Money Market Funds See Biggest Inflows Since COVID As Fed F**kery Turns Huge Bank Deposit Outflows Into Inflow

Money Market Funds See Biggest Inflows Since COVID As Fed F**kery Turns Huge Bank Deposit Outflows Into Inflow

Money Market funds saw a massive $121BN inflow last week – the biggest since the COVID lockdown crisis (and bigger than during the SVB collapse) – lifting total AUM to a new record high of $6.424 TN…

Source: Bloomberg

The tsunami of cash came primarily from institutional funds (+$113BN) in the week following The Fed rate-cut and right before the Chinese unleashed their own cash tsunami.

At the same time, US banks saw deposits (seasonally-adjusted) rise by $44.2BN in the week ending 9/18, raising total deposits to the highest since Dec 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

BUT, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total bank deposits fell $53BN in the week ending 9/18…

Source: Bloomberg

But here comes the big Fed fuckery…

Excluding foreign deposits, US Bank deposits (on a non-seasonally-adjusted) tumbled $65.8BN while on a SA-basis, deposits rose $35.5BN… (a $110BN spread out of nowhere)…

Source: Bloomberg

Breaking it down, on an SA basis large banks saw $24.9BN inflows and small banks $10.6BN inflows. On an NSA basis, large banks suffered a $45.8BN deposits outflow and small banks a $20BN outflow.

Once again we ask – what exactly is a seasonally-adjusted deposit?

On the other side of the ledger, loan volumes increased for the 3rd straight week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that bank reserves at The Fed tumbled to their lowest since October 2023 this week as US equity market capitalization hit a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

That’s quite a decoupling from a historically tight relationship.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 16:40

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Kunstler: America Is “A Headless Horseman Riding Blindly Into Chaos”

Kunstler: America Is “A Headless Horseman Riding Blindly Into Chaos”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The Shadow of the Shadow

“As shocking as it may sound, the institution of the State itself is the real enemy. It’s time to carefully analyze your relation to it.”

– Doug Casey

You have to wonder: has there ever been a country that marched off to war with no head-of-state at the top of its war machine? It’s exactly that bad in our country, with a broken animatronic Halloween scarecrow popping in-and-out of the White House to yell incoherently at election campaign events for a putative successor too scared of the predicament she’s in to think straight. Really, no one is in charge — and if any of the leading actors on the scene really were, the situation could easily get worse.

Hence, the brainless wish roiling through the NSC, State Department, and the various shadow councils of the intel emeriti to lob long-range missiles into Russia, apparently heedless of any consequences. America, you are a headless horseman riding blindly into chaos.

In fact, the entire Democratic Party and its Deep State intel blob partners have melted down into a desperate mob of political criminals frantic to evade accounting for their acts. So then, setting the world on fire is all they have left, a fitting act of revenge for a faction thwarted in its mad drive to merely wreck the United States for the sake of “social justice” and “equity.”

The Democrats of 2024 made exactly the same mistake that their predecessors, the Jacobins, made in France back in 1794: they just couldn’t tell when they’d gone too far with their insults against the public interest and common decency. Their insults derived from the age-old human impulse to demolish society due to life being unfair, later codified in Marxian doctrine, and then made into a play-book by Saul Alinsky (with annotations by Antonio Gramsci, Richard Cloward, and Frances Fox Piven

As the French Revolution ground on and on, by 1793 the Jacobins gained control of the Committee of Public Safety which actually carried out policy, while endless quarrels occupied the National Convention — the then-current legislative body. The Jacobins’ policy was insane, just as the policy of open borders, lawfare, war, censorship, pharma-terrorism, climate hustles, and drag queens in the schools is insane under our modern Jacobins, the Democrats. (Notice the Democrats’ constant invoking of “safety” and “safe spaces” as a similar rhetorical device for justifying their deeds and cowing the public.)

The Committee of Public Safety sought to remake French society by turning its cultural norms upside-down and by killing as many of its political opponents as possible. Thus, the Reign of Terror when, for a whole year, heads rolled and rolled off the guillotine in the Place de la Concorde, usually without benefit of a trial. The ghoulish extravaganza of gore and death grossed-out those in the country who had not lost their minds.

One night in July 1794, as the Jacobin boss, Robespierre, took to the rostrum in the Convention for the umpteenth time to denounce his enemies and announce new death sentences, members in the chamber commenced throwing food at him. That was the turning point, and it turned so hard and fast that France was amazed. Within forty-eight hours, Robespierre and many of his cohorts got beheaded under the “national razor,” and that was the end of Jacobinism and all its insane measures to wreck what was left of society after five years of revolution.

Our Democratic Party Jacobins have been harder to defeat because government these days is vastly larger and more complex, and the equivalent of the Committee of Public Safety is now a huge network of cadres toiling in scores of federal agencies and associated NGOs financed by those agencies (or by their billionaire henchmen such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Reid Hoffman). Insane as they are, many public officials understand their culpability for the treasons and insults of recent years. They live in fear of prosecution and, short of that, of losing their cushy sinecures in the colossal bureaucracy that is bankrupting us.

There are many in our country today who are also not insane, just as in France circa 1794. This is actually the chief appeal of Mr. Trump, though he often expresses it clumsily, coming, as he does, from the rough and exacting world of property development, which is full of rough people in rough building trades using rough language. Secondarily, Mr. Trump represents leadership — the sheer idea that an actual person should be an executive-in-charge of a national polity — and it appears that a majority of the people in this land are finally sick of a faceless blob ruling madly from the shadows. Thirdly, Mr. Trump has become a national father figure, a titanic offense to a party run by women with daddy issues and to their Marxist allies dogmatically bent on destroying the family (along with every other institution). As it happens, countries need fathers, both actual and symbolic. What a surprise!

In the mad effort to evade judgment for their acts, the Democrats and their blob cadres are either trying to kill Mr. Trump directly, or are looking the other way while other nefarious parties attempt the wicked business. So far, no cigar. Who knows what they’ll try next: a surface-to-air missile at his airplane. . .a directed-energy weapon. . . a poisoned cheeseburger. . .?

The candidate himself seems a little tinged these days with the same aura of dauntless resignation that was seen in Martin Luther King and the first Bobby Kennedy in 1968 — who both went about their business trying to rescue our country from war and wickedness despite the threats against them. Many upright, intelligent, bold figures stand with and behind Mr. Trump this time, people capable and willing to pick up the flag in the event it becomes necessary. Do not fear.

Meanwhile, you have to also wonder: what on earth possessed the Democrats to maneuver Kamala Harris into this race? Everyone in the party and the blob must know she doesn’t have an agile mind — beyond some ability for reciting parboiled slogans — nor much acquaintance with the workings of the world besides her dwindled wiles in political amour, and that she may actually have a drinking problem. She is left, finally, with no one to cheerlead for her but the harpies on The View and the degenerates on CNN and The New York Times who all know the score but are too invested in years of their own mendacity to even attempt to come clean.

Chatter arises that the awaited “October surprise” will involve “Joe Biden” resigning from office to make way for Kamala to become the First Woman President just before election day, affording her, supposedly, a magisterial prestige in the final leg of the race. Don’t bet on that. When he resigns, “JB” loses his power of the pardon. If he exercises it on the eve of resignation and lets son Hunter, brothers James, Frank, and other family members (including himself) off the hook for their global money-grubbing exploits, it will only besmirch Ms. Harris by association. He has to hang in office until after Nov 6, no matter how the election turns, and then he can pardon what’s left of his brains out.

Before we even get to that point, all you have to worry about are unaccountable government factotums doing something over in Russia that will make Mr. Putin want to turn the USA into an ashtray.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 16:20

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Gold & Crypto Rip As US Stocks Shrug Off Shanghai Money-Drop

Gold & Crypto Rip As US Stocks Shrug Off Shanghai Money-Drop

One of these things is not like the others…

Source: Bloomberg

Chynaaah crushed it this week as Beijing unleashed the bazooka to Make China Wealthy Again after one of our best-timed calls ever…

European equities benefited more from the apparent liquidity-gasm coming from the east, but US equities were mixed on the week with Small Caps actually ending lower and Nasdaq managing only a 1% gain (well offthe 2.5% gains at the peak mid-week)…

Not exactly the kind of week the bull shad hoped for when China dropped their Headlines.

Mag7 stocks ended the week unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

China Internet stocks soared 32% MTD, while Mag7 stocks are up just 3%…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks managed decent gains on the week (thanks to Thursday and Friday)…

Source: Bloomberg

Growth and Value were equally (mildly) impressed this week

Source: Bloomberg

Fed rate-cut expectations chopped around but were basically unchanged on the week (thanks to a dovish shift today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed on the week and only modestly changed close-to-close on the week with the short-end outperforming (2Y -3bps, 30Y +1bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened notably to start the week, then flattened aggressively yesterday, bouncing back off unchanged on the week today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar weakened for the 4th straight week, closing at its lowest since Dec 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied for the 3rd straight week, breaking to new record highs before today’s sell-off…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin also rallied the 3rd straight week, breaking above $66,000 today…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum rallied off January lows and broke above $2700 this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite all the stimmies and WW3 risk, oil prices were lower on the week (of course)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, macro growth data is surprising to the upside, and macro inflation data is surprising to the downside…

Source: Bloomberg

Does that look like an environment that needed a 50bps rate-cut? Or that needs 75-100bps more by the end of the year?

Perhaps this is why gold and crypto is rallying hard…

Source: Bloomberg

US Sovereign risk exploding higher… did The Fed cut rates to rescue the Treasury?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 16:00

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Jersey Shore Wind Power Project Stalls After Having A “Hard Time” Finding Someone To Manufacture Turbine Blades

Jersey Shore Wind Power Project Stalls After Having A “Hard Time” Finding Someone To Manufacture Turbine Blades

There has been tons of controversy about wind farm projects on the Jersey shore, with residents in beaches like Brigantine against the initiatives, while others argue for implementing the clean energy.

Turns it out may be a moot point: one project is having “a hard time finding someone to manufacture blades for its turbines”, local radio station NJ 101.5 reported this week.

We guess when you focus too much on green virtue signaling and ignore the fact that the country doesn’t produce or manufacture anything anymore, there’s eventually consequences. 

The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities has granted Leading Light Wind a pause on its offshore wind project until Dec. 20, as the developers struggle to secure necessary turbine components, the report says

The project, led by Chicago’s Invenergy and New York-based energyRE, is planned for 40 miles off Long Beach Island and includes up to 100 turbines, expected to power 1 million homes.

Approved in January, the project faced a setback when GE Vernova, one of the three main turbine manufacturers, decided not to provide the turbines initially planned for use. Another option, Vestas, was ruled out, and the only remaining manufacturer, Siemens Gamesa, raised its prices substantially in June.

Invenergy said in a statement: “The stay enables continued discussions with the BPU and supply chain partners regarding the industry-wide market shifts. We will continue to advance project development activities during this time.”

And straight from the spin room, Christine Guhl-Sadovy, president of the utilities board told NJ 101.5 that the delay would “help the project move forward”. 

She commented: “We are committed in New Jersey to our offshore wind goals. This action will allow Invenergy to find a suitable wind turbine supplier. We look forward to delivering on the project that will help grow our clean energy workforce and contribute to clean energy generation for the state.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 15:40

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Votes For 3rd-Party Presidential Candidates Won’t Count: Georgia Supreme Court

Votes For 3rd-Party Presidential Candidates Won’t Count: Georgia Supreme Court

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Votes in Georgia for third-party presidential candidates Cornel West, an independent, and Claudia De la Cruz, a socialist, will not count because the two are not qualified to appear on the ballot, the Supreme Court of Georgia ruled unanimously on Sept. 25.

The state’s highest court overruled an earlier decision by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger that had lowered the signature threshold needed in petitions for ballot access to 7,500.

Georgia—which then-presidential candidate Joe Biden won by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020—is one of multiple states where Democrats have sought to prevent third-party and independent candidates from siphoning votes away from Vice President Kamala Harris in November.

Democrats argued in the case that West and De la Cruz failed to qualify in the battleground state because their 16 presidential electors did not each submit a separate petition with the 7,500 signatures needed to access Georgia’s ballots.

Instead, only one petition per candidate was submitted, as specified by Georgia’s secretary of state.

In August, a state administrative law judge ruled that West and De la Cruz were disqualified from Georgia’s ballot because their electors failed to meet the qualification requirements under Georgia’s Election Code.

That ruling was then overruled by the secretary of state, who said both West and De la Cruz’s electors had qualified under Georgia law for the office of presidential elector.

In September, two different superior court judges reviewing the challenges reversed Raffensperger’s decision after finding that their electors hadn’t filed the proper paperwork.

The Supreme Court of Georgia agreed with the later decisions, writing in its ruling that the superior courts “correctly concluded that neither West’s nor De la Cruz’s electors satisfied the statutory requirements for their respective independent candidates to appear on Georgia’s ballot for the office of President of the United States.”

“As a result, the remedies the superior courts ordered are affirmed,” the court wrote.

Response to Ruling

The ruling means Georgia voters will have a choice of four presidential candidates: Harris, Republican nominee former President Donald Trump, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein.

Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians automatically qualify for elections in Georgia.

West, a political activist and academic, announced in October 2023 that he would leave the Green Party to continue his 2024 presidential campaign as an independent. His running mate is Melina Abdullah, an activist and co-founder of the Black Lives Matter chapter in Los Angeles.

De la Cruz is the nominee for the Party of Socialism and Liberation but technically qualified for the Georgia ballot as an independent alongside her running mate, Karina Garcia.

“Democratic Party lawyers and the Republican-majority Supreme Court worked together to suppress democracy,” De la Cruz said in a statement.

”This unjust ruling is a reminder of why it is so urgent to build an alternative outside the two-party system.”

A spokesman for West’s campaign urged voters to still choose him despite the court’s ruling.

“His name is still appearing on the ballot,” Edwin DeJesus said. “We encourage all voters supporting our campaign to cast their vote for Cornel West in Georgia.”

The Epoch Times contacted Georgia’s secretary of state for comment but didn’t receive a reply by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 15:20

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Mystery Of Upward GDP Revision Solved: You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet

Mystery Of Upward GDP Revision Solved: You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet

Something strange happened yesterday when the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the final estimate of Q2 GDP data: as part of the release, Biden’s Dept of Commerce run by Gina Raimondo, which also runs the BEA, reported that GDP in since 2020 had been revised markedly higher (with the exception of H2 2023) …

… even though banks such as Goldman warned of, and expected, a significantly negative revision to historical GDP numbers.

So what happened?

Recall that about a year ago, questions started to swirl around the record divergence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP, or also known as Gross Domestic Output) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which unlike GDP also captures various interest payments, mostly to and from the Federal Reserve.

Ironically, back in September 2023, JPMorgan expected that GDP would catch down to GDI, resulting in a much weaker GDP print. That did not happen, because the Biden admin came up with a last minute sticksave that revised historical data to make it seem the US was stronger than previously thought.

Fast forward to this week, when Goldman was looking at the same gap, and also at the divergence between various GDP components as reported and their revisions, and also expected that historical GDP would be revised much lower (also catching  down to GDI). That too did not happen, because the Biden admin… well, it pretty much did the same thing again.

What did happen, is that not only was GDI revised sharply higher, effectively closing the record divergence between the two series by boosting various interest income assumptions of GDI.

There’s more: after the release of today’s Personal Income and Spending data, we found just why Goldman was so wrong in its (correct) assumption that US GDP should be revised lower based on historical data.

The reason for Goldman’s erroneous forecast and the unexpected “boost” in US economic growth is because Dept of Commerce head Gina Raimondo, the same person who one month ago told ABC that she was unfamiliar with the Bureau of Labor (which had just slashed historical US jobs by over 800K) and one of the most political operatives of the Biden admin, decided to drastically revise the two most important data sets propping up the US economy: personal income and personal spending.

First, as shown in the chart below, personal income was unexpectedly revised about $800 billion higher, as a result of not just an increase in what the government believes was interest and dividend income, but also government handouts (i.e., personal current transfer receipts rising by over $200 billion) and also a $293 billion cumulative increase in wages and salaries. In total, Disposable personal income was revised from just under $21 trillion (annualized) to $21.8 trillion.

Spending was also revised higher, if to a lesser extent: the August number for Personal outlays was revised higher by about $350 billion, from $20.38 trillion in July to $20.73 trillion in the revised data, reflecting a reduction in spending on goods offset by much higher increase in spending on services.

To summarize: disposable personal income (after tax) was revised 3.8% higher to $21.8 trillion, while personal spending was revised higher by about half that, or 1.7%, to $20.7 trillion.

And since the difference between how much you make and how much you spend is also called savings, we can finally get to the bottom of how the US economy magically grew in the past several years instead of shrinking more: it turns out that, when some bureaucrat in Gina Raimondo’s Bureau of Economic Analysis decided to click on a mouse button in recent weeks perhaps in (political) response to the dramatic plunge in revised jobs, Americans suddenly became much wealthier… if only in some Dept of Commerce spreadsheet.

You see, when subtracting the revised personal spending from the revised personal income, what you get is the revised savings of US consumers, which as of today’s deus ex revision has almost doubled, rising from $600 billion in July to $1.1 trillion in August!

Yes, dear Americans, rejoice for a spreadsheet revision means  you are all now half a trillion bucks richer!

Finally, we can also calculate the revised personal savings rate, which looks like this.

What this chart shows is remarkable: instead of dropping to a near record low where it was according tot he pre-revised income/spending data just last month – all it took was one assumption about the trajectory of income, spending, and savings, in the post-covid era, to make it seem that US consumer are much healthier than they appears just last month!

Why does this matter? Because alongside record credit card balances and various Federal Reserve estimates that all the covid excess savings had already been spent, the plunge in personal savings to a record low was the straw that many economists saw would finally break the US consumer’s back (see for example this note from Albert Edwards, available to pro subs).

And from there, the path to a self-reinforcing consumer-driven recession narrative was just a breath away.

However, now that a perfectly timed and very strategic data “revision” has come in just in time to drown out the rapidly rising recession narrative, we can pretend – if only for a few months until the election – that US consumer and households are actually quite healthy, even if said healthy is totally fabricated and the result of a mouse click… and nothing else.

So, dear Americans, even as you can barely afford to buy food, eve as you can barely afford your monthly rent, and are several months behind on your record-breaking car and home insurance, you can at least take solace in the fact that while your actual savings int he bank have never been lower, your imputed savings – according to some political appratchik in the Biden Dept of Commerce – have doubled overnight because, well, the election is just over a month from now and you can’t talk about a solid economy when you just vaporized over 800K jobs so something had to be revised dramatically higher.

It just so happened that something was the one number that is most easy to fudge and manipulate: a number which bears zero correspondence to reality, even though it may well be the most important number for US consumers – the personal savings number, arbitrarily construed by BEA beancounters – and which in no way reflects the amount of actual savings in the bank.

What it does, reflect, however is that we are about to hear a whole lot of bullshit by Kamala Harris’ puppet-masters, how the US consumer has rarely been stronger and how US personal savings – instead of being the lowest on record – are actually the highest in three years.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 15:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/8At9maM Tyler Durden

Damage Control: MSNBC’s Ruhle Says It’s “Okay” Kamala Harris Didn’t Give “Clear And Direct” Answers To Policy Questions

Damage Control: MSNBC’s Ruhle Says It’s “Okay” Kamala Harris Didn’t Give “Clear And Direct” Answers To Policy Questions

Well, the verdict appears to be in from both sides of the aisle: Kamala Harris’ solo interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle was an unmitigated disaster. 

When The New York Times comes out and leads with “In her first one-on-one cable TV interview since becoming the nominee, the vice president repeatedly dodged direct questions and stuck firmly on message,” you likely know it didn’t well.

“Since Ms. Harris began granting more interviews in recent days, her media strategy has been to sit with friendly inquisitors who are not inclined to ask terribly thorny questions or press her when her responses are evasive,” the Times even wrote. “Harris had roundabout answers to open-ended questions.”

Hours after it came out, the Wall Street Journal editorial board published an article claiming that Harris’ economic plan, which they described as “82 pages of more spending, more taxes, more regulation, more government”, is just Bidenomics II.

The interview was nothing short of a nightmare. “Gone is the day of everyone thinking they could actually live the American Dream,” Harris opened with.  

To simple questions, her answers were nothing short of word-salad non-sequiturs. “If you can’t raise corporate taxes, or if the GOP takes control of the Senate, where do you get the money to do that? Do you still go for those plans and borrow,” Ruhle asked at one point.

Harris’ response? “Well, but we’re going to have to raise corporate taxes.”

Instead of pressing her on the non-answer, Ruhle responded: “You have laid out policy in great detail.”

Talking about housing, Harris offered up the following diarrhea of the mouth: “Some of the work is going to be through what we do in terms of giving benefits and assistance to state and local governments around transit dollars, and looking holistically at the connection between that and housing.”

Continuing “…and looking holistically at the incentives we in the federal government can create for local and state governments to actually engage in planning in [a] holistic manner that includes prioritizing affordable housing for working people.”

“Kamala appears to have just learned the word ‘holistically,’” one Trump account on X wrote. 

Everybody seems to have understood that Harris’ first solo sit down interview was nothing short of a disaster. We don’t expect there will be another one before November, if the Harris campaign can swing it. 

The one person who didn’t criticize Harris? Host Steph Ruhle, who we know from her time on Bloomberg is generally smarter than that. But, maybe in hopes for another interview or perhaps in hopes for a press secretary role, Ruhle took to the air after the interview to excuse Harris’ lack of detailed answers. 

Appearing on MSNBC after the interview, Ruhle said: “One could watch and say she didn’t give a clear and direct answer. And that’s okay, because we’re not talking about clear and direct issues.”

“What I didn’t hear from her was divisive language,” Ruhle said at one point. “Imagine if I was sitting against Donald Trump, imagine the language he would be using, please! And just the fact that we were talking about collaborative inclusivity — I don’t know. Vote for her or don’t vote for her, but isn’t it great to just have a positive conversation right now?”

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 14:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/1eqCPlJ Tyler Durden

Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact

Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trump’s policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced tax collections from the tariff revenue, it ignores the impact on economic growth.

There is much rhetoric about the impact of tax cuts, mostly centering around “only benefitting the rich.” While it may seem that “the rich” are the ones who benefit, there are two important points to consider. First, the rich” already pay most of the taxes. The Tax Foundation shows that the top 10% of income earners paid 59.1% of taxesThe top 25% of income earners comprised nearly 70% of all tax revenue, with the top 50% paying 97% of all taxes.

Of course, such begs the question of those claiming the “rich should pay their fair share” what that fair share is.

Secondly, due to the complexities of the current tax code, there is a significant difference between the “statutory” tax rate and what corporations pay (the effective rate). In 2018, the effective corporate tax rate was reduced to 21%, yet at the time, the actual tax rate paid was around 14%. Today, despite no change to the statutory rate, the effective tax rate has risen to almost 17%.

Notably, changes to the statutory rate are far more symbolic than actual. However, employers experience a strong psychological impact when tax rates are changed. Increases in tax rates often lead to companies’ defensive posturing to offset the impact of higher taxes. Decreases in tax rates, while there may be very little impact on the effective rate, tend to provide economic benefits.

3 Examples The Economic Benefit Of Corporate Tax Cuts

Corporate tax rate reductions have long been a cornerstone of economic policy discussions in the United States. Proponents argue that reducing corporate taxes can stimulate investment, create jobs, and enhance the country’s global competitiveness. Critics often claim that such tax cuts primarily benefit large corporations and wealthy shareholders, with limited trickle-down effects on the broader economy. There is certainly truth in that statement. As we argued previously, corporate tax cuts often find their way into enriching corporate executives

However, this article explores the three key economic benefits of corporate tax rate reductions supported by real-world examples. Let’s begin with one of the most significant benefits: a boost to capital investment. With lower tax burdens, companies retain more profits, which can be reinvested into expanding operations, developing new technologies, and conducting research and development (R&D). These investments improve productivity, drive innovation and foster long-term economic growth.

Example 1: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

A prominent example of the relationship between corporate tax reductions and increased investment is the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The TCJA slashed the U.S. federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, creating a more favorable environment for business investment. In the aftermath, several major corporations announced significant capital investments in the U.S. economy. Following those tax cuts, capital expenditures grew until 2019 as the economy started worrying about the pandemic and the shutdown.

A good example was Apple, which committed to investing $350 billion in the U.S. over five years, with a portion of the investment attributed to the savings from the tax cuts. This included plans for a new campus, data centers, and technology infrastructure to further drive innovation in artificial intelligence and 5G technology.

Additionally, the TCJA spurred investment across various sectors, particularly in manufacturing and energy, where companies used their tax savings to modernize facilities, adopt new technologies, and expand production capacity. However, the onset of the pandemic and subsequent massive monetary interventions have obscured the longer-term effects of the tax cuts.

2. Job Creation and Wage Growth

Corporate tax cuts can also lead to job creation and wage growth. When companies reinvest their tax savings into business expansion, they often need to hire more workers to support the growth. Additionally, businesses may pass some of their tax savings to employees through higher wages, bonuses, or enhanced benefits. Again, that happened in the short run, particularly in small and mid-sized businesses. However, as noted, the pandemic-related crisis confounded the longer-term effects.

Example 2: Walmart’s Wage Increases and Bonuses

Following the TCJA’s enactment, Walmart, the largest private employer in the U.S., announced it would raise its starting wage to $11 per hour and provide bonuses of up to $1,000 to more than a million employees. While Walmart’s decision was partially driven by a competitive labor market, the company explicitly credited the tax cuts as a factor in its ability to increase wages and offer bonuses.

Walmart’s actions underscore the potential for corporate tax reductions to positively impact employees. By lowering tax liabilities, companies have greater flexibility to reward their workforce through wage increases, bonuses, or improved benefits. As discussed in “Labor Market Impact.” increased wages stimulate consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth.

Beyond individual companies, studies have shown that reductions in corporate tax rates can have a broader positive impact on wages. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a one percentage point reduction in corporate tax rates can lead to a 0.5% wage increase over the long term. This is especially true in industries where businesses are highly profitable and can pass on some of their tax savings to employees. Although the effects are often more gradual, corporate tax cuts can support wage growth across various sectors.

3. Enhanced U.S. Competitiveness in a Global Economy

In the era of globalization, corporate tax rates play a crucial role in determining a nation’s ability to attract and retain businesses. High corporate tax rates can make a country less competitive compared to others with lower tax rates, potentially driving businesses to relocate operations abroad. By reducing corporate tax rates, the U.S. can enhance its attractiveness to domestic and foreign corporations, encouraging investment and job creation within its borders.

Example 3: Repatriation of Foreign Profits After the TCJA

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act included provisions encouraging U.S. companies to repatriate overseas profits. Before the TCJA, U.S. corporations faced high taxes on foreign earnings, which led many companies to keep profits offshore rather than bringing them back to the U.S. The TCJA’s shift to a territorial tax system and a one-time tax on repatriated profits led to a significant influx of capital returning to the U.S.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. companies repatriated more than $664 billion in foreign profits in the year following the tax reform. That capital repatriation significantly boosted the U.S. economy, with many companies using the funds to pay down debt and invest in domestic operations. They also used the capital to boost stock buybacks and issue dividends. Again, as noted, while there may have been longer-term benefits, the pandemic-related crisis cut them short.

Notably, the TCJA made the U.S. a more attractive destination for business investment by aligning the corporate tax rate more closely with other developed nations. This has been particularly important in industries such as technology and pharmaceuticals, where companies weigh corporate tax rates heavily when deciding where to base their operations. For example, Pfizer, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, explicitly mentioned the positive effects of the U.S. tax reform on its global competitiveness and financial strategy.

Conclusion

Corporate tax rate reductions in the United States have delivered tangible economic benefits, including increased capital investment, job creation, wage growth, and enhanced global competitiveness. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is a key example of how reducing corporate tax rates can stimulate economic activity. Companies like Apple, Walmart, and Pfizer have used their tax savings to reinvest in the U.S. economy, create jobs, raise wages, and bolster their global standing.

While the long-term effects of corporate tax cuts continue to be debated, there is no denying that, when implemented strategically, they can positively impact the broader economy. Furthermore, following the TCJA, tax receipts increased even though tax rates declined. Such is expected if the economy benefits from tax cuts. However, as noted above, those benefits were cut short by the onset of the pandemic and confounded by the massive interventions following.

As the U.S. continues to navigate global economic challenges, corporate tax policy will remain important for encouraging business investment, job creation, and sustained economic growth.

Tax policies of the next administration will play a key role in the economy and markets going forward.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 14:00

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DOJ Indicts Three Men Over Alleged Iran Hack Of Trump Campaign

DOJ Indicts Three Men Over Alleged Iran Hack Of Trump Campaign

After rumors began to circulate that the Biden administration was colluding with Iran against Donald Trump, the DOJ unsealed criminal charges Friday against three men accused of carrying out an Iranian hack and leak attack against Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Apparently the Russians are sitting this one out.

The indictment also comes on the heels of recent headlines about Iranian assassination efforts targeting Trump, which have wiped the fact that two Democrat assassins actually went after the former president.

The charges allege that Masoud Jalili, Seyyed Ali Aghamiri, and Yasar Balaghi orchestrated a sophisticated hack-and-leak attack aimed at sowing discord and undermining confidence in the U.S. electoral process.

The operation, which allegedly began targeting email accounts associated with Trump’s campaign staff and other close contacts, was first identified by the FBI in June. An online persona named “Robert” emerged as a central figure in the campaign – contacting American reporters and offering campaign documents purported to be insider information. These documents were, according to the indictment, part of Iran’s alleged efforts to influence public opinion and electoral outcomes by leveraging stolen data, suggesting a deliberate strategy to exploit media channels for Iran’s political ends.

Of course, if there was anything actually damaging to Trump in the hack, we imagine it would have leaked through ‘proper’ channels, source be damned.

According to the indictment, the three accused men “prepared for and engaged in a wide-ranging hacking campaign” which targeted current and former US officials, political campaigns, members of the media, and others, WaPo reports.

“Such activity is part of Iran’s continuing efforts to stoke discord, erode confidence in the U.S. electoral process, and unlawfully acquire information” that could help Iran, the indictment continues.

U.S. authorities have said the person, or people, posing as Robert was acting on behalf of the Iranian government and offering news organizations data files stolen from the email accounts of Trump advisers.

Among the hacking targets was adviser Susie Wiles, one of the most senior officials on the Trump campaign. Others in Trump’s camp were also compromised, including campaign advisers, the people familiar with the investigation said. -WaPo

The indictment elaborates on the tactics used, including the creation of an “end-to-end workflow” for targeted hacking and data dissemination.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 13:40

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Gathering Storms

Gathering Storms

By Benjamin Picton, senior strategist at Rabobank

Hurricane Helene has strengthened to a to a Category 4 storm ahead of its expected landfall on the Florida gulf coast on Thursday evening. Strong wind and flash flood warnings have been issued as far up as the northern parts of Georgia, threatening cotton crops in the United States’ second-largest cotton producing state just as harvest is about 15% progressed. Pecans, avocados, citrus and peanuts are also set to be heavily impacted by the storm.

While one storm lashes the South of the United States, another storm is gathering in the Middle East. Israel continued its stepped-up bombardment of Hezbollah positions in Southern Lebanon overnight, striking approximately 220 targets according to the Israeli Defence Forces. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu poured cold water on a push from US and European officials for a 21-day ceasefire, saying that Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah “with full force” until all of its goals are met. Those goals include the return of evacuated Israeli citizens to their homes near the border with Lebanon.

In recent days, the Chief of the Israeli Defence Forces told soldiers that they would soon “enter enemy territory”, raising the prospect of a ground invasion of Lebanon. There is speculation that Netanyahu will use a Friday speech to the United Nations in New York to announce that the conflict with Hezbollah is moving into a new phase, putting pressure on Hezbollah and Iran to back down from missile strikes on Israeli territory and the Iran-sponsored Houthi blockade of the Red Sea. Netanyahu may be seeking to escalate in order to de-escalate, but raising the stakes runs a substantial risk of sparking the broad regional conflict that we have been warning of since October 7th last year as Iran and Hezbollah grow frustrated with repeated loss of face.

Despite the momentous geopolitical events occurring in the Middle East, the Bloomberg dollar spot index remains rangebound and Brent crude prices have fallen further over the past 24 hours. Brent is currently trading at $71.60/bbl, just a little above Rabo Research’s recently revised price target of $71/bbl for the fourth quarter of 2024. Crude prices weakened following news out of Saudi Arabia that the Kingdom is ready to abandon its unofficial $100/bbl price target in a bid to regain market share. Other OPEC+ producers are also set to pump more crude from early December once an agreement on short-term production cuts expires. Rabo Research now sees the crude oil market in oversupply to the tune of ~700,000 barrels/day in 2025.

A storm of a different kind may be brewing in financial markets. The Chinese Politburo yesterday followed up the PBOC’s performance of a day before by announcing new fiscal stimulus measures aimed at supporting China’s ailing real estate sector. The Politburo offered few specifics beyond a commitment to halt the sharp slide in residential real estate prices, but reports suggest that policy measures will include approximately 2 trillion Yuan of new bond issuance this year to support consumption and alleviate debt burdens at the local government level. Cynics will say that the numbers announced are inadequate to the challenge (and they are probably right), but the material point is that the central government is now sending a clear signal that this is their “whatever it takes” moment.

Interestingly, the Politburo’s plans also include limitations on the construction of new homes as the central government seeks to address oversupply in the housing stock that has contributed to falling prices. We are not talking about an expansion in the real capital stock here, but measures to ensure that fictitious capital built up over decades is not destroyed by unwelcome market forces seeking a new equilibrium. Consequently, billionaire investor David Tepper told CNBC yesterday that he is buying “everything” China.

Despite the Politburo’s announced intention to place strict limits on new development the market latched onto the broad state support theme to bid up construction-adjacent commodities like iron ore, copper and steel futures. SGX iron closed yesterday’s session up more than 2% and has rallied past through the $100/mt level in early trade this morning.

So why is this a storm? Because China has just fired the stimulus bazooka 5 minutes after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a supersized rate cut. Suddenly we are watching a rally in commodity markets (the Bloomberg Commodity Index has closed higher in 12 of the last 15 sessions) right at the moment that the Fed declared “Mission Accomplished” in the inflation fight and turned its attention instead to a softening labor market.

Inconveniently, the third read of US Q2 GDP was upgraded from 2.9% to 3% annualized yesterday, initial jobless claims printed lower than expected at +218k and durable goods orders also looked more than respectable at +0.5% M-o-M for the durables ex transportation reading versus market expectations of just +0.1%. Perhaps aggressive monetary easing (with the promise of more) while growth is still robust, unemployment is still low(ish) and the fiscal deficit is still wide (and sure to get wider) might explain why 10-year yields have risen ~15bps since the Fed cut rates back on September 18th and gold just set another all-time high?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/27/2024 – 13:20

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