Month: September 2024

By Daphne Howland of RetailDive

Summary

• After declaring it would liquidate because no buyer could be found, LL Flooring on Friday said it has signed an agreement with private equity firm F9 Investments, its largest shareholder, for a going-concern sale of the business. 

• The deal is expected to close at the end of the month, subject to approval by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware and closing conditions. LL Flooring, formerly known as Lumber Liquidators, filed under Chapter 11 last month with plans to close nearly 100 stores.

• Per the agreement, F9 Investments will acquire 219 stores and their inventory, a distribution center in Sandston, Virginia, plus LL Flooring’s intellectual property and other assets. The firm has put up a deposit of $4.1 million in cash, per court documents.

The month before LL Flooring’s bankruptcy filing, F9 published an open letter to LL Flooring’s shareholders, urging them to vote for its slate of board nominees, slamming the board for what F9 executives said were its failures and warning that the board was making “poor and puzzling operational and financial decisions that are jeopardizing the [company’s] future.”

By then it had been a little over a year after LL Flooring’s board rebuffed a takeover proposal from F9 subsidiary Cabinets to Go for $5.76 per share in cash, saying the offer “significantly undervalues LL Flooring,” but noting that the company was “open to engaging further on any opportunity that we believe will deliver appropriate value to all our shareholders.”

LL Flooring previously told the Delaware bankruptcy court that pressure in the home improvement sector took a toll on its business. Vendors began to withhold shipments as the company began to have trouble paying its bills, which made it difficult to continue operating.

Working closely with vendors continues to be in focus as LL Flooring prepares to remain in business after all, according to a statement from CEO Charles Tyson.

“We are pleased to have reached this agreement with F9 Investments for a going-concern sale following significant efforts by our team and advisors to preserve the business and maintain ongoing operations,” he said. “As we move through the court-supervised process toward the approval and completion of this transaction, we remain committed to continuing to serve our valued customers and working closely with our vendors and partners. I continue to be appreciative of the ongoing focus and efforts of our associates to provide the best experience for our customers.”

With both the presidential debate and CPI prints on deck, traders were not in an adventurous mood today, and after a rocky last few days of trading, where stocks first dropped 1.7% Friday only to rebound 1.2% on Monday, Tuesday saw a mini rollercoaster, as emini futures first dropped, then gained, only to slide to session lows after Europe closed, before recovering all losses and closing near session highs, and just around 5,500, a key psychological resistance level.

Today’s moves were so phlegmatic that not even the 0DTE crew tried to move stocks much either way.

And speaking of phlegmatic, this is how Goldman’s trading floor described today’s market “uninspiring tape and eerily quiet intraday trading (again) which is concerning…… no smoking gun on this sharp move lower but feels like risk is to the downside in an illiquid and low volume tape. Tonight’s must watch debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has unnerved investors more than before the June event with Joe Biden.”

The market got some much needed tailwind thanks to Oracle, which surged to an all time high after reporting solid results…

… and supported the AI trade just as it was about to crack the most important long-term support levels.

Strength in Mega Cap Tech, up 1.3%, helped offset the cyclical weakness: AI Winners were up 70bp, while Defensives rose 35bp, with the bid led by Wireless, Utilities and Real Estate.

Which is not to say there were no casualties: banks got crushed after first Goldman and then JPMorgan warned that Q3 revenues and the full year Net Interest Income outlook would likely disappoint, sending their stocks sharply lower…

… with the largest US bank at one point tumbling the most since the covid crash. A far more ominous plunge, however, took place at Ally Financial: one of the largest US auto loan lenders finally admitted what everyone else knew already: both delinquencies and charge offs are surging, and results in one of the biggest drop in ALLY stock on record.

The rest of the market was generally solid and closed in the green, with the exception of energy…

… and with good reason: ahead of today’s presidential debate where inflation and the price of various goods will be a key topic, it was imperative that oil be hammered, and sure enough, Brent plunged 3.3%, one of its biggest one-day drops of 2024, sending the price to 2021 levels.

Of course, the last time oil was here, it then promptly doubled int he next 3 months, and while another war doesn’t appear imminent, the fact that hedge funds are the most bearish on oil they have ever been…

… suggests that a historic short squeeze may be looming, especially since Goldman warned that while financial demand may be low (boosted by historic shorting), physical demand remains quite resilient.

As such, it wouldn’t take much work by Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ to spark a massive squeeze, an April 2020 in reverse if you will, as all those who are short oil are unable to find deliverables to cover. And so we wait.

Oil and banks aside, however, the action remained choppy at the index level with no change to the broader narrative even as micro headlines pick up. As UBS notes, “the market remains surprisingly resilient despite the increased activity in equity capital markets and high yield issuance, Election uncertainty and growth concerns with crude oil down 4%. Brent dropped below $70 for the first time since December 2021 after China’s weak import data adds to oversupply concerns .”

UBS warns that “a lack of liquidity is contributing to the choppiness. Lots of investors remain on the road attending various conferences and the uncertainty around the Fed cut pace and the election is keeping investors on the sideline and will not go away near term.” And the punchline: “investors are already set up very defensively (look at recent action in defensives like Staples and Wireless names ) and/or there is plenty of cash on the sidelines as last week’s healthy equity capital markets activity and performance showed.”

Defensive is correct, and one need look no further than the record takedown by foreign (Indirect) buyers in today’s 3Y auction…

… which led to continued buying on the short-end, and pushed the 2s10s curve – which until last week had just emerged from the longest stretch of inversion on record – to the most steep it has been since the summer of 2022.

Bonds were not the only “flight to safety”: so was bullion, which extended its rebound from Friday’s swoon to trade just shy of its record high…

… and even bitcoin appears to once again be catching a more solid bid.

And now, all attention turns to the bloodbath that will be the Kamala-Trump debate in a few hours.

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The Federal Emergency Management Agency is refusing to help some local governments pay for storm recovery while its aid fund faces a $6.2 billion deficit. The White House keeps blaming Congress for not providing enough money, but the fiscal crisis is partially FEMA’s own fault.

FEMA has $8.3 billion in “unliquidated obligations” set aside to help victims of storms from before 2012, according to a Department of Homeland Security Office of Inspector General report titled “FEMA’s Inadequate Oversight Led to Delays in Closing Out Declared Disasters.” It is money that FEMA has promised to spend in the future, but it’s unclear when or if it will actually help American families.

Meanwhile, the money can’t be used to help victims of hurricanes from this summer.

Key facts: FEMA grants must be used before a “period of performance” deadline. If the deadline is extended, FEMA officials are supposed to provide a detailed written justification.

FEMA has recently extended deadlines by up to 16 years for $7 billion of grants, sometimes without explanation, according to the OIG report.

For example, FEMA set aside billions to help the Northeast recover from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The money was supposed to be used up by October 2016, but FEMA extended the deadline to September 2026. $4.5 billion of it was still unused as of last year and is unavailable for victims of this year’s storms.

The extensions are awarded based on “subjective” criteria, the report says. Auditors wrote that “As a result, the potential risk for fraud, waste, and abuse increases the longer a program remains open.”

Even when extensions are not granted, FEMA does not always enforce its deadlines. There was $9.4 million set aside for grants with deadlines over 12 months ago as of June 2023, according to the report. FEMA recouped an additional $5.7 million while the audit was taking place.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com.

Background: The inspector general report is the latest controversy in what has been a challenging year for FEMA. There were a record 28 storms that each caused over $1 billion in damages last year, and there have been 19 so far this year.

In July, the Government Accountability Office reported that FEMA greatly underestimated how much money it would need to spend on the Covid-19 pandemic and had not requested enough money from Congress over the last few years.

The agency’s Disaster Relief Fund nearly ran out of money this August, and FEMA was forced to pause 650 projects that were not deemed essential for “life-saving services.” The same thing happened in October 2023 and seven other times since 2001.

Yet FEMA continues to approve new expenses related to the Covid-19 pandemic, even though the public health emergency officially ended in May 2023.

Summary: There’s no use in obligating billions of dollars to help victims of natural disasters if the money is just going to sit in a bank account.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

With the stock market rollercoaster stuck in “down” mode today, it is probably not a surprise that the flight to safety would be strong to quite strong, and sure enough moments ago when the US sold $58BN in 3Y paper, the demand was the strongest since at least last summer.

Pricing at a high yield of 3.440%, the 3Y auction was not only 37bps below last month’s 3.81% and the lowest since August 2022, but also stopped through the 3.457% When Issued by 1.7bps, the biggest Through since August 2023 and the 4th biggest on record.

As one would expect for a auction with big demand, the bid to cover jumped to 2.662 from 2.551, above the recent average of 2.564.

The internals, however, were the most impressive feature of today’s auction, with Indirects awarded 78.24%, up from 64.4% last month, and the highest on record!

With little room left for the other two groups, the breakdown was almost equal: Directs took down 11.3% and Dealers were left ith just 10.4%, the second lowest on record.

Overall, this was a stellar 3Y auction, and it indicates that the market is certain that the Fed will cut by at least 25bps next week, with some still expecting a 50bps cut.

Yesterday we said that the latest consumer credit numbers, which saw a bizarre surge in credit card debt as consumers – their savings now depleted and at record low levels – now have to charge their credit card for every day staples, were the “last hurrah” for consumption in the US.

It didn’t take long to get confirmation, when first JPMorgan shocked the market when its president Daniel Pinto warned that the bank will not hit its (or the Wall Street consensus) previous Net Interest Income target, sending the stock plunging the most since June 2020…

… which however was followed by a far more dramatic crash in the shares of Ally Financial, which plunged as much as 18%, their biggest one-day drop since March 2020, after the auto lender’s management presented at the Barclays 22nd Annual Global Financial Services Conference.

What sent the stock crashing is CFO Russ Hutchinson warning about weaker credit and net interest income trends quarter-to-date relative to expectations; specifically Hutchingson said that in July and August, they saw auto delinquencies soar a whopping 20 basis points compared to their expectation, while net charge offs (NCOs) were up ~10 bps compared to their expectations.

Confirming that the pain is mostly linked to the firm’s retail auto loan book, Hutchinson said that borrowers have shown signs of vulnerability throughout the year and August US jobs data underscored those stresses.

“Over the course of the quarter, our credit challenges have intensified,” Hutchinson said on Tuesday. “Our borrower is struggling with high inflation and cost of living and now, more recently, a weakening employment picture.”

He also said that the firm may experience some underperformance, he said, adding that Ally will evaluate reserves to cover bad loans and increase them if needed. Needless to say, the sudden confirmation that the bottom is falling out of auto loans is something the market was apparently unaware of, and confirms that US consumer are once again picking and choosing on which accounts to default first.

Hutchinson said the firm will focus more on capital and expenses moving forward, though is not updating its guidance at this time.

Commenting on the announcement, KBW analyst Sanjay Sakhrani said that management pointed to weaker credit trends quarter-to-date compared to expectations

“Clearly the guide was disappointing and begs the question if this is ALLY-specific or a canary in the coal mine,” he writes.  “We still think the stock remains a compelling longer-term opportunity with rates on the decline, but concede this revision is not a good look,” he noted, sidestepping commentary on how those who bought the stock per his reco ahead of today’s 18% plunge must feel.

RBC analyst Jon Arfstrom, who also has an “outperform” rating on the crashing company, wrote that “while these are manageable increases relative to the prior guidance, we believe the relatively quick increase in the NCO and delinquency direction is something that investors will question”

Ally’s announcement sparked a stock liquidation frenzy among all consumer-facing card issuers, including Bread Financial -9.7%, Synchrony Financial -8.6%, Capital One Financial -6.9% and Discover Financial Services -6.9%.

BMW AG shares tumbled in Germany on Tuesday after the company slashed its annual outlook due to a faulty braking system from supplier Continental AG, impacting as many as 1.5 million vehicles, which will only drive costs higher for the carmaker. 

“The delivery stops for vehicles that are not already in customers hands will have a negative worldwide sales effect in the second half of the year. The Integrated Braking System-related technical actions impact over 1.5 million vehicles and result in additional warranty costs in a high three-digit million amount in the third quarter,” BMW wrote in a press release. 

As a result, BMW adjusted the guidance for the 2024 financial year:

• A slight decrease in deliveries versus previous year (previously: slight increase).
• An EBIT margin for 2024 in a corridor from 6% to 7% (previously: 8% to 10%).
• Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) between 11% and 13% (previously: 15% to 20%).

In markets, investors dumped BMW shares in Germany, down 9% to around the mid-point of the 70 euro handle. 

BMW also pointed out headwinds have been gathering across the global automotive segment. It said, “Parallel to this effect, the ongoing muted demand in China is affecting sales volumes. Despite government stimulus measures, consumer sentiment remains weak.” 

More on the situation from Bloomberg Intelligence: 

“BMW’s 2024 auto Ebit margin guidance cut to 6-7% from 8-10% means at least a 20% reduction to consensus auto Ebit. Only half of that is attributable to higher warranty costs from a faulty Continental braking system, and the balance relating to negative pricing, especially in China amid waning demand impacting automakers and suppliers alike. BMW’s rising inventory follows VW’s overcapacity woes and sets a negative 2H tone with EU sales 15% below a 2019 peak and sluggish EV demand.” 

And Goldman’s take…

FY24 auto margin now seen at 6-7% – Today (September 10th) BMW took down its FY24 outlook and now expects an automotive EBIT margin of 6-7% vs. 8-10% previously (Visible Alpha Consensus Data 8.3%, GSe 8.7%). The cut to guidance is attributed to an issue with a braking system that has led BMW to stop sale of certain models globally and incremental warranty provisions, in the high 3 digit million amount during 3Q. In addition, BMW notes ongoing muted demand in China negatively impacting volumes.

Potential cut of €2.76bn to cons FY group EBIT – Taking the information at hand, we believe that cons group EBIT for BMW may be subject to negative revisions in the magnitude of 13% to 23%. At the mid-point, we see a potential negative revision of €2.74bn in the automotive segment and c.€30mn in motorcycles. We are surprised by the magnitude of BMW’s warning having noted management’s confidence at 2Q results on 1st August. We remain Neutral rated.

With a broader view here of the global automotive space, the MSCI World Automobiles Index has stalled since peaking in 2021. 

A lower interest rate environment will certainly help the industry. 

Authored by James Ricjards via DailyReckoning.com,

Few events will affect investors more than the U.S. presidential election. The playing out of the campaign between now and Nov. 5 will obviously have an impact on markets as one side surges and the other side falters and vice versa.

But the impact won’t last for two months. It’ll last for four years and beyond because the two candidates — Trump and Harris — offer radically different policies.

It’s easy to get caught up in the daily rituals of name-calling, competing policy positions, endorsements, money and the rest of the campaign process. That matters, but not as much as getting to the core of what’s going on and who will actually win.

For that we need a larger frame that steps back from the headlines and looks at the critical campaign dynamics.

The campaign is a race between what we call the Kamala Narrative and the Kamala Reality. Since Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 in what can only be described as a coup d’etat and quickly endorsed Kamala Harris for the nomination, we have been bathed in a media and political tsunami of pro-Kamala propaganda.

The Kamala Propaganda

It’s as if Kamala hadn’t been vice president for the past 3½ years and we’re suddenly being introduced to her for the first time as someone with new ideas and no responsibility for the disastrous administration of which she has been a part.

Not only are we expected to believe there’s a new Kamala on the scene, but this race will also play out much faster than the election calendar would indicate. Only about 35% of Americans vote on Election Day. The other 65% vote at various times beginning this week and lasting until Election Day. Most of the votes will be cast with drop-off ballots (gathered in a process called ballot harvesting and dumped into drop boxes with no accountability). In effect, the election will be over by mid-October.

Since the Kamala “honeymoon” lasted from July 21 through Aug. 22 (the official end of the Democratic National Convention) and since the election will be over by, say, Oct. 15, it means the real election season is only about 41 days between now and then.

Based on the Harris hagiography and the compressed calendar, the Democrats’ strategy becomes clear. The goal is to maintain the Kamala Narrative until mid-October before the Kamala Reality has time to catch up.

Can they do it? Possibly yes. And that should give all investors deep cause for concern. Let’s look at the narrative and the reality and then assess the Trump campaign’s ability to pop Kamala’s bubble before it’s too late.

The narrative is that Harris is “young,” “energetic,” “joyful” and represents the passing of the torch to a new generation of Democrats. The polls show a narrowing race, the media is almost uniformly in thrall and Harris supposedly will bring Blacks, younger people and independent women home to the Democratic ticket. Harris has put the swing states back in play and has several paths to victory.

The New Kid in Town?

Harris is also the “new” candidate. The media portray her as having nothing to do with the Afghanistan humiliation (although she claimed to be the “last person in the room” when the decisions were made) and the border collapse (although she was universally acknowledged as the “border czar”).

Forget all of her failures. In fact, don’t even talk about them. She’s the new kid on the block with a lot to offer and the avatar of a brighter future ahead.

The reality could not be more different. In reality, Harris is a radical progressive who will easily be manipulated by the Obama wing of the party with Susan Rice and Eric Holder filling in the policy blanks.

She’s a failed border czar who allowed 10 million illegal immigrants (many with criminal records, diseases and terrorist connections) to cross the border with no accountability, screening or tracking. She has no other foreign policy experience except for showing up at photo ops at some summit conferences.

The few policies that have been articulated by Harris include corporate tax increases, price controls and continued support for the Green New Scam. Price controls always cause shortages, higher prices and black-market sales.

The Green New Scam will keep energy prices for everyday Americans higher than needed. Corporate tax increases will hurt stock valuations. These Harris policies will slow the economy and hurt stock prices.

Harris cannot hold a press conference or speak extemporaneously except in the most juvenile way that ends up with nonsensical repetition. Kamala’s VP choice Tim Walz is even worse. He’s a hard-shell radical with close ties to Communist China. Even his own family dislikes him and endorses Trump.

All the Democrats really have to offer is more abortions, more war in Ukraine and relentless Trump bashing.

The Trump Dilemma

The election boils down to whether the Trump campaign can make the reality clear and pop the narrative bubble in the next seven weeks. The issue for the Harris campaign is whether she can sustain the narrative and run out the clock before reality intrudes.

On the one hand, Trump should stick to his issues (immigration, inflation, energy production, lower taxes and less regulation). Still, how does he do that in the face of a media blackout and Democrat lies about their real positions (such as Kamala’s claims she will stop inflation and control the border, etc.)? How does Trump pop the Harris narrative without name-calling and anger?

The endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will help in some key swing states. The RFK bump may only be about two percentage points, but that’s a huge help in races where the polls show Trump and Harris within one percentage point of each other.

Trump also has a huge advertising budget, and his VP selection of J.D. Vance is a boost. Vance is even younger than Harris and helps to offset Harris’ presumed edge with younger voters. Vance’s continual availability to the press makes a stark contrast with Harris’ new basement strategy.

The best approach for Trump may be ridicule. It’s extremely powerful and works better than name-calling. Making Harris out to be a ridiculous figure with no policy success, no substance and not very bright may be the most effective technique for popping the narrative bubble.

It has the added advantage of actually being true.

The Dems’ Doomsday Plan

If Trump can win the election with 270 or more Electoral College votes, the fight won’t be over. The Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves.

Even if Trump wins more than 270 Electoral College votes, Democrats could retake the House of Representatives. On Jan. 6, 2025, the new Democrat-controlled House could pass a resolution that Trump is an “insurrectionist” and disqualify his electoral votes under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

Kamala would not have 270 electoral votes needed to win. This would throw the election of the president to the House of Representatives voting as state delegations, not as individuals. Under the XII Amendment (1804), only Kamala Harris could receive votes for president assuming Trump was disqualified and no other candidate won any electors at all.

J.D. Vance would suffer no insurrectionist disqualification. So the result could be Kamala Harris as president and J.D. Vance as vice president (similar to Jefferson and Burr in 1801).

Another possibility is that the Republican-controlled state delegations in the House could boycott the presidential vote in which case a quorum would be lacking. In that case, the vice president (J.D. Vance) “shall act as president” under the XII Amendment. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Democrats led by Jamie Raskin have already set the wheels in motion.

Trump has 41 days to flip the narrative on Kamala Harris. If he does, the Democrats have a doomsday plan they will unveil on Jan. 6, 2025, to disqualify Trump.

Put on your crash helmets. The election is far from over and far from certain.

Tropical Storm Francine churned off the Texas Gulf Coast early Tuesday with sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today as it traverses northeast toward the Gulf Coast and becomes a looming threat for dozens of offshore oil and gas platforms and inland refineries.

“The storm is starting to get its act together,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex Dasilva told USA Today, adding that warm waters across the Gulf served as “rocket fuel” for the storm. 

The latest weather models expect Francine to strengthen into a category two system tomorrow afternoon or evening and make landfall on the Louisiana coast. 

On Monday, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Shell announced workers at offshore rigs in the storm’s path were being evacuated and drilling activities suspended.  

Goldman’s Robert Quinn provided a helpful breakdown of what’s happening in energy markets ahead of the storm’s landfall in an area home to a bulk of America’s energy complex, including refining.

Product markets strengthened on September 9th due to the looming threat of Francine. The tropical storm threatened to become a hurricane by September 10th and barreled towards the Gulf Coast, forcing some oil drillers to halt production. RBOB Gasoline registered a sizeable open interest gain: $1.1bn, the 2nd largest 1 day jump in 2024. Given the locality of OI increases, a combination of outright and short-dated spread buying probably transpired. The general low stock environment plus underwhelming financial positioning prompted the influx from discretionary strategies. That said, the price reversal barely dented the current negative trend. Thus CTA shorts are not yet vulnerable.

Here are Quinn’s highlights:

• Product markets strengthened on September 9th due to the looming threat of Francine. The tropical storm threatened to become a hurricane by September 10th and barreled towards the Gulf Coast, forcing some oil drillers to halt production. October RBOB Gasoline and Diesel contracts closed +1.3% and +1.2% respectively. Front calendar spreads tightened, with October-November RBOB recovering off its record low.

• RBOB Gasoline registered a sizeable open interest gain. Aggregate open interest surged $1.1bn, marking the 2nd largest 1 day jump in 2024.

• Given the locality of OI increases, a combination of outright and short-dated spread buying probably transpired. November (+$675mm) and December (+$300mm) led. October declined a modest -$125m, considering the presence of index roll activity.

• The general low stock environment plus underwhelming financial positioning prompted the influx from discretionary strategies. Per Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Gasoline inventory across the globe resides at the bottom end of the 5 year range. Furthermore, as of the last Commitment of Traders update on September 3rd, combined Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable net RBOB Gasoline length sat just above the multi-year min.

• That said, the price reversal barely dented the current negative trend. Thus CTA shorts are not yet vulnerable. According to GS Futures Strategists’ Modelled Funds analysis, a move of ~11% is necessary to turn any of the 3 momentum thresholds.

Quinn’s chart pack.

RBOB Gasoline October-November Calendar Spread

RBOB Gasoline 1 Day Aggregate Open Interest Change ($ notional)

RBOB Gasoline Inventories

RBOB Gasoline Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable Net Positioning vs Price

RBOB Gasoline Momentum Signals

While WTI futures have slid in recent weeks due to China and US slowdown fears, prices have found a temporary bottom around $68/bbl handle ahead of the storm’s landfall. 

Energy traders have all eyes on the Louisiana area. 

The stock of the largest US bank is tumbling this morning after Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan’s president, said that analysts were too optimistic in projecting next year’s expenses and net interest income, sending the shares down more than 6%, and tumbling to 1 month lows..

The current NII estimate of $89.5 billion is “not very reasonable” given interest-rate expectations, Pinto said at the Barclays annual financial services conference Tuesday. The figure “will be lower,” he said, which is surprising because the bank’s own latest outlook just two months ago forecast $91 billion in net interest income.

Pinto also said third-quarter investment-banking fees could rise 15%, while markets revenue could rise 2% — both also below what analysts had been anticipating.

Pinto’s comments follow similar downbeat guidance from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon who warned yesterday that his firm’s third-quarter trading revenue could fall 10%.

As Bloomberg notes, Pinto has been sole president of JPMorgan for almost three years, and CEO Jamie Dimon has repeatedly said Pinto is ready to take over in case of an emergency or accelerated handoff. Earlier this year, Pinto ceded day-to-day control of the firm’s Wall Street operations to Jenn Piepszak and Troy Rohrbaugh as part of a shakeup to add to the experience of other potential CEO candidates.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The latest New York Times / Siena College poll is a doozie. It has Trump in the lead. Let’s discuss why.

Image created by X’s Grok based on image description provided by Mish.

Trump Slightly Ahead

The New York Times reports Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval, Times/Siena Poll Finds.

The survey finds that Donald J. Trump is retaining his support and that, on the eve of the debate, voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands.

Support for Harris Stalls

Nate Cohen comments on the poll in his take New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August. That’s a free link.

Is Kamala Harris’s surge beginning to ebb?

That’s the question raised by this morning’s New York Times/Siena College poll, which finds Donald J. Trump narrowly ahead of her among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent.

To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls.

There’s no way to know whether the Times/Siena poll is too favorable for Mr. Trump. We never know whether the polls are “right” until the votes are counted.

But the poll nonetheless finds that he has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top.

He’s more popular than before. Overall, 46 percent of likely voters say they have a favorable view of the former president. That’s down a tick from our last national poll, when 47 percent had a favorable view, but it still makes him more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020.

He has an advantage on the issues. We asked voters a two-part question. First, what’s the most important issue to your vote? Second, do you think Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump is better on that issue? By that measure, Mr. Trump has a five-point lead on the issue that matters most to voters, whatever that may be for them.

He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is “not too far” to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s “too far to the right.” Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s “not too far either way.”

He’s seen as the change candidate in a nation that wants change. While President Biden’s departure from the race lifted the spirits of many Democrats, the national mood still isn’t great. An overwhelming majority of voters still say that the economy is poor and that the nation is heading in the wrong direction. And a clear majority — 61 percent — of voters say they want the next president to bring a “major change” from Mr. Biden, compared with 34 percent who want “minor change” and 3 percent who don’t want change.

Only 40 percent of likely voters said Ms. Harris represented “change,” while 55 percent said she represented “more of the same.” Mr. Trump, in contrast, was seen as representing “change” by 61 percent of voters, while only 34 percent said he was “more of the same.”

The Mistakes of 2019 Could Cost Harris the Election

Nate Silver comments The Mistakes of 2019 Could Cost Harris the Election

Ordinarily, I wouldn’t think it’s worth it to write a story based on a single poll. But this one merits an exception.

The exceptions were:

1. NYT/Siena is our second-highest-rated pollster.

2. The poll has a large sample size: 1,695 likely voters.

3. The poll is very recent, fully post-Labor Day and having completed its field work on Friday.

4. The poll provides trendlines for comparison: the numbers are just a bit worse for Harris than the previous NYT/Siena national survey in July and considerably worse for her than a series of battleground state polls the Times conducted in early August.

5. The NYT/Siena poll tends to singularly drive the media conversation about the race, given the poll’s well-deserved reputation for accuracy and the Times’s outsized influence in the media.

This morning’s NYT/Siena poll contained a pair of questions on whether voters think Harris is too liberal/progressive and whether Trump is too conservative. The numbers were lopsided in Trump’s favor. Only 32 percent of voters said Trump was too conservative, while 47 said Harris was too liberal. The demographics on this question are about what you might expect. Harris is faring poorly among white voters without college degrees, rural voters, and older voters: the types of voters who are plentiful in Blue Wall states like Pennsylvania.

Democratic messaging often suffers from the sheer abundance of potential attack lines on Trump, causing voters to tune out. The aforementioned whiny progressive media critics don’t seem to understand that elevating every minor controversy surrounding Trump only reduces the signal-to-noise ratio and makes them look like the boy who constantly cried wolf.

The last paragraph is interesting. Trump makes the same mistake.

Trump needs to stick to the inflation, housing, immigration, and education indoctrination. He just can’t do it.

Harris Will Be More Like California

Harris is attempting to run a generic campaign, pretending to be middle, yet promising everything to everyone.

She want to restrict immigration while supporting it. She promises to allow more fracking while attempting to placate the Greens.

California is a disaster, but everything she espouses translates to “more California” solutions.

Trump’s idea to bring in revenue via tariffs, is economic madness. But Harris can’t easily attack that because she wants more tariffs and a crackdown on China as well.

Anybody but Biden

The big surge for Harris was nothing more than a grateful mirage of “Anybody but Biden”.

The huge initial lead of Trump was the same thing.

So we had unsustainable surges first in one direction, then the other.

Trump vs Harris

Biden is out to pasture. Had Democrats had an open convention It would have neither been Biden nor Harris.

From here on out, Harris more than Trump needs to prove she has moved toward the center. It will be difficult at best for her to pull that off.

August 24: Vote for Harris if You Want Radical Racial Indoctrination of Your Kids

August 16: Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)

More Inflation and More Indoctrination

That’s the winning message for Trump, if he can just stick with it.