana, and Iowa, have initiated legal actions against TikTok for violating consumer protection laws. Despite these efforts, the attorneys general emphasize that a broader federal mandate is essential for comprehensive protection.

While acknowledging that a Surgeon General warning label would not solve the problem, the attorneys general believe it would be a critical step in mitigating risks to youth. They argue that the labels would raise public awareness, encourage more research, and spur additional regulatory oversight of social media companies.

The letter also references recent legislative actions like the passage of the Kids Online Safety Act and the Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act as evidence of Congress’s willingness to tackle the issue.

The attorneys general who signed the letter represent a diverse array of states, including Alabama, California, Florida, Michigan, New York, Texas, and Virginia, among others. However, some states, such as Iowa and Nebraska, while cited as examples of states that have implemented policies to protect children from the harms of social media, were not signatories on the letter.

The coalition closed their plea by stressing the urgent need for federal action, reinforcing the bipartisan nature of their concern for the mental well-being of America’s youth.

Authored by Robert Hargraves via RealClearEnergy,

World Bank policy states: “WBG will not finance nuclear power generation or provide specific technical assistance for its assessment and development because safety of nuclear facilities and non-proliferation are not in the WBG’s areas of expertise, nor will the WBG build internal capacity in matters related to nuclear power generation.” Paraphrase: “We won’t do it and we won’t learn about it.”

You exhibited social leadership in your chairmanship of General Atlantic’s climate-focused fund, BeyondNetZero, and business leadership at Mastercard. Can you now lead World Bank directors to finance nuclear power, the only realistic, CO2-free route to changing energy poverty to economic prosperity for billions of people in developing nations?

To help mitigate climate change World Bank has stopped financing new coal-fired power plants. This is morally conflicting because such ample, reliable electricity is essential to prosperity in developing nations. As a half-measure the World Bank continues to finance natural gas power plants, because their CO2 emissions are half as bad.

Electrifying prosperity. Without better jobs poor people can’t afford labor-saving electric luxuries such as washing machines. A prosperous economy requires ample, full-time power to support industry and commerce. North America average power use is 1500 watts per person; European Union: 700 watts; China: 400 watts; India, SE Asia, and Africa: under 100 watts.

For developing nations, 100 watts of full-time average electricity use correlates with $3500 of GDP. A new 1 GW power plant can support $32 billion of GDP growth.

Electricity access for nearly one billion people without power is a noble goal for the World Bank, but installing solar panels for them is not enough. Intermittent solar and wind power can’t drive nations’ commerce and industry. 

Rich nations do what they want. Poor nations do what they must. Today they choose coal-fired power plants because they provide ample, reliable, 24×7 power at affordable costs, even if their CO2 emissions create societal costs. You can help change their choice by endorsing new low-cost nuclear power plants that can generate full-time electricity cheaper than coal-fired or LNG-fired power plants.

Fear. Will the World Bank remain a victim of the flawed ‘common knowledge’ that low levels of radiation cause cancer? Many nuclear power opponents are financed by fund flows they induce from public fear of all radiation. Yet nuclear power plants have the best safety record of power generation technologies.

Science shows that moderate radiation is not harmful, but biased scientists and international agencies such as International Commission on Radiological Protection ignore DNA repair and immune response biology revealed by three 2015 chemistry Nobel Prize winners. 

Many misled people are fearful of nuclear power, urging officials to further increase burdening over-regulation and costs. But no one was hurt by radiation from the Fukushima catastrophe. No one has been harmed by nuclear power in nearly four decades. 

Cost. World Bank reports state “solar PV now cheaper than nuclear in developed economies” but PV solar only seems cheap in nations with obscure, complex tax, subsidy, and backup power systems.

Radiophobia and resulting over-zealous regulation ballooned nuclear costs in rich nations that can also afford to invest trillions of dollars in expensive, intermittent, renewable energy. 

New nuclear power plants can be built for less in factories and shipyards, then set up on site within two years. Technologies such as low pressure liquid fuel simplify design and reduce costs. At least two developers claim ample, full-time energy cheaper than coal.

Willfull ignorance. Nuclear fear and cost evidence is ignored by World Bank refusal even to “build internal capacity in matters related to nuclear power generation.”

Blacklisting nuclear. One hundred voting member countries are interested in nuclear power, but it seems wealthy voting members Germany, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Ireland, and Australia are allowed to blacklist nuclear power.

Emission free prosperity. You can lead World Bank directors to recognize the truly benign health effects of nuclear power plant radiation and to finance low cost, reliable, nuclear power plants for developing nations seeking full-time, CO2-free, electric power.

Dr. Robert Hargraves teaches at Dartmouth’s Osher Lifelong Learning Institute and is a co-founder of nuclear-engineering company Thorcon International and author of New Nuclear is HOT!

Despite Goldman analysts highlighting the latest gloomy high-frequency economic data out of China, and others at the bank noting that iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak” with prices hovering around a multi-year low of $93/ton, a trader from the bank told clients on Tuesday that the base metal could be primed for a ‘short covering rally.’

“The desk turn slightly more constructive in the next couple of weeks, but remain structurally bearish for longer-term outlook,” Goldman’s commodity trader Mark Ma wrote in a weekly update on iron ore and steel markets, which was featured in a note distributed to clients by Thomas Evans. 

Ma said, “We expect to see short covering led rally before the long weekend and the Golden Week, after bears have gained >10% within a week only,” adding, “Pre-holiday restocking from steel mills would also add fuel to the rebound. Having said that, we still believe iron ore would remain structurally oversupplied in the long term on abundant shipment and poor Chinese demand. We don’t think the market could rebalance itself until we see production cut from mining juniors, which hasn’t materialized yet. Market sentiment can’t be more pessimistic. 9 out of 10 people in the market are bearish. Positioning wise, CTA is almost max short. Hedge ratio is high for large trading houses.” 

He expects any squeeze in the base metal could “trigger a 5% short covering bounce from here” and that clients should “be ready to sell at the $95-100” level. 

Ma continued, “Macro bears, CTA and discretionary money managers can’t wait for the peak demand season to pass to go short. Iron ore slumps for 5 consecutive days in a row to end the week 12% lower WoW.” 

The trader summarizes the driving forces behind the iron ore market, including there is elevated supply and soft demand for steel in China, and elsewhere: 

1. Market looks pass the seasonal demand recovery and continues to trade the longer term structural surplus in Fe content resulted from robust IO supply and lackluster domestic steel demand.

2. Pig iron output has bottomed out at 2.2mtpd and gradually picks up on marginal margin expansion due to lower met coke and IO price. There is more room for pig iron output to grow sequentially from here to 2.3mtpd if margin could hold or further improve.

3. Portside inventory stays at elevated level on back of strong shipment from Brazil and lack of production cut from mining juniors. Import arb stays slightly negative owing to the inventory overhang. 2/3 of 150mnt+ inventory is held by traders, which leaves very little room for trading houses to speculate.

4. Index-setting tons are well supplied in both port and seaborne market. MNPJ premium all stays in negative territory. SGX curve has shifted to contango from Sep to Dec, as a result of weak premium market and poor pricing.

5. Not only MNPJ premium, but also LP and 65/62 are sold off. LP retraces to 14c/dmtu upon traders puking and MOC offering down. 65/62 is compressed to the lowest level of the year, as mills continuously switch from high grade to low grade IO consumption to reduce productivity.

6. Steel mills take the tumble as a good opportunity to restock ahead of the long weekend and upcoming golden week in early Oct. Miners and traders are also keen to sell into the pre-holiday restocking flows, and thus transaction volumes grow at lower prices.

Hot metal production across China has slumped to a seasonal low amid high inventory levels at ports. 

As for the steel market, the trader said prices touched a “7-year low upon the continuation of distressed property demand and slowing infra demand, in spite of a resilient steel export push.” 

In a separate note, a team of Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham and Daan Struyven said that iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak” as prices traded at a two-year low. 

This was the most stunning chart from the analysts’ report: Only 1% of steel mills are profitable in the world’s second-largest economy. As profitability collapses, hot metal output declines.

Earlier this month, Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky told clients, “Iron ore is dropping to 90, China will continue to struggle, and commodities as a whole, I think, are reflecting the downgrade to growth expectations in the geography.” 

A memo released by the China Iron & Steel Association to industry insiders also noted, “There will be a certain degree of recovery in steel demand through September and October, which is favorable for the steel market.” 

“However, we need to be cautious of the impulse to restart production,” the association said, adding the risk of too much steelmaking material output could dampen “any improvement in the situation will end up a flash in the pan.”

China’s steel industry has been under pressure amid a severe property market downturn and weak economic recovery.

Last month, Baowu Steel Group Chairman Hu Wangming warned that economic conditions in the world’s second-largest economy felt like a “harsh winter.”

As the world’s largest steel producer, Baowu Steel’s chairman said the steel industry’s downturn could be “longer, colder, and more difficult to endure than expected,” potentially mirroring the severe downturns of 2008 and 2015.

Another team of Goldman analysts, led by Yuting Yang and Lisheng Wang, published high-frequency economic indicators, including consumption and mobility; production and investment; other macro activity, and markets and policy, that revealed there was no imminent recovery in China.