Ukraine’s “Victory Plan” Is Delusional

Ukraine’s “Victory Plan” Is Delusional

In the past two years the western establishment media has effectively obscured the reality on the ground in Ukraine.  Only recently has it become clear to the public that the tales we’ve heard about Russia imploding due to “bad tactics” and “throwing bodies into the meat grinder” in exchange for irrelevant territory have all been a fantasy.  The problem is, propagandists often end up believing their own propaganda and then they are caught completely by surprise down the road when reality slaps them in the face.

Russian offensive actions in the east have greatly accelerated and now in the south the vital city of Vuhledar is set to fall within a couple days (if it hasn’t already).  Their attrition based strategy and artillery superiority have created a shield for small fast moving units to strike Ukraine’s trenches and fixed defenses, and their drone game has dramatically improved.  This has led them to capture multiple towns and cities in the past three months, with their forces closing in on the key eastern operational base of Pokrovsk.  If Pokrovsk falls, the entire east of Ukraine could easily fall.

Beyond the shift to attrition tactics, Russia is gaining territory quickly because Ukraine is low on manpowerNo amount of NATO technology or weaponry is going to help this fundamental weakness.  This is the reality in Ukraine; they are losing the war.

The western media is unable to gloss over the situation any longer, which means something dramatic will have to happen to change the course of the war in Ukraine’s favor.  Their government is scrambling to initiate an October surprise in preparation for the US elections in November.  The US runs NATO, and Ukraine is entirely dependent on US aid.  

The notion of a Ukrainian “Victory Plan” is by itself questionable given the circumstances, but what is reportedly contained in Vladimir Zelensky’s strategy seems to be a over-optimistic wish list relying heavily on escalation between NATO and Russia.  In other words, the only way Ukraine can “win” is for NATO to engage in open warfare with the East.

While the full plan hasn’t been divulged, senior U.S. officials who are familiar with its contents don’t see anything original or innovative in it. As one told The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 25, “I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there.” From what we can grasp, the “victory plan” is less a “plan” and more a continuation of Zelensky’s lobbying campaign to keep U.S. arms flowing in perpetuity.  

Zelensky is dead-set on getting permission to use US and European long range missile systems against targets deep within Russia.  The problem, as Vladimir Putin rightly noted, is that these systems cannot hit such targets accurately without NATO satellite intel and acquisition.  Meaning, the missiles must be guided by US and European military technicians and assets.

It is likely that the majority of Ukrainian long range drone strikes within Russia are already being aided by NATO intel, but the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles far from Ukraine’s front line is another matter entirely.  There’s no plausible deniability for NATO involvement.  The use of these weapons within Russia would be akin to a declaration of war and would trigger escalation outside of Ukraine.

What would the consequences be?  Not necessarily the use of nuclear weapons (though Putin did just change his bottom line on a nuclear response to include long range attacks using NATO weapons), but the spread of more advanced Russian armaments to countries like China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, and even the Houthis in Yemen is a good bet.  Meaning a more significant threat to NATO interests in Asia and the Middle East.  The war would spread.

So far the Biden Administration has refrained from supporting the long range option, but has offered another $8 billion in support.  Under a Trump presidency, the money train is likely to stop abruptly.

Zelensky has offered no practical measures for negotiations, arguing that concessions are off the table.  Furthermore, he claims that peace is only possible once Ukraine has taken back all territory seized by Russia, including Crimea which was annexed in 2014.  He then demanded that Russia pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction and that Putin and a multitude of other Russian officials be handed over to be tried for war crimes.  This is never going to happen.

The core of Ukraine’s victory plan relies on long range strikes using NATO guided missiles and acceptance into NATO.  Both factors at this stage would cause WWIII.

Ukraine’s chest beating is the national equivalent of “short man’s syndrome.”  That said, Zelensky would not be making these kinds of demands if he was not being encouraged by someone behind the scenes.  Many officials within the US and Europe have given Zelensky delusions of grandeur about his chances, perhaps because they want the war to grind on forever.  These same officials have hinted consistently that they will not accept a Ukrainian loss.   

Regardless of what side people think should win, the fact is that Russia is the inevitable victor according to all the evidence on hand.  While the extent of Putin’s goals in the region are unknown, it’s unlikely that he intends to march beyond Ukraine.  He may simply stop at the edge of the Donbas and annex the region like he did Crimea.

This may actually be the best case scenario for all parties involved.  The longer the war goes on the greater the chances of a powerkeg moment and a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.  Ukraine should not be talking about “victory”, that time has come and gone. They should be talking about peace.   

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 22:10

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‘Conspiracy’ Confirmed? Fluoride In Drinking Water May Lower Kids’ IQs, Judge Rules

‘Conspiracy’ Confirmed? Fluoride In Drinking Water May Lower Kids’ IQs, Judge Rules

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

A federal judge has ordered the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water because high levels could pose a risk to the intellectual development of children.

The ruling, which came with little fanfare, appeared to validate one of the longest-running so-called conspiracy theories in America’s alt-right subculture—that the government’s use of fluoridation, especially in specific communities, might be part of a deliberate attempt to lower intelligence in order to create a more compliant and subservient population for the New World Order.

It follows a series of recent vindications for skeptics after propagandist media have been proven wrong in falsely declaring things like COVID vaccine hesitancy, the Russia-collusion hoax, the Hunter Biden laptop coverup and the Joe Biden mental acuity coverup/coup to be baseless “conspiracy theories” right up until the point that they were proven true.

If former President Donald Trump were to be reelected and allow Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to declassify files related to his family, several other such theories surrounding significant 20th-century milestones might also be exposed, including the decision to force out then-President Richard Nixon for threatening to reveal who killed his one-time campaign rival, former President John F. Kennedy.

U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.

It’s the first time a federal judge has made a determination about the neurodevelopmental risks to children of the recommended U.S. water fluoride level, said Ashley Malin, a University of Florida researcher who has studied the effect of higher fluoride levels in pregnant women.

She called it “the most historic ruling in the U.S. fluoridation debate that we’ve ever seen.”

The judge’s ruling is another striking dissent to a practice that has been hailed as one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century. Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Last month, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.

The EPA—a defendant in the lawsuit—argued that it wasn’t clear what impact fluoride exposure might have at lower levels. But the agency is required to make sure there is a margin between the hazard level and exposure level. And “if there is an insufficient margin, then the chemical poses a risk,” Chen wrote in his 80-page ruling Tuesday.

Simply put, the risk to health at exposure levels in United States drinking water is sufficiently high to trigger regulatory response by the EPA” under federal law, he wrote.

An EPA spokesperson, Jeff Landis, said the agency was reviewing the decision but offered no further comment.

In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and they continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later.

Fluoride can come from a number of sources, but drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say. Nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population currently gets fluoridated drinking water, according to CDC data.

Since 2015, federal health officials have recommended a fluoridation level of 0.7 milligrams per liter of water. For five decades before that, the recommended upper range was 1.2. The World Health Organization has set a safe limit for fluoride in drinking water of 1.5.

Separately, the EPA has a longstanding requirement that water systems cannot have more than 4 milligrams of fluoride per liter of water. That standard is designed to prevent skeletal fluorosis, a potentially crippling disorder which causes weaker bones, stiffness and pain.

But in the last two decades, studies have suggested a different problem: a link between fluoride and brain development. Researchers wondered about the impact on developing fetuses and very young children who might ingest water with baby formula. Studies in animals showed fluoride could impact neurochemistry cell function in brain regions responsible for learning, memory, executive function and behavior.

The court case, argued in U.S. District Court in San Francisco, started in 2017. The lead plaintiff was Food & Water Watch, a not-for-profit environmental advocacy organization. Chen paused the proceedings in 2020 to await the results of the National Toxicology Program report, but he heard lawyers’ arguments about the case earlier this year.

“In our view, the only effective way to eliminate the risk from adding fluoride chemicals to water is to stop adding them,” said Michael Connett, the plaintiffs’ lead attorney, in an email Wednesday.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 21:45

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Volkswagen Cuts Profit Forecast Again Amid Sliding Car Demand

Volkswagen Cuts Profit Forecast Again Amid Sliding Car Demand

Volkswagen AG lowered its profitability forecast for the second time this year due to sliding passenger vehicle demand, highlighting the bumpy transition to electric vehicles. Additionally, Germany’s economy is faltering, if not already in recession, and the pain has been widespread across the automotive sector. The economic slowdown in China has further pressured vehicle sales for luxury German automakers. 

The German car maker, known for producing Audi, Bentley, Cupra, Jetta, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, and Volkswagen brands, announced Friday that its forecast for operating return on sales – a closely watched measure of profitability – had been slashed to 5.6%, down from a forecast of 7% in July. VW lowered its expectations partly due to the expected closure costs of an Audi plant in Belgium. 

Bloomberg provided a snapshot of VW’s updated full-year guidance: 

  • Sees operating return on sales 5.6%, saw 6.5% to 7%, estimate 6.51% (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees vehicle deliveries 9 million units, estimate 8.1 million

  • Sees Automotive net cash flow EU2 billion, saw EU2.5 billion to EU4.5 billion, estimate EU3.27 billion

VW has been plagued by several issues, including slowing Chinese vehicle demand, rising competition in EVs, and a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. 

Our latest reporting on VW paints an ominous future for the legacy automaker: 

Then there’s this… 

Source: Bloomberg

Across Europe, vehicle sales are dramatically slowing. 

Source: Bloomberg

“The downturn in EVs is putting carmakers like VW and Renault SA at risk of hefty fines as tighter European Union fleet-emissions rules are set to kick in next year,” Bloomberg recently noted.

Meanwhile, what is critical to understand are ‘green’ (de-growth) policies pushed by elected and unelected far-left progressive officials that undermine Western economies, essentially making companies unable to compete in Asia. In China, energy is abundant and cheap, unlike in Germany. 

De-growth (climate) policies are strangling Western companies, while China constructs new coal plants at six times the rate of any other country, supplying its manufacturers with an abundance of cheap energy. How can the West possibly compete? The answer is… they can’t. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 21:20

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The IRA’s Unconstitutional Drug Price Controls

The IRA’s Unconstitutional Drug Price Controls

Authored by Roger D. Klein via RealClearPolicy,

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced the negotiated prices for the first 10 drugs of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) drug price negotiation program (DPNP). That same day, Vice President Harris stood alongside President Biden for their first joint appearance since Biden stepped down as the Democratic presidential nominee. At the campaign event, Harris touted the Medicare drug pricing scheme as evidence of their administration’s economic success. Her friends in the media have followed suit, applauding Harris’s “well-earned victory lap.”

However, as a number of pharmaceutical companies have argued in court, the IRA’s drug price negotiations are misnamed, unconstitutional price controls. In a series of lawsuits, drug companies have collectively argued the program illegally coerces pharmaceutical firms to accept massive discounts on 60 of the most successful medications sold to Medicare and Medicaid. The administration deceptively describes the “maximum fair price” for each drug as the product of a negotiation to avoid blame for the decreases in the supply of existing and newly discovered drugs these price controls are likely to cause.  

The first 10 drugs selected for price controls include treatments for diabetes, blood clots and prevention of strokes, heart failure, leukemia, arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and chronic kidney disease. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the IRA would result in a loss of 13 new drugs over 30 years. This is probably a substantial underestimate. Many pharmaceutical companies have already cut back on or cancelled development programs for new drugs, and a University of Chicago analysis predicts that as many as 79 new drugs and 188 indications would not be developed over the next 20 years This would result in 116 million years of life lost.

Manufacturers who choose not to participate in the DPNP would be excluded from providing any Part D or Part B drugs to Medicare beneficiaries. Nevertheless, aside from its fiction that the DPNP is a negotiation, the government has argued participation in the DPNP is voluntary because participation in Medicare is voluntary, an argument accepted by several circuit court judges. However, Medicare and Medicaid account for over 40 percent of pharmaceutical spending in the United States. Walking away from Medicare would be suicidal for any drug manufacturer. Further, there are program restrictions that do not permit ending participation at will. Instead, drugmakers that don’t accept Medicare dictated prices could face ruinous financial penalties – euphemistically labeled an excise tax – starting at 186 percent and rising to as high as 1900 percent of a drug’s total daily revenues from all sources, not just Medicare. Thus, pharmaceutical companies are given a Hobson’s choice. Participate under the government’s arbitrary and detrimental terms or cease to operate.

In addition to the DPNP and other provisions of the IRA such as mandated rebating of price rises in excess of inflation that are estimated to cost drug companies $288 billion over 10 years, the IRA creates serious financial risks for Part D insurance plans. Irrespective of the merits of lowering the cap on out-of-pocket costs, increased low income subsidies, and other benefits, their implementation has raised costs, creating premium price instability that will lead to an expected 21.5% increase in 2025 premiums. In response, and just weeks before the President and Vice President’s joint event, their administration announced a rescue package it is calling a “voluntary demonstration project,” aimed at achieving premium stabilization and protecting insurers.

Analogous to the DPNP, insurers have no practical alternative but to participate. As part of this program, taxpayers will fund an additional $10 billion in subsidies, masking increased costs and mitigating an already hefty 21.5% estimated increase in 2025 Part D premiums.  

To add insult to injury, most of the projected $266 billion in Medicare savings in pharmaceutical spending is being siphoned off as a downpayment on Democrats’ green new deal, rather than being applied toward lowering premiums or strengthening the Medicare program.

Millions of Americans depend on lifesaving prescription medications. These drugs are developed with enormous investments made at great financial risk. Policies that encourage competition among drugmakers will best achieve optimal pricing, maintain the supply of essential therapeutics, and encourage the development of novel medicines. The phony “negotiation” program forced on drug makers, the strain placed on Part D insurers, and other noxious provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act will do the opposite.

Roger D. Klein, M.D., J.D. is a faculty fellow at the Center for Law, Science and Innovation at the Sandra Day O’Connor School of Law. He was previously Chief Medical Officer of OmniSeq, Inc., which was acquired by LabCorp. A former advisor to HHS, FDA, CMS,  and CDC, he completed his medical training at Yale School Medicine and received his law degree from Yale Law School.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 20:55

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Goldman Says War Risk Premium Is Missing From Oil Markets 

Goldman Says War Risk Premium Is Missing From Oil Markets 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly in New York this morning, stating that Israel has “no choice” but to fight back against Iran-backed Hezbollah. His remarks come as tensions rise between Israeli officials and the Biden-Harris administration over the inaction this week of instituting a 21-day ceasefire-fire while Israel Defense Forces gear up for a potential ground invasion of Lebanon. 

“As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right, to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely,” Netanyahu told the General Assembly, adding, “And that’s exactly what we’re doing.”

During his speech, Netanyahu showed world leaders two maps of the Middle East, pointing out the difference between a “blessing” and a “curse.”

“Now look at this second map,” he said, pointing out, “It’s a map of a curse. It’s a map of an arc of terror that Iran has created and imposed from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean.” 

Netanyahu added: “There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach – that’s true for the whole of the Middle East.”

Even with broadening war risks in the Middle East, the geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude has all but evaporated – overshadowed by economic slowdown fear in China and the US. Not even the China stimulus story earlier this week could ignite crude prices. 

On Thursday, we noted the usual anonymous sources reporting by corporate media were back, and pressured Brent crude prices lower. The first report was published by Reuters earlier this month. In that report, journos cited anonymous sources that said OPEC+ was set to proceed with a production hike in October. Then an FT report on Thursday joined the anonymous-source-citing oil manipulation game with the news that the Saudis were ready to ditch the unofficial price target of $100 a barrel for crude.

Also, recent headlines surrounding a possible ceasefire in the Middle East have pressured oil prices. We must ask what exactly ‘the powers that be’ are afraid of?

Maybe Goldman analyst Lindsay Matcham’s note to clients this morning shows precisely what ‘the powers that be’ are afraid of… 

“We’re continuing to keep a close eye on the conflict in the Middle East amid intensifying tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.” 

Matcham added:

“We think further escalation in the conflict could have material market implications, especially if it involves a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would likely lead to a spike in oil prices here.” 

Strait of Hormuz…

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Lina Thomas outlines four positive near-term drivers for crude markets:

  • The easing in global policy.

  • Inventories are still drawing.

  • Positioning and valuation remain low.

  • Oil markets are not pricing a significant risk of geopolitical disruptions.

Fast forward to noon today, Brent prices jumped to the mid-point of the $72 handle after IDF airstrikes targeted Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut. 

Broadening war risks come as speculators have placed record bearish bets in crude markets. 

Brent prices hover around $72/bbl in late morning trading in the US. 

The looming question for Brent traders is: When will the war risk premium return?

A potential IDF invasion of Lebanon could provoke Iran, although there are currently no signs of Tehran’s imminent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Given the Israel-Hezbollah escalation in conflict to the end of the week, traders should monitor these events as traders hold record net-bearish bets on crude.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 20:30

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Despite Escalation, Israel Secures $8.7BN Military Aid Package From Washington

Despite Escalation, Israel Secures $8.7BN Military Aid Package From Washington

Via The Cradle

Israel said on Thursday it had secured an $8.7 billion aid package from the US government to support its ongoing military assaults on Lebanon and Gaza and to maintain a “qualitative military edge in the region,” Reuters reported.

The package includes $3.5 billion for critical military purchases and $5.2 billion for air defense systems, including the Iron Dome anti-missile system, David’s Sling, and an advanced laser system.

Getty Images

US support for Israel’s missile defense systems is crucial to shielding Israeli military installations and infrastructure.

While Israeli warplanes have devastated south and east Lebanon with airstrikes since Monday, killing over 600 Lebanese and Syrians, Hezbollah has hit numerous targets in the vicinity of the city of the Israeli city of Haifa, as well as an Israeli intelligence base on the outskirts of Tel Aviv in central Israel.

Israel also needs US munitions and financial support to continue its horrific bombing campaign of Gaza, which is nearing its twelfth month and has reportedly killed over 40,000 people and destroyed large swathes of the crowded strip.

The aid announcement came after a meeting at the Pentagon between Eyal Zamir, the director general of Israel’s defense ministry, and US defense officials, including acting Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Amanda Dory.

“This substantial investment will significantly strengthen critical systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling while supporting the continued development of an advanced high-powered laser defense system currently in its later stages of development,” Israel’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The deal illustrates the “strong and enduring strategic partnership between Israel and the United States and the ironclad commitment to Israel’s security,” the statement added.

Reuters reported in late June that Tel Aviv’s allies in Washington had sent more than 10,000 highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of Hellfire missiles since the start of the war in Gaza last October.

The news agency added that Washington had transferred at least 14,000 of the MK-84 2,000-pound bombs, 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire precision-guided air-to-ground missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, 2,600 air-dropped small-diameter bombs, and other munitions.

Since October of last year, news channels and social media sites have shown a steady stream of videos and images of Palestinian men, women, and children who have been torn apart by US bombs.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 20:05

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US Vs China: Which Country Is The World’s #1 Superpower?

US Vs China: Which Country Is The World’s #1 Superpower?

Today, the global balance of power is shaped by many forces, including economic strength, trade, and a country’s defense-industrial base.

While the U.S. and China stand as two great powers, as Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld details below, their sources of strength vary significantly. America has unrivaled status in capital markets, and its reserve currency status shows little sign of being overtaken anytime soon. Meanwhile, China’s influence in international trade has grown substantially, now being the top trading partner for 120 countries worldwide.

This graphic compares the U.S. and China across eight key measures of power, based on analysis from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024.

Methodology: Measuring the Strength of Nations

For this analysis, Ray Dalio identified eight core pillars that measure a nation’s different types of strength. These eight categories are:

  1. Trade

  2. Innovation and Technology

  3. Education

  4. Economic Output

  5. Military

  6. Financial Center

  7. Competitiveness

  8. Reserve Currency Status

Scores for these categories were quantified using Z-scores, which tells you how far a data point is from the average of the dataset, using the typical amount of variation (a standard deviation) in the data as a measuring stick:

  • Z-score of 0 = data point is at the average

  • Z-score of 1 = data point is one standard deviation above the average

Is the U.S. or China More Powerful?

Below, we show how the U.S. and China measure across each metric of country power in 2024, along with their overall strength score which sees the U.S. (0.89 overall strength score) beat out China (0.80 overall strength score):

As we can see, both countries are closely matched across certain metrics like innovation and technology along with economic output, while also featuring wide differences in categories like reserve currency status and overall competitiveness.

When looking at tech and innovation, America is home to the world’s largest tech companies driving AI advancements, China is quickly developing much of the intellectual property in new industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing.

In terms of economic output and strength, the gap between America and China’s GDP stands at about $10 trillion. China could overtake America’s economy by 2035 assuming 5% in annual GDP growth, however, Ray Dalio’s own estimates of 10-year real GDP growth have China at 4% annual growth. The country’s fragile property sector and weak consumer demand are its biggest obstacles for its future growth prospects.

Comparing education, while America’s stagnating high-school educational system is a source of concern, its top-ranking universities play a key role in its education score. Meanwhile, China is home to 100 elite universities, although it too has an unequal education system that disproportionately impacts lower-income households.

When it comes to military power, the U.S. has long being a global leader in defense spending, outpacing China by more than twofold as of 2022. Yet, this position is deteriorating. Today, China’s military modernization means that its defense capabilities are neck and neck with America, and perhaps even greater than the U.S. according to sources like the Global Firepower Index.

Moreover, China is increasingly growing alliances with Russia, Iran, and North Korea through arms transfers and battlefield exercises, posing a greater risk to America’s military dominance.

To learn more about this topic from a labor force perspective, check out this graphic on the growth of working age populations around the world’s major economies.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 19:40

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House Intelligence Committee Sounds Alarm On Chinese Shopping App Temu

House Intelligence Committee Sounds Alarm On Chinese Shopping App Temu

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Republicans on Sept. 25 requested a briefing by the FBI and U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) over shopping app Temu, whose owners reportedly have ties with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The Temu logo is displayed on a laptop in San Anselmo, Calif., on Feb. 26, 2024. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee said they are concerned about the “growing national security and personal data concerns surrounding” Temu and its parent company, Pinduoduo, according to a statement. A letter noting their concerns, signed by every GOP lawmaker on the panel, was directed to FBI Director Christopher Wray and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

Those Republicans, led by Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), said that they are flagging Temu and Pinduoduo for “possible trade, slave labor, and national security concerns.”

The letter highlighted their concerns about Temu and cited a New York Post report from June showing that senior executives at the company and Pinduoduo have an affiliation with the CCP. That report said that the firm’s top leaders include a former senior official in the CCP’s State Administration for Market Regulation and a former official with the regulation department of the Shanghai Administration for Market Regulation, among others.

Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin also told Fox Business in July that Temu is operated by Pinduoduo Inc., which is based in Shanghai and includes “former Chinese communist officials” in its ranks.

Other concerns include that the Pinduoduo app was suspended by Google last year because of malware concerns.

“Off-Play versions of this app that have been found to contain malware have been enforced on via Google Play Protect,” a Google spokesperson said in a statement last year.

When it was removed from the Google Play store, Pinduoduo said it was told by the tech giant that its “current version is not compliant with Google’s Policy,” adding that Google “has not shared more details.”

An Epoch Times review of the Google Play store shows that the Pinduoduo app currently isn’t listed, although Temu remains available and is one of the most widely downloaded apps on the Android platform.

“Due to the above cited incidents and many others, we are concerned about the protection of [Americans’] data,” the lawmakers wrote in their letter. “Analogous to Congress’ action on TikTok, the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese national security laws, and [Americans’] data must be understood.”

The two federal agencies were asked whether the FBI has provided any intelligence to the SEC and whether the SEC has requested information regarding Temu or Pinduoduo relating to the companies’ reported ties with the CCP, malware concerns.

A report from research company Grizzly Research months ago said that it believes Temu has already illegally sold or intends to illegally sell “stolen data from Western country customers to sustain a business model that is otherwise doomed for failure.”

Temu is estimated to be losing $30 per order. Its ad spending and shipping costs (1–2 weeks from China, expedited to U.S. delivery) are astronomical,” the report said.

The Epoch Times contacted Temu for comment on Sept. 25 about the House Republicans’ letter but didn’t receive a reply by publication time.

In July, the company told The Epoch Times that it rejected allegations made by Griffin in his lawsuit.

“The allegations in the lawsuit are based on misinformation circulated online, primarily from a short-seller, and are totally unfounded. We categorically deny the allegations and will vigorously defend ourselves,” Temu said. “We understand that as a new company with an innovative supply chain model, some may misunderstand us at first glance and not welcome us.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 17:40

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Biden-Harris Admin Let A Staggering 650,000 Criminal Illegals Loose In The US: ICE

Biden-Harris Admin Let A Staggering 650,000 Criminal Illegals Loose In The US: ICE

New data from US Customs and Immigration Enforcement (ICE) reveals that over 650,000 migrants with criminal histories were let loose in the United States between ‘mid-May 2023 through the end of July 2024.’

Members of Venezuelan gang tren de aragua

In a response to a March letter from Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), deputy DHS Director Patrick J. Lechleitner writes:

“As of July 21, 2024, there were 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories on ICE’s national docket, which includes those detained by ICE and on the agency’s non-detained docket. Of those, 435,729 are convicted criminals, and 226,847 have pending criminal charges.”

Of those, more than 13,000 illegals convicted of homicide and 15,000 convicted of sexual assault are roaming the country.

“To see the numbers on paper, it just goes to show of how real this threat is…Americans deserve to feel safe,” Gonzales told Fox News.

ICE called out so-called “sanctuary” cities as part of the problem, noting in their response:

“ICE recognizes that some jurisdictions are concerned that cooperating with federal immigration officials will erode trust with immigrant communities and make it harder for local law enforcement to serve those populations. However, ‘sanctuary’ policies can end up shielding dangerous criminals, who often victimize those same communities.”

The letter also stressed DHS’ efforts to remove illegals; “From mid-May 2023 through the end of July 2024, DHS removed or returned more than 893,600 individuals, including more than 138,300 individuals in family units. The majority of all individuals encountered at the Southwest Border over the past three years have been removed, returned, or expelled.”

the Biden administration came under fire for releasing many migrants who came to the U.S. border into the interior, which coincided with a sharp drop in deportations as it focused on prioritizing public safety and national security threats. There were 142,580 removals in FY 23, up considerably from 72,177 in FY 22 and 59,011 in FY 21, but still down from the highs of 267,258 under the Trump administration in FY 19. –Fox News

It may be shocking to hear that the Biden-Harris administration is actively releasing tens of thousands of criminal illegal aliens into our communities, but their own numbers conclusively prove this to be the case. This defies all common sense,” House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green told Fox News Digital. “Under President Biden and his ‘border czar,’ Vice President Harris, DHS law enforcement has been directed to mass-release illegal aliens whom they know have criminal convictions or are facing charges for serious crimes—and these dangerous, destructive individuals are making their way into every city and state in this country. How many more Americans need to die or be victimized before this administration is forced to abide by the laws they swore to uphold? This is madness. It is something no civilized, well-functioning society should tolerate.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 17:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/vtlEHpg Tyler Durden

David Stockman On Why The Biden-Harris “Strong” Economy Claim Is A Big Lie

David Stockman On Why The Biden-Harris “Strong” Economy Claim Is A Big Lie

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

There is only one way to rescue America’s faltering economy and that’s the wholesale abandonment of Washington’s reckless spending, borrowing and printing policies of the last quarter century. These policies did not remotely attain their ostensible goals of more growth, more jobs and more purchasing power in worker pay envelopes. What they did do, of course, was to freight down the main street economy with crushing debts, dangerous financial bubbles, chronic inflation and stagnating living standards.

For want of doubt, go straight to the most basic economic metric we have – real compensation per labor hour. The latter metric not only deletes the inflation from the pay figures, but also measures the totality of worker compensation, including benefits for health care, retirement, vacation, disability, sick leave and other fringes.

Needless to say, the purple line below makes crystal clear that historic worker gains have ground to a complete halt.

Per Annum Increase In Real Hourly Compensation:

  • Q1 1947 to Q1 2001: +1.79%.
  • Q1 2001 To Q1 2020: +0.71%.
  • Q1 2020 to Q2 2024: -0.01%.

It doesn’t get any cleaner than this. No matter how the White House, the Fed and the fawning financial press cherry pick the “incoming data” you flat-out can’t say the US economy is “strong” when the growth of the inflation-adjusted pay envelope of 161 million workers has deflated to the vanishing point. Indeed, it has literally been dead in the water for the last 52 months running.

 Real Nonfarm Worker Compensation per Hour, 1947 to 2024

Moreover, the above graph covers all workers, from the bottom to the top end of the wage scale. But when you look at the most recent trends for the highest paid jobs in the durable goods manufacturing sector, the stagnation has been even more dramatic. There has been zero net gain in real compensation per hour in this high-pay sector during the last 15 years; and an obvious contributor to that baleful outcome has been the surge of inflation since 2020 when Washington went off the deep-end with fiscal stimmies and upwards of $5 trillion of newly minted central bank credit.

And we do mean deep-end. During the one-year pandemic stimmy bacchanalia, Washington spent $6.5 trillion on a one-time basis or 150% of the regular Federal budget for war, welfare and everything else as of 2019. At the same time, the Fed printed $5 trillion of new credit during the 30 months between October 2019 and March 2022, which was more than it had printed during the first 106 years of its existence!

In any event, these reckless fiscal and monetary policies had long since caused much of the high productivity, high-pay industrial sector to be off-shored. Yet that happened not because free market capitalism has a death wish in America. It happened because Washington policies generated so much internal cost and nominal wage inflation that vendors of goods to the retail markets had no choice except to source from far lower dollar cost venues abroad, and most especially China and its associated supply chains.

Inflation-Adjusted Compensation in Durable Goods Manufacturing, 2010 to 2024

Nor is this just a manufacturing sector issue. The fact is, stagnation and shrinkage has afflicted the entire goods-producing sector of the US economy, including energy production and mining and gas and electric utility production. As shown below, during the heyday of American economic growth after WWII, these sectors were the motor force of prosperity. Between 1947 and 1978:

  • Real hourly earnings (purple line) in good-producing doubled, rising by 23% per annum.
  • Total hours worked (black line) increased by nearly 20%.

Since that late 1970s peak, however, no cigar with respect to either pay rates or total hours worked. In fact, by 2023–

  • Real hourly pay was down by 2% versus 1979, meaning it had stagnated for 45 years!
  • Total hours worked were even more debilitated, having been rolled all the way back to the late 1940s level.

That’s right. There were once 24 million high paying jobs in the good-producing sectors, which represented more than 28% of total US employment of 90 million in 1979. But by 2023, total hours worked in the goods-producing sectors have fallen to levels first achieved 75 years earlier.

Goods-Producing Sector: Index Of Real Hourly Wages Versus Index of Total Hours Worked, 1947 to 2023

In light of the above, all of the Biden-Harris palaver about a “strong” economy actually gives the concept of humbug a bad name. Like the claims of the Trump Administration before them, it is based on such egregious manipulation and cherry-picking of the data as to amount to the classic Big Lie, if there ever was one.

The fact is, neither every job counted by the BLS nor every dollar of GDP computed by the Commerce Department is created equal when it comes to economic significance. And it is exactly low pay/low productivity “jobs” and government-fueled “GDP” which has accounted for much of the ballyhooed “strength” of the US economy in recent years and decades.

For instance, at the time that good-producing employment peaked in 1979, jobs in the low-pay, minimum wage, episodic employment Leisure & Hospitality sector were just beginning to attain lift-off. During the next 45-years, hours worked in the later sector rose by +128%, even as the index for goods-producing hours per the black lines (both above and below) fell by -18%.

Needless to say, the economic weight of the purple line is only a fraction of that implicated in the black line. For instance, hours worked in the Leisure & Hospitality (L&I) sector average just 23.9 per week and average wages currently stand at $19.66 per hour. This computes to an annual pay equivalent of just $24,400 per L&I “job”.

By contrast, the equivalent figures for the goods-producing sector are 40.6 hours per week, $31.26 per hour pay rates and an annual equivalent of $66,000 in gross pay. That is to say, in terms of economic throw-weight a L&I “job” is equal to only 37% of a goods-producing “job”.

Index of Total Hours Worked: Leisure & Hospitality Sector Versus Good-Producing, 1978 to 2023

Not surprisingly, therefore, the Biden-Harris claims about 15.9 million jobs “created” on their watch should be taken with a grain of salt.

In the first place, about 9.1 million of these purported new jobs or 58% were actually “born-again jobs”. That is, jobs that were lost during the massive lay-offs triggered by UniParty lockdowns during 2020-2021 that have been subsequently recovered. Specifically, the total nonfarm job count peaked at 152.05 million jobs in February 2020 versus the 158.78 million total posted in August 2024.

So the net gain of 6.73 million jobs is a far cry from the nearly 16 million gain ballyhooed by Biden-Harris, which includes all the born-again ones.

But that’s not the half of it. When you look at the net gain of 6.73 million jobs, only 763,000 or 11% were in the good-producing sector. By contrast, 2.54 million or 38% of the net new jobs on the Biden-Harris Watch were in the low-pay or low productivity L&H, retail, government or private education and health sectors.

Indeed, these data remind that the GDP numbers reflect the same misleading distortions. Since Q1 2007, for instance, the health care sector has expanded in real terms by 57.4% compared to just 35.7% for the balance of real GDP.  Likewise, since Q4 2020, the health care sector has expanded by 17.2% in real terms or nearly double the 9.8% gain for all other components of real GDP.

Index Of Real Health Care PCE Versus Total Real GDP, Q1 2007 to Q2 2024

Then again, the health care sector is overwhelmingly a ward of the state via Medicare/Medicaid and upwards of $300 billion per year in tax subsidies for employer-sponsored health plans. So it’s a case of “if you spend it, it will grow.”

*  *  *

The truth is, we’re on the cusp of an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. And most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free report with all the details on how to survive an economic collapse. Click here to download the PDF now.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/zgXMv7t Tyler Durden