Month: September 2024

The initial reaction to last night’s debate was that Trump was Trump, the moderators became debaters, and Harris, while nervous and rehearsed, didn’t crash and burn – leading to an initial kneejerk in the betting markets favoring the Vice President’s odds in November.

Bettors on @Polymarket saw this debate as an out-performance for Kamala
* Trump went from +7 to even odds
* 97% chance Kamala won debate according to polls (74% before debate)
* Kamala up 3% to win popular vote

No major gaffes or terrible moments for Harris pic.twitter.com/8cGAJN07MM

— Nikolai Yakovenko (@ivan_bezdomny) September 11, 2024

While some conservative sites have called the debate for Trump, along with speaker Mike Johnson…

Mike Johnson on Fox Business insists Trump actually won the debate, citing polls from Newsmax and the Daily Caller (sounds legit) pic.twitter.com/NXzLihRTpx

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 11, 2024

…most on the left are celebrating – with Punchbowl News writing that “Tuesday night’s debate couldn’t have gone better for Harris.”

Politico writes: “Trump’s Improv Stood No Chance Against Harris’ Coached Attacks.”

Harris’ strategy in her first debate as a presidential nominee was custom-tailored for one specific moment and one specific opponent. She plainly used her long days of debate prep in a Pittsburgh hotel to compile a rich anthology of taunts, putdowns and derisive one-liners against former President Donald Trump.

Of course, Trump was in a 3-on-1 debate:

This clip may be the most egregious example of ABC debate moderators’ direct actions/inactions to affect viewers’ perceptions of the information presented at the debate.

There are at least seven instances of this within a two-minute span.

This is not “bias.”

It’s much worse.… pic.twitter.com/tYJhZwGwdW

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) September 11, 2024

And Harris was allowed to get away with murder:

Last night Kamala lied and said she wouldn’t take away your guns despite evidence of her saying otherwise. She did not get fact checked by ABC moderator David Muir. https://t.co/7JKIrEGgXe

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 11, 2024

In fact, here are the ‘top 5 lies’ that ABC News moderators failed to fact-check via Collin Rugg:

1. Mandatory Firearm Buybacks:

Kamala Harris told Trump to “stop lying” about her wanting to confiscate firearms. Harris has previously stated multiple times that she wants to launch a mandatory buyback program.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

2. “Fine People” Hoax:

Kamala Harris claimed Trump called neo-N*zi’s “very fine people.” This hoax was debunked by Snopes but the ABC moderators let it slide.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

3. Post-Birth Abortion:

Trump claimed babies were ‘k*lled’ outside the womb in failed abortions. Under Tim Walz, babies born alive in botched abortions are allowed to be left to d*e.

Eight babies who survived abortions in Minnesota were abandoned and sadly perished under Walz.

The ABC moderators simply said Trump was lying and moved on without adding context.

4. Defund the Police:

Kamala Harris laughed when Trump said she wanted to defund the police. During a previous interview, Harris said having more cops on the street is “wrong.”

She also supported taking police officers out of schools.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

5. Bloodbath Hoax:

Kamala Harris claimed Trump said there would be a bl**dbath if he is not elected, insinuating that his supporters would start k*lling people.

This is completely false. The comment was made during a rally where Trump said there would be a “bl**dbath” for the American auto industry if he is not elected.

The ABC moderators said nothing.

Top 5 lies that the ABC News moderators refused to fact-check or falsely fact-checked during the debate:

1. Mandatory Firearm Buybacks:

Kamala Harris told Trump to “stop lying” about her wanting to confiscate firearms. Harris has previously stated multiple times that she wants… pic.twitter.com/6aXznDnq7O

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 11, 2024

While Goldman notes that the debate “seems to have gone in favor of Harris judging by betting markets and the reaction in assets overnight.,” ING suggest a ‘wait and see’ approach, writing this AM: “Markets may want to wait on new opinion polls in the coming days to take more decisive positions on the election,” adding “For now, indications that Harris won this debate, even if by a small margin, can keep a lid on the dollar.”

That said, according to Reuters, 70% of an admittedly small polling group of undecided voters said they would either vote for Trump, or were leaning towards backing him.

The encounter was particularly important for Harris, with a weekend New York Times/Siena College opinion poll showing that more than a quarter of likely voters feel they do not know enough about her, in contrast to the well-known Trump.

 

The Trump converts said they trusted him more on the economy, even though all said they did not like him as a person. They said their personal financial situation had been better when he was president between 2017-2021. Some singled out his proposal to tax foreign imports, although economists say that is likely to raise prices.

Meanwhile, the media is already starting to lie and gaslight. For starter’s the New Yorker‘s Susan Glasser has never heard of Harris’ plan that would support taxpayer-funded gender care and transition surgeries for detained illegal aliens.

Trump made history last night for sure. Who will ever forget him ranting on stage about immigrants eating people’s dogs? Or insisting that the Vice President ‘wants to do transgender operations on illegal aliens that are in jail’?

My piece on Trump’s too-crazy moment:…

— Susan Glasser (@sbg1) September 11, 2024

Except it’s true, and CNN even covered it:

Apparently, @sbg1 and fact checkers at the @NewYorker have not heard of this news outlet called CNN.

Gaslight much? https://t.co/b1NCH29c3v pic.twitter.com/EtOu19RAxy

— Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) September 11, 2024

Many are saying this won’t move the needle much in either direction.

My debate analysis won’t make anyone happy. I think Kamala was weak and nervous, especially early. She came off as phony and rehearsed the rest of the way. But Trump missed a lot of opportunities to land a blow, rambled too much, and took the bait repeatedly throughout. I don’t…

— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) September 11, 2024

Of course Harris wants a 2nd debate…

That said, as ZeroHedge friend and contributor “Quoth the Raven” suggests, the debate will backfire for both Harris and ABC…

After last night, when the average critically thinking, independent or moderate voter begins to emerge from the visceral reaction of who “won” the debate, the picture will start to come into focus. And it’ll be a picture of a news network that constantly tried to fact-check Donald Trump, despite Kamala Harris repeating multiple debunked conspiracy theories, like Trump’s Charlottesville comments, which were already debunked by Snopes, and his “bloodbath” comment, which was used in the context of talking about the auto industry.

…

More people know today that the left-leaning media has a narrative and lies to them than ever before. This debate will be different from other ones because it’ll eventually be looked at in that context. And when people go back and watch how the moderators constantly argued the merits with Trump while leading Harris in her answers to multiple questions, this debate will be revealed for the biased farce that it was. And then — mark my words — it will do more harm than good for Kamala Harris.

the #debate in a nutshell pic.twitter.com/yDOPL5wVSL

— Skscartoon (@skscartoon) September 11, 2024

If ever in doubt whether the Biden admin will rig and manipulate “data” to suit its goals and policies, don’t be: moments ago the Biden Dept of Energy published its weekly EIA oil storage report, which was a shocking mirror image of everything the private API reported yesterday.

As a reminder, this is what API said happened to various energy stocks over the past week:

• Crude -2.8MM (9th weekly draw in the past 10 weeks), and well below estimates of a +1.0MM build
• Gasoline -0.5MM
• Distillates +0.2MM
• Cushing -2.6MM (also 9th weekly draw in the past 10 weeks)

The last one was especially notable as it represented the biggest weekly drain in Cushing stocks since August 18, 2023 and sent the oil inventory in Cushing storage low enough to reach the dreaded “tank bottoms.”

That’s when Kamala’s/Biden’s department of goalseeking data stepped in, and moments ago reported what can only be described as a laughable mirror image of everything the API indicated yesterday. Here are the details:

• Crude +833K, Exp. +1.05MM
• Gasoline +2.31MM
• Distillates +2.308MM
• Cushing -1.704MM
• Production 13.3MMb/d, unch

That’s right: instead of 3 sets of draws, the EIA somehow found builds pretty much across the board, with Crude rising 833K, barely missing the estimate of 1.05MM (and a far cry from the 2.6MM draw per API) except for Cushing, which has emerged as the great source of all the liquidation magic we have observed in the past three months, and as shown below, Cushing has now drawn 9 out of the past 10 weeks!

One possible reason for the build is that in the past week, the Biden admin added just 279K to the SPR, the lowest weekly addition this year, and a huge swing from last week’s 1.8mm increase to the SPR,, which was the largest increase since June 2020.

The increase in stocks meant that after hitting a one  year low, total crude inventory (ex SPR) posted a small gain.

And even though the drop in Cushing was lower according to the EIA vs the API’s huge 2.8MM draw, 1-2 more weeks of this drain means that Cushing is still facing tank bottoms.

But there is still some time before we hit the bottom of Cushing: until then the CTAs and shorts are in control, and after staging a modest rebound, oil was slammed by over a buck to session lows, and just shy of the lowest level since 2021 (which in turn preceded a doubling in the price of oil in the next 3 months).

Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,

To steal a phrase from Thomas Jefferson, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have buried us under a “deluge of paper money.” 

We deal with the consequences of this monetary malfeasance every time we go to the grocery store or the gas station. Our rapidly deprecating money buys less and less every single day.

Central bankers and politicos claim to be fighting this inflationary monster, but the ugly truth is that inflation is by design. The political class is destroying your money as a matter of policy. 

This is nothing new. Government people have been ruining our money for their gain since the Republic’s earliest days. Sadly, most people don’t realize what’s happening. They believe price inflation is due to greedy corporations, Putin’s price hikes, or voodoo.

As Thomas Jefferson warned, “The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause & consequences.”

Looking at the past can inform us about the present. As the saying goes, history doesn’t necessarily repeat. But it often rhymes. With that in mind, the first American boom-bust crisis in the early 19th century is informative.

During this period. Jefferson’s chilling warnings about unchecked fiat, paper money proved prophetic.

In an 1814 letter to Thomas Cooper, Jefferson wrote, “Every thing predicted by the enemies of banks, in the beginning, is now coming to pass. we are to be ruined now by the deluge of bank paper as we were formerly by the old Continental paper.”

Just one year later, a depression gripped the United States kicked off by financial panic. This economic downturn lasted until 1821 and is widely viewed as the first boom-bust period in U.S. history. 

It was exactly what Jefferson predicted. 

The depression was rooted in an all-too-familiar problem – excessive money printing.

The economic downturn came on the heels of the War of 1812, which officially ended with the signing of the Treaty of Ghent on Feb. 18, 1815. After the war, banknotes began to rapidly depreciate due to the exponential increase in the amount of paper in circulation. 

The First Bank of the United States charter ended in 1811 and was not renewed. The Second Bank of the United States (SBUS) wasn’t created until 1816. This led to a proliferation of state-chartered banks.

As economist Murray Rothbard explained in his book, The Panic of 1819, to fund the war, the federal government turned to these state-chartered banks, and they issued large numbers of paper money banknotes far exceeding the amount of gold to back them. 

This caused gold to drain from these banks. To keep the money flowing, the U.S. government agreed to a suspension of specie payments from state banks and the situation persisted after the war ended. This allowed banks to make loans with little to no regard for gold reserves to bank them.

It was a formula for disaster.

Jefferson understood this all too well, making his views clear in his letter to Cooper. 

“I am an enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for any thing but coin. but our whole country is so fascinated with this Jack lanthern wealth, that they will not stop short of its total and fatal explosion”

On March 23, 1815, the U.S. entered a period of financial panic. It was followed by several years of mild depression culminating in a sharp economic downturn known as the Panic of 1819.

The panic was exacerbated by financial conditions in Europe in the wake of the Napoleonic wars, but it was fundamentally a domestic problem caused by money printing.

Whenever the money supply rapidly expands, as it did during the war years, it creates all kinds of malinvestments in the economy. The expansion of credit fueled land speculation in the West, that likely would not have happened in a more sound monetary environment. Historian George Dangerfield argued that the entire postwar American economy was “based on a land boom.”

Since the U.S. Treasury accepted payments for land in the form of state-issued bank notes, state-chartered banks helped fund this land boom. The problem was most of them lacked sufficient specie to back their paper. 

After it opened for business in 1817, the Second Bank of the United States (SBUS) jumped right in to further expand money and credit.

The SBUS had 18 branches. They were supposed to operate with oversight by the main bank in Philadelphia, but the oversight was lax. Meanwhile, the SBUS was supposed to regulate state banks. This oversight was also lax. 

Meanwhile, western branches of the national bank got caught up in the land boom mania and began issuing SBUS banknotes at a dizzying pace. In his book The Awakening of American Nationalism, Dangerfield noted that SBUS banks tried to restock their insufficient gold reserves by redeeming their notes for hard money at eastern and northern SBUS branches.

The result was, as Jefferson called it, “a deluge of bank paper” without sufficient gold backing.

According to Rothbard, by 1818, the Second Bank of the United States had demand liabilities exceeding $22.4 million. Its specie fund stood at a mere $2.4 million – a 10:1 ratio. A 5:1 ratio was considered sustainable. 

That year, the SBUS tried to rein in the problem by curtailing loans by its western branches. When state banks began presenting their banknotes for redemption at the Second Bank of the United States, it refused to provide gold specie from its reserves. There was simply too much paper and not enough gold. The state banks did the only thing they could do; they began foreclosing on heavily mortgaged farms and business properties. 

This led to widespread bankruptcies, bank failures, a collapse in real estate prices, and spiking unemployment. 

It was just what Jefferson predicted. 

In an 1819 letter to John Adams, Jefferson lamented that the situation would never change or even improve until people understood the root cause of the economic malaise – paper money.

“The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause & consequences.”

Jefferson went on to pinpoint the root of the problem with paper money, “want of a stable, common measure of value, that now in use being less fixed than the beads & wampum of the Indian.”

Jefferson was responding to a letter penned by Adams discussing Chapter 6 of the 1817 Treatise on Political Economy by Destutt de Tracy. Adams cited a passage calling the printing of paper money more ruinous and a greater theft than empires of old shaving off a little gold from their coins and passing them off as full-weight. In other words, Tracy called it stealing.

“A theft of greater magnitude & still more ruinous is the making of paper. It is greater because in this money there is absolutely no real value. It is more ruinous because by its gradual depreciation during all the time of its existence it produces the effect which would be produced by an infinity of successive deteriorations of the coin.”

Adams put it in even harsher terms, writing to Jefferson:

“That is to say an infinity of successive felonious larcenies. If this is true as I believe it is we Americans are the most thievish people that ever existed, we have been stealing from each other for an hundred & fifty years.” [emphasis added]

How much worse are things today?

We can accurately predict another economic meltdown in the future because, after more than 200 years, the problem of paper money remains. The people still have not become radically instructed as to the cause and consequences of the boom-bust cycle that’s fueled by printing massive amounts of paper (and today, electronic) money.

The government continues to print it at a dizzying pace. Just consider that the Federal Reserve created nearly $9 trillion out of thin air since the 2008 financial crisis through quantitative easing alone. That was on top of the expansion of money and credit due to more than a decade of artificially low interest rates.

Economic principles don’t change with the times. In 1788, Jefferson wrote, “Paper is poverty … it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.”

It’s still true today.

In other words, Jefferson called it.

His foresight underscores the enduring danger of paper money and government excess, echoing through history’s economic crises.

The Tenth Amendment Center contributed to this report.

An Israeli Black Hawk helicopter has gone down while engaged in operations in south Gaza, which is a first of the war which has raged for over ten months.

Two soldiers were killed, and eight were injured in the crash and have been rushed to hospitals. The two deceased have been subsequently identified by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as 37-year old Sgt. Maj. Daniel Alloush of Tel Aviv and 38-year old Sgt. Maj. Tom Ish-Shalom of Nes Harim. Both were part of reserve forces.

Military officials are describing it as a crash and not the result of enemy ground fire, but which resulted in serious damage to the aircraft. It happened in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah. It has been identified as a UH-60 Black Hawk from the 123rd Squadron.

“According to an initial IAF probe, a UH-60 Black Hawk from the 123rd Squadron flew to Rafah with a Unit 669 medical team on Tuesday night to evacuate a combat engineer seriously wounded in fighting in the area,” Israeli media details.

“During the final landing stage inside an Israeli army encampment in Rafah at around 12:30 a.m., the helicopter impacted the ground instead of touching down correctly,” the same report continues.

If the Black Hawk had crashed in a more open area with active Hamas militants, there’s a high chance that the eight injured may not have made it out. But given it occurred within the confines of an IDF forward operating base, it appears the emergency response was immediate and rapid, perhaps saving more lives.

Some among the wounded are said to be critical. According to more from Times of Israel based on military statements:

Among the seriously wounded in the crash were two pilots and a mechanic with the IAF’s 123rd Squadron; and a reservist doctor and another soldier with Unit 669.

Additionally, a reservist Unit 669 doctor and another mechanic with the 123rd Squadron were moderately wounded in the crash, the IDF said.

The seriously wounded combat engineer, who was supposed to be evacuated by the crashed Black Hawk, served with the 710th Combat Engineering Battalion.

It is somewhat rare for Black Hawks to crash in active war zones, and brings up images of the most famous such incident: the Black Hawk Down Incident which occurred during the Battle of Mogadishu in October 1993 in Somalia.

Israel Black Hawk Helicopter Crash in the Philadelphi Route Area:

The crash occurred at a very low altitude, just moments before touchdown, and at a low speed. While the exact cause of the crash remains unknown.

As a result of the crash, two IDF soldiers were killed. Eight… pic.twitter.com/eyS3UnlBfL

— Boar News (@PhamDuyHien9) September 11, 2024

The result of that historic tragedy was that 18 American troops, including elite special forces commandos, were killed, and another 84 wounded. In that instance an RPG had brought the helicopter down, and the crash survivors spent hours fending off hundreds of Somali militants.

US futures, the dollar and treasury yields are all lower post-Debate and pre-CPI but off session lows. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.1%, recovering from a loss of 0.5% earlier; Nasdaq futures were down 0.2% with Mag7 and Semis lower as Energy stocks rebound from yesterday’s drubbing. Treasuries had minimal moves during the debate, but yields are 3-4bps lower now, hitting fresh 2024 lows. USD is lower and commodities are higher led by Energy, Ags, and Precious, with oil rebounding from Tuesday’s rout. The macro data focus today is on the CPI print (full preview here) and the 10Y bond auction.

Betting markets indicate a Harris victory in the debate as her odds to win had her leading Trump by 1-point as the debate started to now 11-points this morning, a signal that many expect her candidacy to earn a boost from Tuesday’s proceedings. Her odds of winning the election increased on the betting website PredictIt to 57%, compared with 53% before the debate. The reaction in assets confirmed this shift in sentiment:  the dollar is weaker and US domestic equities are broadly lower. Stocks in renewable energy producers rose, gaining strength from the debate and Harris’ advocacy of green energy. Meanwhile, Trump’s support of the crypto sector and the Democrat’s endless feud, fueled a pullback in the price of Bitcoin.

“Markets may want to wait on new opinion polls in the coming days to take more decisive positions on the election,” ING Groep NV currency strategists including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note to clients. “For now, indications that Harris won this debate, even if by a small margin, can keep a lid on the dollar.”

The threat of far-reaching tariffs is shaping up to be among the biggest risks to markets. While Trump placed tariffs on more than $300 billion of Chinese goods as president and sought to block countries from buying Huawei Technologies Co. equipment for 5G networks, Harris’ stance is lesser known after she joined the ticket late.

“Historically I would have said: don’t waste too much time thinking about a presidential election,” said Ronald Temple, chief strategist at Lazard Asset Management. “But I think it is consequential because you are talking about a huge amounts of tariffs. Right now the market is not pricing a global trade war.”

In premarket trading, GameStop tumbled 10% after the video-game retailer reported second-quarter net sales that disappointed. Baird said the results demonstrated the ongoing challenges to the company’s retail business model. Dave & Buster’s jumped 13% after the restaurant chain reported second-quarter profit that came in ahead of estimates. Analysts highlighted the company’s margin performance. Here are some other notable movers:

• Designer Brands (DBI) drops 25% after the parent company of footwear and accessories chain DSW reported an unexpected decline in comparable sales for its second quarter.
• Trump Media & Technology falls 13% following the US presidential debate between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump.
• Viking Therapeutics rises 3% after JPMorgan initiated coverage of the obesity drug developer with an bullish rating  rating and ahead obesity pill data.
• Viridian Therapeutics slips 2% as the drug developer offers $150 million in common shares and convertible preferred stock.

Worries over a global slowdown in growth have resurfaced with oil trading below $70 and global bond yields retreating to a two-year low this week. Investors’ attention is on the US consumer price index due later Wednesday, expected to show another month of muted increases, and the Fed policy meeting next week.

“We do think that the downside risks for growth are higher than the upside risks for inflation,” Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “If you look at wage growth, there’s really no signs that wage growth is picking up.”

As discussed in our preview, the CPI report later will probably show US consumer prices climbed in August at the slowest pace in more than three years, but the question for policymakers is whether the data warrants an outsized interest rate cut of 50 basis points, or whether a quarter-point interest-rate cut is enough. Traders are fully pricing a smaller cut, while still betting on at least one 50 basis-point Fed rate cut this year — just probably not before the Nov. 5 election.

European stocks tick higher as investors await sensitive US inflation data due later on Wednesday for clues about the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy moves. The Stoxx600 was up 0.6%, as mining stocks and retailers outperform, with Zara-owner Inditex rallying after reporting rising sales in the third quarter. Telecoms and health care stocks lag. Here are the most notable European movers:

• Commerzbank shares gain as much as 18%, the most since March 2020, after the German government announced it has sold its 4.5% stake in the lender to Italy’s UniCredit, taking the Italian lender’s stake to 9%.
• Deliveroo shares rise as much as 8.3% after the food-delivery company said it proposes to transfer its listing to a category that will allow the stock to be included in FTSE benchmarks.
• Inditex shares rise as much as 2.9% after the Zara owner reported first-half Ebit above estimates.
• AstraZeneca shares slip as much as 1.8%. Nordea downgrades the stock, saying the pharma firm’s growth is set to “drop drastically” heading into 2025.
• Nolato shares climb as much as 10% after the Swedish plastics firm’s stock was upgraded to buy from hold at Carnegie, with the broker seeing “improved risk/reward after share price decline since 2Q report.”
• Trustpilot shares gain as much as 9.6%, the most in almost six months, after the online review platform said it now expects full-year adjusted Ebitda to be toward the top end of market expectations.
• Rentokil shares plunge as much as 20% to the lowest since April 2020. The pest control business issued a surprise downgrade to its growth ambitions in North America.
• Novartis shares drop as much as 2.7% after being downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America Global Research, which cited a “slower catalyst path to year-end.”
• Neste shares fall as much as 5% after the firm cut its full-year guidance for renewable products.
• Santander Bank Polska shares drop as much as 9.5% after its owner Banco Santander sold a 5.2% stake via accelerated book-building, a move seen as surprising by analysts.
• Jet2 shares drop as much as 4.7% after former Chairman Philip Meeson sold 5 million shares in the company to a limited number of institutional investors.
• Husqvarna shares drop as much as 7%, to the lowest since October 2022, after the maker of outdoor power products issued a profit warning.

Asian equities fell for the third successive session as weakness in Japan deepened amid a strengthening yen. Chinese stocks resumed their decline. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.7%, with Toyota Motor, Samsung Electronics and Commonwealth Bank of Australia among the biggest drags. Chinese shares in Hong Kong and the mainland closed lower as investors continued to fret over the outlook for Asia’s largest economy and as sentiment remained muted around the US presidential debate. In Japan, the Topix index fell for a sixth straight day, the longest streak since July 2023, as concerns over the impact of a stronger local currency on exporters’ earnings lingered. Other major markets including Australia, South Korea and Taiwan also closed lower.

“We are strategically underweight China equities in global and EM equity baskets, due to the structural slowing of growth and low EPS prospects,” Alex Ng, head of research at Fortress Hill Advisors, wrote in a note on Smartkarma. “Further targeted policies from China authorities could cause intermittent trading-driven short-covering, but aggressive game-changing policy would be required to sustain a rally.”

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index falls 0.2%. NZD and GBP are the weakest performers in G-10 FX. The yen extended gains, partly spurred by hawkish commentary from a BOJ official, boosting the yen to as high as 140.71 per dollar before it pared some gains to around the 141 level. Swiss franc see haven demand ahead of US CPI data.

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by long-end after benchmark yields touched new YTD lows during European morning. Long-end yields remain richer by ~2bp after falling as much as 4bp, marginally outperforming shorter maturities; 10-year at 3.625% outperforms bunds in the sector while trailing gilts. $39b 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time is poised to draw lowest yield since May 2023; WI yield is ~33.5bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 3.1bp in a soft reception. Gilts outperform bunds and Treasuries across the curve.

In commodities, west Texas Intermediate crude rebounded on Wednesday after plummeting as much as 5% in its previous session. WTI crude oil futures are up more than 2% from Tuesday’s lowest closing level since December 2021. Crude has tumbled by almost a fifth so far this quarter on concerns that slowing growth in the US and China, the leading consumers, will crimp demand at a time of robust and expanding supplies. Spot gold rises roughly $9 to trade near $2,525/oz. Spot silver gains 1.4% near $29. Bitcoin drops.

Looking at today’s calendar, the August CPI data are due at 8:30am New York time. The session also includes 10-year note reopening, following strong demand for Tuesday’s 3-year note auction.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 5,489.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 509.22
• MXAP down 0.4% to 179.12
• MXAPJ down 0.2% to 557.11
• Nikkei down 1.5% to 35,619.77
• Topix down 1.8% to 2,530.67
• Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 17,108.71
• Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,721.80
• Sensex down 0.2% to 81,755.05
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,987.87
• Kospi down 0.4% to 2,513.37
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.12%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1046
• Brent Futures up 1.7% to $70.37/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,523.20
• US Dollar Index down 0.21% to 101.42

Top Overnight News

• China Renaissance, one of the country’s leading tech sector investment banks until the disappearance of its founder Bao Fan last year, was ordered to wire authorities Rmb78mn ($11mn) after its star dealmaker went missing, according to a company filing. FT
• Washington for the first time has accused China of directly supporting Putin’s war in Ukraine, a fresh source of tension between the Biden and Xi governments. FT
• Yen rallies vs. the USD after a BOJ official signaled the central bank was prepared to continue raising rates if economic data was consistent with expectations. BBG
• Commerzbank is open to talks about a potential tie-up with UniCredit, according to people familiar with the discussions, after the Italian bank built a 9 per cent stake in its German rival and announced it was taking regulatory steps to increase its stake further. FT
• Ukraine urged by its Western supporters to develop a “Plan B” for the war and outline a credible list of potential achievements for the next 12 months. WSJ
• Mexico’s Senate approved President AMLO’s controversial plan to overhaul the judicial system after a key opposition lawmaker switched sides to vote in favor. The Mexican peso erased its losses. BBG
• Vice President Kamala Harris put former President Donald Trump on the defensive in their first presidential debate, provoking him over crowd sizes at his rallies and his felony convictions—a sign of how the race has been upended with her ascent to the top of the ticket. The race was essentially tied heading into Tuesday night’s event, polls showed, and it didn’t appear that the debate would shake up the contest, though some Republicans worried afterward about Trump’s performance. WSJ
• Hurricane Francine gained strength and is expected to make landfall in Louisiana today, after forcing some offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to be shuttered. Earlier forecasts that the storm would reach Category 2 have been revised downward. BBG
• We expect a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. 0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.17% (vs. 3.2% consensus). In terms of the market’s reaction function, the desk’s view is that a soft print close to expectations is likely the best outcome: it will allow some event risk to pass and equity vol to settle slightly lower very near-term. Scenarios where the data is deemed too hot or too cold could introduce more uncertainty around the Fed’s path, or the current level of US growth. GS GBM

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded cautiously after the two-way price action stateside and as participants await US CPI data. ASX 200 trickled lower as weakness in tech and financials overshadowed the gains in commodity-related stocks. Nikkei 225 was pressured amid currency strength and after BoJ’s Nakagawa kept the door open for further hikes. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood with the former dragged beneath the 17,000 level amid heavy losses in energy stocks, while there was very little to spur a turnaround.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Board Member Nakagawa said one-sided yen falls subsided somewhat but rising import prices could affect consumer inflation with a lag and stated that prolonged inflation overseas could put upward pressure on Japan’s import prices. Nakagawa said even after the July rate hike, real interest rates remain deeply negative and accommodative monetary conditions are maintained. Furthermore, she said if long-term rates spike, the BoJ could review its taper plan at its policy meeting as needed and that the BoJ is likely to adjust the degree of monetary easing if the economy and prices move in line with its projection.
• RBA’s Hunter said the labour market is still tight relative to full employment and has moved towards better balance since late 2022, while she added that the easing in the labour market similar to past mild downturns. Hunter also stated that Australia’s economy is moving through a turning point and that turning points are innately challenging and tough.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) began the session modestly in the green and generally traded near session highs throughout the European morning; in recent trade sentiment in the complex has slipped slightly, with indices displaying more of a mixed picture. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Retail takes the top spot, propped up by post-earning gains in Inditex (+4%). Healthcare is found at the foot of the pile, continuing the losses seen in the prior session. In terms of individual movers, Commerzbank (+17%) soars after UniCredit (+1.9%) bought shares in the Co. from the German Government. US equity futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.4%, RTY -0.7%) are lower across the board, with slight underperformance in the economy-linked RTY as traders digest the Presidential Debate; CNN opinion polls suggest that 63% of voters thought candidate Harris won the debate.

Top European News

• HSBC Signals Maltese Exit Days After New CEO Takes Charge
• GTCR Is Said in Advanced Talks to Buy German Drugmaker Stada
• Infineon Breakthrough to Lower Costs for New-Generation AI Chips
• Deliveroo Soars on Move That Would Allow FTSE Index Inclusions

FX

• USD is softer vs. most peers with the DXY dragged lower by a notable pick-up in the JPY and in the backdrop of the Presidential Debate, where CNN polls suggest Harris won vs Trump. Her candidacy is broadly seen as USD-negative given expectations of easier Fed policy (compared to Trump). US CPI will be the next inflection point for the index.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD with the broadly softer USD providing EUR/USD some reprieve after three sessions of losses which dragged the pair to a 1.1015 low yesterday.
• GBP is unable to materially capitalise on the broadly softer USD as soft UK data acts as a drag. The UK registered 0 growth in July (vs. Exp. 0.2%) with output data also soft across the board. Cable has returned to a 1.30 handle after topping out at 1.3111.
• JPY is the clear outperformer vs. the USD across the majors with the move being attributed to some of the risk-aversion seen in stocks overnight and comments from BoJ’s Nakagawa. As the European morning progressed, USD/JPY has bounced off worst levels and has attempted to pare some of the overnight losses.
• Contained trade for the antipodes with AUD slightly edging out its NZD counterpart. AUD/USD remains sandwiched within its 100 and 200DMAs at 0.6648 and 0.6668 respectively.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1182 vs exp. 7.1198 (prev. 7.1136).

Fixed Income

• USTs have extended on their recent upside amid a slew of factors, including yesterday’s strong 3yr auction, anticipation of Fed easing ahead of CPI, recent downside in oil prices and Harris’ performance in the debate last night. The 2yr yield is at its lowest level since September 2022.
• EGB price action is similar to peers; Bunds have continued their recent bullish run. It remains to be seen how much legs this move has as focus tomorrow will shift to Eurozone-specific developments with the ECB policy announcement. From a yield perspective, with the 10yr moving as low as 2.112%. The German 10yr auction had little impact on Bunds.
• Gilts are outpacing peers as a combination of catch-up trade with other peers and soft UK data. On the latter, the M/M GDP print for July came in at 0% vs. Exp. 0.2%, whilst production, industrial and construction output all came in lower than expected. The 10yr has been as low as 3.771%. The 10yr auction was slightly softer than prior, and led to some pressure in Gilts.
• UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.25% 2034 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.93x), average yield 3.757% (prev. 4.082%), tail 1.3bps (prev. 0.5bps)
• Germany sells EUR 3.688bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.60% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.1x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 2.11% (prev. 2.22%), retention 18.04% (prev. 18.44%)

Crude

• Crude is firmer on the session thus far, and has been gradually edging higher in the European morning, in a paring to some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Brent’Nov sits in a USD 69.31-70.81/bbl range.
• Spot gold is on the front foot, initially benefiting from the softer Dollar; price action today has been contained within a USD 2,515-529/oz range.
• Base metals trade higher across the board in what is seemingly a broader Dollar-induced recovery across industrial commodities.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.8mln (exp. +1.0mln), Distillate +0.2mln (exp. +0.3mln), Gasoline -0.5mln (exp. -0.1mln), Cushing -2.6mln.
• NHC said Francine is moving towards the Louisiana coast, with a life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds expected to begin in Louisiana on Wednesday, but noted Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland.
• NHC said Hurricane Francine a little stronger, life threatening storm surge and hurricane force winds expected to begin in Louisiana today

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli army radio said the Israeli army attacked Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon during the night and destroyed about 25 rocket launchers, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US Defence Secretary Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart Gallant to express grave concern for the IDF’s responsibility for the “unprovoked and unjustified death” of an American in the West Bank, while he urged Gallant to reexamine the IDF’s rules of engagement while operating in the West Bank.

Geopolitics: Other

• Ukraine Foreign Ministry spokesman said Kyiv will consider its options and could even cut ties with Tehran if Russia uses Iranian missiles in the Ukraine war.
• US President Biden said they are working that out now when asked about potentially lifting the Ukraine long-range weapons ban, according to Reuters.
• A cargo train derailed in Russia’s Belgorod region due to outside ‘interference’, according to Russian agencies.
• Russia’s Chairman of the State Duma, on the potential supplies of western long-range weapons to Ukraine, said Russia will have to respond by using more powerful and destructive weapons.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications 1.4%, prior 1.6%
• 08:30: Aug. CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 08:30: Aug. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 08:30: Aug. CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.9%
• 08:30: Aug. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 3.2%
• 08:30: Aug. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.7%
• 08:30: Aug. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One of the themes from our new chart book is the US election, and last night saw Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go head-to-head in what may well be their only TV debate of this election. If you just base it off PredictIt markets, Harris will have come out the happier as her probability of winning the Presidency has edged up from 52% pre-debate to 55% as I type this.

It’s clearly impossible to isolate the direct impact of the debate but S&P 500 (-0.52%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.65%) futures moved lower through the debate, and 10 year USTs yields have moved -2.5bps lower overnight with the dollar also slightly weaker. Bitcoin, which is seen as a Trump trade, has fallen -2.5% since the start of the debate. So the market for now seems to have some agreement with the probabilities above as to how the debate went. We will see how it resonates from here.

Elsewhere it’s a softer Asia session with the Hang Seng (-1.49%) leading losses and with the Nikkei (-0.81%) also losing ground as the Japanese yen has strengthened +0.77% against the dollar and is rising for the second consecutive day. It’s trading at 141.39 against the dollar, hitting its strongest level since 02 January after the BOJ Board Member Junko Nakagawa in her speech signalled the readiness of the central bank to continue raising interest rates if its price and economic outlooks are met.

Ahead of the debate, markets saw a mixed session though increased rate cuts hopes and an improved tech mood helped the S&P 500 +0.45% higher by the close, albeit one that’s been reversed this morning. Treasuries continued their advance amid a further retracement in oil prices and an earlier risk-off mood as global banks had a difficult day after an earnings expectations warning from JPM. In all, there wasn’t a single catalyst but the macro back-and-forth continued as markets try and work out whether the Fed are likely to cut by 25bps or 50bps next week. We’ll get another piece of the jigsaw today with the US CPI release, but if it’s anything like the jobs report last Friday, it’s entirely plausible that it fails to resolve the debate either way, and markets are still left wondering about the decision going into the weekend.

In terms of what to expect from the CPI print, our economists are expecting headline inflation to come in at +0.20% for the month, which would bring year-on-year CPI down to +2.6%. That would be the lowest annual inflation rate since March 2021, so it would cement the view that inflation risk is receding and the Fed are now in a position to cut rates again. Meanwhile for core CPI, they see that coming in at +0.23% for the month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at +3.2%. Our economists point out that one area to focus on will be rental inflation, where there was a surprise move higher in July, so the question is whether that was a one-off or not. Their forecast is that primary and owners’ equivalent rents should come in at +0.32% and 0.30%, respectively, falling back from their levels in July and closer to those seen in June.

Of course, the big question is what the release might mean for the Fed’s decision, which is now just one week away. Currently, markets are still pricing in a decent 32% chance that the Fed will kick off with a 50bp cut. That probability had come down over the previous few sessions, particularly after payrolls was still running at +142k, which isn’t where you’d expect to be in a recession. Moreover, the speakers we did hear from on Friday kept their options open, and other central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Canada haven’t been pursuing 50bp cuts either. So if the Fed did move at the faster pace, that would (so far at least) leave them as the outlier in terms of how quickly they’re easing policy.

While September Fed pricing was little changed, the total amount of rate cuts priced over the next 12 months rose to a new high of 240bps (+8.2bps on the day). From the Fed’s perspective, one trend that’s helping to remove inflationary pressures has been the sharp decline in oil prices over recent weeks. In fact, yesterday saw Brent crude oil (-3.69%) close beneath $70/bbl for the first time since December 2021. That continues a declining trend for oil recently as it was only on July 5 that Brent crude peaked at almost $88/bbl intraday, so we’ve seen a significant move in the last couple of months. The losses have been driven by a range of factors, but fears of a sharper downturn for the global economy have been significant, given the correlation between oil and broader economic demand.

With inflationary pressures subsiding, that in turn helped to lower sovereign bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. For instance, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.7bps) closed at 3.64%, which is its lowest closing level since June 2023 and with another -2.5bps fall this morning after the debate. Similarly, the 2yr yield (-7.4bps) was down to 3.60%, the lowest since September 2022. Unsurprisingly, that happened alongside a clear decline in inflation expectations, and yesterday saw the 10yr inflation swap close at just 2.24%, which is its lowest level since January 2021, before inflation began to spike higher in a serious way that year. Those moves were also echoed in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds were down to just 2.13% by the close, which we haven’t seen since January 05.

In the meantime, equities had a topsy-turvy day, with the S&P 500 recovering from trading -0.5% lower around the European close to end the session +0.45% higher. Tech stocks drove the advance, with the NASDAQ up +0.84% and the Magnificent 7 +1.51% higher, the latter led by a +4.58% rise for Tesla. Oracle (+11.44%) was the best performer in the S&P 500 after reporting stronger growth in its cloud services business the previous evening. However, the gain for the S&P 500 was limited by a slump among energy companies (not helped by the fall in oil prices) and banks in particular. The S&P 500 banks subindex was down -2.88% yesterday, which is its worst daily performance in nearly four weeks. JPMorgan (-5.19%) led this decline, posting its worst day since April after its President said that, given current rate expectations, net interest income next year “will be lower” than estimated by analysts. Other financial bosses were generally also cautious at the industry conference where the JPM news emerged from.

The poor performance of banks came even after a significant update yesterday from the Fed on the Basel III endgame proposal, in a speech from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. Under the re-proposals he outlined, aggregate common equity tier 1 capital requirements for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) would only rise by 9%, rather than 19% as planned before. For large banks that aren’t G-SIBs, they would see a 3-4% increase in capital requirements. With watering down of the original proposals having been largely expected, it was companies’ commentaries that dominated, leaving a more cautious backdrop for US banks.

Finally in Europe, there were losses across the major indices. That included a -0.54% decline for the STOXX 600, marking its 5th decline in the last 6 sessions. The Stoxx banks index (-1.49%) was dragged down along with US peers. Germany’s DAX (-0.96%) underperformed, led by a -11.15% decline for BMW as the automaker warned its profit this year would be impacted by a major recall and weak China demand. Other European indices also retreated, including the FTSE 100 (-0.78%), the CAC 40 (-0.24%).
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for August. Otherwise, we’ll get the UK GDP reading for July. And in the US, a 10yr Treasury auction is also taking place.

Authored by Irina Slav via oilprice.com,

Natural gas and coal remain the sources of over half of U.S. electricity generation despite a massive government-sponsored push to build out wind and solar as replacements for hydrocarbons.

These have indeed grown as a percentage of generation capacity and as a portion of output. And yet, coal and gas remain dominant, supplying 58% of the electricity generated in the U.S. over the first eight months of this year, according to data from LSEG.

This, Reuters’ Gavin Maguire reported, is down from 60.4% during the first eight months of 2021, which might give transition advocates some hope a zero-carbon grid may be possible at some point in the distant future. However, in absolute terms, output from coal and gas-powered plants has gone up, Maguire noted, meaning they actually supplied more electricity to the grid than they did when they accounted for a bigger percentage of total output back in 2021.

The reason, of course, is rising demand and the inflexibility of wind and solar. As weather-dependent energy sources, these cannot provide on-demand electricity unless they are paired with massive batteries that have yet to be built economically. So, the grid relies on the baseload, round-the-clock, on-demand generation from coal and gas power plants.

Population growth is one of the biggest reasons for this increase in electricity demand. Another, more prominently featured in the media, is the rise of artificial intelligence in the IT industry. In June, The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. electricity demand had rebounded after the pandemic lockdowns, with the strongest growth recorded in “a handful of states experiencing rapid development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers.”

Indeed, data centers and the growth in artificial intelligence applications are becoming potentially significant challenges for the energy transition because of the electricity demand they will add to the current total. There are also problems with raw materials for constructing all the data centers necessary to enable even greater utilization of artificial intelligence, which in turn would add more electricity demand that would need to be met by reliable round-the-clock sources.

In this context, it is hardly a surprise that natural gas specifically is enjoying growing demand. The International Energy Agency acknowledged this in a report from December last year. In it, the IEA said that “a significant drop in the price of natural gas, coal plant retirements, low output from wind and hydropower, and high cooling demand in some regions caused the share of gas to increase,” reaching 45% of total generation in the summer months of 2023.

Gas demand is set to increase further as demand for electricity grows, and no amount of new solar and wind capacity additions can really affect this negatively. This might turn into a problem because building new gas-fired power plants is not even remotely as trendy as building solar installations.

Indeed, earlier this year, Upstream reported data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission revealing that only 67 MW of new natural gas generation capacity was added in the first four months of the year. This compared with a much more impressive 5.1 GW in the same period of 2023. Solar additions over the same period stood at 7.9 GW, up from 3.8 GW last year.

In the meantime, it has become harder to build a new natural gas plant because of updated EPA emissions rules that place weighty and expensive requirements on developers, making them think twice about building any new plants. Yet this might yet change because of artificial intelligence.

“Gas is the only cost-efficient energy generation capable of providing the type of 24/7 reliable power required by the big technology companies to power the AI boom,” Doug Kimmelman, founder and senior partner at Energy Capital Partners, the private equity investors, told the Financial Times earlier this year.

“It will not be done without gas,” EQT’s chief executive Toby Rice said as the issue of electricity demand from data centers came into the media spotlight—along with the issue of electrification, which is being promoted as an essential part of the energy transition. Essential as it may be, the electrification of transport, heating, and cooking will add new demand, too—and strain the grid further. This, in turn, would strengthen the growth of hydrocarbon energy as nuclear energy remains out of favor due to its high construction costs.

The situation is something of a vicious circle. There is a push to electrify as many things as possible to reduce emissions. Yet this electrification push adds to electricity demand, which can only partially be satisfied by the preferred sources of the transition camp—wind and solar. Since this demand must be satisfied, ultimately, the electrification push increases demand for natural gas and, to a lesser extent, coal. Ironically, it seems that there cannot be a transition without electrification, but there cannot be electrification without hydrocarbons.

An abandoned Cybertruck in Seattle has become an unlikely tourist destination, with the stranded vehicle’s attention-grabbing appearance turning the vehicle into a de facto landmark.

This stranded truck has become a city landmark now with its own Google Maps pin, a new report from Jalopnik says.

But the fun could be short-lived. The truck was reported abandoned recently and city officials warned the owner via an orange sticker that it would be towed if not moved.

The Cybertruck owner reportedly had no idea his vehicle was viral online, the report says. 

Regardless of how it broke down, it appears leaving it on a busy city street wasn’t the smartest move. The Google Maps pin was quickly flooded with fake reviews, but sadly, Google has since deleted it.

The Jalopnik report says that one Reddit user claimed to have spoken to the owner of the truck.

“I went by there this evening on my way to dinner. The owner was outside and was not happy we were there,” the user wrote.

“He said a kid hit his CT a few weeks ago and was still trying to figure out the insurance to get it fixed. He said people having been harassing him and his wife the past few days and he didn’t understand why.”

He concluded: “We told him his truck was all over Reddit and he got even madder. We left pretty quickly.”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have issued urgent warnings concerning a Salmonella outbreak that has affected 65 individuals across nine states. The outbreak has been traced back to eggs sold by Milo’s Poultry Farms, a company based in Bonduel, Wisconsin, according to a notice released by the FDA on September 6.

The eggs implicated in this outbreak were distributed to retailers and food service locations in Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Milo’s Poultry Farms has contacted customers who purchased the affected eggs, as indicated in the FDA’s notice.

Growing Numbers of Infections

To date, the CDC has reported 65 cases of Salmonella infections stemming from this outbreak, resulting in 24 hospitalizations. While there have been no fatalities, the CDC warns that the true number of infections is likely higher. This is due to the fact that many individuals recover from Salmonella infections without seeking medical attention and therefore are not tested or reported. The cases reported thus far occurred between May 23 and August 10.

A detailed map released by the CDC and FDA highlights that the infections have been spread across California, Utah, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia. Wisconsin and Illinois account for the majority of reported cases, with 42 and 11 cases respectively.

The CDC’s findings suggest that the outbreak might not be limited to the states where cases have already been confirmed. The agency noted that it can take several weeks to determine whether an individual is part of a broader outbreak.

Tracing the Source of Infection

Interviews conducted by state and local public health officials with affected individuals revealed that several had eaten at the same restaurants in the days before they became ill. These findings point to the likelihood that contaminated eggs were served or sold at those locations. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services reported four clusters of illness at restaurants where the recalled eggs were served, reinforcing this theory.

The eggs associated with the outbreak were labeled under the names Milo’s Poultry Farms or Tony’s Fresh Market. The FDA’s recall notice urges all retailers, restaurants, and consumers to discard the recalled eggs immediately. If the eggs were stored without their original packaging and cannot be identified as part of the recall, the FDA recommends they be thrown away as a precaution.

Symptoms and Risks of Salmonella Infection

Salmonella is a type of bacteria that can cause symptoms such as vomiting, nausea, fever, diarrhea, and stomach pain. The majority of people infected with Salmonella recover without medical treatment within a week. However, the infection can be severe for infants, young children, the elderly, those with weakened immune systems, and people taking medications that reduce stomach acidity.

In rare cases, a Salmonella infection can lead to severe complications by spreading to the blood, joints, nervous system, brain, spinal fluid, or urinary tract, potentially resulting in hospitalization or death. Some people may develop reactive arthritis, a condition characterized by joint pain that can last for months or years and may be difficult to treat.

Protective Measures

Both the CDC and FDA stress the importance of following proper food safety practices to avoid Salmonella infection. Consumers are advised to wash their hands, utensils, and food preparation surfaces with hot, soapy water before and after handling raw eggs or raw egg-containing food. The FDA also emphasizes the importance of disposing of any potentially contaminated eggs and urges vigilance for symptoms of Salmonella infection, particularly among vulnerable populations.

As the investigation continues, the public is encouraged to stay informed and heed the guidance of public health authorities to prevent further spread of this outbreak.

There’s never a dull moment when former high-ranking State Department official Victoria Nuland goes on the record for a new tell-all. She’s certainly never shy about broadcasting her role in anti-Moscow covert maneuvering and machinations.

Indeed, many already know her as Victoria-‘Fuck the EU’-Nuland and for essentially running foreign policy in Europe stretching back through the Obama years as then Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, where many of the problems which sparked the disastrous and tragic Russia-Ukraine war were first set in motion.

Exiled Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar recently sat down with her for a new interview published to YouTube earlier this month. The most interesting part of the interview was when he pressed Nuland on widespread reports saying that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson actively encouraged President Zelensky to back out of a potential peace deal with Moscow early after the Feb.2022 Russian invasion. There was a possible chance to end the war and perhaps avoid hundreds of thousands of deaths. But the West apparently convinced Zelensky to fight it out.

But a deal was on the table, and Russia was demanding a full commitment to Ukrainian neutrality regarding NATO. Nuland laid out that it was “relatively late in the game” when Kiev started seeking guidance on the peace deal from Washington and its allies. Zygar said there were statements from foreign leaders privy to the negotiations saying both sides were “really close” to achieving a deal.

“The Ukrainians began asking for advice on where this thing was going, and it became clear to us, clear to us and the Brits, clear to others, that Putin’s main condition was buried in an annex to this document that they were working on. And it included limits on the precise kinds of weapons systems that Ukraine could have after the deal,” Nuland introduced in response.

She went on to describe that Washington didn’t like that the end result of the deal would leave Ukraine “neutered” as a military force while at the same time the same limits weren’t imposed on the Russian military. “People inside Ukraine and people outside Ukraine started asking questions about whether this was a good deal, and it was at that point that it fell apart,” Nuland admitted.

Watch this section of the interview below:

Here’s what she described as her and the Biden administration’s main problem with what was on the table…

By contrast, “there were no similar constraints on Russia,” Nuland said. “Russia wasn’t required to pull back, Russia wasn’t required to have a buffer zone from the Ukrainian border, wasn’t required to have the same constraints on its military facing Ukraine.”

This constitutes significant confirmation that ultimately the US’ prime concern was not for the Ukrainian people, or for achieving peace any way possible. Instead, Washington and NATO’s ultimate goal was to ensure a weakened Russia. What Nuland is essentially saying is that if a deal didn’t ensure a weakened or limited Russian military, then they were willing to crumple it up and go home, while watching Ukraine go up in flames, which is sadly exactly what has happened.

It was 

Wow! Nuland basically admits that Ukraine-Russia peace deal, which was close to being finalized in spring 2022, “fell apart” because US, UK & other Western governments “advised” Zelensky government that it was not “good deal” even though even members of Ukrainian delegation… pic.twitter.com/HPsrpOzQNf

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) September 8, 2024

But no, it was too important for US Empire to pursue the NATOization of Ukraine, and the rest is the bloody, tragic history of the last 2+ years, with nuclear-armed confrontation looming on the horizon, and no end in sight. Another question that remains is: is the mainstream media going to cover Nuland’s blunt admission? 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a diplomatic push toward peace in Ukraine and said he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zekensky agreed that Russia should attend a future peace summit.

“I believe that now is the time to discuss how to arrive at peace from this state of war, indeed at a faster pace,” Scholz said. “There will certainly be a further peace conference, and the president and I agree that it must be one with Russia present.”

Scholz’s comments mark a rare call for peace in Ukraine from a leader of a NATO country. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been consistently calling for an end to the fighting, but he’s been out of step with other NATO and European leaders.

Back in June, Ukraine organized a conference in Switzerland that was billed as a “peace summit,” but Russia was not invited to attend, so it didn’t make any progress toward a ceasefire.

After the Switzerland conference, Zelensky began saying that Russia should attend the next summit, which marked a break from his previous position that he wouldn’t hold any talks with Moscow until a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, which was a non-starter.

Russia expressed interest in holding peace talks, but then Ukraine launched its invasion of Russia’s Kursk oblast on August 6. Following the attack, Russian officials dismissed the idea of peace talks and suggested Zelensky’s earlier comments about inviting Russia to a summit were a bluff.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that he was softening his position, saying Moscow “never refused” to negotiate.

But there’s still no sign that a peace summit involving Russian and Ukrainian officials is being planned, and the US isn’t expected to support any efforts toward peace, at least before the November election.

Throughout the war, the only time a real peace deal was on the table was back in March and April of 2022. But the US and NATO discouraged Ukraine from signing an agreement and promised to support its fight against Russia.