Month: September 2024

Authored by J.W.Rich via The Mises Institute,

Quarantine, lockdowns, social distancing – words I’m sure everyone reading never wants to hear again. Even several years removed, the pain inflicted by Covid-19 and subsequent policy reactions is still fresh in our collective consciousness. I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to forget the whole thing, and you wouldn’t be the only one.

The authoritarians who violated your freedoms in the name of Covid safety would love for those years – and their mistakes – to be forgotten. As it happens, two of those authoritarians will be appearing together on ballots this November – Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

Kamala Harris is a familiar name to many Americans. Picked out by Biden to serve as vice president on the 2020 Democrat ticket, she has served the past three-and-a-half years as Biden’s second-in-command. Depending on the outcome of the presidential elections in November, she might even be getting a promotion. But in her capacity as VP, she has overseen the Biden administration’s increasingly tyrannical edicts in the name of stopping Covid.

In 2021, the Biden administration attempted to wield OSHA against the American people by requiring that any companies with over 100 employees require weekly testing or vaccination. Not only was the legal reasoning behind this mandate spurious, the actions being mandated had, at best, questionable efficacy in combating the “Omicron” Covid strain. Thankfully, the mandate was struck down in a 6-3 decision by the Supreme Court in 2022, but neither Biden nor anyone in his administration ever rescinded their support for the measure.

Additionally, the Biden administration took steps to censor anyone skeptical of their Covid policies by putting pressure on private companies. As revealed by the “Twitter Files,” the Biden administration would request that Twitter either ban or artificially reduce the reach of certain accounts. These included high-profile individuals, such as Robert Kennedy Jr. It was only after Elon Musk purchased Twitter that such government “requests” were disclosed to the public.

Vice President Harris has done more than look on with passive approval at the Biden administration’s actions. She has been actively involved in vaccination drives, encouraging masking, and imploring Americans to social distance. At a 2021 vaccine drive in South Carolina, Harris stated:

“So, the vaccines—let me say it again—are safe. They are safe. And they are free. And they are effective. And it is that simple.”

And, on the subject of “herd immunity”:

“If you are vaccinated, you are protected. If your community is vaccinated, Covid rates in your community will go down.”

Just a few months after these remarks, the Delta variant would crash through the United States, despite millions of Americans being vaccinated. The same would happen again in 2022, when the Omicron variant caused record-high numbers of Covid infections.

Harris also supported vaccines for children aged 5-11, despite the fact that young children are among the least likely to suffer serious complications from Covid. Even the World Health Organization would later reverse their position on child vaccination because of the marginal-to-nonexistent benefits.

In contrast to Harris, Tim Walz is an unfamiliar name to many. In 2018, Walz was elected governor of Minnesota, reelected in 2022, and is currently running with Harris for vice president. During Covid, he supported the same masking, lockdown, and social distancing policies that most governors across the country did, however, Walz’s administration was willing to go farther in these measures than many other governors.

After Walz issued a stay-at-home order to prevent the spread of Covid, he also established a “Covid hotline” where people could call and report anyone who wasn’t following the governor’s edicts. This caused no small amount of controversy within the state, but when Walz was asked about removing the hotline, he said, “We’re not going to take down a phone number that people can call to keep their families safe.”

Walz was perfectly willing to enforce his lockdown orders as well. Whenever a Lakeville restaurant tried to reopen for dine-in service, state attorney general Keith Ellison sought a restraining order to keep it closed. Gloating on the situation, Ellison said. “I’m gratified the court recognizes the severity of the pandemic and the need to take urgent action to stop the spread of Covid-19.”

In June 2020, Walz issued a mask mandate, requiring anyone in an indoor space with non-family members to wear a mask. In the official announcement of this mandate, Walz said, “But as Minnesotans always do during tough times, we come together and we take care of one another. And right now there’s no better way to demonstrate our Minnesotan values than by wearing a mask.”

We now know that almost all the measures supported by Harris and Walz were ineffective at stopping Covid. Vaccines needed boosters to maintain efficacy and had mixed results against subsequent Covid strains. The cloth masks that everyone wore for years didn’t work. The infamous six-feet of social distancing was completely arbitrary. Lockdowns had only a minimal impact on a state’s Covid performance (as Tom Woods can readily tell anyone).

But, of course, no apologies have been given and no retractions issued. As with every failure of state policy, we are expected to forget and move on. As time passes, and 2020-2022 fades in our memories, people do start to forget. Looking back on the madness of those years, it’s almost difficult to believe all of this actually happened. Not only did it happen but, if given the chance, it or similar could all happen again. The Harris/Walz ticket represents a lot of things, but foremost amongst them is the tyrannical Covid regime.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge recently ruled that Illinois’s ban on carrying guns in public transportation and in transportation facilities is unconstitutional, citing the Supreme Court’s 2022 landmark decision.

“After an exhaustive review of the parties’ filings and the historical record, as required by Supreme Court precedent, the Court finds that Defendants failed to meet their burden to show an American tradition of firearm regulation at the time of the Founding that would allow Illinois to prohibit Plaintiffs—who hold concealed-carry permits—from carrying concealed handguns for self-defense onto the CTA and Metra,” U.S. District Judge Iain D. Johnston wrote in his Aug. 30 opinion, referring to two Chicago-area transportation systems.

The judge was cited the Supreme Court’s decision, N.Y. State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, which found a New York law unconstitutional and that the ability to carry a pistol in public was a right guaranteed under the Second Amendment. The decision also said that, in future decisions, the judiciary should evaluate firearms regulations in light of the “historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

Under the Supreme Court’s 2022 standard for seeing whether firearms regulations fall under the Constitution, the government must demonstrate that the measure is within U.S. historical traditions.

Treating “any place where the government would want to protect public order and safety as a sensitive place casts too wide a net … [and] would seem to justify almost any gun restriction,” Johnston wrote.

He also rejected Illinois state attorneys’ arguments that the Bruen test did not apply in this case because the state, which owns the property, can regulate what individuals take onto its property.

“[I]ndividual rights isn’t nullified on public property,” he wrote.

Further, he added that the court found that the Second Amendment only “protects against governmental—not private—intrusion on rights and liberties.”

His ruling applies only to four named plaintiffs in the case, meaning that it did not strike down the gun ban in public transit in the state.

The lawsuit was brought by three Chicago-area residents and one individual from DeKalb County who hold concealed carry licenses, according to court papers.

The defendants in the case are Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, DeKalb County State’s Attorney Rick Amato, DuPage County State’s Attorney Robert Berlin, Cook County State’s Attorney Kimberly Foxx, and Lake County State’s Attorney Eric Rinehart.

In their 2022 filing, the plaintiffs argued that “because the public transportation carry ban prohibits persons from carrying a firearm while accessing public transportation, the ban severely restricts plaintiffs from exercising their right to self-defense outside of the home.”

“This directly violates the Second and Fourteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution as held by the U.S. Supreme Court” in the Bruen and other ruling, they wrote.

Raoul had responded earlier this year in court papers saying that the plaintiffs did not sufficiently establish that restrictions on their ability to carry firearms on public transportation infringed on their Second Amendment rights. He also argued that the law is needed to protect public safety.

“All this suit would achieve is shifting the nature of the criminal charge from one statute to another; the desired conduct would still be unlawful,” his office wrote.

The Epoch Times has contacted David Sigale, the plaintiffs’ attorney, as well as Raoul’s office for comment on the ruling. It’s not clear whether Raoul, Foxx, or the other defendants are planning an appeal of Johnston’s decision.

Over the past few years, several legal challenges have been filed against Illinois’ gun laws, including a law that was signed by Gov. JB Pritzker in January 2023 that banned what he describes as “assault weapons” such as AR-15-style rifles and a number of other semiautomatic firearms. In July, the Supreme Court decided not to take up a challenge to the law.

And now Ukraine’s top diplomat is out, amid an ongoing major Zelensky shake-up of his cabinet – the biggest of the war. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, one of the country’s most recognized faces after two-and-a-half years of war, has resigned Wednesday. This comes after the night prior six top officials, including several ministers, were also forced out. Some, however, are expected to take up other government positions.

David Arakhamia, who is head of the ruling Servant of the People group in parliament, wrote on Telegram: “As promised, a major reboot of the government can be expected this week.” He identified that Wednesday would be “the day of lay-offs, and the day after . . . the day of appointments.”

“Kuleba, 43, didn’t give a reason for stepping down. His resignation will be discussed by lawmakers at their next session, parliamentary Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk said on his Facebook page,” Associated Press writes.

Lawmakers said that Kuleba submitted to parliament a handwritten letter dated Sept.4 which asked the body to “accept my resignation from the post of the minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine.”

Kuleba was instrumental in helping to line up record-setting defense aid and deliveries of foreign arms for Kiev, including lobbying Washington last year to receive Patriot missiles. He’s also been seen as key in getting the West to greenlight missile strikes inside Russian territory and has of late been arguing that restrictions on long-range systems should be removed.

This brings to the number to at least seven Ukrainian officials, including several ministers, who have now resigned amid the broad cabinet reshuffle. President Zelensky has said this is part of an effort to “give new strength” to Ukraine’s institutions.

“Autumn will be extremely important for Ukraine. And our state institutions must be set up in such a way that Ukraine will achieve all the results we need — for all of us,” Zelensky in a Tuesday night address to the nation. “To do this, we need to strengthen some areas in the government — and personnel decisions have been prepared.”

He said even after the large-scale resignations there are more changes or turnover soon to come within his cabinet and that “certain areas of our foreign and domestic policies will have a slightly different emphasis.”

The below list includes Tuesday nights resignations which had preceded Kuleba’s stepping down by a matter of hours:

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration

Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy prime minister for the reintegration of temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine

Oleksandr Kamyshin, the minister of strategic industries

Denys Malyuska, who was Zelensky’s justice minister

Ruslan Strilets, minister of environmental protection and natural resources

Vitaliy Koval, head of the state property fund

Ukraine officials have strongly hinted that more resignations are expected to come. Some of the above are likely to stay on in government, in other positions.

Some pundits are viewing Kuleba’s sacking as part of a downward and bleak turn for Kiev as the war tide is against it…

Breaking: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba was forced to resign days after he admitted that Ukraine is losing the war and that the West is to blame for it. The Zelenskyy regime is on its last breath. pic.twitter.com/C86zaUFqvO

— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) September 4, 2024

Given all of this, as defeat draws near and now looks inevitable for Ukraine forces in Donetsk, it is very possible these significant government changes could be coming as directives from Washington and London. Could this major reshuffle and cabinet ‘reform’ be a Western condition for more immediate military support? Zelensky could also be desperately trying to stave off an expected instability in his government by trying to preempt deep criticism over this decision-making, particularly when it comes to the Kursk offensive and serious manpower problems.

Last month, after the latest JOLTS report came in fractionally stronger than expected as the Kamala Department of Labor engaged in its usual data manipulation, this time by artificially inflating the number of government sector job openings, we made one prediction: expect a big drop in the next job openings report as the recent surge in government job openings quietly disappears.

Expect big drop in JOLTS job openings as last month’s surge in government job openings is revised away https://t.co/0SkQxgdckL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 30, 2024

That’s precisely what happened because moments ago, the DOL reported that in July the number of job openings plunged sharply to 7.673 Million – the lowest since January 2021 – from a prior month unrevised June print of 8.184 Million…

… which of course was revised sharply lower to 7.910 Million, which also means that what was originally reported to be a beat to estimates of an 8.00 million print has since been revised  to a miss of 7.910 million… but of course one month later nobody cares. Which is precisely how the Biden labor department has been operating all along.

In any case, since Wall Street was expecting was a much higher number based on the unrevised print, today’s miss was massive, and it printed below the lowest estimate….

… and was a 4-sigma miss to the median estimate of 8.100 million, a whopping 427K miss in absolute terms. As shown in the next chart, this was the 4th miss in the past 5 months.

As for the driver behind the last months of manipulated JOLTS “beats”, which as we showed was the artificially inflated number of government sector job openings, they did – as expected – tumble, from 1.016 million to 924K, while private sector job openings hit a fresh 3.5 year low.

As an aside, keep an eye on construction jobs: the number of job openings in this sector is in absolute freefall, plunging to levels not seen since late 2020.

And here is what may be the most shocking chart of the year: construction jobs openings vs construction jobs. Expect nothing less than an epic implosion of construction jobs in the coming months.

Ignoring the data manipulation, in the context of the broader jobs report, in June the number of job openings was just 510K more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.163 million), down from last month’s 1.373 million and the lowest since April 2021.

Said otherwise, in July the number of job openings to unemployed dropped to just 1.07, a plunge from the June print of 1.16, the lowest level since May 2021 and now officially below pre-covid levels.

While the job openings data set was a disaster no matter how one looks at it, there was silver lining as hiring finally staged a modest rebound after last month’s collapse…

… with quits also rising modestly from the lowest level since mid-2020.

Finally, no matter what the “data” shows, let’s not forget that it is all just estimated, and it is safe to say that the real number of job openings remains still far lower since half of it – or some 70% to be specific – is guesswork. As the BLS itself admits, while the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate remains near a record low 33%

In other words, more than two thirds, or 70% of the final number of job openings, is made up!

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

As discussed in the Fog of War, we are starting to get some economic data. The market did not like yesterday’s data, where ISM Manufacturing was weak, but it really didn’t like the mix – employment and new orders components were below 50, with prices paid beating 50. JOLTS and durable goods will be interesting today, along with the Beige Book which might give an inkling into what the Fed sees region by region and how they might vote for rates at the September meeting.

Away from that I’m watching Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ETFs closely as well as NVDL.

I’m watching NVDL as it seems an obvious example of “retail” froth. The need to own a single company stock in a daily leveraged vehicle seems bizarre to me. You can add in a bunch of the VIX ETP’s that have also seen some strong inflows into the “froth” bucket.

The FBI/IC3 warned about North Korea Aggressively Targeting the Crypto Industry. They mention the Bitcoin ETFs in the report. The so-called “spot” ETFs “own” crypto to support the value of the fund (similar to how a stock or bond or even futures based ETF owns stocks or bonds or futures). But I don’t worry about the holdings of a “traditional” ETF getting hacked or stolen or lost. Do we need to worry about that for a crypto based ETF?

While I don’t pay a lot of attention to Bitcoin on a daily basis, but with a total market capitalization of over $1 trillion it is significant and the rise from $30,000 last autumn to above $55,000 has likely helped support a lot of consumption here and abroad. Is that at risk?

The “halving” was supposed to be a big support for bitcoin (though I’m not sure why getting paid ½ of what you used to do, for roughly the same work was supposed to for miners, especially if you don’t get the necessary “inflation”) but so far that hasn’t helped.

Many would argue that geopolitical risk should be good for bitcoin and there is no shortage of geopolitical risk (add Turkey wanting to join the BRICS to the list). We have seen from time to time what seemed like potentially “bad actors” selling into times of crisis as they wanted to raise the “fiat” to spend. Could that be happening here as well?

Bitcoin isn’t high on my list of worries for the economy, but it has made it to my list of things to keep an eye on.

Just days after Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris publicly opposed Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for US Steel, the CEO of the Pittsburgh-based steel giant told the Wall Street Journal that the company would be forced to relocate its headquarters and shut down steel mills if the deal falls through.

CEO David Burritt told WSJ that Japan’s Nippon plans to invest $3 billion in the company’s older mills, ensuring the plants remain competitive in domestic and global markets. The investment will also secure the jobs of thousands of steelworkers.

“We wouldn’t do that [upgrade plants] if the deal falls through,” Burritt said in an interview, adding that US Steel doesn’t have the money to afford upgrades.

The timing of Burritt’s comments comes days after VP Harris said in a speech on Monday that she opposes Nippon’s deal to purchase US steel, arguing that the Pittsburgh steelmaker “should remain American-owned and American-operated.”

Since the deal was first announced in December following a multi-month bidding process, CEO Burritt has mostly refrained from making public statements. In the interview, he said Nippon would bring much-needed investment and the latest steelmaking technology to older mills in Gary, Ind., and its Mon Valley Works near Pittsburgh. He called the mounting opposition to the deal highly “puzzling and confusing.”

Spending on mill maintenance and equipment upgrades was deferred over the last decade because US Steel was losing money as it struggled with elevated costs and low steel prices. Higher steel prices in recent years have helped restore profits despite some Wall Street analysts forecasting dismal demand in the quarters ahead amid recession threats.

US Steel owns two modern steel mills in Arkansas near Osceola in Mississippi County. Without investment from Nippon, the company could shutter Mon Valley, the company’s last steelmaking operation in Pittsburgh. 

“If that mill won’t make it to the next decade, why would we stay there?” Burritt said, adding more of its steelmaking capacity is shifting to the southern part of the US, and with that, so could the headquarters. 

Besides VP Harris and President Biden, former President Trump has also vowed to block the deal if re-elected. Both candidates are fighting for the votes of Pennsylvania steelworkers and blue-collar folks in this crucial battleground state. 

Shares of Dollar Tree plunged nearly 12% in premarket trading in New York after the discount retailer, which operates thousands of stores nationwide, posted fiscal second-quarter earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company also slashed its full-year outlook, pointing to mounting financial pressures on middle-income and higher-income customers. This comes less than a week after major rival Dollar General reported a “financially constrained core customer” that sent shares crashing the most on record.

Dollar Tree reported this morning that the macroeconomic environment is pressuring its middle—and higher-income consumers. Traffic increased during the quarter, but the average ticket size decreased. It said second-quarter comparable sales and adjusted earnings per share missed Wall Street’s expectations. 

Here’s a snapshot of second-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Adjusted EPS 67c vs. 91c y/y, estimate $1.05
• EPS 62c vs. 91c y/y

Enterprise comparable sales +0.7% vs. +6.9% y/y, estimate +1.45%

• Family Dollar comparable sales -0.1%, estimate -0.21%
• Dollar Tree Segment comparable sales +1.3% vs. +7.8% y/y, estimate +2.89%

Net sales $7.37 billion, +0.7% y/y

• Dollar Tree net sales $4.07 billion, +5% y/y, estimate $4.16 billion
• Family Dollar net sales $3.31 billion, -4% y/y, estimate $3.35 billion

Gross profit margin 30% vs. 29.2% y/y, estimate 29.9%

• Dollar Tree gross margin 34.2% vs. 33.4% y/y, estimate 34.1%
• Family Dollar gross margin 24.9%, estimate 24.6%

Total location count 16,388, -0.5% y/y, estimate 16,374

• Dollar Tree Locations 8,627, +5.5% y/y, estimate 8,294
• Family Dollar locations 7,761, -6.5% y/y, estimate 8,071

With nearly 16,400 stores nationwide, the discount retailer now expects its full-year consolidated net sales outlook between $30.6 billion and $30.9 billion versus the previous forecast of $31 billion to $32 billion. 

• Sees net sales of $30.6 billion to $30.9 billion, saw $31.0 billion to $32.0 billion
• Sees adjusted EPS $5.20 to $5.60, estimate $6.57 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Davis wrote in a statement that the “increasing effect of macro pressures on the purchasing behavior of Dollar Tree’s middle- and higher-income customers” was the main driver in slashing its full-year sales forecast. 

Here’s Goldman’s Eric Mihelc and Scott Feiler’s take on Dollar Tree earnings:

“DLTR -13%…Low bar post DG results but the 20% guidance cut is worse than expected (a cut was expected but most we had heard from were not this low). Also, they spoke to weakness spreading to their middle and higher income (it’s all relative) customers.  Details: 2Q EPS of $0.97 vs Consensus $1.04, with revenues 160 bps light. Comps of +0.7% vs Consensus +1.6%. Dollar Tree brand drove the comp miss. SG&A also missed by 200 bps. They spoke to the increasing effect of macro pressures on the purchasing behavior of Dollar Tree’s middle- and higher-income customers. Guides 3Q EOS light at $1.10 (mid) vs Consensus $1.32 and revenues 1% light. Lowers 2024 EPS to $5.40 (mid) vs prior $6.75, a 20% cut, on a revenue cut as well.” 

What’s critical to note for the political strategist: Dollar Tree & Family Dollar and Dollar General stores are mostly concentrated in the eastern half of the US. Mangment’s gloom about its core customer base should serve as a proxy for consumer sentiment for mid/low-tier consumers. In other words, there is a lot of gloom and doom among working-poor Americans in critical swing states.

Last week, Dollar General shares crashed the most on record after management warned that core customers “feel financially constrained.”

*DOLLAR GENERAL SINKS 26% IN RECORD DROP ON SALES OUTLOOK CUT https://t.co/wZXRITf098

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 29, 2024

DG’s stores are primarily based in the eastern half of the US. Again, this should serve as a proxy for consumer sentiment.

In markets, shares of Dollar Tree in New York plunged 12%. 

Is the slide in Dollar Tree and Dollar General shares a signal for broader main equity indexes?

Meanwhile, both discount retailers are facing heightened competition from Aldi and Walmart as corporate America fights over the market share of the middle class that is imploding under Bidenomics. 

While Hungary may have already ended its rate cuts as prices surge and the currency tumbles, becoming the first central bank this cycle to prematurely end its easing cycle, other central banks have a ways to go before they get there, and moments ago the Bank of Canada cuts its overnight lending rate by 25bps for the 3rd consecutive time, as all economists expected, and citing continued easing in inflationary pressures.

A redline of the latest two statements shows the bank’s reasoning for the continued rate cuts:

Commenting on the decision, BOC Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated that “it’s reasonable to expect further cuts” and that policymakers continue to assess the tension between economic weakness, which is putting downward pressure on inflation, and high costs for shelter and some services, which are keeping it elevated.

Still, realizing that it’s only a matter of time before the BOC pulls off its own Burds Fed, Macklem says inflation may bump up later in the year as base-year effects unwind, and there is a risk that the upward forces on inflation could be stronger than expected, at which point the central bank would of course be forced to abandon its easing campaign, hike rates and also lose all credibility.

“Overall weakness in the economy continues to pull inflation down. But price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up” the governor warned adding that “recent indicators suggest there is some downside risk to this pickup.”

“At the same time, with inflation getting closer to the target, we need to increasingly guard against the risk that the economy is too weak and inflation falls too much.”

Still, for now the most likely course is more rate cuts, even if that only assures more inflation down the road: “If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with our July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate. We will continue to assess the opposing forces on inflation, and take our monetary policy’ decisions one at a time”, Macklem said adding that “as inflation gets closer to target, we want to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy so inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target.”

Some more observations from the central bank:

INFLATION:

• Excess supply in economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up.
• Governing council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation.
• High shelter price inflation is still biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow.

ECONOMY:

• Preliminary indicators suggest economic activity was soft through June and July.

FX:

• Canadian Dollar has appreciated modestly, largely reflecting a lower USD and oil prices are lower than assumed in July monetary policy report.

LABOR MARKET:

• Canadian labour market continues to slow but wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity.

While the decision was widely expected, the USDCAD dropped to session lows after the announcement:

100% of the time, Reuters’ oil market manipulation – on behalf of various unnamed deep tate interests – works 100% of the time.

Last Friday morning, just as Brent crude was threatening to extend gains above $80, forcing oil CTAs and other momentum-chasers to close out their near record net short positioning…

… Reuters did what it has done so many times before, and published an oil market manipulating report, designed to crush the price of oil and reverse upward momentum to snuff out the risk of an accelerating short squeeze. As we reported at the time, and with oil just barely above 2024 lows, Reuters cited “six sources who wish to remain anonymous” that OPEC+ is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, because “Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand” which – as we said – is idiocy as the only thing that matters for oil prices – a bump in Chinese demand – is missing.

Predictably, oil tumbled instantly – a reaction that was naturally welcome by the deep state forces propping up the puppet presidential candidate known as Kamala Harris as it meant even lower gas prices, and  which angered us because as we explained:

… according to Reuters, six OPEC+ sources – who almost certainly are being spoonfed what to tell Reuters by the Deep State which is scrambling to keep gas prices as low as possible ahead of the elections – the plan to increase production remains in place as the loss of Libyan output tightens the market and hopes build that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in mid-September. Which, again, is absolute idiocy, and we expect that OPEC+ will issue an official denial within minutes, especially since Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman previously said OPEC+ could pause or reverse the production hikes if it decides the market is not strong enough, which it clearly is not right now.

Well, we were wrong: it wasn’t minutes, it was a few days… but what is so ridiculous that not even we anticipated that none other than Reuters would report the reversal, discrediting its own credibility but cementing its ability to manipulate the price of oil at will because there are still HFT algos that buy whatever bullshit Reuters has to “report.”

This morning, just 4 days after Reuters reported precisely the opposite, the news wire shocked – and we use the term “shocked” very loosely, because it is precisely what we said would happen –  us with the following…

OPEC+ is discussing a delay in a planned output increase next month as oil prices hit their lowest in 9 months, three sources from the producer group told Reuters on Wednesday.

And one wonders why oil prices hit their lowest in 9 months. Would it have something to do with Reuters own reporting guaranteeing that oil prices would hit 9 month lows?

It gets funnier: just as we said, that the Reuters “report” would guarantee a denial from OPEC+ that it was set to restore output, Reuters reported precisely that:

Last week, the group looked set to proceed with a 180,000 barrel per day (bpd) hike in October, but market volatility from oil facility shutdowns in Libya and a weak demand outlook have raised concern within the group, one of the sources said.

Would it be the same source that spoonfed Reuters the fake news that sparked the oil rout, allowing said source to then quickly load up on oil at a 5% discounted price? And the punchline:

There were suggestions to delay the increase, one of the sources said. Another said a delay was looking highly possible.

Of course, any credible media organization would – or rather should – have considered all of this when it reported Friday’s market manipulating garbage, but of course it’s Reuters, which makes money from sparking volatility in the commodity world, even if it is then forced to refute its own reporting.

So to summarize, what a difference 5 days makes.

To summarize: we are now back to where we were before Reuters’ Friday fake news report, but with momentum now crushed, oil is trading at the lowest price of the year, assuring even lower gas prices – however briefly before we hit tank bottoms – ahead of the election, just as the deep state ordered it…

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We have previously discussed (here and here and here and here) the push for reparations in California that has been touted by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats for years. After the Democrats campaigned on the issue in past elections, I wrote a column about how this bill had come due after years of delay for study and recommendations.

The legislature, however, just stamped the bill “return to sender” and shelved the two reparations bills with the reported support of Newsom.

The reaction is not surprising that there has been a bait-and-switch by Democrats on the issue.

Last week, the California legislature did approve proposals allowing for the return of land or compensation to families whose property was unjustly seized by the government, and issuing a formal apology for laws and practices that have harmed Black people. However, the two bills to establish a fund for reparation payments – Senate Bills 1403 and 1331 – were tabled.

State Sen. Steven Bradford blamed Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom for the result, stating that the governor made clear that he would veto them.

Newsom signed a $297.9 billion budget in June that included up to $12 million for reparations legislation. However, that is a drop in the bucket given the billions demanded and it is not clear how the money will be spent.

Adding to the anger is the fact that the legislature approved a bill to allow undocumented persons to receive no-interest loans of up to $150,000 to cover down payments on new homes.

It is now unclear what will happen next, though sponsors are saying that they will continue to push for legislation green lighting reparation payments.

Some congressional Democrats have pushed for similar federal reparations and passed a bill out of the House Judiciary Committee in 2021 that failed to receive a floor vote.

BET founder Robert Johnson has called for $14 trillion in federal reparations.

As discussed earlier, there are a host of legal and practical questions over the reparation payments that will have to be resolved. Even with passage, the bills would likely face constitutional challenges.