After Overwhelming Pro-Trump Polling, Teamsters Will Not Endorse Any Candidate For First Time Since 1996

After Overwhelming Pro-Trump Polling, Teamsters Will Not Endorse Any Candidate For First Time Since 1996

The Teamsters announced on Wednesday that they will not endorse any candidate for president after a shocking internal poll found that more than half of Teamsters members back former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

Sean O’Brien, the president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, speaking at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July. Vice President Kamala Harris met with Mr. O’Brien and other Teamsters leaders on Monday.Credit…Kenny Holston/The New York Times

One of the largest unions in the country which endorsed Joe Biden in the 2020 election, the Teamsters found that 58% of members polled back Trump vs. 31% for Harris.

This marks the first time since 1996 that the union hasn’t endorsed a candidate.

“For the past year, the Teamsters Union has pledged to conduct the most inclusive, democratic, and transparent Presidential endorsement process in the history of our 121-year-old organization — and today we are delivering on that promise to our members,” said Teamsters President Sean O’Brien in a statement.

Roughly an hour after releasing the poll, the Teamsters announced they would not support any candidate in this election.

“This year, no candidate for President has earned the endorsement of the Teamsters’ International Union.’

Trump met with Teamsters officials in January to court their endorsement, while Harris met Monday with the group’s leadership in Washington D.C.

Developing…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 15:20

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Wall Street Reacts To Today’s 50bps “But No Crisis” Rate Cut

Wall Street Reacts To Today’s 50bps “But No Crisis” Rate Cut

Well, once again the majority – make that the vast majority – of “economisseds” were dead wrong, and as we noted earlier, 105 of 114 economists predicted a 25bps cut… and were wrong. But don’t blame them: it really is the Fed’s fault – again – because while odds of a 50bps rate cut were only 10% as the Fed entered its “blackout period”, these surged after an unprecedented media leak campaign in the past week pushed 50bps odds to 70% (and yes, we can now confirm that Powell used Nick “Nikileaks” Timiraos not once but twice in the past few days to ease the blow of the 50bps cut), which brought us to today, when the Fed shocked with a 50bps rate cut, and slashed its expectations for the 2025 rate cut…

… even though the conditions from June until September were barely changed:

  • 2025 GDP forecast unchanged
  • 2025 unemployment rate up just a fraction, from 4.2% to 4.4%
  • 2025 core PCE dip tiny from 2.3% to 2.2%

And somehow that justified the FOMC predicting an additional 3 rates cuts from June to September and a whopping 4 additional rate cuts in 2025!!!

Just don’t call it political.

In any case, here is a snapshot of some of the kneejerk Wall Street reactions to today’s Fed rate cut, which as the Fed itself now admits, was far behind the curve as the economy was clearly in far worse shape than the Fed dared admit.

Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist

“This was a huge victory for Jay Powell”

Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics:

“The first question in Powell’s presser was what information caused the FOMC to opt for the larger cut, and Powell mentioned the Beige Book. We’ve long thought Powell gives strong consideration to the anecdotal information in the Beige Book — and the latest version was extremely downbeat. The Beige Book also was the key piece of information that led to Powell’s’ dovish pivot last December.”

More from Bloomberg Economics:

“The FOMC concluded one of its most suspenseful meetings ever by cutting rates 50 basis points, while cautioning markets that this type of jumbo cut won’t be the norm. The updated dot plot suggests a gradual path of rate cuts going forward, suggesting the Fed sees the 50-bp move as a preemptive one that will be enough to stabilize the labor market. The median participant still sees real GDP growing at a solid pace of 2% this year.

“In our view, the 50-bp cut was the right move with the labor market clearly weakening. If the economy is indeed heading toward a soft landing, the unemployment rate will likely stabilize at 4.4% as the Fed foresees. We think this move has increased the chance of that outcome.

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence:

“The 2024 median dot shows another 50 bps of cuts by year-end, but there’s a large minority thinking only one further cut might be needed. Market pricing hasn’t shifted toward the risk of fewer cuts this year. Chair Powell’s comments on this score may cause this pricing to move if he’s not as dovish as the median dots suggest.”

“The long-end dots are interesting, and over time the steepening of the curve may come in. The long end’s modest selloff reflects the market’s view that inflation might increase as the Fed cuts so aggressively.

“We’re not convinced this will turn into a trend, and see bull steepening continuing further. The 2025 dots moving lower by 75 bps wasn’t a shock at this point: The question is, will the market believe 2.75-3% terminal floor, or price for more?”

Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Chief Economist

“There’s more work to be done — and quickly. We foresee the Fed needing to continue to rapidly lower interest rates to underwrite a soft-landing – which is our baseline forecast.”

Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments

“Stocks love a good Fed put. I think the Fed may have jumped the gun at 50 bps. The economy is slowing but still strong. Productivity robust and unit labor costs moderate. Unemployment may indeed rise but we are not seeing layoffs—JOLTs still a very large number, well above pre-pandemic levels. My criticism of the Fed has been a myopic focus on backward looking data. This feels like that. A single weak employment report and here we are.”

Eric Orenstein, senior director at Fitch Ratings

“The Fed’s 50bp rate cut likely adds downward momentum for mortgage rates, which have already come down materially since May as treasuries have rallied. While not enough for a full scale refi boom, an average 30-year rate approaching 6% does open up a meaningful slice of the market for refinancing. Mortgage originators stand to benefit, and will likely find the toughest times already behind them.”

Dean Baker, Center for Economic & Policy Research

“It is good that the Fed has now recognized the weakening of the labor market and responded with an aggressive cut. Given there is almost no risk of rekindling inflation, the greater boost to the labor market is largely costless. Also, it will help to spur the housing market where millions of people have put off selling homes because of high mortgage rates.”

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management:

“Despite the skepticism around economic need for an aggressive 50 bps cut, markets can and should only celebrate today’s move — and will continue to celebrate over coming months. We have a Fed that will go to historic lengths to avoid a hard landing. Recession, what recession?”

Maxine Waters, House Democrat and Court Jester:

“I am pleased that the Fed has not only remained independent, but shown the importance of remaining independent as it followed the data and not politics.”

Last – and least – here is Elizabeth Warren, Indian shaman of the Cherokee tribe

“This cut in interest rates is yet another acknowledgement that Powell waited too long to reduce rates. The Fed has finally changed course to follow its dual mandate on prices and jobs. Lower rates mean relief for consumers and aspiring homeowners. More rates cuts are needed.”

d

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 15:12

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Army Sends 130 Troops, Missile Systems To Remote Alaskan Island For ‘Russia Threat’

Army Sends 130 Troops, Missile Systems To Remote Alaskan Island For ‘Russia Threat’

The Pentagon has taken the rare step of deploying US Army ground forces to an Alaskan island on fears that Russian and Chinese warships are coming closer and closer to America’s shores.

Some 130 soldiers have been sent to an uninhabited, remote island in the Aleutian chain of western Alaska following a series of Russian and Chinese military assets being spotted of the coast, including warplanes. 

US Army/Task & Purpose: Soldiers with Alpha Battery, 5th Battalion, 3rd Field Artillery Regiment (Long Range Fires Battalion), 1st Multi-Domain Task Force set up a M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System on Shemya Island on Sept. 12, 2024. 

For example, just the past week saw a grouping consisting of 8 Russian planes and four navy vessels come close to Alaska. Moscow and Beijing recently ordered stepped-up joint patrols and naval drills in the Pacific region.

It’s not the first time that we’ve seen the Russians and the Chinese flying, you know, in the vicinity, and that’s something that we obviously closely monitor, and it’s also something that we’re prepared to respond to,” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder described.

The island in question where US troops are newly deployed is called Shemya Island, which lies some 1,200 miles southwest of Anchorage.

The Army is calling it a “force projection operation” which began on Sept.12.

Below is the latest press release from the North American Aerospace Defense Command complaining of recent incursions in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) off Alaska:

At least two High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) have been placed on the island, which has a US Air Force air station dating back to WWII.

According to more background on the location:

Shemya Island is home to the COBRA DANE radar system, operated by the United States Space Force (previously the Air Force oversaw it), that is used for tracking ballistic missiles and similar objects. It is also home to an air station.

The Aleutian Islands were also a battleground during World War II, with the Japanese military seizing several of the islands before the United States retook them. 

Already this year, Russian planes have buzzed the ADIZ off Alaska some 25 times, according to US defense sources. At this rate, a new record will be set by year’s end.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 15:05

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Trump Or Harris: Corporate Tax Winners And Losers

Trump Or Harris: Corporate Tax Winners And Losers

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Not surprisingly, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are taking opposite approaches to modifying the corporate tax code. If enacted, both proposals would significantly impact corporate profits and, thus, share prices. Currently, the plans are only campaign promises. History repeatedly reminds us that many political promises are meant to drum up votes.

Read my lips, no new taxes” – George H.W. Bush 1988.

Predicting whether Trump or Harris will be the next president is challenging. Moreover, even if you know who will win, it’s even trickier to assess which legislation they will focus on and which bills can get through Congress.

Markets handicap unknown scenarios all the time. In some cases, stock prices can move violently as the odds of an event occurring change. Since corporate taxes may be the most significant short-term political factor affecting stock prices, it’s worth understanding what both candidates propose, allowing us to try and stay a step ahead of the market handicappers.

Furthermore, with the recent history of Donald Trump’s 2017 corporate tax cuts, we quantify which companies are best suited to take advantage of or be penalized by a change to the tax code.

Current Corporate Tax Code And History

The following graph charts the Federal corporate tax rate and the effective tax rate companies have actually paid since World War II. Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) reduced tax rates from 35% to 21%. The only other significant cut in America’s history of corporate taxes was in 1986, when President Reagan reduced them from 46% to 34%.

Like personal taxes, corporations have many loopholes. Thus, the effective tax rate can vary widely by company. Evaluating how tax rates affect corporate bottom lines in the aggregate is important but can be critical at a company level.

This article only addresses the proposals from the point of view of corporate profits. We do not opine on how they could impact the deficit or economy.

Donald Trump’s Tax Proposals

Trump’s current tax proposal calls for a tax reduction for corporations from 21% to 15%. However, the reduction would solely be for companies that make their products in America. Companies that “outsource, offshore or replace American workers” will not be eligible.

What’s unclear is whether companies can divide their revenue for tax purposes based on where goods are manufactured. Furthermore, how will companies providing services be taxed?

Also for consideration is the “Bonus Depreciation” tax break from the 2017 TCJA. The legislation allowed companies to depreciate 100% of equipment purchases in the year it was acquired. Previously, they could only write down the value of equipment over time according to its useful life.

The Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) analyzed the impact of the accelerated depreciation rule on 25 of the biggest beneficiaries (LINK). They write:

The federal statutory corporate income tax rate is 21 percent, which means that if corporations enjoyed no special breaks or loopholes at all, they would pay 21 percent of their profits in taxes. As a group these corporations used many kinds of tax breaks to drive their effective federal income tax rate down to 12.2 percent. For the whole group of companies, accelerated depreciation accounts for 86 percent of those tax breaks.

Some corporations have used accelerated depreciation to drive their effective tax rates down to single digits during this five-year period. These include Verizon, Amazon, Walt Disney, Con Edison, General Motors, Dish Network, and others.

While the accelerated depreciation has been a boon to some companies, the amount a company can depreciate declines over time. In 2024, a company can only depreciate 60% of equipment costs versus 100% from 2018 to 2022. Each year forward, the amount drops by 20%. In 2027 and beyond, it will be phased out unless it’s extended.

Kamala Harris’s Tax Proposals

Harris’s proposal is more straightforward to analyze. She supports raising the corporate tax rate to 28% for all companies. In addition, she would like to increase the corporate stock buyback tax from 1% to 4%.

Under her plan, companies would see a 7% increase in tax rates which essentially claws back half of Trump’s 2017 TCJA tax legislation.

Congress ultimately has the power to change tax rates. Ergo, whether it is Trump or Harris, it will be hard to change the tax code if one of the two houses of Congress is the opposing political party. The chart below from Gavekal Research shows the possibilities.

Analyzing The S&P 500 Companies

With some background on the candidate’s proposals, we now evaluate the constituents of the S&P 500 to assess the impact of the Trump tax cut. The analysis helps gauge which stocks are most at risk of tax hikes or could benefit from further tax reductions.

Our analysis is based on corporate tax data from 2010 to current for the 503 current S&P 500 stocks. To help improve the quality of the analysis, we only assessed companies with at least four years of earnings data before the Trump tax cuts and six years afterward. Further, we avoided companies with volatile earnings. That criteria narrowed the list to 306 companies.

Of this subset of the S&P 500, the average tax rate before the tax cut was 26.74%. Since then, it has been 17.37%. Almost 90% of the companies saw their effective tax rates decline. On average, the 306 companies’ earnings were 9.36% greater than they would have been.

We summarize the data for you because there are over three hundred companies.

The following table organizes the data by sector. Utilities were the apparent biggest beneficiary of tax cuts. This was partly from the bonus depreciation and recent tax incentives to promote green energy.  

On the other side of the coin is real estate. The cut was not meaningful because these companies tend to pay very little taxes. As shown, the rest of the sectors tended to gravitate around the average. 

The following table shows the largest stocks by market cap. We left out five stocks due to earnings volatility.

Who Pays If The Harris Plan Is Law

The following table lists the companies that saw an improvement of at least 20% to their bottom lines due to the 2017 change in the tax code. Some of these stocks may be at most risk if Harris’s tax plan to boost rates to 28% passes. Those with effective tax rates closer to 28% may be the least affected.

Part of the Harris plan is to raise the buyback tax rate from 1% to 4%. Doing so will weigh on the bottom lines of those perpetually buying back significant amounts of shares. Furthermore, some of these companies may find it more advantageous to increase their dividends instead of buybacks.

The following graph from Uptrends shows the top ten buyback programs of 2024. Clearly, Apple, META, and Google may have the most to lose from the potential tax increase.

Who Wins If Trump’s Plan Is Enacted

Conversely, those with the highest effective taxes and domestic production capabilities may benefit the most. Given that we do not have data on production facilities, we can only share the companies with the highest effective post-2018 tax rates.

In addition to the potential tax cut, we must consider any changes to the bonus depreciation roll-off schedule. Trump could try to bring back the 100% depreciation in year one or stop the bonus depreciation percentage from declining.  

To help us in this endeavor, we share the following table from ITEP with the biggest beneficiaries of the bonus deprecation.

Summary

As we sit here today and assess the stock market and individual stocks from a political perspective, it appears a Trump victory may provide investors with more potential upside. We are solely basing the argument on their respective tax cut proposals.  

The graph above shows that the S&P 500 rocketed by 35% in the two months following the passage of the legislation. Furthermore, the market rose before the legislation as investors gained confidence the legislation would pass Congress.

One can argue the gains were short-lived, as the market gave up its gains shortly after. Contrarily, higher corporate profits due to lower tax rates are an important factor driving the market significantly higher since 2017.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 14:45

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Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell To Explain What Exactly What He Saw That Prompted A Crisis-Level Rate-Cut

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell To Explain What Exactly What He Saw That Prompted A Crisis-Level Rate-Cut

Well, now Fed Chair Powell has some ‘splaining to do…

While economists were heavily weighted towards a 25bps cut (just nine forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey of 113 (!) economists predicted 50), traders were almost all-in on the idea of a 50bps cut today (odds had sunk intraday from around 70%)… so what was it ‘economically’ that prompted the 50bps!!

Powell pissed a lot of people off (on one side or the other)…

What was it that Powell and his pals saw that prompted them to slash rates by 50bps?

Stocks and home-prices are at record highs, inflation’s path lower has stalled, and the latest labor market data was anything but clearly supportive of a cut (let alone a 50bps cut).

Could it be that The Fed is not as ‘apolitical’ as it proclaims?

There’s also the demands of Senator Elizabeth Warren who urged for a 75bps cut… to help Kamala?

Cue Republicans questioning The Fed’s crisis-level rate-cut just two-months out from the election?

Paging Arthur Burns…

…and of course, if this occurs, guess who will get the blame when he wins in November!

Good luck Mr.Powell (said in a James Bond villain tone) as you walk this tight-rope.

Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 14:25

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‘Apolitical’ Fed Slashes Rates By 50bps With Stocks & Home-Prices At Record Highs

‘Apolitical’ Fed Slashes Rates By 50bps With Stocks & Home-Prices At Record Highs

Tl; dr: Despite only 9 of 113 economists surveyed expecting a 50bps rate-cut, Powell and his pals did it. At the same time they slashed their ‘DOTS’ expectations for rates, despite not adjust growth expectations, barely adjust unemployment, and hoping for lower inflation.

And all this two months before the election… amazing!

Paging Arthur Burns…

…and of course, if this occurs, guess who will get the blame when he wins in November!

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on July 31st, a lot has happened – growth scares, Jackson Hole, weak data, strong data, and endless FedSpeak – but most notably, the market has practically convinced itself that it needs 50bps of cuts but a recession is not imminent. Bonds and Gold have dramatically outperformed while oil has been a big loser (along with the dollar)…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds are in worlds of their own since the last FOMC meeting with the former unchanged (no recession) while the latter has seen yields puke 40-50bps (recession)…

Source: Bloomberg

US Macro data has surprised to the upside dramatically since the last FOMC (perfect time to cut rates?)

Source: Bloomberg

And both growth and inflation data has surprised to the upside (screw the inflation data, we’re cutting!!)

Source: Bloomberg

Overall rate-cut expectations have soared since the last FOMC meeting (adding 60bps of cuts to expectations to the end of 2025), with a heavy waiting to 2024 cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before we get to the actual decision, we note that the odds of a 50bps cut today had drifted lower intraday (to 57% from 75%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Today will be not just about the size of the cut, but most focus will be on the messaging for what happens next, especially given the new DOTS, which will likely adjust dramatically more dovish (to catch down to the market’s expectation)….

Source: Bloomberg

At the last refresh of the SEP (dot-plot), 4 FOMC members expected no rate-cuts in 2024, 7 members expected 1 rate-cut in 2024, 8 members expected 2 rate-cuts.

So what did The Fed do?

Wow! The economy is so great, it needs an crisis-level rate cut 2 months before the election

  • Federal Open Market Committee votes 11 to 1 to lower benchmark rate by 50 basis points to target range of 4.75%-5.0%, the first rate cut in more than four years

  • Fed governor Miki Bowman dissented in favor of a smaller 25 bps cut. It’s the first dissent by a governor since 2005.

  • Statement adds language to say the committee is “strongly committed to supporting maximum employment” in addition to returning inflation to its 2% goal

  • Statement says that “in considering additional adjustments” to rates, officials will assess incoming data, evolving outlook and balance of risks

  • Fed tweaks language to note job gains “have slowed;” says inflation “has made further progress toward the committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated”

The Fed Dots tumbled to meet market expectations, with 2024’s median dot slashed from 5.125% to 4.375%, 2025 cut from 4.125% to 3.375%, and 2026 from 3.125% to 2.875%…

Nine of 19 officials penciled in 75 basis points of cuts or less…

Close up on 2024 and 2025 – The Fed members literally abandoned all of June’s expectations…

But amid that massive easing adjustment in the dots, The Fed did not change its 2025 GDP forecast at all, it sees 2025 unemployment up just a fraction, from 4.2% to 4.4% and 2025 core PCE dip from 2.3% to 2.2%…

… and that justifies the FOMC predicting an additional 3 rates cuts from June to September…

Read the full FOMC Statement red-line below:

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 14:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/YDNFjZK Tyler Durden

The Fed: 0 To 100 In 3 Meetings?

The Fed: 0 To 100 In 3 Meetings?

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

There is no doubt the Fed is driving markets right now.

The only question remains, is are they driving an EV (fast acceleration) or a traditional ICE vehicle (slower off the line but builds up speed nicely).

Before exploring our take on the various scenarios (which we covered a bit in this weekend’s Great Debates T-Report) it is a good time to remind everyone in the New York area that Academy’s Geopolitical Roundtable (with a Macro and Credit focus) is fast approaching.  Please register here for the event on Thursday October 10th from 5:30 to 7:30 pm at Bobby Vans (230 Park Ave location) for drinks and heavy Hors D’oeuvres. With General (ret.) Spider Marks leading the engagement on the Geopolitical side. I will chime in on some macro and credit, along with our debt capital markets, syndicate and corporate bond sales and trading teams! Should be informative and a good way to catch up on the progress Academy has made in the space over the past year. Please do register because while the space is comfortable it is limited and the initial response has been strong.

Thanks, now back to the main event.

40% probability of 25 bps.

If the Fed stuck to their messaging and was truly data dependent they would only go 25 bps, but they seem to be indicating and getting pushed by the market to go 50).

  • 45% chance of a “dovish” 25.  To offset the disappointment in “only” going 25 bps, the dots would become more aggressive than the last meeting. Hints that 50 were coming would come out in the dots, the announcement and presser. Possibly see even one dissent, arguing for 50 bps. Bonds and stocks wind up not doing a whole lot at the end of the day, unless the “dovish” message hits very loud and very clearly.

  • 50% chance of a “neutral” 25. No dissents. Messaging about remaining “data dependent”. Some expression of concern about the potential to stoke inflation. The dots, while coming in more aggressive than the last time, push back significantly on the terminal rate and when we get there. Mild selling in bonds and stocks.

  • 5% chance of a “hawkish” 25. To be honest, 5% chance seems too much, as it is difficult to imagine, regardless of what is delivered in the announcement and the dots, that Powell could remain hawkish the entire press conference. It is not his nature. Stocks and bonds would both sell off, meaningfully, but I am not worried about this scenario.

60% probability of 50 bps.

The markets are steering them in this direction. I thought they should go 25 in July, so I support 50, but it doesn’t seem in line with much of their official messaging. Ultimately 50 would tell us to listen to a certain reporter at the WSJ (and if they don’t go 50, his reports will become less of a fixation).

  • 25% chance of a “dovish” 50.  In addition to going 50 at this meeting, the dots would become much more aggressive. Not just for this year, but for next year as well. Powell might have to come across strongly than the terminal rate is “well known” (I don’t think it is) and that they are committed to getting there now that they’ve started, UNLESS, the data stops them. Basically, the Fed would make it clear they are going with a “Punch It, Margaret!” moment. Bonds and stocks would rally hard! Stops would get taken out on the short side and the stage would be set for an extremely strong rally in the coming days as every bear gets forced out or capitulates.

  • 40% chance of a “neutral” 50. I think this is trickier to navigate as the market likes “dovish” or “hawkish” and is less keen on finding “neutrality” so whatever is said, done, or printed, will likely be interpreted as either hawkish or dovish, at least initially. But if they can walk the tightrope, of data dependence, a balance of risks, etc., they can maybe convince the market they slow down appreciably after the first 50 bps. In the end I don’t think the market will listen (after all they just jumped/pushed into 50). Some initial wavering in stocks and bonds, but then “rally mode”. While the rally won’t be quite as strong as a “dovish 50” and will take more time to settle in, you would not want to miss this rally.

  • 35% chance of a “hawkish” 25. They will try and balance the 50 bps with a LOT of talk about data dependency, the risks of inflation resurging, and will use the dots to aggressively signal the market is far ahead of itself. I suspect that if the Fed goes 50, there is a 75% chance that this is the message they think they deliver, but unless don’t very aggressively and overtly, most attempts will fall into the “neutral” take, which will eventually be upgraded to the “dovish” take, as the markets will now KNOW that the Fed can be pushed into faster cuts than their own messaging sends. Stocks and bonds sell off, maybe for a day or two, then we can start watching the data and earnings

With a lot already priced in, I think stocks and bonds have more downside risk than upside, though, the risk of a big move, seems to be skewed more heavily to the upside, based on the probabilities above.

I will be most closely watching:

  • Any dissent. That would be their strongest tool in the announcement to present either a dovish 25 or hawkish 50.

  • The dots in 2025 and beyond. They should move to 100 bps for this year, but the question is, where do they set the terminal rate and how long do they think it will take to get there? With the market pricing in sub 3% by the July 2025 meeting, there is a LOT of potential disappoint here, if the Fed uses uncertainty about the terminal rate both in the dots and the press conference (I think they should and will do that). I just think, that in a day or two, even if they are successful, the market will fixate on the fact that they could push them to 50.

  • Data dependency and balance of risks in the press conference. Do they try and return some semblance of “balanced” risk? Probably not much, or more precisely, probably not too effectively, even if Powell tries, but the market could be disappointed on this front (the last bits of data haven’t been too bad, and Atlanta GDP now just got back to 3%, from 2% just a few weeks ago).

As always, we will send our interpretation of “what the heck just happened” after the press conference, and suspect that we will have several big moves and reverses today, as the market seems more divided on possible outcomes than we’ve seen in some time (and the tools at the Fed’s disposal, spread over the entire hour or so, from the time of the announcement, the dots, until the end of the presser!

Good luck, I re-iterate my wish that they Fed did this at 10 am EST, so we had less time to second guess ourselves, and I highly encourage those in the New York area to check out (and register) for the Geopolitical (with Credit and Macro) roundtable on the 10th!

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 13:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/MgbT2il Tyler Durden

It’s Plan B, Not Plan Stupid

At some point early in 2011, I received a frantic phone call from a woman who was terrified that then-President Obama was going to “close the borders”.

She had apparently been reading some pretty dark forums on the Internet which had convinced her that Obama was going to prevent all US citizens from leaving the country… and she was intent on getting out of the country before that happened.

I spent the first part of our call trying to disabuse her of the rumor. While I acknowledge that anything is possible, I’m also a data-driven person… and there was simply zero credible evidence to suggest that President Obama was going to restrict all traffic into and out of the United States.

But, still, she wouldn’t listen. So I asked her what she wanted to do. She told me that she intended to pick up her entire life and move to Uruguay within the next 48 hours.

Well. Uruguay is a nice enough country. I lived there many years ago for a bit— it’s quiet, pastoral, and, well, there’s absolutely nothing going on. Which is fine. Some people like it that way.

Problem is, the woman I was speaking to had never been to Uruguay. In fact she had never even left the United States before. She didn’t even have a passport.

Not to mention she didn’t speak Spanish, barely knew the first thing about Uruguay, and didn’t know anyone living there.

Worst of all, she was planning on bringing her elderly mother who needed specialized care… without the first idea of how her mother would even be able to obtain the right medication in a foreign country.

But in her mind, these were all trivial concerns. Her fear of Obama closing the borders was the biggest threat in her life, and she had to act quickly.

I was pretty emphatic on the phone and told her that she was would be making the biggest mistake of her life. Fortunately, in the end, reason prevailed, and she didn’t go.

None of this is a knock on her; I’m sure that under normal circumstances she’s a perfectly intelligent person. But that phone call was a pretty stark case study in how powerful certain emotions can be.

Love (or at least infatuation), for better or worse, is one emotion that can make us do some completely irrational things… especially when we’re young and naive.

Hope is another overpowering emotion that can make people ignore obvious risks and dangers.

But perhaps none is more overwhelming than fear. Fear can paralyze us. It can make us lose all sense of reason. Our primate fight-or-flight response kicks in, and the human brain seems to turn off completely.

And given the sheer volume of gargantuan, looming risks in the world right now, it’s pretty easy to feel a certain degree of fear.

For starters, there’s been a lot of talk of “World War III” brewing. And, if we’re intellectually honest, this isn’t crazy. Between conflicts in the Middle East, growing tensions with Iran and China, the never-ending war in Ukraine (including Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons), etc., the prospect of a wider global war breaking out is completely reasonable.

The US national debt is another enormous problem— and not just for America, but for most of the world. It’s extremely likely to result in significant inflation, global economic hardship, and the loss of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Add to that the border crisis, rising crime, and economic malaise— all of which apply to both the United States and much of Europe.

And I doubt the current state of the US Presidential election, not to mention TWO assassination attempts, is making anyone feel any less fearful.

This is why we’ve been talking about the concept of a Plan B for over 15 years.

But the key is taking rational, sensible steps that put you in a position of strength, no matter what may or may not happen next.

There’s no magic pill, no single action that will solve every problem or eliminate all risk. But there are clear, common-sense approaches.

If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, for example, it’s highly likely that taxes will increase. They literally don’t have to do anything, and the 2017 tax cuts will expire next year.

That means more money out of everyone’s pockets going to feed a government beast that wastes taxpayer money on the most insane ways imaginable.

They’ve spent billions of dollars to build a whopping SEVEN electric vehicle charging stations. TENS of billions have been given away to their sworn enemies in Iran and Afghanistan. Hundreds of billions were spent to pay people to stay home and NOT work.

This is how they spend your hard-earned money. Yet if you plan head, there are plenty of completely legal ways to reduce your tax burden, now and in the future.

Inflation is another looming problem, especially with at least $22 trillion in new debt expected over the next 5-10 years.

But there are ways to mitigate inflation’s impact as well. Real assets are trading at historically low valuations (and we’ve been especially bullish on the prospects of gold mining companies, which are incredibly cheap at the moment).

Our premium subscribers also hear all about sensible asset protection strategies, because in a struggling economy, frivolous lawsuits become more common risk.

And with general security threats like rising crime and the possibility of war, it makes sense to have a second residency.

That doesn’t necessarily mean you need to buy a house abroad. But going through the process of obtaining legal residency in a safe, peaceful country, far removed from these issues, is a smart move.

I have a close friend who recently obtained legal residency in New Zealand. His reasoning is that if World War III breaks out and the nukes start flying, that’s where he would want to be.

His reasoning is sound. But notice that he’s not picking up his life tomorrow morning, abandoning all caution, and heading to a new place that he doesn’t know.

He’s traveled to New Zealand many times. He already has a small network. He knows where he would live. He has already filed the paperwork to obtain residency.

So if the proverbial ever hits the fan, he’ll already all the basics in place. If not, he still has residency in a country that he enjoys spending time. There’s not much downside to his plan.

The same thinking applies to second passports.

For example, you might be surprised to find you’re already eligible for a second passport through ancestry.

There’s rarely* any downside to obtaining a second passport. Think of it like fire insurance on your home— you might never need it. But you’ll be damn glad you have one in case the need ever arises.

And in many cases, a second passport you obtain today can also be passed down to your children and grandchildren, so that future generations can obtain the same benefit for decades to come.

But remember the key to a Plan B is staying rational and not letting fear take hold. Making fear-based Plan B decisions is almost always a colossal waste of time and money.

As an example, I recently found out that there are some people on the Internet selling Pakistani citizenship. And when I heard about this initially I thought it was a joke. It’s not.

There are far more legitimate places in the world where one can obtain citizenship in exchange for a financial investment in the country, so-called “Economic Citizenship” or “Citizenship Investment Programs” (CIPs).

St. Kitts, as well as several other Caribbean nations, are famous for their citizenship by investment programs, which start around $250,000 these days.

But if that’s way too much money for you, and you don’t qualify for citizenship by descent, the most rational approach is to pursue legal residency. It’s a perfectly reasonable option.

In places like Mexico, Costa Rica, or, yes, even Uruguay, residency costs almost nothing.

There are far more legitimate places in the world where one can obtain citizenship in exchange for a financial investment in the country, so-called “Economic Citizenship” or “Citizenship Investment Programs” (CIPs).

St. Kitts, as well as several other Caribbean nations, are famous for their citizenship by investment programs, which start around $250,000 these days.

But if that’s way too much money for you, and you don’t qualify for citizenship by descent, the most rational approach is to pursue legal residency. It’s a perfectly reasonable option.

In places like Mexico, Costa Rica, or, yes, even Uruguay, residency costs almost nothing.But I’m sure some people are fearful enough right now that obtaining a Pakistani passport seems like a good idea.

Well, a few paragraphs earlier I wrote that there’s rarely* any downside to obtaining a second passport. Note the asterisk. Pakistani citizenship is one of the few exceptions where there actually is downside.

Sure, for an EXTREMELY limited group of people, Pakistani citizenship might make sense. If your dream is to move to Karachi, then, great, go for it.

But for the vast majority of people, paying $20,000 for a Pakistani passport is— AT BEST— a total waste of money.

If you’re a US citizen, then most likely you’ll end up getting a knock at the door from the Department of Homeland Security. They’ll assume you’ve been radicalized and are operating some sleeper cell, so you and your family will probably end up on some terrorist watch list.

As a matter of fact, the latest moron who tried to kill Donald Trump this week had apparently planned to purchase Pakistani passports in some bizarre plot to recruit people from the Middle East to fight against Russia for Ukraine.

In a separate incident, a Pakistani national had traveled to Iran, before heading to the US, where he tried to hire hitmen to kill Trump… but ended up in an FBI sting.

Suffice it to say, red flags go up around Pakistani passports. This is not a country where most people should want to obtain a second passport, and there’s zero upside in investing a single dollar or minute of your time on such a terrible idea.

Remember, the name of the game is Plan B. Not Plan Stupid.

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Explosives Reported Near Trump Rally On Long Island As Police Hunt For Suspect

Explosives Reported Near Trump Rally On Long Island As Police Hunt For Suspect

Police in Nassau County, New York are investigating a possible security breach after a reported discovery of explosives near the site of former President Donald Trump’s rally on Long Island, just hours before his scheduled speech Wednesday evening.

Sources within the Nassau County Police Department allegedly told One America News Network (OANN) journalist James Lalino that officers conducting a routine K9 sweep discovered an explosive device in a vehicle parked near the rally venue. The report comes just three days after a would-be assassin was arrested at Trump’s Palm Beach golf club.

According to the Daily Mail, the driver of the car with explosives ran into the woods. According to Lalino’s report on X, the suspect bolted from the car, leaving law enforcement scrambling to locate him.

No one saw if he had anything on him, they just saw him take off running,” one source reportedly told Lalino. “A lot of cars are now parking, they’re lining up on Hempstead Turnpike, just parking on the grass. Even over at Eisenhower Park, they’re just parking over there.”

Supporters of Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump wait for the start of his campaign rally at Nassau

The bomb scare comes as Trump continues to face heightened security threats. He has largely shifted to indoor venues since an attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, when a would-be attacker was apprehended before getting close to the former president.

Trump has largely moved to indoor events since the first attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. 

He was shot in the right ear by would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks as shots rang out at his mid-summer rally. 

Two months later, a gunman pointed an AK-47 at the former president while he was playing at the Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach on Sunday just after 1pm. 

The Republican nominee was rushed to safety as Secret Service agents opened fire on the suspect who had a GoPro camera and backpack, along with his rife. -Daily Mail

If confirmed, the presence of explosives at Wednesday’s event would mark a chilling escalation in the threats surrounding Trump’s public appearances as he continues to campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination. Law enforcement officials have not yet released an official statement, but the incident has put the rally site on high alert.

Nassau County police are reportedly working to secure the area while the search for the suspect continues.

Developing…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 10:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/PQHKdWv Tyler Durden

WTI Holds Gains As ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom After Big Draw At Cushing Hub

WTI Holds Gains As ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom After Big Draw At Cushing Hub

oil prices continued their recent rally off three-year lows this morning (rebounding from weakness overnight following the unexpected crude build reported by API) ahead of today’s FOMC decision and pushed higher by re-awoken geopolitical risk premium after Israel’s pager-op on Hezbollah prompted the start of retaliations.

The weak preliminary inventory data from API and recent trends in product spreads are adding to concerns about demand in the US, said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA.

“If you don’t need the product, you don’t need the crude oil to make the product,” Yawger said.

“That is the most important math in energy — everything else is noise.”

The big question is will the official US crude stockpile data confirm API’s.

API

  • Crude +1.96MM (Exp. -0.5MM)

  • Cushing -1.4MM

  • Gasoline +2.34MM

  • Distillates +2.3MM

DOE

  • Crude -1.63MM (Exp. -0.5MM)

  • Cushing -1.979MM – biggest draw since Jan

  • Gasoline +69k

  • Distillates +125k

The official data contradicted API with a 1.63mm barrel draw and Cushing saw stockpiles tumble 1.979mm barrels – the biggest draw since January…

Source: Bloomberg

The big draw at Cushing pushed stockpiles near ‘tank bottoms’…

Source: Bloomberg

Total crude stocks (ex-SPR) dropped to their lowest in a year as the battle between physical-demand and paper-punting continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Who could have seen that coming?

The Biden admin added 655k barrels to the SPR last week…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production dipped to 132.mm barrels…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI had bounced back above $71 ahead of the official data.

Crude remains markedly lower year-to-date, reflecting China’s dour demand outlook and plans by OPEC+ to eventually restore some shuttered output. The headwinds have been partially countered by supply disruptions in Libya and the US and prospects for monetary easing, with investors expecting the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

In the Middle East, Iran-backed Hezbollah accused Israel of orchestrating an attack in Lebanon involving the explosion of pagers, which left a number of people dead and wounded thousands. The incident raised fears of an all-out war in the region, and buoyed prices on Tuesday.

Yet on the demand side, lackluster consumption has seen some refineries in Europe reduce processing rates. Meanwhile in China, the world’s largest oil-importing nation, poor margins have led to the bankruptcy of two small plants.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/18/2024 – 10:38

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lSnLhaY Tyler Durden