Models Show Caribbean Disturbance Threatens US Gulf Energy Complex 

With the news cycle dominated by election coverage, let’s shift gears and focus on developing tropical activity in the southwestern Caribbean. Forecast models are already showing a potential landfall along the US Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has designated the weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean as Invest97L.

“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea,” NHC wrote in a Sunday morning update. 

NHC noted, “Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.” 

Invest97L’s formation odds are very high for the next couple of days:

• Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.

Computer forecast models show the storm will likely be organized in the coming days and will track northwest over Cuba, potentially making landfall across the US Gulf Coast.

“There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross wrote in a note. 

Norcross said, “A dense plume of tropical moisture is forecast to rotate north with the potential storm. This will enhance the flooding threat on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico beginning Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek.”

The potential impact area is home to major offshore oil/gas platforms across the Gulf Coast and about 60% of the US refining capacity. 

The track and intensity of Invest97L are still subject to change and should be monitored into the new week.