Month: September 2024

The 14-year-old boy accused of carrying out a deadly mass shooting at a Georgia high school earlier this month had a troubling history that raised red flags last year—but law enforcement didn’t act. Newly released bodycam footage shows Colt Gray, then 13, being questioned by Jackson County deputies in 2023 after they traced online threats of a school shooting to his family’s former address.

Colt’s father, Colin Gray, acknowledged that his son was an avid gamer who used the popular platform Discord, where the threats were posted. “He plays video games all the time,” Colin told deputies, adding that his son had access to guns in their home, though he insisted the firearms were unloaded. “We do a lot of shooting. We do a lot of deer hunting,” he said, showing a picture of Colt with blood on his face after his first deer kill, the Epoch Times reports.

Despite being informed of the threats, deputies left after Colt denied making them. “I have no choice but to take you at your word,” one deputy said, warning, “if I find out otherwise, it’s a different story.”

That “different story” unfolded in a horrifying way on September 4th, when Colt entered Apalachee High School and opened fire, killing four people—including two students—and wounding more than a dozen others, according to court documents. Authorities say Colt surrendered to school resource officers shortly after the shooting began, thanks to a new panic button system worn by teachers that alerted law enforcement.

Colt now faces four counts of felony murder, with more charges expected. His father, Colin, has also been charged for allegedly providing Colt with the gun used in the attack—the first time a parent in Georgia has faced such charges in connection with a school shooting.

At initial court appearances, both father and son were ordered to remain in custody. No pleas have been entered yet.

The FBI has since confirmed it received anonymous tips about a possible school shooting in Georgia but could not substantiate the claims at the time. Jackson County Sheriff Janis Mangum stated that local deputies interviewed the Grays but found no basis for an arrest. They did, however, notify local schools to keep an eye on Colt—a warning that some schools claim they never received.

As the cases move forward, questions loom over whether the system failed to prevent this tragedy and how a young boy with known access to firearms slipped through the cracks to become a mass shooter.

President Joe Biden’s latest words to reporters related to the Ukraine war strongly suggest the US could be close to greenlighting Ukraine’s ability to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory.

The pattern of recent history is also that if Zelensky lobbies hard enough in western capitals, there’s eventual capitulation, even should there be great risk of NATO escalation with Russia. This is how the F-16 program happened, and it was rushed through with negative results thus far.

Amid the latest pleas from Zelensky for the West to take off all restrictions on use of offensive weaponry, Biden when asked by reporters Tuesday if the US will allow Ukraine forces to use longer-range missiles to target sites inside Russia, said: “We’re working that out right now.”

Last week while visiting Germany, Zelensky urged, “We need to have this long-range capability, not only on the divided territory of Ukraine but also on the Russian territory, so that Russia is motivated to seek peace.”

“We need to make Russian cities and even Russian soldiers think about what they need: peace or Putin,” he said.

Biden’s latest remark about working out whether to lift all range restrictions come the same week the US has accused Iran of supplying Moscow with short-range ballistic missiles. The White House quickly hit Iran with new sanctions, and there’s the potential that another strong ‘answer’ of the US will be to give Kiev what it wants in terms of lifting arms restrictions.

Secretary of State Blinken while in London this week, just ahead of another trip to Kiev, had this to say:

“It’s not just the system itself that counts,” said Blinken. “You have to ask: Can the Ukrainians effectively use it, and sometimes that requires significant training, which we’ve done. Do they have the ability to maintain it?”

So there continues to be mixed signals. The Pentagon has lately said that Ukraine has long-range capabilities with its drone program. Still, pieces and key aspects of a potential new policy are in motion:

Britain and France build and supply Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG cruise missiles to Ukraine, but it is has become apparent that US technology is also involved and Washington has held back from approving that technology’s use for strikes inside Russian territory. Keir Starmer, the UK prime minister, is due to meet with Biden in Washington on Friday.

Pressure is building in Congress too…

Given the escalating Russian attacks on civilian targets across Ukraine, Chair @SenatorCardin is urging the easing of restrictions on Ukrainian’s use of U.S.-provided weapons, adding that America “must act swiftly to grant these permissions.”

Statement ⤵️https://t.co/N73L0fBq41

— Senate Foreign Relations Committee (@SFRCdems) September 11, 2024

Just on Tuesday several oblasts in Russia were rocked by wave after wave of Ukrainian drones, described as one of the single biggest drone attacks of the war.

One Moscow woman died as a result of a drone slamming into her apartment building. If these attacks are done by missiles and not just UAVs, the casualties and devastation will be much worse. Such would certainly cross Putin’s red lines and he would likely escalate the war with major attacks on the Ukrainian capital and perhaps even government buildings like the parliament.

After many months of propaganda from the western media asserting that Russia’s military capacity had been shattered by the brutal “meat grinder” of the Ukraine front, it appears that the Kremlin is actually accelerating their offensive with more troops and artillery than ever.  And, they are poised to take all of the Donbas and large portions of Eastern Ukraine if they succeed in the pivotal city of Pokrovsk. 

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines.  It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.  The city’s defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia’s access to most of the region.  If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies.  This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines.  Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable.  

Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that’s not immediately apparent:  It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference.

Even the Kyiv Independent has published a worried analysis of the situation, though they assert the fall of Pokrovsk would not affect Ukraine’s overall war footing.  Citing a military analyst they admit: 

“The further the Russians advance, the more they unlock the entire front line to move, the more resources it will take for the Ukrainians to contain…”  “Ukraine’s ability to tackle its manpower and ammunition shortages will determine Pokrovsk’s fate, which in turn will depend on Kyiv’s priorities. Losing the city would be a logistical blow for Ukraine, threatening the defense of other Donbas cities…”  

They also admit that Zelensky’s stated plan of using the Kursk offensive to force Russia to slow their activities in the Donbas had failed.  Russia has gained more ground in the east since Kursk was contained, not less: 

“Contrary to the president’s claim, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged that despite over 30,000 Russian soldiers being transferred to Kursk Oblast from other fronts, Russia “is only increasing its forces” in the Pokrovsk sector…” 

Far-left outlet CNN has, surprisingly, admitted to the dire nature of the situation and reported on the rising problem of deserting soldiers near Pokrovsk: 

“Two and half years of Russia’s grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units. Reinforcements are few and far between, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia’s creeping advances… 

CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are or were until recently fighting or supervising units in the area. All six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers…” 

This tone is a far cry from CNN’s pro-Ukraine cheerleading a few months ago, which means the situation must be even worse than is being reported openly.  Ukraine is conscripting convicted criminals and putting them in the trenches in Pokrovsk in order to fill manpower shortages; a policy which Russia was once criticized for.

Russian forces are currently engaged in at least eight offensives across the east and they are within three miles of Pokrovsk; that’s spitting distance for their artillery and guided FAB munitions.  Their strategy so far has been to encircle urban centers and slowly squeeze Ukrainian defense units out, which means the battle for Pokrovsk may not be decided for many weeks.   

The timing of the battle is no mistake, however.  It would appear Putin is intent on securing the city and the Donbas before the US elections in November, just as Zelensky’s Kursk operation was designed to disrupt Russian advances before November.  Both sides are preparing contingencies regardless of who enters the Oval Office in 2025.

Authored by Dmytro “Henry” Aleksandrov via Headline USA,

Leonard Leo, a conservative billionaire activist who was responsible for the driving force behind the conservative movement to reshape the American legal system, recently started a $1 billion campaign to “crush liberal dominance” in American corporations, mass media and the entertainment industry.

Leo, who became famous for helping to make the Supreme Court conservative during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, said his non-profit group, the Marble Freedom Trust, is prepared to make the government and the private sectors conservative.

“We need to crush liberal dominance where it’s most insidious, so we’ll direct resources to build talent and capital formation pipelines in the areas of news and entertainment, where leftwing extremism is most evident,” Leo told the Financial Times.

According to him, the company would achieve this by helping anti-woke organizations.

“Expect us to increase support for organizations that call out companies and financial institutions that bend to the woke mind virus spread by regulators and NGOs so that they have to pay the price for putting extreme leftwing ideology ahead of consumers,” Leo said.

Trending Politics reported that Leo is a prominent conservative figure in American politics primarily known for reshaping the American legal system.

Leo, a lawyer and political consultant with deep ties to conservative activism, particularly in the judicial nomination process, was crucial in recommending and advancing conservative judges for federal courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court. The news source added that he did this through his work with the Federalist Society, a well-known legal organization that promotes originalism and textualism in judicial interpretation.

He told the Financial Times that his goal was to discover “very leveraged, impactful ways of reintroducing limited constitutional government and a civil society premised on freedom and personal responsibility and the virtues of Western civilization.”

The $1 billion operation now supports the conservative agenda against private institutions, challenging diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, climate and social considerations in investments and the “debanking” of conservative customers. According to Leo, this also extends to the public sector.

He stated that Leo plans to invest in a local media company in the U.S. over the next year, though he hasn’t yet chosen which one.

Uranium stocks jumped in the early US cash session after Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to review possible measures to restrict exports of strategic raw materials, such as nickel, titanium, and uranium, in retaliation for Western sanctions.

“Russia is the leader in reserves of a number of strategic raw materials, namely natural gas that is nearly 22% of the world’s reserves, gold at nearly 23%, and diamonds at nearly 55%. Mikhail Vladimirovich [Prime Minister Mishustin], I have a request for you to look, please, at some types of goods that we supply in large quantities to the world market. Supplies of a number of goods are limited to us, but maybe we should also think about certain restrictions; uranium, titanium, nickel. Just do not do anything to our detriment,” Putin told several cabinet ministers on Wednesday, as the Russian news agency Interfax reported.

Putin said, “Strategic reserves are being created in some countries, and some other measures are being taken,” adding, “In general, if this will not harm us, then we could think – I am not saying that we need to do this tomorrow – think about certain restrictions on deliveries to the foreign market, not only of the goods that I have named, but also of some others.” 

The US, UK, and EU unleashed a barrage of financial, economic, military, and energy sanctions on Russia shortly after it invaded Ukraine. Washington and Brussels were attempting to cripple Russia’s economy or its war effort, yet that turned out to be a failure since China stepped up as a major commodity buyer. 

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has transitioned its economy into a full-blown war economy. Putin has boosted the nation’s military budget by 70% this year, a post-Soviet record of over $100 billion. 

Due to failed Western sanctions, the US and Europe must face the genuine risk of trade restrictions by Moscow pushing prices of nickel, palladium, and uranium higher. This comes as Western central banks are fighting the inflation monster, sparked by their own doing.

In markets, uranium stocks, such as CCJ, UEC, URA, and URNM, jumped between 5% and 7%. 

In addition to fears of Russia reducing or entirely cutting uranium exports, Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, announced last month that it would cut its 2025 production forecast due to mounting supply chain woes.

We suspect uranium prices are set to jump once again…

A tight uranium supply theme rolling into 2025 could pressure prices even higher.

After yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in a 10Y reopening of 9Y-11M cusipg LF6, which for the second day in a row, saw remarkable demand.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 3.648%, which was 31.2bps below last month’s 3.96% and was the lowest since May 2023; it also stopped through the When Issued 3.662 by 1.4bps, the 3rd through in the past 4 auctions, and a clear reversal to last month’s ugly 3.1bps tail.

The bid to cover was 2.637, a big jump from the 2.317 in August, and the highest since June’s 2.67%.

The internals were even more impressive, with Indirects awarded 76.1%, the biggest award going to foreign buyers since February 2023. And with Directs taking down 13.7%, Dealers were left holding just 10.2%, the lowest since August 2023.

Yet despite the stellar 10Y auction, with yields already trading at 2023 lows earlier in the day only to spike higher after the hotter CPI print, before reversing, and the reversing again after the NVDA stick save sent money chasing risk assets once more, yields actually moved higher on the auction results, and were rapidly approaching session highs of 3.68%.

Israel’s top official who is overseeing the (so far) failed truce talks with Hamas has said Israel is ready to offer Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar safe passage if all the hostages are returned. Upon that condition, the war in Gaza war can come to an end, the senior official said.

This came direct from Israeli hostage envoy Gal Hirsch during an interview with Bloomberg published Tuesday. “I’m ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him,” Hirsch said.

“We want the hostages back. We want demilitarization, de-radicalization of course — a new system that will manage Gaza,” the top Israeli negotiator added. In essence he has stipulated that Hamas must agree to exit Gaza, and relinquish power there.

Hirsch described that this unprecedented safe passage offer was put on the table less than 48 hours ago, but did not reveal whether a response was received or the nature of any Hamas reaction to it.

Yet he also admitted in the interview that the prospect of achieving a deal looks more and more unlikely. So the safe passage offer looks like a desperate last-ditch effort to get talks back on track.

Sinwar has long been seen as the mastermind behind the Oct.7 terror attacks on southern Israel. But even if the Hamas chief took up the offer, he would still remain on the run even abroad. This is because, as Bloomberg explains, Israeli intelligence has a proven history of tracking the movements of Hamas officials abroad and assassinating them:

It’s unclear whether Hamas would accept the proposal for Sinwar to leave Gaza, especially given Israel’s history of operations targeting operatives abroad.

Israel hasn’t taken responsibility for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran. But Iran has said the killing — Haniyeh was slain in a bomb blast at a Tehran guest house — was Israel’s handiwork.

Hirsch continued by saying there are still other options even if Hamas doesn’t agree to this big offer of safe passage for Sinwar. “In parallel, I must work on plan B, C and D because I must bring the hostages back home,” he explained, adding that “The clock is ticking, the hostages do not have time.”

Indeed the last six hostages to be recovered from the tunnels had been slain shortly before Israel’s military (IDF) could reach them. This has outraged the hostage victims’ families, who have also accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of being lukewarm in seeking the return of the captives. They say he’s recklessly prioritized the military operation to defeat Hamas so much so that it’s put the remaining some 100 hostages in danger.

Recent days have witnessed more record-breaking protests in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem:

500,000 People Demand Hostage-release deal in massive Tel Aviv protest – https://t.co/ypF43BAXpO

An estimated half a million people took to the streets of Tel Aviv, Israel on Saturday night, demanding that the Israeli government agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas that w… pic.twitter.com/j5K8z9MkaR

— WorthyNews (@worthynews) September 9, 2024

Hamas has since warned that it will continue executing hostages if the IDF forces its way close to their locations. So the prospect of future daring military rescue raids returning hostages alive is looking more bleak.

For the second day in a row, the market needed a sticksave, and got it thanks to – guess who – Nvidia.

Earlier this morning we reminded readers that NVDA was set to present at the Goldman Tech conference in San Fran…

NVDA presentation begins at GS tech confhttps://t.co/dkJQaKajvf

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 11, 2024

… an event we said would have greater significance than the CPI print, and sure enough that’s what happened, because as stocks were slumping and were threatening to take out Friday’s lows…

… a soundbite from NVDA CEO Jensen Huang saved the day yet again.

As quoted by Bloomberg, Huang said that “the demand on [chips] is so great, and everyone wants to be first and everyone wants to be most.” He added that “we probably have more emotional customers today. Deservedly so. It’s tense. We’re trying to do the best we can.”

Huang also said that Nvidia leans heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor for production of its most important chips and does so because that company is the best in its field by a large margin. But geopolitical tension has raised risks. China sees TSMC’s home island as a rogue province, stoking concerns that it might try to reclaim the territory. That could potentially cut off Nvidia from the key supplier.

Huang also said he develops much of the company’s technology in-house and that should allow Nvidia to switch orders to alternative suppliers. Still, such a change would likely result in a reduction in quality of his chips.

TSMC’s “agility and their capability to respond to our needs is just incredible,” he said. “And so we use them because they’re great, but if necessary, of course, we can always bring up others.”

In any case all the market heard is “demand is great”, which sent NVDA stock soaring from a session low of $107 to a session high of $113…

… which has also pushed the broader market to session highs:

• *NASDAQ 100 ERASES DECLINES, GAINING 0.1%

And just like that stocks have been sticksaved once again.

Western electric vehicle demand downgrades in the last 1.5 years have been one of the driving forces behind lithium prices collapsing from a peak in late 2022 into a nasty bear market. Oversupply of the critical battery metal has since become a significant concern in recent quarters as EV demand flounders in a period of high interest rates and elevated automobile prices. However, there is good news: China’s monthly lithium carbonate production is set to fall, and this production downshift has already started pushing prices upward.

On Tuesday, UBS analyst Sky Han revealed that Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. halted production at a major mine in Jiangxi province, easing oversupply fears for the silvery-white metal.

“According to our channel checks with several contacts, CATL finally decides to suspend its lithium lepidolite operation in Jiangxi after a meeting on 10 September,” Han said. 

She estimated the mine’s closure could slash about 8%, or 5k to 6k metric tons of China’s monthly carbonate production:

“CATL’s suspension of lithium operation in Jiangxi will lead to 8% or 5-6kt LCE production cut of China monthly Li2CO3 production, and help rebalance the supply with demand.” 

“After making a loss for two months in lithium business and continuous downside risk on lithium price, we finally see normal supply response from a marginal-cost producer,” she said. 

The analyst expects an 11%- 23% upside in the Chinese lithium price for the rest of the year. Prices jumped 5.6% to about 75,500 yuan per ton on Wednesday. Prices have slid 88% during the EV downturn that began in late 2022. 

Han cautioned that past rumors about suspended mine operations were inaccurate:

“It’s not the first time for us to hear CATL to cut/suspend lithium production in Jiangxi. Although the previous news turned out to be speculation, we get higher conviction this time.” 

Meanwhile, lithium stocks from Australia to China surged (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Australia: MinRes up 16%, Liontown +13%, IGO +11%, Pilbara +4.9%, Arcadium Lithium +11%
• China: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi up by maximum 10% in China, Chengxin Lithium gains as much as 7.2%

Tribeca portfolio manager Ben Cleary told Financial Review, “The rally we’re seeing today is almost 100 percent short covering,”  adding, “Supply coming out of the market is exactly what the lithium market needs, so there is plenty of room for this rebound to run given how hard the stocks have been hit.”